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12 Feb 26. India: Purchase of fighter jets will increase military capability, posture, modernisation efforts. On 11 February, India’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved an initial proposal to buy 114 Rafale fighter jets from France’s Dassault Aviation for INR 3.25trn (USD 35bn). This procurement will take India’s total Rafale fleet to 176. The purchase comes after the retirement of the MiG-21 fighter jet in September 2025, with other variants scheduled to retire in the coming years. While India has recently pushed to increase domestic manufacturing, it has historically relied on defence equipment imports. The purchase follows heightened tensions with Pakistan and China in recent years, as well as a military confrontation with Pakistan in May 2025 during which more than six of India’s jets were reportedly shot down. We assess that the acquisition of Rafale jets will enhance India’s military capability and strategic posture as it continues efforts to modernise its forces. However, questions regarding the jets’ operational reliability and performance will likely persist, particularly in light of reports of underperformance during the recent conflict with Pakistan. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Feb 26. Thailand-Cambodia: Landmine explosion unlikely to trigger military conflict despite tensions. At around 1640hrs (local time) on 11 February, a landmine wounded three Thai soldiers in Phlan Yao (Kantharalak district, Si Sa Ket province) near the border with Cambodia. The unit was on a security mission in Thai territory. Preliminary reports from the Thai army suggest that the landmine was left over from previous fighting. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul asked units to exercise greater caution when carrying out their duties. Thailand and Cambodia engaged in military exchanges in July and December 2025, partly triggered by alleged Cambodian landmine placements (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 19 December 2025). We assess that this incident is unlikely to renew the conflict, as Thailand has not attributed the explosion to newly laid mines. However, tensions remain as the two countries continue to trade accusations of human rights violations and territorial infringements. Their land border is highly unlikely to be reopened in the short term, sustaining logistics and trade disruption. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Feb 26. Ethiopia: Possible federal deployment to Tigray is likely to drive conflict escalation in Amhara region. On 11 February, pro-Amharan ethno-nationalist media sources claimed that the Fano (an Amharan ethno-nationalist militia group) had entered Debre-Tabor, the zonal capital of South Gondar (Amhara region). They further claimed that Ethiopian federal forces responded with airstrikes within the city. While it has not been possible to corroborate the specific claims, the Fano have been making territorial advances in the South Gondar zone. This has largely been triggered by a local withdrawal of Ethiopian federal forces, possibly prior to their deployment to the Tigray region amid escalating tensions with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF, see Sibylline Special Report – 4 December 2025). If Ethiopian forces deploy to Tigray, this will likely trigger a TPLF insurgency, absorbing considerable military resources. This will enable ethno-nationalist militias, particularly in Amhara, to make further territorial gains. This will increase the risk of attacks on the region’s major cities and key overland routes, driving staff exposure to crossfire, explosives and kidnap over the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Feb 26. Taiwan: Paralysis in defence budget review is likely to persist, undermining military modernisation. Earlier on 11 February, the opposition Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) agreed to schedule the government’s special defence budget for a committee review in the Legislative Yuan (LY; Taiwan’s unicameral legislature). The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) originally proposed a TWD 1.3 trillion (USD 40 bn) budget; however, the TPP is also putting its TWD 400 bn (USD 12.7 bn) version forward for review. Both renditions cover expenses for the arms sales announced by the US in December 2025. The first payment instalment to the US is due by 31 March. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and TPP have stalled the defence budget proposal since the government first put it forward in November 2025. We assess that the LY is highly unlikely to approve the DPP’s proposed spending in full, given the TPP’s vow to check the government and the KMT’s preference to engage with China. As such, the budget is unlikely to be passed before April. Such delays are likely to undermine Taiwan’s asymmetric military capabilities and drive tensions with the US. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Feb 26. Ethiopia: Demands for Eritrean withdrawal reflect increasing risk of Tigray conflict resumption. On 7 February, Ethiopia formally demanded the withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Ethiopian territory and accused Eritrea of providing material support to armed groups within Ethiopia. Eritrean forces currently occupy portions of territory along the border within Tigray region, through which they have been providing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) with arms and supporting smuggling efforts (see Sibylline Special Report – 4 December 2025). While the statement has raised concerns of broader conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, it more likely indicates the increasing risk of resumed conflict within Tigray. Ethiopia’s attempts to isolate the TPLF leadership have been undermined by a reconciliation between the TPLF and Eritrea, enabling the movement of materiel along the border. Now, particularly with elections looming in June, tensions are mounting over TPLF demands to regain Western Tigray from Amharan control, resulting in clashes between TPLF-aligned militias and Amharan/federal forces in late January. As such, the demand will possibly become the justification for greater restrictions on Tigray or the deployment of federal forces to the region to secure the border. Either will risk the resumption in conflict between federal and TPLF-forces, driving exposure to cross-fire and airstrikes within Tigray, including in Mekelle. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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