NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Jan 12.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OSKIL-KREMINNA: Ukrainian Commander of Ground Forces admitted that the operational situation along the eastern frontlines remains difficult, with growing indications of Russian preparations for additional assaults in coming days
AID: The European Commission is reportedly considering agreeing to various concessions to gain Hungary’s support for EUR 50 billion in aid to Ukraine, which would involve annual audits over EU financial support
AID: The UK Prime Minister is in Kyiv, where a security agreement will be signed between London and Kyiv; pledges to increase UK aid to Ukraine in 2024 underpin the UK’s long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine
FORECAST: Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) estimates that Russia has deployed 462,000 military personnel in Ukraine, which it claims represents the entire ground component of the Russian military
BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage from 11 January indicates that Russian forces have made marginal progress along the railway line north-east of Vesele, located roughly 13 miles (21km) north-east of Bakhmut. Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated on 11 January that the operational situation in the east remains ‘difficult’, and that Russian forces are preparing for fresh offensives in the area north-east of Bakhmut, near Siversk (Donetsk oblast), and are moving forward ‘storm’ units and massing assault companies. Otherwise, there have been few developments along the frontline west and south of Bakhmut over the last 24 hours.
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
KHERSON: On 11 January, Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the number of ‘Storm Z’ assault units has decreased on the Kherson frontline, with an attendant increase in nominally more ‘elite’ naval infantry and airborne units. These marines and VDV airborne units reportedly do not conduct the same rate of attritional frontal assaults than Storm-Z units. Russian units are nevertheless taking very high casualty rates on this axis, with Humenyuk estimating that during assaults of between 10-15 Russian troops, these units can take 50% casualties, though this cannot be confirmed. Humenyuk also reiterated that extensive command issues continue to undermine their efforts to dislodge Ukraine’s bridgehead on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnieper.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 11 January, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Ukrainian Commander of Ground Forces, admitted that the operational situation along the Oskil-Kreminna frontline remains difficult. Syrksyi explained that Russian forces have intensified operations in the Serebrianske forest area, south-west of Kreminna and near Synkivka, located around five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. On 11 January, a Ukrainian military reporter said that the Russian command has transferred 1,000 and 1,200 military personnel to the Synkivka sector over the past week, where Russian forces have incurred significant losses.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: According to the Syrskyi, Russian forces aim to isolate Kupiansk. The capture of Kupiansk would prove a considerable operational objective for the Russian command as it would push Ukrainian forces behind the Oskil River, creating opportunities for a renewed offensive push along the Oskil-Kreminna frontline. However, Ukrainian forces continue to hold their positions, and there are no indications that Russian forces are likely to break through Ukrainian defences.
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: On 11 January, Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin announced that have received evidence that Russia used North Korean-provided missiles to strike Kharkiv on 2 January. The US recently alleged that North Korea has provided Russia with KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), which have allegedly been used to target several Ukrainian cities.
STRIKES: On 11 January, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Vladimir Mikheychik, the head of the Russian state-owned airline 224th Flight Unit, for his involvement in Moscow’s procurement of North Korean ballistic missiles. However, such sanctions and future restrictions are unlikely to curb Moscow’s access to North Korea’s ballistic missiles, or other military equipment and munitions. On 10 January, South Korea assessed that North Korea would possibly provide Russia with a new type of close-range ballistic missile (CRBM) to use in Ukraine. A steady supply of ballistic missiles by Pyongyang would likely allow Moscow to increase the frequency of its ballistic missile strikes, which remain highly difficult to counter for Ukrainian air defences.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

AID: The Financial Times reported on 11 January that the EU is considering conceding to some of Hungary’s demands to secure a long-term EUR 50 billion (USD 54.8 billion) aid package for Ukraine. Three unspecified officials familiar with the matter said that the European Commission is open to reviewing the four-year aid package in 2025, when it will evaluate whether Kyiv still needs the funding and if it has met the requirements to receive the aid. This would effectively allow Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán the chance to veto its continuation; Orbán could realistically ask for more concessions or fabricate other demands ahead of a hypothetical future review.
AID: The European Commission is also reportedly considering allowing annual audits of the aid and the introduction of an ‘emergency break clause’. This would allow any country to voice serious concerns about payments to Ukraine at a summit of EU leaders. However, it would not give Hungary an additional opportunity to veto the funding. An unnamed senior Hungarian official said there is a realistic to likely possibility that these concessions would result in Orbán lifting his veto. While such compromises could increase the likelihood of the aid being approved in the coming weeks, the concessions would almost certainly render the continued provision of Ukraine aid from the bloc less certain in the long term.
AID: Earlier on 12 January during his visit to Kyiv, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that London will provide GBP 2.5 billion (USD 3.18 billion) of military aid to Ukraine over the coming year. At least GBP 200 million (USD 255 million) will be spent on procuring and producing thousands of military drones for Ukraine, including surveillance, long-range strike and sea drones. The UK government claimed it will be the largest delivery of drones to Ukraine from any nation; most of the drones are expected to be manufactured in the UK.
AID: As per a statement from the UK government, Sunak and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will sign an agreement on UK-Ukraine security co-operation later on 12 January in Kyiv. The agreement formalises a range of support London has and will continue to provide for Ukraine’s security, including intelligence sharing, cyber security, defence industrial co-operation, among other commitments. It also binds the UK to consult with Ukraine if Russia were ever to attack again and provide defence assistance. The announcements almost certainly aim to convey London’s long-term support for Kyiv, as well as bolster Ukraine’s strike capabilities in the nearer term. However, it remains notable that Sunak did not commit to multi-year spending pledges for Ukraine – possibly due to the upcoming UK election expected at the end of 2024.
BORDERS: On 11 January, Rafał Mekler, an organiser of protests along the Polish-Ukrainian border, stated that Polish carriers plan to block the Medyka-Shehyni checkpoint again. Mekler showed documents indicating that a strike at this crossing point will begin on 0900hrs (local time) on 15 January until 15 March. Earlier on 12 January, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) said the queue of vehicles at the Medyka-Shehyni checkpoint was longer than at three other blocked crossings: Yahodyn-Dorohusk, Rava-Ruska-Hrebenne and Krakivets-Korczowa. On 6 January, Polish farmers suspended protests at the Medyka-Shehyni crossing after reaching an agreement with the government. While efforts by Warsaw and Kyiv to resolve the dispute are expected to continue. further protest action will likely sustain supply chain disruption.

FORECAST

OFFENSIVES: On 11 January, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) Deputy Chief, Vadym Skibitskyi, stated that Russia has deployed 462,000 military personnel in Ukraine, which he claimed represents the entire ground component of the Russian military. While this cannot be confirmed, it remains highly likely that the vast majority of Russia’s ground forces are committed to Ukraine, providing little to no capability to respond to or create new fronts outside of Ukraine.

Skibitskyi also notably reported that Russian units are normally staffed at between 92-95% strength, and that once a unit’s intended strength drops below 50%, it is withdrawn to rear areas for reconstitution. Despite the high casualties Russian forces are sustaining across Ukraine, including attritional frontal assaults around Avdiivka, Skibitskyi stated that the overall size of Russia’s commitment in Ukraine means it is able to conduct troop rotations throughout the theatre. This is borne out by the fact that Russian forces maintain the initiative across eastern and southern Ukraine, and are maintaining a creeping offensive across multiple axes of advance.

Similarly, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, stated on 11 January that Russia has successfully replenished Russian forces and added more than 500,000 personnel to the military in 2023. While we cannot confirm these numbers, it is highly likely that Russia is indeed able to replace losses to maintain its current operations. As we have previously assessed, ongoing crypto-mobilisation efforts mean that Russian commanders likely deem the current rates of attrition to be broadly sustainable at present. However, the quality of these newly raised troops remains broadly poor, limiting the scope for major mechanised advances or operationally significant victories in the short term. As such, Russian forces will likely remain reliant upon infantry-dominated attritional frontal assaults, which can nevertheless achieve tactical results by grinding forward and wearing down the Ukrainian defenders.

However, Russia’s attritional strategy remains contingent upon a constant stream of replacements, equipment and ammunition. Skibitskyi also claimed on 11 January that Russia’s military-industrial production is currently unable to meet the operational needs of the Russian military. In particular he claimed that Russia can produce around two million rounds of 122mm and 152mm artillery ammunition per year. He anticipates this production rate to increase in 2024, but GUR head Kyrylo Budanov also stated on 11 January that the quality of Russian shells is deteriorating.

Kyiv estimates that Russia experienced a 500,000 shell deficit in 2023, leading to Russian efforts to acquire shells from other partners, namely North Korea and Iran. With reports indicating that Russia is in the process of acquiring ballistic missiles and other munitions from both North Korea and Iran, this reliance is set to continue, despite expansions of Russia’s domestic military production. Ultimately, however, Russia’s economy is more geared towards outproducing Ukraine’s military production in the medium-to-long term, given the latter will remain heavily reliant upon Western imports for the foreseeable future. As such, President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated on 11 January that the war cannot be allowed to freeze, as his would provide Moscow with an opportunity to reconstitute its armed forces for a ‘powerful counter-offensive’ in the future.

Jan 11.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

STRIKES: Russian forces hit the Park Hotel in central Kharkiv; they claim that foreign fighters were staying at the site; further sporadic attacks on hotels in eastern Ukraine remain likely given the pattern of Russian claims to target ‘mercenaries’
NORTH KOREA: South Korea’s defence minister has claimed that North Korea will possibly provide Russia with a new type of close-range ballistic missile (CRBM) to use in Ukraine
STRATEGY: The US is likely to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a clearer war plan at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos next week amid growing international pressure for a 2024 strategy
FORECAST: The EU announced that member states’ ambassadors approved a ‘partial negotiating mandate’ on a proposal to set up a new tool to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction and modernisation
BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage published on 10 January indicates that Russian forces have advanced modestly south-west of Bakhmut, north of Klishchiivka, around six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut. Russian forces are slowly building momentum west of Bakhmut, though progress remains very slow. Weather conditions are exacerbating the situation, with a spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating on this front stating on 10 January that freezing conditions are resulting in less intensive infantry assaults. However, as temperatures continue to drop during the current cold snap, the ground will freeze; this will improve conditions for manoeuvre operations. However, this is likely to have a limited impact on Russian offensive operations given their widespread reliance on dismounted infantry assaults.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 10 January shows that Russian forces advanced north-east of Novomykhailivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Donetsk City. On 9 and 10 January, several Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced south of the settlement. Overall, Russian forces’ progress remains slow and highly costly. However, they are making modest and incremental gains at various points along the Donetsk front.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 10 January, a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defences in the Serbriaiske forest area to the south-west of Kreminna (Luhansk oblast). They claimed that Russian troops advanced nearly two miles (3km) in the sector. While various sources have reported an uptick in positional fighting in the sector over the past few days, the milblogger’s claims remain visually unconfirmed. Meanwhile, on 10 January, Ukraine’s 14th Mechanised Brigade spokesperson stated that Russia transferred personnel and equipment towards Kupinsk, where offensive operations will likely intensify in the coming days.
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its air defences intercepted three drones over Kaluga, Rostov and Tula oblasts (all Russia) early on 11 January. Vladislav Shapsh, the governor of Kaluga, stated that a petrol station was damaged in the oblast. Similar attacks against oil facilities have been reported in recent days, underscoring Kyiv’s strategy of degrading Russian military logistics.
STRIKES: Late on 10 January, Russia launched two S-300 missiles from Belgorod oblast against Kharkiv, hitting a hotel. The Ukrainian authorities stated that the projectiles struck the Park Hotel in the centre of Kharkiv, injuring 13 people. However, a prominent Russian milblogger claimed on 11 January that the hotel housed foreign pro-Ukrainian fighters, including those fighting for the Ukrainian International Foreign Legion. Such claims remain unverified. Russian forces have previously claimed that foreign ‘mercenaries’ have stayed in other hotels which they have struck. As such, sporadic attacks against hospitality venues in eastern Ukraine remain likely in the coming months.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

