NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Feb 29.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• DONETSK: Reports indicate that Ukrainian secondary defensive lines are unlikely to contain Russian advances west of Avdiivka in the immediate term
• STRIKES: Kyiv continues to report successes in destroying Russian aviation assets; these have possibly been facilitated by Ukrainian tactical changes and deployments of Patriot systems closer to the front
• MOLDOVA: Moscow will likely use Transnistria’s appeal for protection to set the conditions for a destabilisation campaign; Russian annexation remains highly unlikely
• FORECAST: The US and its NATO allies rule out deploying troops to Ukraine following comments by French President Emmanuel Macron; the comments were likely intended to signal European resolve due to concerns over US aid continuity
• BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces achieved marginal advances north-west of Ivanivkse (which is due west of Bakhmut) on 25 February. Russian milbloggers have since claimed that Russian forces further improved their positions around Ivanivske, though we cannot confirm this. Russian forces are nevertheless clearly attempting to maintain their recent progress north-west and west of Bakhmut. On 28 February, a Ukrainian military observer reported that Russia was committing additional forces to the offensive following recent successes. If confirmed, the capture of Ivanivske would advance Russian offensive operations against the settlement of Chasiv Yar, located around five miles (8km) west of Bakhmut.
• DONETSK: Reports continue to indicate that Ukrainian secondary defensive lines are unlikely to contain Russian advances west of Avdiivka entirely; current forward Ukrainian positions are more likely aimed at delaying Russian forces as they push westwards. Earlier on 29 February, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) assessed that Russian forces almost certainly now control several settlements around Avdiivka, namely Lastochkyne, Sieverne and Stepove. Ukrainian forces have fallen back to defensive positions near Semenivka, located five miles (8km) north-west of Avdiivka, though unconfirmed reports indicate that fortifications along this line are incomplete. This aligns with our earlier assessment that Ukrainian defence-in-depth fortifications west of Avdiivka are significantly less well-prepared than Russia’s own defences.
• DONETSK: While it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces will be able to establish a stable defensive line near Semenivka, ammunition shortages will place significant pressure on forces that are now fighting in open territory. As such, there is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces will attempt to establish a more stable defensive position further west along an arch running from the Karlovske Reservoir on the E-50 highway, located 11 miles (18km) west of Avdiivka, to Ocheretyne on the T-0511 highway, located eight miles (13km) north-west of Avdiivka. Satellite imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces have prepared layers of trenches and other fixed defences along this arch.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 27 February, Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash reported that Russian forces have intensified artillery and Shahed-136/131 drone strikes against Ukrainian frontline positions in the Oskil-Kreminna sector. Meanwhile, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian 14th brigade operating in the Kupiansk direction stated on 27 February that Russian forces have replenished equipment and personnel. The official also explained that Russian troops are increasing the number of attacks in the sector. The increase in Russian assaults likely confirms our assessment that Russian forces are trying to build momentum along this frontline before weather conditions deteriorate in the spring.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have continued to make slow progress along this front. Footage posted on 28 February shows that Russian forces progressed into Tabaivka, situated to the north-west of Svatove, while earlier footage from 26 February indicates that Russian forces progressed east of Bilohorivka, located around six miles (10km) south of Kreminna.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: On 28 February, Russia launched ten Shahed-136/131 drones and an unknown number of S-300 missiles. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all the drones over Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 26-27 February, Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia launched one North-Korean Iskandr-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, one Kh-31P missile, four Kh-59 guided missiles and 13 Shahed drones. It also intercepted 11 drones and two Kh-59 missiles over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad and Sumy oblasts. Explosions were also reported in Odesa oblast, while Ukrainian military officials claim that one drone reportedly crossed the Ukrainian border into Moldova. Although it remains uncertain whether the drone flew across Moldova overnight on 26-27 February, such territorial violations (a Russian drone wreckage was found in Moldova on 11 February) are increasingly likely as Russia ramps up pressure on Chișinău ahead of this year’s Moldovan presidential election.
• STRIKES: Earlier on 29 February, Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed two Su-34 aircraft, having also reportedly destroyed two additional Su-34 aircraft on 27 February. On 27 February, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that it had destroyed ten Su-34 strike jets since last week. Forbes stated that the Ukrainian troops possibly used US-produced Patriot missile launchers to carry out the attacks on 27 February. The reported successes are possibly the result of a shift in the tactical use of Patriot launchers towards protecting areas near the frontline, rather than cities and industrial centres behind these lines; this likely reflects an increased effort to counter the recent uptick in Russian aviation operations.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, a Ukrainian air force spokesperson, Yuriy Ihnat, claimed on 27 February that Russian forces have not operated any A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft since 23 February (Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed an AEW&C on this date). Russian forces reportedly began operating A-50 aircraft over the Azov Sea in November 2023. In January, Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed an A-50. The destruction of two A-50s in a month clearly highlights Russia’s inability to protect high-value air assets. On 27 February, DI assessed that Russia still retains seven A-50s, and that its air force will be able to cover the immediate loss of the two A-50s. However, the loss of experienced specialist mission crews will strain the capabilities of the remaining personnel operating these aircraft. DI also claimed that the Russian command is possibly considering different operating locations, though we assess that Ukraine’s growing long-range capabilities will still pose a threat to such strategic assets.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• AID: French President Emmanuel Macron announced on 26 February that Paris would join an initiative to make emergency purchases of artillery shells for Ukraine from countries outside the EU. Macron acknowledged that Europe cannot produce enough at the necessary speed. The region has already failed to deliver 1 million artillery rounds to Ukraine by March. Prague has identified around 800,000 shells outside the bloc that could be sent to Kyiv in the near term if other EU partners provide funding. The Czech Republic is seeking up to USD 1.5bn for the scheme, according to reports.
• AID: Prague reportedly enquired with EU officials as to whether the bloc could contribute up to EUR 300m (USD 325.5m) of unspent funds earmarked for artillery purchases for Ukraine. However, EU officials rejected this based on Paris’ (hitherto) objection to the use of shared EU funds to buy shells from outside the bloc. Macron’s comments therefore underscore a policy shift, likely due to concerns over the viability of long-term US aid and the EU’s failure to meet its deadline for artillery supplies.
• AID: CNN reported on 28 February that the Pentagon is considering whether or not to utilise some of its last remaining funding for military aid for Ukraine. The US Department of Defense (DOD) has around USD 4 billion remaining in presidential drawdown authority funds available for Kyiv, which allows the Pentagon to draw from its own stockpiles to dispatch military assistance to Ukraine. Press Secretary Patrick Ryder stated in January that the Pentagon does not have the available funds to replenish such stocks if assistance is sent. It is therefore uncertain whether the Pentagon will progress with such a decision, though the fact it is being considered reflects the growing need of Ukrainian forces amid the continual Congressional gridlock.
• US: US Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell announced on 28 February that he will step down from his position in November. McConnell has been a prominent supporter of Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion; he has advocated for sending money and weapons to Kyiv. While McConnell will not leave the Senate, his influence among Republican senators within the chamber will likely decrease; this will possibly further threaten the viability of US aid in the coming months.
• RUSSIA: The funeral of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny will take place on 1 March at 1400hrs (local time) in the Maryino district of the capital Moscow. The ceremony will be held at the Church of the Icon of the Mother of God ‘Assuage My Sorrow’; Navalny will be buried in Moscow’s Borisov Cemetery. A heightened police presence around these locations is highly likely; the Russian authorities are likely to be ready to crack down on actual and suspected mourners.
• MOLDOVA: On 28 February, the authorities in Moldova’s pro-Russia breakaway region of Transnistria appealed to Moscow for ‘protection’ against perceived pressure from the central Moldovan government. The Russian foreign ministry subsequently disclosed that the relevant agencies will examine Transnistria’s request, noting that protecting the interests of the region’s residents and Russia’s ‘compatriots’ is a priority. The request stops short of directly asking Russia to annex the region, which we previously assessed was unlikely. Notably, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not mention the appeal on 29 February during his address to Russia’s Federal Assembly.
• MOLDOVA: Nevertheless, Transnistria’s appeal for ‘protective measures’ is highly likely deliberately vague in order to allow Moscow to determine an appropriate response. Moscow will highly likely use the appeal to set conditions for a destabilisation campaign in Moldova using the pretext of safeguarding Russian speakers in the coming months. Any such campaign would highly likely aim to place pressure on the pro-West central Moldovan authorities ahead of the presidential election this autumn.

