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Military And Security Developments
Mar 07.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• DONETSK: The tempo of Russian advances west of Avdiivka has seemingly slowed in recent days, though air strikes remain intense
• STRIKES: A Russian missile struck Odesa within 500m of the visiting Greek prime minister; while this is highly unlikely to have been a deliberate attempt to target the foreign leader, the incident reflects the ongoing collateral risks
• WAR GOALS: The former Russian president outlined his vision for Russia’s ‘geographic and strategic’ borders in Ukraine, underscoring Moscow’s maximalist objectives to make further territorial conquests
• FORECAST: Ukraine’s new Ground Forces Commander stated that Ukrainian forces will attempt to stabilise the frontline, to regain the initiative and to launch new counter-offensive ‘actions’ in 2024
• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
• DONETSK: On 5 March, a Russian milblogger reported that the tempo of Russian assaults has decreased around Avdiivka. He pointed to a lack of drone and electronic warfare (EW) co-ordination; Russian EW systems are apparently interfering with drone operations in the sector. In recent days, engagements have primarily involved positional fighting, though footage from 6 March shows that Russian forces made limited gains in Heorhiivka, a settlement located to the north-west of Marinka. Additional footage shows Russian troops progressing south of Novomykhailivka (located to the south-west of Donetsk city).
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage posted on 5 March indicates that Russian forces made advances in the northern outskirts of Synkivka, which is located around five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. Overall, operations remain on trend along the Oskil-Kreminna frontline; fighting in this sector is mostly positional.
• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 6 March indicates that Russian forces are continuing to advance slowly along the southern Zaporizhzhia axis, reversing the gains made by Ukraine during its 2023 counter-offensive. Russian forces have been able to advance further near Robotyne and Verbove (both Zaporizhzhia oblast); the latter is located around six miles (10km) to the east of Robotyne. In addition, Russian sources have reported in recent days that Ukrainian forces have deployed further reserves to the area. They also report that Ukrainian forces have been conducting limited counter-attacks; we assess these are likely aimed at containing and delaying Russian advances. Russian sources have also reported on a widespread lack of drone, counter-battery and EW capabilities along this section of the frontline; we assess this will constrain their ability to make rapid advances.
• STRIKES: Early on 5 March, Ukraine’s air defences intercepted 18 of 22 Russian-launched Shahed-136/131 drones over Odesa oblast. The local authorities reported that several residential buildings in the region sustained damage.
• STRIKES: On the morning of 6 March, Russian forces launched five S-300 guided missiles and 42 Shahed-136/131 drones; reports indicate that one missile landed around 0.3 miles (500m) from Greek Prime Minster Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who were visiting Odesa oblast at the time. Ukrainian air defences destroyed 38 drones over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts. However, the Ukrainian military has since stated that the Greek and Ukrainian officials were not the targets of the strike against Odesa; we assess that this is highly likely to be the case. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that it intended to strike a hangar housing naval drones that Kyiv was preparing for a combat deployment. We do not assess that Russian forces are willing to target visiting foreign dignitaries or heads of state. Nevertheless, Mitsotakis’ near miss underscores the ongoing bystander and collateral risks facing all those who visit Ukraine.
• STRIKES: Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) stated that its special unit Group 13 destroyed the Russian patrol vessel Sergei Kotov near the Kerch Strait overnight on 4-5 March. The GUR explained that the attack involved a Ukrainian-made Magura V5 sea drone and that Russian forces were planning to install an anti-aircraft system on the vessel. The Sergei Kotov, which was reportedly also previously hit in September 2023, is a project 22160 large patrol vessel that entered service in January 2021. As such, it is one of the most modern surface vessels in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF). Following the attack, a Ukrainian naval forces spokesperson stated that Kyiv has successfully destroyed around a third of Russia’s BSF warships. Ukraine’s growing strike capabilities have seriously degraded Russia’s naval assets in the Black Sea; they have also undermined the BSF’s ability to block Ukrainian ports.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• AID: Bloomberg reported on 6 March that Ukraine’s allies have nearly accrued the required funding for a Czech Republic-led initiative to purchase artillery shells for Kyiv from non-EU sources. Those familiar with the matter stated that the rounds (around 800,000) will possibly be delivered to Ukraine in a matter of weeks (if the purchase is successful). However, the precise timing would depend on contractual and delivery schedules. According to the outlet, EU defence and foreign ministers are expected to discuss the matter this week in order to finetune the details of the initiative. Bloomberg reports that Ukraine needs at least 200,000 rounds a month; as such, we assess that the successful delivery of the ammunition would moderately bolster Ukrainian firepower in the coming weeks, easing the pressure on Kyiv’s defences.
• AID: The administration of US President Joe Biden is reportedly considering whether it can use around USD 200m in US army funds to aid Ukraine. Bloomberg reported on 6 March that while a final decision has not yet been made, the funding could be utilised to pay for critical weapons, supplies and other equipment. CNN reported in late February that the Pentagon is assessing whether to use some of its last remaining funding to aid Ukraine militarily (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 29 February 2024). This funding will possibly (and modestly) mitigate against materiel shortages in the near term if mobilised for Ukraine. Meanwhile, around USD 61bn of aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress.
• NUCLEAR: Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, on 6 March in Sochi (Krasnodar Krai, Russia). Grossi revealed that they discussed the safety and security of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). We continue to assess that a major nuclear incident at the facility is highly unlikely in the coming months. Nevertheless, Russia will highly likely use Grossi’s visit as part of an information operation campaign to portray Moscow as being committed to ensuring the safety of the ZNPP.
• WAR GOALS: On 4 March, Deputy Chairperson of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, delivered a speech that focused on Russia’s ‘geographic and strategic’ borders at a Kremlin-organised event. Medvedev argued that Ukraine is ‘definitely’ Russia, insisting that historic parts of Ukraine need to ‘return’ to Russian control. The former president claimed that Ukrainian territory situated on both sides of the Dnieper River are an ‘integral’ part of Russia. Medvedev stood behind a map showing the entire eastern (left) bank of the river and southern Ukraine under Russian control. Meanwhile, western regions of Ukraine were shown as belonging to Hungary, Poland and Romania; the map depicted Ukraine as existing only within the borders of Kyiv oblast.
• WAR GOALS: Medvedev’s ‘lecture’ underscores that Russia maintains maximalist territorial objectives and that it seeks to revise Ukraine’s borders – including those in western Ukraine. Medvedev claimed that Russia does not seek Ukraine’s resources; rather, he insisted that Moscow believes ‘people’ are the main wealth in Ukraine. Medvedev emphasised that Ukrainians are ‘essentially family’ for Russians, indicating that Russian officials are still attempting to push the narrative that Russians and Ukrainians are one people and that an independent Ukrainian nation or identity does not exist. Ultimately, Medvedev’s statements are the latest indication that Russia highly likely maintains maximalist war goals in Ukraine, and that it is therefore unwilling and unlikely to enter into any negotiations; we assess that it will continue the war indefinitely to secure further territorial conquests.
FORECAST
OFFENSIVES: On 6 March, Ukraine’s new Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated that Ukrainian forces will attempt to stabilise the frontline, to regain the initiative and to launch new counter-offensive ‘actions’ in 2024. Pavlyuk stated that Ukraine will aim to rotate units to the rear in order to reconstitute its forces and to create a new grouping of forces that would conduct unspecified counter-offensive tasks this year. Although Russia retains the battlefield initiative, Pavlyuk predicts that Ukraine will be able to stabilise the frontline in the near future. The rate of Russian advances west of Avdiivka has already started to slow in recent days; this possibly indicates slowing Russian momentum.