NORTH KOREA: On 10 January, South Korea’s defence minister, Shin Won-sik, claimed that North Korea will possibly provide Russia with a new type of close-range ballistic missile (CRBM) to use in Ukraine. US intelligence agencies claim that North Korea has already provided Russia with KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), which have allegedly been used to target several Ukrainian cities in recent weeks; Russia denied these allegations at a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting on 10 January. Shin stated that Moscow is suspected of providing technological assistance to Pyongyang in return for the missiles.
NORTH KOREA: As part of this assistance, Russia is reportedly helping to develop North Korea’s spy satellite programme. While the claims cannot be confirmed, they underscore growing defence co-operation between Pyongyang and Moscow, as well as Russia’s efforts to turn to hostile regimes for military aid. For further analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 5 January 2024.
BLACK SEA: Earlier on 11 January, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the establishment of a task force to counter the threat of naval mines in the Black Sea. An unspecified NATO source reportedly told Radio Free Europe (RFE/RFL) that the agreement focuses on demining in the three countries’ territorial waters, and possibly their exclusive economic zones (EEZ).
BLACK SEA: A press release by the Romanian Ministry of Defence (MoD) revealed that NATO’s Standing Naval Groups and non-littoral allies will be able to participate in the Mine Countermeasures (MCM) Black Sea’s activities. Naval mines pose a persistent threat to shipping in western Black Sea waters; a step-up in co-ordination will help to mitigate this threat. Nevertheless, demining is a long-term project; the threat posed by mines will persist in the coming years. However, the establishment of a successful taskforce to combat the threat of mines in the region would possibly increase shipowners’ confidence in sailing to and from Ukraine in the longer term.
STRATEGY: On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that the US is likely to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a clearer war plan at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos (Switzerland) next week. Unspecified insiders familiar with the matter claimed that US National Security advisor Jake Sullivan will likely raise the matter on the sidelines of the event. Other US officials are also likely to continue emphasising the need for a sharpened strategy in the coming weeks. Unspecified US officials are reportedly concerned that differences between Zelensky and the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, are impeding efforts to develop a new strategy for 2024 (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 4 December 2023).
STRATEGY: Ukraine’s military is reportedly considering a range of options as part of its war planning for 2024. While no further information has been provided on these options, Zelensky reiterated earlier on 11 January that a temporary pause in fighting would only benefit Russia, which would use the cessation of hostilities to rearm and regroup. Zelensky also claimed that Russia has a large deficit of drones and artillery and is therefore seeking assistance from other hostile regimes, underscoring that now is not the time to stop fighting. Ultimately, a clearer war strategy would possibly convince Ukraine-sceptic US Republicans to vote in favour of further aid for Kyiv if the plans present defined and tangible aims. It would possibly also enable the US and other allies to finetune what aid is needed for such strategies in the longer term.
MOBILISATION: Ukrainian Parliamentary Leader of the ruling Servant of the People Party Davyd Arakhamia confirmed earlier on 11 January that the draft bill on reforming mobilisation has been returned to the government, after the parliament proposed undisclosed revisions. We will continue to monitor the parliamentary process of the bill in the coming days and weeks.
AID: The NATO-Ukraine Council met on 10 January and pledged to bolster Ukraine’s air defences. The military bloc’s allies emphasised that they will continue to provide Kyiv with major military, economic and humanitarian assistance. Many unspecified NATO partners also outlined plans to provide further significant capabilities this year, underscoring the alliance’s continued support for Ukraine.

FORECAST

RECONSTRUCTION: The EU announced on 10 January that member states’ ambassadors approved a ‘partial negotiating mandate’ on a proposal to set up a new tool to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction and modernisation. The mechanism also seeks to support Kyiv’s efforts to carry out reforms as part of its EU accession path.

The aim is to pool the bloc’s Ukraine aid budget into a single tool, so as to provide coherent, predictable and flexible long-term support for 2024-27. According to the European Council (EC)’s statement, the commission has proposed a total budget of around EUR 50 bn (USD 55 bn), comprised of EUR 17 bn (USD 18.6 bn) in grants and EUR 33 bn (USD 36.2 bn) in loans. However, the mandate does not finalise budget-related issues such as the overall size of the instrument and the share of grants and loans, which will depend on the final outcome of negotiations. It comes after Hungary vetoed the allocation of EUR 50 bn in macro-economic financing to Ukraine in mid-December 2023 (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 15 December 2023).

Reports from 10 January indicate that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is seeking to convince her Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán to unlock aid for Ukraine in backchannel talks. Progress on this matter would possibly pave the way for Orbán’s Fidesz party to join the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party in the European Parliament. Meloni is also pushing Orbán to change his stance on Ukraine’s EU membership ambitions and for a reset in Budapest-Kyiv relations. While it is uncertain if these efforts will be successful, it is unlikely that Budapest will radically change its position, particularly ahead of its accession as the European Council chair in July.

Separately, on 10 January, the Italian defence minister, Guido Crosetto, called for military support for Ukraine to be accompanied with more engagement to end the war. He stated that Rome would seek a ‘dual-track strategy’ with military support for Kyiv to be coupled with more efforts towards pursuing a negotiated settlement. It is uncertain when (or if) this would be applied, or whether it has the approval of Rome (which is unlikely to change its stance on Ukraine significantly in the short term). The Italian parliament’s lower house voted in favour of prolonging defence assistance for Ukraine on 10 January. Crosetto also revealed that the government had greenlit Italy’s eighth military aid package for Ukraine.

Ukraine has consistently expressed its opposition to holding direct negotiations with Russia to end the war; as such, Italy’s proposed linkage between aid and negotiations marks a notable precedent. Should Rome proceed with this strategy, it would possibly influence other European countries to follow suit, pressurising Kyiv to enter into unwanted negotiations. However, we assess that such a stance is highly unlikely to be adopted by several of Ukraine’s staunchest partners (such as the Baltic states).

*Black Sea: Naval mines will continue posing long-term risk despite agreement on demining task force. Earlier on 11 January, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the establishment of a task force to counter the threat of naval mines in the Black Sea. An unspecified NATO source reportedly told Radio Free Europe (RFE/RFL) that the agreement focuses on demining in the three countries’ territorial waters, and possibly their exclusive economic zones (EEZ). A press release by the Romanian Ministry of Defence (MoD) revealed that NATO’s Standing Naval Groups and non-littoral allies will be able to participate in the Mine Countermeasures (MCM) Black Sea’s activities. Naval mines pose a persistent threat to shipping in western Black Sea waters; a step-up in co-ordination will help to mitigate this threat. Nevertheless, demining is a long-term project; the threat posed by mines will persist in the coming years.

Jan 10.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

DRONES: There are growing indications that Russia is deploying new and modernised drones in Ukraine, including jet-powered Shahed-238 UAV, which could increase the lethality of drone attacks across Ukraine given its heavier payload
STRIKES: Ukraine’s Air Force has acknowledged that following Russia’s recent large-scale attacks, Ukraine may soon experience a shortage of air defence missiles, indicating potential increases in risk for major Ukrainian cities
NEGOTIATIONS: Bloomberg reported that a secret meeting took place on 16 December 2023 in Saudi Arabia between Ukraine, its G7 allies and a small group of Global South countries, but it achieved few results
FORECAST: Several European leaders are seeking to strengthen military aid commitments to Ukraine in 2024, including the UK and Germany, ahead of key European Council summit in February
BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
DRONES: Russian development of drones is continuing, with evidence in recent days indicating the deployment of new Iranian-designed Shahed-238 and -107 drones in Ukraine. Wreckages of drones in Ukraine confirmed on 8 January that Russia has deployed the first jet-powered Shahed-238 drone (Russian designation Geran-3). In contrast to the earlier propeller-engined Shahed-136 from which it is based, the new jet-powered Shahed-238 is understood to have a greater range and heavier payload. Russian sources claim the new -238 drone can travel around 500 kilometres per hour (compared to the -136’s 200 kilometres per hour), and carry warheads of up to 300kg (compared to 50kg on the -136). It remains unclear how many Shahed-238s have been produced, but they are likely to be more expensive than the -136.
DRONES: Sky News reported earlier on 10 January that Russia may have acquired a ‘few units’ of the Iranian-produced Shahed-107, which is likely fitted with novel technology that seeks out high-value battlefield targets, such as British and US-provided multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS). The -107 reportedly has a range of over 930 miles (1,500km). While this isn’t confirmed, it is clear that both Russia and Iran are continuing to innovate and modernise UAVs for use on the battlefield, which will continue to pose additional strains on Ukrainian air defences in the coming months. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s technology minister Mykahilo Fedorov stated on 9 January that Ukraine’s own production of UAVs has ramped up to such an extent that Kyiv’s current drone procurement budget is not enough to purchase all drones currently being produced. Federov stated that there are now almost 200 firms making drones in Ukraine.
KHERSON: On 9 January, various Russian sources reported on enduring command and control issues plaguing the Dnepr Grouping of Forces, which is operating on the left (east) bank of the Dnieper River. The sources claimed that the commander of the grouping, Mikhail Teplinsky, who is also the commander of Russia’s airborne (VDV) forces, has been unable to rectify extensive issues since assuming command late last year. Russian forces operating in the area are reportedly still suffering from poor coordination, with commanders taking hours to approve strikes and requiring visual confirmation of targets before orders are given, which is likely delaying counter-battery operations in particular.
KHERSON: Some Russian sources have also claimed that their forces do not retain sufficient electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to deal with the large numbers of Ukrainian drones in the area, and that they are unable to target Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters. Nevertheless, Russian sources did claim that the rate of attritional assaults has reduced since Teplinsky took command, likely reflecting efforts to conserve manpower. However, due to enduring command and control issues, Russian forces are still unable to repulse Ukrainian forces from their beachheads on the left bank of the river.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: On 9 January, Yuriy Ihnat, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, acknowledged that following Russia’s recent large-scale attacks, Ukraine may soon experience a shortage of air defence missiles. While he downplayed recent comments made by the New York Times that Ukraine will soon experience a shortage of US Patriot air defence missiles, he did acknowledge Ukraine’s dependence on Western defence supplies. Ihnat explained that while Ukraine has been rationing air defence equipment and supplies, the latest Russian strikes have forced Ukraine to use a significant amount of its ammunition stockpiles – underscoring potential growing risks to major Ukrainian cities during future mass missile strikes, if Russia retains sufficient missiles to continue attacks in the short term.
STRIKES: Russian Oryol Oblast Governor Andrey Klychkov reported that several drones hit an oil depot and the building of a local energy provider on 9 January. The facilities were located in the south-western parts of the city of Oryol. On 8 January, Russian media reported explosions on the railway tracks by an oil depot near the Russian city of Nizhny Tagil (Sverdlovsk Oblast). Local Telegram channels reported that two explosive devices were found near the explosion site.
STRIKES: On 1 December, Ukrainska Pravda, quoting sources within the Ukrainian intelligence service, reported that Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) orchestrated the explosion of the Baikal-Amur railway line in Russia’s far eastern Buryatia Republic. The railway is a key Russian logistics artery. While Kyiv typically does not comment on such operations, its intelligence services have likely intensified sabotage operations within Russia over the past months. Such attacks illustrate the SBU’s ability to carry out sabotage operations deep into Russian territory, likely with the assistance of local pro-Ukrainian partisan groups, to disrupt Russian military logistics and supply chains.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences intercepted two Ukrainian drones early on 10 January over Saratov and Voronezh oblasts.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

