NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Feb 16.

Navalny death will increase unrest risk and repression of Kremlin critics.

Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service reported earlier on 16 February that jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has died in his Siberian prison. The service said the cause of death is being determined. According to Navalny’s lawyer Leonid Solovyov, a lawyer had visited him on 14 February, though no abnormal heath concerns had been noted.

SIGNIFICANCE

Navalny had been in prison since 2021 following his recovery in Germany from nerve agent poisoning that he blamed on the Kremlin. He was serving a 19-year sentence on corruption charges, but given he remained the most prominent anti-Kremlin politician in Russia at the time, and head of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), these charges were almost certainly politically motivated.
Navalny’s press secretary, Kira Yarmysh, reported on 14 February that Navalny had been sent to a punitive isolation cell for 15 days for the 27th time since his imprisonment. On 26 December 2023, Navalny confirmed that he had been transferred to a penal colony in the Arctic Circle, Ik-3 Polar Wolf, which is among the harshest in Russia’s prison system. In January, another prominent imprisoned anti-Kremlin figure Vladimir Kara-Murza was transferred to prison in Siberia’s Omsk oblast where he has been placed in solitary confinement for four months. In both cases, the transfer was kept secret for two weeks.
Navalny’s death comes ahead of the Russian presidential election on 15-17 March. On 1 February, Navalny called for Russians opposed to the Kremlin to peacefully protest by heading en masse to voting stations on 17 March at 1200hrs (local time).

FORECAST

It remains highly likely that Navalny was killed by the Russian authorities; the latest in a growing list of assassinations of political dissidents both within Russia and abroad.

Although Navalny’s close associates have not yet called for domestic unrest in response to his death, there is a realistic possibility that protests will materialise in the coming hours and days. Calls for demonstrations are more likely to intensify if his team or other Russian anti-government figures maintain that his death was the result of foul play, which we assess is highly likely. However, there is also a possibility that Navalny’s supporters could co-ordinate demonstrations in the capital Moscow and/or other major cities without the encouragement of his team – many of whom are likely in hiding.

Data from Russia’s independent Levada Center in February 2023 indicated that support for Navalny has decreased in recent years. While polling in Russia must be treated with scepticism, approval for Navalny’s work stood at 20% in September 2020; in January 2023 just 9% of respondents shared this view. While Navalny’s international reputation has often eclipsed his lukewarm support within Russia, his death is likely to drive calls for protests – just weeks before the presidential election.

Russian authorities will likely ramp up the surveillance of prominent Navalny’s supporters, lawyers and other anti-Kremlin activists to disrupt efforts to co-ordinate protests. Netizens on social media have expressed concerns for the security of other imprisoned dissidents, including Kara-Murza and nationalist figure Igor Strelkov (Girkin). Mass arrests and pre-emptive crackdowns against any spontaneous protesting are highly likely in the coming days, with heavy-handed repression likely to increase bystander risks significantly.

Navalny’s death could realistically also be accompanied by assassinations of Navalny’s associates, most of whom are in exile across Europe. As such, targeted assassination risks will moderately increase in many European cities, which given previous precedents such as the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal in the UK, could realistically pose moderate risks of nerve agent exposure to bystanders.

Feb 15.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

DONETSK: Ukraine has deployed additional reinforcements to Avdiivka; the situation is becoming more critical and the risk of Kyiv’s forces being surrounded is rising
STRIKES: Russian forces launched a large-scale missile attack on 15 February, with ballistic and cruise missiles targeting numerous oblasts, including Kyiv
NEGOTIATIONS: Reuters reported that the US rejected a ceasefire proposal from Russian President Vladimir Putin to freeze the war; however, even if talks took place, it remains highly unlikely that it was a genuine offer to end the war
FORECAST: The US has briefed allies on a reported new Russian space-based anti-satellite (ASAT) capability that poses a credible threat to Western interests; while an attack using this capability remains unlikely, it poses various threats
BAKHMUT: Russian forces have advanced west of Bakhmut in recent days, with geolocated footage from 12-13 February confirming advances along the T-0504 road that runs towards Ivanivske (due west of Bakhmut). Russian sources also claimed on 12 February that their forces advanced up to 0.6 miles (1km) along the O0506 road that connects Bakhmut with Chasiv Yar, to the north of the T-0504 (though this remains unconfirmed). Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military has denied claims that Russian forces have advanced to within 1.2 miles (2km) of Chasiv Yar.
DONETSK: On 15 February, Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade issued a statement confirming it has been redeployed to Avdiivka, where the operational situation has become critical. The unit reported that some battalions conducted raids into Russian-held areas of the city, and that enemy forces in the sector consist of around seven brigades. According to the statement, two Russian brigades are in a critical state, though the Russian command continues to rotate troops and deploy new equipment to the sector. On 15 February, Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lukhoviy announced that some Ukrainian units have retreated to more advantageous positions to prepare for raids to re-capture lost positions. The official also stated that as of 15 February, Ukrainian forces have secured a route to ensure supplies and the potential evacuation of the city. According to Ukrainian military authorities, Russia has concentrated around 50,000 personnel in the Avdiivka sector, thus reflecting Moscow’s commitment to sustain the current intensity of attacks.
DONETSK: The latest Ukrainian military statements clearly underscore the deterioration of the situation in Avdiivka and the need for additional reinforcements to keep ground lines of communication (GLOCs) open. On 14 February, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) revealed that Russian forces control around 15.4% of the city’s territory. Meanwhile, geolocated footage indicates that Russian troops are steadily making gains into the centre of the city and have also advanced west of Marinka.
KHERSON: Russian forces have made marginal gains in the town of Krynky, the principal Ukrainian beachhead on the left (east) bank of the Dnieper River, located around 22 miles (36km) to the north-east of Kherson city. Geolocated footage published on 13 February confirms that Russian forces have retaken positions in the eastern sector of the town, though their advances remain very slow.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Earlier on 15 February, Russia launched a large-scale strike, including 12 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles, two Kalibr missiles, four Kh-59 guided missiles, six ballistic Iskandr-M missiles and two S-300 missiles. Ukrainian air defences intercepted eight Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 missiles, two Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-59 guided missiles and one Iskandr-M ballistic missile. The attack targeted seven Ukrainian regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Lviv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Reports indicate that residential buildings and infrastructure facilities were damaged; several explosions were recorded in Dnipro, Kyiv, Lviv and Zaporizhzhia.
STRIKES: On 13 February, Ukraine intercepted 16 of 23 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia. The projectiles were intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. On the same day, Governor of Odesa oblast Oleh Kiper reported that regional air defences destroyed a Kh-59 missile targeting the city of Odesa, where falling missile debris damaged a residential building.
STRIKES: Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported that naval drones launched by Ukrainian forces early on 14 February destroyed the Russian Ropucha-class landing class ship Caesar Kunikov in the Black Sea. The ship was reportedly hit near Alupka (Crimea) and the attack killed almost all crew members. According to the GUR statement, the warship is the largest amphibious landing ship of its project 775 type. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its forces repelled six drones over Crimean waters, though it did not comment on the ship’s destruction. The UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) reported that three of ten Ropucha-class vessels have now been destroyed by Ukrainian attacks. These vessels play an important role in the provision of logistical support to the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF); as such, the likely loss of the Caesar Kunikov will further strain Russia’s limited naval logistical capabilities in the Black Sea and will further degrade Moscow’s already limited amphibious capability.
STRIKES: On 15 February, the local authorities reported an explosion in the vicinity of a defence enterprise in the city of Biysk (Altai Krai, Russia). The cause of the explosion has yet to be determined. However, there is a realistic possibility that a Ukrainian-orchestrated attack caused the incident, given that Kyiv has increasingly sought to target defence facilities in Russia. Meanwhile, the GUR claimed responsibility for a drone attack that caused a fire at an oil depot in Kursk oblast (Russia) on 15 February. The latest attacks underscore Kyiv’s increasing willingness to degrade logistical capacities, including key oil infrastructure and military manufacturing sites.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

NEGOTIATIONS: Reuters reported on 13 February that the US rejected a ceasefire proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin to freeze the war after contacts between intermediaries in late 2023 and early 2024. According to three unspecified Russian insiders, Putin signalled to the US last year in public and privately, including through Russia’s partners in the Middle East and elsewhere, that he was prepared to consider a ceasefire. Putin allegedly proposed to freeze the war at the current frontlines; he was also reportedly unwilling to cede any Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory. Washington DC reportedly told Moscow via intermediaries that it would not discuss a possible ceasefire without Kyiv, so the contacts ended.
NEGOTIATIONS: While the veracity of the report cannot be confirmed, an unnamed US official stated that Washington DC has not engaged in any back channel talks with Moscow. However, the official revealed that there appeared to have been unofficial ‘track II’ talks among non-government Russians, but that the US was not engaged in these discussions. We assess that Russia is highly unlikely to engage in negotiations to end the war in good faith for the foreseeable future, and that if backchannel talks are underway, these are aimed at undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty by deliberately seeking to negotiate with Washington DC, rather than Kyiv. Ukraine would almost certainly refuse territorial concessions and a ceasefire, given this would highly likely enable Russia to attack Ukraine at a later date.
RECRUITMENT: Reports emerged on 14 February that a Tajik diaspora leader has called for Tajiks to fight in Ukraine on behalf of the regional authorities in Samara oblast (Russia). Sunatullo Nazriev allegedly called on Tajiks who have Russian citizenship and those who want to obtain Russian passports in an expedited manner to join Russia’s armed forces. According to migrant workers, Nazriev warned that those who evade recruitment will be deported to Tajikistan along with their family members for life; he called on Tajiks to sign contracts at military enlistment offices by 25 February.
RECRUITMENT: CNN reported on 11 February that Russia has recruited up to 15,000 Nepalis to fight in Ukraine after Moscow announced lucrative incentives for foreign fighters to join the military last year. According to the outlet, the Nepali government says around 200 of its citizens are fighting for the Russian army, though the real figure is likely to be significantly higher. If these reports are true, they underscore the Russian authorities’ ability to infiltrate various foreign diasporas to coerce migrants to bolster their manpower.
BORDERS: Ukrainian media reported earlier on 15 February that Ukrainian freight carriers began protesting at the Dorohusk-Yahodyn border crossing with Poland in response to the ongoing blockade of Polish farmers. The head of a Ukrainian association for carriers, Vitalii Kotsenko, stated on 14 February that the demonstration is currently planned to last for a month but that its duration could change. Protesters plan not to let in Polish truckers who bypass the general queue at the checkpoint, though the passage of regular buses will not be impeded. Polish farmers likely also intend to stage a total blockade of all border crossings with Ukraine on 20 February.
SECURITY: French President Emmanuel Macron and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky are expected to sign a bilateral security agreement on 16 February in Paris (France). The French presidency did not release specific details about the agreement, though reports indicate that it outlines the framework for long-term humanitarian and financial assistance, as well as support for Ukraine’s reconstruction and military aid. The UK signed a security arrangement with Ukraine in January; we assess that Paris’ arrangement will likely include similar measures (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 16 January 2024).

FORECAST

On 14 February, the US briefed Canada, the UK and numerous other allies on a reported new Russian space-based anti-satellite (ASAT) capability that poses a credible threat to Western interests. The move came after US Republican Representative Mike Turner, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, publicly called for the declassification of information relating to a new ‘serious national security threat’ on 14 February, which led to widespread speculation. The White House has not disclosed the precise nature of the threat, though officials familiar with the matter have confirmed that it is an ASAT weapon, capable of targeting Western satellite capabilities from orbit. On 9 February, the Russian MoD confirmed the launch of a Soyuz-2.1v rocket carrying a classified payload; the resultant satellite is now under the control of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). We assess that it is likely that this launch is linked to the reported new capability. It is important to stress that current indications do not point to an imminent threat to the world’s satellites; we do not assess that Russia will launch an attack in the short-to-medium term.