It is unclear when or where such counter-offensive actions will take place, though it remains in Ukraine’s interests not to disclose any details so that it can manage expectations domestically and abroad. Nevertheless, to avoid unsustainable casualties and to recognise the reality of its limited resources, we assess that Ukraine is likely to prioritise defensive operations for the majority of 2024. Limited counter-offensive actions will likely be primarily aimed at creating and exploiting Russian weaknesses, rather than orchestrating a major counter-offensive akin to the 2023 operation. In the short-to-medium term, continued delays to Western equipment transfers will limit the scope for any sizeable counter-offensive operations given Kyiv’s need to ration artillery shells.
The first visually confirmed loss of a US-provided Ukrainian HIMARS system on 6 March possibly reflects wider concerns over Ukrainian air defence shortages; these concerns will further constrain Ukrainian military operations in the short term. Russian forces are likely to continue exploiting this apparent vulnerability, as illustrated by the consistently high tempo of glide bomb attacks across the eastern frontline. On 4 March, Forbes reported that Russian jets are conducting over one hundred such sorties a day; they are reportedly targeting Ukrainian positions from a range of 25 miles (40km). Recent Russian losses of Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft appear not to have deterred the continuation of these attacks.
Mar 05.
*Moldova: Early parliamentary elections are unlikely, despite pro-Russia referendum threat. On 4 March, the leader of the pro-Russia Our Party (PN) Renato Usatîi appealed to Moldovan President Maia Sandu and the parliament to organise a referendum on holding early parliamentary elections. Moldova is due to hold a presidential vote this autumn, with the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025. Usatîi demanded that the authorities respond to his request by 8 March, or he will seek to collect 100,000 signatures to hold a republican referendum on the matter. The request is highly likely aimed at pressuring Sandu and the pro-EU ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). According to polling from iData in January, 25.5% of respondents would vote for PAS in parliamentary elections; just 2.1% would vote for PN. As such, Usatîi is highly unlikely to succeed in pressuring the Sandu administration to hold a referendum on the matter; he would possibly also fail to gain 100,000 signatures.
Mar 04.
*Germany: Successful Russian information operation will possibly limit NATO intelligence sharing. On 1 March, details of a meeting between senior German military personnel about the feasibility of sending Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine were published in the Russian press. The recording included sensitive information about funding, potential targets and the deployment of NATO soldiers in Ukraine. The successful information operation by Russia raises questions about the effectiveness and security of Germany’s military and government communications. These concerns were already high after Chancellor Olaf Scholz indirectly confirmed that British and French soldiers are helping to operate those countries’ respective Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missile systems in Ukraine. The leak will likely drive diplomatic tensions between Germany and other NATO members and damage Germany’s reputation as a reliable defence and intelligence partner. Given the extensive Russian intelligence networks currently operating in the country, we assess that the development will possibly impact the intelligence Germany receives from its allies; Germany is highly reliant on this intelligence to counter domestic and foreign threats.
*Moldova-Russia: Moscow will use regional leader’s ‘support’ request for destabilisation efforts. On 1 March, the governor of Moldova’s autonomous Gagauzia region, Evgenia Guțul, met the chairperson of Russia’s upper house of parliament (the Federation Council), Valentina Matvienko, and asked Moscow for ‘support’. Guțul claimed that the pro-West central Moldovan authorities are oppressing the rights of the region’s residents. Matvienko stated that Russia’s Federation Council is ready to provide ‘all possible assistance’ and to strengthen Russia-Gagauzia ties. On 28 February, Moldova’s pro-Russia breakaway region of Transnistria appealed to Russia for ‘protection’ against perceived pressure from Chișinău during a rarely convened congress (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 27 February 2024). Guțul’s visit was likely intended to pressure the pro-West Moldovan authorities further amid concerns of Russian destabilisation efforts within Moldova. We assess that Moscow will highly likely utilise such engagement from pro-Russia Moldovan regions to polarise Moldovan society and to subvert the government in Chișinău ahead of Moldova’s presidential election this autumn.
*Tajikistan: Strained electrical infrastructure will likely sustain long-term energy security risks. On 1 March, various regions of Tajikistan, including the capital Dushanbe, experienced electricity outages for several hours. Officials claimed that technical malfunctions at the Nurek hydroelectric power plant, which supplies 50% of the country’s needs, caused the outages. The latest outages impacted regions such as Dushanbe and the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, which are traditionally unaffected by such issues. In Dushanbe, the outages reportedly also disrupted internet services. The return of cold weather conditions, including subzero temperatures, has resulted in a sharp increase in electricity consumption, straining the country’s antiquated energy system. Given that the cold weather is expected to persist in the coming days, we assess that further power outages are likely. The latest widespread outages underscore a deterioration of Tajikistan’s electrical infrastructure, which will sustain long-term energy security risks with knock-on effects on the country’s socio-economic health, including reliable access to internet services. (Source: Sibylline)
08 Mar 24. French defence companies will repair and manufacture military equipment locally in Ukraine as Paris seeks to rally western allies to do more to help local forces to push back the Russian full-scale invasion. “We are not at the maximum level of what we can do in Ukraine,” said defence minister Sébastien Lecornu in an interview on French radio RMC. “Three French companies will be setting up partnerships with Ukrainian companies, in particular in the drone and land equipment sectors, to produce spare parts on Ukrainian soil, and perhaps ammunition in the future”, he said, adding that the first production could begin by this summer. The companies involved are KNDS, a joint-venture of France’s state-owned Nexter and Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann that makes munitions, the Caesar howitzer, and combat vehicles; Arquus, a military vehicle maker and supplier of chassis; and drone maker Delair. Lecornu also announced that France had ordered 200 surface-to-air Aster missiles from European manufacturer MBDA, and that some could be sent to Ukraine. The French move is part of a broader push among European defence companies to start shifting some production, repair or maintenance functions into Ukraine as the war drags on into a third year and shortages of ammunition hamper Ukrainian soldiers’ ability to fight. In September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hosted a conference in Kyiv in a bid to attract companies, and several of them have been holding discussions with local partners since then. Düsseldorf-based Rheinmetall, which has seen demand soar for its 155mm artillery shells that are standard in western howitzers, plans to manufacture both munitions and later tanks in Ukraine together with Kyiv-owned defence contractors. At the Munich Security Conference in February, chief executive Armin Papperger said the company aimed eventually to produce a six-digit number of 155mm calibre bullets per year in Ukraine with a local joint venture partner, without specifying the timing. The company’s joint venture with Kyiv-owned Ukroboronprom has already begun to repair military vehicles locally — both Leopards and Panthers donated by the west as well as old Soviet models — returned from the front line. Czechoslovak Group, which makes ammunition and other military equipment, is also looking to sign some production joint venture agreements in Ukraine. BAE Systems said in September that it was exploring options to work with local partners in Ukraine to produce spare parts for its light artillery. Ukraine has said it needs more ammunition and long-range missiles to push back Russian attacks and liberate its territory, and its foreign minister warned in an article in Le Monde that shortages were hampering its ability to fight. President Emmanuel Macron has in recent weeks been trying to spur European backers of Ukraine to step up their aid to Kyiv and consider new forms of support, arguing that Russia was getting more aggressive and that US support was not a given. “We are without doubt facing a time in Europe when we cannot be cowardly,” he said in a recent speech in Prague. But Macron sparked a backlash last month when he said sending western troops to Ukraine could “not be ruled out”, an idea promptly rejected by many Nato allies and which provoked a strong reaction in Germany. Sending civilian workers from western defence companies to Ukraine could also carry some risk. Arquus already has sent staff to Ukraine to repair and maintain the roughly 250 armoured personnel carriers that France has donated to Ukraine, and train Ukrainians to carry out those functions. It is also working on a plan to produce replacement parts locally. “The framework contract was signed with a Ukrainian partner about 10 days ago, so we are entering into the operational phase,” said Arquus. Nexter, the French part of KNDS, said it had been in discussions to find a local partner since September to “bring maintenance and eventually production” closer to the front lines. A person close to the company said it would “take a few weeks to figure out what is doable” and added that the French government has asked them to support Ukraine locally. “There’s a symbolic aspect to it, but it also has to be competitive,” the person said, adding that KNDS already had operations nearby in Lithuania and Romania. (Source: FT.com)
07 Mar 24. Ukraine MoD reforms procurement in line with Nato standards. To eliminate the risk of corruption within its procurement architecture, Ukraine has decentralised by delegating purchasing responsibility to two agencies.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has reformed its procurement architecture in line with Nato standards, according to the nation’s acting director of the Procurement Policy Department, Hlib Kanievskyi.