POLLING: According to polling released on 9 January by the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center (NORC), most Russians (63%) support Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine. Notably, 64% of Russians surveyed perceive the conflict as a civilisational struggle between Russia and the West, aligning with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric and partial justification for the war. Just over half of respondents (56%) said that Russia’s military action will impact their vote in the March presidential elections. The NORC claimed that the primary factor driving support is the perception of Putin confronting perceived threats from NATO and the West.
POLLING: Two-thirds of Russians surveyed stated that they plan to vote for or lean toward voting for Putin in the upcoming election in March. While 67% approve of the incumbent president’s handling of foreign policy, just 58% support his management of domestic issues. The majority of Russians (80%) reported that their standard of living has remained the same or declined since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Polling in Russia must be approached with a healthy degree of scepticism due to likely concerns among the public of repercussions for voicing dissenting views. However, the survey underscores that support for Putin and the war in Ukraine remain high despite stagnant or deteriorating living standards.
POLLING: Different polls draw different conclusions, underscoring the limited utility of such polls to guage true Russian public opinion. For example, independent Russian media outlet Verstka reported on 8 January that Russians consider the war to be the most significant and negative factor in their lives and want it to end as quickly as possible. An unspecified insider in one of the organisations of the Russian presidential administration working with public opinion claimed that less than 50% of Russians support the continuation of the war. At the same time, over 30% are in favour of progressing to peace negotiations. A Russian sociologist noted that moral condemnation of the war, while strong, has not yet transformed into an anti-war political movement, with Verstka stating that Russians are not ready to protest to end the war. Rather, they expect Putin to end it. Ultimately, this indicates that Russians are unlikely to mobilise to end the war in the near term despite their opposition towards it.
NEGOTIATIONS: Bloomberg reported on 9 January that a secret meeting took place on 16 December 2023 in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) between Ukraine, its G7 allies and a small group of Global South countries to build support for Kyiv’s conditions for holding peace. Top officials from India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey participated, though Brazil, China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) did not send their representatives. Russia was also not invited. People familiar with the matter claimed that the meeting was kept secret in part to make participant countries feel more comfortable about attending. However, it did not result in major progress.
NEGOTIATIONS: Ukraine and its G7 allies reportedly continued to push back against calls from Global South nations to engage directly with Russia, which Kyiv almost certainly is not willing to do at present. While this cannot be confirmed, if true, it indicates that there is less support for Kyiv’s conditions for peace amongst some Global South countries. This could realistically modestly weaken Ukraine’s position when negotiations for ending the war eventually take place, though peace talks are highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
NEGOTIATIONS: On 8 January, Swiss media reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is due to visit Switzerland next week for at least two days. Zelensky is expected to travel mainly to Davos to attend the World Economic Forum (WEF), which will take place on 15-19 January, and reportedly intends to speak at the event. The President is also planning to visit the Swiss capital, Bern, to meet Swiss government officials. On 14 January, Davos is expected to host a meeting of national security advisors on Ukraine’s peace formula.

FORECAST

AID: UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron re-affirmed on 9 January that London is prepared to support Kyiv in the long term, given the issue has bipartisan support. Cameron noted that the issue of aiding Ukraine is not as contentious in British politics compared to in the US or in some European countries. According to polling from More in Common in November 2023, 73% of Britons consider Ukraine defeating Russia’s full-scale invasion to be an important issue for the UK. Just 12% of respondents answered that London should stop supporting Kyiv.

Lord Cameron stated that the UK, along with Ukraine’s other Western partners, must ramp up their military production to match the growing trend of Russia transforming into a ‘wartime economy’, aligning with other growing European commitments on this issue in 2024. The foreign secretary said the combined GDPs of pro-Ukraine countries outrank Russia and that it should not be impossible for such states to reach a sufficient industrialised footing.

While emphasising the need for the US to unlock further aid, Cameron noted that the combined total of the UK and EU’s military support for Kyiv is roughly equal to that of what the US has provided alone. Further delays in issuing additional support for Ukraine in the US, as well as concerns of a Ukraine-sceptic Republican president in the November elections will highly likely sustain concerns of whether Europe can maintain military assistance for Kyiv in the long term.

Meanwhile, several other European leaders are committing to increasing their military aid to Ukraine in 2024, led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He reportedly wants to increase pressure on EU states to deliver more weapons to Ukraine by addressing the issue at a summit of leaders on 1 February. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, France, Italy and Spain have contributed EUR 0.54 bn, EUR 0.69 bn and EUR 0.34 bn (respectively) in military aid from 24 January 2022 to 31 October 2023. As such, Germany and the UK will likely encourage these and other countries that have provided comparatively less support to increase their commitments in the coming weeks and months. In response to this, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo has already pledged on 9 January that the EU will further scale up its support for Ukraine, but it remains unclear how this will be achieved and whether genuine consensus will be reached at the European Council summit on 1 February.

*Russia-Ukraine: Cyber attack against telecommunications provider poses security, operational risks. Earlier on 10 January, Ukrainian hackers targeted M9com, a Russian internet provider, in response to a December 2023 cyber attack against Ukraine’s largest telecommunications provider, Kyivstar, by the Russian-backed group ‘Sandworm’. The group behind the attack on M9com, known as ‘Blackjack’, allegedly collaborated with Ukraine’s security services (SBU). The attack against the provider caused internet and television service outages for around half of Moscow’s population, affecting M9com’s website, mail servers, cyber protection services and branch websites. Blackjack hackers claim to have deleted around 20TB of data and to have exfiltrated over 10GB from M9com’s servers, making the data publicly accessible via TOR. They also indicated that they plan to conduct a more significant attack as retribution for the Kyivstar incident. This follows their targeting of Moscow’s water management company, Rosvodokanal, in December 2023, which led to severe operational disruption. Further attacks against Russian services are likely; any such attacks would likely trigger retaliatory actions by Russian-aligned hackers.

Jan 09.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

SOUTHERN: Russian forces are slowly advantcing along Zaporizhzhia axis, as defending Ukrainians suffer from artillery ammunition shortages and a disadvantage in electronic warfare (EW) capabilities
MOBILISATION: Draft legislation on Ukrainian military mobilisation is likely to undergo significant changes during ongoing parliamentary hearings, but it is unclear how extensive efforts to clampdown on draft dodging will be
RECONSTRUCTION: Ukraine’s foreign minister has estimated that the total value of frozen Russian assets can cover more than 80% of Ukraine’s reconstruction needs, but G7 are yet to make a decision on appropriating Russian assets
FORECAST: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on EU member states to ramp up military support to Ukraine this year, but enduring Hungarian opposition could delay agreement in February

MILITARY AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS

BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: On 9 January, a Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian forces counter-attacked south of Novomykhailivka, a settlement located (10km) south-west of Donetsk city. According to the milblogger, the counter-attack forced Russian units to withdraw from this part of the settlement. The report comes after geolocated footage from 7 January indicated that Russian forces made limited progress south of Novomykhailivka. Meanwhile, the commander of Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, claimed on 9 January that 30 Russian servicemen surrendered over the past three days along the Donetsk frontline.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 8 January indicates that Russian forces have successfully retaken some positions to the west of Verbove, located six miles (10km) east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast). Russian forces have been slowly advancing along this axis over the last month, retaking a number of positions Ukrainian forces seized during their Summer counter-offensive, though Russian progress remains slow. Nevertheless, the Wall Street Journal reported on 8 January that Ukrainian forces are suffering from artillery ammunition shortages along this section of the frontline. The defending Ukrainian units are relying upon first person view (FPV) drones to offset these artillery shortages, but the relatively limited payload such drones deliver means Ukrainian forces are limited in their ability to strike field fortifications.
SOUTHERN: On 7 January, the New York Times similarly reported that Ukrainian forces are struggling to overcome various difficulties amid constant Russian attacks along the Zaporizhzhia frontline. Aside from artillery ammunition shortages, Ukrainian forces are also suffering from a disadvantage in electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Russian forces are highly likely enjoying a distinct EW advantage on the battlefield at present. Chief of Ukrainian EW and cyber warfare in the Ukrainian General Staff, Ivan Pavlenko, has stated that Russia is producing so many cheap FPV drones that they are becoming a ‘huge threat’, meaning defensive EW capabilities are all the more vital. EW is a constant back-an-forth battle of advantage and disadvantage, and has been one of the most dynamic domains of the war.
SOUTHERN: While Ukraine is currently at a disadvantage in electronic warfare (EW), it will continue to innovate and respond to try and offset Russia’s advantage. Notably in this regard, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR) claimed on 8 January that its had seized 100 gigabytes of classified data from a prominent Russian technology company that produces drones and EW systems. The cache of data reportedly includes information on blueprints, patents and software for both existing and developing military projects, potentially providing Kyiv with an opportunity to offset Russia’s EW advantage in certain areas.
STRIKES: Nothing significant to report

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

MOBILISATION: On 9 January, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, chairperson of Ukraine’s National Security, Defence and Intelligence parliamentary committee, said that the draft legislation on military mobilisation would likely undergo significant changes during ongoing parliamentary hearings. On 8 January, Yehor Chernev, the Deputy Chairman of the National Security, Defence and Intelligence committee, said Ukraine’s latest draft legislation on mobilisation will not include female conscription.
MOBILISATION: According to Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak, the parliament gas received five versions of the bill, including the initial draft submitted by the government on 25 December. The original proposal included wide-ranging provisions to sanction and limit the rights of individuals who evade military conscription and registration. However, some voices pointed out that certain provisions of the bill would contradict with the Constitution, resulting in delays and the need to rewrite the bill. Today, 9 January, marks the expiry date for additional versions to be submitted to the parliamentary committee, and as such it is likely that only these five versions will be considered by lawmakers in the coming weeks.
CORRUPTION: Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov disclosed on 8 January that internal audits and investigations in the ministry have uncovered more than USD 260m (UAH10bn) in previously committed violations. Umerov did not elaborate on what these breaches related to, however. Umerov stated that the Ministry of Defence (MoD), in collaboration with Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), exposed a corruption scheme for the purchase of ammunition for the armed forces worth almost USD40m (UAH1.5bn) in December.
CORRUPTION: According to Umerov, efforts to tackle corruption have already yielded results, noting that Ukraine managed to save around USD 91m (UAH 3.5bn) on logistics procurement over the past four months. The MoD will likely announce further results of corruption audits in the coming months in a bid to demonstrate reform efforts following the resignation of the former defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, in September. However, institutional corruption will likely remain entrenched in the long term despite attempts to limit corruption from undermining the war effort.
RECONSTRUCTION: In an interview published on 8 January, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, estimated that the total value of frozen Russian assets can cover more than 80% of Ukraine’s reconstruction needs. Kuleba expressed confidence that Kyiv will receive funds from the frozen assets, but caveated that the extent is unclear, noting that there are three elements to consider: the frozen assets themselves, as well as profits and taxes on the assets. Kuleba said Ukraine would use them to rebuild schools, hospitals and infrastructure.
RECONSTRUCTION: However, on 8 January, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while G7 leaders have asked that options be developed and that potential risks involved with the process be evaluated, no decision has been made on appropriating Russian frozen assets. Yellen said she would want an assessment of the potential risks posed to the international role of the US dollar and whether mitigating measures could be put in place. Should plans progress in the coming weeks, Russia will highly likely increase rhetoric that it plans to seize Western assets in retaliation, elevating the risk of confiscations. For further analysis, please see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 22 December 2023.

