Sponsored by Bertin Exensor
www.exensor.com
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
04 Dec 25. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Inconclusive talks will increase risk of renewed hostilities. On 3 December, reports emerged that the latest round of talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan had failed to produce a breakthrough. However, both sides have agreed to maintain the previously established ceasefire. Saudi Arabia mediated the most recent round last weekend. This follows earlier talks mediated by Qatar and Turkey, which also ended inconclusively. Tensions have remained high between Afghanistan and Pakistan, particularly after the recent alleged Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan as well as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad and Peshawar (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province). Pakistan has long accused the Afghan Taliban of sheltering the TTP. We assess that inconclusive talks will increase the risk of renewed hostilities along the border in the coming days. While there remains a possibility of further rounds of mediated dialogue, they are unlikely to resolve long-standing issues. This is because the Taliban is unlikely to concede on key issues, such as a genuine commitment to restrain the TTP. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Dec 25. Ethiopia: Funding restriction to Tigray government will increase unrest, conflict risks. On 2 December, local officials in Tigray confirmed that it had been two months since the regional government had received its funding from the federal government. The announcement comes amid escalating tensions between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which indirectly leads the Tigray Interim Authority (TIA; see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 1 September 2025). The federal government is unlikely to fully and unconditionally restore funding to the TIA before the 2026 general election, amid broader efforts to undermine support for the TPLF’s hardline factions. The funding restriction will almost certainly compound the TIA’s long-standing liquidity crisis, restricting its capacity to pay civil servants and provide basic services to internally displaced persons. This dynamic will likely exacerbate anti-government sentiment in Tigray and deepen polarisation along pro- and anti-TPLF lines, increasing the risk of aligned militant factions re-mobilising in the coming days and weeks. In this scenario, TPLF factions will likely attempt to take control of government offices, increasing the risk of clashes and exposure to crossfire, including in the regional capital Mekele. In the event of significant escalation in Tigray, the federal security forces will likely intervene to oppose TPLF hardliners, increasing the risk of conflict re-escalation in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Dec 25. Philippines tests new battle plan for fending off invaders alone. The Philippine military will test a new defense plan to be spearheaded by a new command, as officials here game out what it would take to repel invaders without immediate help from allies.
The exercises take place amid heightened security concerns over China’s aggressive actions in the West Philippine Sea and regional developments involving Taiwan.
“We are looking at all possible scenarios and we are incorporating those into the exercises, so we are prepared for any eventuality,” Philippine military Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. told reporters during the launch of the exercise on Nov. 4.
The annual military drill, known as the Armed Forces of the Philippines Joint Exercise Dagat-Langit-Lupa (AJEX DAGIT-PA), will include training on integrated air and missile defense operations, defending gas and oil platforms, land defense, and amphibious exercises aimed at retaking islands, airfields and seaports.
Officials told Defense News that planners and strategists have studied hundreds of conflict scenarios, including potential missile attacks, and crafted the training program to assess troop response and spot defense gaps.
Like previous editions, the exercises will be conducted in the country’s northern and western borders.
A segment will be held in Thitu Island or Pag-asa Island, a Philippine-controlled territory in the South China Sea that is home to around 400 Filipinos. Experts and military officials have identified Thitu as a likely initial target in an invasion.
The country’s armed forces, dubbed AFP, have conducted special operations and civilian defense training there. The agenda for this year includes naval surface fire support drills, but the military declined to confirm if these will accompany amphibious landing exercises.
Unlike previous iterations, this year’s edition will engage fewer troops with only 2,000 compared to last year’s 3,000. Instead, the military reserve forces, the Philippine Coast Guard, and the Philippine National Police will participate to complement end strength, Brawner said.
The agenda will also include training on cyber, electronic, and space-related warfare.
“These are not just simulations,” Brawner said. “The exercises are strategic rehearsals for real-world contingencies, validating our concepts of operations … we will also test out the new unilateral defense plan,” he added.