Unveiled to represenatives of the Nato Support and Procurement Agency, which took place at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, Kanievskyi revealed that “the Ministry retained only a fraction of policy development, i.e. establishing rules and quality control.”
The functions under the centralised structure enabled potential corruption, Kanievskyi observed.
Ukraine has long been under scrutiny for corruption at various levels of Government. While the nation fights an existential war against invading Russian forces bent on subduing their sovereignty, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has instituted major reforms to curtail the self-inflicting threat from within.
As part of the country’s security co-operation arrangements with global allies – including Canada, Denmark, Italy and the Netherlands in recent weeks – they all acknolwedged that Ukraine’s future integration within the Euro-Atlantic community depends “on [these] continued reforms regarding good governance, anti-corruption, transparency and modernisation of the defence sector.”
To eliminate such risk, Ukraine’s newly decentralised procurement structure will hand over direct purchasing responsibility to two agencies: Lethal and Non-lethal defence acquisition.
The Non-lethal agency has already entered the auction through the Prozorro system – Ukraine’s public electronic procurement system – and purchases clothing, body armour, helmets, fuel and lubricants for systems used across the Armed Forces.
Weapons and ammunition are purchased by the Lethal agency. Recently, it announced for the first time the purchase of 20,000 uncrewed aerial systems with a total expected cost of almost 3bn hryvnias ($78.6m) (excluding VAT) through the Prozorro system.
Quashing corruption
To increase oversight over the two agencies’ activities, the MoD initiated the establishment of supervisory boards within both.
The Lethal Defence Acquisition Agency has announced the selection of a recruiting company that will help select independent supervisory board members.
Its responsibilities will include developing an anti-corruption policy, as well as appointing and terminating the powers of the head of the internal audit unit. Preparations are being made for the start of the selection of the recruiting company for the Non-lethal Defence Acquisition Agency, Kanevskyi noted.
In addition to the meeting with Nato Support and Procurement, MoD representatives held meetings devoted to the topics ‘Ukraine-Nato Council’ (with the Nato Operations Department), ‘Civilian Oversight of the Army’ (with the Nato International Military Headquarters), ‘US Priorities for Nato’ (with the US Permanent Representative to Nato). (Source: army-technology.com)
07 Mar 24. UK to supply more than 10,000 drones to Ukraine. The announcement was made today by Defence Secretary Grant Shapps as he met President Zelenskyy in Kyiv.
Britain steps up support to Ukraine today with a complete package of £325m for cutting-edge drones to help fight Putin’s illegal invasion.
The investment, which will deliver more than 10,000 drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces will harness the UK’s world-leading defence industries to deliver advanced new drone capabilities to Ukraine throughout 2024.
The announcement was made today by the Defence Secretary during a visit to Ukraine, his third visit to the country. Accompanied by the Chief of the Defence Staff, he met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, where they reiterated their commitment to Ukraine.
In a significant boost to the £200m drone package announced by the Prime Minister in January, the now £325m overall funding commitment will deliver over 10,000 uncrewed platforms – the majority of which are first-person view (FPV) drones,1000 one-way attack drones which have been researched and developed in the UK, as well as surveillance and maritime drones.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said:
I am ramping up our commitment to arm Ukraine with cutting-edge new drones coming directly from the UK’s world-leading defence industries – straight from the factory floor to the frontline. I encourage international partners to join the UK in this effort.
Ukraine’s Armed Forces are using UK donated weapons to unprecedented effect, to help lay waste to nearly 30% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
On my third visit to this great country, I was pleased to be able to offer my firm reassurance to President Zelenskyy on the UK’s unwavering commitment to the brave people and military forces of Ukraine.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have earned significant attention for their highly effective use of different types of drones – destroying and damaging thousands of pieces of Russian equipment and vehicles, using much cheaper systems. Highly manoeuvrable FPV drones, which allow the operator the ability to finely control the movements of the drone in real time, have been successfully used to bypass Russian air defences to hit their targets.
These drones have proven highly effective on the battlefield since Russia’s full-scale invasion, providing situational awareness to target enemy positions and armoured vehicles. Ukrainian forces have also used these drones effectively to strike at the heart of Russia’s Navy. With more than a £100M of this package being spent on maritime capabilities, Ukraine will continue to turn the tide in the Black Sea.
Following a meeting of the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group last month, which convenes more than 50 countries in providing military support to Ukraine, the Defence Secretary announced that the UK would co-lead an international capability coalition with Latvia to bolster Ukraine’s drone capabilities.
The Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary have both emphasised the importance of championing international support for Ukraine, and last month the Defence Secretary called on NATO Allies to commit even further during a meeting of the alliance’s ministers. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
07 Mar 24. Russia reports interception of French-supplied AASM guided bomb. Russia has claimed to have intercepted a Safran Armement Air-Sol Modulaire (AASM) Hammer launched at its forces in Ukraine.
Russian state-controlled media reported the claim on 6 March, quoting the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation as saying that ground-based air defences had shot down a single guided bomb “in the zone of a special military operation”.
The report came weeks after French President Emmanuel Macron said on 16 January that France would send AASM bombs to Ukraine as part of a wider support package that also included additional MBDA SCALP EG cruise missiles. If true, the TASS news agency report provides the first confirmation of their delivery and use.
(Source: Janes)
07 Mar 24. Canada to invest in technologies to boost 155mm artillery production. Canada on Thursday said it would invest C$4.4m ($3.3m) to help national defence manufacturers ramp up production of NATO-standard 155 mm munitions, shells desperately needed by Ukraine to defend itself from Russia’s invasion, according to a statement.
The Canadian companies that will be getting the funding are IMT Defence, in Ingersoll, Ontario, and two units of General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems in Quebec.
“We are working with industry right now on ways to substantially increase the production of this ammunition in Canada – and I hope that we will have more to say about this in short order,” Defense Minister Bill Blair said at the Ottawa Conference on Security & Defence.
