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10 Jul 25. Somalia: Al-Shabaab attack in Mogadishu underscores advancing offensive, attack risks. On 9 July, an al-Shabaab militant detonated an explosive device at the Jale Siyad military base in the capital Mogadishu; the authorities have not confirmed casualty figures at the time of writing. Al-Shabaab claims to have targeted a Somali National Army (SNA) training event involving ‘Western experts’. The attack comes amid a stalling SNA counter-offensive and an escalating al-Shabaab offensive in central and southern Somalia. Since launching the renewed offensive in mid-January, al-Shabaab militants have made significant territorial gains in Middle Shabelle region and now control several key supply lines, including the Balcad-Mogadishu road (Middle Shabelle). In the coming months, al-Shabaab will highly likely continue consolidating and expanding its presence in the Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions, further undermining the SNA’s capacity and increasing pressure on co-operation with regional, clan-based and African Union forces. Al-Shabaab will unlikely launch a large-scale offensive on Mogadishu in the coming weeks. However, we assess that efforts to encircle the city will likely facilitate increasingly frequent IED, shooting and vehicle-borne IED (VBIED) attacks within the city. These will particularly target government and military installations. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Jul 25. Mexico: Increasing military control of aviation sector will likely diminish accountability, transparency. On 8 July, the authorities announced plans to increase military and state control over the aviation sector. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration also proposed increasing investments and subsidies for regional airports, which currently receive less funding. The government is considering increasing public-private partnerships in the aviation sector, following successful agreements in tourist areas such as Puerto Escondido (Oaxaca state). The Sheinbaum administration’s plans build upon the statist aviation sector policy of the former president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. López Obrador granted the military control over several public airports and increased incentives (such as lower usage tariffs) for airlines to use military-administered airports. Additionally, he revived state-owned airline Mexicana de Aviación, placing it under the management of the Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA). The new measures will likely increase opportunities for the aviation sector, given heightened partnerships and investment in regional airports. However, increasing military and state control over the aviation sector will likely diminish accountability, oversight and transparency frameworks, increasing corruption and compliance risks. (Source: Sibylline)
08 Jul 25. Ecuador: Proposed referendum on foreign military bases will reduce long-term regional tensions. On 7 July, President Daniel Noboa announced plans to hold a referendum on lifting the prohibition of foreign military bases in Ecuador. Noboa said he intends to hold the referendum towards the end of 2025. Later in the day, the Constitutional Court stated that it had not yet received a formal request from Noboa to hold the referendum, which is a legal requirement. In his announcement, Noboa specifically referred to potentially returning the Manta military base (Manabí province) to the US and establishing joint military facilities with European partners. Noboa cited growing insecurity as the driver behind the proposal; Ecuador has the highest homicide rate in Latin America (excluding the Caribbean). We assess that proliferating gang violence, coupled with Noboa’s mandate to address insecurity, will likely prompt the Constitutional Court to approve the referendum proposal. Similarly, Noboa’s recent election victory on a platform to tackle Ecuador’s security situation means that any such referendum will likely be approved by the electorate, reducing medium-term policy risks. Strategic co-operation with the US and European partners will also reduce long-term regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Jul 25. Georgia: Offer of presidential pardon is likely aimed at weakening opposition unity ahead of elections. On 4 July, President Mikheil Kavelashvili announced his readiness to pardon imprisoned opposition leaders, provided they request a pardon and agree to participate in the October municipal elections. Kavelashvili is a member of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party. The opposition figures were detained in mid-June for refusing to testify before a parliamentary commission launched by GD. Kavelashvili’s offer is likely aimed at fomenting disunity and undermining the opposition’s resistance campaign. The campaign seeks to delegitimise GD’s rule by refusing to take up parliamentary seats following the contested October 2024 elections and boycotting the upcoming municipal elections. Notably, on 5 July, the Strong Georgia coalition, led by the opposition Lelo for Georgia party, announced it would participate in the municipal elections, drawing heavy criticism from other parties. Ultimately, we assess that the upcoming municipal vote is highly unlikely to be fair and transparent; GD will likely secure a victory, further reinforcing its grip over the country. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Jul 25. China-Taiwan: China’s flight route extension in Taiwan Strait will drive regional tensions. On 6 July, China’s Civil Aviation Administration (CAA) announced that it had opened a third extension of the M503 flight route in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing stated that this was to ‘ensure flight safety [and] reduce flight delays’. Taiwan claimed that China had violated a 2015 bilateral agreement, which stipulated that changes to flight paths would be agreed through consensus. In 2024, the CAA launched two new west-to-east flight routes and moved M503 closer to the unofficial median line, prompting a rebuke from Taipei. We assess that flight route extensions are partly aimed at undermining Taiwanese control over the Kinmen and Matsu islands that lie close to the Chinese coast. China’s move comes ahead of Taiwan’s annual large-scale Han Kuang military and civil defence drills from 9 to 18 July. There will highly likely be an elevated Chinese naval and coast guard presence around Taiwan’s outlying islands over the coming two weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Jul 25. Malaysia: Dismantling of terrorist network highlights authorities’ counter-terrorism capabilities. Earlier on 4 July, the Malaysian police claimed that they had dismantled a terrorist network involving Bangladeshi workers linked to the Islamic State (IS) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). The network, estimated to include between 100 and 150 individuals, used social media to spread extremist ideology and recruit migrant workers. The authorities have detained 36 Bangladeshi nationals in connection with the case since April. All had entered Malaysia for work in the construction, factory or service sectors. Although major attacks have been rare since the 2016 IS grenade attack near the capital Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia remains a source, transit point and target for terrorist groups exploiting labour migration routes in Southeast Asia. We assess that Malaysia will highly likely maintain a proactive counter-terrorism posture, which will mitigate transnational militant threats. Consequently, the risk of mass-casualty attacks will remain low. Given terrorist groups’ use of migration routes for jihadist recruitment, we assess that the government will likely intensify monitoring of migrant worker communities. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Jul 25. Afghanistan-Russia: Recognition of Taliban regime will herald economic, security co-operation. On 3 July, Russia formally recognised the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The move makes Russia the first country in the world to recognise the Taliban government since it came to power in 2021. In recent months, Russia has expanded unofficial diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan and, in April, Russia’s Supreme Court removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. We assess that Russia will seek to boost co-operation in counter-terrorism and narcotics with the Taliban, particularly as they both oppose Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K). They will likely expand co-operation and trade in agriculture, energy and mineral resources, which would boost Afghanistan’s economy. Russia’s move will also highly likely encourage other countries to recognise the Taliban. Potential candidates include India, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Qatar, the UAE and Uzbekistan. However, the Taliban’s severe restrictions on the rights of women and girls will limit its international recognition and regional integration. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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