Initial reports described this new ASAT capability as a ‘nuclear threat’, though it remains unclear whether it is indeed nuclear-armed or simply nuclear-powered. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 expressly forbids the deployment of nuclear weapons in space. However, given that Russia has been withdrawing from the few remaining Cold War-era arms control treaties in recent years, it remains possible that Moscow seeks to install nuclear weapons in space amid growing competition. Even if this capability is nuclear-armed, such a capability would almost certainly be designed to launch nuclear weapons at satellites in orbit, triggering an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP), rather than at targets on Earth. The Kremlin has formally denied any plans to install nuclear weapons in space and described the reports as a US ‘ploy’.

Given existing (known) Russian space weapons development programmes, we assess that it is likely that this new capability is a nuclear-powered non-kinetic ASAT weapon designed to target satellites with electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Russia already retains various non-nuclear kinetic and (possibly non-kinetic) anti-satellite capabilities, such as direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) A-235 PL-19 Nudol missiles, though these are launched from Earth. The establishment of a credible ASAT capability in orbit would present a major threat, against which the West would likely have little ability to defend itself (depending on the exact nature of the capability). It remains a realistic possibility that this new capability is either the experimental (and unconfirmed) Ekipazh nuclear-powered satellite, which is likely envisioned as an EW platform, or the Zeus ‘nuclear tug’ concept that is ostensibly a civilian satellite capable of cleaning up space debris (though this capability is not scheduled for launch until 2030). It is also possibly an entirely new (and secret) project.

Whether nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered, we assess that the use of such an ASAT weapon would have the potential to cause catastrophic damage to global civilian communications, surveillance capabilities, GPS and military command-and-control operations. If such an attack was launched in tandem with deep-sea capabilities that cut key submarine cables in the North Atlantic, the impact would be widespread and catastrophic.

Should Russia deploy such an ASAT weapon, which remains unlikely, we assess that the most likely targets would include privately operated telecommunications satellites that provide capabilities to Kyiv, rather than US-controlled military installations. As we stated in 2022, Russian officials have previously threatened that Western commercial satellites that support operations in ‘an armed conflict’ could become ‘legitimate targets’ for Russian ‘retaliatory strikes’. Ukraine has utilised various Western-supplied satellite capabilities to supports its war effort, including those provided by SpaceX (Starlink) and the Finnish microsatellite producer ICEYE.

It therefore remains a realistic possibility that the deployment of this new Russian capability is, at least in part, a response to the proliferation of small, decentralised satellites; it could conceivably be used to blackmail or threaten Western companies into ceasing the provision of services to the Ukrainian armed forces. While we do not assess that a Russian ASAT attack will threaten private or state-controlled satellites imminently, this new capability will possibly play a role in Russia’s strategic deterrence campaign, which likely incorporates hybrid capabilities (including ASAT weapons) to deter Western support for Ukraine.

In October 2022, we assessed that the threat posed by Russian ASAT capabilities should be taken seriously. Russia’s use of ASAT capabilities has featured as a key threat in our scenario planning for a potential escalation with NATO throughout the war; we will continue to monitor this in the coming months.

Feb 12.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

DONETSK: Russian forces are making creeping advances around Avdiivka amid efforts to cut off key ground lines of communication (GLOC) and reports that Russian forces in the area are now using Starlink terminals
PUTIN: Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to deny Ukraine’s right to statehood during an interview with US media personality Tucker Carlson, underscoring our assessment that Putin’s war goals have not changed
ECONOMY: Bloomberg has reported that Ukraine is considering measures to ensure that IMF funding is not compromised if US aid remains blocked, possibly increasing the risk of tax rises
FORECAST: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Oleksandr Syrskyi as the new Commander-in-Chief of Ukrainian forces, replacing Valery Zaluzhnyi as part of a wider military reshuffle
BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: On 10 February, the commander of Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, stated that one of Russia’s primary goals is to establish control over logistics routes on the northern flank of Avdiivka. He stated that Ukrainian forces have established defences along said routes, and that they have set up additional firing positions and are rotating troops to prevent Russian forces from disrupting ground lines of communication (GLOC).
DONETSK: The Kyiv Independent reported on 10 February that Ukrainian troops are facing growing difficulties in defending Avdiivka, citing numerous Ukrainian commanders at the front. This is reportedly due to a lack of fortification preparations and an increasing shortage of ammunition and defence equipment – reflecting the relatively limited defence-in-depth fortifications that Ukraine has constructed over the last 12 months, in contrast to those constructed by Russia. Ultimately, the security of key supply routes will remain crucial for the defence of Avdiivka, particularly as Russian forces make further inroads towards the centre of the city. Geolocated footage from 11 February shows that Russian troops advanced along Zaliznychnyi Lane in northern Avdiivka. Additional footage from 9 February shows Russian advances in southern parts of Avdiivka along Chernyshevskoho, Sportyvna and Soborna streets.
DONETSK: Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) has stated that Russian forces are utilising Starlink satellite terminals in occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are already highly reliant on the platforms for battlefield communications. Reports began to emerge last week that Russian forces had acquired Starlink terminals in large numbers via an intermediary in the UAE, whereafter they were integrated into frontline units in the Donbas. If this is accurate, as mounting evidence indicates is likely, this would represent a significant dilemma for Ukrainian forces, as well as SpaceX, which has denied that it conducts any direct business with Russia. Given the proximity of Ukrainian and Russian forces along the frontline, as well as widespread GPS jamming, it will remain extremely difficult for SpaceX to determine which Starlink terminals in a given region of the frontline are being operated by which side. As such, if SpaceX cuts coverage to Russian forces in the Donbas, it will also risk cutting off frontline Ukrainian units operating in their vicinity; this would seriously undermine command and control efforts.
KHERSON: Geolocated footage from 8 and 11 February indicates that Ukrainian forces made minor advances in Krynky, the principal Ukrainian beachhead on the left (east) bank of the Dnieper River, located around 22 miles (36km) to the north-east of Kherson city. The Ukrainians’ position in the town remains stable for now, though their ability to reinforce and expand the beachhead remains significantly limited amid intensifying Russian infantry assaults.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage posted on 9 February indicates that Russian forces made limited advances east of Bilohorivka, located around six miles (10km) south of Kreminna. Otherwise, the frontline has remained stable in the Oskil-Kreminna sector over the past few days; the sector has mainly experienced positional fighting.
SOUTHERN: On 11 February, Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces had advanced ‘significantly’ towards Pryyutne, located around 11 miles (18km) south-west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast). However, this remains unconfirmed, as the Ukrainian General Staff reported that attacks in this direction had been repelled on 11 February.
STRIKES: Overnight on 11-12 February, Russia launched 17 Shahed-136/131 drones, one Kh-59 guided missile and an unspecified number of S-300 ballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 14 drones and the Kh-59 missile over Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The attack apparently caused power and water supply outages in Pavlohrad and Synelnykove (both Dnipropetrovsk). А pro-Russia source claimed that the Russian attack hit port facilities, an oil depot and a defence manufacturing facility in Mykolaiv, though such claims remain unconfirmed.
STRIKES: Early on 11 February, Russia launched a large drone strike that included 45 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukraine’s air defences intercepted 40 drones over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr oblasts. The attack caused a fire at a petrol station in the city of Kharkiv (Kharkiv oblast). Late on 11 February, the Kharkiv authorities reported that Russian S-300 missiles hit residential buildings in Liubotyn (Kharkiv). Early on 10 February, Ukraine intercepted 23 of the 31 Russian-launched Shahed 136/131 drones. The projectiles were mainly destroyed over Kharkiv and Odesa. The local authorities indicated that falling drone debris damaged the port infrastructure in Odesa oblast.
STRIKES: On 10 February, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that Russian patrol boats and aircraft repelled a Ukrainian maritime drone attack against Russian civilian transport ships in south-western waters of the Black Sea. Over the past year, Kyiv has increased naval drone attacks against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF), underscoring its growing maritime unmanned vehicle capabilities, though it has not prioritised civilian targets during this campaign. While the Russian MoD’s latest claims remain unconfirmed, Kyiv will possibly seek to intensify attacks against Russian civilian transit ships, especially if they are carrying oil, amid wider efforts to disrupt Russian fuel supplies.
STRIKES: On 9 February, the New York Times (NYT) reported that according to unnamed US officials, Ukraine only has enough air defences to last until March without further Western supplies. The prospect of a major air defence missile shortage has increased in recent months; if the situation worsens, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) will possibly be able to make greater use of its strike aircraft to attack positions closer to the frontline, as well as strategic targets across Ukraine. On 11 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukrainian air defences have intercepted 359 Shahed-136/131 drones since the onset of 2024. Kyiv’s interception rate of Russian drones has remained significantly high. However, the diminishing stocks of defence systems and ammunition will threaten Kyiv’s long-term ability to counter Russian strikes.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

PUTIN: Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to deny Ukraine’s right to statehood during an interview on 8 February with US media personality Tucker Carlson. Putin blamed NATO for the war and described Ukraine as an artificial state that was shaped at the will of Joseph Stalin, the former leader of the Soviet Union. The Russian president stated that the word ‘Ukrainian’ originally meant a person living on the outskirts of the state in a likely attempt to undermine Ukrainian identity. Putin also diverted a question on whether he would be ‘satisfied’ with the territory Russia currently occupies; this strongly suggests that the Kremlin retains its maximalist territorial aims in Ukraine, which include further territorial conquests in the coming years. Ultimately, the interview reaffirmed our assessment that Russia remains highly unlikely to engage in peace negotiations in good faith for the foreseeable future; we assess that it remains determined to continue the war until such a time when it can extract further concessions from Kyiv and the West.
MOLDOVA: On 11 February, Moldova’s border police reported the discovery of Russian drone fragments near the village of Etulia (Vulcănești, Gagauzia autonomous region), close to the Moldovan-Ukrainian frontier. The Moldovan authorities assess that Ukrainian defences shot down the drone on 9-10 February during strikes against Odesa, where Ukraine’s Danube riverine ports are frequently targeted. Etulia is situated around nine miles (15km) north-east of Ukraine’s Danube port of Reni and almost 25 miles (40km) from Izmail port. The latest incident underscores the ongoing spillover risks facing countries bordering Ukraine, particularly Moldova and Romania.
AID: On 11 February, the US Democratic-led Senate voted 67-27 to advance a bill that would provide around USD 95.34 bn in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Lawmakers are expected to hold two procedural votes later on 12 February: the first is to adopt the foreign aid package as an amendment to an underlying House bill and the second is to limit debate ahead of a final vote, which could come on 14 February. While the development highlights progress in advancing more than USD 60 bn in assistance for Ukraine, the motion will likely encounter hurdles in the Republican-controlled House.
ECONOMY: Bloomberg reported on 9 February that Ukraine is considering measures to ensure that IMF funding is not compromised if US aid remains blocked. The outlet reported that this plan includes expanded domestic bond sales, tax hikes and spending cuts; Ukrainian officials intend to propose the measures during an IMF staff visit this week. The visit comes ahead of the IMF’s review of a USD 15.6 bn loan programme, which will start later this month and would unlock USD 900 m in aid in the short term. Ukraine needs to assure the IMF that it can service its debts if its partners fail to provide assistance, which is a condition for the programme.
ECONOMY: Kyiv still expects that US foreign aid will resume in the coming months, an assessment with which the IMF agrees. However, an unspecified Ukrainian official stated that the finance ministry and central bank believe there is a risk that the IMF will not approve the next loan disbursement without the plan if US funding remains blocked. The official stated that the key source of funds to replace those from the US would be an expansion of domestic government borrowing, which could amount to at least USD 5 bn in revenue this year. While most of the USD 60 bn in aid blocked in the US Congress is earmarked for military support, failure to approve the assistance would possibly impact Ukraine’s macro-economic stability and increase the need for Kyiv to increase taxes in order to balance the budget.

