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13 Nov 25. South African Defence budget increases by R1.8bn but remains stretched. The Department of Defence (DoD) has had its budget for 2025/26 increased by R1.8 bn but the adjusted allocation (R59bn) is barely sufficient for improving equipment serviceability or achieving flying hour and sea hour targets. The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was released by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to Parliament on Wednesday 12 November, revealing the R1.888bn increase: R657 m more for Force Employment, R1bn more for Landward Defence, R53m more for Military Health Support, and R54m more for Air Defence. The defence vote (Vote 23) noted an additional R439.078m allocated for expenses related to the implementation of the governmentwide early retirement programme to facilitate the exit of South African National Defence Force (SANDF) members. The allocation will cover expenses related to financial incentives and medical continuation. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
13 Nov 25. India-Pakistan: Risk of armed conflict will increase should New Delhi attribute blast to Islamabad. On 12 November, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet announced that an investigation into the recent blast in Delhi union territory was underway. The police are continuing to search for individuals with connections to the ‘white collar’ terror cell in Faridabad (Haryana state). The authorities have also arrested several individuals in Assam state for ‘offensive’ social media posts following the blast in Delhi union territory. Given the possible existence of a wider network behind the explosion, we assess there is a realistic possibility of further such incidents – particularly in the National Capital Region (NCR) – in the coming weeks. However, the heightened security measures and ongoing raids will likely limit the scale of any such incident. Nonetheless, while India has not officially implicated any foreign power thus far, there is a realistic possibility that New Delhi will blame Pakistan, particularly given the alleged links of the arrested suspects to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGuH). Any such attribution would increase the risk of armed conflict between India and Pakistan. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Nov 25. Syria-US: Extended sanctions freeze will support investment, though long-term concerns will persist. On 10 November, the US Treasury extended its suspension of sanctions against Syria (imposed under the Caesar Act) for 180 days following a White House meeting between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and US President Donald Trump. Syria also entered a co-operation agreement (likely intelligence-based) in a bid to defeat Islamic State (IS), while the US reaffirmed its support for a Syria-Israel security agreement. The extension will likely continue to ease trade and investment restrictions, while also supporting gradual economic recovery, improving the delivery of humanitarian aid and ultimately moderating long-term socio-economic health risks in Syria. However, a full repeal by the US Congress remains unlikely in the short term (due to concerns over al-Sharaa’s jihadist past), especially in the run-up to the upcoming US midterm election cycle. We assess this will sustain investor uncertainty in the medium term. Meanwhile, co-operation against IS will likely involve a formalised, expanded intelligence partnership rather than a direct military pact, moderating Turkish security concerns and reducing regional conflict risks. A security agreement between Syria and Israel remains possible in the coming months, easing security risks in Syria’s south-western governorates. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Nov 25. Joint Statement from the Kingdom of Bahrain, United Kingdom and United States Defence Working Group. A Joint Statement from the Kingdom of Bahrain, United Kingdom and United States Defence Working Group (DWG). On November 1, 2025, representatives from the Kingdom of Bahrain and the United Kingdom, along with the United States, convened the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement (C-SIPA) Defence Working Group (DWG) annual meeting hosted by the Kingdom of Bahrain. The meeting was attended by HH Shaikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa, National Security Advisor, Secretary General of the Supreme Defence Council of the Kingdom of Bahrain, together with Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, Chief of the Defence Staff of the United Kingdom and Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of the United States Central Command.
