NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Feb 09.

*US: Sustained policy stagnation to foreign aid bill underscores policy risks for Russia-Ukraine war. On 8 February, the US Senate advanced a USD 95.34 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan after Senate Republicans blocked a previous version of the bill that included an immigration policy overhaul. The stripped-down bill passed an initial procedural motion 67-32, with 17 Republicans voting in favour. The chamber has not scheduled a vote for final passage, though the Senate is likely to remain in session over the weekend if needed. The bill includes USD 61 billion for Ukraine, USD 14 billion for Israel, USD 4.83 billion for US partners in the Indo-Pacific and USD 9.15 billion for humanitarian aid. In the coming days, it is likely that the Senate will pass the bill, overcoming continued Republican requests for amendments. However, increased policy stagnation risks will be sustained, as the package still faces significant obstacles in the House of Representatives. In the near term, we assess that continued stagnation will increase policy risks specifically regarding the US’ role in the Russia-Ukraine war. We also assess that stalled aid to Ukraine will increase tensions with US allies in the region (and Europe more broadly) in the short-to-medium term

Feb 08.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

DONETSK: The situation for Ukrainian forces around Avdiivka has become ‘critical’, with intensifying Russian attacks and ammunition and personnel shortages placing major pressure on the city’s defenders
STRIKES: On 7 February, Russia launched a massive strike campaign involving 64 projectiles against various regions in Ukraine, the second-largest of 2024 so far
ELECTION: Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) disqualified anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin from running against incumbent President Vladimir Putin in the March presidential election
FORECAST: Ukraine’s parliament approved the first reading of a bill tightening up mobilisation, though delays to the bill will only exacerbate acute personnel shortages at the front
OFFENSIVES: On 7 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky set out the priorities for Ukraine’s military in 2024, namely strengthening air defences, increasing long-range capabilities and inflicting ‘maximum systemic losses’ on Russia. The absence of a specific mention of retaking territory likely reflects the defensive stance Ukraine is likely to take in 2024, as it recovers from the limited gains of the 2023 counter-offensive and contends with ever-worsening ammunition and personnel shortages. See FORECAST for further analysis.
BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage posted this week has now confirmed earlier Russian claims that they captured Vesele, a village located roughly 13 miles (21km) to the north-east of Bakhmut, and that they have advanced further north. Further to the south, geolocated footage from 7 January also indicates that Russian forces have made marginal advances towards Niu-York, located eight miles (13km) west of Horlivka.
DONETSK: On 6 February, Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Ukrainian Avdiivka military administration, warned that the operational situation around Avdiivka has become ‘critical’. Barabash explained that Russian forces have significantly scaled up the intensity of attacks around the settlement. Meanwhile, on 8 February, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) reported that the Russian command has likely transferred additional forces to the Avdiivka sector over the past two weeks, increasing the pressure on Ukrainian positions around the city. While intense fighting is taking place in the city’s south-eastern outskirts in the form of street-to-street combat, Ukrainian forces are also conducting counter-attacks to keep the main supply route operational. Russian offensive operations rely heavily on guided munitions dropped by tactical aircraft; strikes have increased from 30 to 50 per day, as of 5 February. Given the increasing Russian pressure, maintaining the main supply route to Avdiivka will be crucial; contingency plans for a withdrawal from the city are likely being drawn up in case of major Russian advances in the coming weeks.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 5 February and additional footage from 6 February indicates that Russian forces advanced in residential areas south and north of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, geolocated footage posted on 7 February shows Russian advances in the eastern limits of Heorhiivka, a settlement located immediately north-west of Marinka.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: On 7 February, Russia launched a massive strike campaign involving 64 projectiles against various regions in Ukraine, the second-largest of 2024 so far. Russian forces reportedly launched 20 Shahed-136/131 drones, 29 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles, four Kh-22 cruise missiles, three Kalibr cruise missiles, five S-300 guided missiles and three Iskandr-M ballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 26 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles, 3 Kalibr missiles and 15 drones; they did not intercept any of the ballistic missiles or Kh-22s. Explosions were reported in Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Lviv oblasts. The Kyiv authorities reported that missiles hit buildings in the Dniprovsky and Holosiivskyi districts of the capital, where at least four people were killed and 38 others were injured. That particular strike damaged energy infrastructure, leaving 19,400 residents in the capital and 1,000 residents in Kharkiv without electricity. Power supplies were restored shortly after.
STRIKES: Notably, the latest attack against Kharkiv struck industrial sites producing concrete; they appeared to employ at least two North Korean-provided Kn-23 (Hwasong-11 Ga) ballistic missiles. The deployment of North Korean missiles will possibly reduce Ukraine’s already limited ability to detect and intercept such missiles in the short term, given their new attack profile. The significance of sites producing concrete being hit remains less clear. It is too early to determine whether Russia is seeking to increase strikes against industrial targets with a possible aim to disrupt Ukraine’s ability to construct large-scale static defences across eastern parts of the country, akin to the defences Russia successfully built in the south which blunted Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive.
STRIKES: Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russia possibly launched a ‘hypersonic’ Tsirkon missile at the capital Kyiv during the 7 February attack. If confirmed, this would be a notable development; the Tsirkon is a new missile platform designed to be launched by naval assets. It has a primary sea or littoral attack capability. If these missiles are able to reach Kyiv, this would suggest that Russia has possibly made modifications to the launch-platform.
STRIKES: Early on 8 February, Ukrainian air defences intercepted 11 of the 17 Russian-launched Shahed-136/131 drones. The projectiles were destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Vinnytsia oblasts. The local authorities reported that the attack damaged an infrastructure facility in Vinnystia and a building in the port of Odesa.
STRIKES: Reports from 6 February indicated that the Air Alert application, supported by Kyiv, has been updated. Ajax Systems developed the application to notify Ukrainians about the beginning and end of civil defence alerts across Ukraine. Such alerts typically warn of airstrikes, chemical attacks and technological catastrophes. The latest update includes unique alerts for each type of threat; it also boasts an improved power-saving mode and addresses issues with alarm sounds and status updates via pinned notifications.
STRIKES: On 6 February, the Prana Network cyber group claimed to have compromised mail servers from an Iranian company involved in the export of drones to Russia. The group published information on the price of Shahed drones sold by Iran to Russia, showing that the initial cost of the Shahed drone was RUB 23m (USD 375,000) per unit. However, the reports indicate that Moscow pays RUB 12m (USD 193,000) per unit if it orders 6,000 or more units. The reports also indicate that Moscow’s payments are partly made in gold. Altogether, the leaked documents suggest that Russia is paying Iran roughly USD 4.5bn per year for Shahed drones, including more expensive Shahed-238 drones; Moscow has reportedly ordered 2,310 Shahed-238 drones a year at a cost of USD 900,000 per drone.
STRIKES: On 7 January, Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov announced that Kyiv will sign contracts to produce first-person view (FPV) drones domestically. Fedorov stated that the drones will have a range of 25 miles (40km) and that several types of such drones are currently being tested. While Ukraine currently enjoys an advantage in FPV drones, their limited range is broadly insufficient to strike Russian artillery situated 9-15 miles (15-24km) from the frontline. In December, the Ukrainian authorities pledged to produce 1 m FPV drones in 2024 and more than 11,000 medium- and long-range drones. At the same time, reports from 6 February indicate that the Turkish defence company Bayraktar, which specialises in drones, has started the construction of a drone production facility near Kyiv. The facility will reportedly manufacture TB2 or TB3 drones; it aims to produce 120 units per year.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

