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08 May 25. Russian president Vladimir Putin is hosting his annual Victory Day parade in Moscow today, an event the Kremlin hopes will rally patriotism at home and project strength abroad. Officials promise that commemorations this year – the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany – will be the “biggest” ever. More than 20 foreign dignitaries, including China’s Xi Jinping and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, are expected to attend. Putin unilaterally ordered a three-day truce for the duration of the holiday, starting Thursday, but Ukraine has accused Moscow of violating it hundreds of times. Dismissing the truce as a sham, Ukraine has called the events in Russia a “parade of cynicism” and warned that it cannot guarantee the safety of visiting world leaders. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
09 May 25. Pakistan launched multiple attacks along India’s western border, India says.
• Summary
• Indian army reports repulsing Pakistan’s drone attacks along western border
• Pakistan denies earlier accusations of attacks in Pathankot, Srinagar, Jaisalmer cities
• Artillery shelling in Indian Kashmir, sirens go off in Amritsar on Friday morning
• World powers urge India and Pakistan to de-escalate tensions
Pakistan’s armed forces launched “multiple attacks” using drones and other munitions along India’s entire western border on Thursday night and early Friday, the Indian army said, as conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours intensified. The old enemies have been clashing since India struck multiple locations in Pakistan on Wednesday that it said were “terrorist camps”, in retaliation for a deadly attack on Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir last month. (Source: Reuters)
08 May 25. How China helped Pakistan shoot down Indian fighter jets. The apparent involvement of Chinese aircraft in shooting down a Western-made Rafale has ricocheted through defence circles. At 4am on Wednesday, China’s ambassador to Pakistan hurried to the foreign ministry to celebrate an unprecedented military success. Pakistan had reportedly shot down several Indian aircraft in the hours before using Chinese J-10C fighter jets.
“Our jet fighters… shot down three Indian Rafales, three Rafales [that] are French,” Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s foreign minister, told parliament on Wednesday. “Ours were J-10C.”
The Chinese delegation, roused from their sleep by the outbreak of conflict between two nuclear-armed nations, was thrilled with the success of the Pakistani defence, Mr Dar said.
“Being a friendly nation, they expressed great happiness.”
India has not officially responded to reports that it lost as many as five fighter jets. But the apparent involvement of Chinese aircraft in shooting down a Rafale has ricocheted through defence circles – and sent stock in its maker, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, surging by as much as 20 per cent. Until now, Chinese weaponry had not been field-tested against Western-made systems like the Rafale. The Indian Air Force (IAF) operates a fleet of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the most advanced model of the aircraft. A French intelligence source confirmed to CNN on Wednesday that at least one had been shot down, marking the first time a Rafale has been lost during combat. In an official statement, China’s foreign ministry said it was “not familiar with the matter” when asked whether Chinese jets were involved in the skirmish. Later on Thursday evening, a US official told Reuters that there was “high confidence” a J-10C had shot down two Indian fighters, using air-to-air missiles. That appeared to confirm the aircraft first known “kill”, having entered service in its earliest form in 2003. It has been described as a “4.5 generation fighter”, like the British Eurofighter Typhoons and almost at the level of fifth generation systems like the US-made F-35. Hu Jixin, the former editor of the Chinese state-owned Global Times, said the battle showed that “China’s level of military manufacturing has completely surpassed that of Russia and France”, adding that Taiwan should feel “even more scared”. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
08 May 25. Pakistan Downs Indian Rafale Jet, French Official Confirms. A French intelligence official quoted by CNN confirmed that Pakistan downed a Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force. The Pakistani Defense Ministry claims that five Indian Air Force aircraft: three Rafales, a MiG-29, a Sukhoi-series jet, and a drone, were downed in an overnight attack near the India-Pakistan border, carried out in retaliation for India’s launch of missile strikes on six targets inside Pakistan. India has not yet confirmed the reported losses. However, the Associated Press reported that two aircraft crashed into villages in Indian-administered Kashmir. French authorities are now investigating whether the two remaining Rafales were also destroyed. Photographs from the crash sites appear to show debris marked with French manufacturer labels, though analysis is still underway. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
08 May 25. India-Pakistan: Further tit-for-tat retaliatory actions will sustain elevated security risks. Earlier on 8 May, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) claimed that the security forces shot down 25 Harop drones operated by India since the previous night. ISPR claimed that the drones targeted nine locations. It stated that four soldiers were injured near Lahore (Punjab province) and that one civilian was killed in Miano (Sindh province). Consequently, the US consulate in Lahore issued a shelter-in-place notice for consulate personnel while Pakistan temporarily suspended flights at major airports. Following ISPR’s claims, India issued a statement claiming that it had neutralised several Pakistani missile and drone attacks targeting military sites in northern and western India on the night of 7-8 May, and that it had retaliated by targeting Pakistan’s air defence systems. India claimed to have neutralised Lahore’s air defence systems (likely referring to the drone activity). Indian media outlets earlier reported that missile debris was found in Makhan Windi village (Amritsar district, Punjab state), after explosions were heard overnight; no damage or injuries were reported. Meanwhile, cross-border firing and shelling reportedly continued overnight along the Line of Control (LoC). These developments follow India’s launch of Operation Sindoor (see Sibylline Alert – 7 May 2025), during which it struck various alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan. This prompted Pakistan to declare on 7 May that it would respond in kind, though it stated it would only hit military targets. The developments and lack of any sign of clear de-escalation (so far) will sustain elevated security and disruption risks in both countries due to likely continued tit-for-tat activity, particularly in the disputed Kashmir region and areas near the international border. (Source: Sibylline)