Since 2023, the Philippine military has officially shifted to external defense and last year released a Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) to guide its defense doctrine.
Details of the strategy remain sparse, however, and it’s uncertain how the military would operationalize this concept given its limited resources and capabilities.
The AFP revealed a shift toward a new “unilateral defense plan” called Bantay Kalayaan late last year to implement the defensive concept, which was tested under the previous AJEX DAGIT-PA training program.
The current module builds on lessons learned from last year, officials said, as it includes a more streamlined command-and-control unit solely for territorial defense – a significant move to reflect the expanding defense focus.
The AFP established its Strategic Command in late October, the lead participating unit in the ongoing exercise. The unit will be responsible for areas outside the purview of joint command units. This includes exclusive economic zones, occupied territories in the South China Sea, and the aerial domain.
Gen. Brawner suggested the AFP Strategic Command may become the principal commanding unit of the fighting forces in wartime.
“The battle staff in the GHQ (General Headquarters) cannot transform into a full-blown battle staff to fight the war,” Brawner said. “That is why I was convinced that we have to organize an AFP Strategic Command … and we rushed toward establishing it so they could be the main participant in this exercise,” he said.
While the Philippines has joined hundreds of joint military drills with allies, the internal military exercise is crucial in beefing up the country’s defense, as Filipino troops will be “fighting the war by ourselves in the first part,” Brawner said.
Brawner explained that, should war break out, the armed forces must hold out for at least a month before possible reinforcements from allies.
“This exercise is crucial so we can see the limit of our defense architecture. If war breaks out, we will be the first to defend ourselves,” Brawner said, adding that despite the scenario, the Philippines is “also expecting help from our ally under our mutual defense treaty.” (Source: Defense News)
03 Dec 25. Armenia-Turkey: Likelihood of land border reopening in coming months is increasing modestly. On 3 December, Bloomberg reported that Turkey is considering reopening its land border with Armenia – which has been shut since 1993 – within the next six months. Unspecified individuals familiar with the matter have argued that any such move would potentially bolster Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s position ahead of parliamentary elections in early June 2026. According to these sources cited by Bloomberg, if Pashinyan wins another term, he could work with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to formalise a peace agreement. The anonymous individuals argued that Turkey would appoint an ambassador to Armenia to restore diplomatic relations only after an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement is reached. In late November, Armenian and Turkish representatives held a second round of negotiations focused on restoring the Gyumri-Kars railway. While we cannot confirm the veracity of Bloomberg’s report, we assess that its findings and the regional developments in recent months modestly increase the likelihood of Turkey reopening its land border with Armenia in the medium term. However, Turkey conditions normalising ties with Armenia on the country reaching a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Consequently, any significant improvement in regional connectivity will likely hinge on Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Dec 25. Sudan Offers Russia Red Sea Base in Exchange for Arms. Sudan has proposed giving Russia its first African naval base, potentially at Port Sudan, in return for military equipment to fight the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia Moscow had initially backed, according to the Wall Street Journal. Under the agreement, Russia would gain mining concessions, while Sudan would receive anti-aircraft systems and other military hardware at preferential rates.
Military Watch Magazine says that the deal involves Sudan acquiring Su-30 and Su-35 fighter jets from Russia.
Officials said that while the deal would bolster Sudan’s military amid its ongoing conflict with the RSF, it could also heighten tensions with the U.S. and European Union given Russia’s strained relations with the West.
The reported agreement comes five years after Russia announced a nearly identical deal, which outlined a 25-year operation of a naval base capable of hosting 300 personnel and up to four vessels.
The earlier agreement also included automatic 10-year renewals unless either side raised objections. However, following the overthrow of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s new military ruling council placed the deal under review.
Sudan’s renewed engagement with Russia comes after the RSF captured El-Fasher, the capital of Darfur, in late October, consolidating control over much of western Sudan. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
02 Dec 25. China: General rare earth export licences signal relaxed supply for US non-defence sectors. Earlier on 2 December, reports claimed that China has permitted at least three rare earth magnet makers to export to selected customers based on its new export licensing regime. Media reports note that the Chinese producer JL MAG Rare Earth has received licences for most of its clients, while Ningbo Yunsheng and Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech have obtained licences for selected clients. JL MAG Rare Earth serves both US and EU clients, and all three firms sell to the automotive industry. China agreed to streamline the rare earth licensing regime under the recent US-China trade deal. The US claimed China will issue ‘general licences’ for rare earth exports to US end users and suppliers. Although the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has not used the same term, it admitted that China is designing general permissions. It is likely that China will further expand its licence grants to US manufacturers and relevant suppliers, despite retaining tighter vetting procedures for defence-linked sectors; however, this will remain contingent on stable China-US relations. Additionally, it is likely that broad grants of ‘general licences’ directly benefitting EU firms will be less forthcoming in the short term, considering ongoing trade negotiations between China and the bloc. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Dec 25. Sudan: Military setbacks are unlikely to prompt army to pursue peace; conflict escalation is likely. On 1 December, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured Babanusa (West Kordofan state). The RSF likely re-deployed military resources to Kordofan region’s fronts following the capture of El Fasher (North Darfur state). This operation, coupled with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)’s difficulties in re-supplying its forces by air, facilitated Babanusa’s capture. This capture violates the RSF’s self-declared three-month humanitarian truce, which was announced following the SAF’s rejection of a US-backed ceasefire proposal. Despite its military setbacks, the SAF has continued to indicate that it will pursue a military resolution to the conflict. The SAF recently stated that it will reject any ceasefire proposal by the Quad mediation group (comprised of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the US), which would leave the RSF intact. Instead, the SAF has revived its offer to provide Russia with a Red Sea naval base in exchange for anti-aircraft systems and fighter jets. While the repeatedly stalled Russian naval base proposal is unlikely to materialise in the medium term, it will likely serve to pressure the US to adopt a course that is more favourable to the SAF. This will delay the prospects for a ceasefire until the SAF has significantly improved its battlefield position. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Dec 25. China-Japan: Confrontation near disputed islands in East China Sea highlights elevated tensions. Earlier on 2 December, there was a close encounter between a Japanese fishing vessel and two China Coast Guard (CCG) ships near the uninhabited Senkaku Islands (Japan) / Diaoyu Islands (China), which are controlled by Japan and claimed by China. This comes amid elevated tensions following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s controversial remarks on Taiwan last month (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 26 November 2025). Airlines have cancelled more than 40% of the scheduled flights from China to Japan in December after the Chinese authorities warned citizens against visiting Japan. We assess that there is a high risk that both countries will take further retaliatory actions. On 1 December, China warned that Japan will ‘bear all the consequences’ if Takaichi does not retract her comments (which she is highly unlikely to do). If tensions escalate further, China will likely increase its naval and CCG deployments around the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, driving the risk of an accidental collision and a standoff. This will lead to growing public calls for boycotts of Japanese goods in China. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Dec 25. China’s military firms struggle as corruption purge bites, report says.
• Summary
• Revenue declines buck global uptrend amid corruption crackdown
• Downturn adds to uncertainty over China’s military modernisation
• Revenues of world’s 100 largest arms firms hit record in 2024, study says
Revenues at China’s giant military firms fell last year as corruption purges slowed arms contracts and procurement, according to a study released on Monday by a leading conflict think tank.
The Chinese declines contrast with strong revenue growth globally for big arms and military-services companies, fuelled by wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and global and regional tensions, the research by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found.
“A host of corruption allegations in Chinese arms procurement led to major arms contracts being postponed or cancelled in 2024,” said Nan Tian, director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme.
“This deepens uncertainty around the status of China’s military modernisation efforts and when new capabilities will materialise.”
CHINA’S REVENUES DOWN 10%, JAPAN’S UP 40%
The People’s Liberation Army was one of the main targets of a broader corruption crackdown ordered by President Xi Jinping in 2012, reaching the upper levels of the military in 2023 when its Rocket Force was targeted.
Eight top generals were expelled from the ruling Communist Party on graft charges in October, including the country’s number two general, He Weidong. He had served under Xi on the Central Military Commission, China’s supreme military command organisation.
Asian and Western diplomats say they are still trying to gauge the impact of the crackdown on China’s ongoing military rise and how far down it reaches through the command chain.
Revenues of China’s top military firms fell 10% last year, while those in Japan surged 40%, Germany 36% and U.S. revenues rose 3.8%, SIPRI data shows.
Bar chart showing percentage change in the arms revenues of companies in the SIPRI Top 100, by country 2023-24
Revenues of the world’s 100 largest arms firms rose 5.9% to a record $679 bn, the report said, while China’s fall was enough to make Asia-Oceania the only region to post a revenue decline among its top arms firms.
China’s weapons revenue fell despite three decades of rising defence budgets in Beijing’s growing strategic rivalry with the United States, Asia’s traditional military power, and tensions over Taiwan and the hotly disputed South China Sea.
MID-, LONG-TERM INVESTMENT, MODERNISATION TO CONTINUE
The buildup is bearing fruit as China deploys the world’s largest naval and coast guard fleets – including a potentially advanced new aircraft carrier – a host of new hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapons and air and sea drones.
Revenue fell at AVIC, China’s largest arms maker, land-systems producer Norinco and aerospace and missile manufacturer CASC, all state-owned, according to the SIPRI research. Norinco experienced the steepest revenue decline, falling 31% to $14 bn.
Corruption-related personnel changes at the top of Norinco and CASC sparked government reviews and project delays, while deliveries of AVIC’s military aircraft slowed, the research found.
China’s defence ministry and the three companies did not immediately respond to faxed requests for comment from Reuters.
The timeline of advanced systems for the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, which handles its growing arsenal of ballistic, hypersonic and cruise missiles, could be exposed, along with aerospace and cyber programmes, said SIPRI researcher Xiao Liang.
This adds to uncertainties over the PLA’s target of getting key capabilities and war-fighting readiness in place for its 100th anniversary, Liang said. The PLA’s forerunner, Mao Zedong’s Red Army, was founded in 1927.
“However, in the medium and longer term, sustained investment in defence budgets and political commitment behind modernisation will continue, albeit with some programme delays, higher costs and tighter control of procurement,” Liang said. (Source: Reuters)
01 Dec 25. American and Syrian forces conduct airstrikes on ISIS weapons storage facilities, US military says. The U.S. military said on Sunday that it recently destroyed 15 sites containing Islamic State weapons caches in southern Syria.
U.S. Central Command said it and Syrian forces identified and destroyed the storage facilities across the Rif Damashq province during multiple airstrikes and ground detonations that were conducted from November 24 to November 2
“The combined operation destroyed over 130 mortars and rockets, multiple assault rifles, machine guns, anti-tank mines, and materials for building improvised explosive devices,” CENTCOM said in a statement.
Islamic State, the militant group that once imposed hardline Islamist rule over ms of people in Syria and Iraq, was largely crushed by a U.S.-led coalition several years ago, but has managed to rebuild and regroup.
Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander, said on Sunday the operation “ensures gains made against ISIS are lasting.”
U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to do everything he could to make Syria successful after November 10 talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al Qaeda commander who until recently was sanctioned by Washington as a foreign terrorist.
Syria carried out nationwide pre-emptive operations targeting Islamic State cells in the days before the talks in Washington, the Syrian government said at the time.
One of Sharaa’s chief aims in the meeting with Trump was to push for full removal of the toughest U.S. sanctions against the country.
During the meeting, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a 180-day extension of its suspension of enforcement of the so-called Caesar sanctions, but only the U.S. Congress can lift them entirely. (Source: Reuters)
01 Dec 25. New look Australian Defence Delivery Agency to shake up nation’s capability acquisition. Acting Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles and Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy have announced a new look Defence bureaucracy to tackle the nation’s growing defence acquisition pipeline. The Albanese government has announced its most sweeping overhaul of Defence procurement in decades, unveiling plans for a new agency designed to tighten project delivery, strengthen accountability and ensure Australia gets maximum value from its record defence investment.
The reforms, framed as essential to meeting Australia’s increasingly complex strategic environment, will see the creation of a stand-alone Defence Delivery Agency, tasked with streamlining how the nation buys, builds and sustains military capability.
Minister Marles stressed the importance of standing up the Defence Delivery Agency, saying, “The establishment of the Defence Delivery Agency will elevate the professionalism and strategic focus of Defence capability acquisition and sustainment. It will drive stronger contestability, more accurate cost estimation, and clearer accountability for the delivery of major projects.”
Since coming to office in May 2022, the government has committed an extra $70 bn over the decade, the largest peacetime boost to defence spending in Australian history. Much of that funding is earmarked for major acquisition and sustainment programs, placing intense pressure on Defence to deliver outcomes on time and on budget.
The acting Prime Minister added, “As the Albanese government makes the biggest ever peacetime investment in Defence, it is important that we put in place the structures and systems to ensure Australia’s Defence Force can deliver the capabilities we need at speed and within budget.”
Under the changes, the new agency will consolidate three of Defence’s most important capability-delivery groups: the Capability Acquisition and Sustainment Group, the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Group, and the Naval Shipbuilding and Sustainment Group.
Supporting this, a newly appointed National Armaments director will head the agency, advising government on acquisition strategies and overseeing the delivery of major capability and sustainment projects once approved by cabinet.
By merging them under one structure with its own budget authority, the government aims to cut internal duplication, accelerate delivery schedules, and strengthen the national defence industrial base.
Crucially, the agency will report directly to ministers, an elevation designed to provide clearer lines of accountability for multi-bn-dollar procurement programs that are central to Australia’s future deterrence posture.
Minister Conroy expanded on the acting Prime Minister’s statement, saying, “The increasing complexity of Defence capabilities, systems and platforms requires a systematic rethink of the capability development and delivery system. This is about setting Defence up for success so we can modernise the ADF in line with the National Defence Strategy, while ensuring we spend taxpayers’ money wisely.”
In tandem with the procurement overhaul, Defence will centralise its capability development functions, tightening how new proposals are assessed, prioritised and integrated across the Australian Defence Force. The government said this will ensure investment decisions are aligned with an increasingly focused, integrated force design.
The reforms are expected to deliver stronger project and budget discipline, sharper cost estimation, and improved oversight across the full life cycle of defence capability.
Work on designing and standing up the Defence Delivery Agency will begin immediately, with extensive consultation planned across industry and other stakeholders, recognising the critical role of Australian industry in delivering sovereign capability.
Minister Conroy added, “The new agency will help ensure our industrial base is resilient, innovative and aligned with our strategic priorities. It will create more opportunities for Australian businesses and workers to contribute to Australia’s national security.”
The government said the overhaul builds on earlier improvements made since 2022 and is aimed squarely at ensuring the ADF has the tools, technology and industrial backing needed to safeguard Australia in a rapidly changing strategic environment.
(Source: Defence Connect)
01 Dec 25. India to pitch new arms deal with Russia during Putin visit, Bloomberg News reports. India plans to start discussions toward the purchase of Russian fighter jets and a missile defense shield during President Vladimir Putin’s visit this week, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday, citing people with knowledge of the matter. India and Russia have a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership under which discussions for the purchase of Su-57 fighter jets and an advanced version of the missile defense shield S-500 are expected, the report said. Reuters could not immediately verify the report. (Source: Reuters)
01 Dec 25. Taiwan airline seeks role in ‘whole of society’ defence with surveillance flights to counter China.
• Summary
• Companies
• Taiwan seeking closer integration of civilian firms into defence
• Charter airline offers help to track Chinese ships
• Taiwan’s military stretched trying to monitor Chinese movements
Flying over the blue waters off Taiwan’s east coast, a light aircraft equipped with a powerful U.S.-made radar slung under its belly tracks Chinese warships, collecting data its operator is keen to provide to Taipei’s security forces.
Small Taiwanese operator Apex Aviation, better known for pilot training and charter flights, is pitching the surveillance flights to a government that has started engaging civilian firms in developing new technologies for its “whole of society resilience” initiative.
The government has invited businesses, research groups and other organisations to take on more active roles, including backing up communications and logistics, shoring up cyber defences and, potentially contributing to surveillance and intelligence-gathering.
While common in countries such as the United States, this joint military-civilian approach is new for Taiwan, whose armed forces are increasingly hard-pressed responding to daily Chinese incursions in the skies and waters around the island.
Taipei has said it aims to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2030 and will introduce a $40 bn supplementary budget, including “significant” new U.S. arms purchases.
Apex is seeking a role in that build-up. But unlike companies that have received defence contracts so far, the airline wants to run its surveillance operation in-house, while remaining open to transferring equipment to authorities.
“These Chinese drills are happening more and more frequently, getting closer and closer. That’s what creates that sense of urgency. If we don’t jump in now, we might not even get the chance later,” Apex Chairman Wilson Kao told Reuters.
Apex declined to give estimates on potential revenue from such a deal.
OPEN TO NEW IDEAS
Taiwan’s defence ministry has so far been cautious about external partners, telling Reuters it is able to effectively monitor Chinese activities and currently has no plans for cooperation. But it said it was open to new ideas.
“The ministry welcomes discussions on ‘public-private collaboration’ to strengthen national defence build-up,” it said in a statement.
Taiwan’s coast guard said it is working to boost its own reconnaissance capacity and will prioritise drones before gradually expanding the effort to include manned aircraft.
Apex has spent more than T$400 m ($13.07 m) to convert an 11-seater Italian-made Tecnam P2012 Traveller propeller plane into a reconnaissance aircraft equipped with a U.S.-made synthetic aperture radar under its fuselage.
The company wants to feed data from the radar, which can detect objects as small as 0.09 square metres, to Taiwan’s military and the coast guard as they track Chinese ships around the island.
The business opportunity goes beyond Taiwan.
Apex said it could also market the relatively low-cost patrol service to friendly governments in the region that monitor Chinese activity, adding it can quickly build a reconnaissance fleet with both aircraft and drones.
LEGAL UNCERTAINTIES
Experts said authorities must establish a legal basis to allow civilian aircraft to engage in reconnaissance and also raised concerns about whether they would be made vulnerable to Chinese forces.
“Patrol aircraft involves the use of enforcement. Whether enforcement can be handed off to the private sector is a matter of legal debate,” Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at Taiwan’s top military think tank, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, said.
But the cost of flying a light aircraft on a reconnaissance mission could be as low as one-tenth of a military plane.
While Apex only operates in Taiwanese air space, one of its medical charter flights to Kinmen, which sits next to China’s coast, was repeatedly approached by Chinese military planes for three consecutive days in June.
The incident, condemned by Taiwan’s government, raised concerns about the safety of civilian aircraft facing China’s stepped up “grey-zone” harassment tactics.
Kao said Apex’s board had deliberated potential risks before taking on the project.
“I’m just doing the right thing. I’m just steadily moving forward. And I won’t back down just because of any harassment,” he said at Taitung airport on Taiwan’s east coast.
SEA DRONES AT THE FOREFRONT
Apex has been buoyed by a growing government push for companies with limited or no defence pedigree to develop products for military use.
One of the initiative’s biggest highlights is a new generation of sea drones developed by remote control model car, aircraft and boat producer Thunder Tiger.
The company’s SeaShark 800 drone can carry 1,200 kg (2,600 lbs) of explosives and travel up to 500 km (310 miles), and featured prominently at a summer “beauty show” where operators offered their wares to Taiwan’s military.
One senior Taiwan security official said joint military-civilian initiatives were an idea the government needed to take seriously.
“The operational stress on troops is extremely high. The Communist military is creating new forms of pressure, so we must develop new approaches to counter them.” (Source: Reuters)
28 Nov 25. Defence spending to increase, but gradually – Motshekga. South Africa’s defence budget will increase, but gradually, with a 50% increase planned over the next five years, Defence and Military Veterans Minister Angie Motshekga has said.
She was speaking at the Exercise Vuk’uhlome 2025 Distinguished Visitors’ Day at the SA Army Combat Training Centre on Wednesday 26 November. Motshekga acknowledged the Department of Defence (DoD) is facing challenges – primarily financial ones – and these are being addressed by Cabinet, Parliament, and the DoD. “We are doing all we can in our power to sustain this pride of the nation,” she said of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). There has been much talk of doubling defence spending to 1.5% of GDP in recent times, particularly since President Cyril Ramaphosa issued such a directive in 2023. According to the Department of Defence, it is underfunded by at least 50%. Motshekga cautioned that doubling spending to 1.5% of GDP can’t be done overnight and she does not want to increase spending too quickly as this will create all sorts of problems. Doubling the defence budget is achievable in phases, she said, with spending increasing to more than 1% of GDP taking at least five years, Earlier this year, Motshekga in reply to a parliamentary question posed by Maliyakhe Shelembe of the Democratic Alliance, stated that spending 2% of GDP on defence would take 30 years. Motshekga replied that “the incremental growth of the defence funding will happen over six multi Medium Term Strategic Framework Periods.” Each of these is five years long. The Minister added that defence spending would grow from the 0.67% at present to 1.35% over a period of six years and hit 2.40% on year 30. Experts agree that suddenly increasing defence spending will not fix the SANDF’s issues. Songezo Zibi, Chairperson of the Standing Committee on Public Accounts (SCOPA) and leader of Rise Mzansi, earlier this year said that any increased defence funding for the SANDF is unjustifiable without urgent reform, generational renewal, and a credible national security strategy. “It is difficult to back significantly additional funding when the armed forces and the Department of Military Veterans do not manage the little money they get in accordance with the basic governance and the law,” he said.
“That the SANDF needs more money is beyond dispute,” said defence analyst Ricardo Teixeira. “The real question is how to spend it without wasting it. Throwing money at the problem is tempting but could be dangerous. Without the capacity to plan appropriately and account for and maintain equipment, a sudden influx of funding could easily be squandered. The outcome would be another round of headlines about mismanaged contracts, irregular procurement and expensive barely used hardware.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
28 Nov 25. Tajikistan-Afghanistan: Periodic border clashes will highly likely persist; escalation risk remains low. On 27 November, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that three Chinese citizens were killed in an attack launched from Afghanistan near the Afghan-Tajik border on the night of 26 November. The ministry did not disclose who it suspects orchestrated the attack, but it condemned the actions of ‘terrorist’ and ‘criminal’ groups on the Afghan side of the border. According to the ministry, the attack involved firearms and a drone equipped with grenades. Reports claim that the deceased were employees of a private Chinese-linked gold mining company. The Tajik authorities rarely comment on border incidents along Tajikistan’s frontier with Afghanistan, though the incident marks the second deadly attack on Chinese workers in the region in a year. We assess that the Afghan-Tajik border will highly likely remain a flashpoint for occasional clashes over the long term, with gold mining activity to represent a key trigger. Despite entrenched tensions between the Tajik and the Afghan Taliban authorities, the risk of escalation along the shared border will remain low over the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
A CNIM Group Company
———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-