FORECAST

SPILLOVER: On 26 February, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that sending Western troops to Ukraine ‘could not be ruled out’, leading to backlash from within NATO that such a deployment will not take place. While Paris maintains its stance of ‘strategic ambiguity’ in relation to Russia, and although Macron acknowledged that there was no ‘consensus’ on the issue, numerous NATO allies, including Germany, the UK and the US, responded by clearly stating that there are no plans to commit their forces to fight in Ukraine (the US and Germany emphatically ruled out this eventuality).

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated in response that if NATO sent troops to fight in Ukraine, then war with the entire alliance ‘would not be likely, but inevitable’. It remains highly unlikely that NATO would openly deploy forces to fight in Ukraine in the medium term given the inability of either side to control the subsequent escalation and to prevent an initially limited conventional intervention from escalating into a nuclear confrontation.

Macron’s statement was likely in part aimed at illustrating European resolve to continue supporting Ukraine in the context of a potential Donald Trump victory in the November US election and the possible resultant drop in US aid to Ukraine as of 2025. Macron has continually emphasised the importance of ensuring European strategic autonomy; in his recent speech he expressly stated that Europe cannot wait for the outcome of the US election to ‘decide what our future is going to be’. Nevertheless, Macron’s speech has driven tensions with Germany, which has expressly rejected Macron’s strategic ambiguity stance, making it clear that German troops would not go into Ukraine. Macron’s statements have also prompted harsh criticism from opposition parties in France, who have accused the president of making irresponsible and bellicose statements.

Comments made by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on his refusal to deliver Taurus long-range cruise missiles have likewise led to criticism from within NATO. On 26 February, Scholz reiterated that Berlin will not send Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine given it is a ‘very far-reaching weapon’, and that Germany must not ‘be linked to targets this [Taurus] system reaches’, alluding to UK and French approaches with their own Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missile systems. The comments were criticised by the German conservative (CDU) opposition MP Norbert Röttgen as ‘completely irresponsible’.

*Moldova-Russia: Moscow will use breakaway region’s ‘protection’ plea to drive destabilisation. On 28 February, the authorities in Moldova’s pro-Russia breakaway region of Transnistria appealed to Moscow for ‘protection’ against perceived pressure from the central Moldovan government. The Russian foreign ministry subsequently disclosed that the relevant agencies will examine Transnistria’s request, noting that protecting the interests of the region’s residents and Russia’s ‘compatriots’ is a priority. The request stops short of directly asking Russia to annex the region, which we previously assessed was unlikely (see Sibylline Situation Update – 27 February 2024). Nevertheless, Transnistria’s appeal for ‘protective measures’ is highly likely deliberately vague in order to allow Moscow to determine an appropriate response. Moscow will highly likely use the appeal to set conditions for a destabilisation campaign in Moldova using the pretext of safeguarding Russian speakers in the coming months. Any such campaign would highly likely aim to place pressure on the pro-West central Moldovan authorities ahead of the presidential election this autumn.

Feb 27.

*Global: Evolving Russian actors’ TTPs highlight elevated supply chain risks facing organisations. On 26 February, the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US) issued an advisory stating that the Russian-aligned threat group ‘APT29’ is now targeting cloud services. The group’s known modus operandi primarily focuses on the exploitation of software vulnerabilities within on-premise infrastructure. However, more recently, it has shifted to targeting companies’ cloud infrastructure, employing password- and authentication-related attacks to infiltrate victims’ networks. These attacks have involved the use of ‘Multifactor Authentication (MFA) Bombing’ to trick victims into confirming their identity by repeatedly sending authentication notifications. They have also leveraged dormant accounts belonging to former employees, emphasising how weak cyber practices can exacerbate cyber risks for firms. Recent attacks have underscored how quickly threat actors can adjust their tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) to sustain their campaigns; these actors are known to have previously leveraged vulnerabilities in third-party software to compromise their victims, underscoring the heightened risks facing organisations via their software supply chain in the long term.

