NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Feb 23.

*Moldova-Russia: Reported Transnistrian annexation is likely ‘info op’ aimed at destabilising Chișinău. Reports emerged on 22 February about Moldova’s pro-Russia breakaway region of Transnistria asking to become part of Russia. The Transnistrian Congress of Deputies is due to convene a previously unplanned session on 28 February. A Transnistrian opposition figure claimed on 21 February that Moscow likely ordered the Transnistrian authorities to hold the congress and to make an appeal on behalf of the region’s citizens to join Russia. According to this figure, Russian President Vladimir Putin will address the request at Russia’s Federal Assembly on the following day. In 2006, 97% of the Transnistrian population voted for independence and possible accession to Russia in a referendum that was not internationally recognised. While Transnistria will possibly make such an appeal in the coming days, a Russian annexation is unlikely in the short term given Russia cannot physically reach the territory. However, the latest reports will likely further pressure and destabilise Moldova ahead of its presidential election this autumn; we assess that Russia is possibly establishing ‘information conditions’ to justify hybrid destabilisation efforts before intervening in the name of ‘protecting’ Russian speakers in the region.

*Armenia: Strategic pivot to West will drive regional tensions, risk of Russian-backed destabilisation. During an official visit to France on 21-22 February, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned that Azerbaijan is highly likely to launch an attack against Armenia. Recent deadly cross-border clashes and Baku’s irredentist territorial claims have increased such fears in recent weeks; unconfirmed reports of fresh border clashes on 23 February emerged at the time of writing. The risk of a resumption of a full-scale conflict is increasing, though Pashinyan’s statements are also likely aimed at encouraging Western security assistance amid efforts to pivot away from Russia. Pashinyan announced on 22 February that Yerevan is suspending its participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). He explained that Moscow failed to guarantee Armenia’s regional security due to its focus on the war in Ukraine, prompting Yerevan to seek the support of the EU and the US. We assess that Pashinyan’s geostrategic pivot to the West will almost certainly raise regional tensions not only with Azerbaijan but also its ally Russia; this will increase the risk of Russian-backed destabilisation efforts inside Armenia, as well as Azerbaijani border incursions

*US-Russia: Sanctions signal increased tensions with Russia despite stagnation over Ukraine aid. On 22 February, Deputy US Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo stated that the US will impose sanctions on over 500 new targets to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Adeyemo also noted that the penalties represent Washington DC’s response to Moscow’s role in the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Set to take effect on 23 February, the sanctions will target Russia’s military industrial complex and companies in third countries that facilitate Russia’s access to sanctioned goods. While President Joe Biden’s administration seeks to maintain pressure on Russia with sanctions, sustained policy stagnation in Congress will continue to stall additional security assistance for Ukraine in the near term. We assess that sustained partisanship and policy risks will increase uncertainty regarding US foreign policy related to the Russia-Ukraine war during the run-up to November’s US presidential election. However, increased tensions with Russia and concern over foreign interference will remain high in the long term.

Feb 22.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• DONETSK: The tempo of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka has reduced, though pressure on defending Ukrainian forces remains high
• STRIKES: Reuters reported that Iran has provided Russia with around 400 ballistic missiles; this will enable Russia to maintain a tempo of semi-intensive strikes in the coming weeks
• ASSASSINATIONS: On 19 February, Spanish media reported the death of a Russian defector, Maxim Kuzminov, in the town of Villajoyosa (Spain), underscoring the increased risk of targeting facing Russian dissidents in Europe
• FORECAST: The two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will be marked on 24 February; there will be an increased risk of large-scale missile and drone strikes, including against Kyiv
• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
• DONETSK: On 20 February, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) reported that Russian forces lack the combat effectiveness to exploit their recent capture of Avdiivka immediately. After a period of ‘rest and refit’, Russian forces will likely aim to extend their territorial gains around Avdiivka. In the meantime, the commander of Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, reported on 20 February that Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations, which are reportedly being carried out by small assault groups. The tempo of aviation strikes has also diminished. On the same day, Ukrainian Deputy Commander of the Third Assault Brigade Maksym Zhorin reported that Russian troops are focusing their assaults in the direction of Lastochkyne, a settlement located west of Avdiivka. The officer noted that the intensity of Russian attacks remains high, though much lower than during the capture of Avdiivka. He also stated that Russia retains enough forces to initiate a wider offensive push. However, we assess that this remains unlikely in the coming weeks; Russian forces are more likely to enter a ‘rest and refit’ period, as assessed by DI.
• DONETSK:  On 16 February, an OSINT organisation published data showing that Russia possesses twice the number of units along the Donetsk frontline than Ukraine. The data reflects broader indications that Russia has a distinct numerical superiority along this front, which was a key factor in the capture of Avdiivka. However, Moscow’s push to take Avdiivka has resulted in significantly high losses among its forces.
• DONETSK: A pro-Kremlin milblogger claimed on 18 February that Russian losses during the battle of Avdiivka amounted to around 16,000 soldiers and 300 armoured vehicles. The claims sparked harsh criticism across the pro-Russia information space; the milblogger reportedly committed suicide a few days after he reported on these alleged losses. While the Kremlin refuses to disclose information on losses incurred by its military, the number posited by the milblogger underscores the highly attritional nature of Russia’s military operations. Such losses bring into question Moscow’s ability to sustain such high levels of attrition in the long term.
• DONETSK: Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on 20 February that between 850 and 1,000 Ukrainian personnel ‘appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for’ following the withdrawal from Avdiivka. The outlet cited two unnamed Ukrainian service personnel. Kyiv has subsequently denied these figures, stating that they are far too high and reflect Russian disinformation attempts. It remains unclear how many Ukrainian personnel were captured during the withdrawal.
• KHERSON: On 20 February, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian forces had retaken Krynky, the principal Ukrainian beachhead on the left (east) bank of the Dnieper River, located around 22 miles (36km) to the north-east of Kherson city. However, numerous Russian sources have refuted this claim. Indications point to Russian forces advancing in the vicinity of the settlement. However, they also suggest that Ukrainian forces continue to operate in small numbers; as such it remains likely that Russia does not retain complete control of the town at present, as Shoigu claimed. However, this could change in the coming days as Russia continues its offensive operations.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 19 and 21 February indicates that Russian forces have made advances west and south of Robotyne amid a wider effort to retake the territory that Ukraine liberated during its 2023 counter-offensive. Russian sources have reported that their forces have now reached the outskirts of the town and are attempting to penetrate the centre of the settlement, though there is currently no evidence to support claims that they have entered Robotyne.
• STRIKES: Early on 22 February, Ukrainian air defences intercepted eight of ten Russian-launched Shahed-136/131 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian forces also launched a Kh-31P missile, which was reportedly not intercepted.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 20-21 February, Russian forces launched a medium-scale strike involving various projectiles. The attack included one S-300 missile, one Kh-59 missile, four Kh-22 cruise missiles and 19 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukraine’s’ air defences intercepted one Kh-59 missile over Poltava, where explosions were also reported, and 13 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia. The attack damaged energy infrastructure facilities in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk), causing electricity outages.
• STRIKES: On 20 February, Russian forces launched two S-300/S-400 missiles, one Kh-31 missile and 23 Shahed drones. All the drones were intercepted by Ukrainian forces over Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Falling debris damaged residential buildings in Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk).
• STRIKES: On 21 February, Reuters reported that Iran has provided Russia with around 400 ballistic missiles. A large share of these missiles are reportedly part of the Fateh-110 category of short-range weapons, which have a range of between 186 and 435 miles (300 and 700km). Unnamed Iranian sources quoted by Reuters stated that the shipments of these missiles started in early January after a provisional deal was concluded at the end of 2023; at least four shipments have been completed, with some of them transiting via the Caspian Sea.
• STRIKES: The provision of Iranian missiles to Russia will possibly incentivise Western countries to provide Kyiv with high-precision weaponry. This will possibly include US Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) or even the German Taurus cruise missile (which is due to be debated in the German Bundestag on 22 February). The provision of such weapons would bolster Kyiv’s long-range capabilities, allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory. However, in the meantime, Moscow’s ability to secure supplies of ballistic missiles from Iran and/or North Korea will enable Russia to carry out highly lethal strikes at a semi-intensive tempo against Ukrainian territory.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• ASSASSINATIONS: On 19 February, Spanish media reported the death of a Russian defector, Maxim Kuzminov, in the town of Villajoyosa (Alicante province, Spain). Kuzminov reportedly defected in a Russian military helicopter to the city of Poltava (Ukraine) in August 2023. He then moved to Spain with a Ukrainian passport under a different name. Spanish outlet El Español reported on 20 February, citing its insiders, that whoever carried out the assassination had monitored Kuzminov’s daily routine thoroughly.
• ASSASSINATIONS: The outlet assessed that a professional group that operated with a ‘neatness and precision within the ability of few’ was responsible – strongly implying the involvement of Russian operatives. We previously assessed that there would be an uptick in the likelihood of targeted assassinations of Russian dissidents following the announcement of the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny on 16 February (see Sibylline Alert – Russia – 16 February 2024). While the killing in Spain appears to have been conducted in a professional manner with no evident spillover or bystander collateral damage, the Russian military intelligence (GRU)’s track record indicates that these risks will remain high across Europe in the coming months, including in Spain. Following a letter bomb campaign in 2022 which targeted several high-profile politicians and the Ukrainian embassy in the capital Madrid, the latest incident underscores that Russia almost certainly maintains a significant network of operatives in Spain that is directed by the GRU. We assess that Moscow will highly likely continue to target dissidents across Europe in 2024.
• APPROPRIATIONS: International legal experts have reportedly concluded that it would be lawful to seize frozen Russian central bank assets under international law. Bloomberg reported on 21 February that it had obtained a letter co-signed by ten international law experts and practitioners from France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, as well as other countries. The experts stated that it would be lawful for countries which have frozen Russian state assets to take additional countermeasures against Russia as compensation for the damage that has resulted directly from Moscow’s ‘unlawful conduct’. While the conclusion will possibly mitigate concerns among Ukraine’s allies over the legality of such a move, the risk of tit-for-tat appropriations by Russia will highly likely be sustained if further progress is made in the coming weeks and months.
• SANCTIONS: The EU approved (in principle) a 13th sanctions package against Russia on 21 February. The package coincides with the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to unspecified EU diplomatic insiders, the new measures will add almost 200 entities and individuals to a list of people who are subject to travel bans and/or are restricted in terms of conducting business in the bloc. However, there will reportedly be no fresh sanctions against specific economic sectors. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden stated on 20 February that he will provide details about new sanctions against Russia on 23 February. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that US measures will target Russia’s defence-industrial base, as well as sources of economic revenue for Moscow.

FORECAST

ANNIVERSARY: The two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will be marked on 24 February; we assess that the risk of large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes will therefore be elevated amid a flurry of international commemorative events and summits. Since the start of the year, Russian forces have pivoted their targeting strategy towards fewer numbers of high intensity strikes, using a wide range of missiles and drones in increasingly complex attack patterns to saturate Ukrainian air defences. Russian forces have primarily targeted military-industrial sites during recent high intensity strikes; this is likely to continue in the coming weeks – including over the commemorative weekend.

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction Oleksandr Kubrakov stated on 19 February that Russian missile and drone attacks are targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, rather than heating systems, with the aim of causing maximum damage to the economy. This differs from Russia’s focus during the winter of 2022-23; the last campaign aimed to hit energy infrastructure so as to collapse Ukraine’s overall energy network. This year, the strikes are much more targeted, and aimed at impacting specific industries.

Kyiv will remain a likely target for a large-scale demonstration of Russia’s long-range missile capabilities, including ahead of the Russian presidential election on 15-17 March. The capital has been targeted numerous times during high intensity strikes, with ballistic missiles in particular managing to reach their targets amid an overall reduction in interception rates in early 2024. Russia will likely attempt to keep the pressure on Ukraine’s cities and air defence network as munition shortages worsen, exposing numerous cities and industrial centres to Russian strikes in the coming week, including (but not limited to) Dnipro, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Poltava, Lviv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia.

