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23 May 25. India: Postponed drills highlight continued alertness near border with Pakistan amid tensions. On 28 May, various state governments announced they would postpone civil defence mock drills near the border with Pakistan. The drills were initially scheduled for 29 May. The delay was reportedly due to administrative reasons. Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan states, along with Chandigarh and Jammu and Kashmir union territories, were scheduled to take part in the drills. Punjab’s state government has proposed carrying out the drills on 3 June; the central government has accepted this date. The drills will test emergency preparedness, evacuation procedures and air raid sirens; temporary blackouts will possibly also be included. The planned drills highlight that tensions remain between India and Pakistan, despite the ceasefire following reciprocal military strikes earlier this month. We assess that areas near the international border are likely to remain on high alert in the short term, sustaining the latent risk of disruption. (Source: Sibylline)
29 May 25. China-Taiwan: Aircraft carrier deployment signals upcoming drills are possible. On 28 May, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) confirmed that the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning was operating in the waters to the south-east of Taiwan. This comes a day after Japan’s defence ministry detected the Liaoning between Okinawa and Miyako Island. Taiwan’s MND has noted the possibility of the Liaoning conducting drills during the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival (30 May – 1 June). The Liaoning’s movements around Taiwan are part of China’s campaign of increasing pressure on the self-governed island’s defences. The Taiwanese military is likely to raise its readiness levels and enhance defensive operations in the coming days in anticipation of potential drills by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and navy (PLAN); these would be the second such drills of the year if they are carried out. We assess that China is highly unlikely to launch a direct attack on Taiwan in the short-to-medium term. However, China will likely sustain assertive military manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait, heightening the risks of miscalculation and disruption facing commercial shipping. (Source: Sibylline)
28 May 25. US weighing future of military command in Africa, top general says. The United States is assessing the future of its military command for Africa, its top general for the continent said on Tuesday, and called on African governments to make their views on its possible elimination known in Washington. President Donald Trump’s administration is considering merging AFRICOM, which became a distinct geographical command in 2008, with the U.S. command in Europe to cut bureaucracy, American media outlets reported in March. Speaking to reporters before a conference of African defence chiefs in Kenya, AFRICOM’s commander, General Michael Langley, said he had discussed the issue with officials on the continent. “I’ve talked to a number of ministers of defence and a few presidents and told them we were assessing,” Langley said. He said governments should make their views about AFRICOM’s future known through their ambassadors in the USA. (Source: Reuters)
28 May 25. China flexes military muscle with East Asian naval activity, sources say.
Summary
- Security officials track rise in China’s naval activity
- Chinese ships spotted along first island chain, sources say
- Chinese aircraft carrier sails near Japan, Taiwan
China has flexed its muscles this month by sending an unusually large number of naval and coast guard vessels through a swathe of East Asian waters, according to security documents and officials, in moves that have unnerved regional capitals. (Source: Reuters)
28 May 25. Asia boosts weapons buys, military research as security outlook darkens.
- Summary
- Companies
- SE Asian nations spend $2.7bn more on weapons, research
- Study comes ahead of weekend Shangri-La defence meet
- Gulf states make inroads amid European-Asian deals
Spending on weapons and research is spiking among some Asian countries as they respond to a darkening security outlook by broadening their outside industrial partnerships while trying to boost their own defence industries, a new study has found.
The annual Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment released on Wednesday by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said outside industrial help remains vital even as regional nations ultimately aim for self-reliance. (Source: Reuters)
27 May 25. Nigeria: Possible suicide bombing indicates rising radicalisation risks, threat of attacks around Abuja. On 26 May, a suspected suicide bomber injured at least one person when a device detonated at a bus stop opposite the Mogadishu barracks in the capital Abuja. The exact cause of the attack and the affiliation of the suspected individual have not been identified. The barracks in question hosts air force and navy personnel, and so it is possible that the attack was conducted by one of the various jihadist or Islamist-aligned armed groups (known locally as bandits) active across Nigeria’s central and northern regions. These groups are frequently targeted in airstrikes. Suicide bombing attacks in Abuja are rare; armed groups active in neighbouring states have (largely) not adopted the practice. As such, the incident possibly reflects growing radicalisation among armed groups that have previously conducted operations on behalf of Islamic State (IS; see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 19 August 2022). This underscores the elevated risk of further attempted attacks on military infrastructure in and around Abuja over the coming months. We assess that an augmented security posture is likely in Abuja in the coming weeks, increasing disruption to citywide movement. (Source: Sibylline)
28 May 25. The 2025 edition of the IISS Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment (APRSA) offers an in-depth analysis of the strategic currents shaping the region’s security. Published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the dossier examines the deeper drivers, emerging trends and future trajectories of the key security challenges and policies shaping the Asia-Pacific.