08 May 25. North Korea fires short-range missiles possibly in performance test for export.
• Summary
• Companies
• Multiple missiles of different types fired from coast
• South Korea says launch was likely to test performance
• North Korea under U.N. sanctions on ballistic missiles
• Analyst says missiles were the kind used by Russia to strike Ukraine
North Korea fired what appeared to be multiple short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast, South Korea’s military said on Thursday, possibly to test the performance and stability of various projectiles intended for export. The missiles were launched from Wonsan, North Korea’s eastern coastal city, around 8:10 a.m. (2310 GMT Wednesday) and flew up to 800 km (497 miles) before splashing down in the sea, the military said in a statement. (Source: Reuters)
08 May 25. Starmer to promise ‘defence dividend’ from UK military spending. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to promise on Thursday that his government will deliver a “defence dividend” for voters, framing an increase in military spending forced by a U.S. shift away from underwriting Europe’s security as an economic opportunity. Marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day (VE Day), Starmer is expected to say that higher defence spending will strengthen national security and support communities across the country by creating more jobs. Addressing policymakers, military figures, defence firms and academics at a defence conference, Starmer will also announce a £563m ($751m) contract for Rolls-Royce (RR.L) to maintain the Royal Air Force’s Typhoon jets.
“Our task now is to seize the defence dividend – felt directly in the pockets of working people, rebuilding our industrial base and creating the jobs of the future,” Starmer will say, according to advance extracts of his remarks.
“A national effort. A time for the state, business and society to join hands, in pursuit of the security of the nation and the prosperity of its people.” (Source: Reuters)
07 May 25. Russia: Kremlin is unlikely to accept Chechen leader’s resignation in short term to ensure stability. On 6 May, Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Republic of Chechnya (in Russia’s North Caucasus region), stated that he had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for permission to resign. This development comes amid reports of Kadyrov’s deteriorating health, which have surfaced previously. Kadyrov added that he would remain in office if that were Putin’s decision. The Chechen leader has made similar requests since 2016, all of which have been rejected by the Kremlin. Kadyrov’s highly repressive rule since 2007 has succeeded in suppressing severe ethno-religious instability in both Chechnya and the wider North Caucasus. While his 26-year-old daughter Aishat Kadyrova and 17-year-old son Adam Kadyrov have played increasingly prominent roles alongside him, it remains unclear who would succeed Kadyrov in the event of his resignation. We assess that the Kremlin is unlikely to accept Kadyrov’s resignation in the absence of a suitable successor, though the older Adam gets, the more likely this becomes. In the meantime, ensuring stability in Chechnya and the broader region remains a high priority for the Kremlin, especially given its current embroilment in the war in Ukraine. (Source: Sibylline)
07 May 25. India-Pakistan: Potential for further strikes will drive armed conflict risk, operational disruption. Earlier on 7 May, the Indian armed forces launched Operation Sindoor and claimed to have struck nine targets in connection with militant groups within Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Islamabad claimed that the strikes killed 26 civilians, injured 46 others, and hit locations in Azad Kashmir and Punjab province. Pakistan has claimed to have downed five Indian fighter jets that were operating within Indian airspace. There are reported exchanges of artillery fire near the Poonch and Rajouri districts (both Jammu and Kashmir union territory). Commercial air travel to and from Pakistan and northern India has been disrupted. Given the scale of India’s attacks, we assess there is a realistic possibility that Islamabad will retaliate with air strikes of its own within the coming days, driving the risk of a tit-for-tat escalation. Over the coming hours and days, associated risks will likely be centred in the disputed Kashmir region, but other locations near Kashmir and the international border also face a risk of being impacted. (Source: Sibylline)
02 May 25. South Africa: New budget is unlikely to moderate long-term government stability, economic risks. On 30 April, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced that the revised budget will be presented to parliament on 21 May. This follows successive delays due to a disputed planned VAT rise, which led to the African National Congress (ANC)’s primary Government of National Unity (GNU) partner, the Democratic Alliance (DA), challenging its legality in court. Following the abandoned VAT rise, it is likely the budget will pass with the support of existing GNU members, moderating short-term government stability risks. However, we assess entrenched tensions between the ANC and the DA, exacerbated by the protracted budget process, will likely persist, sustaining long-term government stability risks as well as the possibility of the DA’s withdrawal from the GNU. Meanwhile, the removal of the planned VAT rise will leave a ZAR 75 bn (USD 4 bn) shortfall in the budget. The government will likely propose that this shortfall is covered by improved revenue collection. However, the feasibility of such measures is currently unclear, likely sustaining budget deficit and broader socio-economic health concerns owing to high debt servicing costs. (Source: Sibylline)
02 May 25. India-Pakistan: Tensions, risk of armed conflict remain elevated despite hotline talks. On 1 May, according to an Indian defence official, Pakistan continued ‘unprovoked small-arms fire’ at various locations along the Line of Control (LoC) for the seventh consecutive day. Reportedly, India responded to the cross-border firing. This comes amid reports of the Directorate Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) of India and Pakistan holding ceasefire talks over a hotline on 29 April. These developments also follow US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urging Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar to work with Pakistan to de-escalate tensions on the border on 30 April. Separately, news outlets reported that Air India expects to face losses of around USD 600m, along with additional costs due to Pakistan’s closure of its airspace to Indian airlines. Air India also urged the Indian government to compensate it for the potential losses. Given the elevated tensions, public anger and the risk of an imminent Indian strike, we assess that the risk of a military escalation will remain elevated despite DGMO talks. Additionally, expanded airspace closures are also possible, increasing losses for airlines and disruption risks for travellers. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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