ELECTION: On 8 February, Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) disqualified anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin from running against incumbent President Vladimir Putin in the March presidential election. The CEC reportedly claimed to have found that around 15% of the supporters’ signatures he submitted were invalid. Nadezhdin’s campaign benefited from the support of anti-war critics, especially those who fled Russia, garnering around 100,000 signatures. At the same time, prominent anti-Kremlin political figures such as Alexei Navalny and disqualified anti-war candidate Yekaterina Duntsova endorsed Nadezhdin’s candidacy. As such, while Nadezhdin was never likely to pose a serious threat to Putin’s re-election, his candidacy would possibly have served as a platform for anti-Kremlin critics to express their opposition to Putin’s re-election; it would possibly also have triggered a protest movement. We therefore assess that the Kremlin is determined to provide Putin with an uncontested victory to strengthen regime stability.
MARITIME: Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported on 6 February that Ukraine’s special operations forces (SOF) conducted a raid against a Russian-occupied offshore mining platform near Crimea. The MoD claimed that Russian forces used the platform to control part of the Black Sea and adjust their fire towards southern Ukraine. SOF forces reportedly seized equipment, most likely radar and a drone signal enhancing system, and installed mines on the platform before retreating. The antenna mast of the platform was blown up. It is unclear when the raid took place, though it further demonstrates Ukraine’s growing ability and will to target Russian (and Russian-held) assets in the Black Sea and to constrain Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF).
MARITIME: The strategic communications’ department (Stratcom) of Ukraine’s armed forces stated on 6 February that Ukraine has disabled 33% of the Russian BSF’s warships since the launch of the full-scale invasion. Stratcom claimed that the Ukrainian military has taken 24 vessels and one submarine out of action, though we cannot confirm these statistics. It revealed that publicly available information indicates that the fleet consisted of 74 warships at the beginning of the war.
MARITIME: Ukraine’s maritime counter-offensive in the Black Sea is undoubtedly among the most successful fronts over the last 12 months for Kyiv, with Ukraine’s maritime capabilities continuing to grow. The UK’s DI assessed on 6 February that Ukraine’s reported sinking of a Russian missile corvette, the Ivanovets, on 1 February will highly likely impact the BSF’s command and control elements, possibly prompting commanders to re-evaluate their manoeuvrability near western Crimea. However, DI noted that the Russian navy is almost certainly still able to conduct its primary operational tasks in the region, such as long-range strikes and patrols. For further analysis.
RECONSTRUCTION: On 5 February, the European Commission and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a private investment arm of the World Bank, signed a guarantee agreement to support investments that will aid Ukraine’s reconstruction. The EU will provide up to EUR90m (almost USD97m) in financial guarantees to support investments in Ukraine through the agreement. The agreement is part of the IFC’s Better Futures Program, which aims to mobilise over EUR500m (USD538m) in private sector investments across sectors such as essential infrastructure and goods production.
RECONSTRUCTION: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on 6 February that the bloc intends to start paying tranches of a EUR 50 bn (USD 54 bn) financial support package to Ukraine in March. Von der Leyen did not specify the amount of the sum, though it will likely modestly assist Kyiv’s macro-financial stability in the short term. Ukraine’s economic development and trade minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, stated on 1 February that Kyiv expects to receive a first payment of EUR 4.5 bn (USD 4.8 bn) in March. Such payments will prove vital for Ukraine to maintain basic government services and macro-economic stability; as a result, they will free up Ukrainian domestic funds to pay future mobilised personnel in 2024. For further analysis, please see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 1 February 2024.
SABOTAGE: On 7 February, the Swedish prosecution authority announced the closure of its investigation into the September 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. The investigation concluded that there was no Swedish involvement and therefore Swedish jurisdiction does not apply. Swedish Public Prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist stated that the German investigators have been handed material that could be used as evidence. The German authorities reportedly aim to compare traces of explosives found on parts of the pipelines seized by the Swedish authorities with traces found on a sailing yacht – the ‘Andromeda’ – which is the focus of the German investigation.
SABOTAGE: In late 2023, it was reported that German investigators were convinced that a small team of Ukrainians used the Andromeda to conduct the sabotage. Due to the sensitivity of the issue, the German investigation is highly likely to protract. Any official conclusion that a team of Ukrainians carried out the attack would possibly undermine German military aid to Ukraine and drive pro-Russian protests in eastern Germany. For further analysis, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 13 November 2023.

FORECAST

MOBILISATION: On 7 February, Ukraine’s parliament approved the first reading of a bill tightening up mobilisation. If passed, it will lower the age at which people can be mobilised from 27 to 25, begin online call-ups for mobilised personnel and introduce tougher punishments for draft evasion, including an asset freeze, among other measures. However, earlier on 8 February, Ukrainian Parliamentary Leader of the ruling Servant of the People Party Davyd Arakhamia said there are elements of the bill that could change for the second reading. This includes the controversial provision for blocking citizens’ accounts if they evade the draft. A Ukrainian lawmaker, Yaroslav Zheleznyak, stated that the bill will possibly enter into force in April, noting that it will most likely pass the final reading in late February. However, the ongoing political back-and-forth over the bill will only delay the needed expansion of mobilisation as Ukraine faces an intensifying Russian offensive.

On 8 February, the Washington Post reported on worsening Ukrainian personnel shortages at the front, underscoring the acute importance of fresh rounds of mobilisation in early 2024. Infantry shortages have reportedly become particularly acute. According to one battalion commander from a mechanised brigade, his unit currently has fewer than 40 infantry personnel (a fully-equipped brigade should have over 200). Similarly, another battalion commander stated that the companies in his unit are, on average, only staffed at 35%; other commanders have reiterated that this remains typical for many units across the frontline. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyi (who is expected to be dismissed) previously called for the mobilisation of an additional 500,000 personnel, though Zelensky pushed back against this request, likely due to the unpopularity of such an expansion.

This chronic shortage of infantry is inevitably limiting troops’ leave time, which is having a knock-on impact on morale, especially as physical and psychological exhaustion increases. The fact that the average age of a Ukrainian soldier on the frontline is 43 underscores that physical fitness-related issues are also compounding the impacts of infantry shortages on units’ combat effectiveness.

Growing personnel shortages and hollowed out units will increase the risk of Russian forces exploiting weak spots in the Ukrainian line; an overall lack of reserves and personnel will possibly prevent Ukraine from effectively reinforcing its line in order to contain a Russian breakthrough. At the moment, the saturation of FPV drones is likely preventing Russia from exploiting such gaps and providing Ukrainian forces with a defensive advantage. However, it remains unclear just how long this situation will last, particularly given the concurrent artillery ammunition shortages. On 5 February, Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko reported that Russian forces have intensified shelling by almost 25% over the last week; this comes at a time when Ukrainian forces are being forced to ration their own artillery shells at an increasing rate.

*German investigation into Nord Stream sabotage is likely to protract due to sensitivity. On 7 February, the Swedish prosecution authority announced the closure of its investigation into the September 2022 Nord Stream pipelines sabotage. The investigation concluded that there was no Swedish involvement and therefore Swedish jurisdiction does not apply. Swedish Public Prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist stated that German investigators have been handed material that could be used as evidence. The German authorities reportedly aim to compare traces of explosives found on parts of the pipelines seized by the Swedish authorities with traces found on a sailing yacht – the ‘Andromeda’ – which is the focus of the German investigation. In late 2023, it was reported that German investigators were convinced that a small team of Ukrainians used the Andromeda to conduct the sabotage. Due to the sensitivity of the issue, the German investigation is highly likely to protract. If it is concluded that a team of Ukrainians carried out the attack, German military aid to Ukraine would possibly be undermined; we assess that such a finding would also drive the likelihood pro-Russian protests in eastern Germany.

*Russia: Disqualification of anti-war candidate underscores Kremlin efforts to secure uncontested win. Earlier on 8 February, Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) disqualified the anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin from running against incumbent President Vladimir Putin in the March presidential election. The CEC reportedly claims that around 15% of the supporters’ signatures submitted by Nadezhdin are invalid. Nadezhdin’s campaign benefited from the support of anti-war critics, especially those who fled Russia; he reportedly garnered around 100,000 signatures of support. At the same time, prominent anti-Kremlin political figures such as Alexei Navalny and the disqualified anti-war candidate Yekaterina Duntsova endorsed Nadezhdin’s candidacy. As such, while Nadezhdin was never likely to pose a serious threat to Putin’s re-election, his candidacy could possibly have served as a platform for anti-Kremlin critics to express their opposition to Putin’s re-election; it could also have served as a possible trigger for protests. We therefore assess that the Kremlin is determined to provide Putin with an uncontested victory to strengthen regime stability.