FORECAST

RESHUFFLE: On 8 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky formally dismissed Valery Zaluzhnyi as Commander-in-Chief; Oleksandr Syrskyi was subsequently appointed as Zaluzhnyi’s replacement. The move comes amid a wider military reshuffle, which saw the appointment of Oleksandr Pavluik as the new commander of Ground Forces (replacing Syrskyi), Yuriy Sodol as Joint Forces Commander (replacing Serhiy Nayev) and Anatoliy Barhylevych as Chief of the General Staff (replacing Serhiy Shaptala), among other appointments.

Military reshuffles and changes in commanders are a regular feature of protracted wars; with the full-scale war having waged for almost two years, we assess that a change was inevitable at some stage. Civilian control over the military is well entrenched in Ukraine, though civil-military relations were severely strained under Zaluzhnyi and Zelensky. However, the appointment of numerous pro-Zelensky commanders, especially Syrskyi, will likely ease these tensions moving forward. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi is likely to favour a more active defence strategy in 2024 than his predecessor, Zaluzhnyi, though both men have emphasised the need to utilise technology, including unmanned systems and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, to regain the initiative this year. Syrskyi has set out his priorities for the year; they focus on establishing a clear agenda for Ukrainian forces and facilitating the rapid delivery of crucial material to forces at the frontline. While it remains unclear what precisely Syrskyi’s strategy will entail for 2024, we assess that it is likely to align more closely with that of Zelensky; it will likely involve greater efforts to deprive Russian forces of any and all advances – though this will possibly come at a high casualty and material cost. For further analysis on Ukraine’s potential strategy in 2024, see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 2 February 2024.

*Belarus-Russia: Growing economic integration will allow Moscow to mitigate impact of sanctions. On 12 February, the Belarusian ambassador to Russia, Dmitry Krutoi, announced that Belarusian exports to Russia have increased by about USD 8.5 bn over the past two years. Krutoi explained that the Western sanctions against Russia have been a primary driver for expanding Minsk’s exports to the Russian market. Moscow has reportedly also urged Minsk to participate in Russian aircraft industry programmes; these requests come amid growing shortages of aviation spare parts caused by Western sanctions, which have dramatically increased aircraft malfunctions (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 22 January 2024). Krutoi’s statements follow a meeting between Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on 27 January to discuss economic and political co-operation. Ultimately, we assess that increasing economic integration between the two countries will create more opportunities for the Russian industrial complex to mitigate the impact of sanctions, allowing Moscow to meet its ongoing military needs for the war in Ukraine. (Source: Sibylline)

16 Feb 24. Harris Affirms U.S. Commitment to Stand With Allies, Lead in ‘Unsettled Times.’ Vice President Kamala Harris today underscored the critical role of U.S. leadership as world leaders confront global conflicts and threats to international peace and stability.

Speaking at this year’s Munich Security Conference in Germany, Harris noted Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and increased instability and conflict in the Middle East.

She also highlighted competition with China, the emergence of transformative technology, and the threat that the climate crisis will compound the risk to international order.

“In these unsettled times, it is clear America cannot retreat,” Harris said. “America must stand strong for democracy. We must stand in defense of international rules and norms. And we must stand with our allies.”

Harris said her address came amid questions about the future of America’s role as a global leader.

“These are questions that the American people must also ask ourselves: whether it is in America’s interest to fight for democracy or to accept the rise of dictators and whether it is in America’s interest to continue to work lockstep with our allies and partners or go it alone,” she said.

The United States’ response to those questions reverberates far beyond its shores, affecting not only the American people, but people throughout the world, the vice president said.

“As President Biden and I have made clear over the past three years, we are committed to global engagement, to international rules and norms, to democratic values at home and abroad, and to with our allies and partners in pursuit of shared goals,” Harris said.

That commitment to global engagement has translated to significant investments in building alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific — a key component of the United States’ strategy to manage competition with China.

In the Middle East, the U.S. has led international efforts to realize an end to the conflict in Israel and humanitarian crisis in Gaza following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas terrorists.

The U.S. has also led efforts to counter regional aggression from Iran and its proxies and created an international maritime task force to counter attacks by Houthi rebels on global shipping in the Red Sea.

U.S. leadership has also been critical in Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s ongoing invasion, which will soon enter its third year.

Earlier this week, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III affirmed the United States’ unwavering resolve as he kicked off the 19th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group – a U.S.-led coalition of nearly 50 countries united to support Ukraine’s short- and long-term battlefield needs.

“When Putin launched his unjust and unprovoked war of choice, he was betting that Ukraine would fold,” Austin said as he led the virtual meeting of the UDCG from Washington. “But he couldn’t have been more wrong.”

The secretary praised the courage and skill with which Ukraine has fought back against Russia’s full-scale invasion and the determination of international partners who have rallied in support of Ukraine’s defenders.

“The countries of this contact group, almost two years later, are still united in common purpose,” Austin said. “The Kremlin keeps on betting that we will all lose interest in Ukraine and that our support will flicker and fade, but I am more determined than ever.

“This contact group remains resolute, undaunted and firm,” he said.

In her address in Munich, Harris also affirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO under the Biden administration, an alliance she said is now “larger, more effective and more unified than ever before.”

Harris said the U.S. must continue to build on its progress and stand side by side with allies against tyranny and in defense of democracy.

“That is what represents the ideals of America,” Harris said. “And the American people know that is what makes us strong. The American people will meet this moment, and America will continue to lead.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

16 Feb 24. Official Says Without U.S. Funding, Ukraine’s Defense Will Likely Collapse. Despite generous military support for Ukraine by allies and partners, unless Congress passes the Defense Department’s supplemental funding request, Ukraine will not be able to defend itself against Russian aggression, a senior defense official told the news media today.

“If Ukraine fails because we fail to provide them with security assistance, the costs are high for Europe, for the United States, and for the world — higher than the cost of security assistance today,” the official said.

Without the supplemental funding, DOD also faces resource gaps in support for its own forces deployed in Europe, the official added.

The official said the lack of a supplemental is already impacting Ukraine.

In the strategic city of Avdiivka in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are running short of ammunition and other critical supplies, and the city is at risk of soon falling into Russian hands, the official said.

“We see this as something that could be the harbinger of what is to come if we do not get this supplemental funding—because without supplemental funding, not only can we not resupply those forces that are bravely trying to defend Avdiivka, we also will find many other locations along the forward line of troops that will be running low on supplies of critical ammunition,” the official said.

Also, without supplemental funding, Ukraine will not have adequate air defense interceptors to defend its cities, critical infrastructure, and forward line of troops against the continual barrage of Russian missiles, the official said.

The official also said that besides Avdiivka, other areas will also fall as Ukrainian forces run out of ammunition and air-defense capabilities.

Regarding the latest Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, which took place Wednesday and was led virtually by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, the official said DOD was impressed by support packages pledged for Ukraine.

“At this point, the United States is not the top donor to Ukraine when it comes to security assistance or economic assistance, for that matter. When you look at security assistance, we’re actually the sixteenth in the world when it comes to percentage of ,” the official said.

Some of the leading contributors include Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom, the official said.

Finally, the official mentioned the cost of the war to Russia.

Russia has probably spent up to $211bn in direct financial outlays to equip, deploy, maintain and sustain operations in Ukraine. In terms of arms sales, the Ukraine war has cost Russia more than $10bn in canceled or postponed arm sales. And, in terms of lost economic growth, the war has cost Russia $1.3trn in previously anticipated economic growth through 2026, the official said.

DOD officials estimate at least 315,000 Russian forces have been either killed or wounded in the fight. Ukrainian forces have sunk, destroyed or damaged at least 20 medium-to-large Russian navy vessels, the official said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

16 Feb 24. Ukraine war has cost Russia up to $211bn, Pentagon says.

Almost two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Pentagon shared new figures on the toll that war has had on Moscow.

Military operations in Ukraine have cost Russia up to $211bn and the country has lost $10 billion in canceled or paused arms sales. At least 20 medium to large Russian naval vessels have been sunk in the Black Sea and 315,000 Russian soldiers have either been killed or wounded, according to U.S. Department of Defense data.

These figures, shared by a senior defense official speaking with reporters on the condition of anonymity, are in part an attempt for the Pentagon to show its work on the effect of Ukraine aid. U.S. support for Kyiv helps a democratic partner defend itself, while at the same time degrading America’s second-leading adversary in Russia. The Pentagon’s estimates show how deep those costs have been.

And yet, the official described the current state of the war as precarious for Ukraine, not Russia.

After months of defending the eastern city of Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces there are on the brink of collapse. Taking the city would mark Russia’s largest advance since it seized Bakhmut last year. The flagging front lines are in large part a product of ammunition shortages, which have grown more acute since the Pentagon ran out of money for Ukraine aid late last year, the official said — warning that the problems in Avdiivka may not stop there.

“We see this as something that could be the harbinger of what is to come if we do not get this supplemental funding,” the official said, referencing $60bn in further aid the White House requested last year.

A version of that deal passed the Senate on bipartisan lines this week but has little chance of success in the House, where Republican Speaker Mike Johnson has said he won’t put it up for a vote.

In the interim, the official said, Ukrainian forces are running out of ammunition and air defense interceptors, which help defend the country’s critical infrastructure from Russian attacks.

The U.S. is not the only country sending military support to Ukraine. This week marked the 19th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a set of countries that have helped bolster Kyiv’s self defense over the last two years. Canada pledged $60m to support Ukraine’s air force and Germany announced a $1.2bn air defense and artillery package.

Still, it was notably the second straight meeting in which the U.S. provided no aid of its own, a streak that will continue if the supplemental does not pass in Congress.

“Our military is always working to be as prepared as possible, but we do absolutely need this supplemental funding,” the official said. “There is no substitute for it.” (Source: Defense News)

16 Feb 24. France pledges to send up to 3bn eur in military aid to Ukraine this year – Elysee. France and Ukraine on Friday signed a bilateral security agreement including pledges from Paris to deliver more arms, train soldiers and send up to 3bn euros in military aid to Kivy this year to help the country in its war against Russia, the Elysee said. The French presidency said the accord, signed by Emmanuel Macron and his counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenksiy, includes the pledge by France to provide “up to” 3bn euros ($3.24bn) in additional military support to Ukraine in 2024. In the agreement, which followed similar deals Kiyv has reached with Britain and Germany, France also pledges to provide more military equipment, in particular for air defence. France, alongside other partners, will also help Ukraine make its defence capacities “increasingly interoperable with NATO”, the Elysee said, adding: “This includes the development of a modern defence sector in Ukraine and a path to a future in NATO.” (Source: Reuters)

17 Feb 24. Ukrainian troops withdraw from Avdiivka as ammunition shortage bites.

Summary

Ukraine forced to abandon eastern bastion of Avdiivka
Kyiv facing critical shortages of artillery rounds
Army chief says withdrawal aims to prevent encirclement
Move paves way to Russia’s biggest gains since May 2023

Ukrainian troops withdrew from the devastated eastern town of Avdiivka, Ukraine’s new army chief said in the early hours of Saturday, paving the way for Russia’s biggest advance since May 2023 when it captured the city of Bakhmut.

The withdrawal, announced as Ukraine faces acute shortages of ammunition with U.S. military aid delayed for months in Congress, aimed to save troops from being fully surrounded by Russian forces after months of fierce fighting, Kyiv said.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who took the helm of the Ukrainian military in a major shakeup last week, said Ukrainian forces had moved back to more secure positions outside the town that had a pre-war population of 32,000.

“I decided to withdraw our units from the town and move to defence from more favourable lines in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen,” he was quoted as saying in an armed forces statement.

The loss of the town nearly two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion may give President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a stronger case to make to the West for more urgent military aid as he addresses the Munich Security Conference on Saturday morning.

U.S. President Joe Biden had said on Thursday that Avdiivka risked falling to Russian forces because of ammunition shortages following months of Republican congressional opposition to a new U.S. military aid package for Kyiv.

