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22 Dec 25. Colombia: Ceasefires during holiday period will moderately decrease physical security risks. On 21 December, three of Colombia’s most high-profile non-state armed groups (NSAGs) announced temporary ceasefires with the government. The ceasefires involve the National Liberation Army (ELN; 24 December to 3 January 2026), the Central General Staff (EMC) Iván Mordisco faction (23 December to 7 January 2026) and the EMC’s Calarcá Cordoba faction (indefinite). In each agreement, the groups have pledged not to target the state security forces except in self-defence; the ceasefires do not extend to other armed groups. We assess that the ceasefires will likely be largely upheld, moderately decreasing the risk of armed clashes and physical safety risks nationwide, though sporadic clashes with the state forces remain a realistic possibility. Nevertheless, if the authorities attempt to exploit the temporary ceasefires to target NSAGs, attack and physical security risks will be elevated in the vicinity of police stations and military bases, particularly in Antioquia and Chocó departments. Meanwhile, on 21 December, locals kidnapped 18 military personnel in Carmen de Atrato (Chocó department) during an anti-ELN operation. In the immediate term, we assess that the kidnapped personnel will likely be released in the coming days as a gesture of goodwill ahead of the temporary agreements. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Dec 25. Venezuela-US: US seizure of second oil tanker near Venezuela elevates regional tensions. On 20 December, the US Coast Guard (USCG) intercepted an oil tanker that had recently departed from Venezuela in international waters. Reports indicate that the seized vessel was the Panama-flagged, Chinese-owned ‘Centuries’; Centuries is not subject to US sanctions but was reportedly carrying sanctioned oil purchased by a Chinese buyer. The USCG is also reportedly pursuing another oil vessel, the ‘Bella 1’, in international waters near Venezuela. The seizure of Centuries is the second such operation by the USCG in recent weeks and the first since US President Donald Trump announced a ‘complete blockade’ of sanctioned oil tankers leaving and entering Venezuela. The seizure of a non-sanctioned vessel points to an escalation in tensions between the US, China and Venezuela. We assess that further US seizures of oil tankers suspected of carrying sanctioned oil are likely in the short-to-medium term, increasing operational and supply chain disruption risks for the energy sector. Significant oil market volatility is unlikely in the near term due to the presence of numerous well-supplied tankers currently anchored near China, though seizure events are likely to precipitate minor short-term uncertainty. However, if the US sustains the blockade and oil tanker seizures in the longer term, critical oil market volatility will become increasingly likely. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Dec 25. Cambodia-Thailand: Talks raise prospect of ceasefire in short-to-medium term. On 22 December, after an ASEAN Special Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Malaysia involving the Cambodian and Thai foreign ministers, Thailand claimed that a General Border Committee (GBC) meeting would be convened on 24 December to discuss a ceasefire. Cambodia has asked for these talks to be held in Malaysia rather than Thailand for safety reasons. The resumed talks under the GBC mechanism are set to last two days. If they proceed, it will raise the possibility that the two sides will recommit to a ceasefire that was agreed in July. However, the likelihood of a lasting resolution to the border dispute being found remains low (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 19 December 2025). We assess that security risks near the border will remain elevated despite the talks, with Cambodia accusing Thailand of carrying out airstrikes in Cambodia on 22 and 23 December; Thailand accused Cambodia of firing around 200 BM-21 rockets mainly at Sa Kaeo province (Thailand) in the same period. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Dec 25. “The salience of nuclear weapons – that is, their importance in the doctrines and practices of nuclear-armed states – has been increasing in the Euro–Atlantic and Indo–Pacific regions… Existing and emerging non-nuclear capabilities can offer tools for crafting a credible deterrence posture responding to a range of scenarios without threat of nuclear retaliation.” This is according to Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence by Lukasz Kulesa, a new RUSI research report which examines whether states can reduce their dependence on nuclear weapons at a time when nuclear risks are growing. The report comes amid intensifying strategic competition between nuclear-armed states, the erosion of arms control frameworks, and the impending expiry of the New START Treaty in February 2026. With no successor agreement in place and no active bilateral negotiations underway, the prospect of unconstrained growth in US and Russian nuclear arsenals has become increasingly plausible, with significant implications for global strategic stability. The report says that nuclear weapons have assumed an expanded political and military role, particularly in the Euro–Atlantic and Indo–Pacific regions, even as their political, legal and humanitarian risks have become more pronounced. This report assesses ways to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons – that is their importance in the doctrines and practices of nuclear-armed states – without undermining deterrence. Rather than advocating immediate disarmament, it makes the case for narrowing or moderating these nuclear doctrines. The research says that while nuclear weapons continue to be seen as the ultimate deterrence against existential threats, many of the other strategic roles they currently fulfil – such as deterrence against chemical and biological or large conventional attack – could be credibly performed by non-nuclear means. It also urges investment in nuclear risk reduction and arms control, as well as improved crisis communications channels to avoid inadvertent escalation.