Feb 26.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• SOUTHERN: Russian forces are making progress along the southern Zaporizhzhia axis, namely by retaking territories lost during Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive; they are pushing into Robotyne
• STRIKES: The pattern and tempo of Russian strikes over the anniversary weekend were not particularly different to previous weeks, though sporadic drone and missile attacks nevertheless targeted numerous oblasts
• AID: On 24 February, several world leaders visited Kyiv (Ukraine) to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion; they announced new aid and sanctions packages
• FORECAST: During the ‘Ukraine: Year 2024’ summit to mark the second anniversary, Ukraine’s leadership confirmed that Russian forces are preparing for a new offensive as early as late May
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces are making steady gains to the north-west and west of Bakhmut, though progress towards the next most notable settlement of Chasiv Yar, located around five miles (8km) to the west, remains slow. Geolocated footage from 23 February confirms that Russian forces are now fighting on the outskirts of Ivanivske, located due west of Bakhmut. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 24 February also confirms that Russian forces have made steady advances south and south-east of Bohdanivka, located around four miles (6km) west of Bakhmut.
• DONETSK: On 26 February, Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lukhoviy announced that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lastochkyne, a village located to the west of Avdiivka. Lukhoviy explained that the withdrawal aims to re-organise Ukraine’s defences along the Orlivka-Tonenke-Berdychi line and to prevent Russian advances further west. All three settlements are located to the north-west of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, Oleksandr Borodin, the press officer of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade (which had played a major role in the withdrawal from Avdiivka), stated on 24 February that Russian forces are actively probing weaknesses in Ukrainian defences in the Avdiivka sector via assaults conducted by small groups.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage posted on 23 February shows limited Russian advances near Terny, located to the west of Kreminna. Meanwhile, additional footage from 22 February shows that Ukrainian forces regained territory to the east of Yampolivka, a settlement located due west of Kreminna. Overall, the front stretching along the Oskil-Kremina line has remained stable over the past few weeks. However, we assess that Russian forces are likely attempting to build momentum along this axis before the spring rains limit scope for ground manoeuvres.
• SOUTHERN: Russian forces are making progress along the southern Zaporizhzhia axis, namely by retaking the territories lost during Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive. Geolocated footage from 24 February shows Russian forces advancing into the centre of Robotyne, a town located around eight miles (13km) south-east of Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia oblast). Russian sources have subsequently claimed that their forces are attacking from the south into the northern sectors of the town, though this remains unconfirmed. The town is one of the only settlements that Ukraine managed to retake during its 2023 counter-offensive; we assess that ongoing Russian offensive efforts are almost certainly aimed at depriving Ukraine of what little territory it managed to liberate in 2023. Ukrainian forces are reportedly counter-attacking in the area in a bid to stem the Russian advances, though it remains unclear if and when they can delay such advances given Ukraine’s artillery shortages and Russia’s building momentum.
• STRIKES: The pattern and tempo of Russian strikes over the anniversary weekend have not been especially different to previous weeks, though further high-intensity strikes are likely in the coming weeks. Overnight on 25-26 February, Russia launched one Iskandr-M ballistic missile, two S-300 missiles, three Kh-59 missiles, one Kh-31P anti-radar missile and 14 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted nine drones and three Kh-59 missiles over Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Local reports indicate that the S-300 missiles hit grain storage facilities in Pisochyn (Kharkiv) and that the attack damaged residential buildings in Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk). Explosions were also reported in Kropyvnytskyi (Kirovohrad oblast) and Poltava (Poltava oblast).
• STRIKES: Early on 25 February, Ukrainian forces intercepted 16 of 18 Russian-launched Shahed drones. The drones were destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The attack prompted German Foreign Minister Annalena Baaerbock to cancel her visit to Mykolaiv oblast, where falling drone debris damaged energy infrastructure, causing power outages. The local authorities reported that the drones damaged infrastructure facilities in Khmelnytskyi.
• STRIKES: Early on 24 February, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, three Kh-59 missiles and 12 Shahed drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted two Kh-59 missiles and 12 drones over Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts. Early on 23 February, Ukraine’s air force destroyed 23 of 31 Shahed drones launched by Russia over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Poltava. Russia also launched three S-300 drones, one Kh-31P missile and two Kh-22 missiles (which were not intercepted); residential buildings were damaged in Dnipro and Odesa.
• STRIKES: On 25 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky underscored Ukraine’s reliance on Western air defence systems and ammunition. Zelensky explained that there are no alternatives to Western equipment, especially the US-made Patriot system. However, he noted that such systems are particularly expensive (around USD 1.5 bn). Throughout the war, the Patriot system has proven to be effective in countering Russian missiles. For instance, Ukraine’s air force reported that since the beginning of the war, 43 ballistic missiles and 25 Kinzhal ‘hypersonic’ ballistic missiles have been intercepted, highly likely by Patriot systems. However, the limited number of systems and requisite ammunition will undermine Kyiv’s ability to ensure a dense network of air defences.
• STRIKES: On 23 February, Ukrainian forces claimed to have successfully destroyed a Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft between the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar (both Krasnodar Krai, Russia). Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) confirmed the attack without providing details about the operation. On 15 January, another A-50 was reportedly destroyed by Ukrainian forces. Following the latest strike, GUR head Kyrylo Budanov explained that Russia has six operational A-50s; should another of these aircraft be destroyed, Budanov claimed that the ability of the remaining aircraft to carry out round-the-clock duties will be limited. A-50s are long-range radar detection and command aircraft, responsible for co-ordinating targets for Russian strike aircraft and detecting incoming Ukrainian missile attacks. Given Moscow’s limited number of operational A-50s, the loss of the latest aircraft will undermine Russia’s AEW&C capabilities and its readiness to risk further aircraft close to the frontlines to identify ground-based air defence targets.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• AID: On 24 February, several world leaders visited Kyiv (Ukraine) to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Canada and Italy signed security agreements with Ukraine. He stated that the ten-year accord with Ottawa allocates over USD 2.2 bn in macro-financial and defence assistance in 2024 for Kyiv. Rome’s agreement meanwhile aims to maintain military support for Ukraine in 2024, which will be determined through further consultations with Kyiv. The document states that Italy has already extended the relevant legislation to authorise further military support to Ukraine across all of 2024.
• AID: French President Emmanuel Macron is due to host European leaders for a conference later on 26 February in Paris (France) aimed at bolstering Western support for Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Polish President Andrzej Duda and UK Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron are among some of the expected attendees. Macron likely called for the conference to encourage France’s European allies to step up support amid concerns about the viability of long-term US assistance.
• NEGOTIATIONS: The head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, disclosed on 25 February that Kyiv will possibly invite Russian representatives to a future summit on Ukraine’s conditions for peace. While Zelensky insisted that other countries should not push alternative negotiation formats on Ukraine, particularly after various elections across the world throughout 2024, Switzerland aims to hold a Ukraine peace conference by the summer. Yermak stated that Kyiv would possibly present the Russian side with a document detailing Ukraine’s vision for ending the war if the Swiss event is successful. However, even if Russia was to attend, we assess that its delegation would almost certainly reject Ukraine’s proposed peace settlement out of hand.
• NEGOTIATIONS: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated on 24 February that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants conquest, not peace, in Ukraine. Baerbock noted that Kyiv had been prepared to make concessions to Moscow during negotiations in March 2022 on the basis that Russia was withdrawing its troops. However, given Moscow’s determination to maintain its maximalist war goals, neither Ukraine nor Russia is currently willing to enter talks to end the war in the coming months. We assess that Kyiv remains committed to reclaiming all of its Russian-occupied territory, while Moscow is highly unlikely to be prepared to make territorial concessions.
• SANCTIONS: The US imposed sweeping sanctions against Russia on 23 February, targeting more than 500 people and entities. The measures targeted Russia’s Mir payment system, its military industrial base, future energy projects and other areas. Washington DC also designated over two dozen entities and individuals in 11 other countries, including China, Serbia and the UAE, underscoring further attempts by the US to weaken Moscow’s ability to evade sanctions. Despite the scale of Western punitive measures following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy has proven to be more resilient than anticipated. Russia will highly likely continue to seek new ways in which to adapt to (and bypass) sanctions throughout the war and after.

FORECAST

OFFENSIVES: To mark the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky held a summit of the Ukrainian leadership on 25 February, at which they discussed the year ahead and the prospects for future offensive operations. During the ‘Ukraine: Year 2024’ summit, Zelensky stated that Russia is preparing to conduct offensive operations ‘at the beginning of the summer, or at the end of May’. He acknowledged that the build-up to this planned offensive will be particularly ‘difficult’ for Ukraine due to blocks on US military aid; we assess that chronic shortages of artillery ammunition will be the single most important factor that will undermine Ukrainian defensive capabilities during this period.

Zelensky stated that Ukraine aims to reduce Russia’s current artillery advantage, which stands at six to one, ahead of this alleged summer offensive. Artillery will continue to prove vital to Ukraine’s future combat operations, with Zelensky acknowledging that Ukraine will lose territory metre by metre unless shortages are resolved. However, as US Congressional disputes continue to delay US aid to Ukraine, it remains unclear when these shortages will be alleviated, despite European states ramping up commitments to support Ukraine in recent months. At the summit, Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov stated that around half of the West’s military aid to Ukraine is not delivered on time. Both Umerov and Zelensky underscored that late weapons deliveries are costing lives and territory at the front; they warned that if such delays serve to extend the current artillery ammunition and air defence missile shortages, Ukraine will likely continue to lose territory this year.

Zelensky officially acknowledged that around 31,000 Ukrainian personnel have been killed since 24 February 2022. He did not, however, provide any details regarding Ukraine’s broader casualty figures, as the disclosure of such information would help to inform Russian military planning. However, the usual wounded-to-killed ratio is around three-to-one. Notably, the Russian opposition outlets Meduza and Mediazona estimated on 24 February that between 66,000 and 88,000 Russian military personnel were killed between February 2022 and December 2023; at the time of writing, they estimate that around 83,000 Russian military personnel have died in total. As US estimates in December 2023 put the total number of Russian casualties at around 315,000, the 83,000 figure would broadly sit within the typical three-to-one wounded-to-killed ratio. Importantly, these losses are highly likely sustainable for Russia given their current recruitment and force generation capabilities; Ukraine’s demographic disadvantages mean that their own losses will be increasingly difficult to offset as the war drags on.

*Ukraine: Russian PSYOP campaign amplifies phishing, disinformation risks for organisations. On 23 February, international news outlets reported that Russia-aligned threat actors have been targeting Ukrainian speakers via a psychological operations (PSYOP) campaign called ‘Operation Texonto’. PSYOP campaigns are conducted to convey selected information to audiences so as to influence their opinions; threat actors have leveraged this technique to raise doubts about the progress of the Russia-Ukraine war. They disseminate emails containing false information about disruption to heating in Ukraine, as well as medicine and food shortages. They are typically sent to Ukrainian government and local energy companies’ employees, as well as ordinary citizens. Russia has supplemented its military action in Ukraine with disinformation campaigns since the beginning of the conflict. Elsewhere, we assess that Russian-affiliated actors are also highly likely to sustain influence operations across Western jurisdictions such as the UK and the US in the short-to-medium term. (Source: Sibylline)

 

29 Feb 24. Ukraine increases use of domestic-made military equipment, official says. Ukraine has significantly increased its use of domestic-made weapons and military equipment, a senior defence official said on Thursday, as Kyiv aims to become more self-sufficient amid faltering Western military aid.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for Ukraine to strengthen its domestic defence industry as it struggles to fend off Russia’s two-year-old invasion and faces potential cuts in military aid from the U.S., its biggest backer.

Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havryliuk said 46 types of domestically produced equipment had been sent to the armed forces during the first two months of 2024, an amount he said was “significantly more” than in the same period last year.

“We are doing every we can so that Ukraine over time becomes as self-sufficient as possible in providing the defence forces with the necessary weapons,” he said in a statement.

Havryliuk also called for Kyiv’s foreign partners to boost investment and participation in joint production with Ukrainian companies.

Ukraine has signed dozens of contracts for joint production or technology exchanges with Western allies.

German defence company Rheinmetall, one of the world’s biggest producers of artillery and tank shells, said this month it would open an ammunition factory in Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)

 

29 Feb 24. New Zealand announces funding, training commitment to 2025 for Ukraine. New Zealand has announced further war contributions to Ukraine following the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of the European country on 24 February this year.

The New Zealand government announced an extension to support until June 2025, as well as additional funding for further military assistance.

That funding includes a total $25.9mi to Ukraine, included to the United Kingdom-administered International Fund for Ukraine to procure weapons and ammunition for Ukraine ($6.5 million), as humanitarian assistance ($7 million), and funding to the World Bank’s Ukraine Relief, Recovery, Reconstruction and Reform Trust Fund ($3 million).

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said the new funding brings the total value of New Zealand’s assistance pledged in the past two years to more than $100 million.

“The government is pleased to announce NZDF’s meaningful, visible and highly credible deployment of skilled personnel in support of Ukraine will extend until June 2025,” he said.

“Up to 97 NZDF personnel will continue to train Ukrainian soldiers and provide intelligence, liaison and logistics support.

“It demonstrates New Zealand’s unwavering support for Ukraine and our serious commitment to defending an international rules-based system that reflects our values and supports our interests.”

The New Zealand Defence Force will also match the changing needs of Ukraine and partners, to conduct specialised training in combat casualty care, combat engineering, leadership, and maritime explosive ordnance disposal training in Europe, according to Minister Peters.

NZDF personnel have already trained more than 2,700 AFU infantry recruits since contributions to the UK-based program began in June 2022. An artillery training team was the first on the ground, followed by infantry training groups. The NZDF’s sixth rotation of personnel to deliver infantry training is currently in the UK.

Commander Joint Forces New Zealand Rear Admiral Jim Gilmour said more than 500 NZDF personnel had been deployed under the NZDF’s Operation Tīeke, while many others had also supported those deployments from New Zealand.

“The NZDF trains to be ready to deploy when the government asks us to,” he said.

“Operation Tīeke centres on supporting Ukraine in their time of need. The government’s announcement of an extension to our mandate sees this support continue and with further specialist teams putting their skills to the fore to help Ukraine with their fight.”

Land Component Commander Brigadier Matt Weston said this training ensured AFU personnel were combat ready.

“The volunteer Ukrainian recruits arrive with little to no military experience, and after five weeks of training, they leave as soldiers.”

“As our personnel help prepare Ukrainians for the realities they will face in war, they are also increasing their connections with partner nations and growing their professional skills to best support those they are working with and alongside.”

(Source: Defence Connect)

 

29 Feb 24. Vladimir Putin warns of wider conflict over Ukraine. Russian president makes most Vladimir Putin has said that western support for Ukraine risks triggering a global war, in his most explicit threat to use nuclear weapons since he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. In his state of the nation speech on Thursday, the Russian president said claims that his country might attack Europe were “nonsense”, but warned that Russia could strike back against western countries in response. Putin said in the address to the country’s political elite that western support for Ukraine “really risks a conflict using nuclear weapons, which means the destruction of all of civilisation”. Referring to French President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to rule out sending western troops to Ukraine this week, Putin said Russia remembered “the fate of those who once sent their contingents to our country. Now the consequences for possible interveners will be much more tragic”. “We also have weapons that can strike targets on their territory,” Putin added. He said western supplies of advanced weaponry and the prospect of a Nato troop deployment risked nuclear conflict. Putin added: “They think this is some kind of game. They are blinded by their own superiority complex.” Recommended Russian politics Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike He confirmed Russia would beef up troop deployments on its border with Nato countries to “neutralise threats” created by Sweden and Finland joining the alliance following his invasion of Ukraine. Russia was prepared to hold dialogue with the US on arms control, Putin said. However, he boasted that the country’s nuclear forces were fully ready for use, and added that work would soon conclude on new weapons systems that he claims are essentially impossible to shoot down. “We are dealing with a state whose ruling circles are taking openly hostile actions against us. They are planning in all seriousness to discuss strategic stability with us while simultaneously, as they say themselves, trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us on the battlefield,” Putin said. He said Russia would work to “create the outlines for equal and inseparable security in Eurasia,” adding that “without a sovereign, strong Russia no stable world order is possible”. (Source: FT.com)

 

28 Feb 24. USAF General Says Ukraine Desperately Needs Ammunition. In the last two years of fighting in Ukraine, Russians have not hesitated to initiate frontal assaults with no concern about sacrificing their own people, said Air Force Lt. Gen. Leonard J. Kosinski, Joint Staff logistics director.

Despite Ukraine’s ability to skillfully incorporate high-end technology into the fight, it’s imperative that they receive more munitions, he said today on a panel at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C.

“Sometimes you just need bullets to be able to fight against bullets and onslaughts of folks,” he said.

Over the last few decades, the U.S. has not adequately prepared itself for near-peer competition with mass production of munitions and other warfighting materiel, he said, adding the U.S. is now making better decisions to increase that capability.

The U.S. is also relying on the defense industrial bases of partners nations for sustainment to Ukraine, he said.

The Defense Department is preparing itself for the near-peer fight by investing in readiness and modernization in some creative ways — such as the replicator initiative, which will get weapons produced at speed and scale, he said.

Jan Jires, an official with the Czech Republic defense ministry, said that Europe’s contribution to Ukraine’s war effort has been far better than anyone expected.

For instance, a single German company is now producing more 155 mm artillery shells than the entire U.S. defense industry combined, he said.

“The combined value of European support to Ukraine, financial, humanitarian and military , has been larger than what came from the United States. And that’s a good thing,” Jires said.

That said, Europe should be doing even more, he added. “It’s in our vital interests.”

Rebeccah Heinrichs, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said, “Ukraine needs weapons immediately.”

Getting supplemental passed benefits not just Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, it also benefits the U.S. industrial base, she noted.

The American people need to be reminded why European security is directly related to U.S. security, she said.

“Russia remains not just an acute threat to the American people and to the United States of America, it’s a chronic threat,” she said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

29 Feb 24. Russia takes back village at heart of Ukrainian counter offensive gains.

Russian troops have reportedly entered Robotyne, the fiercely contested village in the southern Zaporizhzhia region which Ukraine recaptured last year.

Citing Russia’s defence ministry, the Interfax news agency said Russian troops have taken over some buildings in the village, but it was unclear whether Ukrainian troops have completely withdrawn from it.

Ukraine’s recapture of Robotyne in late August was one of the few successes of its counteroffensive last year.

The settlement is 10 km south of the frontline town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region on an important road towards Tokmak, a Russian-occupied road and rail hub.

The news of Russia’s entry into the village comes as Putin is due to deliver his annual address to parliament and the nation today and Moscow’s recent important capture of Avdiivka.

 

28 Feb 24. Putin faces £600m war plane blitz: Ukraine downs 10 Russian warplanes in 10 days including seven £39m bombers, two £34m jets and £260m spy plane in major blow to Moscow

Vladimir Putin’s air force has been blitzed by Ukraine over the past ten days – with ten of its warplanes worth a total of £600 m reportedly wiped out in an embarrassing setback for the invaders.

As it announced that two of Russia’s Su-34 fighter-bombers had been blasted out of the sky yesterday, Ukraine’s defence ministry boasted that it had eliminated ten enemy planes in as many days – a rate of loss that Russia’s air force cannot sustain.

The loss of the bombers will have set Putin’s army back ms, with each worth £39m ($50m). Other planes Kyiv claims to have taken out this month include two SU-35 jets, costing £34m ($43m) each, and an A-50U AWACS reconnaissance plane – which intel suggests cost Russia £260m ($330m).

The strikes will be a welcome success for Kyiv, but come at a difficult time, with Russia advancing and recently claiming its first major victory since May in Avdiivka after months of bitter fighting.

Ukraine’s weapons supplies have also been choked, with shortages of munitions including its crucial 90-mile-range, US-made Patriot air-defense missiles – making it even more important that the Ukrainian forces hit their targets.

Dramatic images have emerged over recent days showing what Ukraine says is Russian fighter jets and a reconnaissance plane plummeting out of the sky over the east of the country.

Posting on Telegram, Ukraine’s Air Force Commander used the success as a warning to Russian troops: ‘I advise the occupiers to see their relatives before each flight, just in case. Because who knows, he will be lucky or not this time.’

He added that Russia would be wise to reconsider its ‘airborne meat assaults’ given the level of destruction to its air force in such a short time span.

‘Russian planes continue to fall!’ the Ukrainian defense ministry said.

Ten days before, Ukraine shot down two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter in the skies over eastern Ukraine, according to the air force chief.

Russian FighterBomber Telegram channel initially claimed there were ‘no losses’ and that the Ukrainians were ‘lying’.

Other Russian channels ‘confirmed that the Ukrainian military shot down at least one Russian Su-35 aircraft’.

‘On the morning of February 17, 2024, in the eastern (sector), units of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed three enemy aircraft at once – two Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter,’ Mykola Oleshchuk wrote on Telegram.

‘This is our land, and our sky!’ he declared victoriously, adding: ‘There will be more…don’t hang around!’

He was true to his word, with successive strikes reportedly seeing another Su-25 and five more Su-34s obliterated.

The destruction of the nine jets would represent a loss to Moscow of advanced warplanes worth in excess of £341m in total.

On February 23, Ukraine dealt yet another huge blow to Moscow’s forces, downing a £270m ($330m) Russian spy plane over Krasnodar.

Video showed huge plumes of smoke billowing from the wreckage after the A-50U reconnaissance plane’s wing was reportedly torn off by a hit from a revamped S-200 Soviet-era long-range air defence missile – a staggering blow to Russia’s already diminishing collection.

Ten crew were reported to have been found dead at the crash site, though the planes typically carry 15 meaning the death toll could be higher.

It came down in Russia’s Krasnodar region, where Putin’s official Black Sea residence and private £1bn palace are located.

Russia now only has six of its state-of-the art spy planes remaining after another of the pricey aircraft was blasted out of the sky last month, according to Ukraine.

Russian sources initially blamed friendly fire but Ukrainian sources said the A-50U was downed ‘as part of a joint operation of [Kyiv’s] Main Intelligence Directorate and the Ukrainian Air Force’.

The loss of the A-50U – the second in six weeks – will mean a severe blow to Putin’s aerial reconnaissance, harming Russia’s ability to pinpoint targets for missile strikes and monitor Ukrainian battlefield deployments.

Some accounts say it was flying over the Sea of Azov when it was hit.

It came down near Primorsko-Akhtarsk.

Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence directorate said: ‘The last flight of the A-50U took place on February 23, 2024 at 15:50 from the Akhtubinsk airfield and was supposed to carry out terrorist tasks of the aggressor state of Russia near the settlements of Primorsko-Akhtarsk – Zernograd.

‘An abrupt stop of the Bumblebee radar complex’s work…was recorded by GUR’s radio technical intelligence stations at 18:45.

‘The fire damage of the modernised A-50U of the Russian Air Force was confirmed by the radio interception of the conversation of the Su-35 cover crew.

‘One of the Russian pilots reports on the radio that he observed the work of air defense, flash and explosions.’

‘Congratulations to the occupiers on the Defender of the Fatherland day,’ said a sardonic Ukrainian aroid force commander General Mykola Oleshchuk.

Since receiving advanced Western air defence systems, Kyiv has been able to deploy these weapons to pose an increasing threat to Russian aviation.

The successes come as the war grinds into its third year, with Kyiv continuing to lobby for support as Moscow holds its line and achieved recent gains in the east of the country. (Source: Daily Mail)

 

28 Feb 24. German Firm Helsing to Help Ukraine Add AI to Domestically-Produced Drones. Ukraine has agreed with German tech firm Helsing GmbH to incorporate artificial intelligence into Ukrainian-made drones and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The agreement resulted from multiple conferences over the past year aimed at establishing joint weapons manufacturing partnerships between Ukraine and other nations.

The memorandum of understanding on security and defense cooperation was signed on 24 February 2024 by Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, and Helsing CEO Gundbert Scherf.

The deal was announced by Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office of Ukraine, who stated:

“Artificial intelligence in UAVs on the battlefield is the reality of war in 2024. There will be AI in Ukrainian drone production… This memorandum has a specific goal – strengthening Ukrainian defense technology, introducing AI into UAVs of our production.”

Yermak added that Ukraine is

“actively working with European countries, looking for partners, developing and arming ourselves.”

Helsing GmbH specializes in integrating artificial intelligence into defense technologies. It partners with prominent German arms company Rheinmetall and works closely with Germany’s Federal Defense Ministry.

By adding advanced AI and autonomous capabilities to Ukraine’s expanding drone arsenal and other weaponry, the deal with Helsing will bolster Ukraine’s technological edge as the war continues. Ukrainian forces plan to unveil more defense innovations and surprises for Russia in 2024. (Source: UAS VISION/Euromaidan Press)

 

27 Feb 24. North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea says. North Korea has shipped about 6,700 containers carrying ms of munitions to Russia since July to support its war against Ukraine, in a sign of ongoing arms transfers, South Korean media reported on Tuesday, citing the defence minister.

At a briefing on Monday for local media, Minister Shin Won-sik said the containers might carry more than 3 m 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds.

“It could possibly be a mix of the two, and you can say that at least several m shells have been sent,” Shin said, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Hundreds of North Korean munitions factories are running at around 30% of their capacity due to a lack of raw materials and electricity, but those producing artillery shells for Russia were operating “at full swing,” he added, without elaborating on the source of the information.

Seoul and Washington have accused Pyongyang and Moscow of trading arms and condemned the North for supplying weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine. Both countries have denied it even as they pledged to strengthen military cooperation.

The U.S. State Department, in a fact sheet, opens new tab released on Friday, said that North Korea has delivered more than 10,000 containers of munitions or related materials to Russia since September.

In exchange, North Korea has received some 9,000 containers mostly containing food supplies, which Shin said has helped stabilise prices there.

An official at Seoul’s defence ministry said it could not confirm the numbers, but quoted Shin as saying that Russia has sent nearly 30% more containers since July to North Korea than the has North shipped.

Shin said North Korea could fire another satellite as early as next month as Moscow continued to provide technical aid, and Pyongyang has also asked for assistance with aircraft and ground mobility equipment technology.

“It is unclear how much Russia will give, but the more dependent Russia gets on North Korean artillery shells, the greater the degree of Russian technology transfers will be,” he said, according to Yonhap. (Source: Reuters)

 

27 Feb 24. Britain rejects Macron’s plan to send Nato troops to Ukraine.

World leaders line up to rebuff French president amid fears of direct confrontation with Russia

Britain has rejected a French plan to send Nato troops into Ukraine, warning that it would be a “major escalation” in the war.

Emmanuel Macron had suggested that several EU and Nato countries were considering deploying soldiers to the battlefield.

The French president, speaking after a meeting of EU leaders in Paris intended to galvanise support for Ukraine, said boots on the ground should “not be ruled out” as he urged the West to do “everything needed so Russia cannot win the war”.

In parliament on Tuesday, Stéphane Séjourné, France’s foreign minister, stressed that troops could be sent to Ukraine on training missions or to build weapons without breaching a “belligerence threshold”.

However, the Kremlin warned that any deployment would “inevitably” lead to all-out war between Russia and Nato.

And on Tuesday, Britain, Germany and several other EU nations rebuffed Mr Macron’s proposal. The US also said it would not be sending troops into Ukraine.

Mr Macron’s proposal broke one of the last remaining taboos in the Nato alliance, which has sought to avoid direct conflict with Moscow for fear of escalation.

With a $60 bn US aid package stalled in Congress, the French president was seeking to cast himself as the most aggressive leader in the Nato alliance, analysts said.

The UK has previously positioned itself as Ukraine’s most vocal backer, often leading the way on donations, such as tanks and long-range missiles, to pressure Western allies to follow suit.

Responding to Mr Macron’s proposal on Tuesday, Downing Street said there were no plans for a deployment of British personnel.

“Beyond the small number of personnel in-country supporting the armed forces, we do not have any plans to make large-scale deployments,” Rishi Sunak’s spokesman said. A small number of troops currently support Kyiv’s military, including in medical training. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

27 Feb 24. Ukraine faces ‘several months’ of ammunition shortages.  Ukraine is likely to be at a disadvantage in the war against Russia for “several months”, the head of the UK Armed Forces has said.  Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said that Ukraine’s troops were “struggling in terms of its ammunition and its stockpiles” while US military aid is blocked in Congress and Europe is unable to fill the gap. The armed forces chief said Russia is “at the tactical level gaining relatively small amounts of territory” and conducting active military operations in Chasiv Yar, where the Ukrainian forces retreated to after leaving Bakhmut. His comments come a day after Russia gained more ground near Avdiivka. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

27 Feb 24. Germany’s deputy chancellor said there was “no chance” of sending ground troops to Ukraine and, in a rebuff to France, told Paris it should instead supply Kyiv with more weapons. Robert Habeck rejected French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion this week that a troop deployment to Ukraine should not be ruled out, and central European leaders also rounded on the idea. “I’m pleased that France is thinking about how to increase its support for Ukraine, but if I could give it a word of advice — supply more weapons,” Habeck said on Tuesday. Asked by a reporter whether German troops could be sent to Ukraine, he said: “There is no chance of that.” Habeck added that it had always been Berlin’s “clear policy” that “German soldiers won’t go to Ukraine”. Instead, he called on France to “do what you can now and give Ukraine the munitions and the tanks that can be supplied now”. Olaf Scholz, German chancellor, also shot down the idea on Tuesday, a day after Macron’s comments, while Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said his country was “not considering sending our soldiers to Ukraine”. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk maintained that Warsaw “does not plan to send its troops to Ukraine”, adding that the focus should instead be “on supporting Ukraine as much as possible in its military effort”. A Nato official said there were no plans for the alliance to put combat troops on the ground. “Ukraine has the right to self-defence, and we have the right to support them,” the official said. “That is what Nato allies are doing and will continue to do.” But a senior European defence official said Macron’s statement was about creating deterrence and ambiguity towards Russia, adding: “Everyone knows there are western special forces in Ukraine — they’ve just not acknowledged it officially.” French officials also said western troops could potentially be involved through limited missions such as demining, maintaining and repairing weapons systems, or helping to secure borders of other countries threatened by Russia, such as Moldova. Macron made his suggestion at a meeting of 25 European leaders in Paris on Monday at which he said the option of sending western troops to Ukraine had been discussed. Recommended Interview EU defence ‘Naive’ Europe must spend more to deter Russia, says Danish PM While acknowledging that the summit had not reached consensus “for sending in ground troops, in an official and declared way”, the French president told reporters that “we will do everything needed so Russia cannot win the war”. The Kremlin has said a conflict between Russia and Nato would be inevitable if the western alliance sent troops to fight in Ukraine. “In that case, it wouldn’t be likely, but inevitable. That’s how we assess it,” Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, told reporters on Tuesday. Peskov said Nato countries should “ask themselves whether it’s in their and their citizens’ interests” after Macron said the idea “could not be ruled out”. (Source: FT.com)

 

26 Feb 24. Casualties for Russia in Avdiivka Seizure Surpass Soviet-Afghan War Losses. The protracted battle for Avdiivka, a town in eastern Ukraine, has resulted in a staggering number of casualties for Russian forces, possibly surpassing the fatalities experienced during the entire 10-year Soviet-Afghan war. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has highlighted the severe toll on Russian military personnel as they endeavored to capture Avdiivka, a campaign that began in October and concluded with Russian control earlier this month. According to Ukrainian military estimates, the battle for Avdiivka resulted in up to 47,000 Russian soldiers either killed or injured. This figure starkly contrasts with the up to 25,000 Soviet soldiers believed to have died over the course of the Soviet-Afghan war. Russian opposition media outlets Meduza and Mediazona estimated that between 66,000 to 88,000 Russian personnel have died in the conflict in Ukraine from February 2022 to December 2023. Their analysis, based on confirmed Russian deaths, inheritance cases, and mortality data, suggests that approximately 83,000 Russian military personnel may have perished since the onset of the full-scale invasion. These estimates align with US intelligence assessments, which reported 315,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine, considering a standard ratio of three wounded for every fatality. Despite these significant losses, Russian forces continue their offensive operations in Ukraine, sustained by mobilization efforts that generate new forces at a rate roughly equivalent to current Russian losses. This approach allows Russian forces to reinforce attacking units and conduct operational-level rotations regularly. However, the sustainability of such operations, especially at a higher tempo that could lead to even greater losses, remains uncertain. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

 

27 Feb 24. Russia will go to war with Nato if troops are deployed to Ukraine, says Kremlin. The Kremlin has warned that a conflict between Russia and Nato would be inevitable if European members of the alliance send troops to fight in Ukraine. French president Emmanuel Macron opened the door on Monday to European nations sending troops to Ukraine, although he cautioned that there was no consensus at this stage as allies agreed to ramp up efforts to deliver more munitions to Kyiv.

“Nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we must so that Russia does not win,” Mr Macron said.

Asked about Mr Macron’s remarks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that if it came to pass, talks would have to change to the inevitability of a Nato-Russia conflict.

“In that case, we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability (of a direct conflict),” Mr Peskov said.

Discussion by Western democracies of direct military intervention in Ukraine’s war against Russia is good and shows awareness of the risk to Europe from Russian aggression, a senior Ukrainian presidential official told Reuters.

“This shows, firstly, an absolute awareness of the risks posed to Europe by a militaristic, aggressive Russia,” presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

26 Feb 24. Ukraine to boost arsenal with Nato-standard rifles through Czech manufacturer. Ukroboronprom partners with Česká zbrojovka to assemble CZ BREN 2 Rifles, enhancing defence capabilities. Ukraine’s defence landscape is set for an upgrade as Ukroboronprom, the country’s defence conglomerate, has formalised a deal with Česká zbrojovka, a Czech arms manufacturer. The partnership aims to assemble CZ BREN 2 rifles, widely recognised for their NATO-standard specifications, within Ukraine’s borders, marking a shift towards modernising the nation’s armed forces.

Under the terms of the agreement, Ukroboronprom secures a license transfer agreement with Česká zbrojovka, enabling the domestic assembly of CZ BREN 2 rifles. This initiative signifies a departure from traditional procurement routes, enabling Ukraine to equip its military with firearms tailored to meet Nato standards.