Capturing Avdiivka is key to Russia’s aim of securing full control of the two provinces that make up the industrial Donbas region, and could hand President Vladimir Putin a battlefield victory as he seeks re-election next month.

Avdiivka has borne the brunt of mounting offensive pressure by Russian forces in the east as wavering Western military aid has compounded the fatigue of troops fighting for almost two years.

“We are taking measures to stabilize the situation and maintain our positions,” Syrskyi said.

There was no immediate comment about the withdrawal from the Russian Defence Ministry, Zelenskiy or the Ukrainian defence minister.

OUTGUNNED AND OUTNUMBERED

Russia stepped up its offensive on Avdiivka in October and Ukraine’s positions had been looking increasingly fraught for weeks.

The Third Assault Brigade, a prominent Ukrainian infantry assault unit, was rushed into the town to help reinforce troops this week as other Ukrainian forces pulled back from the southeast of the town.

The unit described the fighting as “hell” and said on social media that Ukrainian defenders had been outnumbered by Russian forces by a ratio of about six to 100 in some places.

Russia has not given details of its losses in the brutal fighting for the town, but Ukrainian officials and Western military analysts say its advances have come at a staggering cost in terms of personnel and armoured vehicles.

The town, where fewer than 1,000 residents are now left, lies just north of the Russian-held bastion of Donetsk which Ukraine lost control of in 2014 when Moscow’s proxies began an uprising. Avdiivka has a vast coking plant that has stopped functioning during the war.

(Source: Reuters)

16 Feb 24. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said long-term defence agreements being struck with Germany and France heralded a “new security architecture for Ukraine and new opportunities”. Zelenskyy signed a bilateral defence accord with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on Friday. Scholz described the pledge as a “historic step” and cast support for Ukraine as key to ensuring a “peaceful European order” in the future. Under the agreement Germany will provide military aid worth €7.1bn in 2024. It will lead an effort by allies to equip Ukraine with modern air defences while contributing to other “coalitions” providing it with armour, artillery, IT and drones. Berlin also announced an additional military aid package worth €1.13bn over four years, including 18 self-propelled howitzers, 18 other howitzers, a SkyNex air defence system and 100 interceptors for the IRIS-T air defence system. The Ukrainian leader is expected in Paris on Friday evening to meet President Emmanuel Macron and sign a similar long-term security agreement with France. Britain’s prime minister Rishi Sunak last month agreed a 10-year accord with Kyiv, including £2.5bn in military aid this year and a pledge to build up the Ukrainian navy. Ukrainian officials say agreements are also close to completion with Canada, Italy and the Netherlands. In all, more than 30 countries have said they would sign such agreements with Ukraine. The security commitments stop short of mutual defence guarantees but are intended to build up Ukraine’s military capabilities over several years while sending a message to Moscow of western resolve in support of Kyiv, two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion. The accords are also intended as a bridge to Ukraine’s eventual accession to Nato. However, the message of western solidarity has been undercut by doubts over further US military assistance for Ukraine, which is being held up by sceptical Republicans in the House of Representatives, and by delays to some EU funding. The EU last month agreed a four-year €50bn aid plan for general budgetary support, but a scheme to top up an EU fund used to buy arms for Kyiv by €5bn has been held up by differences among member states. A $60bn US aid package proposed by the White House for Ukraine, one-third of it military, is stuck in Congress. US House speaker Mike Johnson, an ally of Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump, on Thursday adjourned the house for a recess of almost two weeks without putting the Senate-approved aid package for Ukraine to a vote. Despite their latest pledges, the Europeans are unable to make up for the shortfall in US supplies of artillery ammunition and air defence interceptors this year. France has come under scrutiny for supposedly providing less weaponry to Ukraine than other European allies such as Germany and the UK. Data collected by the Kiel Institute in Germany puts France in 14th place globally, with military assistance since February 2022 worth only €600mn, while Germany has given €17.7bn and the UK €9.1bn. French officials have disputed those figures, which they say dramatically undercounts their contribution. On Friday, France released a new list of the materiel it has given to Ukraine, including 30 Caesar howitzers and around 100 long-range Scalp missiles, although it did not put a value on the equipment. The officials also said France had trained around 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers and would expand training to including naval and air activities this year. Writing in Le Monde, French foreign minister Stéphane Séjourné said: “The efforts today in favour of Ukraine are nothing compared with those we would have to deploy against a Russia that considered itself victorious.” (Source: FT.com)

16 Feb 24. Russia has lost more than 400,000 soldiers to death or injury in its continuing war against Ukraine, according to Kyiv’s approximations.

The figure, released by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence in its daily update this morning, suggests a staggering number of Russian casualties in the two years since Vladimir Putin launched the invasion on February 24, 2022.

By comparison, around 15,000 Soviet troops were killed and 53,000 injured in Afghanistan during the Soviet-Afghan war, which lasted from nine years – from 1979 to 1989. This therefore suggests that Russian casualties in Ukraine are around six times greater than those suffered by the Soviets in less than a quarter of the time.

The figure also represents the Ukrainian army’s fierce defence on its homeland against an invading force that many expected would sweep to a swift victory.

Instead, Ukraine’s forces were able to repel Moscow’s armies from the gates of Kyiv and push them back east, where the war is now in a stalemate and being fought along hundreds of miles of frontlines fortified by trenches and minefields.

Ukraine’s Minister of Defence also reported that between February 24 2022 and February 16 2024, Russia has lost approximately 6,465 tanks, 12,129 armoured combat vehicles, 9,641 artillery units, and 984 multiple launch rocket systems.

The update also estimates Russia has lost 671 air defence systems, 332 warplanes, 325 helicopters, 7,408 drones, 1,895 cruise missiles, 25 warships, 1 submarine, 12,716 motor vehicles and fuel tankers, and 1,528 units of special equipment.

While MailOnline and other outlets are unable to verify Ukraine’s figures, heavy Russian losses have been well documented.

Even a US estimate declassified in December 2023 put Russian casualties at around 315,000 after 22 months of war.

What’s more, according to the Oryx military blog, which has been tracking Russian losses since the war broke out, Russia has seen more than 14,000 vehicles destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured.

While this figure is lower than Ukraine’s overall estimate, the blog bases its numbers on visual confirmations. In other words, every loss is confirmed by a photo or video from the battlefield confirming the loss of a piece of Russian military hardware.

This, therefore, can be viewed as a minimum figure.

Military analysts have put Russian losses down to a number of factors, including the tactics used by Russian commanders.

A number of key battles have seen Moscow’s commanders use ‘human wave’ tactics, in which Russian soldiers are sent forward in vast numbers to crash against Ukrainian defences in an effort to establish weak points.

The Battle of Bakhmut, for example, was likened to a ‘First World War meat grinder’ in which wave after wave of Russian soldiers were gunned down.

While Russia did eventually succeed in seizing the city – suffering staggering losses in the process – analysts questioned the tactical importance of Bakhmut.

Similar scenes have been described in Russia’s assault on Avdiivka, another industrial city in the Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

Despite Russia’s intense effort to capture the city at the expense of thousands of its soldiers, Ukraine continues to hold out, although Kyiv, too, has suffered heavy losses.

Questions have also been raised about the quality of Russia’s forces and equipment.

Particularly in the early stages of the war, Russia deployed large Brigades and used tactics that were likened to those used by the Soviets in a bygone era.

Lumbering Russian columns of armoured vehicles were picked off by Ukraine’s more mobile units armed with western anti-tank launchers and drones.

Much of the equipment Russia has been using is also Soviet in origin.

And there is evidence of Russia’s most elite spetsnaz units being sent into direct combat – rather than carrying out the clandestine, secretive special missions they were trained for – resulting in a decimation of their ranks.

Ukraine, meanwhile, employed more modern tactics imparted on Kyiv’s military by the West, allowing its smaller units to be more mobile.

Kyiv deployed more modern equipment and pioneered the use of small drones to both scout out Russian positions and drop small explosives on enemy soldiers and vehicles – something Putin’s forces struggled to defence against.

It is believed that Russia in some sectors has since caught up with such tactics, and are now also using drones to target Ukrainian trenches and vehicles. (Source: Daily Mail)

16 Feb 24. Avdiivka ‘at risk of falling’ because of shell shortage. The embattled eastern city of Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian hands because Ukraine lacks the shells needed to defend it, Washington has warned.

“Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian control. In very large part, this is happening because Ukrainian forces on the ground are running out of artillery ammunition,” said John Kirby, a US National Security Council spokesperson.

”Fierce battles” are raging in the city as Russia steps up its attacks and Ukraine prepares new positions around the industrial hub, the Ukrainian military said.

”Our troops are using all available forces and means to restrain the enemy,” said Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, a Ukrainian general in the east.

Volodymyr Zelensky has said Kyiv will do “everything” to save lives in the symbolic city, which is now surrounded on three sides by Russian forces. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

13 Feb 24. Russia buying Starlink from ‘Arab countries’, Ukraine claims. Russian forces are acquiring Starlink terminals from “Arab countries” for use on the front line, according to the Ukrainian military.

On Tuesday, Kyiv’s military intelligence agency (HUR) released what it said was intercepted audio of two Russian soldiers discussing the purchase of the satellite internet units produced by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

The agency wrote on Telegram: “The aggressor state, Russia, is purchasing communications equipment, including Starlink satellite internet terminals, for use in the war in Arab countries.”

Media outlets in Ukraine reported that Russian forces may have used intermediaries in Dubai to obtain the distinctive square-shaped satellite terminals.

The evidence published by HUR appears to be the first official confirmation of the methods used by Russians to circumvent swathes of Western sanctions preventing Moscow from obtaining technologies with military application.

In the audio clip released by the Ukrainian intelligence agency, two Russian soldiers are allegedly discussing their poor internet connections.

“Let me order you a Starlink? And you will have a f—ing good connection. Dude, do you need a Starlink,” one says.

The Russian soldier adds: “Then you need 200,000 rubles (£1,728). Do you know Oboz? You go up to him, and he’ll order it for you. The Arabs bring everything to us: wires, wifi, routers.”

The Telegraph could not independently verify the claims. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

15 Feb 24. UK to supply thousands of drones as co-leader of major international capability coalition for Ukraine. The UK and Latvia will jointly lead a capability coalition, which will see thousands of drones supplied to Ukraine, including first-person view (FPV) drones, which have proven highly effective on the battlefield.

As part of the coalition, the UK will scale up and streamline the West’s provision of “first person view” (FPV) drones to Ukraine. FPV drones have proven highly effective on the battlefield since Russia’s full-scale invasion, providing their operators with situational awareness to target enemy positions, armoured vehicles, and ships with explosive ordnance.

By creating a competition to produce these drones at scale and at an affordable price point, the UK will leverage the strength of Western industry. This is the first project to be launched from the £200 m drone package announced by the Prime Minister in January this year. It will see the UK order thousands of FPV drones for Ukraine, including from UK manufacturers, providing a boost to the industry and delivering on the Prime Minister’s priority to grow the economy.

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said:

The UK continues to do all we can to give Ukraine what it needs – upping our aid to £2.5bn this year and committing £200m to manufacture drones, making us Ukraine’s largest drone supplier.

Today, we’re going even further. I’m proud to announce that the UK and Latvia will co-lead an international coalition to build Ukraine’s vital drone capabilities. Together, we will give Ukraine the capabilities it needs to defend itself and win this war, to ensure that Putin fails in his illegal and barbaric ambitions.

The Defence Secretary also meets his NATO counterparts today to review progress on support for Ukraine, NATO’s new warfighting plans, ramping up defence production capacity and preparations for the NATO Summit in Washington in July, where leaders will mark the Alliance’s 75th anniversary.

The UK continues to play a leading role in NATO, contributing to all operations and missions, committing almost all our Armed Forces under the NATO Force Model, and offering a full spectrum of capabilities.