Unspecified foreign leaders are expected to visit Kyiv on 24 February to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. While it remains highly unlikely that Russia would purposefully target conference centres where foreign leaders are meeting, demonstrative strikes targeting Kyiv’s suburbs are possible during and after the anniversary. Serhiy Nykyforov, the spokesperson for President Volodymyr Zelensky, stated on 21 February that these visits will not simply be symbolic, but that they will also yield ‘practical results’. This possibly means further aid pledges and/or measures to increase co-operation with Kyiv. Nykyforov also disclosed that senior Ukrainian officials are preparing to hold a conference on 25 February to provide an ‘honest conversation’ focusing on Ukraine’s path in 2024. The conference will focus on the future of Ukraine’s military and its development, as well as Kyiv’s ambitions to join the EU and NATO. Security guarantees and business support initiatives will also be discussed, among other topics. The conference will likely seek to outline Ukraine’s military goals, while also bolstering morale as the full-scale invasion enters its third year.

*Poland-Ukraine: Protest-related disruption will continue; significant pro-Russia sentiment is unlikely. On 21 February, the chairman of the Polish Agricultural Organisation, Sławomir Izdebski, dismissed allegations that pro-Russia sentiment is present among protesting farmers. His comments came after the Polish foreign ministry warned that extreme groups were attempting to infiltrate the protest movement (potentially ‘under the influence of Russian agents’) after pro-Russia slogans emerged at nationwide protests on 20 February. The protests are strongly backed by the hard-right (and anti-Ukrainian) Confederation party. However, we assess that pro-Russia sentiment among the protesters is minimal; the emergence of such slogans likely reflects the culmination of frustration at what the protesters perceive to be inaction by Warsaw. Izdebski stated that a new proposal would be presented to the government shortly. In the meantime, ongoing protests at six Poland-Ukraine border crossings will continue to drive supply chain disruption.

*Lithuania-Belarus: Additional border closures will drive low-moderate supply chain risks. On 21 February, Lithuania announced that it would close the Lavoriškės (Vilnius county) and Raigardas (Alytus county) checkpoints along its border with Belarus from 1 March. This will bring the total number of closed checkpoints to four following the closures of the Šumskas (Vilnius county) and Tverečius (Utena county) checkpoints in August 2023. Interior Minister Agnė Bilotaitė reported that the government is considering a complete closure of Lithuania’s border with Belarus, though this would require a co-ordinated decision involving Latvia and Poland. Bilotaitė also referenced concerns over the ‘increased activities of Belarusian intelligence’ operatives in Lithuania. The additional closures will likely increase congestion through the Medininkai crossing (the largest of Lithuania’s checkpoints), driving low-to-moderate supply chain disruption. While the complete closure of the border remains unlikely in the near term, we assess that possible future allegations surrounding Russian and/or Belarusian espionage or destabilisation campaigns would increase this risk.

Feb. 19

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• SOUTHERN: Russian forces have launched various large-scale offensive operations in multiple directions, including around Bakhmut, Kupiansk and Robotyne, in a likely bid to capitalise on momentum from the fall of Avdiivka
• AID: At the Munich Security Conference, Ukraine secured numerous security agreements with France and Germany, while other European leaders have proposed various ways to deliver much-needed artillery shells to Ukraine
• PROTESTS: Following the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, more than 400 people participating in memorial demonstrations were arrested across 36 Russian cities
• FORECAST: Russian forces have taken Avdiivka; this marks their most significant victory since the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023; while a costly victory, it provides a propaganda boost ahead of the presidential election and reflects Russian momentum
• OFFENSIVES: Following the fall of Avdiivka (Donetsk oblast, see FORECAST below), Russian forces have launched numerous simultaneous attacks elsewhere along the frontline, almost certainly with the aim of ramping up pressure on Ukrainian forces. These include attacks along the southern front (western Zaporizhzhia oblast), around Bakhmut (Donetsk oblast) and towards Kupiansk (Oskil-Kreminna line).
• BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage posted on 15 February indicates that Russian forces progressed north-west of Vesele, a village located around 13 miles (21km) to the north-east of Bakhmut. Additional footage from 17 February shows limited Russian advances south-east of Bohdanivka, located around four miles (6km) west of Bakhmut. Meanwhile, on 15 February, Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces spokesperson Ilya Yevlash reported that the Russian command is currently seeking to progress in the Bohdanivka area, where it is reportedly transferring troops from unspecified parts of the front.
• DONETSK: See FORECAST below
• KHERSON: Russian forces have in recent days been attempting to storm Ukrainian positions on the left (east) bank of the Dnieper River, though without any confirmed advances.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: There is a realistic possibility that Russian forces will intensify operations in the Oskil-Kreminna direction following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia’s primary goal along the Oskil-Kreminna frontline will likely remain to capture Kupiansk. To that purpose, Russian offensive efforts have focused on Synkivka, a settlement located around five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. At the same time, on 15 February, a Ukrainian military officer operating in Kupiansk stated that Russian troops will possibly soon be equipped with new first-person view (FPV) drones in the sector; this would require Kyiv to ramp up its local electronic warfare capabilities. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 15 February shows that Russian forces advanced north-west of Synkivka, where they have captured an area of 0.6 square miles (1.5 sq km) near the settlement.
• SOUTHERN: Ukraine’s Tavriisk Grouping of Forces reported on 14 February that Russia is preparing a large grouping of forces in the Orikhiv direction (near Robotyne) made up of some 50,000 personnel, roughly equivalent in size to that around Avdiivka. Russian forces have subsequently launched a seemingly significant mechanised attack south of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia). Initial reports suggest that they have likely made some advances in the southern outskirts of Robotyne. Russian forces are likely seeking to capitalise on recent momentum around Avdiivka to keep Ukraine on the back foot, with the aim of seizing land which Ukrainian forces retook during the 2023 counter-offensive. The propaganda value of denying Ukrainian forces the land they took during the counter-offensive will be clear, though it remains unclear if Russian forces can make advances in this direction.
• STRIKES: On 19 February, Ukraine’s air force reportedly intercepted all four Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russian forces. Previously, on 18 February, Russia launched 14 Shahed-136/131 drones, three Kh-22 cruise missiles and one Kh-59 guided missile. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 12 drones and one Kh-59 missile over Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava and Sumy oblasts during this earlier attack. Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its air defences destroyed 33 Ukrainian-launched projectiles early on 17 February. The projectiles were destroyed over Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Kaluga and Voronezh regions (all Russia). The MoD did not report any damage.
• STRIKES: On 19 February, Ukrainian Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov explained that Russia’s latest strikes aim to undermine Ukraine’s economy, while last winter’s attacks sought to degrade the morale of the population. To that end, we assess that Russia’s current strike campaign systematically seeks to disconnect key industrial regions from the energy system so as to undermine the country’s industrial output. Kubrakov underscored that the authorities have taken measures to mitigate against the impact of Russian attacks, including via the provision of mobile power generators and strengthened air defences.
• STRIKES: On 18 February, Deputy Prime Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov stated that models of Ukraine’s equivalent of the Russian Lancet drone have passed preliminary tests and will soon be released on the battlefield. Previous reports indicated that these Lancet-type drones belong to the first-person view (FPV) category of unmanned vehicles, which have been a crucial element of Kyiv’s striking mix. They reportedly have a range of 19-25 miles (30-40km), which would extend the range of Kyiv’s drone strike capability. They are equipped with enhanced target acquisition features, and can also be operated in daylight. Fedorov stated that Ukraine aims to produce about 100 drones per month.
• STRIKES: On 17 February, Bloomberg reported that the UK and the US plan to equip Ukraine with artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled drones capable of swarming Russian targets. Unnamed sources reported that such drones could be delivered to Kyiv in the coming months. These reports come after the UK announced that it will lead (along with Latvia) a major capability coalition that aims to supply Ukraine with thousands of drones. These announcements come as Ukrainian forces are experiencing chronic shortages of ammunition, in particular artillery shells. At the same time, Western allies are facing growing difficulties in meeting Kyiv’s needs for shells, with the EU recently admitting that it will miss its target of providing Kyiv with 1 m artillery shells and missiles by March. However, the provision of drones is unlikely to compensate for the growing shell shortages, which will continue to undermine the operational capabilities of Ukrainian forces.
• STRIKES: On 16 February, Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin announced that Russia has so far fired 24 ballistic missiles provided by North Korea. Kostin stated that between 30 December 2023 and 7 February, Moscow launched 12 North Korean ballistic projectiles against Ukraine. We assess that the provision of North Korean ballistic missiles will likely compensate (in part at least) for the relative slowdown of Russia’s domestic ballistic missile production amid international sanctions.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• AID: The Munich Security Conference took place from 16 to 18 February, during which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky implored Kyiv’s Western allies to increase their support. Czech President Petr Pavel announced on 17 February that Prague has identified around 800,000 artillery shells abroad that could be dispatched to Kyiv within weeks if other partners provide funding. However, he did not specify where the ammunition would be sourced or whether this funding would be found.
• AID: Meanwhile, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated on 18 February that Denmark will send its entire artillery stock to Ukraine without specifying the exact number. As the EU has acknowledged that it will fail to meet its previous pledge of delivering 1 m artillery shells to Ukraine by March, such pledges will possibly modestly offset Ukraine’s current ‘critical’ artillery shortages, though we assess that broader efforts will be needed to stem the current shortages writ large.
• AID: President Zelensky stated on 18 February that Ukraine has agreed on bilateral security guarantees with several countries. On 16 February, Kyiv and Paris signed a bilateral security agreement under which France pledged to provide up to EUR 3 bn (USD 3.23 bn) in additional military aid for Ukraine in 2024, among other longer-term support packages. Germany and Ukraine also signed a security agreement on 16 February; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a new EUR 1.1 bn (USD 1.185 bn) military support package for Ukraine. It includes 36 self-propelled howitzers, around 120,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, two Skynex air defence systems and additional IRIS-T air defence system missiles.
• PROTESTS: A Russian human rights project, OVD-Info, reported on 17 February that the security forces detained more than 400 people participating in memorial demonstrations across 36 cities for opposition figure Alexei Navalny. Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service stated that Navalny died in prison on 16 February (see Sibylline Alert – Russia – 16 February 2024). The police arrested the largest number of mourners in St Petersburg (more than 200 people).
• PROTESTS: The crackdown marks the largest wave of arrests at demonstrations in Russia since September 2022 (when President Vladimir Putin announced partial mobilisation for the war in Ukraine). Russia will hold a presidential election on 15-17 March. As such, the Russian authorities will almost certainly continue to crack down on spontaneous vigils and demonstrations in support of Navalny in the coming days and weeks, sustaining bystander risks.
• PROTESTS: A heightened police presence is likely near monuments dedicated to victims of political repression across Russia, though widespread destabilising protests remain unlikely. Vigils and demonstrations will possibly continue across other countries in Eurasia, particularly those where Russians relocated en masse following the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine (principally Armenia and Georgia). Russian embassies in Europe will also likely remain hotspots for spontaneous protest activity in the coming days and weeks.
• RECONSTRUCTION: On 19 February, Japan held a conference in the capital Tokyo aimed at promoting Ukraine’s economic growth and reconstruction, likely to encourage investment and enhance bilateral ties. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukrainian and Japanese business and government representatives signed 56 agreements and memoranda at the conference. Shmyhal disclosed that an intergovernmental treaty to avoid double taxation was signed, as well as a memorandum on co-operation in education and technology.

FORECAST

On 17 February, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that he had ordered Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Avdiivka; Russian forces took total control of the settlement by 18 February. The seizure of Avdiivka, a town with a pre-invasion population of roughly 31,000, is the first major victory for Russian forces since the May 2023 fall of Bakhmut. It represents the culmination of an attritional offensive which was originally launched in mid-October 2023. The fall of Avdiivka also marks the first major test for Syrskyi, though his order to withdraw underscores his readiness to cede territory in order to preserve personnel. His detractors criticised him for being too wasteful with personnel for marginal gains during the battle for Bakhmut.