FORECAST

AID: On 8 January, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on EU member states to ramp up military support to Ukraine this year. According to Scholz, the planned weapons deliveries to Kyiv from most countries in the bloc are not enough. Scholz’s comments are almost certainly aimed at rallying EU countries to step up support amid uncertainties over future assistance from the US – Ukraine’s largest military donor.

Scholz added that while his government is preparing to double its military assistance to Ukraine this year, Germany’s contributions alone will not be enough to guarantee Ukraine’s security in the long term. The Chancellor stated that other EU countries may potentially be planning further military aid for Ukraine, but said Germany was not aware of any such plans. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Berlin has committed USD 18.7bn (EUR 17.13bn) to Kyiv since 24 January 2022 to 31 October 2023, outpacing other European countries.

Scholz noted that Berlin has asked the EU to verify with member states what support they are planning ‘at the latest’ by 1 February – the next summit of EU leaders. As such, the calls for an overview of European military aid plans are likely to outline where there may be potential deficits in military aid and to make contingency plans accordingly to mitigate the possibility of Kyiv lacking certain equipment – such as critical artillery ammunition, drones and air defence systems and munitions, including Patriot systems. However, numerous disagreements and procedural issues could still delay a blow-wide agreement, including Hungary’s continued threats to veto any EU-level aid.

Nevertheless, earlier on 9 January, Politico reported that Hungary has signalled it may lift its veto over EU aid to Ukraine on the condition that the funding is reviewed annually. According to a diplomat with knowledge of the matter, the plan would see the bloc provide USD 13.67 bn (EUR 12.5bn) in grants and loans each year to Kyiv for four years. This would amount to USD 54.7bn (EUR 50bn) proposed by the European Commission. However, if such a decision were made, this could realistically result in Budapest threatening to, or actually blocking, the funding each year, resulting in further macro-economic instability and depriving Kyiv of certainty in its budget forecasting.

On 7 January, international media reported that European Council President Charles Michel will run as a candidate for the European parliamentary election in June. Michel reportedly intends to take up his seat in the European parliament in mid-July if elected, meaning that EU leaders will have to agree quickly on a successor for his post. Failure to do so would mean that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would lead meetings as Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the European Council in July. If such a scenario were to happen, Hungary’s chairmanship would likely exacerbate divisions between the bloc and undermine cohesion on further support for Ukraine, increasing Budapest’s influence over foreign policy. However, this outcome is unlikely as only a qualified majority is needed to elect a successor and pro-Ukraine EU officials will likely seek to avoid it by electing Michel’s successor quickly, with former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi a possible alternative.

Jan 08.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

DONETSK: Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances near Marinka, likely as part of an effort to complicate Ukrainian supplies to Vuhledar
STRIKES: Russia launched another massive missile strike campaign designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences and to target critical infrastructure
BORDERS: Polish farmers have suspended their protest at the Medyka-Shehnyi border crossing; ongoing trucker protests will sustain operational and supply chain disruption
FORECAST: Media reports point to concerns in Washington DC over missile supplies for Ukraine’s critical Patriot air defence system amid funding and production issues
BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: Geolocated footage posted on 7 January indicates that Russian forces recently made a limited advance in western Marinka and to the south of Novomykhailvka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Donetsk city. A prominent Russian milblogger reported earlier on 8 January that Russian forces have occupied new positions in the direction of Heorhiivka, located immediately north-west of Marinka; we cannot confirm this. Another milblogger claimed on 7 January that the operational objective of Russian forces pushing towards Heorhiivka is to capture Kurahkove, likely as part of a renewed attempt to capture Ukrainian-held Vuhledar by cutting logistics to the city and setting the conditions for a siege.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Earlier on 8 January, the Ukrainian Commander of Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that Russian forces continue to conduct intense offensive operations in Kupiansk forest as part of an effort to advance towards Kupiansk city (Kharkiv oblast). Syrskyi claimed that intense hostilities have not subsided for a single day since October 2023, but that Ukrainian forces are successfully repelling Russian attacks. These comments come after The Telegraph, a British newspaper, claimed on 4 January citing unnamed Ukrainian officials that Kyiv anticipates a large-scale Russian offensive effort to advance towards Kupiansk in the coming weeks.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 5 January, Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Volodymyr Fityo dismissed the possibility of a new large-scale offensive in Kharkiv. Importantly, Fityo noted that the military had not observed any change in Russia’s force composition. Like Syrskyi, Fityo stressed that Russian forces have been conducting offensive operations in the direction of Kupiansk since October 2023, and that the journalists had ‘misunderstood’ the situation. While it is likely that Russian forces will intensify their attacks in the coming weeks, a large-scale offensive remains unlikely.
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Early on 8 January, Russia launched a large-scale missile strike campaign targeting Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The attack included eight Shahed 136/131 drones, seven S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles, four Kh-47M2 hypersonic Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, six Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 24 Kh-101/-555/-55 missiles, eight Kh-22 cruise missiles and two Kh-31P guided missiles. The projectiles were launched from various directions, illustrating Moscow’s efforts to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences. Ukraine intercepted all the drones and 18 Kh-101/-555/-55 cruise missiles.
STRIKES: The strikes targeted critical infrastructure, including industrial and military facilities, in all four oblasts. However, local reports indicated that falling drone debris caused a fire in Odesa oblast. The strike reportedly damaged a mall and 20 residential homes in Kryvyi Rih, as well as administrative buildings, two gas stations and a residential building in Novomoskovsk (both Dnipropetrovsk). In Khmelnytskyi, missiles reportedly hit critical infrastructure, with six explosions reported in the oblast. Five missiles hit the city of Zaporizhzhia, reportedly striking residential areas.
STRIKES: On 7 January, Russian forces launched 28 Shahed-136/131 drones and three S-300 missiles. Air defences were active in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; they intercepted 21 drones. On 6 January, Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted two drones over Mykolaiv and Khmelnytskyi.
STRIKES: Earlier on 8 January, Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesperson, reported that air defences have intercepted 25 of 63 Kinzhal ‘hypersonic’ ballistic missiles since the beginning of the war. The Kinzhal ballistic missile is one of six ‘super weapons’ announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018; it has been used to target high-priority Ukrainian sites, yielding mixed results. Ihnat stated that Western-provided Patriot air defence missiles have boosted the interception rate of these projectiles, illustrating the importance of Western technology systems for Kyiv’s air defences.
STRIKES: Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its air defences intercepted Ukrainian-launched S-200 missiles over Belgorod oblast (Russia) earlier on 8 January. The governor of Belgorod, Vyacheslav Gladkov, announced earlier on 8 January that 300 residents of Belgorod city have been evacuated given the recent uptick in Ukrainian attacks against the oblast. Meanwhile, on 6 January, Russia’s MoD reported that its air defences intercepted four Ukrainian missiles over Russian-annexed Crimea.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BORDERS: On 6 January, Polish farmers suspended protests at the Medyka-Shehyni border crossing with Ukraine after reaching an agreement with the government. Under the agreement, Polish Agriculture Minister Czesław Siekierski will implement three financial demands by the farmers, including a EUR 232.6 m (USD 254 m) subsidy for corn, an extension of agricultural grants by EUR 581.4 m (USD 636 m) and no hike in the agricultural tax. According to the agreement, the demands will be implemented after the legislative process is completed and accepted by the EU. Meanwhile, Polish truckers have continued to protest at several border crossings against the EU’s liberalisation of transit rules for Ukrainian truck drivers. This will sustain operational and supply chain disruption risks to overland transit via the Poland-Ukraine border. However, passage through the Medyka-Shehyni border crossing will moderately improve congestion.
ELECTIONS: Russia’s Central Election Commission registered two candidates, Leonid Slutsky and Vladislav Davankov, on 5 January to run in the presidential election on 15-17 March. Slutsky is the leader of Russia’s far-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), while Davankov serves as the first deputy head of the centre-right New People (NL) party. In August 2023, independent Russian media reported that the Kremlin had mostly finalised who would run against President Vladimir Putin, noting that the candidates were from three of Russia’s ‘systemic opposition’ parliamentary parties (including LDPR and NL
ELECTIONS: Although the parties are nominally independent, they are often largely supportive of the Kremlin’s major policy decisions. The Russian authorities barred independent anti-war presidential hopeful Yekaterina Duntsova from participating in the election in December 2023. As such, Davankov and Slutsky are highly unlikely to threaten the re-election of Putin or to disrupt the status quo; they were almost certainly approved for this reason.
MOBILISATION: On 6 January, the wives and relatives of mobilised Russian men held pickets in central Moscow (Russia). According to media reports, the demonstrations took place near the Ministry of Defence (MoD and the Kremlin; no arrests were made. An officer of Russia’s Federal Protective Service (FSO) called the police, though law enforcement stated upon arrival that single pickets are a legal form of protest, meaning that they do not require approval. However, the lack of arrests does not indicate reduced bystander or detention risks during similar future demonstrations. Ultimately, further demonstrations will likely modestly raise domestic unrest risks in the coming weeks and months should they become recurrent.

FORECAST

AID: The New York Times reported on 6 January that unspecified White House and Pentagon officials have warned that the US will soon be unable to provide missiles for Ukraine’s Patriot air defence systems. The interceptor missiles reportedly cost between USD 2 and 4m each. Patriot systems have been crucial in repelling Russian strikes, particularly those involving ballistic missiles. Although the report cannot be confirmed, failure to provide further interceptor missiles would render Ukraine significantly more vulnerable to Russian strikes given that Moscow would likely use such deficits to target critical infrastructure.

On 5 January, Shalanda Young, the director of the US’ Office of Management and Budget, stated that the Pentagon has limited authority to help Ukraine without new funding from Congress. Young caveated that this would not result in big tranches of equipment being sent to Ukraine. According to Young, the presidential administration still has drawdown authority which allows it to pull weapons from existing US stockpiles and dispatch them to Ukraine. However, officials have decided to forgo pursuing this avenue, as Congress has not approved additional funds to backfill this equipment. As such, US officials are likely to increase calls in the near term, urging Congress to approve additional assistance for Ukraine (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 7 December 2023).

Meanwhile, Japan’s foreign minister, Yoko Kamikawa, pledged around USD 37m on 7 January to a NATO fund for anti-drone equipment during a press conference in Kyiv. Kamikawa also announced the donation of five mobile gas turbine generators and seven transformers to aid Ukraine through the remaining winter months. The donations will likely modestly aid Ukraine in combatting energy security risks, though Ukraine’s energy infrastructure will remain particularly vulnerable to attacks in the winter months. (Source: Sibylline)

13 Jan 24. Ukraine needs more attack aircraft for war effort – ground forces commander. Ukraine’s ground forces commander said on Friday that Kyiv needed more military aircraft for its war effort, such as U.S. A-10 attack jets to support infantry and planes that could fire long-range cruise missiles.

Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi spoke to Reuters in an exclusive interview at an undisclosed location in the northeastern region of Kharkiv that borders western Russia.