In the margins of the NATO ministerial, the Defence Secretary will bring together his counterparts from 13 NATO Allies* and Sweden to sign an agreement on two new multinational procurement initiatives focusing on munitions and missiles. Spearheaded by the UK, these initiatives aim to increase defence industrial capacity across the Euro-Atlantic area, replenish stockpiles at pace and continue support to Ukraine. This multinational approach offers a scalable solution for nations to jointly procure more of the missile and munition types that NATO and Ukraine need.

The UK is also working with NATO Allies Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and the United States to deliver priority air defence equipment to Ukraine. This partnership, which Canada recently joined, has so far delivered hundreds of short and medium air defence missiles and systems to keep Ukraine’s cities safe from Russian bombardment.

Tomorrow, the Defence Secretary will participate in the Munich Security Conference and meet international counterparts to discuss Euro-Atlantic security issues, including support for Ukraine.

The UK is committed to standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes and has committed to provide £2.5 bn in military aid to Ukraine in 2024/25, an increase of £200 m on the previous two years.

Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, The Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Romania and Türkiye.

(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

15 Feb 24. French President Emmanuel Macron will sign a bilateral security agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday in Paris as part of a trip that will also go through Germany, the French presidency said in a statement. It did not release specific details about the agreement, to be signed at the Elysee presidential palace.

Macron said earlier this year that France was negotiating a bilateral deal on the model the one Ukraine recently agreed with the United Kingdom, which covers 10 years. This will be the third visit by Zelenskyy to Paris since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago, following those in February and May 2023, the statement said.

The French presidency said the visit will be an opportunity for Macron “to reaffirm France’s determination to continue to provide unwavering support to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, over the long term and with all its partners.”

Both leaders will discuss the situation on the front line, Ukraine’s military, economic and humanitarian needs, as well as negotiations on the country’s efforts to join the European Union, which France fully supports, the statement said.

Ukraine’s presidential office on Thursday said Zelenskyy will visit Germany, where he will meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and France on Friday.

He will also participate the next day to the Munich Security Conference and will hold bilateral meetings on its sideline, including with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, Czech President Petr Pavel, Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and the Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/AP)

14 Feb 24. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Statement on the 19th Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III provided the following statement today on the 19th Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting: The Ukraine Defense Contact Group has just wrapped up its 19th meeting—and another highly successful one. We convened virtually, and I look forward to soon convening another session of this Contact Group in person.

Ever since our first meeting in Ramstein, it has been inspiring to see some 50 of our trusted allies and partners worldwide rally together to support the embattled democracy of Ukraine. This broad, steady, and determined coalition is a stark contrast to Putin’s increasingly self-isolated Russia—left alone with the likes of Iran and North Korea.

America’s unparalleled network of allies and partners remains a strategic asset that no rival can match. America’s allies extend our strength, magnify our power, and deepen our security.

Later this month, we’ll mark two years since the Kremlin launched its reckless war of imperial aggression against Ukraine. When Putin ordered his unprovoked and indefensible invasion, he assumed that Ukraine’s forces would collapse—and that Ukraine’s friends would cower.

But Ukraine’s troops have fought like lions, and countries of conscience from around the world have raced to get Ukraine’s back. That has made a historic difference on the battlefield, enabling Ukraine’s brave defenders to retake more than half of the land grabbed by the Kremlin since its all-out invasion on February 24, 2022.

Ukraine’s struggle matters profoundly for global security. We support Ukraine’s self-defense because it is the right thing to do—and because it is crucial to American and global security.

Putin’s inexcusable war of choice poses a direct threat to security and stability in Europe and beyond. If we falter, if we give Putin reason to doubt our collective determination, if we meet Putin’s naked aggression with retreat instead of resolve—we will only embolden him and other would-be aggressors worldwide. That will invite more turmoil and tyranny, in Europe and far beyond.

So we will not allow Putin to prevail. Neither will the allies and partners who stood together again today, shoulder to shoulder, united by both pragmatism and principle.

This historic, U.S.-led coalition of some 50 countries from around the globe has committed more than $85bn in security assistance to Ukraine since Putin began his appalling all-out invasion in February 2022. In fact, as a percentage of GDP, more than a dozen of our allies contribute more to Ukraine’s self-defense than the United States.

Today, the entire Contact Group focused on Ukraine’s urgent needs on the battlefield—and to helping prepare the Ukrainian future force that can deter and defeat Russian aggression over the long haul.

Together, we are deepening our commitment to Ukraine by leading what we call “capability coalitions.” And they have hit the ground running. In just a few months, thanks to exemplary leadership and participation from our fellow Contact Group members, we have set up eight capability coalitions. That will help us continue to meet and anticipate Ukraine’s battlefield needs, and lay the foundation for Ukraine’s long-term security.

The United States is proud to co-lead two of these capability coalitions. Together with Denmark and the Netherlands, we are leading the coalition helping Ukraine meet its urgent needs for air-force capabilities. We are also working with our French allies to co-lead the capability coalition on artillery.

The United States is deeply grateful to the other friends that have stepped up to lead the other capability coalitions: Denmark and the Netherlands; Germany and France; the United Kingdom and Norway; Poland and Estonia; and Luxembourg, Latvia, and Lithuania. The capability coalitions are the sturdy, flexible structure to ensure that we can meet Ukraine’s requirements over the long haul.

The outcome of Ukraine’s struggle will help determine the trajectory of security in the 21st century. We understand the stakes—and we understand the dangers of retreat.

Almost two years into Putin’s bloody and dishonorable invasion, the United States and our trusted allies and partners continue to stand firmly with the Ukrainian people and with the brave Ukrainian troops fighting for their country’s freedom. And we continue to stand strong for the shared security that comes from an open world of rules, rights, and responsibilities. (Source: U.S. DoD)

15 Feb 24. Norway trains Ukrainian marines. Following Ukraine’s asymmetric USV tactics in the Black Sea, Norway will begin training them in small boat operations for at least a year. Training of Ukrainian Marines in Oslo. Credit: Norwegian Armed Forces.

The Norwegian Ministry of Defence has announced that it will train Ukrainian marines specialised in small boat operations in the spring for at least a year.

Bjørn Arild Gram, Norway’s Defence Minister, noted that “the Norwegian Army has already developed a close relationship with Ukrainian marines through training in Norway.”

In addition, the Government pledged a donation of rubber boats and equipment worth Nkr60m ($5.67m) toward Ukraine’s amphibious operations.

This latest training in Norway comes under the nation’s joint Maritime Capability Coalition with the UK in which both nations pledged to transfer maritime systems and expertise to Ukraine in December 2023. As part of coalition efforts, the UK offered two Royal Navy mine-hunters and offshore raiding craft.

Norway’s training comes after the Royal Navy’s efforts to train them in August 2023. “All the way through, our British instructors have been beside us, showing us how to move and how to work together in a small team,” one Ukrainian marine stated at the time.

Approximately 900 Ukrainian marines completed the course, which included instruction in the use of mortars, Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapons (NLAW) and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, drones for reconnaissance, and explosive demolition of obstacles such as Dragon’s Teeth anti-vehicle fortifications.

Ukrainian marines have employed similar methods in the past few weeks, which have seen demonstrable success against Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

Recent USV swarm approach

At the beginning of February 2024, Ukrainian forces boasted its destruction of the Russian corvette Ivanovets, and this week claimed the destruction of Russia’s large amphibious ship, Caesar Kunikov. (Source: naval-technology.com)

14 Feb 24. Ukrainian drone strike sets Russian oil depot on fire. An oil depot in Russia’s Kursk region is on fire after being hit by a Ukrainian drone strike, the local governor has said. The attack, which Russian media reports was carried out by two drones, resulted in no casualties, said Roman Starovoit, the local governor.

Ukraine has repeatedly used drone attacks to target Russian energy infrastructure in recent months, most recently striking two oil refineries in Russia’s Krasnodar region last week.

As well as threatening Russia’s energy security, the strikes also require a “significant diversion of resources” from Russia, Meduza reported, as air defence systems must either be produced or taken from the front line to defend the facilities. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

14 Feb 24. Austin Affirms U.S.-Led Coalition Stands With Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III affirmed today the unwavering resolve among the U.S. and its partners in support of Ukraine.

Marking two years since Russia’s unprovoked invasion, Austin said the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group continues to stand united in common purpose to support Ukraine’s short- and long-term battlefield needs.

“When Putin launched his unjust and unprovoked war of choice, he was betting that Ukraine would fold,” Austin said as he kicked off a virtual meeting of the UDCG from Washington. “But he couldn’t have been more wrong.”

“The countries of this contact group, almost two years later, are still united in common purpose,” Austin said. “The Kremlin keeps on betting that we will all lose interest in Ukraine, and that our support will flicker and fade, but I am more determined than ever.

“This contact group remains resolute, undaunted and firm,” he said.

Today’s meeting marked the 19th iteration of the UDCG, a U.S.-led coalition comprising nearly 50 countries.

It comes amid continuing negotiations on Capitol Hill over President Joe Biden’s request to Congress to continue critical funding for military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

Earlier this week, the Senate approved a supplemental funding measure which would include additional funds for Ukraine security assistance in addition to providing urgent support for Israel following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas terrorists along with humanitarian support for Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

The measure also provides additional resources for U.S. Central Command to deter attacks by Iranian-backed militia groups and protect vessels operating in the Red Sea from attacks by Houthi rebels.

In a statement yesterday, Austin applauded the Senate passage and urged the House to pass the measure.

“The need for this supplemental may be most urgently felt in Ukraine,” Austin said. “Top Ukrainian defense officials have already warned us that their units no longer have the stores of ammunition that they need to hold off Putin’s invading forces.”

In his remarks ahead of the UDCG, Austin further emphasized the imperative to continue to support Ukraine, warning that the outcome of the fight against Russia’s aggression will define global security for decades.

“For people of principle and governments of conscience, standing aside while Ukraine fights for its very existence is not an option,” he said. “Ukraine will not surrender, and neither will we.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

14 Feb 24. Russia trading quality for quantity in its replenishment as tank losses stack up. More than 3,000 Russian main battle tanks have been destroyed in Ukraine with Moscow using stored kit to replace losses, according to a new study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

The IISS, an authority on global security, political risk and military conflict, said Russia had “lost around as many as it had” in its active inventory at the time of launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The IISS’s annual Military Balance report said Russia was now trading quality for quantity in its replenishment efforts, whereas Ukraine, which has also suffered heavy losses, can maintain inventories while upgrading quality through Western military donations.

According to the report, even after the loss of so many tanks – including an estimated 1,120 in the past year – Russia still has about twice as many available for combat as Ukraine.

The report therefore poses the question, following Russia’s losses over the past 24 months, how long can Moscow sustain this rate of attrition of its armour?

Henry Boyd, the institute’s senior fellow for military capability, said Russia had been roughly “breaking even” in terms of replacements, and estimated that it had put up to 1,500 more tanks into service in the past year.

But he pointed out that 200 at most were newly built, with the vast majority being refurbished older models.

“Moscow has been able to trade quality for quantity… by pulling thousands of older tanks out of storage at a rate that may, at times, have reached 90 tanks per month,” said the report.

Russia has been bringing reserve tanks out of storage to keep the war machine running, reconditioning them and then sending them to the frontline.

Ben Barry, a land warfare expert at the IISS, told Forces News this process has been working at around 100 tanks per month.

“The equipment that Russia has taken out of these warehouses is at least a generation behind the frontline equipment that they started the war with,” he said.

T-90 tanks that are destroyed are likely to be replaced by T-72s from the 1970s or T-62s from the 1960s.

But Mr Barry emphasised that despite their age “it doesn’t mean that they’re not useful”.

Replenishment systems

The defence industries of both Russia and Ukraine have been targeted to halt progress in their replenishment systems.

Mr Barry said Ukraine was benefiting from more capable equipment donated by the West, but that the scale of these packages had fallen short of what the country had asked for.