While Russian sources claim the Ukrainian withdrawal was disorderly, with large numbers of personnel captured, indications actually point to a broadly successful withdrawal, albeit with inevitable Ukrainian casualties. The commander of Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, acknowledged on 17 February that some Ukrainian forces were captured during the withdrawal, but that the withdrawal overall went according to plan; it reportedly prevented Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces. Russian sources, meanwhile, claim that they captured large numbers of Ukrainian personnel; Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu also alleges that Ukrainian forces lost 1,500 personnel within just 24 hours of the withdrawal. It is currently impossible to determine the number of Ukrainians captured or the extent of casualties and/or equipment losses sustained during the withdrawal.

The seizure of Avdiivka has undoubtedly proved an extremely costly prize for the Russians, though it provides the Kremlin with a notable propaganda boost ahead of the presidential election. Ukraine’s Tariivsk group of forces claimed on 18 February that since the offensive against Avdiivka began in October 2023, Russian forces have suffered 47,186 personnel casualties, while also losing 784 armoured fighting vehicles, 364 tanks and 248 artillery systems. While these losses cannot be confirmed, Russian forces have almost certainly lost a significant concentration of personnel and equipment; this will possibly undermine their ability to build further offensive momentum in the area.

Russian forces are almost certainly currently attempting to capitalise on the momentum following the fall of Avdiivka by launching numerous simultaneous offensive operations in a bid to exploit Ukrainian equipment and artillery shortages. Russian forces are launching major offensive operations in the south (western Zaporizhzhia), around Bakhmut and further north along the Oskil-Kreminna line. The Russian MoD claimed on 18 February that its forces had advanced 5.3 miles (8.6km) in depth in the Avdiivka area, and that these forces are continuing their efforts to push further westwards following the capture of the town. Avdiivka has been an important strongpoint in the Ukrainian lines since 2014; its loss will allow Russian forces to shorten the line. While Ukrainian forces will almost certainly have withdrawn to secondary defensive lines to the west of the town, the strength of these secondary defences remains unclear. Unconfirmed Ukrainian reports in recent weeks have aired concerns about Ukraine’s relative lack of defence-in-depth fortifications west of Avdiivka. However, we assess that any such fortifications will present an opportunity for Ukraine to limit further Russian advances.All indicators point to Russian forces making extensive use of glide bomb close air support (CAS) during the final days of the battle for Avdiivka, marking a notable contrast to previous offensives which had not been accompanied by such intense air support. Tarnavskyi reported that on 14 February, Russian forces conducted 73 airstrikes in the Tavriisk direction near Avdiivka, a record number. Ukrainian forces have nevertheless claimed that their air defences shot down three Su-34 and two Su-35 multi-role fighters between 17 and 19 February. These Russian jets had been conducting glide bomb missions in the vicinity. While we cannot confirm these reports, they likely reflect Ukraine’s efforts to concentrate precious air defences around Avdiivka during the withdrawal at the likely expense of protecting other areas along the frontline.

The overall concentration of Russian CAS over the last week indicates that Ukrainian air defences were unable to counter Russian aircraft effectively during the crucial phase of the battle, despite some claimed interceptions. Ukrainian sources have reported on increased Russian airstrikes along other fronts in recent days; this points to a wider intensification of the use of Russian air assets to support offensive operations. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov sated on 17 February that one of the key lessons from the battle of Avdiivka is the need for modern air defences capable of preventing glide bombs at scale. Ultimately, we assess that worsening Ukrainian air defence missile shortages will provide the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) greater opportunity to leverage their extensive fleet of aircraft to support not only further advances, but also to conduct large-scale strategic bombing against Ukrainian cities. (Source: Sibylline)

 

23 Feb 24. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Marking Two Years Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. Two years ago, Russian forces launched an illegal and indefensible all-out invasion of Ukraine. But Ukraine’s defiance in the face of Putin’s aggression and atrocities has inspired free people everywhere.

Over the past two years, Putin has assumed that Ukraine’s forces would collapse and that Ukraine’s friends would cower. He couldn’t have been more wrong.

The scale of Putin’s blunder is especially stark today. The Kremlin’s forces failed to win the Battle of Kyiv, failed to topple Ukraine’s democratically elected government, and failed to crush the will of the Ukrainian people. Ukraine has retaken more than half of the sovereign territory that was grabbed by the Kremlin’s forces in 2022. And as a result of Putin’s unprovoked war, Russia has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties, lost significant equipment, and severely set back its military modernization program.

However, Ukraine faces a tough fight ahead. I urge members of Congress to act quickly to pass the national-security supplemental to ensure that Ukrainian troops have what they need to defend their country and their citizens from Russia’s cruelty—and to send a strong message of America’s continued commitment to Ukraine’s freedom.

We will also continue to rally the world to support Ukraine. Since 2022, I have regularly convened some 50 countries from around the world as part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. This global coalition works together to ensure that Ukraine has the capabilities that it needs to defend its people from Russian aggression and take back its sovereign territory. I hosted the most recent meeting of this Contact Group just last week, and I was struck again by the steadiness of its members’ collective resolve. This historic coalition has committed more than $87 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Putin’s war—including 15 U.S. allies that, as a percentage of GDP, contribute more to Ukraine’s capability needs than the United States.

We must continue to be candid with the American people about the stakes in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s war poses a direct threat to security in Europe and beyond. The world will only become more dangerous if Putin and his fellow autocrats conclude that they can wipe democracies off the map and force free people to live in fear. So today’s grim milestone should spur us all to decide what kind of future we want for our children and grandchildren: an open, secure, and prosperous world of rules and rights, or the violent and lawless world of aggression and chaos that Putin seeks.

We support Ukraine’s fight for freedom, both because it is the right thing to do and because doing so is central to America’s continued security.

After two years of Putin’s reckless and lawless war, we salute Ukraine’s brave defenders, and we wish Ukraine’s unbowed citizens peace, security, and freedom.

(Source: U.S. DoD)

 

 

23 Feb 24. Trump ‘can’t solve this war,’ says Zelensky. Donald Trump can’t solve the problem of the Ukraine war, Volodymr Zelensky  has said, as he repeated calls for the president to visit him on the front line.

The Ukrainian president told Fox News he “can’t understand how” Trump would end the war in 24 hours, adding, “he [Trump] can’t solve this problem, this tragedy with me”.

Mr Zelensky added that after a visit to the front line: “he will see what’s going on, and after that, I think he will change his mind”.

On Saturday, he told the Munich Security Conference that he was ready to take Trump to the frontlines in Ukraine, saying policy makers should see what real war entails.

Trump, the likely Republican nominee in the November presidential election, opposes helping Kyiv and recently used his sway to kill a US border reform bill that would have also authorised additional aid to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian president called again on the US Congress to approve additional aid for Kyiv, saying that a failure to do so will cost Ukrainian lives. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

22 Feb 24. German lawmakers reject motion to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine. German lawmakers approved further military support for Ukraine on Thursday, including long-range weapon systems, almost two years after Russia’s invasion, but rejected a call by the opposition to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv.

Germany is the second-biggest donor of military aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz has resisted domestic and foreign pressure to supply the Taurus missiles, fearing an international escalation of the conflict.

“(Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s Russia is and will remain the greatest security threat to Europe for the foreseeable future,” Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told the Bundestag lower house, adding Germany would counter it “with all our strength”.

A majority of lawmakers voted for a motion put by Social Democrat Scholz’s coalition, also comprising the Greens and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), which committed to delivering “additional long-range weapon systems and ammunition”. It made no specific mention of Taurus.

The fudge on the motion’s wording, which some lawmakers argue could only mean Taurus missiles, has been the subject of contention.

Raising the pressure on Scholz, the conservative opposition put down a motion explicitly calling for the delivery of the cruise missiles which could give Ukraine the capability to cause significant damage deeper within Russian-occupied territory.

Highlighting divisions within Scholz’s awkward coalition, the FDP head of the parliamentary defence committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, voted for the opposition motion, as, she said, it could not be misunderstood. (Source: Reuters)

 

22 Feb 24. Digital overhaul is key to Ukraine’s war effort, defence official says. Ukraine’s military must cut bureaucracy through digitisation and smart online services to strengthen its war effort against Russia, a senior defence official said on Thursday.

Kyiv is searching for ways to fend off Moscow’s larger and better equipped military, including by overhauling its mobilisation rules and boosting arms production.

Undoing a legacy of red tape and creating a “person-centric” army would also help make Ukraine a more efficient fighting force, said Kateryna Chernohorenko, deputy defence minister for digital development.

“In wartime, we need to constantly fight for time – for a commander’s time, for a soldier’s time – and this time can be won through digital solutions,” she told Reuters in an interview in Kyiv.

Ukraine’s defence ministry announced plans on Wednesday for a mobile app for service members that would offer easy access to a range of administrative services, including the ability to obtain a superior’s approval.

Chernohorenko, who also oversees drone development and other battlefield innovation at the ministry, said the amount of time troops currently spend on filling out paperwork was “unacceptable” during wartime.

“We are moving toward an ecosystem of digital services (built) around the service member,” she said.

The platform, called Army+, will be launched in the summer, Chernohorenko added.

Ukraine has prioritised digitisation in recent years and has won praise for its e-government app Diia, which allows Ukrainians to store important documents online and puts other services, such as paying taxes, at their fingertips.

Defence officials are also developing an online register of draft-eligible Ukrainians to improve mobilisation as fighting drags on and Ukraine’s ranks thin out. (Source: Reuters)

 

23 Feb 24. US to target Russia with more sanctions. The United States will impose sanctions on over 500 targets on Friday in action marking the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Reuters in an interview on Thursday.

The action, taken in partnership with other countries, will target Russia’s military industrial complex and companies in third countries that facilitate Russia’s access to goods it wants, Adeyemo said, as Washington seeks to hold Russia to account over the war and the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

“Tomorrow we’ll release hundreds of sanctions just here in the United States, but it’s important to step back and remember that it’s not just America taking these actions,” Adeyemo said.

The package will be the latest of thousands of sanctions targeting Moscow announced by the United States and its allies following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has killed tens of thousands and destroyed cities.

The new penalties come as the U.S. and its allies look to maintain pressure on Russia, despite doubts over whether the U.S. Congress will approve additional security assistance for Kyiv.

President Joe Biden’s administration has exhausted money previously approved for Ukraine, and a request for additional funds is languishing in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

“Sanctions and export controls are geared towards slowing Russia down, making it harder for them to fight their war of choice in Ukraine,” Adeyemo said.

00:11US makes its first moon landing in over 50 years

“But ultimately, in order to speed Ukraine up, to give them the ability to defend themselves, Congress needs to act to give Ukraine the resources that they need and the weapons they need.”

Experts have warned that the sanctions are not enough to stop Moscow’s attacks.

“What Congress does to pass additional military assistance to Ukraine is going to matter far, far more than anything else they could do on the sanctions front,” Peter Harrell, a former National Security Council official, said.

The Treasury Department in December said Russia’s economy had been hit by the sanctions, contracting by 2.1% in 2022.

Russia’s economy is over 5% smaller than had been predicted prior, Rachel Lyngaas, the Chief Sanctions Economist, said on Treasury’s website, opens new tab.

Still, Russia’s economy has performed above expectations, with the International Monetary Fund in January forecasting, opens new tab 2.6% GDP growth for 2024 – a 1.5 percentage point upgrade from an October estimate – after solid 3.0% growth in 2023.

But IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday it was “clear that Russia is now in a war economy,” with military expenditures boosting weapons production, government social transfers propping up consumption and inflation that is rising, despite declines elsewhere. (Source: Reuters)

 

23 Feb 24. European capitals are racing to raise $1.5bn in emergency funding to provide Ukraine with artillery shells from overseas to shore up the front lines against Russia as the full-scale war enters its third year. The last-ditch scheme to buy ammunition from outside the EU is being spearheaded by the Czech Republic to compensate for the congressional deadlock on US aid and delays in European production. Prague has taken the initiative as capitals squabble over extending the EU’s main military support facility for Kyiv. Officials familiar with the discussions say the country needs its European partners to help provide the $1.5bn to finance the ammunition purchases, which Prague has been organising since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. “The Czechs have done the work, but they need others to provide money,” said a person briefed on the initiative. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told EU counterparts on Monday that Ukraine needed 2.5mn artillery shells this year but that the bloc had only sent 400,000. He pleaded with them to find a solution fast. “The Ukrainians couldn’t care less where these shells come from, and who pays for them,” said one EU diplomat. “We’re arguing over acronyms while they suffer on the front line.” Ukrainian forces are already having to drastically ration artillery fire, making it harder for them to repel Russian assaults. Russian forces seized the eastern town of Avdiivka last week in their first significant territorial gain since May. Recommended News in-depthWar in Ukraine Ukraine faces ‘gap in the hose’ as western ammunition dries up Deliveries from US artillery stocks are suspended because a $60bn support package for Ukraine is stuck in the US House of Representatives, putting the onus on Europe to make up the shortfall. The EU set a target of sending 1mn shells to Ukraine by March this year from stockpiles, production and foreign purchases — but is likely to reach only half that. Czech President Petr Pavel, a former general and senior Nato official, surprised delegates at the Munich Security Conference last weekend when he said Prague had identified an unnamed country outside the EU with “half a m rounds of 155mm and another 300,000 rounds of 122mm calibre which we can deliver within weeks if we can find quickly funding for that”. Some EU members have already chipped in, say officials familiar with the Czech scheme. The Czech government declined several requests for comment. Prague needs financial contributions from national governments because EU capitals are at loggerheads over a proposed €5bn top-up of the European Peace Facility, the main EU vehicle for funding weapons supplies to Kyiv. EU ambassadors failed to reach agreement on the EPF at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday and have set a target of agreeing the rules of a fresh capital injection before a summit of EU leaders on March 21. Germany is insisting that its notional contribution of roughly €1.25bn be reduced to reflect its large bilateral military aid to Ukraine, worth €7bn this year. “What is crucial for Ukraine is that military aid reaches it without bureaucratic delay. Bilateral support is very quick and efficient — it should be considered as an equivalent contribution to the European Peace Facility,” said Michael Clauss, Germany’s ambassador to the EU. France and Greece insist that an expanded EPF should only buy weapons and ammunition from EU and Norwegian manufacturers — which would prevent it financing the Czech plan or ammunition from the US. The French government maintains that EU funds should be used to strengthen the bloc’s defence industrial base. Greece is concerned that contracts could be signed with Turkish defence companies. “Of course we should be buying more to help Ukraine including from outside the EU,” said French military analyst François Heisbourg. “But politically it is going to become very difficult to buy artillery shells from the US when the US Congress is refusing to send further military aid.” Europe has been slow to ramp up its artillery production because national governments and EU and Nato entities were slow to sign contracts with manufacturers, making it harder for companies to access finance to expand their facilities. There has also been a shortage of propellant, which takes several months to make, and of its precursor chemicals. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said EU annual production capacity will rise to 1.4mn shells by the end of 2024, outstripping the US, which is expected to hit 1.2mn next year. In a paper for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, analysts, Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman concluded that Ukraine would need 75,000-90,000 artillery shells a month “to sustain the war defensively, and more than double that — 200,000-250,000 — for a major offensive”. They added: “At this stage, the western coalition depends mostly on US stocks to sustain the lower range of this figure and does not have the ammunition to support a major offensive next year.” Russia is able to make 2.5mn shells a year, according to the Royal United Services Institute think-tank. Ukrainian officials say the figure is 4mn including refurbished munitions. But that rate is far below Russia’s own frontline needs. Its forces are estimated to have fired 12mn artillery shells in 2022 and 7mn in 2023. (Source: FT.com)

 

22 Feb 24. UK to send 200 more Brimstone anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. The UK has announced 200 Brimstone anti-tank missiles will be part of a new aid package to be sent to Ukraine.

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps told the Commons: “Today I can announce a new package of 200 brimstone anti-tank missiles in a further boost to defend Ukraine.

“These missiles have previously had significant impact on the battlefield, in one instance forcing Russian forces to abandon and retreat an attempted crossing of a river.”

Mr Shapps said Britain would also train more Ukrainian troops alongside other allies, adding: “Together we will train a further 10,000 in the first half of 2024.”

Emphasising the continued British support for Kyiv, he explained: “The UK will continue to double down on that support. All freedom-loving countries must be compelled to do the same.

“This year will be make or break for Ukraine, so it is time for the West and all civilised nations to step up and give Ukraine the backing it needs.” (Source: forces.net)

 

22 Feb 24. UK helping Ukraine to set up its own version of Defence Medical Rehabilitation Centre. Two years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a delegation of Ukrainian healthcare officials is visiting the Defence Medical Rehabilitation Centre (DMRC) in the UK.

The facility, at Stanford Hall, near Loughborough, replaced the original rehabilitation centre at Headley Court in Surrey and is considered one of the best in the world for helping military personnel on their rehabilitation journey.

The UK has stood alongside Ukraine throughout its fight against Russia and now is helping the country build its own version of the DMRC.

Lieutenant Colonel Sardar Bahadur, the medical director of the DMRC, told Forces News the UK is trying to help Ukraine “get the most, for the most, to help the most.”

“The way to do that is say, this is how we do it, this is what the evidence shows, this is what we’ve learned, would you like to adapt this?” he said.

“I found with our Ukrainian colleagues, they’re very proud people, they know what they want, it’s just guiding them in the right direction and offering help when they need it.”

The first Ukrainian DMRC will be based in Kyiv and the UK is also funding the equipment required to kit the centre out.

The final list has been drawn up and is now being purchased, with care going into ensuring it’s the right kit and that it can be serviced and maintained in Ukraine.

In the coming months, Ukraine’s very own DMRC will begin to take shape, with the end goal of creating an entire network of recovery centres across the country.

Of course, the centres will treat both physical and mental wounds – something Professor Robert van Voren, fronting the Global Initiative on Psychiatry, told Forces News will affect civilians as well as military personnel.

“The civilians are really, you know, stressed, traumatised,” he said. “There’s this one woman who opened her house to the military so they could shower.

“So four soldiers come and shower, an hour later they are killed at the front. So they go completely berserk.”

He went on: “The country, when it emerges from this war, will be devastated.

“We don’t know exactly how many people have died, but it’s really in the tens of thousands and probably over 100,000 now and still ongoing.

“It’s young people. The most painful part is that [it’s] the young people that should rebuild a country, men, women, they’re dying at the front.”

Lt Col Bahadur echoed Prof van Voren’s words, telling Forces News Ukraine is a “whole nation affected by mental health”.

“Most health services, national health services can deal with a proportion of the population,” he said.

“But this is essentially all of the population. So when they say we treat veterans, pretty much everyone’s going to be a veteran in that country at some point.”

Other nations are involved in the efforts to help establish the DMRC and Norwegian psychologists are training Ukrainian soldiers to become what they call baby psychologists.

Perhaps for the first time, attempts are being made to minimise the effect of conflict on mental health at the time of war rather than years later.

Major Dr Haakon Engen, Clinical Psychologist for the Norweigan Armed Forces, told Forces News they have developed something called operational resilience training.

“We’ve been giving them advanced skills in basically how to build resilience for themselves and for others, psychological skills to manage stress and to help themselves and others through combat,” he said.

Kseniia Smyrnova, from the National University of Kyiv, told Forces News the help is “very necessary… because life changed very dramatically”.

“We can see now dramatical changes and psychological transformation of people of the whole society, and [it’s especially] very important for [the] military,” she said. (Source: forces.net)

 

22 Feb 24. USAF Capability Coalition Statement on Ukraine’s Future F-16 Capability. Department of Defense Spokesman Lt. Col. Garron Garn provided the following statement: On February 21, 2024, the Air Force Capability Coalition (AFCC) Steering Group met to discuss progress of Ukraine’s F-16 program, including the AFCC’s work to train the Ukrainian Air Force to operate, service, and maintain F-16 fighter aircraft. AFCC members coordinate to meet the requirements to ensure Ukraine receives a fully functional F-16 capability, including Denmark’s initial donation of aircraft in the summer of 2024, and other Allied donations later this year. The AFCC reaffirmed its unwavering support to help Ukraine protect its skies. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

21 Feb 24. Sweden announces its largest Ukraine military package to date. Although still in use with the Swedish Armed Forces, their fifteenth package, worth Skr7.1bn, will be donated to Ukraine once the Government manages to replace them.

The Swedish Government has announced that it will donate its largest military support package to Ukraine worth Skr7.1bn ($684.4m).

“Russia’s brutal, unjust and merciless war in Ukraine continues and Ukraine’s need for support remains immense. This support package responds to the prioritised needs conveyed by Ukraine,” the Ministry of Defence said in a statement on 20 February 2024.

Among Sweden’s 15th package, there is a maritime initiative that includes Combat Boat 90s, small and fast motorboats (G-boats) and underwater weapons.

The package also includes artillery ammunition, an anti-aircraft system, light anti-tank weapons, recoilless rifles, hand grenades, medical equipment, medical transport vehicles, food, and financial support to bilateral and multilateral projects or funds. It also involves financial support to enable Ukraine to purchase more Combat Vehicle 90s (CV90s).

It is mostly managed through an additional amending budget that also includes the funds for support package 14, including an additional Skr700m in costs within that previous package. The amending budget amounts to a total of Skr8.2bn. The Government will follow up on funding of package 15 in the Spring Amending Budget.

With these measures, Sweden’s total military support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022 amounts to Skr30bn.

Although, it should be noted that the Swedish Ministry of Defence added that all this equipment, in the support package, is currently being used by the Swedish Armed Forces.

“[We] have made the assessment that it may be donated if replacement purchases are made soon.”

Shoring up Ukraine’s defensive strategy

The content of this package indicates Ukraine’s defensive strategy, which the Ukrainian Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, recently stated:

“We have shifted from offensive actions to conducting defensive operations. Our operational goal is to exhaust the enemy, inflict maximum losses using our fortifications, out technical advantages, unmanned aviation, electronic warfare, and maintaining prepared defence lines.”

In that spirit, Sweden’s latest donation will bolster Ukraine’s defensive efforts as air defence components and ammunition will help to sustain the force’s ability to withstand Russian aerial strikes.

This has become even more significant this week as the Institute for the Study of War recently observed that Russian forces had “temporarily established limited and localised air superiority” during the final days of its activity in Avdiivka before the Ukrainian withdrawal.