Feb 06.

*Russia: VPN ban will reinforce censorship, increase government scrutiny over foreign businesses. On 5 February, Ekaterina Mizulina, the head of the pro-Kremlin Safe Internet League NGO, stated that the authorities will most likely ban major virtual private networks (VPNs) from 1 March. Mizulina justified the measure by warning about the alleged dangers of using VPNs. However, the move likely aims to isolate Russia’s internet from the World Wide Web and to restrict access to content banned in Russia during the presidential election in March. At the same time, Russia’s state communications regulator, Roskomnadzor, reportedly plans to create a database of the geolocations of Russian users’ IP addresses, likely to locate individuals who share information restricted in Russia. The ban on major VPNs combined with the creation of an IP address database is almost certainly part of the Kremlin’s efforts to reinforce censorship during the electoral period amid its wider efforts to implement its ‘sovereign internet’ concept. We assess that such measures will likely result in increased government scrutiny over foreign businesses operating in Russia, as well as growing security service surveillance risks.

Feb 05.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

DONETSK: Russian forces have likely entered the northern outskirts of Avdiivka as they continue to try to steadily isolate the city
STRIKES: The latest Russian drone and missile attacks targeted energy infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), indicating that Russian forces are still targeting the energy sector amid a broader focus on military-industrial targets
PROTESTS: The Russian security services detained around 20-30 journalists in central Moscow at a rally of soldiers’ wives, likely in a bid to limit coverage ahead of the presidential election in March
FORECAST: The US Senate will vote on a new Ukraine funding bill proposal on 7 February, though the political impasse is likely to continue, further exacerbating artillery shortages for Ukraine
OFFENSIVES: On 4 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the war on the ground is currently stagnating; he blames the situation on shortages and equipment delays. As we have previously assessed, the current positional nature of the fighting means the frontline has remained broadly static for months, despite efforts by both sides to launch large-scale offensives. At present, Russian forces retain the initiative, meaning they can largely dictate where to focus on the battlefield. However, the extent to which Russia has built up sizeable reserves to support its large-scale Spring offensive remains unclear.
OFFENSIVES: On 4 February, Ukrainian milblogger Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces currently have a reserve of around 60,000-62,000 personnel, but that only 20,000 have been sufficiently equipped. Mashovets also reported that Russia is currently producing 250-300 new or modernised main battle tanks per year, while also overhauling and repairing another 250-300 tanks annually that have been in storage or otherwise sustained damage on the battlefield. Similar numbers of armoured vehicles are also reportedly being produced. If accurate, these reports indicate that Russia is broadly able to match its vehicle losses, though it is unlikely to be able to outfit a major reserve capable of tipping the balance on the battlefield or opening up a new frontline in the short-to-medium term.
OFFENSIVES: A report by the Ukrainian OSINT outlet Frontelligence Insight published on 1 February indicates that Russian forces have been establishing static artillery positions for long periods of time, made possible by Ukraine’s widespread artillery ammunition shortages. These shortages have seemingly undermined Ukrainian counter-battery capabilities at various points in the war, providing Russian forces with greater ability to utilise its artillery advantage between late 2022 and early 2023, and again from January 2024 (when Ukrainian shortages were most apparent).
OFFENSIVES: Ukraine’s drone advantage, particularly with regard to first-person view (FPV) drones, is unlikely to be able to offset this artillery issue given that many of the FPV drones do not have the range to strike Russian artillery situated 9-15 miles (15-24km) from the frontline. Russian President Vladimir Putin himself notably acknowledged the Ukrainian advantage in drones, stating on 2 February that it remained the ’Achilles’ heel’ of the Russian armed forces. However, Russia ultimately retains the artillery advantage, while current Ukrainian ammunition shortages are creating an opportunity for Russian forces to maximise the effect of this artillery; this is highly likely adding pressure to Ukrainian forces defending key sites, such as Avdiivka.
BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces have launched small-scale counter-attacks along the Bakhmut axis in recent days; yet despite reports of marginal advances, Russian forces are also successfully counter-attacking. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s 26th Artillery Brigade reported on 4 February that Ukrainian forces have made recent advances. However, he cautioned that the situation remains highly dynamic and is subject to change. Geolocated footage also confirmed on 3 February recent Russian advances north of Klishchiivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut, indicating that the situation remains dynamic and that territory is changing hands.
DONETSK: Russian forces continued to advance near Avdiivka over the past 72 hours, with credible reports indicating that Russian units have entered the northern outskirts of the city. Two Ukrainian sources reported on 4 February that the situation in Avdiivka has become ‘critical’ after Russian units exploited weather conditions (which prevented aerial reconnaissance) to entrench themselves in buildings in the northern outskirts. Additionally, geolocated footage posted on 3 February indicates that Russian forces recently made gains along the H-20 road to the east of the city.
DONETSK: While Russian forces are unlikely to capture Avdiivka imminently, the Ukrainian defence of the city is becoming increasingly challenging. In addition to a lack of force rotation, ammunition shortages exacerbated by the US military aid impasse have contributed to Russia’s significant artillery advantage near Avdiivka. The trajectory of the defence of Avdiivka will also possibly hinge on the potential dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. His dismissal could realistically free Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to double-down on the symbolic city’s defence, akin to the president’s decision to commit significant resources to the defence of Bakhmut in 2023, despite the General Staff’s scepticism that the sacrifice was worthwhile. We assess that Avdiivka is likely to become the focal point of the war in the coming weeks, as Russian forces steadily attempt to close the cauldron and force a Ukrainian withdraw.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage released on 4 February indicates that Russian forces achieved a slight advance north-west of the recently captured city of Marinka. Positional fighting along this sector of the frontline is ongoing.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 3 February, the Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on a working visit he made to Ukrainian forces near Kupiansk (Kharkiv oblast). Syrskyi reported that Russian forces continue to conduct high-intensity attacks and are constantly pulling up new reserves. Despite this, Russian forces have only made limited gains along this front in recent weeks, though it remains possible that Russia will intensify operations on this axis in the coming weeks in a bid to begin the process of reclaiming lost territory in Kharkiv.
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Overnight on 3 February, Russian forces fired 14 Shahed 136/131 drones and two Kh-59 cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets. Ukraine’s air force reported that nine drones were intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Zhytomyr oblasts. It also noted that a large proportion of the drones targeted energy facilities in Dnipropetrovsk; in keeping with standard policy, no details on successful strikes were given. However, the Ukrainian energy company Ukrenergo did report that a drone attack against energy facilities in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk) was one of the largest attacks against energy infrastructure so far in 2024.
STRIKES: The head of Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, stated on 4 February that six naval drones were used to destroy the Russian missile corvette ‘Ivanovets’ on 1 February. According to Budanov, the attack was carried out by a special unit of the GUR, ‘Group 13’, which used a multi-purpose drone called the ‘Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatuses (MAGURA) V5’. Budanov additionally claimed that the Ivanovets sank as a result of the attack and that a Russian search and rescue operation to retrieve the vessel was unsuccessful, though we cannot confirm this.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