Ukraine still relies on Russian artillery rather than Nato models, as there is not enough suitable ammunition, he said.

Russia, meanwhile, has been drawing on state-owned defence industries in Iran and North Korea – both of which are capable of rapid action when called upon.

According to the IISS 2024 report, Russia’s stored inventories mean Moscow could potentially sustain around three more years of heavy losses and replenish tanks from stocks, even if at lower-technical standard, irrespective of its ability to produce new equipment.

The report adds: “It is our assessment, therefore, that Russia will be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another two to three years, and maybe even longer.” (Source: forces.net)

13 Feb 24. French Security Agency Uncovers Extensive Russian Disinformation Network Dubbed ‘Portal Kombat.’ French cybersecurity agency Viginum, established in 2021 to counter foreign digital threats, has exposed a significant Russian disinformation operation designed to manipulate public opinion in the West. Through meticulous analysis conducted between September and December 2023, Viginum uncovered “Portal Kombat,” a network of at least 193 websites disseminating false narratives favorable to the Kremlin. These sites have been particularly active in spreading misleading information about Russia’s military engagement in Ukraine, attempting to justify the invasion as a legitimate operation and criticizing Western nations for their support of Ukraine.

The operation targets a wide range of Western countries, including France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the US. Many of these websites feature “pravda” in their domain names, mirroring tactics used in Russian-language disinformation campaigns within Ukraine.

Viginum’s findings reveal a sophisticated structure behind the network, with sites hosted on IP addresses sharing common characteristics and targeting both Russian and Ukrainian audiences. The content, often copied from pro-Russian social media accounts and press agencies, is distributed through automated systems, including translation services, to maximize dissemination. Additionally, the network exploits controversial topics to sow division within Francophone public discourse, leveraging existing conspiracy theories and skepticism towards political, media, and international organization decisions.

This revelation comes as the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, emphasizes the critical challenge disinformation poses to democratic processes, especially in an election-heavy year for many countries. The French government’s accusations extend beyond the Ukraine conflict, suggesting Russia’s broader intention to influence elections in the UK, the EU, and the US, and to disrupt major events like the Paris Olympics.

French officials attribute the campaign to Russian state entities and affiliates, identifying efforts to spread propaganda through various platforms, including social media and mimicked websites. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

14 Feb 24. Russian Black Sea ship ‘shot down and sunk’ Ukrainian sea drones reportedly “shot down and sunk” a large Russian landing ship off Crimea, according to Ukrainian media. Ukrainska Pravda said Ukrainian intelligence, the GUR, was behind the strike on the Tsezar Kunikov, publishing several videos showing a column of smoke over the sea off the southern coast of Crimea, as well as helicopters flying overhead.

Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko said the targeted ship took part in Russian military operations in Georgia in 2008.

“Russian warships confirm the destruction of a large amphibious ship in the Black Sea…Helicopters are circling above the explosion site,” Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko reported on Telegram.

The reported strike marks the second time in a month that Ukraine has used sea drones to sink a Russian ship, after it downed an Ivanovets in the Black Sea in late January. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

13 Feb 24. Ukraine sends in fresh forces to save Avdiivka. Ukraine is reinforcing the embattled eastern city of Avdiivka with “fresh forces”, a top commander has said.

Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavriia army group, said: “We strengthen the blocking line, set up additional firing positions, and use fresh effective forces. Logistical delivery continues.”

The commander added Russian forces were attempting to capture the Donetsk region city “at any cost and as soon as possible”, in a second battlefield update on the Telegram messaging app.

Ukrainian forces defending against the Russian onslaught face an increasingly perilous situation, with widespread reports of manpower and ammunition shortages.

The decision to continue bolstering Kyiv’s defences of the city, rather than a retreat to a more fortified position, raises the prospect of a repeat of the brutal months-long battle over nearby Bakhmut.

Brig Gen Tarnavskyi’s remarks could hint towards the 3rd brigade, one of Ukraine’s best units, which has been sat in reserve and training on Western weaponry, being brought into the fight for the city.

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

13 Feb 24. Ukraine defence minister, new armed forces chief inform Western generals of Kyiv’s plans. Ukraine Defence Minister Rustem Umerov and newly appointed armed forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi discussed Kyiv’s military plans for 2024 with the supreme commander of the NATO Armed Forces in Europe and the commander of the Security Assistance Group Ukraine, Umerov said on Facebook on Tuesday.

Colonel-General Syrskyi, who has led Ukraine’s ground forces since 2019, was promoted to commander of the armed forces last week as the war with Russia nears its third year. He replaced Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.

Umerov in his Facebook posting said he and Syrskyi had “a clear and substantive conversation” with General Christopher Cavoli and Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto.

“We discussed our military plans for 2024,” Umerov said. “The Commander-in-Chief announced the priorities. Among them are the optimization of the structure of the Armed Forces, improvement of the quality of training of our military, additional staffing of existing brigades and creation of new ones, supplying of regular needs in weapons and equipment.”

The parties also discussed Ukraine’s need for more electronic warfare equipment to combat Russian drones and the importance of rotating the fighters on the front lines, Umerov said without providing any details.

(Source: Reuters)

13 Feb 24. First Successful Deployment of U.S. VAMPIRE Anti-Drone System in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have deployed the VAMPIRE (Vehicle Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment) anti-drone system, supplied by the United States, to intercept and destroy a Russian Shahed drone over the Odessa Region. This incident represents the first combat use of the VAMPIRE system against enemy UAVs.

The VAMPIRE system, developed by L3Harris Technologies, is designed to offer a versatile and cost-effective solution to the rising threat posed by unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Utilizing the 70mm Zuni rockets equipped with laser guidance, the system provides precision targeting capabilities, crucial for countering the inexpensive yet potentially devastating drones used by both Ukraine and Russia. These drones have been employed to destroy high-value targets such as tanks, air defenses, and infantry units, underscoring the strategic value of advanced C-UAS platforms like VAMPIRE.

L3Harris’ VAMPIRE integrates the WESCAM MX™-10 RSTA targeting sensor with a weapons station, enabling operators to quickly and accurately engage aerial targets. The system employs the Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System (APKWS) rocket, chosen for its affordability, accuracy, and reduced collateral damage risk. This system’s adaptability allows for installation on a variety of vehicles, providing Ukrainian forces with a mobile and effective countermeasure against enemy drones. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

13 Feb 24. Ukraine Clones Russia’s Lancet Kamikaze Drone. Ukraine has announced plans to start mass production of loitering munitions, which will look, for all intents and purposes, like a clone of the Lancet kamikaze drone. The head of the Ministry of Statistics Mykhailo Fedorov said that the attack drone is capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 40km.

Ukraine has a large number of different drones with a range of up to 20km, but at night it is quite difficult to find a target within a range of 20km. But now the Ukrainian Defense Forces need to destroy targets at ranges up to 40km. It took half a year for the defense-industrial complex of Ukraine to develop the market in this direction.

” There are several companies on our radar now, and we are testing the products ,” Mykhailo Fedorov said.

According to him, the first contracts are a matter of weeks, and they will go to the front soon after that.

” There are already combat applications, but they are still units. It is difficult to name specific dates, but within two months, information will begin to appear in the Russian public – how their tanks are on fire ,” Fedorov said.

In August of last year, the defense-industrial complex presented a new barrage ammunition “Perun”.

Even then, the Ukrainian development was very similar to the Russian barrage munition “Lancet”. It was noted that the length of “Perun” is 1365 mm, width 1370 mm and 800 mm. “Perun” is equipped with a double cross-shaped wing, which provides the necessary lifting power while simultaneously reducing its dimensions. (Source: UAS VISION/Militarnyi)

13 Feb 24. Russia builds 19-mile long ‘tsar train’ defence out of old railcars. Makeshift barricade of 2,000 carriages in Donetsk aims to hamper Ukraine counterattack. Russian forces have constructed a nearly 20-mile barricade made of old train carriages in eastern Ukraine, thought to be a defensive fortification designed to slow any Ukrainian counterattack.

Dubbed the “tsar train” online, satellite images show thousands of freight cars placed in a chain between Olenivka and Volnovakha in the Donetsk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The barricade is believed to comprise 2,100 railcars, mainly rolling stock taken from other occupied territory in Ukraine, according to military Telegram channel Deep State.

Russian forces reportedly began creating the makeshift defensive line in July, soon after Ukraine launched its counter-offensive, according to a Ukrainian source cited by the think tank.

The source “suggested that Russian forces intend to use the train as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults”, ISW said, before adding a caveat: “The Russians could have assembled the train for other purposes as well.”

The “tsar train” is a little under four miles from the current frontline, according to ISW.

“This is a very specific engineering structure, the effectiveness of which is difficult to assess,” a post on Deep State read.

“The idea is clear – an obstacle to the advancement of the Defence Forces.

“It can be considered a separate line of defence, because it is extremely difficult to damage, move or blow up a 30km mass of metal.

“The movement of equipment through such an obstacle without breaking through the corridor is impossible.”

The railcars used to construct the defensive structure were stolen from Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, the blogger added.

Ukraine’s advances in the region stalled in the autumn, and its exhausted troops have been pushed back as Moscow makes inroads.

Russia seized the Donetsk town of Marinka in December, which was Kyiv’s first major territorial loss in months, and is now advancing on Avdiivka.

The city was seen as Ukraine’s “eastern fortress” but has been worn down by repeated assaults as its supply lines are severed.

Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, a senior Ukrainian commander, pledged on Sunday to reinforce the city with fresh troops, amid reports of manpower and ammunition shortages.

The decision to dig in, rather than retreat to a more fortified position, raises the prospect of a repeat of the brutal months-long battle over nearby Bakhmut.

Russian defences were responsible for exhausting Ukraine’s push in June to regain territory seized in the early part of the war.

Forces attempted to punch through the “Surovikin Line” – an 81-mile system of trenches, anti-tank ditches and minefields – in southern and eastern Ukraine. Despite localised successes, the counteroffensive had petered out by November. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

12 Feb 24. Russia uses Zircon hypersonic missile in Ukraine for first time, researchers say. A preliminary analysis concluded that Russia hit Kyiv last week with the hypersonic Zircon missile, its first use in the nearly two-year-old war, the head of a Kyiv research institute said on Monday, presenting a new challenge to Ukraine’s air defences.

Oleksandr Ruvin, director of the Kyiv Scientific-Research Institute for Forensic Examinations, said on his Telegram channel that his institute completed a preliminary analysis of missile fragments from a Russian attack on Feb. 7.

He included a video of alleged missile wreckage showing specific markings. “In this case, we see elements that are characteristic of the 3M22 Zircon missile. Parts and fragments of the engine and steering mechanisms have specific markings,” he wrote.

The Russian defence ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

The Zircon has a range of 1,000 km (625 miles) and travels at nine times the speed of sound, according to Russia. Military analysts have said its hypersonic speed could mean greatly reduced reaction time for air defences and a capability to attack large, deep and hardened targets.

Russia previously said it completed testing of the Zircon missile in June 2022, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the Zircon as part of a new generation of unrivalled arms systems.

If its use in Ukraine is confirmed, the weapon could pose an additional challenge for the embattled country’s air defences, amid uncertainty over future Western military aid.

Russia conducts regular air strikes on Ukraine using an array of different long-range missiles and drones. The Zircon was initially designed as a sea-launched weapon and a ground-launched version was developed later.

Ruvin’s statement did not say whether the weapon had been fired from land or from sea. The markings recovered from the wreckage indicated the weapon had been assembled recently, he said.

The Feb. 7 attack killed at least five people and damaged residential buildings and energy infrastructure, officials said. (Source: Reuters)

12 Feb 24. Trump comments put US and European troops at increased risk, Nato chief says. US and European troops are “at increased risk” following Donald Trump’s comments suggesting he might encourage Russia to attack members of the alliance who do not pay enough to Nato.

