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04 Sep 25. Thailand: Long-term stability risks will persist despite likely formation of minority government. Thailand’s House of Representatives is set to vote for a new prime minister at around 1000hrs (local time) on 5 September. Security around Sappaya-Sapasathan (the meeting place of the National Assembly) in the capital Bangkok will likely be heightened, driving limited localised transport disruption. Ahead of the vote, the ruling Pheu Thai party announced it would nominate Chaikasem Nistiri for the role. This comes after Pheu Thai’s request to the king to dissolve the parliament was reportedly rejected earlier this week. We assess that the conservative opposition Bhumjaithai party’s leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, is most likely to prevail, even though the current coalition does not enjoy a majority. This is due to a confidence and supply agreement between Bhumjaithai and the People’s Party (PPLE) that was announced on 3 September (which includes a promise to hold elections within four months). Given the likely formation of a minority government and prospects for new elections, political uncertainty will highly likely persist. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Sep 25. Iran says US missile demands block path to nuclear talks. The path to nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States is not closed but U.S. demands for curbs on Iranian missiles are obstructing prospects for talks, a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday. A sixth round of Iran-U.S. talks was suspended after the start of a 12-day war in June, in which Israel and the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran retaliated with waves of ballistic missiles against Israel.
“We indeed pursue rational negotiations. By raising unrealisable issues such as missile restrictions, they set a path that negates any talks,” the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, said in a post on X.
Western countries fear Iran’s uranium enrichment programme could yield material for an atomic warhead and that it seeks to develop a ballistic missile to carry one. Iran says its nuclear programme is only for electricity generation and other civilian uses and that it is enriching uranium as fuel for these purposes. (Source: Reuters)
03 Sep 25. China’s Xi projects power at military parade with Putin and Kim.
- Summary
- Russia’s Putin, North Korea’s Kim join Xi Jinping in Beijing
- Tiananmen Square parade shows off latest military hardware
- Event marks anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War Two
- Western leaders have largely shunned Beijing spectacle
- Xi said world faces peace or war in keynote speech
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned the world was facing a choice between peace or war at a massive military parade in Beijing on Wednesday, flanked by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in an unprecedented show of force. The event to mark 80 years since Japan’s defeat at the end of World War Two was largely shunned by Western leaders, with Putin and Kim – pariahs in the West due to the Ukraine war and Kim’s nuclear ambitions – the guests of honour. (Source: Reuters)
02 Sep 25. China: Security measures will be heightened during landmark military parade in Beijing. On 3 September, China will hold its largest-ever military parade in the capital Beijing to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender at the end of World War 2. The parade will begin at 0900hrs (local time) at Tiananmen Square and proceed along Chang’an Avenue. It is expected to last approximately 70 minutes. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will display its most advanced military hardware, including hypersonic weapons and unmanned underwater drones. Around 26 foreign heads of state, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, will attend. There will be an elevated security force presence across the capital with additional checkpoints around the city centre, driving travel disruption. Road diversions and subway line closures will also be highly likely. We assess that the authorities will almost certainly increase content moderation and censorship online, while virtual private networks (VPNs) will likely be unreliable during this period. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Aug 25. Mozambique, Rwanda sign Status of Forces agreement 4 years after first troop deployment. Mozambique and Rwanda signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) on Wednesday in Kigali, establishing the legal framework for the Rwandan troops deployed to support counter-terrorism operations in Cabo Delgado, the office of President Daniel Chapo announced in a statement. The agreement was signed by the defence ministers of the two countries, Juvenal Marizamunda of Rwanda and Cristóvão Chume of Mozambique, during President Chapo’s working visit to Rwanda, which began on Wednesday. The Head of State is accompanied by ministers from key sectors of his government, including Defence, Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Development. This is the first time the signing of a SOFA has been publicly announced to regulate the operations of Rwandan forces in Mozambique, who were first deployed to Cabo Delgado in July 2021. Initially, the contingent numbered around one thousand soldiers and police officers, but this has reportedly grown to about five thousand. A SOFA governs issues such as privileges and immunities, jurisdiction over offences committed by military personnel, customs duties, and administrative arrangements for bases. It does not grant foreign forces the right of presence but instead regulates their operations once a legal basis for their deployment has been established. The absence of a SOFA for more than four years of Rwandan military presence in Cabo Delgado – and in Nampula, where Mozambican Defence Forces receive training – exposes the secrecy surrounding the original agreement. Signed under former President Filipe Nyusi, the arrangement was never submitted to Parliament for ratification, and essential details, such as the duration of the deployment and terms of its renewal, remain undisclosed. Rwandan media cite President Paul Kagame as stressing that it is Africa’s mission to fight jihadist insurgencies on the continent, warning that outsourcing this responsibility to external actors would not build lasting peace or development. The stance reinforces Rwanda’s projection as a continental military power. The Status of Forces Agreement comes as insurgents linked to the Islamic State continue to stage attacks. On Monday 25 August, jihadist militants captured and killed two men in Uvilili village, about 30 kilometres south of TotalEnergies’ Afungi camp in Palma district. The renewed wave of attacks has prompted TotalEnergies to tighten security, instructing subcontractors to keep their staff within the camp perimeter. Mozambique’s Defence and Security Forces have deployed troops to the area, but Monday’s assault demonstrates that the insurgent threat remains active. According to local sources, the victims from Uvilili were found in the nearby bush while carrying out routine farming activities. The Islamic State claimed responsibility on Tuesday, stating via its propaganda channels that “caliphate soldiers captured and killed three Christians”. Unlike on previous occasions, the group did not publish images. There is no evidence that the victims were, in fact, Christians. Such claims form part of IS propaganda portraying itself as sparing Muslims.