“I would talk about A-10s as an option if they’ll be given to us … this is not a new machine, but a reliable one that has proven itself in many wars, and which has a wide array of weapons for destroying land targets to help the infantry,” said the 58-year-old, wearing combat fatigues.

The A-10 Thunderbolt is a subsonic attack aircraft produced in the United States that has been in service since the 1970s.

Syrskyi’s call for more aircraft comes as a major new U.S. package of military aid for Kyiv has been held up by infighting among lawmakers.

Syrskyi said the A-10 would provide crucial support for ground forces as they attempt to seize the initiative against a well-resourced enemy.

“It is for destroying land-based targets: tanks, artillery … everything that counters the infantry,” he said.

Sirskyi added that attack helicopters such as the AH-64 Apache and AH-1 Super Cobra, as well as the UH-60 Black Hawk, could also play an important role.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, 2022, Kyiv has pressed Western allies to supply increasingly sophisticated arms and ammunition, including armoured vehicles, tanks, long-range missiles and F-16 fighters.

The first F-16 jets are expected to arrive in Ukraine later in 2024, although their impact on the war could be limited by the strength of Russia’s air force.

STILL ‘CHANCES’ FOR BREAKTHROUGH

Ukraine conducted a major counteroffensive last summer that failed to achieve a major breakthrough, partly because Russian forces in the east and south of the country had dug in with trenches and other defensive lines.

Moscow’s forces are now back on the offensive in some parts of the east, where Syrskyi said fighting remained fierce.

He added that Russian forces were continually attacking in several parts of the front, with Ukrainian forces conducting small counterattacks.

“This is active defence when we are not just sitting on the defensive but constantly counterattacking, and in some directions switching to the offensive,” he said. “And the enemy knows this.”

As well as calls for more aircraft, Ukraine has asked allies to speed up the supply of artillery ammunition, which some units have complained is running short.

While drones are increasingly influential on the battlefield, artillery is a mainstay for both armies, and Ukraine is having to balance its use of various calibre shells based on the available supply.

“We have developed an expertise with this and adjust to our daily realities,” said Syrskyi.

Despite near-stalemate along a frontline some 1,000 km (620 miles) long, Syrskyi, who oversaw the defence of Kyiv in early 2022 and Ukraine’s lightning counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region later that year, said future breakthroughs were still possible.

Asked if there could be a turning point in the war in Ukraine’s favour, he said: “I think there are always chances. You just need to find them and use them.”

He added that it was “impossible” for Russia to have built robust defences everywhere, and that there were always weak spots because of the landscape and other factors.

(Source: Reuters)

13 Jan 24. Ukraine suffered a massed Russian missile attack in the early hours of Saturday, its air force said, adding that Moscow had fired some of its most fearsome hypersonic missiles.

Air defences shot down Russian missiles in at least five regions across Ukraine, according to local officials from those provinces.

However, no details were given on whether any targets were hit, and far less information about the attack than usual was provided by officials.

Ukraine’s air force warned during the attack that Russia had fired Kinzhal missiles — perhaps the hardest conventional Russian missile to shoot down, moving at several times the speed of sound.

Police in the northern region of Chernihiv posted a picture of a large crater made by a downed missile.

“As a result of being hit by the debris of an enemy missile, several private homes and non-residential buildings were damaged, one building was practically destroyed,” the police wrote, adding that a dog had been killed but no people were hurt.

(Source: Reuters)

12 Jan 24. UK support will not falter.

Prime Minister to visit Kyiv today [Friday] to set out a major new package of support and reaffirm the close UK-Ukraine partnership
Rishi Sunak will increase military funding for Ukraine next financial year to £2.5 billion, supporting largest ever commitment of drones
The Prime Minister and President Zelenskyy will also sign a historic UK-Ukraine Agreement on Security Cooperation
The Prime Minister is expected to meet first responders dealing with the aftermath of Russian bombings as part of his visit

Later today, the Prime Minister and President Zelenskyy will sign a historic UK-Ukraine Agreement on Security Cooperation. The G7 nations agreed to provide Ukraine with bilateral security assurances at the NATO Summit in Vilnius last year; the UK is the first country to deliver a final agreement. The totemic agreement is intended to be the first step in developing an unshakeable hundred-year partnership between Ukraine and the United Kingdom.

The UK-Ukraine Agreement on Security Cooperation formalises a range of support the UK has been and will continue to provide for Ukraine’s security, including intelligence sharing, cyber security, medical and military training, and defence industrial cooperation.

It also commits the UK to consult with Ukraine in the event it is ever attacked by Russia again, and to provide “swift and sustained” assistance for their defence.

Ahead of meeting President Zelenskyy, Rishi Sunak has also confirmed the UK will provide £2.5bn in military aid to Ukraine in 2024/25, an increase of £200m on the previous two years.

The funding will help to leverage the best of UK military expertise and defence production to ensure Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield, including in critical areas like long-range missiles, air defence, artillery ammunition and maritime security.

Of the £2.5bn, at least £200m will be spent on a major push to rapidly procure and produce thousands of military drones for Ukraine, including surveillance, long-range strike and sea drones. The technology will give Ukraine cutting edge, battle-tested capabilities to defend their citizens and target the invading Russian forces on land and sea.

This will be the largest delivery of drones to Ukraine from any nation. Most of the drones are expected to be manufactured in the UK, and the Ministry of Defence will work with international partners to significantly scale up the number of drones provided for Ukraine’s defence.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “For two years, Ukraine has fought with great courage to repel a brutal Russian invasion. They are still fighting, unfaltering in their determination to defend their country and defend the principles of freedom and democracy. I am here today with one message: the UK will also not falter. We will stand with Ukraine, in their darkest hours and in the better times to come. “

“The UK is already one of Ukraine’s closest partners, because we recognise their security is our security. Today we are going further – increasing our military aid, delivering thousands of cutting-edge drones, and signing a historic new Security Agreement to provide Ukraine with the assurances it needs for the long term.”

During his visit to Kyiv, the Prime Minister is expected to meet emergency workers responding to the aftermath of Russian airstrikes. He will announce a further £18m in aid for Ukraine, building on almost £340m already provided. Some of that funding will support organisations like the UN and Red Cross to provide humanitarian aid on the frontline, and £8mi will go to fortify Ukraine’s energy infrastructure against further Russian attacks.

As part of efforts to cement the close bond between our two nations and Ukraine’s place at the heart of Europe, the UK will also provide additional funding and resources for English language training in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Government has proposed legislation to promote English in Ukraine, boosting economic competitiveness and diplomatic ties. Today’s announcement will see the UK fund online English lessons for Ukrainians of all ages, as well as providing resources and teacher training.

Today’s visit builds on months of direct diplomacy between the Prime Minister and President Zelenskyy, as well as a world-leading record of UK military, diplomatic and economic support for Ukraine. With this latest funding, the UK has now provided almost £12 billion in support to Ukraine and has often been the first-mover on vital lethal aid, from Storm Shadow cruise missiles to a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

11 Jan 24. Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania team up to clear Black Sea mines. Defense leaders from Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania formalized a pact Jan. 11 aimed at protecting Black Sea shipping from mines laid in the course of Russia’s attack against Ukraine. Turkish defense minister Yaşar Güler, Bulgarian deputy defense minister Atanas Zapryanov and Romanian defense minister Angel Tîlvăr signed a memorandum of understanding to that effect here. The initiative, conceived by Turkey last September, now goes to the national governments for approval. According to the agreement, the task force will include three mine countermeasures ships – one from each country – and a command-and-control ship. Deployments of 15 days will take place at least twice every six months.

A committee of naval commanders from the three participating will oversee the effort, holding meetings at least twice per year. The overall leadership will rotate every six months.

Per a Turkish defense ministry statement, the activities of the MCM Black Sea initiative are not directed against any other country, a caveat in line with Ankara’s reluctance to antagonize Russia explicitly.

Instead, the statement continues, the initiative is expected to help improve interaction and neighborly relations between the participants without replacing NATO’s presence and ongoing deterrence and defence activities in the Black Sea region.

The Bulgarian navy operates three Tripartite-class mine hunters, three Sony- class minesweepers transferred from the Soviet Union in early 1980ies and six Olya-class inshore minesweepers.

The Romanian naval forces have four Musca-class minesweepers in service. These were commissioned between 1987 and 1989. The first of two newly acquired Sandown minehunters from the UK arrived in Romania in late December 2023.

The Turkish Navy has five Engin-class mine hunters bought from France in 1997, plus six Aydın-class ships. (Source: Defense News)

11 Jan 24. Lithuania’s Continued Assistance to Ukraine Transfers to 2024 with New Purchase Plans. In 2024 the Ministry of National Defence will further render continued military assistance to Ukraine. It will include transfers of the remaining equipment bought and implementation of the procurements started last year. New purchases have been mapped out already with the procedure set to begin in 2024. Lithuania will also continue contributing financially to international funds and carry out training and rehabilitation of Ukraine’s military personnel.

“Ensuring continued assistance to Ukraine is one of the most vital priorities for the Ministry of National Defence. The arms and equipment Lithuania and the Allies supply are critical factors in Ukraine’s defence of its independence and security of the whole Europe. Lithuania will not grow tired of supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom, just like we never grew tired fighting for reestablishment of independent Lithuania for 50 years,” says Minister of National Defence Arvydas Anušauskas.

In 2024 Lithuania will hand over to Ukraine the already purchased vehicles: trucks, pick-ups, ambulances, different types of hitches and loaders. Other necessities to be transferred will include UAVs, drone jamming equipment, remote detonation equipment, ammunition and magazines, warm clothing sets and various types of equipment necessity during the winter.

The Ministry of National Defence will implement a series of new acquisitions in 2024: the assistance to Ukraine plan 2024-2026 foresees approx. EUR 200m for acquisitions in assistance to Ukraine.

Most of the upcoming assistance is oriented to meet the needs of the demining coalition of Ukraine, therefore it will include different mine neutralization equipment, loaders, tank trucks, besides ammunition and field rations. This package will be delivered to Ukraine in 2024-2025.

“The demining coalition of Ukraine is created to combine and coordinate the assistance rendered or planned by donor states for demining of Ukraine. We are establishing a fund to implement the objectives of the coalition, including for acquisitions of technical means and equipment necessary for completing mine countermeasures on the territory of Ukraine. In that way Lithuania will further develop our engagement in the replenishment of Ukraine’s military capabilities not only by responding to urgent needs but also by forming permanent demining of Ukraine units that will receive adequate equipment and gear and meet Western military standards,” says A. Anušauskas.

Aside from the input in the demining of Ukraine coalition fund, in 2024 Lithuania will continue contributing to other international assistance fund for Ukraine and cover expenses of training Ukrainian military. Approx. 3000 troops of Ukraine are planned to undergo training by the end of 2024, rehabilitation of the injured military will also retain the tempo and scope of 2023.