Key Findings
- Nuclear weapons are becoming more central to security doctrines. The report says: “The salience of nuclear weapons – that is, their importance in the doctrines and practices of nuclear-armed states – has been increasing in the Euro–Atlantic and Indo–Pacific regions.”
- Not all nuclear deterrence roles are indispensable. “The second-tier functions could be partially or fully substituted by other means, thus offering a path towards nuclear reductions.”
- Non-nuclear deterrence options are increasingly viable. “Existing and emerging non-nuclear capabilities can offer tools for crafting a credible deterrence posture responding to a range of scenarios.”
- Risk reduction remains essential to prevent escalation. “There is a continuous need to invest in measures to stabilise the antagonistic relations between nuclear possessors and reduce the likelihood of accidental or inadvertent escalation.”
Key Recommendations
- Narrow the circumstances for nuclear use. The report calls for “explicit narrowing of the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons.”
- Replace selected nuclear roles with conventional capabilities. It recommends: “the substitution of nuclear weapons by conventional ones” in some roles.
- Strengthen nuclear risk reduction and dialogue. The paper says “increase the effectiveness of crisis communication and address the dangers of accidental or inadvertent escalation to nuclear level.”
- Pursue incremental, realistic change. It argues that a “realistic option may be to recommend a gradual narrowing down of the roles played by nuclear weapons.”
Conclusion
Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence offers a pragmatic response to a deteriorating global nuclear landscape. At a moment marked by rising geopolitical tension, nuclear sabre-rattling by Russia, a Chinese nuclear build-up, modernisation of nuclear arsenals and the looming end of New START, the report cautions against further expansion of nuclear roles. Instead, it sets out a credible pathway for reducing nuclear risks through doctrinal restraint, strengthened non-nuclear deterrence and renewed focus on arms control and risk reduction. While nuclear weapons are likely to remain a core deterrent against nuclear attack for the foreseeable future, the report demonstrates that their broader functions are neither fixed nor unavoidable.
Lukasz Kulesa is former Director of the Proliferation and Nuclear Policy programme at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). His research focuses on nuclear deterrence, arms control, non-proliferation and strategic stability. The report draws on a joint project between RUSI and the Hiroshima Organization for Global Peace (HOPe), Envisioning Global Security Without Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence, which included three regional online working groups (Indo–Pacific, Euro–Atlantic and Middle East), expert interviews, analysis of nuclear doctrines and strategic documents, and a conference held in Hiroshima in June 2024. For more information or for any media enquiries please email
26 Dec 25. China sanctions 20 US defense companies over arms sales to Taiwan. Beijing imposed sanctions on Friday against 20 U.S. defense-related companies and 10 executives, a week after Washington announced large-scale arms sales to Taiwan. The sanctions entail freezing the companies’ assets in China and banning individuals and organizations from dealing with them, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. The companies include Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation, L3Harris Maritime Services and Boeing. Among the defense executives sanctioned is Anduril Industries’ founder Palmer Luckey, who can no longer do business in China and is barred from entering the country. Those sanctioned in the East Asian country have also had assets frozen. The recent announcement of the U.S. arms-sale package for Taiwan, valued at more than $10bn, has drawn an angry response from China, which claims Taiwan as its own and says it must come under its control. If approved by the American Congress, it would be the largest-ever U.S. weapons package to the self-ruled territory.
“We stress once again that the Taiwan question is at the very core of China’s core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China－U.S. relations,” the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday. “Any company or individual who engages in arms sales to Taiwan will pay the price for the wrongdoing.”
The ministry also urged the U.S. to stop what it called “the dangerous moves of arming Taiwan.” Taiwan is a major flashpoint in U.S.-China relations that analysts worry could explode into military conflict between the two powers. China says the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan would violate diplomatic agreements between China and the U.S. China’s military has increased its presence in Taiwan’s skies and waters in the past few years, holding joint drills with its warships and fighter jets on a near-daily basis near the island. Under American federal law, the U.S. is obligated to assist Taiwan with its self-defense, a point that has become increasingly contentious with China. Beijing already has strained ties with Washington over trade, technology and other human rights issues. (Source: Defense News)
26 Dec 25. Japan’s Cabinet OKs record defense budget that aims to deter China. Japan’s Cabinet on Friday approved a record defense budget plan exceeding 9tn yen ($58bn) for the coming year, aiming to fortify its strike-back capability and coastal defense with cruise missiles and unmanned arsenals as tensions rise in the region. The draft budget for fiscal 2026, beginning April, is up 9.4% from 2025 and marks the fourth year of Japan’s ongoing five-year program to double annual arms spending to 2% of gross domestic product.
“It is the minimum needed as Japan faces the severest and most complex security environment in the postwar era,” Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said, stressing his country’s determination to pursue military buildup and protect its people.
“It does not change our path as a peace-loving nation,” he said.
