Sponsored by Bertin Exensor
www.exensor.com
——————————————————————————————————————
21 Apr 26. Japan: Lifting of weapon export ban will drive regional tensions, possible Chinese sanctions. Earlier on 21 April, the Japanese government lifted a ban on exporting lethal weaponry. Under the new arrangements, government ministers and officials will assess the merits of each proposed sale. This change will allow Japan to sell arms to the 17 countries it has defence agreements with, although restrictions on sales to countries involved in active conflicts will remain unless under ‘special circumstances’. This follows the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s stated intentions to revise the Japan’s pacifist constitution and the country’s gradual deployment of Type-12 long-range missiles nationwide. We assess that the revision will provide the legal grounds for Japan to provide arms to its regional partners, partly to deter Chinese aggression. In mid-2025, Australia selected Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build a new fleet of Australian frigates, with the first ship scheduled to be delivered by 2029. Meanwhile, Japan will reportedly consider exporting used warships to the Philippines. The regulatory change and upcoming arms sales will almost certainly drive tensions with China. It is a realistic possibility that Beijing will expand its export control entity list to cover more Japanese firms linked to the defence sector, while almost certainly retaining other economic retaliatory measures against Japan, such as travel boycotts. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Apr 26. Sudan: Further air, drone strikes are likely in coming weeks, threatening staff across Kordofan region. On 22 April, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) resumed heavy airstrikes on Rapid Support Forces (RSF) positions around Dilling (South Kordofan state). This follows a successful SAF campaign targeting RSF air defences, which had previously downed several SAF aircraft and forced them to depend upon drones. The SAF has relaunched offensive operations across several axes in the Kordofan region, with both sides claiming tactical victories along the fluid front line. SAF operations will likely prioritise progress along the El Obeid (North Kordofan state)-Dilling corridor, to support besieged SAF troops in the latter city. However, entrenched RSF defences and mines are likely to undermine SAF efforts to seize and hold settlements in the coming weeks. As such, we assess that both parties are highly likely to continue employing short- and medium-range drones during offensive operations and targeting civilian infrastructure in the coming weeks. This will increase the threat to life for locally engaged NGO staff, including those based in healthcare facilities and internal displacement camps. This is also likely to undermine aid distribution efforts, compounding humanitarian conditions.
(Source: Sibylline)
20 Apr 26. North Korea: Frequent ballistic-missile tests will sustain regional tensions. On 19 April, North Korea conducted test launches of upgraded short-range ballistic missiles with cluster bomb warheads, according to its state media. Pyongyang reportedly fired missiles towards a target zone about 85 miles (136km) away, hitting an area of roughly 0.05 square miles (0.13 sq km), which North Korea claimed demonstrated its high-density striking capability. Japan’s government stated that the missiles were believed to have fallen near the east coast of the Korean Peninsula, with no incursion into Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) confirmed. This was North Korea’s fourth ballistic-missile launch in April and the seventh in 2026 as a whole. We assess that the country will likely maintain a higher frequency of testing in the short term, sustaining regional tensions. This is in part to showcase its defence capabilities amid the US’ push to curb Iran’s nuclear and missile programme, while exerting pressure on the US and South Korea before any potential dialogue with US President Donald Trump. North Korea will also highly likely accelerate technological efforts to strengthen combat readiness; leader Kim Jong-un stated in March that a ‘self-defensive nuclear deterrent’ was essential to national security. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Apr 26. Ethiopia: Anti-government protests are highly likely to mobilise on 8 May, increasing unrest risks. On 17 April, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP) announced that it would proceed with planned protests on 8 May, regardless of whether the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) permits the demonstrations. The EPRP has called for nationwide demonstrations to protest electoral conditions ahead of the 1 June general election, which it has described as a ‘pseudo-election’ designed to extend Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s tenure. Demonstrations are planned in the capital Addis Ababa, as well as in Adama, Ambo (both Oromia region), Bahir Dar, Gonder (both Amhara region), Hawassa (Sidama region) and Mekele (Tigray region). While the EPRP’s influence within Ethiopia is limited, elevated levels of anti-government sentiment will likely bolster participation in demonstrations held in Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions, though major protests in Addis Ababa are less likely. The police are highly likely to employ heavy-handed dispersal techniques, such as baton charges, tear gas and rubber bullets. This will make transiting major roads more complicated, increasing risks of disruption to overland movement and supply chain continuity. This risk is less pronounced in Mekele, where local political elites will possibly endorse protests. Regardless, the EPRP will likely be unable to mobilise sustained demonstrations preceding the election, moderating risks of prolonged unrest. (Source: Sibylline)
—————————————————————————————————————
Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
A CNIM Group Company
———————————————————————————————————————