(Source: army-technology.com)

 

22 Feb 24. Ukraine has the right to strike “Russian military targets outside Ukraine” in line with international law, the Nato secretary-general has said for the first time since the start of the full-scale war nearly two years ago. Jens Stoltenberg earlier this week acknowledged that the use of western-supplied arms to strike targets in Russia has long been a point of contention among Kyiv’s allies, due to fears of escalating the conflict. “It’s for each and every ally to decide whether there are some caveats on what they deliver, and different allies have had a bit different policies on that,” Stoltenberg told Radio Free Europe in an interview published on Tuesday. “But in general, we need to remember what this is. This is a war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, in blatant violation of international law. And according to international law, Ukraine has the right to self-defence,” Stoltenberg added. “And that includes also striking legitimate military targets, Russian military targets, outside Ukraine. That is international law and, of course, Ukraine has the right to do so, to protect itself.” A Nato official confirmed to the Financial Times on Thursday that Stoltenberg said Kyiv had the right to self-defence, including by striking legitimate Russian military targets outside Ukraine. The comments represent a step up in rhetoric from Stoltenberg, who has previously referred to Kyiv’s rights under international law without explicitly mentioning attacks on Russian territory. The debate over using western weapons to strike Russia is likely to intensify as some Nato allies begin to ship F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The US-made aircraft, if armed with long-range missiles, could significantly increase the potential range of Kyiv’s strikes into Russian territory. In recent months Kyiv has stepped up strikes on military targets inside Russia with drones and long-range missiles, including an oil depot used by the Russian army near St Petersburg. However, due to western sensitivities around attacks on Russian territory, Ukraine has only ever alluded to its responsibility. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s air defence forces, Yuriy Ignat, said that Ukraine “as a rule, does not comment”. France and the UK, which have already supplied Kyiv with long-range missiles, have been cautious about endorsing such strikes for fear of escalation with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted last year that Moscow could strike western-supplied F-16s outside Ukraine’s borders, which he said risked bringing Nato into a direct conflict with Russia. “This seriously risks dragging Nato further into this armed conflict,” Putin said in June.” The tanks are burning and the F-16s will burn just as well.” More recently, some Russian officials have threatened that further western backing for Ukraine could lead to a global nuclear war. “We should do everything to stop [nuclear war] happening, but the clock is ticking faster and faster,” Dmitry Medvedev, a former president and prime minister, said in an interview published on Thursday. “And in this I also see the impotence of western governments that are always saying the same thing: ‘The Russians are trying to scare us, they’ll never do it.’ They are mistaken. If the existence of our country is at stake, then what choice does our head of state have? None.” Long-range strike capabilities for Kyiv have become more critical as the situation on the frontline becomes increasingly stalled in a gruelling artillery battle where Russian troops are able to outfire Ukraine’s by about three to one. While Russia captured the town of Avdiivka last week, its first major battlefield victory since May 2023, the 1,000km frontline is largely static. “It’s also important to actually recognise that even though the situation on the battlefield is difficult, we should not overestimate Russia and underestimate Ukraine,” Stoltenberg told reporters last week, noting that Ukrainian forces were able to carry out “deep strikes” into Russian-occupied Crimea and that they succeeded in sinking one of Russia’s ships in the Black Sea. (Source: FT.com)

 

22 Feb 24. Saab waits out political drama over sending Gripen fighters to Ukraine. Six months after Ukrainian pilots tested the Swedish Gripen fighter jets, the aircraft’s vendor says government and industry movements are continuing to provide them to Kyiv in what could be a relatively quick transfer. Stockholm has been touting the possibility of sending the Gripen JAS39 to Ukraine for several months now, but has made any decision on this contingent upon the country’s accession to NATO. Manufacturer Saab is moving in lockstep with government, executives said here at the Singapore Airshow.

“We are fully aligned with what has been put forward by the Swedish government on this matter – we also continue to work to support and work with our Hungarian partners in the best way we can,” Mikael Franzén, chief marketing officer at Saab told Defense News.

“We expect that if such a decision was granted approval by the Swedish government, it would be a fairly rapid process to send the aircraft to Ukraine. We are moving in the right direction currently,” he added.

What was expected to be a rather quick process of admitting the Nordic state into the military alliance has turned to be an 18-month ordeal, now delayed by Hungary, which has yet to ratify the protocol for its accession.

A senior member of the country’s ruling party told local media this week that the Hungarian parliament could vote as early as Feb. 26 on the issue, and the government has indicated its intention to vote in favor of Sweden’s entry.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is also scheduled to meet with his Hungarian counterpart on Feb. 23.

“There remains a big push coming from inside and outside of Sweden for us to send the Gripen to Ukraine, and we stand ready to provide these should a decision be reached by the government on this,” Franzén said.

Saab officials confirmed to Defense News that Ukrainian pilots successfully tested the Gripen jets in Sweden last fall, which observers hailed as a sign that negotiations for their transfer were advancing.

According to Jussi Halmetoja, former Gripen pilot and air operations advisor for Saab, teaching a pilot how to fly the aircraft is easy, but it is only one part of the equation, as they must also learn how to effectively use the combat systems.

“On average it takes between 4-6 months to train a pilot to use the Gripen JAS39 fighter in the techniques for a limited mission set such as air-to-air and beyond-visual-range,” he told Defense News at the airshow.

“One of the initial challenges that can easily be overcome is language barriers, but teaching them about maintaining the aircraft and using its weapons as well as tactics, techniques and procedures properly are harder ones,” he added.

Thus far, the only Western fighter jets to have received formal approval to be sent to Ukraine are Denmark and the Netherland’s U.S.-made F-16s, which are to be transferred as soon as pilot training is completed. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

 

22 Feb 24. Russian forces ‘must reach Kyiv’ to win war, says Medvedev. Russian forces must “reach Kyiv” in order to end the war with a Russian victory, the Kremlin has said.

Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and now a top Putin advisor, said that capturing the capital in a “special military operation” was the only way for the country to achieve its goals.

He said Russians and Ukrainians are one nation and the “Kyiv regime must fall”.

The comments come after Russia seized the initiative on the battlefield and captured the city of Avdiivka, marking its first major gain since May last year.

Russia claimed to have recaptured a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro, too, just days ahead of the second anniversary of the invasion. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

20 Feb 24. Canada bolsters Ukraine’s defence with 800 drones. Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair’s announcement of the drone donation shows Canada’s commitment to supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russian invasion. As Russia’s aggression intensifies, Canada steps up military assistance, providing drone technology to enhance Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. To fortify Ukraine’s defence capabilities in the face of Russia’s aggression, Canada’s Defence Minister Bill Blair unveiled Canada’s pledge to donate more than 800 SkyRanger R70 multi-mission unmanned aerial systems. Valued at around $95m (C$128.2m), these drones will serve as an asset for Ukraine as it continues to battle against Russia’s illegal invasion.

The announcement comes at a moment just days before the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Minister Blair emphasised Canada’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, declaring, “Canada stands firmly with Ukraine in defence of freedom and democracy.”

The significance of Canada’s contribution extends beyond the military realm, signalling to the international community that democratic nations are still united in their support for Ukraine’s struggle against aggression.

The UK and Latvia recently initiated a coalition to bolster Ukraine’s defence capabilities by distributing thousands of first-person view (FPV) drones. In parallel, in solidarity with Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia pledged support by joining multinational drones and demining operations. These initiatives come amidst the widespread use of both consumer and military drone technology in the conflict.

The outbreak of war in Ukraine saw the most widespread use of both consumer and military drone technology in a conflict to date, as outlined in GlobalData’s “Thematic Intelligence: Drones in Aerospace & Defense (2023)” report. Ukraine’s drone fleet has destroyed crucial Russian supply trucks, delayed the Russian military’s advances, and exposed the Russian army’s vulnerabilities.

Furthermore, the donation shows the role of technology in modern warfare and the evolving nature of defence strategies in the face of asymmetric threats. As Ukraine confronts an adversary with superior conventional military capabilities, deploying drones equipped with surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities will enhance Ukraine’s ability to gather intelligence, monitor enemy movements, and protect its territorial integrity.

In addition to the drone donation, Minister Blair reaffirmed Canada’s broader commitment to supporting Ukraine through various initiatives, including military training, capacity building, and humanitarian aid. Since February 2022, Canada has pledged more than $9.7bn in assistance to Ukraine, reflecting its steadfast solidarity with the Ukrainian people in their quest for freedom.

Canada has also been a supplier of military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s February 2022 invasion. Donations have included M777 howitzers, M72 anti-tank weapons, 39 armoured support vehicles, various small arms and supplementary equipment such as medical aid and rations, according to GlobalData’s “Canada Defense Market 2023-2028” report.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve and tensions escalate in Eastern Europe, Canada’s proactive stance in providing military assistance to Ukraine remains. With the donation of 800 drones, Canada reinforces its position as an ally of Ukraine. (Source: army-technology.com)

 

21 Feb 24. Ukraine outnumbered, outgunned, ground down by relentless Russia.

• War enters 3rd year with Russia in ascendancy
• Ukrainian soldiers increasingly exhausted
• Motivation high, fighters and ammo in low supply
• Conflict combines trench and drone warfare

As the Ukraine war enters its third year, the infantry of 59th Brigade are confronting a bleak reality: they’re running out of soldiers and ammunition to resist their Russian invaders.

One platoon commander who goes by his call sign “Tygr” estimated that just 60-70% of the several thousand men in the brigade at the start of the conflict were still serving. The rest had been killed, wounded or signed off for reasons such as old age or illness.

Heavy casualties at the hands of Russian forces have been compounded by dreadful conditions on the eastern front, with frozen soil turning into thick mud in unseasonably warm temperatures, playing havoc with soldier’s health.

“The weather is rain, snow, rain, snow. People get ill with simple flu or angina as a result. They’re out of action for some time, and there is nobody to replace them,” said a company commander in the brigade with the call sign “Limuzyn”. “The most immediate problem in every unit is lack of people.”

On the cusp of the second anniversary of its Feb. 24 invasion, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is in the ascendancy in a conflict that combines attritional trench combat reminiscent of World War One with high-tech drone warfare that’s sending tens of thousands of machines into the skies above.

Moscow has made small gains in recent months and claimed a major victory at the weekend when it took control of Avdiivka in the hotly contested eastern Donetsk region. A spokesperson for 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, one of the units that tried to hold the town, said the defenders were outnumbered seven to one.

Reuters spoke to more than 20 soldiers and commanders in infantry, drone and artillery units on different sections of the 1,000-km frontlines in eastern and southern Ukraine.

While still motivated to fight Russian occupation, they spoke of the challenges of holding off a larger and better supplied enemy as military support from the West slows despite pleas for more from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Another commander in the 59th Brigade, who only gave his first name Hryhoriy, described relentless attacks from groups of five to seven Russian soldiers who would push forward up to 10 times a day in what he called “meat assaults” – highly costly to the Russians but also a major threat to his troops.

“When one or two defensive positions are fighting off these assaults all day, the guys get tired,” Hryhoriy said as he and his exhausted men were afforded a brief rotation away from the frontlines near the Russian-occupied eastern city of Donetsk.

“Weapons break, and if there is no possibility of bringing them more ammunition or changing their weapons, then you understand what this leads to.”

The Ukrainian and Russian defence ministries didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment on the state of the play on the frontlines and how both sides intend to prosecute the war through to the end of the year.

WANTED: FIGHTERS AND AMMO

Kyiv relies heavily on money and equipment from abroad to fund its war effort, but with $61bn in U.S. aid held up by political bickering in Washington it is looking more exposed than at any time since the start of the invasion.

A soldier serving in a GRAD rocket artillery unit, whose call sign is “Skorpion”, said that his launcher, which uses Soviet-designed ammunition held by few of Ukraine’s allies, was now operating at about 30% of maximum capacity.

“It became like this recently,” he said. “There aren’t as many foreign munitions.”

Artillery shells are also in short supply as a result of Western countries’ inability to keep up the pace of shipments for a drawn-out war. On top of the U.S. supply pause, the EU has conceded it will miss its target to supply a m shells to Ukraine by March by nearly half.

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow and Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think-tank, estimated that Russia’s artillery was firing at five times the rate of Ukraine’s, a figure that Hryhoriy of the 59th Brigade also gave.

“Ukraine is not getting a sufficient amount of artillery ammunition to meet its minimum defensive needs, and this is not a sustainable situation moving forward,” Kofman added.

Moscow now controls almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory including the Crimea peninsula it annexed in 2014, even if the frontlines of the war have largely stagnated in the last 14 months.

Ukrainian officials have said their armed forces number around 800,000, while in December Putin ordered Russia’s forces to be increased by 170,000 troops to 1.3m.

Beyond personnel, Moscow’s defence spending dwarfs that of Ukraine. In 2024 it earmarked $109 bn for the sector, more than twice Ukraine’s equivalent target of $43.8bn.

A new law aimed at mobilising 450-500,000 more Ukrainians is slowly making its way through parliament, but for some soldiers fighting now, significant reinforcements seem a distant hope.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov recently referred to Ukraine’s artillery ammunition deficit as “critical” in a letter to the European Union, urging its national leaders to do more to bolster supplies.

His letter said Ukraine’s “absolute critical daily minimum requirement” was 6,000 artillery shells, but his forces were able to fire just 2,000 a day, the Financial Times reported.

DRONE WAR ON MASSIVE SCALE

Conventional warplanes are a relatively rare sight over the frontlines, largely because air defences act as a deterrent. Yet a different battle is raging in the skies, with both sides striving for the upper hand in drone technology.

Drones – or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – are cheap to produce and can surveil enemy movements and drop ordinance with pinpoint accuracy.

Kyiv has overseen a boom in drone production and innovation and is developing advanced, long-range UAVs, while Moscow has more than matched its rival with huge investments of its own, allowed it to nullify Ukraine’s early advantage.

The scale is astonishing.

On the Ukrainian side alone, more than 300,000 drones were ordered from producers last year and more than 100,000 sent to the front, digital minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters.

A strong focus now is on light, nimble FPV drones, where operators, or pilots, get a first-person view from an onboard camera. President Zelenskiy has set a target for Ukraine to produce one m FPV drones this year in light of the battlefield advantages delivered by the technology.

Limuzyn, the company commander in the 59th Brigade, said Russia’s widespread use of drones had make it difficult for Ukrainian troops to establish or strengthen fortified positions.

“Our guys start to do something, a drone sees them, and a second drone arrives to drop something onto them.”

Drones have also forced the Russians to move valuable vehicles and weapons systems back by several kilometres, according to two Ukrainian drone pilots in different units.

“It’s now very hard to find vehicles to hit… most vehicles are 9-10km away or more,” said a pilot in the 24th Brigade with the call sign “Nato”. “At the beginning they were very comfortable being 7 km away.”

Two other Ukrainian drone pilots, “Leleka” and “Darwin”, both serving in the elite Achilles drone unit of the 92nd Brigade, described queues of two or three UAVs sometimes forming above the battlefield, waiting to hit enemy targets.

Leleka recalled watching four drones from different Ukrainian units coming in to strike a target on one occasion: “It’s like taxis at the airport, one drone comes, then another, then a third.”

The same situation is true for the Russians, whose drones now comfortably outnumber Ukraine’s, according to Ukrainian pilots from three units. The Russian defence ministry said this month that the country had ramped up its production of military drones in the past year, without giving figures.

As the use from drones grows, both sides are bolstering deployment of electronic warfare systems which can disrupt the frequencies that feed commands from the pilot to the drone, making them drop out of the sky or miss their target.

Darwin, a 20-year-old who dropped out of medical school to enlist when Russia invaded, compared the current drone arms race to that between aviation and air defence: planes dominated in World War Two, but modern air defence systems greatly limited their use in this war, he said.

“In future, I am sure there will be an analogous situation with drones: The concentration and effectiveness of electronic warfare will become so big that any connection between an aerial vehicle and its pilot will become impossible.” (Source: Reuters)

 

20 Feb 24. Ukraine, German manufacturer cooperate on air defence systems. Ukraine’s state arms producer has entered into cooperation with Germany’s MBDA Deutschland, part of a missiles joint venture owned by Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab, BAE Systems (BAES.L), opens new tab and Leonardo (LDOF.MI), opens new tab.

Ukroboronprom, the producer, said the companies signed a document that envisages a joint study of opportunities for cooperation in air defence systems.

A spokesperson for MBDA Deutschland said that countering unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) was in focus.

Kyiv has been accelerating its efforts to boost domestic and joint arms production amid partners’ depleting warehouses, failed delivery schedules, and political wrangling on allocating further military support as the war with Russia enters its third year.

“Potential areas of partnership include research, development, production, and investment,” Ukroboronprom said.

Ukraine desperately needs advanced air defence systems as Russia continues to carry out massive combined attacks on Ukrainian cities, using missiles and drones of different types.

Kyiv’s air defence capabilities totally depend on allied aid at the moment.

Herman Smetanin, Ukroboronprom’s CEO, said the agreement with MBDA Deutschland laid “a solid foundation” for Ukraine’s defence industry development and helped its integration into the NATO defence industry.

“This agreement marks a milestone between the defence industries in our countries,” Thomas Gottschild, MBDA Deutschland managing director, was quoted as saying by Ukroboronprom.

Ukraine has a joint venture with the German Rheinmetall to service and repair Western weapons sent to help Kyiv fend off Russia. The company also plans to open an ammunition factory in the country. (Source: Google/Reuters)

 

21 Feb 24. Over 65 Russian troops killed in Himars strike. More than 65 Russian soldiers have been killed in a HIMARS rocket strike on a military base in the Donetsk region, it has been claimed. Russian military bloggers reported that three Himars rockets struck the training ground of Russia’s 39th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade in the occupied village of Trudivs’ke in Southern Donetsk, killing over 65 troops.

Pictures shared on social media appeared to show dozens of bodies strewn across a field, with others being lined up by survivors.

The strike was launched at around 9am yesterday when the military brigade was forming up, it is reported. An unknown number of Russian soldiers were injured. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

20 Feb 24. Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers ‘captured’ in chaotic withdrawal from eastern city. Up to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been taken prisoner or are unaccounted for following the retreat from Avdiivka, sources claim. Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by Russia during their chaotic withdrawal from the eastern city of Avdiivka.

‌Western and Ukrainian sources said between 850 and 1,000 troops appear to have been taken prisoner or are unaccounted for following the retreat, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s newly-appointed commander-in-chief, had decided to pull back from the symbolic city in the Donetsk region to prevent his men being encircled by advancing Russian forces.

Kyiv’s troops had found themselves outgunned and outnumbered in an increasingly desperate battle to hold the industrial town after Moscow significantly ramped up its effort to secure its first battlefield victory in months.

The retreat was believed to have gone according to plan with minimal losses after one of Ukraine’s best, battle-hardened units was deployed to stabilise the situation and cover the withdrawal.

However, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of Ukraine’s forces in the area, acknowledged some troops had been taken prisoner.

He said: “Nevertheless, at the final stage of the operation, under the pressure of the prevailing enemy forces, a number of Ukrainian servicemen were captured.”

Kyiv has since attempted to downplay losses suffered during the withdrawal after the pullback was ordered last Friday. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

 

19 Feb 24. ISW: Russia show signs of localised air superiority in Ukraine for first time.  The ISW reports that on 17 February 2024, Russian forces launched 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainain positions in Avdiivka in one day. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that Russia has “temporarily established limited and localised air superiority” during the final days of its activity in Avdiivka before the Ukrainian withdrawal. This would likely be the first time this has happened in the war in Ukraine, a conflict marked by Mutual Air Denial, where nether side’s air forces have been able to operate outside of territory supported by ground troops. The success of relatively inexpensive and abundant Ukrainian surface-to-air Stinger missiles and other ground air-defences has up to this date been credited with preventing Russia from fully utilising its air assets for conducting long-distance strikes. So far, they have been confined to operating in a close air support role, remaining within territory where Russia ground forces can interdict potential threats to the high cost aerial assets.  The ISW reports that on 17 February 2024, Russian forces launched 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka in one day, citing a spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operation near the location, and added that a Ukrainian soldier in the area stated Russian forces had launched up to 500 glide bombs in recent days. The effective deployment of glide bombs by Russia is broadly acknowledged by Russian sources as a key factor in breaching Ukrainian defences in Avdiivka. Furthermore, some Russian military bloggers have claimed that Russia has achieved air superiority in the region. Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, reported that on February 14, Russian military carried out 73 airstrikes along the Tavriisk front, from Avdiivka to western Zaporizhia Oblast, marking an unprecedented level of aerial attacks. This surge in activity is part of an intensified tactical manoeuvre in Avdiivka by Russian forces. (Source: Google/airforce-technology.com)

 

19 Feb 24. Ukraine war shows Royal Navy how to strike unprepared enemy with maritime tech, expert says. A military expert says the war in Ukraine has shown the Royal Navy the importance of using potent maritime technology in beating a formidable enemy.

In the two years since the Russian invasion, Ukraine has used every weapon at its disposal to hit the Russian Navy – from cruise missile strikes on Russia’s naval headquarters at Sevastopol to drone attacks on Russian warships.

It has been a David and Goliath battle, but Ukraine’s use of asymmetric warfare has paid off.

Professor Alessio Patalano believes the conflict will give the Royal Navy three key takeaways.

Firstly – geography matters. The Russian Navy failed to capitalise on its presence in Crimea. It did not protect its ships.

For the UK, with a strong military presence in the North Sea, Gibraltar and Cyprus, it highlights the need to find more innovative ways to protect the fleet.

Prof Patalano told Forces News’ Simon Newton: “The UK is actually debating at the moment the extent to which mobile long-range land-based fire can actually release some of the capabilities that at the moment would be deployed for that – notably destroyers with wide area defence capabilities.

“If you have this mobile deployable land-based, long-range fires that you can deploy in the proximity/vicinity of these strategic points, then all of a sudden… putting a cost, if you want, on others trying to go through these spaces, releases some of your forces to do other stuff.”

The next lesson, on which the Royal Navy is hard at work, is how to use drone technology to increase its lethality.

Professor Patalano explained: “The second thing is about – can we have a thousand-ship Navy? By that I mean a Navy that incorporates unmanned and autonomous capabilities, both on the surface and in the air, as part of our forces structure.

“Of course we can – the Navy is thinking about it. It has one of the largest undersea autonomous they call programme at the moment that it’s exploring in terms of ‘what would be the best way to use these very large submersibles as other ships that deploy additional drones as delivery tools, if you want, to begin with’.”

Last week, Kyiv’s armed forces claimed Ukraine destroyed a Russian landing ship belonging to Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet.

In a post on Telegram, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said it had destroyed the Caesar Kunikov, an amphibious assault vessel, using uncrewed surface drones.

Alongside the post, the Ukrainian MOD released footage of the drone strikes.

Finally, the ability of Ukraine to neutralise Russia’s Black Sea fleet also prompts questions about how the Navy uses its ships.

Prof Patalano told Forces News: “One of the lessons that is emerging from Ukraine is that, you know this constant anxiety – ‘are fleets obsolete? Are carriers obsolete?’ We’re almost missing the bigger picture here.

“The point is not about the ship, but what we’re really looking at is how incredibly transformative the age we live in. It’s about sensor systems, it’s about combat weapons, it’s what you put on the ship.

“Fleets will remain absolutely central – because without a fleet, you cannot project men, human beings and therefore the states and the institutions they represent and stand for, through the ocean, far away from national shores.”

While Ukraine had predominantly been a land and air war, it has highlighted how potent maritime technology can be against an unprepared enemy – a lesson the Royal Navy will scrutinise and digest as it prepares for the naval engagements of the 21st century. (Source: forces.net)

 

19 Feb 24. Europe seeks to sway Trump camp on NATO, Ukraine aid. Even as they insist they are not dancing to Donald Trump’s tune on NATOEuropean leaders are singing from a song sheet designed to appeal to the former U.S. president and his Republican supporters.

Trump sparked fierce criticism from Western officials for suggesting he would not protect countries that failed to meet the transatlantic military alliance’s defence spending targets, and would even encourage Russia to attack them.

At the weekend, the comments by the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination hung over the Munich Security Conference, a big annual gathering of politicians, soldiers and diplomats that is often a barometer of U.S.-European relations.

European leaders are anxious not only about NATO’s future if Trump beats incumbent President Joe Biden in November but also about a hold-up to a $60 bn Ukraine aid package in the U.S. Congress, as Republicans demand border security measures to pass the bill.

Ukrainian and Western leaders say the package is vital as Kyiv’s forces struggle almost two years after Russia’s invasion began. Moscow said on Sunday it had taken full control of the devastated eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka.

European leaders are reaching out to U.S. lawmakers, business leaders and think tanks as part of efforts to influence the Trump camp that began even before his controversial comments a week ago.

Among their arguments: Europe is spending more on defence and will do more; such spending and aid for Ukraine are worth bns to U.S. arms firms; and protecting Europe projects U.S. strength to China – a major focus of Trump’s foreign policy.