The increase comes as Japan faces elevated tension from China. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November that her country’s military could get involved if China were to take action against Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing says must come under its rule.
Takaichi’s government, under U.S. pressure for a military increase, pledged to achieve the 2% target by March, two years earlier than planned. Japan also plans to revise its ongoing security and defense policy by December 2026 to further strengthen its military.
Missiles and drones will add to southwestern island defense
Japan has been bolstering its offensive capability with long-range missiles to attack enemy targets from a distance, a major break from its post-World War II principle limiting the use of force to its own self-defense. The current security strategy, adopted in 2022, names China as the country’s biggest strategic challenge and calls for a more offensive role for Japan’s Self-Defense Force under its security alliance with the U.S. The new budget plan allocates more than 970bn yen ($6.2bn) to bolster Japan’s “standoff” missile capability. It includes a 177bn-yen ($1.13bn) purchase of domestically developed and upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles with a range of about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). The first batch of the Type-12 missiles will be deployed in Japan’s southwestern Kumamoto prefecture by March, a year earlier than planned, as Japan accelerates its missile buildup in the region. In part due to Japan’s aging and declining population and its struggles with an understaffed military, the government believes unmanned weapons are essential. To defend the coasts, Japan will spend 100bn yen ($640m) to deploy “massive” unmanned air, sea-surface and underwater drones for surveillance and defense under a system called “SHIELD” planned for March 2028, defense ministry officials said.
For speedier deployment, Japan initially plans to rely mainly on imports, possibly from Turkey or Israel.
Tension with China grows
The budget announcement comes as Japan’s row with China escalates following Takaichi’s remark in November about Taiwan. The disagreement escalated this month when Chinese aircraft carrier drills near southwestern Japan prompted Tokyo to protest when Chinese aircraft locked their radar on Japanese aircraft, which is considered possible preparation for firing missiles. The Defense Ministry, already alarmed by China’s rapid expansion of operations in the Pacific, will open a new office dedicated to studying operations, equipment and other necessities for Japan to deal with China’s Pacific activity.
Two Chinese aircraft carriers were spotted in June almost simultaneously operating near the southern Japanese island of Iwo Jima for the first time, fueling Tokyo’s concern about Beijing’s rapidly expanding military activity far beyond its borders and areas around the disputed East China Sea islands.
In Beijing, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said the Takaichi government has “noticeably accelerated its pace of military buildup and expansion” since taking office.
“Japan is deviating from the path of peaceful development it has long claimed to uphold and is moving further and further in a dangerous direction,” Lin said.
Japan plans joint development of frigates and jets
Japan is pushing to strengthen its largely domestic defense industry by participating in joint development with friendly nations and promoting foreign sales after drastically easing arms export restrictions in recent years. For 2026, Japan plans to spend more than 160 bn yen ($1 bn) to jointly develop a next-generation fighter jet with Britain and Italy for deployment in 2035. There are also plans for research and development of Artificial Intelligence-operated drones designed to fly with the jet. In a major boost to the country’s defense industry, Australia selected Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in August to upgrade the Mogami-class frigate to replace its fleet of 11 ANZAC-class ships.
Japan’s budget allocates nearly 10 bn yen ($64 m) to support industry base and arms sales.
Meeting targets but future funding uncertain
The budget plan requires parliamentary approval by March to be implemented as part of a 122.3trn yen ($784bn) national budget bill. The five-year defense buildup program would bring Japan’s annual spending to around 10 trillion yen ($64 bn), making it the world’s third-largest spender after the U.S. and China. Japan will clear the 2% target by March as promised, the Finance Ministry said. Takaichi’s government plans to fund its growing military spending by raising corporate and tobacco taxes and recently adopted a plan for an income tax increase beginning 2027. Prospects for future growth at a higher percentage of GDP remain unclear. (Source: Defense News)
19 Dec 25. Colombia: Guerrilla attack against military base increases physical security, transit disruption risks. On 18 December, an armed attack against a military base in Aguachica (Cesar department) killed six soldiers and wounded 28 more, according to Minister of Defence Pedro Sánchez. The authorities have attributed the attack to the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group. Reports indicate that the ELN used cylinder bombs, explosive-laden drones, high-calibre firearms and improvised mortars to conduct the attack. The security forces have since launched operations to secure the area. The attack comes after the ELN conducted a paro armado (‘armed strike’) nationwide between 14 and 17 December. During the paro armado, the ELN killed five people over 50 separate attacks and roadblocks across 20 departments. Reports indicate that the paro armado impacted primarily Antioquia, Chocó, Cesar and Norte de Santander departments. In the immediate term, follow-up security forces operations in the Aguachica area will increase transit disruption and physical security risks. In the medium-to-long term, we assess that the risk of armed clashes and guerrilla (explosive) attacks near security forces’ positions will be sustained, significantly increasing asset and collateral damage risks. (Source: Sibylline)
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