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06 Nov 25. Ecuador-US: Increasing military co-operation would decrease security forces risks, regional tensions. On 5 November, the US expressed interest in establishing Department of Homeland Security (DHS) offices in Ecuador. The announcement came during a meeting between US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa at Elay Alfaro International Airport (MEC) in Manabí province (Ecuador). The announcement comes ahead of a referendum on 16 November, in which Ecuadorians will vote on whether to permit the return of foreign military bases to their territory, together with three other questions. Previously, the US military operated a forward operating location (FOL) at Eloy Alfaro airport, until Ecuador changed its constitution to ban foreign military bases in 2009. President Noboa supports the return of US military presence to Manabí province in order to strengthen Ecuador’s fight against drug trafficking and organised crime. However, current polling indicates that voters will possibly reject the proposal. This interest in DHS offices in Ecuador signals deepening bilateral security co-operation between the US and Ecuador, decreasing regional tensions. We assess that if the offices are established or if the referendum on foreign bases passes, enhanced US support for Ecuador’s counter-narcotics operations will decrease security forces risks. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Nov 25. Russia: Threat of nuclear war remains very low despite presidential order for potential nuclear tests. On 5 November, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed officials to draft proposals for a possible test of nuclear weapons. This comes after US President Donald Trump ordered the military to resume testing nuclear weapons in late October. Russian Minister of Defence Andrei Belousov told President Putin that recent actions from the US meant that it was advisable to ‘prepare for full-scale nuclear tests’ immediately. However, the Kremlin later claimed that President Putin has not set a deadline for any proposals; it remains unclear whether the tests will involve warhead tests (which have not taken place in decades). Moscow typically increases its nuclear rhetoric amid periods of heightened tensions with the West, as part of its reflexive control campaign. In September, President Putin offered an extension of the last remaining nuclear arms deal (the New START Treaty) with the US in September. However, there have been limited indications that the treaty will be renewed before it expires on 5 February 2026. While current tensions are increasing the likelihood of nuclear arms activity, including testing and proliferation, we assess that the chance of a major nuclear escalation remains remote. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Nov 25. Sudan: Peace agreement is highly unlikely in coming months, sustaining armed conflict risks. On 5 November, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) rejected a US proposal for a three-month ceasefire and submitted a counter-proposal calling for the dismantling of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The US, along with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (known collectively as the Quad) have intensified pursuit of a peace deal in recent months. However, both the RSF and SAF are highly unlikely to substantively engage in peace talks until they believe they have achieved an optimal military position. This deadlock has been exacerbated by the RSF’s capture of El Fasher (North Darfur state), which has effectively partitioned western Sudan. The SAF is highly unlikely to accept any form of agreement that gives the RSF space to consolidate its control over western Sudan and preserves the RSF’s influence in national institutions over the long term. As such, a substantive peace agreement or any prolonged ceasefire is highly likely in the coming months. This will sustain critical humanitarian, human rights and security risks into 2026, particularly across the Kordofan region, where conflict is likely to increasingly shift following El Fasher’s capture. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Nov 25. Cambodia-Thailand: Withdrawal of heavy weaponry from border will reduce armed conflict risks. On 3 November, Thai officials confirmed that Thailand and Cambodia had begun withdrawing heavy weapons and carrying out de-mining operations along the disputed border. This is in line with the agreement the two countries signed last week in Malaysia. The withdrawal of heavy weapons is set to occur in three phases, starting with rocket systems. The first phase will take three weeks, with a meeting to be held on 15 November to assess its implementation; the whole process is scheduled to run until the end of the year. The successful completion of the process will ease armed conflict risks along the border. However, a spokesperson for the Thai government claimed that the 18 detained Cambodian soldiers will not be released and that the border will not be opened until Cambodia is deemed to adhere to the agreement. Given that the re-opening of the border is not imminent, we assess that socio-economic health risks will persist in Cambodia in the short term, as the country is reliant on the import of essential goods and parts for manufacturing supply chains from Thailand. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Nov 25. Nigeria-US: Threats of unilateral military action unlikely to materialise in short term. On 1 November, US President Donald Trump threatened to deploy US military forces to Nigeria due to the government’s alleged failure to protect Christians from ‘Islamic terrorists’. An adviser to Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu subsequently rejected Trump’s allegations but stated that the government would welcome US co-operation in counter-insurgency operations. Christians are largely exposed to violence in Nigeria stemming from the ongoing Islamist insurgency in northern Nigeria as well as intercommunal conflict over land use in the Middle Belt and southern regions. Given the entrenched nature of these conflicts, it is highly unlikely that the Nigerian government will be able to take sufficient action to negate criticism from the US. However, the US is unlikely to engage in unilateral airstrikes or ground operations due to existing bilateral and multilateral military co-operation agreements. Rather, the US will possibly intensify its activities under existing agreements that focus on repelling the ongoing Boko Haram and Islamic State–West Africa Province (ISWAP) insurgencies in the short term. There is also a realistic possibility Tinubu’s government will seek to mitigate criticism by encouraging greater US investment in Nigeria’s energy and mineral sectors, amid ongoing trade negotiations. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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