“We Europeans must take much greater care of our own security, now and in the future,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told the conference in the luxury Bayerischer Hof hotel, attended by dozens of U.S. lawmakers.

“The willingness to do so is very great,” he declared.

OWN INTERESTS

Scholz and other European leaders, such as Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte – the favourite to be NATO’s next boss – insisted they were getting more serious about defence because it was in their own interests, not because of Trump.

But they aim to persuade Trump and his followers that sticking with NATO, as he did during his presidency despite complaining loudly, would be good for them too.

“It is in the U.S. interest to have a NATO alliance with strong allies that can reinforce U.S. influence,” Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told Reuters in Munich.

Late last month, current NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg travelled to the U.S. for a visit partly designed to sell the alliance and support for Ukraine to the Trump camp.

He spoke at the Heritage Foundation, a Trump-friendly think tank in Washington, and visited, opens new tab a Lockheed Martin plant in Alabama that makes Javelin anti-tank missiles.

“The money which is allocated to Ukraine, very much of that money ends up in the United States. Because they buy weapons – for example, the Javelins – from defence producers in the United States,” Stoltenberg said in Munich.

Citing U.S concerns about China, he said: “The United States represents 25% of the world’s GDP. Together with NATO allies, we represent 50% of the world’s GDP and 50% of the world’s military might. So as long as we stand together, we are safe.”

European leaders say their higher defence spending reflects a view that Russia now poses a far greater security threat.

It also reflects a growing view among European governments that they will have to take more responsibility for their security in the years ahead, regardless of who wins the next U.S. presidential election.

“The U.S. over time, I think, will be less inclined to feel that they have to fully underwrite European security,” Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins told Reuters.

Eighteen of NATO’s 31 members are expected to meet its defence spending target of at least 2% of GDP this year, up from 11 in 2023, the alliance says. Germany and France, the European Union’s biggest economies, are among those expecting to reach the goal.

The U.S. spent around 3.5% of its GDP on defence in 2023, according to NATO estimates.

COLD SHOWER

But defence is about much more than spending figures. The U.S. also brings the might of a superpower, its nuclear arsenal, and a U.S.-led command structure to NATO’s defence of Europe.

How much impact the Europeans’ arguments will have on Trump and Republican lawmakers is an open question.

U.S. Republican Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio – a prominent Trump backer – delivered something of a cold shower to the Munich audience.

He said Russian President Vladimir Putin did not pose an existential threat to Europe, and Americans and Europeans could not provide enough munitions to defeat Russia in Ukraine.

“There are a lot of bad guys all over the world. And I’m much more interested in some of the problems in East Asia right now than I am in Europe,” Vance said.

He welcomed increased European defence spending and said he did not expect Trump to pull out of NATO if he returns to the White House. But he said Washington would pivot further to focus on Asia so Europe would have to be much more militarily capable.

“It’s not just about money spent – how many mechanized brigades could Germany field tomorrow? Maybe one?” he asked.

“The American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy.” (Source: Reuters)

 

19 Feb 24. UK QinetiQ UAV, suspected decoy or kamikaze, downed near Russians. British MQM-185B drones, modeled after the Banshee Jet 80+, have been spotted near Russian standpoints in the disputed Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine.

According to information from Russian sources, this drone was set for self-destruction and intercepted and brought down by their aerial defense units. Nevertheless, a close examination of the footage that has emerged shows no evident signs of missile or anti-aircraft fire.

It seems conceivable that Ukrainian forces may use such drones to detect Russian air defenses and divert their attention away from their actual targets. Although this is technically feasible, there is also the possibility of these drones being modified into single-use attack drones, or what’s commonly known as “suicide” drones.

The platform

Used in over 40 countries, the Banshee Jet 80+ drones have become a crucial tool for training exercises. These flying devices possess the remarkable ability to simulate various battlefield perils, such as fast combat aircraft or cruise missiles.

Originating from the UK-based enterprise QinetiQ, the MQM-185B is a unique aerial target drone designed to mirror realistic military threat scenarios. With its impressive peak altitude of 30,000 feet, this drone can simulate both low-level sea skimming and terrain following. This makes it an excellent imitation of in-theater threats for training purposes.

In the words of QinetiQ’s Target Systems Customer Account Manager, Ryan Peterson, “The fusion of the MQM-185B with QinetiQ’s adaptable engineering and operational model gives us the edge of delivering a tailored platform that not only meets customer expectations but also enhances the agility and cost-effectiveness of their operations.”

2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

On February 21, 2022, Russia stated that its border facility was attacked by Ukrainian forces, resulting in the deaths of five Ukrainian fighters. However, Ukraine quickly dismissed these allegations, labeling them as ‘false flags’.

In a notable move on the same day, Russia announced it officially recognized the self-proclaimed areas of DPR and LPR. Interestingly, according to Russian President Putin, this recognition covered all the Ukrainian regions. Following this declaration, Putin sent a battalion of Russia’s military forces, tanks included, into these areas.

Fast forward to February 24, 2022, global headlines were dominated by a significant incident. Putin commanded a forceful military assault on Ukraine. Led by Russia’s impressive Armed Forces positioned at the Ukrainian border, this assault wasn’t spontaneous but a premeditated action. Despite the circumstances resembling a war, the Russian government refrains from using this term. They’d rather refer to it as a “special military operation”. (Source: News Now/https://bulgarianmilitary.com/)

 

19 Feb 24. Rheinmetall to produce artillery ammunition in Ukraine. Rheinmetall, Europe’s largest ammunition maker, plans to open a new plant in Ukraine. Rheinmetall and a Ukrainian partner company have signed a memorandum of understanding to set up a joint venture which in future will produce ammunition in Ukraine. The MoU was signed in the presence of Alexander Kamyshin, the Ukrainian Minister for Strategic Industries, during the Munich Security Conference.

The “Ukrainian Competence Center for Ammunition” is to produce a six-digit number of 155mm calibre bullets per year in the future, including the corresponding propelling charges. To achieve this, the partners plan to build and jointly operate a new production facility. Rheinmetall will have a 51 percent stake in the new company, with the remaining 49 percent share held by the Ukrainian partner.

Just the other day, on 12 February, Chancellor Scholz took part in the ground-breaking ceremony for a new plant at Unterlüß in Lower Saxony which, along with explosives and rocket artillery components, will also produce artillery ammunition starting in 2025.

“Demand for ammunition in many countries is enormous – first and foremost in Ukraine, of course. Our intention of establishing another joint venture underscores our support for Ukraine. This joint venture will make a vital contribution to the country’s ability to defend itself – and thus to the security of all Europe”, declares Armin Papperger, chairman of the executive board of Rheinmetall AG.

As Mr Papperger puts it, “We want to be an effective partner of Ukraine, to help rebuild the country’s once powerful defence industry, and to assure Ukrainian autonomy in ammunition production. Already today, we are Kyiv’s most important defence industry partner. We are currently processing several bn euros worth of projects on behalf of Ukraine, with more almost daily.”

Rheinmetall is not only the world’s largest producer of artillery ammunition and a defence technology leader. It also has the expertise needed to plan, build and operate facilities for producing ammunition.

In October 2023 Rheinmetall AG and Ukraine’s state-owned enterprise Ukrainian Defense Industry JSC (UDI, the former Ukroboronprom) established a first joint venture in Kyiv – Rheinmetall Ukrainian Defense Industry LLC. In a first step, the company will maintain and repair combat vehicles; later, armored vehicles will also be built in Ukraine.

 

19 Feb 24. Ukraine Reveals New EW-Resistant, Night Vision Combat Drone. Ukrainian tech firm Skylab UA has developed an electronic warfare-resistant combat drone with night vision capabilities. The Shoolika Mk6 was announced by Ukraine Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, who revealed that the system is capable of launching accurate strikes even in nighttime operations.

“The Defense Forces have already tested the Shoolika mk6 and offered their feedback: the drone is important for tactical operations, especially at night,” Fedorov said.

The drone, currently undergoing NATO codification, is slated to receive updates in its artificial intelligence and camera capabilities for more effective use during tactical operations.

Capable of carrying up to 6 kilograms (13 pounds) of payload, the Mk6 can operate at a distance of up to 10 kilometers (6 miles).

Drones in the War

Ukraine has relied on drones to counter Russia’s forces, employing the capabilities as a way to minimize casualties on the battlefield.

Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the creation of a separate military branch focusing on bolstering the armed forces’ “unmanned and robotic air, sea, and ground systems.”

Ukraine’s drones have been successful in destroying some of Russia’s heavy-duty equipment, including a long-range supersonic bomber and an oil tanker in the Kerch strait loaded with fuel. (Source: UAS VISION/The Defense Post)

 

17 Feb 24. Zelenskiy urges leaders to send arms as ‘artificial’ shortage helps Putin.

• Summary
• Global security conference dominated by Ukraine, Israel wars
• U.S. allies also fret about possible Trump re-election
• EU’s von der Leyen: bloc will present defence industry strategy
• European leaders acknowledge: their aid to Ukraine is not enough

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged allies at a global security conference on Saturday to plug an “artificial” shortage of weapons that is giving Russian forces the upper hand on the battlefield and said stalled U.S. aid was imperative. Addressing the gathering of politicians, diplomats and military officials from around the world, who gave him a standing ovation, Zelenskiy mixed gratitude for the support shown by Western countries with urging them for more. He spoke at a critical juncture in Russia’s nearly two-year-old invasion of Ukraine, with his troops forced to withdraw from the devastated eastern town of Avdiivka.

Ukraine faces acute shortages of ammunition and U.S. military aid has been delayed for months in Congress.

“Unfortunately keeping Ukraine in an artificial deficit of weapons, particularly in … artillery and long-range capabilities, allows (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war,” Zelenskiy said.

He said that sending additional packages of weapons and air defences to Ukraine was the most important thing its allies could do.

“If your artillery (range) is 20 km (12 miles), but Russia’s is 40 km, there is your answer,” Zelenskiy said.

Some European leaders cast a downbeat assessment of Western efforts to help Ukraine.

“We should have supported you much more from the very beginning of this war,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, “because Ukraine cannot win a war without weapons. Words are simply not enough.”

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Europe should have started investing more in its defence industry two years ago.

Along with Ukraine, the conference focused on the war in Gaza, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting there was “an extraordinary opportunity” in the coming months for Israel to normalise ties with its Arab neighbours.

U.S. FUNDING

Asked about the delayed U.S. aid after a bilateral meeting with Zelenskiy, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, denounced “political gamesmanship” in Congress that had no place in such matters.

U.S. Republicans have insisted for months that any additional U.S. aid to Ukraine, and Israel, must also address concerns about migration.

Meanwhile Donald Trump, frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, has said he would ask European allies to reimburse the United States for around $200 bn worth of munitions sent to Ukraine.

That has raised concerns by Kyiv and its allies that U.S. funding for Kyiv in its war against Russia would dry up completely if Trump goes on to win a second term in the November U.S. election.

Zelenskiy said there was no alternative though to U.S. aid.

“We are counting on the United States as our strategic partner, that they would remain our strategic partner,” he said.

EUROPE MUST UP ITS DEFENCE GAME

The delay in U.S. aid is putting more of a burden on Europe, with Germany the second-largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine. Berlin says it has provided and committed to some 28 bn euros ($30.2 bn) of such aid so far.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz side-stepped questions on Saturday on whether to give long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, although he did urge other European capitals to match Berlin’s hike in military assistance.

Speaking to Reuters at the conference, Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said his country was “ready to stand up and be counted” on defence spending ahead of a NATO Washington summit in July.

The country last year set a target for the first time to raise its defence spending to at least 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2026, in line with a long-held goal among members of the NATO alliance.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine must be integrated into Europe’s defence programmes as Russia was “outmassing Ukraine” with soldiers and by “throwing quick and dirty weapons produced in North Korea and Iran”.

The European Commission will present a defence industrial strategy proposal in three weeks, she said, and will also open a defence innovation office in Ukraine.

A potential return of Trump to the White House is fanning fears about U.S. commitment to defending its allies.

Trump said a week ago that if re-elected later this year he would not defend allies within the NATO western defence alliance who fail to spend enough on defence – although the NATO charter specifically commits members to defending each other in the event of attack.

‘STOP WHINING ABOUT TRUMP’

Trump or no Trump, Europe still has to strengthen its ability to defend itself, Scholz and others underscored at the conference, dubbed the “Davos of Defence”.

“We should stop moaning and whining and nagging about Trump,” said outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. “We do not spend more on defence or ramp up ammunitions production because Trump might come back.”

“We have to work with whoever is on the dance floor,” said Rutte, frontrunner to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as secretary-general of NATO when he steps down.

Stoltenberg reiterated the importance of not undermining the defence alliance with talk of European defence autonomy.

Talk in particular of a potential European nuclear deterrent that would not involve the United States is “not helpful”, he told Munich delegates on Saturday. And it “would only undermine NATO in a time when we really need credible deterrence”. ($1 = 0.9282 euros) (Source: Reuters)

 

19 Feb 24. Moscow-appointed governors ‘poisoned.’  Russia has accused Ukraine of poisoning two Moscow-appointed officials serving in annexed Ukrainian provinces.

The Kremlin’s Defence Ministry has published a briefing claiming Ukraine poisoned Leonid Pasechnik, the governor of Luhansk, in December 2023, and Vladimir Saldo, the governor of Kherson, in August 2022, though both remain alive.

The report said that on 5 December, Mr Pasechnik, a former officer in Ukraine’s SBU security service turned pro-Russia separatist, “received severe poisoning with phenolic compounds”.

It added that Mr Saldo, a former mayor of Kherson city and pro-Russian lawmaker in Ukraine’s parliament, was hospitalised on August 9 2022 with symptoms of poisoning.

Russian-installed authorities in Kherson said in August 2022 that Mr Saldo had fallen sick, but did not say that he had been poisoned. The governor has since returned to public prominence in the Russian-controlled part of Kherson region.

The two regions were among four Ukrainian provinces that Russia declared it had annexed in September 2022 before hosting a series of “sham-elections” to install pro-Kremlin candidates.

Ukraine has not yet responded to the allegations. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

16 Feb 24. Estonia bolsters support for Ukraine with drone and demining coalitions. The outbreak of war in Ukraine saw the most widespread use of both consumer and military drone technology in a conflict to date.

At the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (Ramstein) meeting, Estonia pledged its support by joining Latvian-led drone and Lithuanian-led demining coalitions, signalling a strategic move to enhance Ukraine’s military and humanitarian efforts.

In solidarity, Estonia’s Minister of Defence, Hanno Pevkur, affirmed the country’s dedication to reinforcing Ukraine’s defence initiatives through collaborative ventures in drone technology and demining operations. The announcement during the recent Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting in Brussels shows Estonia’s proactive stance in assisting Ukraine amidst ongoing regional tensions.

Lithuania’s call for demining support answered

While the meeting marked the first gathering following the change of command in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it witnessed unanimous support from defence ministers towards sustaining military aid to Ukraine. Minister Pevkur’s endorsement of Estonia’s participation in the Latvian-led drone coalition and Lithuanian-led demining coalition signifies a strategic alignment with neighbouring allies to bolster Ukraine’s capabilities on the battlefield and in humanitarian efforts.

In September, 2023, Lithuania highlighted the importance of bolstering support for its Demining Coalition despite being lower on the agenda. Minister of National Defence Arvydas Anušauskas urged undecided nations to join and contribute to the demining efforts. The coalition, formed over three months ago, comprises Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden, focusing on a ‘train and equip’ principle to supply demining equipment and personnel training to the Ukrainian military.

“We are joining efforts within these coalitions to enhance drone capabilities in Ukraine and explore avenues for combat and humanitarian demining support,” stated Minister Pevkur, highlighting Estonia’s commitment to leveraging collective expertise for the benefit of Ukraine.

Drone technology prioritised

The outbreak of war in Ukraine saw the most widespread use of both consumer and military drone technology in a conflict to date, as outlined in GlobalData’s “Thematic Intelligence: Drones in Aerospace & Defense (2023)” report.

Amidst discussions at the Ramstein meeting, where ministers convened in person at NATO headquarters, and virtually, updates on the activities of capability coalitions were shared. Minister Pevkur provided insights into the progress of the IT Coalition, co-led by Estonia and Luxembourg, emphasizing the coalition’s growth with 11 states onboard and financial contributions exceeding €30m ($32.4m). Notably, the coalition’s Steering Group has greenlit NATO procurement agency NSPA to initiate purchases aiding Ukraine’s needs.

The IT Coalition, initiated in September 2023, aims to enhance Ukraine’s information and communication capabilities, bolstering efficiency on the battlefield. With support from member states and the recent addition of the United Kingdom’s declaration of intent to join, the coalition continues to strengthen Ukraine’s defence infrastructure.

The UK and Latvia have also launched a coalition to supply thousands of first-person view (FPV) drones to bolster Ukraine’s defence capabilities. The initiative represents a strategic shift towards prioritizing drone technology to enhance situational awareness on the battlefield.

Long-term commitment to Ukraine

Minister Pevkur reiterated the significance of 2024 as a pivotal year for the Ramstein coalition, emphasising the imperative for the US and Europe to align on long-term support strategies for Ukraine. Estonia’s commitment to allocate 0.25% of its GDP for the next four years shows a sustained effort to bolster Ukraine’s defence capabilities amidst evolving geopolitical dynamics.

The primary driver of Estonia’s large budget increase is the heightened risks and concerns over Russia following the 2022 Ukraine invasion and Russia’s continued aggressive posturing. Estonia has provided Ukraine with ongoing funding to assist them in the conflict, making this a major driver of expenditure, as per GlobalData’s “Estonia Defense Market 2023-2028” report.

Analysing the impact of collective commitments, the Estonian Ministry of Defence underscores the potential for progress in Ukraine’s defence landscape. With member states dedicating 0.25% of GDP, coupled with intensified training, enhanced production, and continued delivery of weapons systems.

In parallel discussions, the Baltic States and three NATO battlegroup framework nations convened to address regional security concerns, signalling a concerted effort to fortify stability and cooperation in the Baltic region.

Estonia’s proactive engagement in multinational coalitions reflects a shared commitment among allies to support Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, underscoring the enduring partnership between Baltic and NATO nations in navigating complex geopolitical challenges. (Source: army-technology.com)

 

19 Feb 24. Russia could exploit Ukraine’s weapons shortage by launching multiple front-line attacks. Russia is likely attempting to capitalise on dwindling Western weapons supplies to Ukraine by launching multiple attacks across the front lines, according to a leading think-tank.

Since capturing the Donetsk region city of Avdiivka, Moscow’s forces have stepped up attacks in the western Zaporizhia and the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Kremlin’s troops cemented their control over Avdiivka over the weekend, raising a flag over the industrial town’s hulking, Soviet-era coke and chemical plant complex, which served as the final stronghold for Ukrainian forces before their withdrawal.

Both Ukrainian and Western sources revealed that biting ammunition shortages, mainly artillery shells and air defence systems, had played a major role in the fall of Avdiivka.

“Critical Ukrainian shortages in Western-provided equipment and fears of the complete cessation of US military aid have forced Ukrainian troops to husband material along the entire front, which has likely encouraged Russian forces to exploit the situation and launch limited offensive operations outside of the Avdiivka area,” ISW wrote in its daily battlefield report, published late on Sunday.

Days after securing the capture of Avdiivka, Russian forces unleashed a massive armed onslaught against Robotyne, a small village in the southern Zaporizhia region, which was the epicentre of Ukraine’s much-vaunted summer counter-offensive last year.

The Ukrainian defence ministry claimed it had destroyed 18 Russian armoured vehicles and three tanks as the Russian military launched attacks on Kyiv-held positions near the settlement.

Battlefield footage shared by Ukrainian sources appeared to show large Russian mechanised assaults being immediately swarmed by first-person view kamikaze drones as they approached Robotyne through open fields.

Other aerial videos appear to show anti-tank guided missiles and DPICM cluster munitions being used to halt the advancing Russians.

It is likely Russian forces are trying to whittle away the small salient established by Ukraine during its counter-offensive towards the Azov Sea last year, which was thwarted by heavy Russian defences.

Ukraine’s general staff said on Monday it had also repelled at least 12 attacks along the Russian axis of advance between Kupiansk and Lyman.

Military chiefs also warned that occupying forces were attempting to push out of Avdiivka towards Ukraine’s fallback positions in the nearby villages of Lastochkyne, and Novobakhmutivka to the west of the fallen city.

But ISW said it was unlikely that Moscow would be able to generate enough momentum to make further, significant gains into the remaining Ukrainian-held area of the Donetsk region.

“Russian forces have not yet demonstrated an ability to secure operationally significant gains or conduct rapid mechanised manoeuvre across large swaths of territory, and the capture of Avdiivka should not be taken as demonstrating this capability,” the think-tank said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

18 Feb 24. Denmark gives all of its artillery shells to Ukraine. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, the Danish prime minister suggested that other European nations should follow suit. Denmark’s prime minister said on Sunday that her country was handing over all of its shells to Ukraine as she urged other European states to provide more weapons.

“We decided to donate our entire artillery,” Mette Frederiksen said at the Munich Security Conference, suggesting that other European nations should follow suit.

“I’m sorry to say friends, there is still ammunition in stock in Europe. This is not only a question about production because we have weapons, we have ammunition, we have our defences that we don’t have to use at the moment, that we should deliver to Ukraine,” she said. “We have to do more.”

Ms Frederiksen said Denmark would soon deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and was still seeking more partners to supply the advanced fighter planes.

She acknowledged that Nato countries had done a lot to aid Ukraine in its war, but added: “I think it’s quite clear to all of us that it’s not enough. We have to speed up and scale up.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rattled nerves throughout the Nordics. Sweden and Finland applied for Nato membership in May 2022, swiftly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.

Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s prime minister, speaking at the Munich Security Conference CREDIT: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg

Earlier this month, Denmark also said it was reviewing its existing military funding due to the increasing threat posed by the Kremlin.

Denmark’s decision to donate its artillery was announced as Ukraine withdrew its troops from the besieged eastern stronghold of Avdiivka, partly due to ammunition shortages.

Also speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said that the country’s “artificial deficit of weapons” would help Russia.

“Keeping Ukraine in the artificial deficits of weapons, particularly in deficit of artillery and long-range capabilities, allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war,” he said.

“Ukrainians have proven that we can force Russia to retreat,” he added. “We can get our land back.”

Nato allies have been warning that Russia is rapidly expanding its armed forces to prepare for a potential invasion of the Baltics.

Russia recently placed several Baltic politicians on a wanted list for destroying Soviet-era monuments.

Kaja Kallas, the Estonian prime minister, on Sunday dismissed a warrant issued by Russia for her arrest, saying it was just an attempt to intimidate her amid speculation she could get a top European Union post.

Once ruled by Moscow, but now a member of both the European Union and Nato, Estonia has been a supporter of Kyiv, and Ms Kallas has been one of Moscow’s most vocal critics since the Russian invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.

“It is meant to intimidate and make me refrain from the decisions that I would otherwise make,” Ms Kallas said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference. “But it’s Russia’s playbook. It’s nothing surprising and we are not afraid.”

The Baltic politicians risk being arrested only if they cross the Russian border.

Ms Kallas’s high profile in pushing the EU to do more to support Ukraine has led to speculation in Brussels that she could take on a senior role after the next EU parliamentary elections in June, possibly as foreign policy chief.

She said that speculation was also contributing to Russia’s aggression towards her.

“It’s hard to be popular,” she said ironically. “The Russians have also seen that, and that’s why they issued the arrest warrant to really emphasise the biggest argument against me, that I am a provocation to Russia.”

When asked whether she was interested in any future European role, she said: “We are not there yet. I’m the prime minister of Estonia.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

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