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has criticised the former US president for saying he would not protect any Nato member from a Russian attack who failed to meet the alliance’s target of 2% of their GDP.

During a political rally in South Carolina on Saturday, Mr Trump complained about what he called “delinquent” payments by some Nato countries.

He recounted what he said was a past conversation with the head of “a big country” about an attack by Russia on such countries whose contribution to Nato were lagging behind.

‘You gotta pay’

Mr Trump said he told the unnamed leader: “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay.”

The remarks made by the former US president provoked rebukes from the White House, which called them “appalling and unhinged”.

The failure of many of Nato’s 31 members to meet a defence spending target of at least 2% of gross domestic product has been a source of tension with the US, whose armed forces form the core of the alliance’s military power.

Nato estimates have shown that, currently, only 11 members are spending at the target level. This is, however, a bump up from 2022, when just seven allies cleared the spending threshold.

According to alliance calculations in 2023, the UK, the US, Poland, Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Latvia, and Slovakia were the only nations to spend over the 2% target of their gross domestic product on defence.

Germany, Norway and France are among the 19 of its 30 member nations that are spending below the target of 2%

Mr Trump’s lone remaining challenger for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, Governor Nikki Haley, said: “The last thing we ever want to do is side with Russia.”

She told CBS: “Don’t take the side of someone who has gone and invaded a country and half a m people have died or been wounded because of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin” in his war against Ukraine.

Politico reported that Republican Senator Thom Tillis blamed Trump aides for failing to explain to the former president that the US, as a Nato member, is committed to defending any member of the alliance that is attacked.

It also quoted Republican Senator Rand Paul who said Mr Trump’s remarks were a “stupid thing to say”.

Nato ‘ready and able’

In a statement on Sunday, Mr Stoltenberg highlighted that the alliance remains “ready and able to defend all allies” and that any attack “will be met with a united and forceful response”.

He said: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk. I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election, the US will remain a strong and committed Nato ally.”

Lord Peter Ricketts, a diplomat of more than 40 years’ experience, who previously served as the permanent representative to Nato in Brussels, wrote on X: “Not very plausible that the president of a ‘big’ European country would ask him that (or call him sir!).

“Trump seems to think that Nato is like a country club: you pay 2% of your GDP to the US which then provides defence services. Deeply corrosive of trust among Nato allies.”

Not very plausible that the President of a ‘big’ European country would ask him that (or call him Sir!). Trump seems to think that NATO is like a country club: you pay 2% of your GDP to the US which then provides defence services. Deeply corrosive of trust among NATO allies. https://t.co/rJ4TItBWN0

— Peter Ricketts (@LordRickettsP) February 11, 2024

The principle of collective defence is at the heart of the North Atlantic Treaty – Nato’s founding treaty, binding together its 30 member countries.

In 1949, the primary aim for the creation of Nato was to create a pact of mutual assistance in response to the threat that the Soviet Union would seek to extend its control of Eastern Europe to other parts of the continent.

Under Article 5 “the Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all”. (Source: forces.net)

12 Feb 24. Europe’s fears of an isolationist America under a second Trump presidency are becoming reality. Donald Trump has not yet sealed the Republican nomination for this year’s White House race and the presidential vote is many months away, but he is already working to undermine Nato and the security of Washington’s closest allies. On Saturday, Trump said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” if alliance members failed to meet targets of spending 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence. Even by his standards of campaign bombast, it was an extraordinarily reckless statement. With its onslaught against Ukraine, Russia has initiated the most devastating war on European soil since 1945. It poses the biggest threat to the security of the alliance in decades. The US still has tens of thousands of troops stationed in Europe. They are more at risk today than they were on Friday. If Trump is not colluding with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he is undoubtedly serving his interests. Nato’s promise of mutual defence rests on confidence that it will be upheld more than any legal obligation. Trump has shattered that confidence. Even doubling European military expenditure tomorrow would not repair it. Regrettably, a growing number of Republican lawmakers agree with Trump about the limited value of alliances. That should trouble all of America’s allies around the world. It will certainly embolden its enemies. The one admirable thing about Trump’s message was its clarity. It is an unambiguous signal to Europeans that they must start preparing to protect their continent’s security without US involvement. In truth, the alarm has been blaring out for some time. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European governments made sometimes sizeable pledges to ramp up defence spending and refill depleted weapons stockpiles. While encouraging, there are doubts in most countries about how these increases will be sustained over the longer term. Many capitals still appear in denial about the scale of investment needed in technology, in boosting defence industrial capacity and in enlarging their fighting forces as a deterrent to Russian aggression. Europeans have to start thinking the unthinkable: how to plan for war without America. That requires a European pillar within Nato with Europeans able to provide the crucial military assets like heavy lift and intelligence that only the US currently possesses. It could also involve the EU using Nato assets to run missions other than peacekeeping. The EU should also have an expanded role in driving forward joint development and procurement of weapons systems alongside other collaborative projects, perhaps under the auspices of a European commissioner for defence. The UK and other non-EU Nato states need to be closely involved. This is a work of decades. But Europeans must show purpose and resolve now, not least to send a message to the Kremlin. The way to start is by arming Ukraine. This has to be the short-term priority. So far, Europe’s performance has been disappointing, despite the best efforts of Germany and the European Commission in particular. Governments have been too slow to sign contracts and too timid to subsidise expanded production capacity, especially for artillery ammunition. They must make amends quickly. They have to do the same for air defence and drones and share electronic warfare technology with Ukrainian forces. Perhaps such ambitions will win Trump around to Nato’s cause, should he become president again. But Europeans cannot count on this. They must prepare for a new world, in which they take care of their own security. (Source: FT.com)

12 Feb 24. Ukraine to produce thousands of long-range drones in 2024, minister says.

Summary
Mykhailo Fedorov has championed wartime drone sector boom
Production, deliveries rose 120 times in 2023, he says
Deregulation, state venture funds key to trend – Fedorov

Ukraine will produce thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies making drones that can reach Moscow and St Petersburg, Ukraine’s digital minister said.

Mykhailo Fedorov spoke about the wartime drone industry he has championed in a interview in Kyiv in which he revealed new details about the sector, after a spate of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities in recent weeks.

“The category of long-range kamikaze drones is growing, with a range of 300, 500, 700, and 1,000 kilometres. Two years ago, this category did not exist … at all,” he told Reuters.

Fedorov, 33, has been at the heart of Ukraine’s effort to nurture private military startups to innovate and build up the drone industry as the war goes into its third year and Ukraine seeks new ways to fight back against well dug-in Russian forces.

The recent series of strikes on oil facilities, he said, reflected the government’s progress in rapidly deregulating the drone market and increasing funding for it, with the state acting as a venture investor.

Some $2.5 m in grants were allocated to military tech startups via the BRAVE1 initiative set up by the government last year, an amount set to be increased roughly tenfold in 2024, he said.

“We will fight to increase the financing even more,” he added.

In contrast with Russia where drone production is dominated by the state, the vast majority of manufacturers in Ukraine are private. Fedorov said only one of the 10 companies whose drones could fly as far as the regions around Moscow or St Petersburg was a state company.

Since the first year of the full-scale war, Russia has used thousands of Iranian “Shahed” drones that fly towards their target and detonate on impact for long-range strikes.

Ukraine’s production levels and deliveries increased more than 120 times in 2023, according to Fedorov, part of a broader wartime push to develop and produce drones to narrow the gap with Russia’s strike capabilities.

Fedorov said he agreed with an assessment by Ukraine’s military spy chief Kyrylo Budanov that Kyiv had achieved a “certain kind of parity” with Moscow in the production of long-range drones.

“We need to act in an anti-bureaucratic way. This is the essence of a breakthrough in the war of technology. We are going to continue to put our bets on this, to work in this direction. Because technology can really save us,” he said, noting the shortage of artillery rounds Ukrainian troops were facing.

ENDING THE MONOPOLIES

Overall, more than 300,000 drones of different types were contracted last year and more than 100,000 were sent to the front, he said, adding that the figures did not cover volunteer supplies which he said made a “significant contribution”.

“We removed taxes on UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) components, simplified the contracting procedure, and the procedure for decommissioning,” he said.

“In other words, we took all the blockages that private sector companies were facing and addressed them in six months by passing all the necessary laws and resolutions.”

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has set a target for Ukraine this year to produce one million First Person View (FPV) drones, which are cheap to make and weaponised in huge quantities by both sides on the front.

Ukraine’s drone industry relies heavily on components from foreign countries, including China, widely seen as an ally of Russia. Fedorov said there was an effort to localise production of components.

“That’s why I think that if we continue this trend, by the end of this year we will have a lot of companies that have already made more than 50% of their components locally.”

The surge in recent production put such a strain on logistics that changes had to be rapidly made to prevent long delays in deliveries, he said.

“In December alone, drone deliveries were 50 times higher than in the entire 2022. Just imagine, the system was not prepared for that, and I think the logistics did not realize that such volumes were possible.”

The private sector was also held back by a state monopoly on making drone ammunition. Ukraine passed a resolution ending that state monopoly three months ago and later halted a separate one on making artillery rounds and rockets, he said.

“Over the past three months, more than 20 companies have already undergone testing and can now hand over ammunition to the state,” he said.

Ukraine has trained 20,000 drone operators since it launched a programme to provide grants for military training in private schools at the beginning of 2023, he said. There were 20 such schools, he added.

“We pay for every military person who comes to these schools. Now we have a plan to turn this into a larger state program and separately to modernize, update several training centres and make them work at a high level.” (Source: Reuters)

12 Feb 24. Ukraine drone production rockets by 900% in six months – more increases imminent. As the drone war in Ukraine continues to escalate, the beleaguered nation is reacting by exponentially increasing its production of drones – especially first-person view (FPV) devices, according to local media and social media sources.

Ukrainian use of drones is increasing across a wide range of applications ranging from long-distance strategic strikes on Russian military and energy assets to maritime strike on Russian vessels in the Black Sea. They are proving particularly effective in tactical strike at a time when Ukraine’s supplies of conventional artillery munitions are hard pressed to keep pace with consumption.

According to local sources, production has rocketed from 5,000 units per month in the middle of last year to 50,000 per month by year end – with a total of 62 drone types locally manufactured. That is a significant step towards the 83,000 per month that would enable the nation to meet its avowed goal of one m drones per year. If that goal is reached, it will represent an increase in production by a factor of one hundred in just two years.

The same sources report that Ukraine is negotiating contracts for the mass production of FPV drones similar in nature to Russia’s Lancet family. (Source: Reuters)

09 Feb 24. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces Seize Russian Stronghold.

The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported the execution of a special operation codenamed “Hoverla” aimed at seizing a Russian stronghold positioned on a commanding height. The operation was detailed in a report shared on Telegram, emphasizing the strategic importance of the location which had been under Russian control for several months.

The operation involved meticulous planning and preparation, in collaboration with units of the Defense Forces. It commenced with the SSO units advancing under the cover of fire support, electronic warfare (EW), and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This approach facilitated the successful engagement and subsequent expulsion of Russian forces from the stronghold.

During the assault, the Ukrainian forces employed a combination of direct fire, EW to suppress enemy drones, and specialized munitions, including thermobaric grenades and “Bumblebee” flamethrowers. UAV reconnaissance played a crucial role in identifying enemy positions and movements, allowing for targeted assaults.

The operation concluded with the capture of two Russian paratroopers and the full clearance and control of the stronghold by Ukrainian forces.

(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

10 Feb 24. Russia says military drone production ramping up.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in footage published by his ministry on Saturday that the country’s production of military drones had ramped up in the past year, though certain technical issues still needed tackling.

Russia has made extensive use of drones in the course of the almost two year-long military campaign in Ukraine, but has often had to rely on cheap Iranian-made Shahed drones.

“The production capacities that have been created allow us to complete most of the tasks that we are faced with today,” Shoigu said during a tour of drone production facilities in the Volga river region of Udmurtia.