Joint Statement
DWG members welcomed the United Kingdom’s accession to C-SIPA and commended its wide-ranging contribution to advancing collective security efforts, noting that the UK’s expertise and longstanding commitment to regional and global stability significantly reinforce the strategic objectives of the Agreement. Participants reiterated the commitment of member states under Article (II) of the Agreement to treat any external aggression against the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of any of the parties as a matter of grave concern to the other parties. They also expressed the importance of embracing a joint stance against hostile actors and malign activities that threaten regional security and international stability. The discussions underscored that C-SIPA’s robust framework and strategic coherence are set to strengthen a dependable deterrence posture and position it as a distinguished platform for advancing collective security. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
11 Nov 25. “Despite a large sovereign industry, there is a high level of dependence on foreign components and materials in Russian combat aircraft production. The industry is therefore vulnerable to disruption and delays because of the precise requirements of Sukhoi sub-systems.” This is according to Vulnerabilities in Sukhoi Production: Clipping Russia’s Wings, a new RUSI research report by Nikolay Staykov and Dr Jack Watling, which analyses Russia’s combat aircraft production ecosystem and the fragility of the Sukhoi supply chain, and considers the implications for global security and defence. The report says that Russia’s combat aircraft sector is struggling to maintain output and quality under sanctions, even as it remains a key pillar of Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. The research outlines how dependencies on foreign machine tools, semiconductors and alloys mean manufacturing is vulnerable to targeted sanctions and attritional strikes. It says Sukhoi’s production of Su-30, Su-34, Su-35 and Su-57 aircraft has already “seen a range of disruptions largely arising from delays in the delivery of sub-systems from its complex supply chain.” The report concludes that NATO members have a strategic opportunity to degrade Russia’s aerospace capacity through strengthening sanctions implementation. It also calls for Western industry to improve its offerings in global combat aircraft export markets that then emerge, to better compete with China.
Key Findings
- Russia’s combat aviation remains a key threat. The report says: “Russian combat aircraft, while less capable than NATO or Chinese equivalents, fulfil distinct roles for the Russian military that present challenges to Russia’s adversaries, such that the size and capability of the VKS [Russian Aerospace Forces] should be a matter of concern.”
- High dependence on imported systems and components. “Within the second- and third-tier supply chains of Sukhoi production are a wide range of dependencies on foreign imports of materials, machine tooling and specialised equipment.”
- Limited success in import substitution. “Vulnerabilities in the Russian aerospace industry are likely to persist, as Russia has struggled and, in some cases, failed to achieve import substitution. In some areas dependence on foreign-made systems is increasing.”
- Declining export competitiveness and the risk of brain drain. “Russia’s competitiveness on the international market could fade over time and this trend could be accelerated if a brain drain can be encouraged from Russian industry, while disruption to production could undermine export customers’ faith in the reliability of Russian products, starving OAC [United Aircraft Corporation] of orders.”
Key Recommendations
- Tighten sanctions across the supply chain. “Realising this opportunity would require closing the gaps in sanctions to cover second- and third-tier suppliers. Enforcement of sanctions, moreover, must be properly enforced such that Russia cannot reliably obtain key equipment, spare parts and materials from Europe.”
- Link sanctions to Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign. “As Ukraine’s growing long-range strike campaign expands, it is also likely to target those production facilities the output of which threatens Ukraine. When such strikes occur … it will present opportunities for Ukraine’s international partners to disrupt Russia’s ability to acquire replacement machine tools.”
- Encourage the emigration of skilled Russian engineers. “It is desirable to build pathways for Russian engineers to emigrate. Although many will be approached by Russia’s Special Services and should therefore not be recruited in the defence sector, they represent skilled labour in the civilian sector.”
- Invest in Western aerospace export offerings to compete better with China. “It is necessary for NATO members to consider their offer to compete with Russia and more importantly China in those countries that must soon look to replace ageing combat air fleets. At present, NATO countries often fail on the grounds of price and, in some cases, politics.”
Conclusion
The report concludes that Russia’s aerospace industry is under mounting pressure from sanctions, supply disruption and workforce decline, yet continues to underpin Moscow’s battlefield operations and global influence. The research says that NATO states and partners should intensify coordinated economic, military and industrial pressure to weaken Russia’s long-term combat aviation capacity. It says that by addressing Western dependencies on Russia – such as the refining of titanium – and targeting the opaque networks supplying Russian avionics, policymakers can accelerate the degradation of Russian airpower. For Western defence industries, the research says that any vacuum left by a decline in Russian combat aircraft exports should not be ceded to Beijing. The report recommends that European aerospace companies “examine how they can develop an offer to compete with China to prevail in the event that Russia is displaced from key markets”.