The minister gave no timeline for when new production could start.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said earlier this year that a shortage of ammunition, which he described as “shell hunger”, was a big problem for Kyiv’s troops two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The North American Treaty Organization signed a 1.1bn euro ($1.2bn) contract for hundreds of thousands of 155mm artillery rounds in January, some of which will be supplied to Ukraine, with the first deliveries expected at the end of 2025. ($1 = 1.3489 Canadian dollars)
($1 = 0.9189 euros) (Source: Google/Reuters)
06 Mar 24. Ukrainian Intelligence Timur Unit Is Actively Engaging Russian Mercenaries in Sudan. Ukrainian special forces have been conducting combat operations against Russian-backed entities in Sudan. This move comes as part of a broader strategy to counter Russian military and economic operations on a global scale. The Wall Street Journal reports that at least 100 members of the Ukrainian intelligence special forces, specifically from the Timur unit of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, were deployed in Sudan to combat the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization involved in various conflicts supporting Moscow’s interests.
The operation was initiated at the request of Sudan’s military ruler, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, following a phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The request was rooted in a mutual interest, as Wagner Group has aligned themselves with the Rapid Support Force (RSF), who is actively engaged in the Civil War against the Sudanese Government. The Russian entity is known to trade operational expertise in exchange for mining rights and natural resources currently being used to fund the war in Ukraine. Additionally, al-Burhan has been quietly supplying Ukraine with military aid since the conflict began in 2022, incentivizing the continued relationship between Ukraine and Sudan.
Throughout the deployment, which spanned from August 2023 to early 2024, Ukrainian forces engaged the Rapid Support Force (RSF), as well as the Wagner Group. The use of advanced tactics, including the first-time deployment of attack drones in Sudan, marked the operational strategy of Ukrainian forces. These engagements resulted in the elimination of two Wagner mercenaries and the capture of another, alongside significant impacts on the RSF and associated Sudanese forces.
The presence and activities of Ukrainian forces in Sudan have been somewhat shrouded in ambiguity, with Ukrainian Defence Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov emphasizing the global nature of their conflict with Russia without explicit confirmation of military personnel in Sudan. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
06 Mar 24. Czech defence group CSG plans ammunition venture in Ukraine. Czechoslovak Group (CSG), one of Europe’s biggest ammunition producers, is looking to set up joint ventures to invest hundreds of ms of euros in Ukraine to boost the country’s defence capacities, CSG’s bnaire owner said on Wednesday. The ventures would focus on heavy ammunition and equipment, providing important technology and a way to ramp up production in the coming years, although not an immediate fix to Europe’s drive to get more artillery rounds to Ukraine now, Michal Strnad told a group of journalists.
CSG has become an important supplier to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, delivering refurbished T-72 tanks along with ammunition, howitzers and other equipment.
Its business has soared with those supplies, along with a renewed focus in Europe on defence spending. Revenues hit 1 bn euros ($1.1 bn) in 2022, the latest year available.
The 31-year-old Strnad, who grew CSG after taking full ownership from his father in 2018, said the joint ventures (JV) would expand facilities for state-owned Ukrainian defence firms.
“We have two or three projects under discussion for JVs,” he said at his Prague headquarters.
“The agreement will probably be done this year, but then two to three years (before production). If we have an agreement, we would transfer the technology for different calibres and different equipment.”
Strnad said the deals would be similar to Rheinmetall’s (RHMG.DE), opens new tab, a major German arms producer that said last month it would start joint production with Ukraine of 155mm-calibre artillery ammunition, which CSG also produces.
Artillery ammunition has become a pressing issue for Ukraine after two years of fighting. More countries have been signing up to a Czech government-led initiative to source hundreds of thousands of rounds from outside Europe for Ukraine.
“In terms of artillery and tank ammunition, you have in Europe very limited capacities,” Strnad said.
CSG’s tank and heavy equipment deliveries to Ukraine are mainly funded by other European Union or NATO countries. Strnad said the company had sent around 150 to 160 pieces of equipment this way since the war started.
(Source: Google/Reuters)
07 Mar 24. Ukraine shoots down 13 Russian combat aircraft in as many days: UK statement to the OSCE. UK military advisor, Nicholas Aucott, says Ukraine is inflicting significant losses on Russia’s airforce, with Ukraine destroying Russian jets 20 times faster than Russia can replace them.
Thank you, Mr Chair. This morning’s Security Dialogue was an excellent and informative session to hear expert opinion about the Women, Peace and Security agenda. The impact of Putin’s illegal war of aggression against its sovereign neighbour, Ukraine, has brought untold misery to hundreds of thousands of women and children. Women and children have been killed, their homes have been destroyed, they have been forced to leave their country and they have lost loved ones on the front line.
This war has been an awful tragedy for the people of Ukraine, but they continue to inspire and remind all of us here in this Forum of their resilience and bravery as they fight to defend their country and the values of democracy and freedom. Whilst the ground situation remains broadly static, Ukraine has continued to inflict significant losses on Russia’s invasion force, shooting down another three Sukhoi Su-34 fighter bombers in regions near Avdiivka and Mariupol, in the latest blow to Russia’s airforce.
This brings the total to 12 Sukhoi planes brought down in a 13-day period and 13 Russian planes overall, including the loss of the A-50U radar aircraft I spoke of last week. The repeated destruction of warplanes is a significant setback for Russia’s war effort, given that Russia is struggling to produce more than a few dozen each year due to sanctions, with reports suggesting that Russia is losing jets 20 times faster than they can replace them.
Mr Chair, Ukraine has stood up to Putin’s imperialistic ambitions. Now in the third year of war, Russia’s plan to surround Kyiv within three days, bring down the government, and subjugate most of the country in less than a month has spectacularly failed in its objectives. Instead, Russia’s illegal actions have strengthened the NATO alliance, weakened Russia’s own security partnerships and diminished Russia’s international standing.
Russia has been clear about its aims. No one in this Forum should be in any doubt. The Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council, Medvedev called Ukraine a “cancerous growth”, denying its right to exist; and we have seen in Bucha what Russia does in the territories it controls.
The United Kingdom will stand firm behind Ukraine to ensure that Russia’s unchecked aggression will not prevail. In support of this, the United Kingdom will co-lead a major drone capability coalition with Latvia. We have introduced the largest and most severe package of sanctions ever imposed on Russia or indeed any major economy. And we have now sanctioned over 1700 individuals and entities since Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The United Kingdom recognises that now is the time to double down on our support so Ukraine not only wins the war, but emerges from it stronger, with its sovereignty and freedom fully restored. By doing so, we make sure that Russia pays the price and its efforts to undermine global stability are stopped in their tracks. If we allow Russia to lay waste to this stability, the risks to the world order and to us all are grave. Thank you. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
07 Mar 24. Senior Russian officer warns Ukraine conflict could escalate into full-scale war in Europe.
summary
• Russia must re-organise its security, says senior officer
• The West may boost ‘proxy forces’ against Russia, he says
A senior Russian military officer has warned that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a full-scale war in Europe and said the probability of Moscow’s forces becoming involved in a new conflict is increasing “significantly.”
Colonel-General Vladimir Zarudnitsky, head of the Russian army’s Military Academy of the General Staff, made the comments in an article for “Military Thought”, a defence ministry publication, the state RIA news agency reported on Thursday.
“The possibility of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine – from the expansion of participants in ‘proxy forces’ used for military confrontation with Russia to a large-scale war in Europe – cannot be ruled out,” RIA cited him a saying.
“The main source of military threats to our state is the anti-Russian policy of the United States and its allies, who are conducting a new type of hybrid warfare in order to weaken Russia in every possible way, limit its sovereignty and destroy its territorial integrity,” he was quoted as saying.
“The likelihood of our state being purposefully drawn into new military conflicts is significantly increasing.”
The war in Ukraine has triggered the deepest crisis in Russia’s relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and President Vladimir Putin has warned that the West risks provoking a nuclear war if it sends troops to fight in Ukraine.
