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17 Sep 25. Sri Lanka: Firearms audit highlights concerns of military personnel’s links to organised crime. Earlier on 17 September, local media reports claimed that the Sri Lanka Army had almost completed a comprehensive audit of weapons stored in the army’s camps nationwide. This exercise aims to identify the type and number of weapons missing amid concerns that defected and active military personnel are increasingly linked to organised crime groups. Earlier in the year, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake stated that 73 T56 assault rifles had gone missing and were believed to be in the possession of a criminal group; around half have since been recovered, with 13 soldiers arrested in connection with the case. There has been an increasing crackdown on organised criminal activity in the past year (primarily involved in drug trafficking), with military personnel deployed to Southern and Western provinces in late August to counter spikes in activity. While most related violence will likely remain inter-gang activity, the military authorities’ involvement will sustain security risks if not stymied. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Sep 25. China-Philippines: Collision in disputed South China Sea highlights elevated maritime tensions. On 16 September, a collision occurred between vessels from China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. Chinese officials accused the Philippines of ‘deliberately ramming’ one of its coast guard vessels, while the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) claimed that the China Coast Guard (CCG) used a water cannon against its ships. A PCG vessel reportedly sustained damage and a crew member was injured. The incident took place near Scarborough Shoal, which is claimed by the Philippines but controlled by China. On 10 September, the State Council of China announced plans to establish a nature reserve on the islet, which were rebuked by the Philippines and the US. We assess that China and the Philippines will increase their coast guard presence around the shoal over the coming weeks, driving the potential for further close encounters and/or collisions. However, both sides remain intent on avoiding a wider armed conflict in the medium term, reducing the risk of material disruption to regional shipping lanes. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Sep 25. Uganda-South Sudan: Bilateral investment underscores close economic, military ties. On 16 September, the Ugandan finance ministry presented a plan to parliament to borrow over USD 350m from regional lenders to develop power grid interconnection projects with South Sudan. Parliament will highly likely approve the plan in the coming weeks, underscoring Uganda’s rising status as an energy exporter, following the completion of the Karuma Hydropower Project, which increased Uganda’s national generation capacity to over 2000 megawatts (MW). We assess that the investment will likely consolidate relations between Uganda and South Sudan, facilitating further economic integration and military co‑operation in the short- to medium term. If implemented, the grid integration project will possibly improve energy security conditions in South Sudan in the medium-to-long term; however, effective interconnection will likely require substantial investment in South Sudan’s weak transmission infrastructure, which significantly undermines the national grid’s reliability and resilience. Firms tendering development and auxiliary contracts will almost certainly face exposure to significant corruption and clientelism, increasing governance concerns and reputational risks. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Sep 25. Congo (DRC): Government-aligned militia proposal will compound security risks in eastern regions. Earlier on 17 September, government-aligned militia forces (known as Wazalendo) sent a memo to President Félix Tshisekedi demanding several concessions from the government to retain their loyalty. The Wazalendo’s demands include that their political leaders are integrated into state institutions and participate in upcoming peace talks with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group in Qatar. While Tshisekedi has yet to respond, he is unlikely to accept the proposal, which would further complicate efforts to formalise a peace agreement. The government will highly likely be unwilling to devolve power to the Wazalendo, which includes numerous disparate factions with broadly transactional loyalty. However, increasing tensions over the Wazalendo’s political influence will likely undercut military co-operation with the Congolese military (FARDC), increasing risks of factional defection. Increasing fragmentation of the Wazalendo will drive risks of clashes with the FARDC and among different Wazalendo factions. We assess that this will compound risks of attacks, clashes and sexual violence in eastern DRC, including for locally engaged staff and NGO personnel. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Sep 25. China-Philippines: Collision in disputed South China Sea highlights elevated maritime tensions. On 16 September, a collision occurred between vessels from China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. Chinese officials accused the Philippines of ‘deliberately ramming’ one of its coast guard vessels, while the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) claimed that the China Coast Guard (CCG) used a water cannon against its ships. A PCG vessel reportedly sustained damage and a crew member was injured. The incident took place near Scarborough Shoal, which is claimed by the Philippines but controlled by China. On 10 September, the State Council of China announced plans to establish a nature reserve on the islet, which were rebuked by the Philippines and the US. We assess that China and the Philippines will increase their coast guard presence around the shoal over the coming weeks, driving the potential for further close encounters and/or collisions. However, both sides remain intent on avoiding a wider armed conflict in the medium term, reducing the risk of material disruption to regional shipping lanes. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Sep 25. Armenia-Turkey: Improvement in regional ties, connectivity is unlikely despite engagement. On 12 September, Armenian and Turkish representatives responsible for normalising the historically strained relationships between the two countries met for the sixth time. The engagement failed to result in an immediate, significant breakthrough. According to the Armenian foreign ministry, the special representatives agreed to ‘expedite’ the opening of border crossings, an agreement that they reached in July 2022. The two sides also agreed for their respective authorities to conduct technical studies for the restoration of the Gyumri-Kars railroad. The railway, which has been closed since 1993, runs from the Turkish city of Kars (Kars province) to Armenia’s second-largest city, Gyumri (Shirak province), before connecting to the Georgian capital Tbilisi. Turkey continues to condition the normalisation of relations with Armenia on separate Armenian efforts to make peace with Azerbaijan, a close regional ally of Turkey. As Turkey will likely maintain this stance for the foreseeable future, we assess that a significant improvement in Armenian-Turkish ties and regional connectivity is unlikely in the medium-to-long term. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Sep 25. Pakistan: Recent attacks underscore elevated militant threat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. On 13 September, at least 19 soldiers were killed in separate militant attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, near the border with Afghanistan. In one incident, militants targeted the military convoy in South Waziristan, killing 12 soldiers. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has claimed responsibility for the attack; the group also claimed it had captured Pakistan military personnel’s weapons. This comes as the TTP has ramped up attacks in the province, particularly against the military, since the Taliban took over in Afghanistan. The uptick in militant activity also comes amid Islamabad’s strained relations with Kabul, which Pakistan has accused of providing safe havens to the TTP. Given the frequent attacks, we assess that the military will likely launch a counter-terrorism operation in the coming weeks, with a realistic possibility that strikes will target TTP hideouts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as in Afghanistan. In the short term, this will increase the risk of attacks by TTP, as well as clashes with the security forces at the border, driving border closures and disrupting trade and travel. It will also likely drive tensions with Afghanistan. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company
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