Also, in 2024 the Ministry of National Defence will actively engage to assist with the Ukrainian defence reform and services standardization. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Lithuania Republic Ministry of Defence)

11 Jan 24. The Pentagon failed to properly track more than $1bn worth of weapons the US provided to Ukraine, according to a watchdog’s report that could fuel concerns about whether the arms had been diverted from Kyiv at a time when Congress is weighing whether to send more military aid. The report from the defence department’s inspector-general did not offer an assessment on whether the weapons had been diverted but found that the US did not appropriately monitor at least $1bn of $1.7bn in weapons sent to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbour nearly two years ago. The exports covered by the report include shoulder-fired missiles such as Javelins and Stingers, switchblade or “kamikaze” drones and night vision goggles. The equipment that was designated for so-called enhanced end-use monitoring covers only a small part of the more than $44bn in lethal aid the US has provided since Russia’s invasion. “It was beyond the scope of our evaluation to determine whether there has been diversion of such assistance,” said the report, which was published on Thursday. It added that the high rates of missing or unaccounted for weapons “may increase the risk of theft of diversion”. A defence department official said: “There is no credible evidence of illicit diversion of US-provided advanced conventional weapons from Ukraine.” The inspector-general’s report shows that the practices employed by US diplomats and military officials to track weapons fell short of the stringent monitoring processes the Biden administration has cited as part of its argument for additional assistance. That is likely to intensify concerns in Congress and the American public about how taxpayer funds are being spent. The report found that US diplomats and military officials experienced logistical and personnel issues that contributed to their shortfalls in tracking aid inside Ukraine as well as neighbouring Poland, where the US maintains a logistics hub. Recommended War in Ukraine Moscow imports a third of battlefield tech from western companies It also assessed that even if the Pentagon improves its monitoring methods, tracking changes to the inventory will continue to be challenging. The debate on approving more assistance for Ukraine has grown increasingly fractious in Congress, especially among Republicans. House and Senate Republicans have demanded that President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats agree to a border security and immigration package in order to pass tens of bns in additional assistance for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Republicans have demanded that the White House provide more accountability for the aid as well as lay out a strategy for US support for Ukraine and a pathway to resolving the conflict. (Source: FT.com)

11 Jan 24. Ukraine builds barricades, digs trenches as focus shifts to defence.

Summary
Ukraine steps up construction of fortifications
Kyiv’s troops switching to more defensive footing
Shift follows big push stymied by Russia’s defences

Rows of white concrete barricades and coils of razor wire stretch across an open field for more than a kilometre. Trenches with rudimentary living quarters are being dug under cover of darkness. Artillery rumbles not far away.

New defensive lines visited by Reuters near the northeastern city of Kupiansk on Dec. 28 show how Ukraine has stepped up construction of fortifications in recent months as it shifts its military operations against Russia to a more defensive footing.

The defences, which bear some similarities to those rolled out in the Russian-occupied south and east, aim to help Ukraine weather assaults while regenerating its forces as Moscow takes the battlefield initiative, military analysts said.

“As soon as the troops are moving, traversing fields, you can do without fortifications. But when the troops stop, you need to immediately dig into the ground,” a Ukrainian army engineer with the call sign Lynx told Reuters near Kupiansk.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that Ukraine was “significantly enhancing” fortifications on Nov. 28 after a counteroffensive that it launched in June was unable to rapidly punch through Russian lines.

Kyiv says it is unswayed in its ambition to retake all remaining occupied territory, but for now is focused on politically sensitive conscription reforms to replenish manpower and on addressing artillery shortages at the front.

Russia has been ramping up offensive pressure around eastern towns such as Kupiansk, Lyman and Avdiivka, and no longer needs to hold back its reserve troops for fear of a possible Ukrainian breakthrough, the military analysts said.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine’s defensive constructions needed to be boosted and work on them accelerated around the three towns, in eastern parts of the Donetsk region, and in the regions of Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne and Volyn.

Those regions stretch all the way up from Ukraine’s east, along the border with Russia and Belarus, to its western ally Poland. Zelenskiy said the southern Kherson region, a swathe of which is still occupied, would also be reinforced.

DEFENSIVE POSTURE

There is no publicly available data for the intensity or scale of the fortification construction.

Ukraine has had defensive lines in some areas of the eastern Donbas region since 2014, when Russia backed militants who seized territory. It has been heavily dug in at places such as Avdiivka throughout the full-scale invasion.

Stronger fortifications would slow down Russian troops and suck fewer Ukrainian forces into defence, freeing them up from the front so they could, for instance, receive more training, said Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute.

“The Ukrainians are now shifting onto a defensive posture because their offensive has culminated,” he said in a telephone interview, adding that Russia had retaken the initiative on the battlefield and was able to choose where to attack.

With Ukrainian artillery ammunition stocks declining, the rate of Russian casualties was falling, making it easier for Moscow to generate new units, which in time could allow them to open up new lines of attack, he added.

“On the Ukrainian side, they are trying to minimise their own casualties, but also regenerate offensive combat power,” said Watling.

He said fortifications could also be used to defend Ukraine’s flanks when it goes back on the offensive.

DRAGON’S TEETH

On Wednesday, Reuters reporters visited trenches being dug with an excavator and shovels at an undisclosed location in the Chernihiv region near the Russian border.

“When the civilians have done their job (building the positions), we will densely mine it,” Serhiy Nayev, Ukraine’s joint forces commander who oversees the northern military sector, told reporters at the site.

Last month, Reuters reporters visited newly built Ukrainian trenches in Chornobyl near the border with Belarus, a Russian ally used by Moscow as a staging ground for the February 2022 invasion.

A large military engineering vehicle churned through the snowy ground as it carved out a wide anti-tank ditch.

“(The works are ongoing) along the whole Northern Operational Zone. These works are currently underway in Sumy region, Chernihiv region, here in the Kyiv direction,” Nayev said at the site.

“Concrete structures, barbed wire, … ‘dragon’s teeth’ (concrete barricades)…; they will be mined and barbed wire will be put on them. This will be a continuous concrete obstacle for armoured vehicles,” he said.

Near Kupiansk, Ukraine’s military showed Reuters reporters newly built defensive lines, but said the exact location could not be disclosed publicly for security reasons.

A military engineer using the call sign “Lizard” said they typically put down the “dragon’s teeth” first, followed by coils of razor wire and then mines, if they use them.

“I believe most of these barriers should have been built much earlier, probably in the spring. It takes too much time,” he said.

Several hundred metres behind the “dragon’s teeth”, work was underway to expand a network of personnel trenches reinforced with wooden beams where there were also living quarters and wooden bunk beds.

Lynx, the other serviceman, said Ukraine was trying to minimise the use of mines for its fortifications to avoid leaving dangerous munitions on its territory.

“This is our land. We wouldn’t want to litter it so much,” he said. (Source: Reuters)

10 Jan 24. NATO pledges further major military, economic aid to Ukraine. NATO allies in a meeting with Ukraine have made it clear they will continue to provide the country with major military, economic, and humanitarian aid in the face of Russia’s almost two-year-old invasion, NATO said on Wednesday.

In a statement after the video conference, NATO added that member states had outlined plans to provide “bns of euros of further capabilities” in 2024 to Ukraine.

“NATO strongly condemns Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians, including with weapons from North Korea and Iran,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

“As Moscow intensifies its strikes on Ukrainian cities and civilians, NATO allies are boosting Ukraine’s air defences.”

Ukraine was represented at the online gathering by Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, commander of Kyiv’s air force, and Deputy Interior Minister Oleksii Serhieiev.

Russia has intensified attacks over the New Year period and pounded Ukraine’s two biggest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv, earlier this month in a new wave of heavy air strikes. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

10 Jan 24. Ukraine’s Caesar Artillery Incorporating Artificial Intelligence. He further explained that work on the project will be beginning in 2024. His revelations, according to the Ukraine’s Defence press office, occurred at a December meeting with a delegation of the Senate of the French Parliament, which included discussions toward acquiring additional Caesar guns.

Ukraine currently has forty-nine Caesars, eighteen donated by France plus twelve purchased from Nexter KNDS and nineteen provided by Denmark. Supply of another six was announced in October 2023.

The artificial intelligence effort will incorporate AI into Caesar’s already advanced fire management functions. Caesar’s state-of-the-art fire control not only calculates a firing solution and applies that to automatically laying the gun but also includes the vehicle/weapon location, meteorological data, and ammunition details all within seconds. Caesar is, thus, upon receiving a fire mission is able to be moving, halt, deploy stabilizers, load, lay and fire multiple rounds and then be moving again in under two-minutes. It can even execute programmed firing patterns without operator intervention. For example, Multiple-Round Simultaneous Impact (MRSI) engagement, where the rounds fired rapidly in sequence have each trajectory adjusted so that all impact on the target at the same time, is possible. A single Caesar can conduct MRSI with its controls performing the necessary adjustments fully automatically. The addition of AI could further enhance the howitzer’s performance by drawing on its capabilities to more rapidly assess targets and determine and apply the optimum solution to engage them. Gavrylyuk suggested the use of AI could offer a thirty percent saving in ammunition used while increasing accuracy and on-target effect. This alone would recommend the project effort but the potential to reduce a mission execution is equally valuable. The limited numbers of Caesar, understood to be only ten, being employed against Russia’s Aviivka offense have been successfully employing its “shoot-and-scoot” tactic. Here, despite committed Russian counter-battery response of 180-seconds, it has continued to destroy attackers without losing a single gun. (Source: Armada)

11 Jan 24. North Korea using Ukraine as nuclear missile ‘test site.’ North Korea is using Ukraine as a “test site” for nuclear-capable missiles it has supplied to Russia, South Korea has warned.

Russia’s armed forces have launched multiple North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukraine since late December.

Hwang Joon-Kook, Seoul’s envoy to the United Nations, told a Security Council meeting on Wednesday that Pyongyang was using Ukraine as a “test site of its nuclear-capable missiles”.

“The introduction of North Korean missiles into the war in Ukraine has a significant implication on global nuclear non-proliferation,” he said.

Mr Joon-Kook added that Russia’s use of the missiles was an “existential threat” to South Korea.

South Korea was one of 48 countries including the US, Britain and Germany which issued a joint statement on Tuesday condemning the missile deliveries.

“The transfer of these weapons increases the suffering of the Ukrainian people, supports Russia’s war of aggression, and undermines the global non-proliferation regime,” it said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

10 Jan 24. Russia threatens fresh invasion of northern Ukraine to stop bombardment of Belgorod. Russia has threatened a fresh invasion of north-eastern Ukraine as calls escalate for a “buffer zone” to stop attacks on the border city of Belgorod.

Dimitri Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, said Russian forces would do “everything” to prevent further Ukrainian bombardment of the frontier region after a string of recent attacks that left scores dead.

His comments prompted demands from pro-war Russian ultra-nationalists for a large-scale offensive to advance at least 15 kilometres (9 miles) into the Kharkiv region in order to push Ukrainian artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) out of range of Belgorod.

Kyiv’s forces have repeatedly struck the city, which sits 20 miles inside Russia, in retaliation for Moscow’s deadly bombardments on Ukraine in recent weeks.

“Of course, our military will continue to do everything to first minimise this danger and then completely get rid of it,” Mr Peskov told reporters this week. “The SVO [special military operation] continues for this purpose.”

His veiled threat came after The Telegraph reported last week that Ukraine was braced for a renewed offensive near Kharkiv as Russian forces ramped up bombardments on military targets in the north-eastern city and the surrounding region.

There has been significant pressure on the Kremlin to launch a new assault on Ukraine’s second-largest city, which Russian forces have never occupied, amid discontent over cross-border raids into Belgorod by pro-Ukrainian Russian rebels. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

10 Jan 24. Time for diplomacy in Ukraine, Italy’s defence minister says.

The time has come for diplomacy to pave the way for peace between Russia and Ukraine, Italy’s defence minister said on Wednesday, adding that firm Western support for Kyiv was crucial to ensure serious negotiations.

Guido Crosetto told parliament the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive had not produced the desired result and the military situation had to be viewed with realism.

“From this perspective … it would seem that the time has come for incisive diplomacy, alongside military support, because there are a number of important signals coming from both sides,” Crosetto said.

Russia is progressively showing willingness to negotiate and safeguard its economy, while Ukraine’s stance appears less uncompromising than before, he said.

“All of this must be taken into consideration on the path towards negotiations to stop the conflict and the subsequent process of normalisation of relations, not only of Russia with Ukraine, but also with Western countries,” he said.

Russia has said it is ready for peace talks if Ukraine takes account of “new realities”, suggesting an acknowledgement that Russia controls about 17.5% of Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has rejected any notion that Moscow is interested in talks, telling the Economist magazine this month that Russia would only agree to a pause in fighting if it needed a break to replenish its army.

“In Ukraine, the domestic front appears to be no longer as united as in the past in supporting President Zelenskiy’s policy, highlighting some divergences in the political discourse,” Crosetto said.

Zelenskiy has embarked on a flurry of international trips in recent weeks, trying to shore up Western support amid warnings that the Ukrainian military is running low on weaponry.

Italy last month passed a decree allowing it to carry on sending war supplies to Ukraine until the end of 2024. The government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also agreed to send Kyiv more materials to boost its defences.

Crosetto, a strong supporter of Kyiv and a senior member of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, reiterated that any peace talks had to clearly recognise Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in February 2022.

“The full territorial integrity and recognised borders of Ukraine remain the goal of the entire international community,” he said. (Source: Reuters)

11 Jan 24. Ukrainian forces are taking full advantage of their THeMIS UGVs. The THeMIS unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) delivered by Milrem Robotics to Ukrainian armed forces in the war with Russia are being taken full advantage of during demining, route clearance, re-supply and other missions according to feedback shared with the company.

“The UGVs delivered to Ukraine are being used to clear areas from anti-tank mines as well as unexploded ordnances (UXOs), transporting equipment to areas that are not accessible with conventional vehicles or where the risk of losing that equipment is high,” said Cpt (res) Jüri Pajuste, in charge of the Ukrainian program in Milrem Robotics, naming a few use-cases based on information gathered from the end-user. “However, the most important benefit comes not from avoiding the loss of equipment but the loss of life,” Pajuste added.

Milrem Robotics delivered 14 THeMIS UGVs to Ukraine. Seven of the systems are intended to carry cargo and for casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and seven, equipped with payloads from the French CNIM, for route clearance and demining operations.

“Casualty evacuation and route clearance are two labour-intensive activities where soldiers performing these tasks immediately become targets for the enemy. UGVs, on the other hand, can be operated from a distance, keeping the soldiers in a safe location,” Pajuste added.

The THeMIS’ have also been used by engineers to carry anti-tank mines to accelerate mining operations.

“The operators of the UGVs noted that during the bezdorizhzhia, as the muddy season is referred to in Ukrainian, the THeMIS can act as a re-supply vehicle instead of heavy trucks that tend to get stuck. Also, the small size and low height of the UGV makes its discovery by the enemy difficult and that has increased its survivability,“ Pajuste said.

For obvious security reasons, the units using the systems and the deployment locations remain classified.

Milrem Robotics recently signed a cooperation agreement with the Ukrainian Defense Industry (UDI), which consolidates national defence industry companies, that details several development and manufacturing activities between the company and the members of UDI.

According to the agreement, the parties will start strategic cooperation in identifying Ukraine’s requirements and use cases for robotic systems which can enhance the capabilities of Ukraine’s armed units in the ongoing war and after the war.

Thereafter the companies involved will integrate Ukraine’s battlefield experience into Milrem Robotics’ existing robotic and autonomous systems and develop new products to create Ukraine’s manned and unmanned multi-domain capabilities.

Additionally, the parties will investigate manufacturing THeMIS Combat (with HMG and antitank capabilities), Combat Engineering (mine detection and demining), CASEVAC unmanned ground vehicles and other Milrem Robotics’ products in Ukraine.

Milrem Robotics is the leading European robotics and autonomous systems developer and systems integrator, with offices in Estonia, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and the US. The company is known for its THeMIS and Multiscope UGVs, the Type-X Robotic Combat Vehicle and the MIFIK autonomy kit.

10 Jan 24. ArtArmor: London’s First Public Art Exhibition That Saves Lives in Ukraine. A unique art exhibition showing armour that has saved the lives of Ukrainians is heading to London for the first time to the High Commission of Canada Gallery on Trafalgar Square from 19th to 31st January 2024.

The ArtArmor exhibition in the U.K. is a charity initiative organised in partnership with Ukraine For Heroes, NP Aerospace, the High Commission of Canada and the Embassy of Ukraine in the U.K. to highlight the vital importance of ongoing support to Ukraine from countries around the world1.

ArtArmor is a collection of 50 body armour plates, from manufacturers including NP Aerospace, that have been worn by Ukrainians and saved their lives by stopping bullets. Each plate returned from the frontline has been transformed into iconic pieces of art by talented Ukrainian artists or children to tell their story of war. The exhibition has so far toured Poland, Germany and Sweden and is heading to the U.K. just one month before the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

The exhibition is the brainchild of Ukrainian Member of Parliament Oleksandr Kovalchuk, Founder of ArtArmor and the charity ‘Ukraine for Heroes’2. Kovalchuk noted that “ArtArmor gets to the heart of what is going on in our country and expresses the thoughts of our brave and creative people. The terrifying marks from bullets and shrapnel that these plates stopped in battle tells the story of the ongoing war in Ukraine better than words. Countries like the U.K., Canada and the U.S. have done a huge amount to support the frontline with lifesaving kit and we extend our gratitude.”

Following the exhibition, the ArtArmor team will hold an art auction aimed at raising funds to purchase additional protective equipment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thereby, their mission of art saving lives will be realised. They are also looking for U.K. artists to get on board with the initiative by turning further armour plates into pieces of art.

His Excellency The Honourable Ralph E. Goodale, PC, High Commissioner for Canada in the United Kingdom, said: “The High Commission of Canada in the U.K. is proud to present this unique exhibition in its Canada Gallery, a dedicated gallery space in the heart of London. I can think of no better place to showcase body armour plates turned into iconic pieces of art that saved the lives of Ukrainian soldiers – literally. Canada deeply admires the bravery and courage of Ukrainians who are fighting to defend their independence and freedom, and we will continue to work closely with our Allies and partners to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty and security. I look forward to welcoming many visitors to this exquisite exhibition in support of Ukraine.”

James Kempston, CEO of NP Aerospace, said: “As a key supporter to Ukraine3, collaborating with ArtArmor, the High Commission of Canada and the Ukraine Embassy to the U.K. is an absolute honour. It enables us to highlight the amazing job that companies from around the world are doing to support the frontline but also helps ArtArmor to bring the plates to auction, in order to give them a second chance to save lives.”

Since February 2022, Canada has committed over $2.4bn in military assistance donations to Ukraine. The UK is also a significant donor having committed £4.6bn in military assistance to Ukraine so far, including £2.3bn in 2022 and a commitment to match that funding in 2023
Charity Foundation ‘Ukraine for Heroes’ has delivered humanitarian support to de-occupied territories during the conflict equating to approximately US$10m.
NP Aerospace is a key supporter to Ukraine, having supplied 150,000 body armour plates and other lifesaving kit such as ballistic helmets since the war started.

09 Jan 24. Ukraine producing more drones than state can purchase, minister says. Ukrainian manufacturers have ramped up output of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to the extent that Kyiv’s current drone procurement budgets are not sufficient to buy everything being produced, Ukraine’s technology minister said on Tuesday.

Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister who also handles the digital brief, has championed the use of drones to fight off the Russian invasion since its early days.

“As of today, the market has accelerated much faster than the amount of money to buy all the UAVs,” Fedorov told Ukrainian national television.

“Therefore we need to increase financing and open up markets further, so that prices fall thanks to competition and localisation of part (production) begins,” he said.

UAVs have been widely used by both Ukraine and Russia in the 22-month war, providing armies with constant eyes in the sky and allowing them to destroy into targets hundreds of times the drone’s value, such as air defence systems and advanced radars.

Aerial vehicles are the most commonly used type of drone, although sea and land-borne devices are also being deployed.

According to the minister, there are now about 200 companies in Ukraine making drones, and approximately 70 local firms have now signed contracts to supply drones to the state. (Source: Reuters)

10 Jan 24. Russian nationalists demand major offensive near Kharkiv.

Russian nationalists have demanded a major new offensive near Kharkiv in a bid to stop further Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod.

Dozens have been killed and hundreds injured in strikes on the city, which is just 20 miles from Ukraine’s north-eastern border, in recent weeks.

Now calls have been made for the Russian army to advance along hundreds of miles of frontline to establish a nine-mile-deep “buffer zone” that would push Ukrainian missile launchers out of range of the city.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said the proposed offensive contradicted “the Russian military’s likely inability to conduct an operation to seize significant territory in Kharkiv Oblast in the near term”.

“A Russian incursion 15 kilometers in depth and several hundred kilometers in width would be a massive operational undertaking that would require a grouping of forces far larger and significantly better resourced than what Russian forces currently have concentrated along the entire international border with Ukraine, least of all in Belgorod Oblast,” it said.

Russia has not won any major military advance since May last year, when Wagner mercenaries spearheaded the taking of Bakhmut after a brutal months-long battle for the city.

The calls for a new offensive near Kharkiv came after Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Vladimir Putin’s government would do “everything” to stop increasingly frequent Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod. The most deadly attack came on December 30, when 25 people were killed and more than 100 were injured. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

09 Jan 24. White House Pushes Defense Industries on Tech Help for Ukraine. White House officials met Monday with leaders from the technology and defense industry sectors to discuss how to give Ukraine cutting-edge U.S. equipment such as unmanned aerial systems or demining gear and support its bid to defend itself from Russia, according to U.S. National Security Council aides.

Jake Sullivan, White House national security adviser, convened the five-hour meeting between industry experts and government officials on new technological capabilities that would allow Ukraine to detect and counter Russian unmanned aerial systems and demine large areas in Ukraine as President Joe Biden’s more than $100 bn supplemental aid package, which includes support for Ukraine, languishes in Congress.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged European Union countries on Monday to offer more military and financial assistance to Ukraine. He criticized EU member states for not delivering sufficient weapons to Kyiv and called on them to do more.

Although Germany lagged in its support to Ukraine at the beginning of the war, it is now one of the top providers of weapons and financial aid. Late last year, the country agreed to double its military aid for Ukraine in 2024 to $8.8 bn.

“As significant as the German contribution is, it will not be enough to ensure Ukraine’s security in the long run,” Scholz said at a news conference in Berlin.

Russian air defense units downed 10 shells approaching the city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border Monday. Three residents were injured in the shelling, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said.

Belgorod has come under Ukrainian attacks in recent weeks. A missile and drone attack late last month killed 25 civilians, including five children.

Earlier, Russia resumed its winter bombardment strategy, pummeling several areas across Ukraine on Monday with its largest hypersonic and cruise missiles and killing at least four people while injuring 30 others.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces had used precision sea-launched and air-launched long-range missiles, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, to strike what it called “facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.”

Western officials and analysts had warned that Russia was stockpiling its cruise missiles to target mainly Ukraine’s defense industry this winter, as opposed to the country’s infrastructure last winter. But so far, Russian strikes have frequently hit civilian areas.

Missiles, drones shot down

Ukraine’s air force said the country’s air defenses had shot down 18 cruise missiles and eight Shahed drones launched by Russia.

The Ukrainian air force said the targets of the missiles included “critical infrastructure facilities,” as well as civilian and military industrial sites. It also noted that not all missiles that were not intercepted reached their targets.

Oleksiy Kuleba, deputy head of Ukraine’s presidency, said Russian missiles had struck a shopping center and high-rise buildings in Kryvyi Rih, the south-central city that is the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Kuleba said one person was killed.

In the western region of Khmelnytskyi, officials said, a Russian missile strike killed at least two people.

Oleg Synegubov, the regional governor of the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine, said one person was killed in the city of Zmiiv.

Zelenskyy expressed confidence Sunday that Russia could be defeated and warned that the war in Ukraine had shown that Europe should develop a joint weapons production with Ukraine and build a sufficient weapons arsenal for its defense.

“Two years of this war have proven that Europe needs its own sufficient arsenal for the defense of freedom. Its own capabilities to ensure defense. Its own potential that will allow all of Europe, or any part of it, to stand and preserve itself under any global situation,” he said.

Zelenskyy made the comments via a video link at a Stockholm defense conference, while Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom expressed his country’s commitment to support Kyiv.

Japan also pledged its support to Kyiv on Sunday when Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa made an unannounced visit, becoming the first official foreign visitor in the Ukrainian capital in 2024.

Kamikawa, who was forced into a bomb shelter by an air alert in Kyiv, condemned Russia’s missile and drone attacks on civilians, adding that her country would provide an additional $37m to a NATO trust fund to help purchase drone-detection systems. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Voice of America News)

09 Jan 24. Kremlin will do ‘everything’ to stop strikes on Belgorod. The Kremlin has vowed to do “everything” it can to stop Ukraine’s increasingly frequent strikes on the border city of Belgorod.

Ukraine’s armed forces have killed and wounded dozens of the city’s inhabitants in repeat missile and drone attacks on the city in recent weeks.

“Of course, our military will continue to do everything in order to minimise the danger at first and then eliminate it entirely,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a 10-missile salvo on Belgorod, which is just 20 miles inside Russia, on Monday night left three civilians in intensive care.

The most deadly Ukrainian strike on the city came on December 30, when 25 people were killed and more than 100 were injured.

Mr Peskov accused Ukraine of deliberately targeting civilians in the centre of the city using weapons supplied by Western allies. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

09 Jan 24. Ukraine has deficit of anti-aircraft guided missiles – air force. Ukraine has a deficit of anti-aircraft guided missiles nearly two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said on Tuesday.

Ukraine has relied heavily on military and financial aid from its Western allies since the invasion in February 2022, but political wrangling has delayed the disbursement of major aid packages for this year.

Ihnat told Ukrainian television that Ukraine had used a “considerable reserve” of missiles defending itself against recent attacks, and added: “It is clear that there is a deficit of anti-aircraft guided missiles.”

Russia has stepped up missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in the past few weeks, firing hundreds of missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities far behind the frontline, Ukrainian officials have said.

In the latest strike this week, Russia fired 51 missiles of various types, killing at least four people and hitting civilian infrastructure, they said.

Ukraine said it shot down 18 of the cruise missiles that were fired, a much lower rate of interception than usual. Ukrainian officials attributed this to the large number of ballistic missiles fired by Russia as they are harder to intercept.

Ihnat said that he hoped that delays over Western aid packages would be resolved soon as Ukraine depended on Western supplies not only for air defence ammunition.

“We have more and more Western equipment today and, accordingly, it needs maintenance, repair, updating, replenishment, and corresponding ammunition,” he said.

Yehor Chernev, a lawmaker, told Ukrainian television that the government would discuss how to strengthen its air defences at a meeting with its NATO allies this week.

Ukrainian officials had warned that Russia was stockpiling missiles for more attacks during the critical cold months, hoping to inflict more damage on the energy grid after air strikes caused frequent power cuts last winter. (Source: Reuters)

08 Jan 24. Cuashub.com said today that Ukraine Receives Aid from Japan for Drone Detection Technology. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa announced that Japan has allocated USD 37m to Ukraine to acquire tools to detect unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Kamikawa shared this information during a press conference with her Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba.

During an unannounced visit over the weekend, Kamikawa visited Ukraine, announcing that Tokyo would extend support to the war-torn country by providing a drone detection system through aid. This commitment comes amidst growing concerns about waning support in certain countries for Kyiv’s ongoing nearly two-year effort to resist an invasion by Russia.

“As part of our support, Japan recently decided to contribute USD 37 m to the NATO trust fund to provide an unmanned aerial vehicle detection system,” Kamikawa said.

The Japanese Minister strongly denounced the missile and air assaults conducted by Russian troops on Ukrainian soil, especially during the New Year holidays. She conveyed sympathy for the victims affected by the attacks perpetrated by Russian occupiers.

In a joint statement released by Japan and Ukraine, it was announced that Tokyo will further supply Kyiv with five mobile gas turbine generators and seven transformers. This assistance comes at a crucial time as Ukrainians contend with a severe winter, exacerbated by Russian forces targeting vital infrastructure, including power plants.

Kamikawa emphasized that her visit to Ukraine signifies Japan’s unwavering support for the country. (Reference)

https://cuashub.com/en/content/ukraine-receives-usd-40m-from-japan-for-drone-detection-technology/?_hsmi=289100313&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-87kkhsiK5HjmdmzAmbfoelLbx-C2X2q_0pKcwv2daU9Vw6-CvICwogfF_Tlm_dJwxAKJAlGYc0LM3OyuIap693lsR-83osW3MNDdeZuLRk7jbYaXY#utm_campaign=C-UAS%20Hub%20General&utm_medium=email&utm_content=289100313&utm_source=hs_email (Source: https://cuashub.com/)

08 Jan 24. Zelenskyy Urges Joint Weapons Production in Europe to Defend Against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed confidence that Russia could be defeated and warned that the war in Ukraine has shown that Europe should develop a joint weapons production with Ukraine and build a sufficient weapons arsenal for its defense.

Zelenskyy made the comments via a video link at a Stockholm defense conference Sunday, while Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom expressed his country’s commitment to support Kyiv.

“Sweden’s military, political, and economic support for Ukraine remains the Swedish government’s main foreign policy task in the coming years,” he posted during the event on X, formerly Twitter, the messaging app.

Japan also pledged its support to Kyiv Sunday when Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa made an unannounced visit, becoming the first official foreign visitor in the Ukrainian capital in 2024.

“Japan is determined to continue to support Ukraine so that peace can return to Ukraine,” Kamikawa said through an interpreter at a joint news conference with her Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba.

Kamikawa, who was forced into a bomb shelter by an air alert in Kyiv, condemned Russia’s missile and drone attacks on civilians, particularly on New Year’s Day, adding that her country would provide an additional $37m to a NATO trust fund to help purchase drone-detection systems.

Russia deployed almost 300 missiles and more than 200 drones in attacks in the last days of 2023 and the first days of 2024, according to the Reuters news agency.

Russia attacks

Russia launched 28 attack drones and three cruise missiles at Ukraine overnight, Ukraine’s air force said Sunday, adding that its air defense systems destroyed 21 of the drones.

The air force said on its Telegram messaging channel that Russia mainly targeted the south and east of Ukraine but did not say what happened to the three cruise missiles.

Reuters could not independently verify the report. There was no immediate comment from Russia.

Two people were killed, and several others wounded in Russian shelling of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, the head of the city administration, Roman Mrochko, said. In Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region, a man was killed, and two other civilians wounded in Russian shelling of the Kupiansk district Sunday.

A deadly Russian missile strike hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk on Saturday, about 80 kilometers northwest of Donetsk, the governor of the Ukrainian-held part of the region, Vadym Filashkin, wrote on Telegram.

“Eleven dead, including five children — these are the consequences for now of strikes on Pokrovsk district,” Filashkin said, posting pictures of rescue squads sifting through large piles of smoldering rubble in the dark along with a burned-out vehicle.

The British defense ministry said Sunday that Rosgvardia, the Russian National Guard, is seeking to boost its “resources and personnel,” because of “upheavals” in Russia’s internal security caused by its war on Ukraine.

The daily ministry report said portions of the mercenary Wagner Group came under the umbrella of Rosgvardia in October, followed this month by the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic “Vostok” Battalion.

Moscow has been making moves to dissolve the breakaway region’s Kaskad group, which specializes in drone operations, and “subordinate” parts of it to Rosgvardia, according to the ministry.

These moves, along with the authorization Russia gave Rosgvardia this past summer to use heavier weaponry, “will likely represent a significant increase” in Russia’s combat effectiveness, the British ministry said.

Drones – North Korea

The Kharkiv region prosecutor’s office provided evidence Saturday indicating Russia may have attacked Ukraine with missiles supplied by North Korea.

Examining fragments of one of several missiles that hit the city of Kharkiv on January 2, Dmytro Chubenko, spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office, said it was visually and technically different from Russian models.

Chubenko would not provide the missile’s exact model name but showed remnants to reporters and said its production method was not very modern. He said it differed from the standard Iskander missiles that had previously struck Kharkiv.

“This missile is similar to one of the North Korean missiles,” Chubenko said, adding that its diameter was slightly larger than a Russian Iskander missile and its nozzle, internal electrical wiring and rear parts were different.

Russia and Ukraine are ramping up their drone production as UAVs – unmanned aerial vehicles – have been widely used by both sides since the beginning of the war.

Russia plans to domestically produce more than 32,000 drones each year by 2030, accounting for 70% of its drone stockpile, at the cost of $7.66 bn, the TASS news agency cited First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov as saying Saturday.

“This is almost three times higher than current production volumes,” Belousov told TASS.

Ukraine said in December it planned to produce more than 11,000 medium- and long-range attack drones in 2024, as well as 1 m FPV, or first-person-view, drones that are widely in demand on the front line.

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Voice of America News)

06 Jan 24. Ukraine “takes delivery of at least one Rheinmetall Skynex air defence system.” The German government announced another military aid package for Ukraine on 4 January, including delivery of at least one Rheinmetall Skynex air defence system.

Intended to provide short-range (3-4km) response to low-altitude threats, including manned aircraft, helicopters and drones, Skynex incorporates the 35mm Revolver Gun Mk3, capable of firing Advanced Hit Efficiency and Destruction (AHEAD) airburst ammunition at rates of up to 1,000 rpm. Also integrated to the system are an advanced X-TAR3D target acquisition radar with an effective detection range of around 50km, which provides 3D target-tracking data for up to four gun turrets.

Skynex will certainly enhance Ukraine’s tactical short-range counter-UAS capability, though a single system will have only a marginal strategic effect.

Rheinmetall announced in December it was upgrading Romanian Oerlikon-based air defence artillery to the Skynet air defence solution configuration, under a €328m contract. (See UA post here).

For more information: Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government (bundesregierung.de) (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

08 Jan 24. Suspected Russian drones ‘spying’ on Ukrainian troops training in Germany. Suspected Russian drones are regularly being spotted over army bases in Germany where Nato is training Ukrainian soldiers, it has been reported.

Ukrainians learning to operate Leopard tanks have been repeatedly observed by drones overhead, according to German tabloid Bild.

Marcus Faber, a German MP, said he suspected Russia was responsible but did not have concrete evidence.

The German army has “a huge amount of catching up to do when it comes to drones”, he warned.

Andreas Schwarz, another MP, added: “We must not allow Russia to spy on military training areas with drones.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

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