The report – now in its twelfth edition and drafted by 21 IISS experts based around the world – finds that various non-geopolitical ‘filtering factors’ provide context to trends now being seen over the past decade:
- Defence-industrial partnerships are growing, although the idea of self-sufficiency in defence is increasingly becoming an illusion;
- Japan’s strategic outlook is increasingly focused on the emerging partnership between China, Russia and North Korea, but it is seeking to build a ‘multilayered network’ beyond its alliance with the United States;
- Militaries that have focused on challenges to internal security, such those in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand, are increasingly looking towards wider geopolitical tasks, with implications to how they adopt new technologies such as Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAVs);
- UAV development and warfare is a central feature on both sides of the conflict in Myanmar;
- Concerns about maritime security to protect the free flow of goods, services and information are no longer purely about submarine capability;
- Militaries across the Asia-Pacific seeking to develop their cyber units and forces should consider broader challenges to their strategic, operational and institutional ‘maturity’ and their implications for regional stability
It also answers six major international security questions posed by the new Trump administration in the United States. Selected quotations are included below:
If foreign policy will be prioritised – ‘On foreign policy, however, Trump’s views have remained remarkably constant.’
If tariffs will reshape the regional economic security order – ‘Given that Trump is almost certain to abandon the IPEF, and with the World Trade Organization increasingly moribund, the CPTPP, but particularly Japan, will shoulder a significant share of the burden of building economic governance and protecting the rules-based economic order in the region. China is also likely to step up its efforts to shape the region in its economic interests.’
If peace can be secured in Ukraine – ‘…to achieve a ceasefire, [Trump] would need to negotiate from a position of strength (which he might think he could create by himself) and insist on a cessation of hostilities before beginning discussions with President Vladimir Putin; which he failed to do. He would also need to allow the Russian leader to save face by persuading Ukraine to accept a de facto, but not officially recognised, Russian occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory after the fighting had stopped.’
If peace can be secured in the Middle East – ‘…in the short-to-medium term, a lasting end to the regional conflict between Israel and the Iranian-backed groups may hinge on Trump’s ability to both constrain Israel and deter Iran.’
If Trump can work with Modi to revitalise the Quad – ‘…if the Quad were to put increased emphasis on the security and defence elements of the arrangement, the grouping could facilitate India’s acquisition of advanced military-related technology and maritime-security support from the US and help it counter Chinese presence, influence and impact in the Indian Ocean.’
Can a war with China over Taiwan be avoided? – ‘Given the traditional risk aversion on both sides, a large-scale war with China over Taiwan is unlikely in the near term, although it is not impossible.’
Dr Evan Laksmana, Editor of the IISS Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment, said, ‘APRSA 2025 focuses on how non-geopolitical filtering factors, from economic globalisation to domestic politics, continue to shape major security trends and policies across the Asia-Pacific and beyond. This overarching theme allows a deeper look at and a better understanding of the underlying strategic currents across the Asia-Pacific, as they flow through a series of deeply rooted structural barriers, from defence-capability development, emerging contested domains and technology to alliance and partnership management amid strategic competition. The path to understanding Asia-Pacific security dynamics does not begin and end with security realities and developments alone.’
23 May 25. China-Philippines: Close encounter in South China Sea will drive tensions; armed conflict is unlikely. On 22 May, the China Coast Guard (CCG) alleged that, on 21 May, two Philippine vessels illegally entered the waters near Subi Reef and Sandy Cay Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The CCG used water cannons as a ‘control measure’. Manila alleged ‘aggressive interference’ by Beijing against its maritime research vessels. A Chinese military base is stationed on Subi Reef, which lies near the Philippine-controlled Thitu Island. Tensions escalated in April when both sides issued statements claiming control over Sandy Cay. Both countries will highly likely continue to deploy naval assets, coast guard vessels and research infrastructure near the disputed reefs over the coming months. This will drive the risk of close encounters and flare-ups in bilateral tensions. While negotiations between China and the ten-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional bloc over a code of conduct in the South China Sea continue, a major breakthrough is unlikely in the short term. However, we assess that neither China nor the Philippines is intent on triggering a wider conflict. (Source: Sibylline)
23 May 25. India-Pakistan: Limited prospects for bilateral talks will reduce likelihood of de-escalation in tensions. On 22 May, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated ‘there will be no trade or talks with Pakistan’ and warned that ‘for every terrorist attack, Pakistan will have to pay a high cost’. These remarks, which rule out any talks with Islamabad, follow Modi’s recent comments reiterating New Delhi’s intention to control water flow and maintain the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), as well as his assertion that Pakistan will not get water from rivers over which India has rights. The statement comes amid ongoing tensions driving tit-for-tat diplomatic measures and expulsions of diplomats from each country (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 13 May 2025). Tensions between the two countries significantly increased after a militant attack in Pahalgam (Jammu and Kashmir union territory, India) on 22 April and major military strikes by both countries in early May. We assess that such comments, which signal the limited prospects for bilateral talks (particularly in the short term), will sustain tensions and the risk of renewed hostilities (especially over water-sharing issues) in the medium-to-long term. (Source: Sibylline)
26 May 25. France, Vietnam sign Airbus, defence deals as Macron visits Hanoi.
- Summary
- Companies
- Macron meets Vietnam’s leaders in first visit to Hanoi
- Airline VietJet agrees to buy 20 more Airbus planes
- Deals cover defence, satellites, nuclear energy, vaccines
- Visit comes amid growing trade tension with Washington
France and Vietnam signed a deal on Monday for 20 Airbus planes, as well as defence and space pacts, as President Emmanuel Macron visited Hanoi seeking to boost France’s influence in its former colony, grappling with threats of crippling U.S. tariffs. Macron’s first formal visit to Vietnam, the first by a French president in nearly a decade, follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats on Friday to impose 50% duties on European Union goods from June 1, fuelling tensions with the 27-country bloc, though he later delayed that deadline to July 9. Export-dependent Vietnam, under pressure from Washington to buy more American goods, has made pledges in trade talks to try to avert 46% tariffs that could impair its growth, fanning European concerns about deals at the region’s expense. Deals signed during Macron’s visit covered the plane purchase, cooperation on nuclear energy, defence, railways, Airbus earth-observation satellites and Sanofi vaccines (SASY.PA) a list of documents seen by Reuters showed, confirming an earlier report. In total 14 deals were signed, which would be short of the dozens that the French presidential palace had said were in preparation before the visit, but more agreements were expected to be announced on Tuesday, an official said. In statements to the press with no questions allowed, Macron reiterated France’s support of freedom of navigation, an issue dear to Vietnam as it often clashes with Beijing over contested boundaries in the South China Sea. Macron added the partnership with Vietnam “entails a reinforced defence cooperation”, citing the signing of multiple projects on defence and space. Vietnam’s President Luong Cuong said the defence partnership involved “sharing of information on strategic matters” and stronger cooperation in the defence industry, cybersecurity and anti-terrorism. France ruled the Southeast Asian country for about 70 years until it was forced out in 1954 after a major defeat at Dien Bien Phu in northern Vietnam. Ties have improved in recent decades, being upgraded last year to Vietnam’s highest level. On his trip, the first leg of a Southeast Asian tour that includes Indonesia and Singapore, Macron met Vietnamese leaders and will visit a university in Hanoi on Tuesday, before flying to Jakarta, the Indonesian capital.
PLANES
The deal with European planemaker Airbus (AIR.PA) for Vietnam’s low-cost airline VietJet (VJC.HM) to buy 20 A330neo wide-body aircraft follows last year’s agreement for 20 of the jets. The companies did not announce the price or delivery schedule for the planes. The signing followed urging by European officials in recent weeks for Vietnam to be careful in concessions made to the White House, two officials based in Vietnam with knowledge of the discussions had told Reuters, referring to concerns on Airbus. Airbus is the main supplier of jets to Vietnam, contributing 86% of its fleet, data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows. Airbus Defence and Space signed a separate declaration of intent with Vietnam on satellites. Airbus has long been in talks with Hanoi for the replacement of Vietnam’s earth-observation satellite, built by Airbus’ predecessor EADS and launched in 2013. The new pact involves “exploring a future programme”, Airbus said in a statement. With an economy heavily dependent on U.S. exports, Vietnam has signalled the possible purchase of at least 250 Boeing (BA.N) tab planes by flag carrier Vietnam Airlines (HVN.HM) and rival VietJet. Officials of both nations have said such deals would help cut Vietnam’s huge trade surplus with the United States and possibly appease Trump. However, in talks with the United States, “Vietnam should make sure not to make decisions at the expense of European interests,” a European official said. (Source: Reuters)
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