The CZ BREN 2 model has seen widespread adoption by military and law enforcement agencies worldwide, including the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

General director of Ukroboronprom, Herman Smetanin, hailed the partnership as a pivotal moment for Ukraine’s defence industry.

“Technology transfer from NATO member countries is a key moment for our company, due to successful international partnership and military defence reform. This initiative is an important step on the way to the creation of the arsenal of the free world in Ukraine,” Smetanin said.

Echoing Smetanin’s sentiments, Jan Zaits, CEO of Česká zbrojovka, said that the move would support Ukraine’s efforts for increased adoption of Nato-standard equipment.

“This first step towards a full-scale technology transfer project for the CZ BREN 2 rifle is a direct consequence of its successful use by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Zaits said.

The Czech Government has had a strong reaction to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, and public opinion has swung heavily against Russia. GlobalData’s intelligence on the Czech Republic’s defence market outlines that Czechia remains a major donor of aid to Ukraine, both military and otherwise.

In a plenary session on 11 November, 2023, the Czech Senate renewed its mandate to provide military aid and training to Ukraine, extending the stay of Ukrainian forces in Czech territory until 31 December, 2024. The initiative aims to enhance Ukrainian military capabilities and allow the flow of Ukrainian personnel across Europe.

The CZ BREN 2 production technology transfer project was unveiled at the First International Forum of Defense Industries in Kyiv, signalling Ukraine’s commitment to modernisation and self-sufficiency in defence production.

As Ukraine forges ahead with plans to assemble Nato-standard rifles domestically, the collaboration between Ukroboronprom and Česká zbrojovka heralds a new era of self-reliance in the country’s defence industry. With CZ BREN 2 rifles poised to strengthen Ukraine’s operational capabilities, the partnership shows a shared commitment to security and stability in the region. (Source: army-technology.com)

 

23 Feb 24. The Netherlands to Conclude a 10-year Security Agreement With Ukraine. The Netherlands will in the near future conclude a security agreement with Ukraine for the next 10 years. This agreement is a signal from the Dutch government that the Netherlands intends to support Ukraine also in the longer term.

On 12 July last year, during the NATO summit in Vilnius, the Netherlands announced that, like the G7 countries, it would enter into security arrangements with Ukraine. The Netherlands has been in talks with Ukraine since then in order to determine the details. The agreement will include provisions regarding military support for the medium and long term and cooperation to strengthen the defence industry. It will also provide for increasing Ukraine’s cyber resilience and the Ukrainian army’s interoperability with NATO forces.

As Netherlands Minister of Defence Ollongren explained, Ukraine is not only fighting for its own freedom and security, it is also fighting for Europe’s freedom and security. She went on to say that with the security agreement announced today by the Dutch government, the Netherlands will enter into arrangements with Ukraine regarding a shared freedom for the next 10 years. Ukraine must be able to count on receiving support not only in the short term, but in the long term as well. In cooperation with international partners, the Netherlands is helping Ukraine to strengthen its IT infrastructure and is training Ukrainian defence personnel in several areas. With this security agreement, the Netherlands will also be sending a strong signal to the Kremlin.

The Netherlands has to date provided over €2.8bn in military support

In a letter to the House of Representatives, the government also reported today that the Netherlands has to date provided over €2.8bn in military support. This support consists of financial contributions to international funds, such as the International Fund for Ukraine. It also includes deliveries of weapons, ammunition and materiel directly to Ukraine from Defence’s own stocks and in cooperation with industry. Furthermore, deliveries are made by various coalitions of partner countries. This support is provided in close consultation with Ukraine and allies.

Since the invasion, Ukraine has inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces at the front, in the air and around and in the Black Sea. Nevertheless, the situation on the ground remains very concerning. To expel Putin’s troops, Ukraine requires major supplies of materiel, particularly ammunition, to enable its forces to operate effectively. International support is playing a crucial role in this regard.

As Netherlands Minister of Defence Ollongren stated, security and freedom come at a price and Ukraine must defeat Russia. She continued by remarking that we are aware of what Russian forces did in the areas that Ukraine has managed to liberate since the summer, and can therefore imagine what might be happening now in the occupied eastern and southern parts of the country. The Netherlands is therefore supporting Ukraine in its struggle. It is essential to continue and intensify the provision of military support to Ukraine, not least because it is also fighting for our freedom.

24 F-16s

Together with Denmark and the United States, the Netherlands is leading the air force coalition of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG). The Dutch government has decided to ready 24 F-16 fighter aircraft for delivery. In this coalition, Defence is also working on a broad support package that includes spare parts and ammunition in order to maintain the operational status of the aircraft.

Training courses

The Netherlands has contributed to 24 different training courses. These courses include basic training, such as that provided in the UK-led Operation Interflex. To date, almost 35,000 Ukrainian service members have been trained to fight in their country. Ukrainian navy personnel are currently undergoing training in the Netherlands on minehunters that will be made available to the Ukrainian navy from 2025.

Furthermore, the Netherlands contributed to specialist training courses and to collective company, battalion and staff and leadership training courses.

The minister of defence is proud of the work that Defence is doing to support Ukraine. She explained that over the past two years, Defence has worked very hard at all levels and at different locations to organise support for Ukraine. The minister is therefore grateful and very proud of Defence personnel and of everything that they have achieved while simultaneously making every effort to strengthen the armed forces of the Netherlands. (Source: ASD Network)

 

25 Feb 24. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told the US that Ukraine needs the $60bn aid currently stuck in a congressional stand-off within a month. Zelenskyy said the long-awaited package was about military not financial support and that he was unsure Ukraine would be able to find the types and amounts of weapons it needed if the funding did not materialise. “Our position on the battlefield will be weaker [without it],” Zelenskyy said, speaking at a conference in Kyiv on Sunday. He gave the example of US-made Patriot air-defence systems, which have helped protect key cities from Russian missiles, but cost around $1.5bn and which Ukraine could not afford without US support. Zelenskyy said Europe could not replace the US in terms of weapons supply, pointing to the continent’s shortage of air-defence systems, although he said it could supply more long-range missiles. The EU has provided Ukraine with a €50bn aid package, but this is mostly financial rather than military support. If the US does not pass the bill, “it will leave me wondering what world we are living in”, Zelenskyy said, but added that he was confident that the US Congress would ultimately agree to the package. Although Ukraine would “search for others, loans and exert pressure on partners” if needed, he added. In a show of solidarity with Ukraine, western leaders arrived in Kyiv on Saturday to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. But the main thrust of western backing still lies in the US aid package which is beyond the control of the White House or Europe. Following Zelenskyy’s comments, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan pressed Republican congressional leaders to unlock assistance to Ukraine. “We need money to be able to provide the weapons to Ukraine. We don’t have the money. Only Congress can provide the money,” Sullivan said in an interview with CNN on Sunday. He called on House Speaker Mike Johnson to “bust through the politics in his caucus” and put US President Joe Biden’s aid package request to a floor vote. Zelenskyy reiterated during his speech that Ukraine had no plans to enter into negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite the deteriorating situation on the front and the gap in crucial military aid from the US. Russia has not been invited to the four peace talks Ukraine has held over the past year in Europe and the Middle East, with the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, saying that the Kremlin would only be asked after a change in Russian leadership. Zelenskyy characterised negotiating as a dead end for Ukraine and Ukrainians. “The hardest bit was two years ago and we have no alternative. If we lose, there will be no us,” he said. He also rebutted reports that Ukraine’s military losses were in the hundreds of thousands, citing a total of 31,000 soldiers killed but declining to confirm injury numbers. Russia’s total casualties were around 500,000, he claimed. But Zelenskyy’s figures fall well short of the 70,000 Ukrainians killed that US officials gave to The New York Times in August — and many more have died since while repelling fierce Russian attacks in Ukraine’s east, where Russia is trying to capture land. Russia took the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka last week, after four months of fighting. Russian forces have since advanced westwards, capturing previously Ukrainian-controlled village Pobeda in the Donetsk region, according to a Ukrainian commander from the 24th brigade. Recommended News in-depth War in Ukraine Visual analysis: Ukraine’s war of survival enters third year Ukraine defence minister Rustem Umerov, who also spoke at the conference, said that half of western military aid was being delivered late, leading to the loss of territory and people. But overall, Ukrainian officials emphasised their belief that western support would continue and that they would be able to find solutions in order to win the war against Russia. “We already have a plan for 2024, but we will not talk about it publicly. The plan is powerful, strong and will give us not only hope but a result in 2024,” said Umerov. To mitigate the deficit created by wavering US support, Ukraine planned to triple domestic weapons production, said Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries. (Source: FT.com)

 

26 Feb 24. Ukraine claims to down another Russian early warning and control plane. Ukrainian forces downed a Russian early warning and control aircraft Friday, the air force chief said — a major win for the country as its army fights to repel persistent Russian attacks along the front line as the war enters its third year.

Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk thanked Ukraine’s military intelligence for helping down the Russian A-50 aircraft on Russia’s military holiday Friday.

“Congratulations to the occupiers on the Defender of the Fatherland day,” Oleshchuk said on a sardonic note.

Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the United Nations Security Council on Friday afternoon in New York that as it was discussing the war, an air raid was taking place and a residential building in the southern port city of Odessa was hit. He said two civilians were “heavily wounded” and taken to hospital.

Ukrainian media carried footage purportedly showing a massive fire that erupted when the large warplane crashed in the Krasnodar region on the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.

The Russian military didn’t comment on the Ukrainian claim, but emergency officials in the Krasnodar region reported that a plane crashed in the area without identifying it. Several Russian military bloggers confirmed the plane’s loss and some alleged that it was downed in a friendly fire accident.

If confirmed, the plane’s downing would mark the loss of the second such aircraft in just over a month. Ukrainian officials said the country’s military downed an A-50 over the Sea of Azov on Jan. 14. The Russian military never commented on the Ukrainian claim, but Russian bloggers and some media confirmed the aircraft’s loss.

Ukraine’s military intelligence said the A-50 was shot down over the Sea of Azov, describing it as “another serious blow to the potential and capabilities of terrorist Moscow.” It published a diagram purportedly showing its flight path, noting that the Russian military used the aircraft that costs $350m to direct missile attacks on Ukraine.

The A-50, which is capable of spotting targets up to 650 kilometers (400 miles) away, is a key command center aircraft that relays information to troops on the ground. Such planes are fundamental tools in helping direct Russian battlefield movements in Ukraine. It carries a large radar on its top and typically has a crew of 15. The Russian air force reportedly has been operating a fleet of only nine such aircraft.

If the downing of the precious Russian air asset is confirmed, it will serve as a major morale boost for Ukraine after the loss of Avdiivka, a strategic eastern city. It was captured by Russian forces last weekend after a ferocious four-month battle in which they brought to bear their significant battlefield advantage in men, aircraft and artillery.

Emboldened by its first major triumph in the war in nine months, Moscow appears determined to leverage its superiority as it shifts its economy onto a war footing.

The Russian plane’s downing will also be certain to impress Ukraine’s Western allies.

Kyiv officials have pleaded with Ukraine’s Western partners to accelerate delivery of military aid so its forces can hold out against the onslaught. The front line, running more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) across eastern and southern Ukraine, has not shifted much in the run-up to the war’s two-year anniversary on Feb. 24. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

 

24 Feb 24. Two Years in, Russia’s War on Ukraine Continues to Pose Threat to Global Security. Russia’s invasion and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine is today not just an assault on Ukrainian freedom and liberty, but also a threat to global order, said U.S. officials.

Two years ago today, on Feb. 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, Russia has failed to capture Kyiv, take control of the Ukrainian government, or stifle the spirit of the Ukrainian people.

“The scale of Putin’s blunder is especially stark today,” said Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in a statement yesterday. “The Kremlin’s forces failed to win the Battle of Kyiv, failed to topple Ukraine’s democratically elected government, and failed to crush the will of the Ukrainian people.

“Ukraine has retaken more than half of the sovereign territory that was grabbed by the Kremlin’s forces in 2022,” he continued. “And as a result of Putin’s unprovoked war, Russia has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties, lost significant equipment, and severely set back its military modernization program.”

Russia’s war in Ukraine is not just a threat to Ukraine or the nations that share a border with it. Russia’s war in Ukraine serves as a threat to all of Europe and the rest of the world, including the United States, President Joe Biden said.

“The American people and people around the world understand that the stakes of this fight extend far beyond Ukraine,” Biden said in a statement released yesterday. “Ten years ago, Putin occupied Crimea and created puppet regimes in Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Two years ago, he tried to wipe Ukraine off the map. If Putin does not pay the price for his death and destruction, he will keep going. And the costs to the United States — along with our NATO allies and partners in Europe and around the world — will rise.”

Today, as part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the United States continues to stand with Ukraine, along with international allies and partners, to provide what it needs for its defense now and in the future, Austin said.

“Since 2022, I have regularly convened some 50 countries from around the world as part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group,” Austin said. “This global coalition works together to ensure that Ukraine has the capabilities that it needs to defend its people from Russian aggression and take back its sovereign territory.”

The first contact group meeting happened in April 2022 in Germany. At the time, Austin hosted nearly 40 nations to discuss current and future efforts to provide the support for Ukraine to maintain its sovereignty. Today, that monthly meeting has grown to some 50, like-minded nations that are united in their support of Ukraine’s freedom.

“I hosted the most recent meeting of this contact group just last week, and I was struck again by the steadiness of its members’ collective resolve,” Austin said. “This historic coalition has committed more than $87 bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Putin’s war — including 15 U.S. allies that, as a percentage of , contribute more to Ukraine’s capability needs than the United States.”

Since the start of the Russian invasion, the U.S. has provided, through presidential drawdown authority and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, more than $44.2bn in security assistance to Ukraine.

Presidential drawdown authority allows the president in certain circumstances to withdraw weapons, ammunitions and materiel from existing U.S. military stocks and provide that to other nations. As part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, DOD contracts for the purchase of materiel to be sent.

Included in the materiel that has been sent to Ukraine are: air defense systems, radar systems, artillery systems, tanks, helicopters, ground-combat and support vehicles, unmanned aerial systems, missiles, rockets, and ms of rounds of small arms ammunition.

It’s not just equipment and weapons that is needed by Ukraine. Since the start of Russia’s invasion, the U.S. and partner nations have also provided important training to Ukrainians to improve their combat skills and to help them learn to use the equipment that the U.S. and partners have provided.

After two years of Putin’s reckless and lawless war, we salute Ukraine’s brave defenders, and we wish Ukraine’s unbowed citizens peace, security and freedom.”

The U.S. and partners have trained more than 123,000 Ukrainians at more than 80 locations around the world. The U.S. alone has provided training to some 19,000 Ukrainian service members on combined arms, specific combat platforms, and staff and leadership skills.

Also in the U.S., Ukrainian service members are being trained on the use of the F-16 aircraft. Other Ukrainian service members, both pilots and aircraft maintainers, are also in the United States to attend English-language classes as part of the F-16 training coalition led by Denmark and the Netherlands.

Going forward, Austin said, the U.S. must continue to stand with Ukraine, not just for the sake of Ukraine’s own freedom and security, but for that of the world, as well.

“Today’s grim milestone should spur us all to decide what kind of future we want for our children and grandchildren: an open, secure, and prosperous world of rules and rights or the violent and lawless world of aggression and chaos that Putin seeks,” Austin said. “We support Ukraine’s fight for freedom, both because it is the right thing to do and because doing so is central to America’s continued security. After two years of Putin’s reckless and lawless war, we salute Ukraine’s brave defenders, and we wish Ukraine’s unbowed citizens peace, security and freedom.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company

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