Putin has cast his decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022 as a special military operation designed to secure Russia’s own security against an increasingly hostile U.S.-backed Ukrainian leadership. Kyiv says it is defending itself against an imperial-style war of conquest designed to erase its national identity.
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Zarudnitsky’s comments come at a time when the West is scrambling to help Ukraine with more arms and financing after Kyiv’s failed counteroffensive last summer and after Russian forces regained the initiative on the battlefield.
Zarudnitsky advocated a number of changes in the way Russia organises its military and security, RIA added, including placing greater emphasis on replying on what he called friendly countries to ensure Russia’s own security and consolidating the whole of Russian society around its defence needs. (Source: Reuters)
06 Mar 24. Ukraine finds unlikely war ally against Russia – a British tank museum.
History boffins at a tank museum are helping Ukrainian forces in their fight against Russia by supplying them with old manuals and parts for their ageing armoured fleet
dailystar
Ukraine has found an unlikely ally in the war with Russia – a British tank museum.
History boffins are helping Ukrainian forces by supplying them with old manuals and parts for their ageing armoured fleet. Both Ukraine and
When they drive over mines their tracks come off. But while Russia’s tanks are rendered useless Ukraine’s are returning to the battlefield after the UK Government tasked specialist defence companies with supplying parts and upgrades to repair them.
The Tank Museum in Dorset delved into its archives and dug out old manuals and parts.
These include MTLB, BMP1 and T72 armoured vehicles that were originally in service when Ukraine was part of the USSR.
Ukrainian forces stationed at nearby Bovington Camp in Dorset are training on tanks at the museum.
Museum curator David Willey has supplied plans to Sheffield-based armoured vehicles manufacturer Cook Defence Systems which is re-engineering tanks.
Mr Willey said: “It has been an honour to play a small part in helping our allies in their war.” (Source: News Now/Daily Star))
05 Mar 24. Lithuania can count on Poland’s military help if needed, Duda says. Poland stands ready to defend its NATO partners at any time, President Andrzej Duda said on Tuesday, as he observed part of the alliance’s biggest exercises since the Cold War.
With around 90,000 troops taking part, the Steadfast Defender exercises mark a show of strength from NATO as countries on its eastern flank boost their defence spending in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Polish leg of the exercises, called Dragon 24, sees troops crossing the Vistula river before travelling around 300 km to the Suwalki gap, a strip of land nestled between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus.
“These are our joint exercises that strengthen the security of NATO’s entire eastern flank. Poland is ready to implement our obligations arising from collective defence at any time, it is determined,” Duda said during a joint speech with the president of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda.
Duda said the exercise showed the readiness to defend the territory of NATO, including Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic states.
“Lithuania can count on us that if there was such a need, Polish soldiers would stand shoulder to shoulder with Lithuanian forces to protect every inch of land from an enemy attack,” he said.
Tuesday’s exercises involved crossing the Vistula River with tanks and armoured vehicles from various NATO countries a point that is 340 meters wide.
“This is a serious test for the soldiers, but it shows their excellent preparation and our readiness to move forces from west to east in response to a possible attack on NATO forces in our part of Europe,” Duda said.
Next week, Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk will go to Washington to mark 25th anniversary of Poland joining NATO, and discuss the situation in Ukraine, during a meeting with President Joe Biden. (Source: Reuters)
05 Mar 24. Russia says it strengthens military forces in Europe in response to NATO. Russia has strengthened its military forces in the north and west of the country to counter what Moscow perceives as a build-up of NATO forces near Russia, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday. In response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Finland has joined NATO and Sweden is on the point of doing so. NATO is this week conducting a military exercise called Nordic Response 2024 which it says will involve more than 20,000 soldiers in Norway, Finland and Sweden and will focus on collective defence.
“Against the background of a build-up of NATO’s military potential near the Russian borders, the expansion of the alliance through the accession of Finland and, in the future, Sweden, we have taken steps to strengthen the groupings of troops in the north-western and western strategic directions,” Shoigu told top generals, without providing details.
The war in Ukraine has triggered the deepest crisis in Russia’s relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and President Vladimir Putin has warned the West that it risks provoking a nuclear war if Western troops are sent to fight in Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)
06 Mar 24. Inside Europe’s drive to get ammunition to Ukraine as Russia advances.
• summary
• Ukraine is being outgunned, Russian forces are advancing
• Dutch and Czechs lead European drive to supply Ukraine
• Prices up, availability down since war began
• Disagreements in EU may hold up funding for arms
Hundreds of Czechs and a handful of Ukrainians are working round the clock in eastern Czech Republic to transform a collection of buildings dating back to World War Two into a hub for supplying arms and ammunition to Ukraine.
The initiative is part of Europe’s efforts to provide Kyiv with weapons to repel Russian forces after the stalling of U.S. military aid, which has been the backbone of international support.
Visiting the Sternberk facility owned by Czech private arms manufacturer Excalibur Army, General Onno Eichelsheim, head of the Dutch military, described the urgency of the situation as Kyiv’s losses mount in eastern and southern Ukraine.
“We have to speed it up. We have to deliver more and we have to do it faster,” he told Reuters during the recent trip to inspect self-propelled howitzer cannons and a refurbished Russian tank to be sent into battle.
The most pressing need for Ukraine two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion is artillery ammunition, which is running low as the sides use heavy cannon fire to hold largely static, entrenched positions along the 1,000-km (620-mile) front line.
The European Union, which with other Western allies wants to contain Russian advances and repel an increasingly assertive rival, launched an initiative in March 2023 to deliver 1m artillery shells to Ukraine within 12 months.
A year later, it had delivered little more than half that number, officials said, because of insufficient production capacity and a lack of long-term orders.
“CLEARING HOUSE”
The Czech government has played a central role in trying to raise funding among partners, and in working out deals with the Czech defence industry.
The Netherlands has also been “quite busy for a few months in several countries” trying to make up the shortfall in artillery rounds, said Colonel Simon Wouda, chief of the Netherlands’ Ukraine Taskforce.
“The first batch should be ready within four months, and that is a very conservative calculation. The second part can certainly be delivered in the second half of this year,” Wouda said, detailing the timeline of supplies for the first time.
He said efforts were under way to secure additional contracts with Excalibur Army – which is part of the privately held Czechoslovak Group (CSG) – to purchase 155 mm rounds, which fit artillery guns the Dutch are providing.
The Czechoslovak Group acts as manufacturer and munitions clearing house – making air defence systems and vehicles, and sourcing tanks, artillery and shells from around the world and revamping them for Ukraine.
Western European countries and other allies pay for much of the materiel. Ukraine also buys military equipment and ammunition directly from partners.
The Netherlands has been working with the Czech Republic to find as many 155-mm artillery rounds as possible for Ukraine.
Wouda wants to guarantee a steady supply of ammunition as part of a security deal detailed by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The Netherlands and other countries will fund about 800,000 artillery shells being sourced through the Czech Republic.
AMMUNITION PRICES SPIKE
Coalition members funding the short-term purchases include Britain, Canada, Denmark, the Czech Republic and the United States, among others, Wouda told Reuters.
“Collectively we have actually found opportunities around the world to find ammunition in other places, outside of Europe,” he said, declining to identify those places.
In the two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, much of Ukraine’s ammunition from overseas has been sourced to U.S. stocks.
Western producers have increased production to meet the unexpected surge in demand and the European Commission, the EU executive, expects annual EU-wide shell production to reach 1.4 m by the end of 2024. It was around 500,000 a year ago.
For every shell Ukraine fires along the front lines, Russia fires between five or six, officials and defence analysts say. This imbalance restricts Ukraine’s ability to suppress Russian attacks and provide cover for its own troop movements.
Russia has increased weapons production and can maintain a much higher rate of fire than Ukraine, but Western experts say Moscow also faces some constraints and has turned to North Korea to bolster its munitions supplies.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told EU foreign ministers last week that Ukraine needed 2.5 m artillery shells this year, according to the Financial Times – suggesting a daily requirement of 7,000 – but the EU had sent only 400,000.
Supplies of ammunition to Ukraine have been interrupted by politics, with U.S. Congress holding up a $60bn military aid package and European powers divided about using EU funds to purchase munitions outside the bloc.
There are about 2m large calibre ammunition rounds available on the global market, a senior Czech official said.
Demand from the Ukraine war has driven up prices to $2,800-3,200 per round from $700-$1,200 beforehand, two sources familiar with the market said.
CHALLENGES
Ammunition supplies to Kyiv must be ramped up if it is to have a chance of turning the tide of the war, analysts Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman wrote in a February research paper for the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“For supporting countries, the challenge is to significantly increase production of artillery ammunition and air-defence interceptors,” it said.
“Kyiv needs around 75,000–90,000 artillery shells per month to sustain the war defensively, and more than double that – 200,000–250,000 – for a major offensive.”
Where to source the ammunition is being debated within the EU.
The Netherlands has allocated 250 m euros ($271 m) for ammunition purchases for Kyiv, including non-European stocks through the Czech defence industry, and asked allies to contribute to the plan being implemented with the Czech government.
The senior Czech official said donor countries can choose from a list of offers of various types of products and origin, with several Czech companies operating as a “clearing house”.
With European ammunition sold out for two years, the official questioned why there would be any hesitation to go beyond local markets.
France and Germany are considering joining the initiative. French President Emmanuel Macron backed the plan during a visit to Prague on Tuesday and opened the door to using European funds for it, but did not say what Paris would contribute to it.
France has also invited foreign and defence ministers from Ukraine’s main allies and the NATO Secretary General to take part in video call on Thursday aimed at showing a “united front” and coming up with concrete proposals to boost support for Kyiv.
The invitation said the meeting would look at ways of speeding up delivery of artillery ammunition supply and production.
NOT ONLY AMMUNITION
Ukraine’s needs extend beyond artillery ammunition. It wants to bolster its air defences and needs more hardware along front lines to match Russia’s superior resources. South Korea and Turkey are among countries supplying Ukraine so far.
Later this year, U.S. F-16 fighters are expected to be delivered to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands. The Dutch are also part of a group providing advanced drones capable of attacking deeper into Russian-held territory.
The Netherlands has already received 100 mounted anti-aircraft guns and 45 refurbished T-72 tanks for Ukraine from Excalibur Army, among 105 funded with the U.S. and Denmark.
It has ordered nine modern howitzer cannon systems. Another Czech supplier, radar technology company ERA, is delivering four long-range surveillance systems, also donated by the Dutch.
Pavel Doško, business development director at CSG’s Defence Land Systems, said hundreds of workers had been added to increase production at the Sternberk site.
“Together with the Dutch partners and other partners that we have in NATO, we are able to supply Ukraine now with quite a lot of materiel that they desperately need in their defence,” he said in an interview.
Standing near a construction site where cement floors had recently been poured and a frame of steel beams built, he said: “We’re doing what we can to supply as much as possible, as good as possible and as fast as possible.” ($1 = 0.9211 euros) (Source: Reuters)
05 Mar 24. Russia’s Su-34 Warplane Nightmare Is Just Getting Started.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports that 11 Russian Su-34 Fullback fighter bombers have been shot down in recent weeks, amounting to nearly $1bn in losses for Russia.
Summary: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports that 11 Russian Su-34 Fullback fighter bombers have been shot down in recent weeks, amounting to nearly $1bn in losses for Russia. These setbacks are partly due to the absence of A-50 airborne radar support, making the Su-34s vulnerable in Ukrainian airspace. The Russian Aerospace Forces face challenges from both air defenses, including advanced Western systems like the MIM-104 Patriot and NASAMS, and ground attacks on airfields. To mitigate losses, Russia could adjust tactics and improve airbase security, but limitations in range and increased Ukrainian capabilities pose ongoing threats to their Su-34 fleet.
In just a few days of fighting, the Russian military has lost several Su-34 fighter bombers from Ukrainian fire.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian forces have shot down 11 Su-34 Fullback jets in just the past few weeks. Footage circulating social media supports many of the kills. Each Su-34 Fullback costs up to $85m, so the Kremlin has lost almost $1bn worth of aircraft in just a few weeks.
A main reason behind the Russian losses is the lack of A-50 airborne radar aircraft to support the Su-34 Fullbacks. The Ukrainians have destroyed several Russian A-50s lately, thus turning fighter and bomber jets essentially blind over Ukrainian airspace.
However, the Russian Su-34s face a dual problem.
A Dual Problem for Su-34 Fullback
To begin with, the Russians need to worry about two different sorts of attacks: air and ground.
The Russian Aerospace Forces have lost aircraft both in the air by Ukrainian fighter jets or air defense systems and on the ground by Ukrainian sabotage, suicide drones, missiles, and special operations raids.
When it comes to losses in the air, the Russian Aerospace Forces are reaping what their country sowed. The Ukrainian military is vastly better equipped than two years ago when the war began. In terms of air defenses, the Ukrainian Air Force now relies on a plethora of modern Western weapon systems, including the MIM-104 Patriot, IRIS-T, and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS). Russian aircraft and munitions can now be intercepted with reliability at large distances.
The only solution for the Russian Su-34 Fullbacks would be to release their stand-off munitions even further from their targets in an attempt to stay out of the Ukrainian air defense umbrella. But that is also a temporary solution as the Ukrainian Air Force will soon be fielding F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets that could easily intercept the Russian tactical bombing jets.
When it comes to ground attacks against airfields in Crimea or Russia, the Russian military is falling short. Instead of increasing security around the air bases, the Russians are moving important aircraft further to the East to ensure that they are out of range of the Ukrainian munitions and suicide drones. Although that can work with aircraft like strategic bombers that have longer ranges, it doesn’t work the same with fighter jets like the Su-34 Fullback, that has a more limited range.
In sum, to protect their Su-34 Fullback fleet, the Russians can design their missions better, releasing munitions at larger distances and increasing security around their air bases.
The Su-34 Fullback, Explained
The Su-34 Fullback is a twin-engine, twin-seat fighter bomber jet that can operate in all weather conditions and conduct fighter, bomber, and strike missions.
The aircraft has 12 external hardpoints that can carry up to 30,000 lbs of munitions.
The aircraft can reach speeds of almost Mach 2 (or 1,500 miles per hour), has an operational range of 2,500 miles, which can be further extended with aerial refueling. The Su-34 entered service in 2014 and over 150 aircraft have been produced. (Source: News Now/https://nationalinterest.org)
05 Mar 24. France Will Send Delair Drones to Ukraine. France will order 100 drones from the French company Delair that will arrive in Ukraine this summer, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu announced.
“Through an innovative program, France is ordering 100 remotely operated munitions from Delair, which will arrive in Ukraine this summer,” Lecornu stated on X. “In total, 2,000 remotely operated munitions will be ordered from our defense industry. For the needs of our armies and the needs of Ukraine.”
Drones have been a key tool in Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s war. In his nightly address on Jan. 29, President (Volodymyr) Zelensky noted that one of Ukraine’s top priorities for 2024 is the production of drones.
Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov previously said the intensity of drone use and minefields “made it impossible” for both Russia and Ukraine to conduct offensive operations.
Budanov also highlighted the importance of electronic warfare systems to counter enemy drones, which Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi had called “the key to victory in the drone war.”
Lecornu’s announcement comes after French President Emmanuel Macron held a summit on Ukraine in Paris, convening 20 European heads of state and other Western officials. The meeting included German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish President Andrzej Duda as well as leaders from the Baltic states. (Source: UAS VISION/yahoo!news)
05 Mar 24. Russian firms have attempted to expand production to fulfill war needs and to supplement some categories such as quadcopters that have been imported until now. This article is drawn from Teal Group’s World Military Unmanned Aerial Systems, 2023/2024 Market Profile & Forecast annual sector study.
Russian UAV systems have been shrouded in secrecy for many years, and it has only been in the past few years that any significant amount of information has emerged. Even now, there are many unanswered questions about their programs.
In 2000-2010, most Russian UAV programs were either in limbo, or barely funded. The Russian Armed Forces suffered through a “procurement holiday,” since the late 1990s with few or no systems being manufactured. The Shmel had been offered for sale as were several other UAVs at international air shows, but with little evidence of sales. Part of the problem has been that many of the systems were based around older UAV concepts, using wet-film recovery systems instead of offering real-time intelligence. In view of its prominence in the world aviation industry, it is quite remarkable that Russia had to turn to Israel and Iran to buy UAVs.
The main market for Russian UAVs in the 2000s was the civil/government sector, particularly for border patrol, pipeline security and other paramilitary applications. There was a standing requirement for a modest number of systems for the MVD state police for use in patrolling the Olympic winter games in Sochi.
The short and one-sided war with Georgia in 2008 was a wake-up call to the Russian Army about the backwardness of its drone fleet. The Georgian Armed Forces had acquired a modest number of drones from Israel and used them with some success in 2008 despite their eventual defeat against their much larger Russian opponent. The post-Georgian drone programs saw their first display in the 2014 Donbas war against Ukraine. This war was dominated by artillery use and the Russians had considerable success in using drones for artillery spotting and post-strike evaluations. Russia also used drones extensively in Syria though this was more a field-demonstration of new systems.
The war in Ukraine starting in February 2022 has been the largest commitment of Russian drones to date. The Russian operations have been largely overshadowed by the more publicized Ukrainian use of drones. As in the 2014-2021 Donbas war, the current war has seen extensive use of drones by Russia for artillery reconnaissance. Russia has been slower than Ukraine to deploy quadcopters for small unit observation, though this has changed in recent months with extensive use of Mavic and other quadcopter drones obtained off-the-shelf from China.
Russian losses to date have numbered nearly 5,000 of which about 3,500 have been quadcopters and other mini-UAVs, and the remainder larger winged UAVs in the mini-UAS and STUAS categories. Russian use of larger MALE drones has been limited so far as is known.
The future of the Russian drone program will be closely tied to the eventual outcome of the Ukraine war. A lingering war and continued Western (and Chinese) sanctions will badly impact the Russian aviation industry’s ability to make up for combat losses.
Russian firms have attempted to expand production to fulfill war needs and to supplement some categories such as quadcopters that have been imported until now. The main stumbling block has been the Russian reliance on the import of many key components, especially guidance systems and sensors. It is unclear whether Russian industry will be able to fill this gap or whether production will be limited to grey market import of necessary sub-components.
Any forecast of Russian drone acquisition is highly speculative in view of the status of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. An attritional struggle could last for years, end abruptly due to a sudden collapse of either Army, or peter out into a small-scale war as occurred in the Donbas after the initial 2014 Russian invasion. (Source: Teal Group)
05 Mar 24. German defence minister Boris Pistorius said an investigation into Russia’s intercept of a high-level military call on Ukraine had revealed that one of the participants had joined via a non-secure line. Pistorius ruled out the possibility that a Russian spy had taken part in the conversation. “Our communication systems were not compromised,” he said. “The reason the air force call could nonetheless be recorded was because of a mistake an individual made with the application,” he added. Russia’s intercept and publication of the conversation has caused outrage in Berlin and triggered a debate about the safety of sensitive government communications. A recording and transcript of the talk were posted online last Friday by Margarita Simonyan, head of Russian state broadcaster RT. In it, the head of the Luftwaffe, Ingo Gerhartz, and three high-ranking air force officers are heard discussing various scenarios for deploying German Taurus cruise missiles in Ukraine. The four speak about the targets Ukrainian forces could hit with the missiles, including the bridge linking the Russian mainland to Crimea. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far refused to supply Tauruses to Ukraine, arguing that German soldiers would have to be sent there to programme them — a deployment that would risk dragging the country into the war. German officials said the leak, and Moscow’s subsequent accusations that Germany was devising “cunning plans” to launch strikes on Russian territory, constituted a brazen attempt by the Kremlin to divide Ukraine’s allies. Recommended News in-depth War in Ukraine Olaf Scholz left reeling by leaks on missiles for Ukraine Pistorius said the four participants had connected via the teleconferencing platform Webex, using a version of the software certified for use by the Bundeswehr, the German armed forces. But a preliminary investigation of the intercept had revealed that one of them, who was in Singapore at the time, failed to comply with the relevant security protocols, dialling in on a “non-secure dataline” — implying a WiFi or mobile phone connection. Singapore had been hosting a major air show at the time, which had attracted high-ranking military officers from European states. “Obviously such an event, against this backdrop, was a windfall for the Russian intelligence services,” Pistorius said. He said phones had been tapped extensively in all the hotels where air show attendees were staying. The intercept of the Webex talk was a “chance hit, in the framework of a large-scale, scattergun operation”. Pistorius said disciplinary procedures had been initiated against all four participants in the eavesdropped conversation. But firing them over the incident was “not on the agenda right now”. Unless worse details emerged, “I won’t sacrifice any of my best officers to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s games”, he said. (Source: FT.com)
05 Mar 24. North Korea stops sending shells to Russia, Seoul claims. Satellite photos seem to confirm no more arms have left since Kim Jong-un sent three m to Vladimir Putin. Shipments of North Korean artillery shells to Russia that have given the Kremlin an edge on battlefields in Ukraine may have stopped, South Korean analysts believe.
Satellite photos show that the four Russian container ships used to pick up suspected arms supplies have not docked in North Korea since Feb 12.
“It is unclear if this is due to production problems at North Korea’s weapons factories or another issue,” said NK Pro, which researches North Korea and has studied the satellite photos. “North Korea does not appear to have delivered containers to the export pier during that time.”
The four Russian container ships have been named: the Lady R, the Angara, the Maia-1 and the Maria. NK Pro said that they had previously made 32 trips to North Korea since August when North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un agreed to arm Vladimir Putin in exchange for space technology.
It is believed that North Korea has sent up to three m shells to Russia, helping to give it a major advantage over Ukrainian forces who have complained of a lack of supplies from their Western allies.
Most of North Korea’s shells have been sent to Russia by ship, although NK Pro said that they may now have shifted onto its railway system.
“It also cannot be ruled out that weapons are being transferred to Russia by air or by rail,” it said.
As well as waiting for more arms supplies from the West, Ukrainian soldiers have also complained about some of the equipment given to them last year.
German tank fails
An unnamed Ukrainian soldier said that Germany-made Leopard-2 tanks may be mobile and equipped with powerful weapons but they need too much maintenance and have a weakness at the front of their armour.
“Between the turret and the hull, the upper and lower parts of the tank, there is a gap that urgently needs to be closed,” the tank driver told the Munich-based Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.
Last month, Ukraine’s forces retreated from the destroyed town of Avdiivka in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and reports have now said that Russian forces are concentrating their fire on Chasiv Yar, five miles to the west of Bakhmut.
But, although Ukrainian forces are on the back foot across the front line in Donbas, they have scored some successes against Russia’s air force. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
05 Mar 24. Ukrainian sea drones damage Russian patrol ship off Crimea. Ukrainian sea drones damaged a Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship off occupied Crimea, Kyiv said on Tuesday. Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said that a unit called Group 13 attacked the Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship Sergey Kotov near the Kerch Strait.
“As a result of a strike by Magura V5 maritime drones, the Russian ship Project 22160 Sergey Kotov sustained damage to the stern, starboard and port sides,” it said. The message added that the ship was worth about $65 m (£51m).
Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, said on Telegram on Tuesday that “The Russian Black Sea Fleet is a symbol of occupation. It cannot be in the Ukrainian Crimea,” in an apparent reference to the attack. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
28 Feb 24. Netherlands General Eichelsheim visits arms manufacturers in the Czech Republic that are supplying Ukraine howitzers and radar. General Eichelsheim visits arms manufacturers in the Czech Republic that are supplying Ukraine. The DITA self-propelled howitzer is a modern artillery system that can hit targets dozens of kilometres away. Ukraine urgently needs weapons of this kind. The Netherlands therefore recently ordered nine units for Ukraine. The weapons are part of a large Dutch order for Ukraine that is being fulfilled by two arms manufacturers in the Czech Republic. Netherlands Chief of Defence General Onno Eichelsheim paid them a visit today. Eichelsheim also inspected a VERA-NG radar system. This passive surveillance system can track airborne, maritime and ground targets.
Europe’s collective production capacity can only be rapidly increased through smart cooperation. Joint procurement by countries helps in this regard. The Chief of Defence stressed that support to Ukraine remains the highest priority for the Netherlands.
Testing for Ukraine: The Netherlands had already ordered 100 MR-2 counter-UAS and light air defence systems and, together with the United States and Denmark, 100 modernised T-72 main battle tanks in the Czech Republic. Eichelsheim was also shown these weapons during his tour of the manufacturers Excalibur Army and ERA. The MR-2 is a relatively basic mobile air defence system that can effectively eliminate drones. Ukrainian military personnel are already familiar with the T-72 tank. They therefore do not require additional training to operate it. After the materiel has been tested, it goes directly to Ukraine.
Defence industry on the rise: The Netherlands is cooperating with the Czech Republic because of its well-developed defence industry, and the Netherlands is now one of the Czech defence industry’s most important customers. In most European countries, rebuilding the capacity to produce weapon systems and weapon platforms in significant quantities will take time because of decades of little or no investment.
However, Europe’s security is now very much at risk, not only because of the war in Ukraine. Unrest in the Middle East, a more assertive China and shifting power dynamics are also factors. The Netherlands is therefore investing in the production capacity of the European defence industry. As Eichelsheim explained, a failure to do so would place the security of the Netherlands at even greater risk.
Many other European countries and companies have also entered into partnerships to increase production capacity. A good example in this regard is the plan for a European production line in Germany for Patriot air defence missiles. (Source: www.joint-forces.com)
04 Mar 24. The Netherlands to Donate Watercraft to Ukraine. The Netherlands is to provide fast and highly manoeuvrable rubber and patrol boats as well as assault craft to Ukraine. The Netherlands also contributing € 250 m to the Czech initiative to order large numbers of artillery shells for Ukraine in the short term. This was reported by the government in a letter to the House of Representatives.
The delivery concerns 14 rigid hull inflatable boats (RHIBs), 8 militarised river patrol boats and CB90 assault craft. Some of these watercraft will be supplied from Defence’s own inventory while others will be sourced from industry.
Since the beginning of December 2023, the Netherlands has supplied different kinds of ammunition, radar systems and individual weapons such as rifles and machine guns. Field hospitals, tents and accessories, generators and numerous medical goods have also been sent to Ukraine.
Moreover, it was announced last Monday evening that the Netherlands will supply over €100m in additional ammunition. In addition to continued Dutch support over the long term, more ammunition is a top priority for Ukraine.
The previously announced 10-year security agreement with Ukraine was officially signed by Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. The agreement focuses on security cooperation, including military support in the medium and long term.
In addition to the Netherlands, 31 countries and the EU have concluded an official agreement with Ukraine. These agreements illustrate that the Netherlands and internation. (Source: ASD Network)
26 Feb 24. The CIA Is Quietly Supporting Ukraine In the Now 2 Year Long War. In Ukraine’s forests, a seemingly abandoned military base conceals a bustling underground intelligence hub, supported almost entirely by the CIA. This secret facility is central to a decade-long partnership between the US and Ukraine, crucial for Kyiv’s ongoing defense against Russian aggression. The alliance has significantly enhanced Ukraine’s capabilities in intelligence gathering, technological warfare, and targeted military strikes, playing a pivotal role in countering Russian military strategies.
The collaboration, which began after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, has expanded to include training for elite Ukrainian units, establishment of spy bases, and sharing critical intelligence. These efforts have reportedly helped Ukraine thwart Russian advances and protect its leaders from assassination attempts. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
29 Feb 24. European states gather Soviet-style artillery rounds for Ukraine. Several European nations have sourced hundreds of thousands of 122-millimeter artillery rounds from abroad to donate to Ukraine, a move that experts say will help bridge Kyiv’s ammunition shortage against invading Russian forces during a critical time of the war.
The latest military package bound for Ukraine, announced this month by the German government, included over 120,000 artillery projectiles of the Soviet-standard caliber. The Berlin government specified that the deliveries were coming from industry stocks financed with public funds.
Local newspaper Der Spiegel reported that rounds were ordered from Bulgaria, a key producer of this type of ammunition in Europe.
“Most of Ukraine’s artillery is still from the Soviet era – standards were 122mm, 130mm and 152mm, so getting more of this caliber ammunition for Kyiv is valuable,” Mark Cancian, senior adviser for the international security program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.
Ukrainian forces still rely on older equipment, including the D-30 or 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, which can only fire non-NATO rounds.
At the Munich Conference, the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, said his government was also able to source nearly one m rounds from abroad, including 800,000 of the 155mm type and 300,000 of the 122mm type.
He added that the ammunition could be sent swiftly to the embattled country if funding was secured from other allies.
“Buying ammunition on the world market makes a lot of sense because of limits on what Europe and the U.S. can produce – Washington has done a lot of that already, having provided 200,000 152mm, 40,000 130mm, and 40,000 of 122mm type,” Cancian said.
A recent report by the CSIS think tank noted that shortages of Soviet-standard shells – 122mm and 152mmm – have gradually decreased the value of Soviet-era artillery.
While the United States has scouted the globe to buy this type of ammunition, Cancian says that some states may just be more inclined to sell it to nations other than the U.S.
“There are likely some countries who will sell to the Czech Republic but not the U.S. and who may also want to remain anonymous,” he said.
Nick Reynolds, research fellow for land warfare at the London-based RUSI think tank, said Ukraine should still strive to convert its artillery equipment to the NATO standard over time, as newer munitions are superior in explosive power, range and accuracy.
But, he added, “the scale of the war and the material requirements are enormous. Ukraine is firing 155mm shells and wearing out 155mm barrels far faster than either can be produced in Europe.”
(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company
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