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07 Aug 25. Congo (DRC): Further clashes between security forces, CPR are likely, driving displacement risks. On 6 August, the Congolese security forces (FARDC) announced the surrender of approximately 60 militants affiliated with the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CPR), which is led by the formerly Uganda-aligned rebel leader Thomas Lubanga. This follows a period of sustained clashes across several localities in Djugu territory (Ituri province) that have triggered displacement southwards to Bunia (Ituri). The clashes likely reflect attempts by the CPR to capitalise on the FARDC’s engagement against the IS-aligned Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) elsewhere in Ituri. As such, further CPR attacks and clashes with the FARDC are likely in the coming months, sustaining elevated attack and kidnap-for-ransom (KFR) risks during overland movement (particularly along the N27 highway). In addition, further clashes will highly likely drive additional waves of displacement to Bunia, intensifying pressure on aid resources. Recent displacement has already driven elevated insecurity in the city, with several shootings reported in the past fortnight. As such, we assess that additional displacement will elevate security risks for NGO staff and assets in Bunia in the coming months, including attacks on aid depots and convoys. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Aug 25. Togo: Renewed anti-government protests will increase unrest, travel disruption risks. On 9 August, numerous civil society groups plan to hold anti-government demonstrations in the capital Lomé to memorialise civilians killed by the police during protests in June and to reiterate their opposition to the indefinite extension of President Faure Gnassingbé’s rule. The protests will likely begin at Place Yéssouvito de Bè-Gakpoto at 1100hrs (local time) and move through Bè‑Kpota and Bè-Hédjé towards Lavista Park. The demonstrations are highly likely to disrupt movement along major thoroughfares connecting the Lomé beachfront to Lomé–Tokoin International Airport (LFW), driving travel delays. The police are highly likely to adopt an elevated posture in southern Lomé and employ heavy-handed tactics to disperse protesters, increasing bystanders’ potential exposure to tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. The authorities will also likely further restrict access to internet and telecommunications services to limit attendance, disrupting communications with on-the-ground staff. We assess that the risk of protest-related unrest, including arson, looting and vandalism, will be particularly elevated in Bé, increasing the threats to staff and assets therein.(Source: Sibylline)
06 Aug 25. UK Carrier Strike Group visit to Tokyo underlines UK-Japan Strategic Partnership and Indo-Pacific commitment. HMS Prince of Wales, flagship of the UK Carrier Strike Group (CSG), will make a port call to Tokyo from late August to early September as part of Operation HIGHMAST, the Royal Navy’s eight-month deployment to the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan. The deployment reinforces the UK’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific as outlined in the government’s Plan for Change, supporting the mission to keep Britain secure at home and strong abroad while fostering the international partnerships essential for economic growth and national security. The visit of CSG to Japan , symbolises the close alignment of strategic interests and values shared between the UK and Japan, and representing an opportunity to deepen UK-Japan defence cooperation, enhance interoperability through joint activities, and engage in dialogue on regional challenges. The deployment also embodies the deepening partnership between the UK and Japan, demonstrating the unprecedented cooperation established through our enhanced global strategic partnership, including the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), and the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP).
Strategic partnership in action
As each other’s closest security partners in Europe and Asia respectively, the UK and Japan share fundamental values and face common challenges. The CSG visit to Japan, and in particular the port visit to Tokyo by HMS Prince of Wales, marks a significant milestone in the multi-layered cooperation spanning politics, defence, economy, and culture that defines the modern UK-Japan relationship.
British Ambassador to Japan Julia Longbottom said:
The visit of HMS Prince of Wales to Tokyo underlines the UK’s strong commitment to a secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific, while showcasing the remarkable depth of our partnership with Japan. Together, as trusted allies, we are strengthening cooperation across defence, economy, and culture. This visit demonstrates our joint determination to safeguard regional stability, and our shared ambition to deliver innovation, prosperity, and a sustainable future for the next generation.
Multi-day programme of engagement
The Tokyo port visit will feature a programme of events taking place over multiple days, designed to strengthen bilateral cooperation and regional partnerships. Key events will include the prestigious Pacific Future Forum, bringing together defence, security and industry leaders from across the region to discuss shared security challenges, from future technology to economic security.
A Defence & Security Industry Day will showcase British defence capabilities and innovation, providing opportunities for UK companies to demonstrate world-leading technologies and explore new partnerships with Japanese counterparts across advanced sectors including space, cyber and emerging technologies.
Global deployment of unprecedented scale
Operation HIGHMAST represents the most ambitious UK naval deployment in a generation, involving nearly 4,000 British personnel across the Royal Navy (2,500), Royal Air Force (592), and British Army (900). The eight-month deployment will cover over 26,000 nautical miles, visiting more than 40 countries and undertaking over 70 engagements, exercises and operations.
The deployment showcases true international partnership, with 12 nations supporting the CSG with ships or personnel. Norway is providing a warship for the entire duration of the deployment, whilst Canada, Spain, and New Zealand have also contributed vessels, demonstrating that the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions is fundamentally indivisible.
Showcasing British innovation and creativity
HMS Prince of Wales exemplifies the UK’s world-leading naval engineering and integrated operational capabilities, demonstrating advanced military readiness and technological superiority. The carrier uniquely combines cutting-edge technology with traditional British maritime expertise, representing the very best of UK innovation. With up to 24 F-35B Lightning II fighter jets embarked, in squadrons from both the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force, HMS Prince of Wales showcases the largest concentration of fifth-generation aircraft ever deployed by the Royal Navy. These advanced systems demonstrate UK defence innovation whilst laying the groundwork for future UK-Japan joint development projects, including the groundbreaking GCAP programme – a joint initiative between the UK, Japan and Italy to develop a next generation fighter jet. The UK’s industrial strategy drives not just security but high-value job creation, innovation, and economic growth across both nations. UK-Japan defence industry cooperation continues to strengthen both countries’ competitiveness in aerospace, cyber, and technology, with applications for solving global challenges that matter to people in both countries.
Creative cooperation between our nations delivers mutual benefits, with the CSG visit expanding industrial and technological partnerships that will drive innovation for decades to come.
Guardians of maritime security and global challenges
The UK’s CSG deployment to Japan demonstrates concrete action toward realising a free and open Indo-Pacific and our unwavering commitment to regional stability. As maritime nations, the UK and Japan will continue to fulfil their vital responsibility as guardians of the maritime rules-based order, ensuring the freedom and safety of the seas for all nations. The CSG’s presence reinforces both countries’ shared approaches to complex security challenges, including maritime security, cyber threats, and the safe development of emerging technologies. This collaborative approach addresses the security concerns that affect our people’s prosperity and future.
The UK Foreign and Defence Secretaries recently visited Australia to observe Exercise Talisman Sabre, the largest-ever military exercise Australia has hosted, involving the CSG and 3,000 UK personnel. As part of the exercise, the AUKUS nations successfully worked alongside Japan to strengthen collaboration on the defence use of robotics and autonomous technologies.
Boosting UK trade and economic growth
The deployment directly supports the government’s Plan for Change through economic growth opportunities. Port visits in Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, and the Republic of Korea will showcase British defence capabilities through trade demonstrations and fairs, supporting UK exports and international trade. The Indo-Pacific is a critical region for UK trade, with the region accounting for 17% of total UK trade – worth £286 bn in goods and services in the 12 months to September 2024. The deployment provides opportunities for UK companies to participate in trade events during port visits, delivering British jobs and growth whilst building on the strong foundation established through the bilateral UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), and the multilateral Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Building a sustainable connection for the future
Alongside partnership between our governments and militaries, UK engagement with Japan spans civil society, business, culture, academia, and people-to-people links.. This comprehensive connection between our countries means that together, we can tackle the global challenges that both Japanese and British people care about, from environmental sustainability to technological security. The UK is committed to investing in this connection, and the many links between our countries that bring it to life, now and for future generations. The visit of CSG to Japan, and HMS Prince of Wales to Tokyo, will be an unforgettable moment in our partnership.
Further details of specific programmes and venues will be announced in due course.
- Operation HIGHMAST involves nearly 4,000 British personnel across the Royal Navy (2,500), Royal Air Force (592), and British Army (900)
- Exercise Talisman Sabre involved 3,000 UK personnel
- The deployment includes 12 international partners contributing ships or personnel, including Norway, Canada, Spain, and New Zealand
- The CSG will cover over 26,000 nautical miles and visit more than 40 countries over eight months
- This follows the successful 2021 deployment of HMS Queen Elizabeth, which travelled 26,000 nautical miles and engaged with 40 nations
- The deployment supports the government’s commitment to increase defence spending to 2.6% of GDP
- This follows the establishment of GCAP headquarters in Reading and continued progress on the trilateral fighter programme between the UK, Japan, and Italy
- Trade between the UK and Indo-Pacific region accounts for 17% of total UK trade, worth £286 bn annually
- Japan is the UK’s 15th largest trading partner. Total UK exports to Japan amounted to £14.7 bn in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2024, whilst UK imports from Japan totalled £12.4 bn over the same period.
- The strong economic partnership is further evidenced by Japan’s record £17.7 bn investment commitment into the UK during the Japan G7, spanning sectors including green energy, offshore wind, real estate and quantum technology. The UK was the number two destination for Japanese investment in 2023, highlighting the mutual confidence in our economic relationship.
- Access restrictions will be implemented at the port terminal during the port visit. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
06 Aug 25. Russia: Growing economic pressures will continue driving layoffs in several key sectors. Earlier on 6 August, a Russian media outlet reported that Russia’s largest shipbuilding company, United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC), has begun layoffs at its Vympel Shipyard in Rybinsk (Yaroslavl oblast). Citing financial difficulties caused by a lack of orders, the company said that it will lay off less than 5% of staff but warned that further layoffs could ensue throughout the year. Similarly, the state-owned railway company, Russian Railways, recently required management personnel to take additional unpaid days off to preserve their employment and avoid mass layoffs amid growing financial difficulties. Meanwhile, according to official statistics, the number of liquidated companies significantly exceeded the number of newly registered ones in the first half of 2025. The most heavily impacted sectors include construction, manufacturing and trade industries, which are typically the most affected by rising costs and slowing demand. The latest developments underscore the financial strain on Russian businesses. However, we assess that widespread labour shortages will likely offset the impact of layoffs, as high defence spending continues to prop up the wider economy. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Aug 25. Moldova: Serious government instability is unlikely after jailing of pro-Russia regional leader. On 5 August, a court in the capital Chișinău sentenced the leader of Moldova’s Gagauzia region, Evghenia Guțul, to seven years’ imprisonment for her involvement in illegally financing the banned pro-Russia Șor party. According to prosecutors, Guțul systematically channelled funds from Russia to Moldova to finance the party between 2019 and 2022. A new regional election to appoint a new leader will be likely in the near-to-medium term, though significant government instability in Gagauzia is unlikely. The sentencing comes ahead of Moldovan parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 September, which Russia and pro-Russia forces in Moldova will highly likely seek to influence and destabilise. Russian and Moscow-friendly Moldovan politicians will likely leverage the verdict to stir tensions between the central Moldovan authorities and those in Gagauzia. We assess that limited, non-violent protests in Chișinău and Comrat (Gagauzia’s regional capital) will be likely over the coming days and weeks. While a small number of Gagauz politicians and members of society will possibly call for Gagauzia to break away from Moldova, secession remains highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Aug 25. Niger: New militia will raise ethnic tensions, human rights risk, hostility to western investment. On 4 August, the pro-junta M62 civil society coalition launched a government-backed civilian militia initiative, the Garkouwar Kassa or ‘Shields of the Homeland’. This followed recommendations by the government’s Consultative Council for Refoundation to train and equip volunteers to support the authorities in defending the national territory. The minister of the interior has confirmed that the government will provide this support; the force will initially organise night patrols and combat disinformation from ‘internal and external enemies’. We assess that the formation of the force will significantly elevate the risk of vigilantism and ethnically targeted violence, particularly against the Fulani community in southern Niger. A similar organisation, the Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland (VDP) in Burkina Faso, has been accused of conducting summary executions of Fulani civilians. Additionally, the M62’s broader opposition to perceived foreign exploitation will raise the risk of hostility from such groups towards foreign organisations, particularly NGOs. This will increase staff exposure to harassment and detention, particularly during nighttime transit. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Aug 25. Colombia: Drone attacks targeting military personnel will elevate physical security risks. On 2 August, the Gulf Clan (AGC) organised crime group (OCG) allegedly attacked military personnel using drones armed with explosives in Santa Rosa del Sur (Bolívar department). The attack killed one soldier and injured six. The authorities attributed the attack to the AGC’s Erlin Pino Duarte faction. On 31 July, clashes between the security forces and AGC personnel also killed one soldier in Montecristo (Bolívar department). The attacks follow an ongoing military counteroffensive operation against armed groups in southern Bolívar. Meanwhile, reports indicate that approximately 5,000 civilians are under curfew in the area due to an indefinite ‘paro armado’ (armed strike) conducted by the National Liberation Army (ELN). Attack risks will remain elevated for security forces personnel in Bolívar. Additionally, we assess that the use of explosives will increase physical security risks for bystanders. If explosive drone attacks persist, there is a realistic possibility that the armed forces will conduct strategic airstrikes against armed groups, heightening collateral damage risks. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Aug 25. Armenia: Joint drills with US will sustain regional tensions with Russia; significant unrest is unlikely. On 2 August, Armenia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced that the country will host the Eagle Partner 2025 exercises (military drills conducted jointly with the US) between 12 and 20 August. The exercises will focus on peacekeeping tasks and medical evacuation procedures. This marks the third edition of the joint drills, which started in 2023. They are part of Yerevan’s ongoing strategic rapprochement with Washington DC, as Armenia pivots away from its historical partner, Russia. Last year, Moscow criticised the drills, claiming that they serve as further evidence of the West’s attempts to destabilise the region. Therefore, it is highly likely that these exercises will sustain regional tensions between Armenia and its former ally, Russia. Furthermore, we assess that the drills will likely incite criticism from conservative segments of society, including the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC), which is a staunch critic of the government’s shift towards the West. Small-scale protests against the event remain a realistic possibility, though they are unlikely to result in significant disruption. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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