PROTESTS: The security services detained around 20-30 journalists in the centre of Moscow (Russia) on 3 February at a rally of soldiers’ wives calling for their husbands to be returned from Ukraine. Russian opposition media estimated that at least 200 people attended the protest. According to OVD-Info, a media project that focuses largely on freedom of assembly, at least 27 people were detained, mostly journalists. The Russian authorities likely targeted journalists rather than the protesters themselves to limit reporting on the demonstration. In addition, we assess that selected targeting by the security forces was possibly intended to mitigate the potential backlash which the arrests of soldiers’ wives might have generated within Russian society ahead of the presidential election in March.
MOBILISATION: Earlier on 5 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted a proposal to Ukraine’s parliament to extend martial law and general mobilisation for another 90 days. Zelensky first declared martial law and a general mobilisation on 24 February 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine; it has since been renewed on a rolling basis. We assess that the measures will therefore almost certainly be approved and run through until mid-May. Separately, the Ukrainian parliament is expected to consider the updated version of a bill tightening mobilisation this week.
INFIGHTING: Ukrainian media reported earlier on 5 February that Zelensky is also considering dismissing the Chief of the General Staff, Serhiy Shaptala, alongside Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Insiders familiar with the matter claimed that the reshuffle will possibly take place in the coming days. While the report cannot be confirmed, Zelensky stated in an interview with Italian media released late on 4 February that a ‘reset’ is necessary when asked about Zaluzhnyi’s potential dismissal. However, Zelensky clarified that he was referring not only to Ukraine’s military leadership, but also plans to replace several unspecified government officials.
GRAIN: On 4 February, a Turkish official disclosed that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will discuss a new mechanism for Ukrainian Black Sea grain exports at their upcoming meeting. Putin is set to visit Turkey on 12 February to meet with Erdoğan. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated there are efforts underway to find ‘new ways’ to transport Ukrainian grain to world markets without providing specifics. The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), which was brokered by Turkey and the UN, collapsed in July 2023 when Russia withdrew from the deal. The Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on 19 January that there is no reason to resume talks on restarting the BSGI, claiming that Russia’s conditions were never implemented. As such, Moscow is unlikely to agree to the implementation of a new mechanism allowing the export of Ukrainian grain unless it addresses Russia’s original complaints or Russia is granted further concessions.

FORECAST

AID: On 4 February, US senators revealed a USD 118.2 bn border deal and foreign aid package which includes USD 60.1 bn in assistance for Ukraine. Republicans have insisted that further funding for Kyiv should be conditional on border security reforms. If passed, the new deal would introduce significantly tighter measures to stem illegal border crossings in a bid to address Republican demands and increase the likelihood of it passing.

While the Senate is likely to hold an initial vote on the bill on 7 February at the latest, it has already met opposition, raising doubts about whether it will eventually be approved. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that he is confident that the majority of senators want to pass the legislation. However, the vote on whether to begin the debate requires 60 votes to move forward; it is uncertain whether there will be enough support to meet even this threshold.

Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson declared that the bill would be ‘dead on arrival’ if it reaches the Republican-controlled House, indicating that it is unlikely to pass in the lower chamber, thereby extending the impasse. Similarly, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise stated that the bill would not receive a vote in the House. Senators will possibly have to decide in the coming weeks whether to attempt to pass aid for Ukraine and other overseas US priorities separately if Congress is unable to pass the legislation. As artillery and other munition shortages deepen in Ukraine, the current political impasse in the US is set to have an increasingly tangible impact on the battlefield the longer it draws out. (Source: Sibylline)

09 Feb 24. The US Senate voted to move forward with more debate over a new bill to send $60bn in additional funds to Ukraine, raising hopes that a compromise was in sight to increase American support for Kyiv’s war effort. In a procedural vote on Thursday afternoon, the Senate voted 67-32 to proceed with a pared-back bill that would give billions to Ukraine, as well as money for Israel, Taiwan and humanitarian aid for Gaza and elsewhere. Sixteen Senate Republicans voted to advance the bill. But the proposal still faces an uphill battle if it is to become law. Thursday’s vote sets the stage for a potentially protracted process of haggling over amendments, as Republican senators seek changes to the bill as written. “This is a good first step,” Chuck Schumer, the Senate’s top Democrat, said after Thursday’s vote. “This bill is essential for our national security, for the security of our friends in Ukraine, in Israel, for humanitarian aid for innocent civilians in Gaza and for Taiwan. “Failure to pass this bill would only embolden autocrats like [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and Xi [Jinping of China] who want nothing more than America’s decline.” An earlier bipartisan deal that tied funding for Ukraine, Israel and the US’s Indo-Pacific allies to stricter controls at the US-Mexico border collapsed this week under the weight of opposition from Donald Trump The failure of that bill prompted Schumer to push “Plan B,” which stripped out the border provisions that Trump objected to, but kept the foreign aid in place. Several Republican senators nevertheless continue to oppose the revised bill, with some saying they want to reopen the issue of immigration. Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator from South Carolina, said he would vote against the new security bill on Thursday, saying he believed “we have not done all we can to secure our southern border”. “I enthusiastically support Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, but as I have been saying for months now, we must protect America first,” said Graham. The tortuous debate on Capitol Hill has sparked concerns about US leadership in European capitals. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, tore into Republican lawmakers on Thursday, writing in a post on social media platform X: “Dear Republican Senators of America. Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. “Shame on you,” Tusk added. Trump, who has said he would end the war in Ukraine on “day one” of his new administration if he were re-elected as president in November’s US election, has yet to publicly weigh in on the latest proposals. The debate in Washington over more aid for Ukraine as it fights against Russia’s invasion has divided the Republican party and raised alarm bells with US allies abroad. Speaking at a fundraiser in New York City on Wednesday night, US President Joe Biden warned that lawmakers risked abandoning Ukraine at a critical moment in the war, and signalling to the rest of the world that the US was stepping back from global leadership. “What happens in the Middle East?” Biden added. “The Taiwan Strait? What happens in Asia? What happens with Ukraine?” (Source: FT.com)

09 Feb 24. Brussels is hoping to release its first payment to Ukraine under a new long-term financial support package in a matter of weeks, according to neighbourhood and enlargement commissioner Olivér Várhelyi — but the rest of a landmark support package will be tied to Kyiv meeting reform demands. Context: on February 1, EU leaders agreed to set up a €50bn, four-year financial aid package for Kyiv inside the shared EU budget, to support the country’s economy as it continues to fight back against Russia’s invasion. The bloc’s previous package of €1.5bn monthly payments ended in December. “For the bridge financing . . . the first part of March is our ambition,” Várhelyi said in an interview. “This is an absolute must, especially with what is going on now in the US.” “This way we will be back on track . . . and will help them with their financial difficulties,” he added. With that payment made, work will turn to setting up a more formalised cash-for-reforms plan agreed between Kyiv and Brussels for Ukraine to receive the rest of the €50bn in quarterly instalments. Ukraine is an EU candidate country, and so the concept is to link the ongoing financial assistance — which Kyiv says is essential to keep the state running as the war rages — to the reform path required of prospective members of the bloc. “Our funding is not just aid. Our funding is based on conditionalities and deliverables. So basically now we need to see a credible plan, reform plan, from Ukraine. It’s almost done, basically,” Várhelyi said. “So, yes, it is a flexible instrument and will move fast now with the bridge financing so not to have any financial gap . . . this is an opportunity created in the facility to ensure liquidity and the safety of payments in Ukraine, which we will do,” he added. “But other than that, everything is linked to delivery.” (Source: FT.com)

09 Feb 24. Ukraine faces a critical gap in western artillery ammunition needed to withstand Russian attacks, officials have warned, as US assistance runs out and Europe fails to hit its own targets for increased arms production. Kyiv has already been struggling to hold back Russia’s troops along a 1,500km active frontline, with Ukrainian forces rationing stockpiles and firing only about a third the number of rounds they need each day to maintain their position. Further aggravating their situation is the failure in Washington to pass $60bn in military and financial aid, which means most American shipments are at an effective pause, while a promised European ramp-up of production has not been fast enough, according to US and European officials. The congressional delay risked creating an “air bubble” or “gap in the hose” of supplies to Kyiv, said a senior US military official. The US Senate on Thursday voted to move forward with more debate over a new bill to send $60bn in additional funds to Ukraine, giving some hope of a last-gasp breakthrough to secure more lethal aid, but Congress’s backing remains far from certain. Western officials have warned that the coming months will stretch Ukraine’s ability to fight with fewer resources, with Russia already exploiting the resource advantage to make gains in key locations such as around the strategic town of Avdiivka. “This is really as grave as we have been portraying it,” a US defence official said, noting that the US had run out of money to fund new weapons contracts for Ukraine or funds that would allow the Pentagon to take inventory from its stockpiles and replenish those stocks. “My take is that this is a very grim scenario,” the defence official said, adding that the Pentagon was particularly concerned about maintaining Ukrainians’ air defence systems and ammunition supplies. (Source: FT.com)

09 Feb 24. Putin threatens World War Three if US deploys troops in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has threatened the United States with a global war that will “bring humanity to the brink” if it deploys troops to Ukraine.

