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02 Oct 25. Russia: New decree indicates willingness to conduct retaliatory seizures of Western assets. Bloomberg reported on 1 October that Russia would possibly nationalise and quickly sell foreign assets under a new privatisation procedure in the event that the EU seizes Russian assets. President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on 30 September allowing for the expedited sale of state-owned assets. The order limits pre-sale valuations to ten days and speeds up the state’s registration of ownership. It specifies that the measure comes in response to sanctions against Russia. An unspecified Russian government insider disclosed that the decree applies to foreign and Russian companies. The EU is currently seeking to provide Ukraine with a loan worth approximately EUR 140 bn (USD 160 bn) using immobilised frozen Russian bank assets (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 29 September 2025). Ultimately, the decree is almost certainly aimed at deterring the EU from progressing with such plans. The development underscores our long-standing assessment that the use of frozen Russian funds to support Ukraine will increase the risk of Russian retaliatory seizures of Western assets. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Oct 25. Australia-Papua New Guinea: Military alliance pact underscores Canberra’s regional clout, ambitions. Earlier on 2 October, the Papua New Guinean cabinet approved the Puktuk treaty with Australia. The treaty involves a mutual defence pact, joint military training exercises and a pathway for up to 10,000 Papua New Guineans to serve in the Australian army. The treaty will likely come into effect by the end of 2025 once it is ratified by the parliaments of both countries. Papua New Guinea had delayed agreeing to the pact in recent weeks, allegedly due to disagreements within its cabinet, as well as political pressure from China. Over the coming months, Australia is likely to seek similarly robust agreements with Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu as it attempts to compete for influence with China in the region. We assess that most Pacific Island countries will avoid aligning overtly with either Australia or China in order to maximise inward investment from both (mainly in infrastructure and policing). (Source: Sibylline)
30 Sep 25. Iraq Transition. Statement by Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell on Iraq transition. In accordance with the President’s guidance and in alignment with the U.S.-Iraq Higher Military Commission and the joint statement issued on Sept. 27, 2024, the United States and Coalition partners will reduce its military mission in Iraq. This reduction reflects our combined success in fighting ISIS and marks an effort to transition to a lasting U.S.-Iraq security partnership in accordance with U.S. national interests, the Iraqi Constitution, and the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement. This partnership will support U.S. and Iraqi security and strengthens Iraq’s ability to realize economic development, foreign investment, and regional leadership. The U.S. Government will continue close coordination with the Government of Iraq and Coalition members to ensure a responsible transition. (Source: U.S. DoD)
29 Sep 25. SANDF in freefall. The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is falling apart, with the collapse of state entities and underfunding at the core of its demise. This is according to Chris Hattingh, the Democratic Alliance’s spokesperson for Defence and Military Veterans, who told Biznews that the SANDF is in tatters. He said that the SANDF faces significant challenges stemming from poor leadership, corruption, historical underfunding, and misalignment of national defence objectives. This was echoed by Leleti Maluleke from Good Governance Africa, recently arguing that “despite its strategic importance, it faces serious problems that threaten its operational effectiveness.”
“Underfunding, inadequate resources, maintenance failures and internal discipline issues have weakened the force, raising questions about its ability to fulfil its obligations.”
“The SANDF has almost 200 aircraft, and 16 will be available on a good day. Our submarine fleet is also basically gone, and I don’t think it can be recovered,” said Hattingh.
Earlier in the year, the DA reported that the Air Force would need roughly R8 bn to restore key platforms like Rooivalk and Gripen jets to service. Similarly, for the Navy to refit (a complete maintenance overhaul) its submarines and frigates, it will require roughly R700 m per vessel.
“We’ve also got a rapidly ageing defence force, with the outflow of older people having surpassed the number of younger people entering the SANDF and Air Force.”
In addition to this, Hattingh argues that South Africa’s defence force is operating without direction. He explained that the defence review acts as a road map for the SANDF, asking questions such as what type of defence force is needed, what kind of equipment is necessary, and how the SANDF should modernise. According to the defence review, implementing the first milestone would arrest the SANDF’s decline, the second would rebalance it, the third would capacitate it, the fourth would allow it to respond to challenges, and the fifth would give it limited war capability.
“Not a single milestone from the 2015 Defence Review was implemented, which basically means that the SANDF is rudderless,” Hattingh said.
“Once we become defenceless, we become an easy target. There’s a saying that there will always be a capable military on our soil, whether it’s our own, it’s our own choice.”
The decline of the military industry
South Africa has a R57bn defence budget. Dr Moses Khanyile, director of the Centre for Military Studies at Stellenbosch University, said that the current defense budget is inadequate to maintain a modern military capable of effectively addressing both internal and external threats. Khanyile is calling for increased investment in research and development within local defence industries to ensure that the country does not remain vulnerable. Hattingh also said that while South Africa may still have some of its defensive fleet available, that which remains is falling behind technologically.
“We’re not where we were in 2015. The world has moved on, and so has the defence industry,” he said.
“We had the research and development capacity in Denel and Armscor, but we’ve lost most of that because of state capture and cadre deployment.”
He highlighted that state-owned aerospace and weapons manufacturer Denel was a major player in the international arms community.
“Before the state capturers got their greedy hands on Denel in 2015, it was a top company,” Hattingh said.
This period saw irregular activities, including a R229m hull fabrication contract awarded to Gupta-linked VR Laser in November 2014, instead of the Denel subsidiary LMT as originally specified, which the Special Investigating Unit (SIU) described as “fraught with irregularities.” Denel executives also breached internal policies and the PFMA by awarding R2.8m in bursaries for pilot training to three students, and by acquiring R10 m in legal services from unapproved provider Khampha Attorneys. Additionally, improper financial assistance of R334m was given to LMT, violating both the PFMA and the Companies Act. These and other actions pushed Denel from profitability into years of losses, with cash flow problems so severe that the company struggled to pay full salaries, prompting many employees to seek work in the Middle East
“They were an original equipment manufacturer of note in the world. There’s still a lot of Denel’s technology left after state capture, but the entity has lost a lot of its capability.”
Hattingh says the same is true for the Armaments Corporation of South Africa (Armscor), the SANDF’s arms procurement agency. However, Armscor also faces the issue of the SANDF’s underfunding, with 68% of its budget being allocated to salaries, leaving only 32% for operations, equipment, maintenance, and everything else. This leaves very little to be spent on military infrastructure and arms. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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