Sponsored by Bertin Exensor
www.exensor.com
———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
27 Nov 25. Dominican Republic-US: Military co-operation, material support will reduce regional tensions. On 26 November, President Luis Abinader announced he will allow the US to temporarily use the San Isidro Air Base and the capital Santo Domingo’s Las Américas International Airport (SDQ) as part of Washington DC’s regional counter-narcotics operations. The US will be permitted to refuel aircraft and transport equipment and technical personnel at these facilities. During the same press conference, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced plans to temporarily deploy additional military aviation assets to San Isidro and Las Américas, including C-130 cargo aircraft and KC-135 Stratotanker refuelling craft. The measure demonstrates growing Dominican support for the US’ regional operations. In recent months, the US has sought to expand its logistical network across the Caribbean region to support ‘Operation Southern Spear’, including by reactivating military facilities in Puerto Rico and conducting flights from El Salvador. In the short-to-medium term, bolstering the US’ regional military capabilities and expanding logistics networks will highly likely sustain strikes against alleged drug trafficking boats and surveillance flights along Venezuela’s coastline. Aviation and maritime disruption risks will possibly increase during such operations, particularly if the US imposes security notices restricting air or sea traffic. Regional tensions between the US and the Dominican Republic will decrease in the short term. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Nov 25. Nigeria: Declaration of security emergency is unlikely to moderate long-term attack, KFR risks. On 26 November, President Bola Tinubu declared a nationwide security emergency following a wave of violent attacks and mass kidnapping-for-ransom (KPR) incidents. Tinubu ordered the military and the police to recruit additional personnel; he has also deployed the forest guard to target armed groups (known locally as bandits) in rural areas of central and northern Nigeria. These additional deployments will likely facilitate successful operations to capture and kill armed groups (locally known as bandits) and Islamist militants, likely including airstrikes on rural positions by the Nigerian Air Force (NAF). This will also likely include an expansion of assistance from Nigeria’s security partners (including the US) under multilateral military co-operation agreements. However, the entrenched nature of Nigeria’s conflicts and the ineffectiveness of the security apparatus (as Nigeria’s military is already deployed in 30 of 36 states) will likely undercut such efforts. We assess that while the operations will likely record limited tactical successes, they are unlikely to improve the security environment substantially. This will sustain long-term attack and KFR risks for NGO staff based in central and northern Nigeria, particularly in Borno, Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara states. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Nov 25. Guinea-Bissau: Military coup will significantly disrupt operational continuity. On 25 November, members of the Presidential Guard detained President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and announced the formation of a military government. The coup comes shortly after the 23 November presidential election, which Embaló claimed to have won despite widespread allegations of fraud. The Presidential Guard also detained several high-profile government and opposition figures, including former prime minister Domingos Simões Pereira and leading opposition presidential candidate Fernando Dias. The newly formed junta subsequently implemented a nationwide curfew and announced the indefinite closure of Guinea-Bissau’s land borders and airspace. Although local media reports indicate that conditions within the capital Bissau are stable, the security forces have adopted an augmented posture throughout the city, establishing numerous checkpoints and roadblocks. These measures will almost certainly remain in place in the coming days, critically disrupting operational and supply chain continuity, particularly through the Port of Bissau. In the coming days, the junta will likely face increasing international pressure to announce a plan to transition back to civilian rule. Failure to do so will increase the likelihood of regional organisations, including the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), implementing sanctions and trade restrictions. Additionally, given public support for opposition figures, protest risks in Bissau will rise if they remain in custody. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Nov 25. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Alleged Pakistani airstrikes will increase risk of renewed hostilities. Overnight on 24 to 25 November, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Khost province (Afghanistan), killing at least nine children and a woman according to Afghan Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid. Other airstrikes allegedly took place in Kunar and Paktika provinces (Afghanistan). Mujahid stated on X that Afghanistan would ‘respond appropriately at the right time’. So far, Pakistan has neither claimed responsibility for, nor denied, the airstrikes. The airstrikes follow Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks in Pakistan targeting the Federal Constabulary (FC) headquarters in Peshawar (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province) and another attack targeting a judicial court in the capital Islamabad. The airstrikes also come amid a fragile ceasefire and elevated tensions between Islamabad and Kabul. Pakistan has long accused the Afghan Taliban of sheltering the TTP. We assess that the airstrikes will significantly increase the risk of renewed hostilities, with violent border clashes likely in the coming days and weeks. Additionally, the TTP is likely to escalate its activities inside Pakistan, with a realistic possibility of attacks targeting major urban centres like Peshawar and Islamabad. (Source: Sibylline)
25 Nov 25. Taiwan: Proposed rise in defence spending would strengthen military capabilities, relations with US. On 25 November, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te announced plans to introduce a TWD 1.25 trillion (USD 39.29 bn) supplementary defence budget to improve the island’s asymmetric military capabilities. This aligns with the president’s objective to increase defence spending to 3.3% of GDP by 2026 and 5% by 2030, amid the rising military threat from China. However, there is a realistic possibility that Lai will be unable to pass the supplementary budget through the Legislative Yuan (i.e. Taiwan’s unicameral legislature), as his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in the minority. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party will likely seek to cut the proposed spending. However, if the budget is passed in whole or in part, the Taiwanese government will highly likely increase military procurement from the US, thereby increasing its credibility with President Donald Trump’s administration, which emphasises allies spending more on defence. Furthermore, a rise in defence spending will make a Taiwan-US trade agreement more likely, which the island seeks to lower tariffs on Taiwanese exports. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Nov 25. Sudan: Ceasefire proposal is highly unlikely to resolve conflict; violence risks remain elevated. On 24 November, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) unilaterally declared a three-month humanitarian ceasefire in Sudan. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have not responded to the declaration at the time of writing. The RSF likely proposed the truce to further two primary objectives: firstly, to consolidate recent territorial gains and reassess its capabilities before launching further offensives on SAF-controlled territory; secondly to disrupt the SAF’s momentum in contesting the RSF’s control of key strategic locations in the Kordofan region. As such, the SAF is unlikely to accept the ceasefire declaration unconditionally, undermining the prospects for implementation. Rather, the SAF and allied militias are highly likely to continue conducting offensive operations in Kordofan, with a particular focus on relieving the RSF’s sieges on Babanusa (West Kordofan state), Dalang and Kadugli (both South Kordofan state). Even if the SAF agrees to the truce in principle, it is highly unlikely that the SAF’s and RSF’s complex networks of allied communal militias will adhere to the truce. As such, violence, looting and sexual violence will likely remain widespread in western Sudan, sustaining threats to locally engaged staff. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Nov 25. China criticises Japan’s plan to deploy missiles on island near Taiwan.
- Summary
- Japan says plan to deploy missiles near Taiwan ‘steadily moving forward’
- China calls the plan an attempt to ‘provoke military confrontation’
- Taipei says Japan has the right to protect Japanese territory
- China’s military has put out fiery videos
China called Japan’s plan to deploy missiles on an island near Taiwan a deliberate attempt to “create regional tension and provoke military confrontation” on Monday, as a diplomatic dispute simmers between the two nations.
The remarks come amid their worst diplomatic crisis in years, after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said this month a hypothetical Chinese attack on democratically governed Taiwan could trigger a military response from Tokyo.
“Right-wing forces in Japan are… leading Japan and the region towards disaster,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular press briefing. Beijing “is determined and capable of safeguarding its national territorial sovereignty,” she added.
VITRIOLIC STATE MEDIA COMMENTARIES
Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said on Sunday that plans were “steadily moving forward” to deploy a medium-range surface-to-air missile unit at a military base on Yonaguni, an island about 110 km (68 miles) off Taiwan’s east coast.
“The move is extremely dangerous and should raise serious concerns among nearby countries and the international community,” especially in the context of Takaichi’s earlier remarks, Mao said on Monday.
China had responded to her comments with vitriol in state media commentaries, bans on Japanese seafood, a halt in Japanese movie releases, and a warning to citizens not to visit Japan.
Beijing views Taiwan as its own territory, and has not ruled out the use of force to take control of it, though the island’s government rejects Beijing’s claim and says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future.
In Taipei on Monday, Taiwan Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu told lawmakers that Japan, as a sovereign nation, had the right to take steps needed to protect the security of its territory, pointing out how close Yonaguni was to Taiwan.
“Japan’s strengthening of its relevant military facilities is basically helpful to maintaining security in the Taiwan Strait,” he added.
“So, of course, this is helpful to our national interests as Japan has no territorial designs or hostility towards Taiwan.”
On Sunday, Koizumi said the missile deployment aimed to protect Yonaguni, adding, “We believe that having this unit in place will actually lower the chances of an armed attack against our country”.
‘IF WAR BREAKS OUT TODAY’
In mid-November China’s defence ministry warned Japan of a “crushing” military defeat if it used force to intervene over democratically-governed Taiwan. A number of command centres of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army followed suit, putting out a series of fiery music videos on social media in the past week. The PLA Rocket Force, which oversees China’s conventional and nuclear arsenal, on Sunday showed footage of the country’s intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and soldiers readying their rifles in a music video titled “If war breaks out today, this is my response!” In a video posted by the PLA Navy’s South Sea Fleet on Wednesday, a group of soldiers holding rifles and wearing camouflage face paint called out: “If fighting breaks out tonight, comrades, are you ready?”
“Artillery has been calibrated, ammunition is in place, and (we) have locked on the coordinates,” one of the soldiers said.
The PLA Navy’s North Sea Fleet, in another music video posted last Monday, showed warships and aircraft firing missiles and hitting targets in fiery blasts.
“Come, enemy, let’s have a showdown; I’ve already chambered my bullets; no matter how cunning you are, or how ferocious, I will bury you all the same,” the song went. (Source: Reuters)
24 Nov 25. Pakistan: Attack on security complex in Peshawar underscores elevated militancy risks. Earlier on 24 November, three suicide bombers attacked the headquarters of the paramilitary Federal Constabulary (FC) in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. One of the attackers detonated his explosives at the gate of the headquarters, killing three FC officers and injuring at least six civilians. The attack occurred as FC personnel were participating in morning parade drills. The headquarters, located in a densely populated area of Peshawar, has since been cordoned off. While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, it comes amid an overall uptick in militant activity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan has long accused the Afghan Taliban regime of sheltering the TTP, with tensions between the two countries particularly elevated. The incident also follows a suicide attack in the capital Islamabad two weeks earlier. We assess that there is a realistic possibility of further attacks targeting the security forces in major cities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including Peshawar, driving heightened security measures. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Nov 25. Readout of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s Meeting With Federal Republic of Nigeria National Security Advisor Mr. Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. Assistant to the Secretary of War for Public Affairs and Senior Advisor Sean Parnell provided the following readout: On Nov. 20, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth welcomed a delegation of security leaders from the Federal Republic of Nigeria led by their National Security Advisor, Mr. Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, to the Pentagon. Both leaders discussed ways to make tangible progress on stopping violence against Christians in Nigeria and combatting West African jihadist terrorist groups. Secretary Hegseth emphasized the need for Nigeria to demonstrate commitment and take both urgent and enduring action to stop violence against Christians and conveyed the Department’s desire to work by, with, and through Nigeria to deter and degrade terrorists that threaten the United States. (Source: U.S. DoD)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
A CNIM Group Company
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————