Nikolay Staykov is a journalist, editor and open-source intelligence specialist focusing on anti-corruption, financial investigations and military supply chains. He co-founded Bulgaria’s Anti-Corruption Fund (ACF) and was recognised by the US Department of State as a Global Anti-Corruption Champion in 2021. Dr Jack Watling is Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). This report draws on open-source intelligence, company filings, and trade data, complemented by interviews with industry personnel and cross-referenced procurement records. For more information and media inquiries please email
10 Nov 25. Thailand-Cambodia: Ceasefire will likely hold despite landmine explosion, peace deal suspension. Earlier on 10 November, Thailand suspended the implementation of a joint agreement signed with Cambodia under the supervision of US President Donald Trump in the capital Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) on 26 October. This comes after a landmine injured four Thai soldiers along the border with Cambodia in Kantharalak (Sisaket province) at around 0930hrs (local time). Thailand had previously accused Cambodia of planting new landmines, while the latter have maintained that these are remnants from previous conflicts. The Thai authorities stated that the preliminary findings suggest the landmines were newly planted; the incident remains under investigation at the time of writing. Although Cambodia has pledged its ‘unwavering commitment’ to peace, Thailand will halt the release of 18 detained Cambodian soldiers, which was due on 21 November. While this incident has increased the risk of renewed hostilities, we assess that the ceasefire (which both countries agreed to in July) is likely to hold in the short term, not least due to the threat of US tariffs. However, mutual mistrust and the continued presence of heavy weaponry along the border (as the withdrawal process began last week) will highly likely delay the reopening of the border. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Nov 25. Ethiopia: Rising tensions increase risk of clashes between federal and Tigray forces in coming weeks. On 7 November, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leader Debretsion Gebremichael claimed that the federal Ethiopian forces had conducted a drone strike on Tigray forces near Milka military camp (Tigray region) along the Afar regional border. No casualty figures have been released and the claim has not been verified, but Gebremichael has stated the incident breaches the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. The development comes after the Afar government claimed that Tigray forces had temporarily captured six villages in Afar’s Magale district on 5 November. The Tigray Interim Authority (TIA) has denied the allegation, but it is likely that cross-border clashes did take place between TPLF forces and the Tigray Peace Forces (TPF). The TPF are associated with the ousted TPLF member and interim Tigray president Getachew Reda and are based along the Afar border (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 1 September 2025). With the TIA closely aligned with the TPLF, rising tensions will increase the likelihood that the federal forces will move to exert greater control over Tigray region in the coming weeks. Attempts to deploy large forces to Tigray or replace the TIA leadership will likely trigger clashes between the federal and Tigray forces, increasing exposure to crossfire in the regional capital Mekele and other urban centres in eastern and southern Tigray. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Nov 25. Pakistan-Afghanistan: Border fire exchange underscores risk of renewed hostilities. On 6 November, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that ‘firing was initiated from the Afghan side, to which our security forces responded immediately in a measured and responsible manner’. Afghan Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid stated that ‘unfortunately, this afternoon Pakistani forces once again opened fire on Spin Boldak, causing concern among the local population’. The statements come as the two sides exchanged fire along the border between Chaman (Balochistan province, Pakistan) and Spin Boldak (Kandahar province, Afghanistan). This incident occurred while representatives from Afghanistan and Pakistan were engaged in a third round of talks in Istanbul (Turkey), aimed at finalising a truce following deadly clashes last month. Negotiations reached an impasse last week after each side accused the other of being unwilling to co-operate on finalising ceasefire details. We assess that the risk of ceasefire violations is highly likely to persist despite ongoing talks, with a realistic possibility of sporadic border clashes in the coming days. This will sustain the risk of renewed hostilities and continue to restrict cross-border travel and trade. Additionally, given the elevated mistrust and recent incendiary rhetoric from both sides, long-term peace along the border is unlikely in the near term. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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