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17 Jul 25. Russia: Ongoing war, sanctions will elevate likelihood of tax rises, undermine socio-economic health. On 16 July, Anatoly Artamonov, head of the Federation Council Committee on Budget, called for the identification of additional state revenue sources, which have been affected by declining hydrocarbon proceeds. Artamonov specifically advocated for the abolition of certain tax benefits and a stronger clampdown on shadow employment to boost income tax revenues. His comments echo concerns previously expressed by Russia’s Minister for Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, that the country is on the verge of a recession. After the sharp downturn following the 2022 invasion, marked by a recession and high inflation, the Russian economy rebounded, registering growth in 2023 and 2024. However, rising defence expenditures are significantly widening the country’s long-term budget deficit. In parallel, US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on buyers of Russian oil has increased the likelihood of a further decline in hydrocarbon revenues. We assess that the ongoing war against Ukraine is increasing the likelihood of tax rises and other methods to raise state revenues. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Jul 25. Cameroon: Military reshuffle reflects heightened government anxiety ahead of presidential election. On 16 July, President Paul Biya issued a series of presidential decrees reshuffling several high-ranking military figures and appointing new chiefs of staff for the air force, infantry and navy. Military reshuffles are a relatively common practice (this is the third since August 2023) to ward against the development of alternate power bases and moderate internal dissent. The reshuffle also comes amid increasing factionalism within the government, after a minister and spokesperson announced that they will contest October’s presidential election against Biya. As such, the move likely reflects heightened internal anxiety ahead of the election and an attempt to ensure control of the military. In the coming months, the government will likely intensify surveillance of government figures, possibly leading to further reshuffles of state institutions to moderate the likelihood of a coup during the election period. However, we assess that concerns over Biya’s age and succession will sustain risks of government factionalism in the medium term, elevating government stability risks. Such risks will increase in the event of well-attended anti-government protests in the immediate aftermath of the election. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Jul 25. SA Defence budget cannot be justified without a coherent national security strategy – Zibi. The SA Navy’s new MMIPV SAS King Shaka Zulu off Cape Town. Any increased defence funding for the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is unjustifiable without urgent reform, generational renewal, and a credible national security strategy, according to Songezo Zibi, Chairperson of the Standing Committee on Public Accounts (SCOPA) and leader of Rise Mzansi. Speaking during the 2025/26 Defence Budget Vote debate earlier this month, he noted that “South Africa has a 2 600 kilometre long coastline straddling two oceans, the Indian and the Atlantic,” but the coastline is “poorly defended because our Navy and Air Force cannot keep their most important equipment in service.” The same holds true for South Africa’s 1.5 m square kilometre exclusive economic zone, which Zibi said is left virtually unpatrolled. “We have pilots who should be flying but are not. We have sailors who should be at sea, but instead are on land,” he remarked. “Our overall force equipment is old, obsolete, a complete mismatch compared to the national security threats we face.” Zibi did not stop at equipment deficiencies. He took aim at what he described as a fundamental flaw in the SANDF’s leadership culture. “Most of the leadership of the Armed Forces does need a generational change,” he said. “There is a pervasive view among young officers that appointments to leadership roles are determined by loyalty rather than talent.” The consequences, Zibi warned, go beyond low morale. They compromise the institution’s ability to respond to complex, modern security challenges, which now include cyber threats, asymmetric warfare and regional instability. While acknowledging that the armed forces are “chronically underfunded,” Zibi argued that pumping more money into the system without reform would be reckless. “It is difficult to back significantly additional funding when the armed forces and the Department of Military Veterans do not manage the little money they get in accordance with the basic governance and the law,” he said. He further pointed to ongoing corruption and mismanagement, referencing recent revelations by KZN Provincial Police Commissioner Lieutenant General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi that suggest the entire security system is “severely compromised, infiltrated and captured by criminal elements.” Zibi insisted that these issues must be resolved before Parliament can consider larger allocations.
“We will beg for a significant increase in the defence budget when the security cluster tables a coherent national security strategy before Parliament,” he stated. “It has long been promised, but none materialises.” (After the budget vote debate a new National Security Strategy was released, the first such strategy published since 2013.)
“Ultimately, Honourable Members, it is the Commander-in-Chief, the President, whose seriousness about national security will determine the future of the SANDF,” Zibi said. “Absent that, I’m afraid, Honourable Minister, you will continue to walk away with budgets that are too small for the mandate, and yet too big for the current levels of accountability,” he told Defence and Military Veterans Minister Angie Motshekga.
In closing, Zibi urged Motshekga to table a new, realistic armed forces mandate that reflects “the asymmetric threats we face” and to lead a generational renewal of the force. “We need a younger, smarter, better trained and more mobile Defence Force with regional deterrent capability.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
16 Jul 25. Ethiopia: Islamic State militant arrests highlight increasing international terrorism risks. On 15 July, the National Intelligence Security Services (NISS) announced the arrests of 82 individuals for providing logistical, financial and operational support to Islamic State-Somalia (ISS). The arrests occurred in the capital Addis Ababa, as well as in Amhara, Central Ethiopia, Harari, Oromia and Somali regions. The NISS stated that ISS has increased its efforts to establish ‘sleeper cells’ in Ethiopia in recent months amid broader efforts to expand its regional footprint from its primary strongholds in Puntland region (Somalia). In response to increasing border infiltration risks, the Ethiopian authorities will possibly adopt an elevated posture in Somali region in the coming months, likely disrupting overland movement and the cross-border transit of goods and personnel from Somalia. The authorities will also likely continue to escalate their efforts to identify and dismantle ISS networks across Ethiopia in the coming months. We assess that increasing scrutiny of institutions associated with Muslim communities (including mosques, schools and charities) will possibly aggravate ethno-religious tensions, particularly in Somali region, while compounding compliance risks for locally engaged faith-based entities. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 25. Mali: Tuareg separatist attack underscores threats to staff in Kidal region. On 14 July, the Malian armed forces (FAMa) confirmed that clashes broke out with separatist Tuareg militants associated with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) in the area between Anéfis and Kidal (both Kidal region). The announcement comes several days after FAMa mobilised a large-scale military convoy (that included Africa Corps personnel) from southern Mali to reinforce positions in Kidal. FLA militants likely ambushed the convoy as it moved along the RN18 highway, underscoring the significant risk of attacks during overland movement through rural areas. FAMa has since responded to the attack with airstrikes and helicopter air support; clashes are continuing around the convoy at the time of writing. In the coming days, FAMa and Africa Corps units will likely intensify their efforts to repel these attacks and reinforce positions in Kidal. However, this is unlikely to improve security conditions therein significantly. Given its limited capacity to safeguard security in rural areas, FAMa will likely continue relying on indiscriminate airstrikes and broad repressive measures targeting Tuareg communities to deter militant activity, compounding human rights concerns and ethno-religious tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Jul 25. Motshekga admits SANDF is “hugely underfunded”. Defence and Military Veterans Minister Angie Motshekga has said her department is hugely underfunded and requires another R30bn to meet its mandate. Consequently, she is pushing to have defence spending doubled to 1.5% of GDP. Speaking to Newzroom Afrika on Thursday following Wednesday’s defence budget vote debate, Motshekga said, “we have raised it several times, even before the budget process, to say the underfunding of the Defence Force has become very critical. It’s a major existential problem for the Department. Treasury is aware, Cabinet is aware, but also Parliament has been assisting us to engage with the different policy units or committees that deal with the budget…to say the appropriate for defence is just inadequate.” Elaborating, Motshekga said that underfunding is to the tune of R30 bn, and she would like to have phased allocations of R10bn to bring relief to the SA National Defence Force (SANDF). The current defence budget is below 1% of GDP, and this needs to be increased to 1.5%, “which then will stabilise the system with plans to improve up to 2% of the GDP. So what we need now as we negotiate for the baseline to be lifted is to be given money to plug in the holes that are gaping and which are threatening the well-being of the of the Department,” Motshekga told Newzroom Afrika. The lack of funding for the SANDF “has an impact on its ability to defend the country,” with a lack of confidence by South Africans in the military as a result, Motshekga stated, but she does not believe the military is sunk. “We are floating but we need to move forward to be able to cope with the changing geopolitical environment of defence.”
“We can still continue to survive but we can’t afford to go lower…we should not risk having any provisions which are lower,” the Minister said.
“There are challenges and we’re not denying them,” Motshekga stated, mentioning that R1.4 bn is needed to upgrade 1 Military Hospital, for example, but funding is not available.
“And that’s why we keep on really engaging with Treasury to say we cannot afford any decline beyond where we are. It could be dangerous. As much as we are able to sustain that which we’re supposed to do, we can’t go lower than this and hence the pressure and I think the support we’re getting from Parliament that the baseline of defence has to be improved beyond the 0.8% [of GDP] that we find ourselves in.”
Addressing the fact that more than 60% of the defence budget goes to salaries (compensation of employees – CoE), Motshekga admitted that capabilities have had to be “held back” as the funding balance is not right. “But because we’re defunded, you will not be able to cut from CoE because those people are already there.” Ideally, the SANDF would like to spend 40% of the budget on prime mission equipment. “We don’t have even enough equipment in terms of enough planes, enough ships for the sea. We just have enough to survive but we need more resources.”
Peace contributions to continue
In light of the deaths of 14 SANDF soldiers in the Democratic Republic of Congo in January and the subsequent termination of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), Motshekga was asked about the long-term financial implications on future deployments. She said that at the recent United Nations peacekeeping ministerial event, “knowing our financial situation…we decided to make pledges which will require less resources on our part.”
“We continue to commit ourselves to peace in the region, in the continent, in the world,” Motshekga added, with pledges that are “not financially heavy for us, but we are going to continue to participate in peacekeeping processes in terms of our needs, our means and our ability.”
When asked if the SANDF appears weaker following the withdrawal of SAMIDRC, Motshekga told Newzroom Afrika that “it’s perceived by South Africans,” but the SANDF is very valued by the United Nations because of its peacekeeping experience. The SADC and other entities still regard South Africa highly, the Minister said.
“The United Nations always feels that if as South Africa we don’t participate, the mission will not really be strong and good enough. So we’re well regarded and the incidents in the DRC were unfortunate, where we lost our soldiers, but we continue to be a well-regarded and well respected Defence Force.”
Internal security the biggest threat
Motshekga believes that South Africa does not face any threats from external countries attacking, with internal problems being of greater concern. “Our biggest threat from the military intelligence in our country is internal unrest like we had in [July 2021],” caused by poverty and “general discontent amongst people. It’s really a very dangerous e environment which anything can ignite it. So that is always flagged as our major threat as compared to external countries attacking us.” As a result, there is a constant exchange of information between the police, the State Security Agency and Military Intelligence to monitor major potential threats against the country. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
11 Jul 25. EU funding boost for West African peace and stability. Three African countries will benefit from European Union (EU) Peace Facility support as per announcements this week to improve security and stability in West Africa. Top of the list, alphabetically, is Cabo Verde followed by the Central African Republic (CAR) and Senegal. Cabo Verde, an island country and archipelagic state of West Africa in the central Atlantic Ocean consisting of ten volcanic islands, will receive €12 m over a four-year period as an assistance measure from the European Peace Facility (EPF).
In addition to strengthening its armed forces, the EU largesse will boost cooperation with EU member state navies in the framework of the bloc’s co-ordinated maritime presence initiative. Further, the EPF will provide the Cabo Verde Armed Forces with equipment and services for patrolling and surveillance including delivery of an ocean going patrol vessel and training. The mandate of the EU Military Training Mission (MTM) in the CAR is extended to September 2026 with €11.4 m allocated for the timeframe. The mission, established in April 2016, supports Central African authorities through strategic advice and education of non-commissioned officers (NCOs) and officers of the central African forces (FACA). Since start-up the mission, through a reinforced operational training structure, has trained and educated 9 500 FACA personnel and worked to build a modernised, effective, credible, ethnically balanced and democratically accountable FACA. West African country Senegal is another EPF beneficiary by way of a €10 m boost over three years to improve the capacity and capability of the country’s armed forces to defend against internal and external threats. The EPF funding will go to non-lethal equipment and operational infrastructure for 24/7 land and river surveillance, intelligence gathering and force protection.
“This EPF measure will contribute to support the EU and Senegal’s common objective of providing an integrated response to the spill over of insecurity and instability from the Sahel to other West African countries,” the EU said.
In the Sahel, the EU Council has extended the mandate of the regional advisory and co-ordination cell (RACC) in the civilian EUCAP Sahel Mali mission. It supports regional and cross-border cooperation in the Sahel and strengthens national capabilities in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. The extension, according to the Council, will not incur any cost. The European Peace Facility was established in March 2021 for the financing of actions to prevent conflicts, preserve peace and strengthen international security and stability. When created, the EPF had an initial financial ceiling of €5.69bn. The EU increased the financial ceiling in March 2023 (by €2.29bn), in June 2023 (by €4.06bn) and in March 2024 (by €5bn). The top-up of March 2024 is a dedicated Ukraine Assistance Fund within the European Peace Facility. Between 2022 and 2024, the EU mobilised €6.1bn under the European Peace Facility to address Ukraine’s military and defence needs; the majority of EPF funding goes to Ukraine. In December 2023, the European Union backed a new security and defence initiative to tackle the spill over of insecurity from the Sahel to west African countries. The initiative, with an initial two-year duration, is seen as part of a wider response pulling together prevention, socio-economic development and humanitarian assistance. The initiative is part of the EU’s integrated approach to the region and has seen tens of ms of euros in support provided to Benin, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, and Togo to tackle instability and insecurity. This is being done by reinforcing capabilities of the security and defence forces of the four West African countries to contain and contain and respond to armed terrorist groups. The EU has “engaged a figure of €620 m for military support for the whole region,” EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell said in 2023 amid fears that the decade-long insurgency crisis in the Sahel will expand, especially in light of recent coups and instability. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
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