The Russian president appealed to the US to stop the fighting in Ukraine and push for peace, telling US TV personality Tucker Carlson: “We have to look for a way out of this situation.”

Speaking in his first interview with a Western media figure since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Putin appeared to signal for the first time that Washington and Moscow were involved in back-channel peace talks on the war.

“Certain contacts are being maintained,” Putin told Carlson, but declined to go into further detail.

However, the Russian president added: “If somebody has the desire to send regular troops, that would certainly bring humanity to the brink of a very serious global conflict.”

Putin accuses Boris Johnson of sabotaging peace deal

Putin, 71, also accused Boris Johnson of sabotaging a peace deal with Ukraine in the spring of 2022.

Carlson asked Putin about reports that Ukraine was “prevented from negotiating a peace settlement by the former British prime minister acting on behalf of the Biden administration”.

The claim first surfaced after David Arahamiya, Ukraine’s chief negotiator in the peace talks, cited Mr Johnson’s surprise trip to Kyiv in 2022 among the reasons the talks stalled.

Mr Arahamiya told a journalist that while talks between Kyiv and Moscow were under way in Istanbul, Mr Johnson told leaders in Kyiv that Ukraine “shouldn’t sign anything with them at all – and let’s just fight”.

The former prime minister has previously vehemently denied the claims as “total nonsense” and “Russian propaganda”.

Mr Johnson said he merely “expressed concerns” about the nature of the potential agreement during a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

He added that he had assured Mr Zelensky of the UK’s unwavering support for Ukraine, stating that Britain would back Kyiv “a thousand per cent. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

08 Feb 24. Senate Republicans voted down a measure to increase funding for Ukraine on Wednesday, triggering a rush by Democrats to pass another aid bill as US President Joe Biden warned lawmakers risked abandoning Kyiv at a critical moment. The $118bn bipartisan spending bill that was rejected on Wednesday had tied support for Kyiv to a crackdown on immigration at the US-Mexico border. Republicans had abandoned it after Donald Trump trashed the deal. Its failure sparked a salvage effort by Democrats, with Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer proposing a “Plan B” to keep funding for Kyiv intact — raising hopes that further US backing for Ukraine could yet be agreed. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk on Thursday criticised Republican senators for their move, saying “shame on you”. “Dear Republican Senators of America. Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today,” Tusk wrote on X. Schumer’s new proposal cuts out border measures but leaves in place $60bn of funding for Ukraine, as well as support for Israel and Taiwan and billions of dollars in humanitarian aid for Gaza and other areas of the world. But it remained far from certain late on Wednesday whether the revised bill would be able to garner enough support to pass the upper chamber of Congress. The Senate voted 58-41 to clear one of several legislative hurdles to consider Schumer’s revised proposal on Wednesday afternoon, after eight Republican senators voted in favour of the plan. The bill will need 60 votes to advance. Schumer said the Senate would go home on Wednesday night “to give our Republican colleagues the night to figure themselves out” and reconvene for the next vote on Thursday afternoon. The possible breakthrough on Ukraine funding would be welcomed in Europe, amid mounting anxiety among Washington’s allies about a collapse in US funding for Kyiv’s effort to win back territory captured by Russia and withstand further attacks. Speaking to donors at a fundraiser in New York on Wednesday, Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “on the balls of his heels”. “And what are we doing? Stepping back?” the US president added. The US was the “essential nation”, he said. “If the United States steps out of events, what happens?” “What happens in the Middle East?” Biden said. “The Taiwan Strait? What happens in Asia? What happens with Ukraine?” Even if the Senate approves Schumer’s alternative plan, the Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson — a Trump ally — would need to agree to hold a vote in the lower chamber. He declined on Wednesday morning to give his view of Schumer’s proposal. “We will see what the Senate does,” he told reporters. “We are allowing the process to play out, and we will handle it as it is sent over [from the Senate].” “I have made very clear that you have to address these issues on their own merits, and Israel desperately needs the assistance, everybody knows that,” Johnson added. A separate proposal introduced in the House this week by Johnson to increase aid only for Israel failed in a vote on Tuesday night. As international attention focused on the Senate on Wednesday, the White House warned that it was not focusing on contingency plans to circumvent the legislature if it continues to block extra Ukraine funding. (Source: FT.com)

08 Feb 24. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Valeriy Zaluzhny as his top military commander saying it was time for “renewal” of the country’s armed forces. Zaluzhny will be replaced by Oleksandr Syrskyi, currently the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces. Zaluzhny’s removal follows months of tensions between the president and his top general over strategy and tactics. Reports surfaced 10 days ago that Zelenskyy had decided to change his top commander and had offered him a new role but Zaluzhny refused to resign. Writing on X after meeting Zaluzhny, Zelenskyy said he “thanked him for the two years of defending Ukraine. We discussed the renewal that the Armed Forces of Ukraine require. We also discussed who could be part of the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The time for such a renewal is now.” Zaluzhny posted on Facebook: “A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy. The tasks of 2022 are different from the tasks of 2024. Therefore, everyone must change and adapt to new realities as well.” He added a picture of him and the president shaking hands and smiling. “Starting today, a new management team will take over the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said, adding that he wanted “the vision of the war to be the same for our soldiers” serving on the frontline. Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov thanked Zaluzhny for his “achievements and victories”, saying that the general “had one of the most difficult tasks — to lead the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the Great War with Russia”. “But war does not remain the same. War changes and demands change,” he said, justifying the move to replace Zaluzhny. “Battles 2022, 2023 and 2024 are three different realities. 2024 will bring new changes for which we must be ready. New approaches, new strategies are needed.” Syrskyi, an experienced commander, is seen as a close ally of Zelenskyy, who has brought him along on several frontline visits and photo opportunities with the troops. However, Syrskyi is widely disliked among Ukraine’s rank-and-file soldiers, who say that he has made decisions that unnecessarily caused the loss of lives, weapons and ammunition. (Source: FT.com)

07 Feb 24. Ukraine-Russia war: over 500,000 killed or wounded in two years. The grim milestone of 500,000 killed and wounded in combat will have been passed during the second full year of the Ukraine-Russia war. As the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine nears the two-year anniversary since Moscow opted to initiate a large-scale invasion of its neighbour, front lines have become solidified and point towards more static, attritional combat through 2024 as military casualties pass the 500,000 mark. Gone are the notional battlegroup-level offensives of late-2023, which saw Ukraine attempt to breakthrough Russian lines in the east of the country after months of buildup, to little effect. Ukraine’s vaunted Western-backed combined arms counter-offensive failed to have the intended impact, with its forces opting to shift to smaller, dismounted, company-level attacks against Russian defences, which used artillery and deep minefields to repel the assaults. Such tactics negated any prospect of a breakthrough, given the depth of Russia’s defences along the frontline in eastern Ukraine, although Ukrainian marines reportedly still maintain a small bridgehead on the contested Russian bank of the Dnipro River in the southeast of the country. Current combat around Avdiivka has seen Russia’s continued attempt to take the town, which while holding relatively little strategic significance would yield a sizeable moral and tactical win. Russian forces have reportedly been using subterranean service tunnels in an attempt to bypass fixed defences. Through 2024, the war will become one of attrition, with daily skirmishing and tactical-level assaults punctuated by artillery and suicide drone barrages when stockpiles allow. (Source: army-technology.com)

08 Feb 24. The Ukrainians tailored their drone force to the battlefield circumstances, favoring large numbers of cheap mini-drones that were expendable, and generally shunning larger drones. This article is drawn from Teal Group’s World Military Unmanned Aerial Systems, 2023/2024 Market Profile & Forecast annual sector study. Ukraine currently has one of the world’s largest drone fleets due to its ongoing conflict with Russia. These drones are heavily concentrated at the low end of the spectrum, mainly off-the-shelf small quadcopters. At the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, there were five to six drone manufacturers, while by the late summer of 2023 there are several dozen firms manufacturing drones across a broad spectrum of types including tactical UAS and MALE UAS.

After the start of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War, NATO countries have made extensive drone donations to Ukraine. Norway donated 1,000 Teledyne FLIR Defense Black Hornet 3 micro-drone systems to Ukraine; the UK is also reported to have donated the Black Hornet as well. The UK has donated several types of drones to Ukraine include the Malloy Aeronautics T-150 heavy-lift drone. Ukraine has obtained the EOS C VTOL mini-UAS from Estonia. The “Come-Back-Alive” charity in Ukraine purchased 300 drones from Latvia in July 2023. Ukraine purchased about 20 Swarmly H6 and H10 Poseidon Mk II drones from Cyprus in 2022. The Czech Republic donated Orlik and Primoco drones to Ukraine in 2022. Denmark donated some Penguin drones to Ukraine in 2022. France delivered about 150 Delair VTOL drones to Ukraine in September 2023, apparently including their DT46.

The United States has delivered a variety of drones to Ukraine since 2022. The September 2022 aid package included the Scan Eagle and RQ-20 Puma. The US has also provided the FLIR Systems Black Hornet micro-UAS and the some Skydio mini-UAS. The US has discussed the provision of “heavy attack drones” that were expected to include either the MQ-1C Gray Eagle or MQ-9 Reaper; neither type had been provided as of the time this report was written. The United States has also provided a variety of loitering munitions including the AeroVironment Switchblade 300, Switchblade 600 and the Phoenix Ghost.

Ukraine purchased 33 Vector VTOL UAS systems from Quantum Systems in Germany in August 2022, followed by a second order for 105 in January 2023 and 300 more in May 2023. The German government already has agreed to pay €20 m towards these purchases. Each system costs about €180,000 ($195,600) each according to German press accounts.

The Ukrainians tailored their drone force to the battlefield circumstances, favoring large numbers of cheap mini-drones that were expendable, and generally shunning larger drones.

The full extent of Ukrainian drone procurement during the war is not known with any precision. Open-source intelligence sites such as Oryx have pegged Ukrainian drone losses at over 300, but these tallies only count drones spotted on social media; they do not count min-drones such as Mavic quadcopters. The British think tank RUSI stated in the summer of 2023 that Ukraine was losing 10,000 drones per month. When pressed on the issue, the RUSI analysts acknowledged that this was simply an estimate and was somewhere in the 5,000 to 10,000 range.

This figure includes a very large number of FPV kamikaze drones, which as has been noted earlier in this study, are not true drones but rather are loitering munitions based on drone technology. How large a fraction of Ukrainian drone inventory is the FPV drones? They are probably 80-90% of the “10,000 drones” cited by RUSI. In September 2023, the Ukrainian organization “Army of Drones” announced that in the week of 18-25 September, their drones knocked out 405 Russian targets. Aside from individual high-value targets such as tanks, artillery, and supply dumps, this included 68 Russian troops. Since multiple troops may have been hit by a single drone strike, we’ll lower the kill claim to 350 targets. Over the course of a month, this would translate to 1,400 targets hit.

In a press interview in late September 2023, Maria Berlinska, head of the “Aerial Intelligence Support Center” and the “Invisible Battalion” project outlined future Ukrainian drone requirements. According to Berlinska, Ukraine would like to manufacture 90,000 to 95,000 FPV drones per month, and 1,000-1,500 of the larger strike drones such as the Bober. The need for mini-quadcopter drones is around 20,000 to 25,000 drones, especially those with thermal imagers. The requirement for artillery spotter drones such as the Leleka is in the “thousands”. Large multi-copter drones for delivering mines and bombing Russian targets are needed in the “hundreds”.

Ukrainian monthly drone expenditure now is probably on the order of 7,500 FPV drones, 2,000 mini quadcopter drones and 50 fixed-wing mini- and small tactical drones and multi-copter drones. So annual expenditure is probably in the order of 90,000 FPV kamikaze drones, 25,000 mini-quadcopter drones and 1,000 to 1,500 larger drones. As mentioned above, the “Army of Drones” effort has an objective of 180,000 to 200,000 drones in 2023, of which probably 80% are expendable FPV kamikaze drones. (Source: Teal Group)

08 Feb 24. Russia’s Purchase Price for Iranian Shahed-136 Drones Revealed. A hacker group called the Prana Network broke into the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) email servers and grabbed data on the sale of Shahed drones to Russia.

The group says it exfiltrated about 10 gigabytes of data from a company known as Sahara Thunder which acts as a front for the IRGC facilitating sales of Iranian arms to Russia. Iranian-supplied Shahed kamikaze drones have been a feature of the Ukraine War since Russia’s 2022 invasion.

The UAV’s designer and manufacturer is believed to be Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center, an Iranian firm likewise operating under the IGRC umbrella. Its delta-winged Shahed-131/136 variants are believed to have a range of approximately 500 to 900 miles.

But according to the internal Sahara Thunder documents seized and published by the Prana group two days after the Guardian piece, that estimate is well short of the mark. The documents show that a single Shahed costs $375,000 to produce. The hack also revealed that Russia and Iran negotiated a lower per unit price for a bulk buy.

An agreement conveyed in the documents set forth a price of $193,000 per Shahed for a 6,000 unit buy. A smaller order of 2,000 units would yield a $290,000 per Shaded sticker price. The two countries reportedly agreed to the larger buy, netting the Iranian government $1.8bn from the sale after the addition of licensing fees.

The licensing fees cover local production of the drones in Russia. In January Russia announced that it had embarked on development of a less expensive version of the Shahed called the “Hawk” to be made entirely from off the shelf commercial components.

Payment for the Drones

In the published documents, it is indicated that Russia, at least partially, conducts its financial operations and payments with Iran in gold. Specifically, the organization Alabuga Machinery transferred 2,067,795 grams of gold bars to the Iranian proxy company Sahara Thunder in February 2023. Presumably, this was payment for services and goods.

The prospect of 6,000 Shaheds with which Russia could stage a mass attack on Ukraine’s infrastructure is a disturbing one. If the country is able to produce the Hawk in numbers, it is still more concerning. A November report from the Washington DC-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) which analyzed satellite imagery of a plant in Yelabuga, Russia (500 miles east of Moscow) found that significant progress was being made in standing up Hawk production.

A firm called JSC Alabuga is identified as the producer and as of the November report, it was not found on public U.S. or allied sanctions lists. Analysts differ as to whether Russia can produce the licensed Shaheds at a cost of approximately $50,000 per copy as it claims but its capacity to increase local production of the drones was positively projected by the ISIS report.

That potential explains the additional chunk of funds Russia paid in the $1.8 bn it handed over to Iran. However, the state of Russia’s economy and Iranian confidence in its ability to pay was likely reflected in the fact that some portion of the payments was provided in gold to Iran per the hacked documents.

If the cost information that Prana Network claims to have obtained is accurate, it represents a fascinating (if disturbing) insight into the lengths Russia is going to prosecute its war with cheap drones that aren’t as cheap as previously thought.

It also shows that while the Pentagon waivers on executing its Replicator drone initiative, Russia has moved out. (Source: UAS VISION/ Forbes; RBC Ukraine; X)

07 Feb 24. Help for Ukraine: Rheinmetall donates €100,000 to Olena Zelenska Foundation. The Düsseldorf-based technology group Rheinmetall is supporting the Olena Zelenska Foundation in Kyiv with a donation of 100,000 euros. The founder of the foundation, Olena Zelenska, wife of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, received a corresponding pledge at a meeting in Berlin. The foundation has been active since the beginning of the large-scale Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Together with foreign supporters, it helps affected people to cope with the consequences of the war. The charitable initiative supports projects in the areas of education, healthcare and humanitarian aid.

In the words of Olena Zelenksa, “I am delighted that Rheinmetall AG is now one of the foundation’s reliable partners. This industrial giant is a symbol of outstanding German quality. I am convinced that our humanitarian initiatives will be strengthened thanks to such a solid partnership. Together we will certainly rebuild our country and make Ukraine stronger.”

As Armin Papperger, chairman of the executive board of Rheinmetall AG, makes clear, “Russia’s war of aggression has destroyed countless homes, schools and hospitals in Ukraine. Besides the defence of the country, which we as a company are doing our utmost to support, we’ve got to make sure that the people who live there can get on with their lives. Children need to go to school, the sick need to be treated, families have to be fed. In making this donation, we at Rheinmetall are helping here, too. We stand with Ukraine!”

Regarding the military defence of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, Rheinmetall has emerged as the nation’s most important private-sector supplier of defence technology, furnishing an extensive array of products and services. In October 2023, for example, Rheinmetall established a joint venture company in Kyiv with Ukraine’s state-owned Ukrainian Defense Industry JSC, the former Ukroboronprom: Rheinmetall Ukrainian Defense Industry LLC.

In a first step, the new joint venture is servicing and repairing tactical vehicles, with plans to produce armoured vehicles in Ukraine at a later date, including the Fuchs/Fox wheeled armoured transport vehicle, the Lynx infantry fighting vehicle and the Panther main battle tank. Furthermore, Rheinmetall is a vital strategic partner of Ukraine, supplying the embattled country with ammunition, combat vehicles, air defence systems, military trucks and mobile field hospitals.

06 Feb 24. Turkey’s drone maker Baykar begins to build plant in Ukraine. Turkish defence company Baykar has started building a factory near Kyiv that will employ around 500 people and where it will manufacture either its TB2 or TB3 drone models, the company’s chief executive told Reuters.

Turkish-made Bayraktar drones have gained prominence globally after being used by Ukraine’s military to thwart Russian forces by destroying armoured vehicles and artillery systems.

Baykar has said it has signed export deals for its TB2 drone with 30 countries. These include Ukraine, Ethiopia, Libya and Azerbaijan since 2018, according to think tank SIPRI.

“Our factory is being built… we need about 12 months to finish construction and then we will move on to internal machinery, equipment, and organizational structure,” Baykar CEO Haluk Bayraktar said on the sidelines of the World Defense Show in Riyadh.

“The factory in Ukraine is a big one, we are planning to employ around 500 people,” he said.

Bayraktar noted that capacity would total around 120 units every year, but said it was still not clear whether production at the Ukrainian factory would focus on the TB2 or TB3 drone model.

Asked if security issues related to the ongoing conflict would pose a concern for the plant, he said that plans were “fully moving ahead” and that “nothing” could halt them.

Bayraktar also said the Istanbul-based firm’s plans to start production in Saudi Arabia in the next two years were on track.

The announcement follows an agreement in July to sell the Bayraktar Akinci, another kind of drone, to Saudi Arabia in what Baykar described as the biggest defence contract in Turkey’s history.

Other defence firms at the event are also announcing deals with Riyadh – on Monday U.S. weapons maker Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab signed agreements for Saudi Arabian companies to manufacture parts of its missile defense system.

Bayraktar said that, looking at the current year, the firm planned to double domestic production of the Akinci, which stood at 36 units in 2023, while TB2 output would stay unchanged at 230 units.

It also aims to produce the new models of the Kızılelma and the TB3 drones “in the tens,” he added. (Source: Google/Reuters)

06 Feb 24. Ukraine’s Zelenskiy orders creation of separate military force for drones. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday ordered the creation of a separate branch of Ukraine’s armed forces devoted to drones, weapons he and military officials say are crucial to fighting the war against Russia.

Zelenskiy signed a decree calling on the government and general staff of the armed forces to “work out issues on the creation within the Ukrainian armed forces of a separate force for drone systems”.

“I have just signed a decree which will launch the creation of a separate branch within our armed forces — a drone systems force,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

“This is not a question for the future. Rather, it must provide concrete results in the very near future. This year must be decisive in a great many aspects. And clearly on the battlefield. Drone systems have shown their effectiveness on land, in the skies and on the seas.”

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Minister for Digital Transformation, said the separate branch would provide “a powerful impetus” to the military’s technological development.

In the past year, he said, drones had “fundamentally changed the situation on the battlefield. They are effective in stopping Russian attacks and back up counterattacks by Ukraine’s armed forces.”

According to Zelenskiy’s decree, the results of the study would be submitted to the policy-making National Security and Defence Council.

Zelenskiy has pointed to drones, and production domestically and with partner nations, as a key element in conducting the war against Russia since Moscow’s invasion two years ago this month.

In December, the president pledged that Ukraine would produce a m drones in 2024.

Government officials have said that Ukraine aims to produce tens of thousands of drones every month. No figures on current production are available, but since the start of the war, drone production has shot up, with dozens of companies developing and producing different models.

The commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, whose position is in question in view of differences with the president, said in a comment for CNN last week that drones were critical for the conduct of the war.

“Crucially, it is these unmanned systems – such as drones – along with other types of advanced weapons, that provide the best way for Ukraine to avoid being drawn into a positional war, where we do not possess the advantage,” Zaluzhnyi wrote. (Source: Reuters)

07 Feb 24. Russia launches missile attack on Ukrainian cities – Ukraine’s air force. Russia launched several waves of missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities during Wednesday morning rush hours, Ukrainian officials said, with falling debris from the downed weapons cutting off electricity to parts of the capital.

Several waves of blasts rocked Kyiv during the attack, the first in February, with air defence systems engaged in destroying the missiles, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on the Telegram messaging app.

At least two people were injured in Dniprovskyi district that lies along the Dnipro River, he added.

All of Ukraine was under air raid alert from around 6 a.m. (0400 GMT), with Ukraine’s Air Force warning on Telegram of a risk of Russian missile attacks across the country.

The first blasts were heard just before 7 a.m. in Kyiv.

“I was scared when air alerts announced and we rushed here,” Tetyana, 49, told Reuters in a bomb shelter in central Kyiv, wile hugging her two-year-old granddaughter and a small dog.

“I hope they will shoot down all of them. I pray for our air defence.”

The scale of the attack, which lasted several hours, was not immediately known. There was no immediate response from Russia’s defence ministry to Reuters’ request to comment.

Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said Dniprovskyi district was left partially without electricity. Klitschko said falling debris from a downed Russian missile damaged some power lines.

Oleh Synehubov, governor of the Kharkiv region in Ukraine’s northeast, said Russian missiles struck non-residential infrastructure in Kharkiv city, the administrative centre of the region. (Source: Reuters)

05 Feb 24. Netherlands halts F-16 sale to US firm, will send to Ukraine instead. The Netherlands scrapped plans to sell six F-16 fighter jets to a U.S. company and will prepare the planes for delivery to Ukraine instead, according to the Dutch Defence Ministry.

The agreement increases the number of Dutch aircraft that will be handed over to the embattled country to 24, it said.

The Dutch had been negotiating with Draken International, a Lakeland, Florida-based provider of adversarial training services to the U.S. Air Force, after a deal to sell the company 12 F-16s fell through last year. The two parties ended talks on a new agreement for six F-16s after they concluded that the sale and delivery of the aircraft won’t happen in the short term, the Netherlands said in a statement.

The Netherlands, together with Denmark, is leading a European effort to provide Ukraine with F-16 capabilities. In November it sent the first of 18 aircraft to Romania for pilot training. The planned transfer of jets will replace losses Ukraine has suffered in its war with Russia, as well as provide more powerful radar and integration with NATO-standard weapon systems.

“Ukraine’s aerial superiority is essential for countering Russian aggression,” Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren said in a post on X Monday.

The F-16s being prepared for handover to Ukraine are still in use by the Netherlands Royal Air Force, Defence Ministry spokesman Mark van de Beek told Defense News. The 18 aircraft being provided for training will remain property of the Netherlands. Of those aircraft, five are already in Romania, with the remainder to follow by the end of June, Van de Beek said.

The Dutch had agreed in 2021 to sell 12 F-16s to Draken for training use in the U.S., with an option for another 28 aircraft. That deal fell apart following a “disagreement on the state of maintenance” of the jets at time of handover, the government reported in June.

The F-16s will help Ukraine supress Russian air defense systems and may ease the strain on the country’s own air defenses by intercepting cruise missiles, analysts say. Russia has so far enjoyed a decisive advantage in radar and air-to-air missile capabilities, and F-16s will be an upgrade from Ukraine’s older jets, according to analysts at the Atlantic Council.

The Dutch fleet that once totaled 138 F-16s received a €750 m midlife update between 1998 and 2002 that increased capabilities to equivalent of the Block 50/52 upgrade that first became operational with the U.S. Air Force in 1994. Those aircraft are equipped with the HARM radar targeting system.

The Netherlands acquired the F-35 to replace its fleet of F-16s. The Defence Ministry says it will stop operating the F-16 by October and it will no longer have capacity to maintain the remaining older jets in flying condition after September.

The Dutch government has insisted a number of conditions are met before it hands over the F-16s to Ukraine, including having airfields suitable to operate the fighter and sufficient trained personnel for maintenance.

(Source: Defense News)

05 Feb 24. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is considering a sweeping “reset” of Ukraine’s military and civilian leadership in an attempt to reinvigorate its war effort nearly two years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The Ukrainian president on Sunday evening confirmed reporting by the Financial Times last week and suggested that he was not only seeking to replace General Valery Zaluzhny, the popular commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, but also top government officials. “Definitely a reset, a new beginning is necessary,” Zelenskyy told Italy’s Rai News. “I have something serious in mind, which is not about a single person but about the direction of the country’s leadership,” he said when asked whether he would dismiss Zaluzhny. He did not specify who else he would replace. Zaluzhny has not commented on the report of his ousting and Zelenskyy’s latest remarks. But he has posted two selfie photos to his Facebook page with his chief of staff. “We still have a very difficult path ahead, but we can be sure that we will never feel shame,” Zaluzhny wrote alongside the photo he posted on Monday. Zelenskyy’s remarks follow a week of speculation in Kyiv about the fate of Zaluzhny, with whom the president has had an increasingly strained relationship for more than a year. Tensions spilled out in the open in November when Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive failed to achieve its goals of retaking lost territory and cutting off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. Zaluzhny at the time said the war had reached a “stalemate”, leading the president to castigate him for using the term. But on Sunday evening, Zelenskyy seemed to have come to the same conclusion as his top general. “As far as the war on the ground is concerned there is a stalemate, it’s a fact, [because] there have been delays in equipment and delays mean mistakes,” Zelenskyy said. Last week Zelenskyy met Zaluzhny in a bid to mend ties, but the talks grew heated over the contentious issue of mobilisation. Zelenskyy has questioned the need to conscript 500,000 new troops, which Zaluzhny allegedly called for, a figure the general later denied having floated. A draft bill on the issue continues to be hotly debated in Ukraine’s parliament. Before the meeting ended, Zelenskyy informed the general that he planned to replace him, according to four people with knowledge of the meeting. Two of the people said Zelenskyy had made clear to Zaluzhny that regardless of whether he took on a new role, he would be removed from his current position. The two people said that Zelenskyy had offered Zaluzhny other jobs, such as leading the country’s National Security and Defense Council or the role of ambassador in the UK, but Zaluzhny declined them. In an opinion piece for CNN on Thursday, the general complained about “the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures”. The change of command would come at a critical juncture in the war, as Russia started the year with unprecedented barrages aimed at overpowering Ukraine’s air defences, and with Ukrainian forces rationing weaponry, which allies have struggled to supply at the rate needed on the battlefield. Kyiv is still awaiting a vital $60bn in military and financial assistance from the US. Last week the EU agreed a €50bn four-year financial aid package, but the bloc is still quarrelling about military funding. Ukraine’s western partners are nervous about the looming shake-up, according to two western officials from G7 nations whose governments provide arms to Ukraine. One said they were apprehensive because of Zaluzhny’s popularity among Ukraine’s rank-and-file soldiers as well as the general population, which could lead to a backlash when unity is crucial. It remains unclear who would replace Zaluzhny, but the four people with knowledge of the matter told the FT that leading candidates were Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, and Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the country’s military intelligence directorate, the GUR. Syrsky, 58, an experienced commander, is seen as a close ally of Zelenskyy who has brought him along on several frontline visits and photo opportunities with the troops. However, Syrsky is widely disliked among Ukraine’s rank-and-file soldiers, who say that he has made decisions that unnecessarily caused the loss of previous weapons and ammunition, as well as lives. Budanov, 38, does not have the experience of Zaluzhny and Syrsky as an army commander, but has been effective in his role of leading the GUR and revitalising the agency, which long played second fiddle to Ukraine’s much larger domestic security service, the SBU. However, Budanov’s famously brazen tactics have put Kyiv’s western partners on edge. “He makes us nervous,” one of the western officials said. Recommended The Big Read The surprising resilience of the Russian economy But two people close to Syrsky and Budanov told the FT last week that they were uninterested in the post, preferring to remain in their current roles. Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major-general and military strategist, warned against the perception of instability that Zaluzhny’s ousting could generate. “There may be some, particularly in the US Congress, who could exploit a change in the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, and any public fallout afterwards, as additional evidence for why they shouldn’t support further packages of US assistance for Ukraine,” Ryan wrote on his blog. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CBS on Sunday that the White House had been notified by Kyiv of the looming changes but would not weigh in “one way or another”. Event details and information The Global Boardroom: (Source: FT.com)

01 Feb 24. Ukraine MoD claims USV destroyed a Russian missile corvette. The Ukrainian MoD has posted a video on social media in which it claims a defence intelligence unit destroyed a missile corvette in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet with an uncrewed surface vessel (USV). On the morning of 1 February 2024, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) posted a video on the social media website X, formerly Twitter, depicting what appears to be an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) impacting with a warship.

“As a result of a number of direct hits to the hull, the corvette was damaged, rolled to the stern, and sank,” the MoD summarised in its post.

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate claims that soldiers in a special unit within its ranks, known as ‘Group 13’, “destroyed the missile ship ‘Ivanovets’ of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.”

The Russian ship was said to be patrolling the Black Sea near Lake Donuzlav near occupied Crimea.

“According to preliminary information, the search and rescue operation of the Russian occupiers on the Donuzlav was not successful,” Ukrainian defence intelligence stated.

While there has been a flurry of discussion and speculation online in response to the incident, Western officials say it was highly likely that Ukrainian USVs had struck the Russian corvette.

(Source: naval-technology.com)

07 Feb 24. Ukrainian Special Forces Destroyed A Surveillance Base In The Black Sea. Ukraine’s special forces executed a nighttime raid on a Russian-controlled mining platform in the Black Sea, a strategic move aimed at disrupting Moscow’s drone operations in the area. The operation, dubbed “Citadel,” was announced by Ukraine on Tuesday, marking a significant effort to undermine Russian surveillance and control over the Black Sea. The raid involved Ukrainian troops boarding the platform, seizing equipment, and planting explosives, resulting in the destruction of the facility’s mast and antenna.

The mining platform, located near the Crimean peninsula—a region occupied by Russia since 2014—played a crucial role in enhancing Moscow’s drone capabilities and monitoring maritime activities in the Black Sea. The successful operation signifies Ukraine’s ongoing strategy to target Russian assets in the region, demonstrating Kyiv’s resilience and tactical ingenuity. This action is part of a broader campaign by Ukrainian forces to challenge Russian dominance in the Black Sea, showcasing Ukraine’s ability to conduct sophisticated operations despite its limited naval capabilities. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company

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NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

Protek Selected By Dutch Armed Forces

PARLIAMENTARY QUESTIONS

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE