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25 Jul 25. Thailand, Cambodia exchange heavy artillery fire as fighting rages for second day.
- Summary
- Thailand says Cambodia using rocket systems
- U.S., ASEAN chair call for ceasefire
- Death toll in Thailand rises to 15
- Cambodian provincial official says 1 civilian killed
Thailand and Cambodia exchanged heavy artillery fire on Friday as their worst fighting in more than a decade stretched for a second day, despite calls from the region and beyond for an immediate ceasefire in an escalating border conflict that has killed at least 16 people. Thailand’s military reported clashes from before dawn in the Ubon Ratchathani and Surin provinces and said Cambodia had used artillery and Russian-made BM-21 rocket systems. Authorities said 100,000 people had been evacuated from conflict areas on the Thai side. (Source: Reuters)
24 Jul 25. Cambodia-Thailand: Security risks at border are currently elevated following major clashes. Earlier on 24 July, a shooting incident between Cambodian and Thai troops occurred near the disputed Ta Moan Thom temple along the shared border. Both sides have accused the other of shooting first. The incident comes after a landmine injured a Thai soldier along the border on 23 July, leading Thailand to recall its ambassador from Cambodia and to expel Cambodia’s emissary. Following the cross-border clash on 24 July, Thai F-16 fighter jets bombed military targets in Oddar Meanchey province (Cambodia), while Cambodia fired rockets and artillery shells into Thailand. Several civilian casualties have been reported in both countries. This marks a serious escalation in bilateral tensions, which have been heightened since a Cambodian soldier died during a cross-border clash in May (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 4 July 2025). Security risks along the border will remain elevated in the immediate term, particularly in Preah Vihear province (Cambodia) and Si Sa Ket province (Thailand). We assess that further skirmishes are highly likely along the border in the coming days; there is also a realistic possibility of further airstrikes targeting entities in the vicinity of the border. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Jul 25. Ecuador: Deployment of 2,000 soldiers to Manabí province will mitigate attacks, armed clashes risks. On 19 July, the Ministry of National Defence deployed 2,000 soldiers to Manabí province following a sharp increase in violent crime; the authorities registered 15 homicides in 12 hours. The authorities have attributed the uptick in violence to a conflict between the Choneros and Lobos organised crime groups (OCGs). The violence reportedly began after the Choneros assassinated a local leader of the Lobos in Manta (Manabí), triggering a cycle of revenge killings between the OCGs. The initial attack by the Choneros was possibly a display of strength amid the extradition of the OCG’s leader, Adolfo Macías (alias ‘Fito’), to the US. According to the Joint Command of the Armed Forces, the new deployment will bolster the security forces’ presence in conflict zones, key highways and ports, as well as residential and commercial areas. We assess that the deployment will mitigate the risk of attacks and armed clashes in the near term. However, heightened security force presence on highways will likely increase stop-and-searches and supply chain disruption. Heightened domestic military deployments underscore increasing risks pertaining to the militarisation of the security forces. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Jul 25. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Peace treaty will highly likely sustain societal polarisation in Armenia. New polling data released on 21 July by the International Republican Institute (IRI) revealed that 47% of Armenians support the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, with 40% against it. Armenians who oppose its signing cited concerns regarding the ceding of territory to Azerbaijan, a lack of trust, perceptions that Baku dictated the terms of the agreement and the risk of renewed conflict. Armenia and Azerbaijan finalised the terms of the peace treaty in March, though they have yet to sign it, as Baku has made additional demands for this to happen (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 26 March 2025). The polling reflects that the issue of signing the peace treaty will highly likely continue to drive polarisation within Armenian society over the medium-to-long term. We assess that these divisions (irrespective of whether the two sides eventually sign a peace treaty) will also likely elevate government stability and domestic unrest risks, specifically around the June 2026 Armenian parliamentary elections. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Jul 25. Pakistan: Drone use by militants underscores evolving security risks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. On 22 July, reports emerged that militants have started using drones to target the security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The drones are reportedly powered by four rotors, which allow for vertical take-off and landing and enable the assets to use bombs and explosive devices against the security forces. Earlier in July, two quadcopters used by militants targeted a police station in Bannu district (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), killing a woman and three children in a nearby house. At least eight such drone attacks have targeted the police in the past two and a half months in Bannu. While Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has not claimed responsibility for these drone attacks, it has reportedly stated that it is trying to acquire such technology. We assess that the use of drones will significantly increase the security risks in border regions, particularly amid the deteriorating security environment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (as well as the underfunded and over-stretched provincial police force). Consequently, this will increase safety risks for bystanders, particularly in the vicinity of police stations and security facilities. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Jul 25. China, Russia, Terrorist Networks Destabilizing Africa. Africa, strategically positioned between the Atlantic Ocean and Indo-Pacific region, is increasingly at the convergence of great-power rivalry and terrorism, said Air Force Lt. Gen. Dagvin R.M. Anderson, during a nomination hearing before the Senate Committee on Armed Services today. Anderson is being considered for promotion to general and commander of U.S. Africa Command.
“China is expanding its approach from a focus on economic influence to greater military and information operations. Russia’s actions are frequently destabilizing and run counter to U.S. interests. Terrorist networks continue to exploit ungoverned spaces, posing a direct threat to our safety and security,” he said.
The general stated that China is investing in ports globally, adding, “I think it should be concerning to us, not only that they could potentially use those as dual-use military ports, but what access can they deny U.S. forces or U.S. commerce as necessary in time of conflict.” Anderson noted that it would be especially concerning to national security if Chinese ports were opened on the Atlantic side of Africa, and it’s critical that the United States understands the national security vulnerabilities that this development may pose. China is also expanding its information operations and communist propaganda across the African continent, he said, and they are increasing their military-to-military engagement, which Anderson described as “troubling.” The United States can engage in the information domain to highlight some of these malign activities, he said, adding that small American investments in Africa will produce great returns. For example, the State Partnership Program can create long-term relationships, he said. Navy Vice Adm. Frank M. Bradley, who testified to be promoted to admiral and become commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, said that on a strategic landscape where adversaries and competitors challenge the rules-based international order, Socom provides the agility, precision and nuance needed to confront and disrupt these threats and competition.
“Should the need arise, we are also ready to integrate into the joint force to respond to crisis and engage in high-end conflict, where the precise delivery of violence will be critical to shaping success on the battlefield,” the admiral said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
22 Jul 25. India’s cumulative defense spending to reach $543.1bn during 2026-30, driven by need for modernization, forecasts GlobalData. India has embarked on a comprehensive and multi-dimensional defense modernization initiative, driven by the need to enhance its qualitative edge over Pakistan and address capability gaps exposed during the recent Operation Sindoor, in which India targeted terrorist infrastructure within Pakistan. The operational challenges faced by the Indian military were further exacerbated by China’s alleged support for Pakistan in the form of military hardware, surveillance, and logistics during India’s operation. Against this backdrop, the country’s cumulative defense spending to reach $543.1bn during 2026-30 forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. GlobalData’s latest report, “India Defense Market Size and Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Key Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2025-30,” reveals that of the projected India’s defense spending, the acquisition budget is estimated to account for approximately 31%. Additionally, in response to the need to replenish munitions expended during Operation Sindoor, the Indian government has sanctioned emergency funding of $6 bn (INR 500 bn). This funding is expected to be allocated for the urgent procurement of weapon systems, including ammunition, air defense systems, surveillance systems, missiles, and loitering munitions, among others. During the operation, the Indian Air Force reportedly suffered combat losses, compelling the country’s policymakers to reassess its military preparedness levels. The urgency to swiftly overcome these vulnerabilities, particularly in light of a potential two-front war with its hostile neighbors, has led India to significantly increase defense modernization funding. Abhijit Apsingikar, Aerospace & Defense Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The persistent threat of cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan has compelled India to take comprehensive measures to mitigate this risk. There will likely be an emphasis on acquiring relatively smaller yet more survivable surveillance platforms, and the Indian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is expected to expand its initial order for six Netra Mk-1A airborne early warning and control (AEWC) aircraft and expedite their induction for wider deployment.
“The MoD is also anticipated to acquire another variant of this aircraft, namely the Netra Mk-2, over the next few years, which will feature a larger radar for conducting surveillance over a longer range. Similarly, the Indian government is likely to approve the acquisition of a dedicated electronic warfare aircraft capable of performing signals intelligence and communications intelligence roles. The expedited development of long-range stand-off missiles and munitions, particularly air-to-air missiles, is expected to be prioritized, with projects like the Astra MK-III receiving specific attention.”
Furthermore, the Indian MoD is in the process of approving a follow-on order for an additional 97 Tejas Mk-1A multirole fighter aircraft, in addition to the 83 already ordered in 2021. The MoD is also anticipated to accelerate the Super Sukhoi modernization program, with upgraded fighters receiving new GaN AESA radars, enhanced engines, new decoys, and stand-off jammers. (Source: GlobalData)
21 Jul 25. Hegseth, Philippine President Meet to Advance Deterrence in Indo-Pacific. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hosted Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the Pentagon today, where the two leaders reaffirmed their commitments to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and discussed shared security concerns in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as recent advances in the long-standing U.S.-Philippines alliance.
“Our storied alliance has never been stronger or more essential than it is today,” Hegseth said. “Together, we remain committed to the mutual defense treaty. And this pact extends to armed attacks on our armed forces, aircraft or public vessels, including our Coast Guard, anywhere in the Pacific, including the South China Sea.”
The United States has identified the Asia-Pacific region as its priority theater, and Hegseth said the U.S. would work with the Philippines and other like-minded nations there to advance President Donald J. Trump’s peace through strength agenda.
“The United States is committed to achieving peace through strength, and willing to work with all nations who share this desire in the region,” he said. “We do not seek confrontation, but we are and will be ready and resolute.”
The Philippines has been a U.S. ally for seven decades now, and its position in the South China Sea makes it an ideal partner in the region.
“We’re proud to support our mutual economic vitality, including your efforts to … modernize your armed forces and collective defense,” Hegseth told Marcos. “We’ve made rapid progress enhancing real deterrence and upholding a free and open Asia-Pacific.”
The secretary noted the success of the most recent iteration of the Balikatan military exercise, which involved the Philippines, the U.S. and more than 20 other nations.
“We’ve made rapid progress enhancing real deterrence and upholding a free and open Asia-Pacific through deepening our interoperability and expanding joint exercises, including the largest and most sophisticated exercise — Balikatan — ever conducted,” he said.
Balikatan 2025, conducted April 21-May 9, was the 40th iteration of the annual exercise and involved more than 14,000 participants. The exercise assessed readiness across multiple domains, including air, land, sea, cyber, information and space.
But Hegseth noted that the U.S. and the Philippines are doing even more together.
“We’re also deploying new cutting-edge missiles and … unmanned systems, and revitalizing our defense industrial bases,” he said. “Together, we must forge a strong shield of real deterrence for peace, ensuring the long-term security and prosperity for our nations.”
The recent Balikatan exercise, Marcos said, has proven valuable, as evidenced by feedback from personnel within the Philippines military.
“When I see the officers who were involved, and I speak to the men and women who were involved, they say it was extremely useful,” Marcos said. “Essentially, we’ve achieved our purpose, because they say they have learned a lot about how to operate together — not only with American forces — but also with … forces around the Asia-Pacific and down to Australia and even to Canada and all of the other countries that have been involved.”
Marcos stated that he is pleased with how the U.S. and the Philippines are working together to modernize the Philippine military.
“I believe that our alliance … the United States and the Philippines, in terms of preserving the peace in terms of preserving the stability of the South China Sea,” he said. “But I would even go as far as to say in the entire Indo-Pacific region. And we are always very, very happy to continue to strengthen that relationship.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
18 Jul 25. Congo (DRC): Peace declaration is unlikely to mitigate critical security risks. On 19 July, the Congolese government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a Qatar-brokered declaration of principles aimed at ending the conflict in eastern Congo (DRC), setting an 18 August deadline to finalise the peace agreement. The declaration follows a prior US-brokered agreement between the Congolese and Rwandan governments. However, the declaration of principles does not address several contentious issues, including the conditions for the M23’s withdrawal from conquered territory. The M23 (with enduring clandestine Rwandan support) remains highly unlikely to withdraw from eastern DRC (and thereby forfeit control over the lucrative minerals trade) without substantial political concessions from the Congolese government (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 7 July 2025). The presence of the M23 in eastern DRC will also likely sustain the risk of armed conflict between the group and government-aligned local militia forces (known as Wazalendo). As such, we assess that the declaration is unlikely to moderate critical security and human rights risks in eastern DRC. (Source: Sibylline)
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