He was shown telling a meeting of officials that issues related to the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in drones and electronic warfare still needed to be resolved.

Moscow has in recent months been signalling that its military industrial complex has stepped up production, as Russia seeks to break months of military deadlock in Ukraine.

Ukrainian commanders have said drones will be vital to gaining the upper hand in the conflict, while military analysts say heavy use of the weapons by both sides is making it difficult for troops to make land advances. (Source: Reuters)

11 Feb 24. Japan to pledge $106m in aid to Ukraine -Kyodo News.

Japan will pledge 15.8bn yen ($106m) in aid to Ukraine at a conference to be held in Tokyo on Feb. 19, Kyodo News reported on Sunday, citing unidentified sources.

The funding will be used for reconstruction in seven areas, including agriculture and the disposal of rubble, Kyodo said.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal are set to attend the conference, along with government and industry representatives from both countries, national broadcaster NHK reported on Saturday.

Japan’s Cabinet Secretariat was not available for comment outside of regular working hours.

Japan in December, after it overhauled its arms export guidelines, said it would prepare to ship Patriot air defence missiles to the United States.

Japan still cannot ship weapons to countries at war, but such shipments to the U.S. could indirectly benefit Ukraine by boosting Washington’s capacity to provide military aid to Kyiv. (Source: Reuters)

11 Feb 24. Russian forces are using Starlink terminals on the front line in Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian military, which said the adoption of Elon Musk’s satellite internet service by Moscow’s troops was becoming “systemic”. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence unit said on Telegram on Sunday that radio intercepts confirmed the use of Starlink terminals by Russian units operating in the occupied Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. “Yes, there have been recorded cases of the Russian occupiers using these devices,” Andriy Yusov, a GUR officer, told RBC-Ukraine. “This is starting to take on a systemic nature.” GUR made its claim following multiple reports in recent days that Russian forces are using Starlink devices, including a sighting reported by news outlet Defense One of the company’s distinctive square-shaped receivers close to Russian positions. One Russian volunteer group flaunted on social media the devices it said it had purchased for Russian forces. Responding to those reports, Musk’s SpaceX, which owns Starlink, said on X last week that it “does not do business of any kind with the Russian government or its military. Starlink is not active in Russia, meaning service will not work in that country. SpaceX has never sold or marketed Starlink in Russia, nor has it shipped equipment to locations in Russia.” Musk provided thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine to help it fend off Russian troops soon after their full-scale invasion in February 2022, giving Kyiv’s forces a valuable technological advantage in the form of high-speed internet for communications, targeting and battlefield management software. However, Kyiv’s praise for the businessman turned to fury when Musk started to limit the operation of Starlink in areas of Ukraine that Russian forces have occupied since 2014, including Crimea. That was because Ukraine wanted its forces to be able to use the system for operations in Russian-controlled areas of their territory, though Kyiv is now complaining because Russians, as well as Ukrainians, are using it in contested areas. But introducing or reintroducing so-called “geofencing” to stop Starlink use by Russia on the front line could also affect the Ukrainian military’s devices given the proximity of the two sides’ positions. The apparent use of the technology by Russian forces to help their invasion is another example of Moscow’s forces adapting their tactics in response to Ukraine’s innovations as they have done with the mass use of cheap, commercially available racing drones. Ukrainian media reported that Russian forces may have obtained the terminals via intermediaries in Dubai. In response, SpaceX said on X: “Starlink also does not operate in Dubai. Starlink cannot be purchased in Dubai nor does SpaceX ship there.” “Additionally, Starlink has not authorised any third-party intermediaries, resellers or distributors of any kind to sell Starlink in Dubai. If SpaceX obtains knowledge that a Starlink terminal is being used by a sanctioned or unauthorised party, we investigate the claim and take actions to deactivate the terminal if confirmed.” (Source: FT.com)

09 Feb 24. DOD Official Restates Why Supporting Ukraine Is in U.S. Interest. As Congress once again addresses U.S. military aid to Ukraine, a DOD official said helping Ukraine defeat Russian aggression is in the United States’ interest.

Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told Clifford May, president of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, that U.S. aid to Ukraine has global impacts.

Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine on Feb. 22, 2021. Russian forces were larger and better equipped, but Ukrainian forces stopped them from capturing the capital of Kyiv and decapitating the government and installing a puppet regime that answered to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Ukrainians also held Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city, and fought Russian forces to a standstill in the south and east.

The United States has provided $43bn in support to Ukraine, covering everything from Javelin missiles to tanks to ambulances to long-range strike missiles to air defense capabilities and much, much more. U.S. service members are training Ukrainian forces in Europe and the United States. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III formed and still leads the Ukraine Defense Security Group which now has 50 nations that contribute to Ukraine’s defense.

This aid is key to helping Ukrainian forces take on and, in many areas, push back the Russians. U.S. government officials said in January that more than 300,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine.

Wallander said the United States wants a Ukraine that is sovereign, independent and secure, adding that the Ukrainian people do not want Russian overlords and are fighting for their freedom. “We want the Ukrainian people to be able to live the European life they have chosen,” she said during the discussion.

While supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do, U.S. support is about more than just Ukraine, Wallander said. ” is about the international order that keeps all countries and all populations safe, including Russia,” she said.

Putin is seeking to “shred” the international order, the assistant secretary said. Putin wants the ability for large countries to intimidate and dominate smaller neighbors.

And Russian actions have implications around the world, she said. “It’s not just a European security issue, it is a global security issue,” Wallander said.

Built into the fabric of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is the agreement that nuclear powers will respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of other countries and agree to support the peaceful use of nuclear energy for their prosperity. “All of that is at stake in Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine,” she said.

Further afield, Chinese leaders are watching the war in Ukraine closely and have “a huge stake in Russia success,” Wallander said.

If Putin is successful in shredding the United Nations Charter and benefiting from the use of force in Europe, “What’s to stop China from following that path when it is ready?” she asked.

China has supported Russia in its illegal invasion, and the Asian nation has benefited from Russia’s increasing isolation. “The Chinese leadership doesn’t want Putin to lose, because of what that would mean about the strength of the international community in pushing back against a bully,” she said.

Beyond the geopolitical reasons for supporting Ukraine, there are very human reasons, as well. The Russian invasion has been incredibly brutal, with indiscriminate attacks on civilians throughout the country. Wallander noted that Russian brutality has not been limited to Ukraine. The Russian military has used the same tactics in Chechnya and Georgia.

But in Ukraine, Russia has gone beyond merely targeting civilian infrastructure(Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

. Russia has been taking Ukrainian children from their families or taking orphans and sending them to Russia. It is an almost “Nazi-like idea of ethnic purity that they need to be educated as Russians and that they are somehow going to be re-educated and brought back to benefit the Russian Federation,” Wallander said. “It is just astonishing to think that a Europe, which faced the horror of such a leadership doing that to populations in the 1940s, is now confronted with another leadership that is doing that … in the 2020s.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

12 Feb 24. Poland’s new government eyes role as EU-Ukraine middleman. Sworn into office in December, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he will overhaul his country’s relations with both Ukraine and the European Union, a shift that could help Poland spearhead further Western-driven armament of the Ukrainian military against the ongoing Russian invasion.

Tusk developed his international credentials as president of the European Council between 2014 and 2019. Since taking office, he has vowed to drum up support for supplying arms and equipment to Poland’s war-torn neighbor.

Under his rule, the nation will also attempt to influence more reluctant countries from the region like Hungary, whose prime minister initially blocked the EU’s plan to provide a €50bn (U.S. $54.2bn) aid package to Ukraine.

“I will … demand a full mobilization of the free world, the Western world, to help Ukraine in this war. There is no alternative to such thinking,” Tusk said at the Sejm, a chamber of Poland’s parliament, on Dec. 12, one day before we was sworn into office.

“I can’t listen to some politicians — European but also from other Western countries — who talk about being tired with the situation in Ukraine,” he added, referring to a sense of fatigue that has begun to creep into the political discourse of some of Kyiv’s allies.

Ever since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Poland has established itself as one of Ukraine’s firmest allies, delivering tanks, armored vehicles, howitzers, fighter jets and other types of gear. However, in the months preceding Poland’s Oct. 15 general election, which ousted the Law and Justice party from government and paved the way for Tusk’s new Cabinet, the bilateral relationship has turned sour.

What began as a clash over an extended Polish ban on Ukrainian grain imports eventually seeped into defense cooperation, leading then-Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to halt arms deliveries and focus on upgrading the Polish military instead.

As Tusk hopes to reinvigorate Western military aid to Ukraine, his government will need to reposition itself closer to the decision-making process in Brussels where both the EU and NATO are based, local analysts say.

Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has already announced that deepening cooperation with allies would be a priority.

“I want to declare that … we will build the strongest possible position within the structures that guarantee our national security,” the minister said, referring to Warsaw’s position as an EU and NATO member.

Tomasz Smura, head of the research office of the Warsaw-based Casimir Pulaski Foundation, told Defense News he expects relations with Ukraine to improve under the new government. For example, Poland could act as something of an adviser to Ukraine in shedding Soviet-era weapons while adopting Western technology, having gone through the same process, Smura said.

“Poland could use its experience of operating F-16 fighters, helping Ukraine’s Air Force with logistics and training. The aircraft that are going to be delivered to Ukraine could be serviced by Polish plants,” Smura said. “Poland still has some older tanks and armored vehicles we could donate to Ukraine, but we are gradually depleting our stock. The Ukrainian military is now switching to Western technology anyway, and we can assist in this process.”

The expert said Poland can also encourage its EU partners to deliver on commitments the bloc already made to Ukraine’s wartime effort.

“The EU promised to deliver 1 m artillery shells to Ukraine by this March, and it seems we will fall short of this goal. Poland can support Ukraine by continuing to increase its own manufacturing capacities,” Smura added. “Russia has transformed its economy into a war machine and produces a significantly higher volume of ammunition compared with the prewar period. We need to match this growth.” (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

11 Feb 24. Zelenskiy appoints Oleksandr Pavliuk as new ground forces chief. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has appointed Oleksandr Pavliuk, former first deputy defence minister, as the new commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, according to a decree published on Sunday.

Pavliuk, a lieutenant-general who served in the ministry role for a year, replaces Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi after he was tapped this week as commander of Ukraine’s armed forces.

On Saturday, Zelenskiy announced five other senior military appointments, filling out a rebooted team to bolster Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s nearly two-year-old invasion.

Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of men and equipment as it heads into 2024 having made few battlefield gains throughout the past year. It also faces a disruption in military aid from the United States, its biggest backer. (Source: Reuters)

09 Feb 24. Ukraine to get more NASAMS air defense systems. Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram recently proposed to the Norwegian Parliament to order a further ten launch units and four fire control centers of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, better known as NASAMS, from Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace (KDA).

This proposal, amounting to a NOK 3.45bn ($326m) investment, comes amidst Russian missile and drone attacks in Ukraine.

“The Norwegian NASAMs system saves Ukrainian lives and prevent the destruction of buildings and infrastructure. The Russian missile and drone attacks are extensive and brutal, so air defense is absolutely decisive for Ukraine. At the same time, I am concerned that we reacquire air defenses for our own defense as quickly as possible,” said Arild Gram. The NASAMS system, developed by KONGSBERG and Raytheon, boasts advanced features such as net-centric architecture, Beyond Visual Range (BVR) capabilities, and integration with a country’s Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) system. Its modular design includes a command post, active 3D radar, passive electro-optical and infrared sensor, and missile canister launchers equipped with AMRAAM missiles.

With a customer base spanning thirteen countries and a proven track record of reliability, NASAMS has been continuously evolving since its introduction in Norway. Its command and control solution has been adopted by fifteen nations, offering robust protection in various environmental conditions. (Source: Google/https://defence-blog.com/)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company

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NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

Protek Selected By Dutch Armed Forces

PARLIAMENTARY QUESTIONS

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE