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03 Jan 26. Earlier on 3 January, the US military conducted several airstrikes in Venezuela at around 0200hrs (local time), including in the capital Caracas; US President Donald Trump also stated that the US military has captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The Venezuelan regime reported that attacks also occurred in Aragua, Miranda and La Guaira states. Targets reportedly included the major military complex Fort Tiuna and La Carlota Air Base (both Caracas); communications infrastructure near El Volcán (Miranda state) and La Guaira port (La Guaira state); and unidentified targets in Aragua state. Furthermore, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) earlier on 3 January banning US commercial flights over Venezuela and Curaçao due to the ‘ongoing military activity’. In response, the Venezuelan regime declared a national emergency and has enacted military mobilisation plans. Neither the US nor the Venezuelan authorities have reported the number of casualties.
SIGNIFICANCE
* Since August, the US has deployed military assets to the Caribbean Sea with the stated aim of tackling regional drug trafficking. The deployment comprises significant naval and air assets, including the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier.
* Since September, the US military has conducted a series of strikes against suspected drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean, killing at least 110 people to date. The US has also seized sanctioned oil tankers servicing Venezuela to increase economic pressure.
* In response, Maduro’s regime offered the Trump administration a number of significant concessions, such as minerals and oil rights, in exchange for a decrease in military pressure. The Trump administration has so far rejected all proposals.
FORECAST
Further strikes on key military and Venezuelan regime positions are a realistic possibility in the coming hours and days, elevating physical security risks. Possible targets include military airstrips, ports, barracks, power stations, communications infrastructure and government buildings housing high-profile regime members. Further strikes would significantly increase asset damage and physical security risks for personnel and assets proximate to these installations. Additionally, if the US accompanies strikes with special forces operations to capture other members of the Venezuelan regime, the risk of armed clashes will increase. Nevertheless, we continue to assess that a large-scale US ground invasion of Venezuela is a remote possibility in the near term. The Venezuelan regime is unlikely to retaliate militarily against the US in the short-to-medium term, decreasing the risk of armed conflict. The Venezuelan regime will likely attempt to negotiate with the Trump administration by offering further concessions which will possibly de-escalate bilateral tensions.
In the immediate term, the risk of a coup d’état against the Venezuelan regime by elements of the armed forces will increase significantly (see Sibylline Special Report – 23 December 2025). Vice President Delcy Rodríguez will highly likely assume the presidency in Maduro’s absence. The Venezuelan regime will highly likely mobilise the security forces to lock down Caracas and other major urban centres, as well as reinforcing critical national infrastructure, such as airports and ports. This will cause significant operational disruption to the aviation and maritime sectors in the immediate term. The disruption will be exacerbated by the FAA NOTAM and the likelihood of intense GPS jamming operations by the US military off the coast of Venezuela. In the event of an attempted coup, the risk of armed clashes will increase significantly in Caracas, proximate to key regime infrastructure, such as the Miraflores presidential palace.
The Venezuelan regime will likely retaliate by cracking down on opposition supporters, increasing repression risks. The Venezuelan opposition will highly likely take advantage of the strikes and Maduro’s alleged exfiltration by the US. Anti-government demonstrations calling for de facto opposition leader María Corina Machado or former presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia to take power are highly likely in the coming hours and days. A heavy-handed crackdown on protests by the regime is highly likely as well as arrests of prominent opposition figures. Increased repression will elevate arbitrary detention, censorship and physical security risks for personnel in the humanitarian and journalism sectors, as well as individuals associated with the opposition. Surveillance of US nationals in Venezuela will also likely increase in the coming days. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Dec 25. China stages military drills around Taiwan to warn ‘external forces’. China’s military on Monday dispatched air, navy and missile units to conduct joint live-fire drills around the island of Taiwan, which Beijing called a “stern warning” against separatist and “external interference” forces. Taiwan said it was placing its forces on alert and called the Chinese government “the biggest destroyer of peace.” Taiwan’s aviation authority said more than 100,000 international air travelers would be affected by flight cancellations or diversions. The drills came after Beijing expressed anger at what could be the largest-ever U.S. arms sale to the self-ruled territory and at a statement by Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, saying its military could get involved if China were to take action against Taiwan. China says Taiwan must come under its rule. The Chinese military did not mention the United States and Japan in its statement on Monday, but Beijing’s foreign ministry accused the Taiwanese ruling party of trying to seek independence through requesting U.S. support. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said rapid response exercises were underway, with forces on high alert.
“The Chinese Communist Party’s targeted military exercises further confirm its nature as an aggressor and the biggest destroyer of peace,” it said.
Beijing sends warplanes and navy vessels toward the island on a near-daily basis, and in recent years it has stepped up the scope and scale of these exercises. Senior Col. Shi Yi, spokesperson of China’s People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command, said the drills would be conducted in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, southwest, southeast and east of the island. Shi said the activities would focus on sea-air combat readiness patrol, “joint seizure of comprehensive superiority” and blockades on key ports. It was also the first large-scale military drill where the command publicly mentioned one goal was “all-dimensional deterrence outside the island chain.”
“It is a stern warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external interference forces, and it is a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity,” Shi said.
China and Taiwan have been governed separately since 1949, when a civil war brought the Communist Party to power in Beijing. Defeated Nationalist Party forces fled to Taiwan. The island has operated since then with its own government, though the mainland’s government claims it as sovereign territory.
Drills will continue on Tuesday
The command on Monday deployed destroyers, frigates, fighters, bombers and unmanned aerial vehicles, alongside long-range rockets, to the north and southwest of the Taiwan Strait. It carried out live-fire exercises against targets in the waters as well. Among other training, drills to test the capabilities of sea-air coordination and precise target hunting were conducted in the waters and airspace to the east of the strait. Hsieh Jih-sheng, deputy chief of the general staff for intelligence of the Taiwanese Defense Ministry, said that as of 3 p.m. Monday, 89 aircraft and drones were operating around the strait, with 67 of them entering the “response zone” — airspace under the force’s monitoring and response.
In the sea, the ministry detected 14 navy ships around the strait and four other warships in the Western Pacific, in addition to 14 coast guard vessels.
“Conducting live-fire exercises around the Taiwan Strait … does not only mean military pressure on us. It may bring more complex impact and challenges to the international community and neighboring countries,” Hsieh told reporters.
Military drills are set to continue Tuesday. Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Administration said Chinese authorities had issued a notice saying seven temporary dangerous zones would be set up around the strait to carry out rocket-firing exercises from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Tuesday, barring aircraft from entering them. The Taiwanese aviation authority said more than 850 international flights were initially scheduled during that period and the drills would affect over 100,000 travelers. Over 80 domestic flights, involving around 6,000 passengers, were also canceled, it added. The Chinese command released themed posters about the drills online accompanied by provocative wording. One poster depicted two shields with the Great Wall alongside three military aircraft and two ships. Its social media post said the drills were about the “Shield of Justice, Smashing Illusion,” adding that any foreign interlopers or separatists touching the shields would be eliminated. Last week, Beijing imposed sanctions against 20 U.S. defense-related companies and 10 executives, a week after Washington announced large-scale arms sales to Taiwan valued at more than $10 bn. It still requires approval by the U.S. Congress. Under U.S. federal law in place for many years, Washington is obligated to assist Taipei with its defense, a point that has become increasingly contentious with China. The U.S. and Taiwan had formal diplomatic relations until 1979, when President Jimmy Carter’s administration recognized and established relations with Beijing. Asked about the drills, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party has attempted “to seek independence by soliciting U.S. support and even risk turning Taiwan into a powder keg and ammunition depot.”
“External forces’ attempts to use Taiwan to contain China and to arm Taiwan will only embolden the Taiwan independence forces and push the Taiwan Strait toward a dangerous situation of military confrontation and war,” he said.
There was no immediate U.S. statement on the drills.
Taiwanese army on high alert
Karen Kuo, spokesperson for the Taiwanese president’s office, said the drills were undermining the stability and security of the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific region and openly challenging international law and order.
“Our country strongly condemns the Chinese authorities for disregarding international norms and using military intimidation to threaten neighboring countries.” she said.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry released a video that featured its weapons and forces in a show of resilience. Multiple French Mirage-2000 aircraft conducted landings at an air force base. In October, the Taiwanese government said it would accelerate the building of a “Taiwan Shield” or “T-Dome” air defense system in the face of the military threat from China. The military tensions came a day after Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an said he hoped the Taiwan Strait would be associated with peace and prosperity, instead of “crashing waves and howling winds,” during a trip to Shanghai. (Source: Defense News)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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