“It is true they killed two people. The insurgents encountered them in the bush, while many others remained in the village, which is not far from the spot,” a local resident told MOZTIMES.
Another resident said the area where the victims were killed is a known insurgent corridor. “That forest has always been a preferred route for insurgents. They use it to reach the coast to collect fish and, on their return, pass through the same path inland.” Since August, insurgents have carried out raids on several Palma villages, including Maputo, Mute, Maganja and Pundanhar, targeting both civilians and military positions. Also on Monday, insurgents killed four civilians in the village of Mapate, Muidumbe district, Cabo Delgado. Between 20 July and 3 August 2025, intensified attacks by non-state armed groups in Muidumbe, Ancuabe and Chiure displaced about 57 000 people (13 300 families). (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
29 Aug 25. Thailand: Removal of prime minister will drive political uncertainty in coming weeks. Earlier on 29 August, the Constitutional Court dismissed Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister. It ruled that she had violated ethical standards in relation to a leaked call with the former Cambodian prime minister, Hun Sen. Paetongtarn has accepted the court’s decision, which will likely placate groups calling for her removal and reduce immediate unrest risks. The verdict, which we assessed as the most likely outcome , means that the House of Representatives (lower house) will have to elect a new prime minister. Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai Party will likely nominate Chaikasem Nitisiri, while Anutin Charnvirakul from the opposition conservative Bhumjaithai Party will likely also try and secure enough support. The fragile nature of the current ruling coalition means the result of the election is uncertain. There is a realistic possibility that the next government will have a low level of stability, given the tense political environment, sustaining uncertainty and policy stagnation risks. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Aug 25. India: Security will be significantly heightened in Bihar following militant alert. On 28 August, local media reported that security had been tightened across Bihar state after intelligence alleged that three Pakistani members of the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militant group had infiltrated the state through Nepal earlier this month. The police have issued photographs of the individuals and announced a reward for information leading to their capture. Over the coming months, senior politicians, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are set to campaign in Bihar ahead of the state’s legislative assembly elections, which are due to take place in October or November. There will almost certainly be a heightened security force presence at airports, border checkpoints, tourist sites and other transportation hubs. We assess that the security forces’ enhanced counter-terrorism capabilities will mitigate the risk of a mass-casualty attack. However, any such incident would substantially elevate tensions with Pakistan, which India typically blames for terrorist attacks in its territory, driving the risk of renewed hostilities. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Aug 25. Thriving Japan defence partnership boosting UK jobs and investment. The Defence Secretary met Japanese PM Ishiba and his counterpart, Minister Nakatani, while welcoming the Carrier Strike Group deployment to Tokyo. New figures reveal millions of pounds of investment and thousands of British jobs created through the UK-Japan defence relationship as Defence Secretary John Healey visits Japan for the first time. The Defence Secretary announced today (29 August) that the UK’s Future Combat Air System programme supports over 4,500 British jobs across the UK, including in the South West, North West and Scotland. At the core of the programme is the trilateral Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) partnership between the UK, Japan and Italy to deliver a next-generation combat aircraft. Industry research and development spending has also increased by more than £100 m to over £700 m, demonstrating how international partnerships drive UK investment and skilled employment. The significant progress made by GCAP was acknowledged in a joint statement issued following a meeting between the Defence Secretary and his Japanese counterpart, Minister Nakatani. The defence partnership between the UK and Japan directly supports the government’s Plan for Change, kickstarting economic growth at home through defence. The Defence Secretary also welcomed HMS Prince of Wales and the wider Carrier Strike Group into Tokyo and addressed its crew, strengthening the UK’s partnership with Japan and demonstrating the government’s commitment to keeping Britain secure at home and strong abroad. The Royal Navy flagship is hosting the two-day Pacific Future Forum, an international summit bringing together defence and industry leaders to help shape responses to the defence challenges facing the UK and its allies.
Defence Secretary, John Healey MP said: “The UK-Japan partnership is one of the strongest in the Indo-Pacific and continues to deliver real benefits for both countries through programmes like GCAP.
It was a privilege to welcome the sailors, soldiers and aviators on board HMS Prince of Wales to Japan and thank them for their tireless work on this deployment. The Carrier Strike Group helps the UK to strengthen alliances and cement new partnerships, ensuring the UK is secure at home and strong abroad. The visit by the Carrier Strike Group forms part of Operation Highmast, the UK’s largest naval deployment in a generation, starting over four months ago and involving nearly 4,000 personnel across the Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force.” HMS Prince of Wales exemplifies British naval engineering excellence, carrying up to 24 F-35B Lightning II fighter jets in the largest concentration of fifth-generation aircraft ever deployed by the Royal Navy. Operation Highmast showcases the UK’s enduring commitment to security of the Indo-Pacific and beyond, engaging with 30 countries through exercises, operations, and visits across the Mediterranean, Middle East, South East Asia, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Australia. The visit builds on unprecedented military cooperation between Britain and Japan, with the UK being the first European partner to exercise bilaterally on Japanese soil through Exercise Vigilant Isles. RAF and Royal Navy personnel continue to strengthen interoperability with Japanese forces, including the historic first landing of a UK F-35B fighter on a Japanese ship earlier this month. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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