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24 Apr 25. Kazakhstan: Robust counter-terrorism capabilities will mitigate against international terrorism threat. On 24 April, media reports indicated that a Kazakh court sentenced a resident of the capital Astana to seven years in prison for promoting terrorist ideology and attempting to join a terrorist group in Syria. The suspect was detained by law enforcement at Almaty International Airport (ALA) while trying to travel to Syria via Turkey. Although the reports did not specify the individual’s ideological affiliation, we assess it is highly likely that the suspect supported Islamist terrorism and intended to join a group such as Islamic State (IS), which remains active in Syria. IS’ Central Asian branch, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), is the most active terrorist group in the region, where it is conducting an active recruitment campaign. The sentencing underscores that Kazakh law enforcement possesses robust monitoring capabilities for detecting Islamist activity online. Ultimately, we assess that the threat of international terrorism will remain lower in Kazakhstan than in other Central Asian countries, such as Tajikistan, due to proactive counter-terrorism efforts by the security forces. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Apr 25. Russia: Kremlin will likely seek to retain Central Bank chief to guide early post-war economy. Reports emerged on 23 April that the governor of Russia’s Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is expected to stay in her role until her term expires in 2027. According to two unnamed senior insiders familiar with the matter (one Russian official and one high-level figure in the finance sector), Nabiullina’s position is secure, provided no major policy mistakes occur. Concerns about replacing her (as well as possibly any members of her team who may be tempted to seek more lucrative work elsewhere) are reportedly already being discussed within some circles. In April, Nabiullina received rare praise in Russia’s parliament for shielding the economy from Western sanctions imposed following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Concurrently, she has endured criticism and doubts about her competence with tackling high inflation. While we cannot confirm the reports, their existence would possibly signal that Nabiullina’s favour with President Vladimir Putin is strong enough for the Kremlin to view her as a capable figure to lead the early phases of Russia’s post-war economic policy. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Apr 25. Congo (DRC): Possible truce is unlikely to result in lasting ceasefire; security risks remain elevated. On 23 April, the Congolese government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group issued a joint statement indicating they would work to establish a ceasefire in eastern DRC. This marks the first joint statement from the warring parties and follows weeks of Qatari-mediated negotiations. The DRC read-out from the talks stated that both parties had agreed to observe a temporary truce while engaging in further negotiations; the M23 read-out did not include this claim. As such, while a temporary de-escalation in clashes between the Congolese armed forces (FARDC) and M23 militants remains possible, we assess that the truce is highly unlikely to hold in the coming weeks. Consequently, security conditions in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces (both DRC) are highly unlikely to improve in the short-to-medium term, sustaining significant security, bystander and sexual violence risks for locally engaged staff. While ceasefire negotiations will likely continue in the coming months, the M23 will likely seek significant concessions from the DRC, moderating prospects for the implementation of a durable ceasefire. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Apr 25. India-Pakistan: Downgrading of ties underscores elevated risk of confrontation in coming days. On 23 April, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced a range of measures aimed at downgrading ties with Pakistan. He stated that cross-border links to the recent attack in Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory were discovered during a meeting of the security cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. As a result, New Delhi has closed its main Attari border crossing with Pakistan, suspended the landmark Indus Water Treaty, expelled defence advisers from the Pakistan High Commission and barred Pakistani nationals from travelling to India under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) visa exemption programme (giving them 48 hours to leave the country). These actions come after more than 20 people were killed and 17 others were injured after militants opened fire on tourists in Pahalgam (Jammu and Kashmir). Pakistan has denied any involvement in the incident. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened a meeting of the national security committee on 24 April. New Delhi’s initial measures have significantly escalated tensions with Islamabad; we assess the risk of confrontation with Pakistan is likely to increase in the coming days as India considers a military response. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Apr 25. China asks Korea not to supply products using rare earths to US defence firms, paper reports.
- Summary
- Companies
- China warns Korean firms of sanctions over rare earth exports – report
- China’s export restrictions part of response to U.S. tariffs
- South Korea holds stockpiles, plans talks with U.S. on tariffs
Beijing recently asked South Korean companies not to ship products containing China’s rare earth minerals to U.S. defence firms, the Korea Economic Daily reported on Tuesday, citing government and company sources. The report had initially said China’s Ministry of Commerce warned Korean companies they could face sanctions if they violated the export restrictions. The ministry delivered the message in letters to Korean companies which make power transformers, batteries, displays, electric vehicles, aerospace and medical equipment, the report said. (Source: Reuters)
23 Apr 25. India: Militant attack in Kashmir will elevate tensions, risk of possible confrontation with Pakistan. On 22 April, at least 28 people were killed and 17 injured after militants opened fire on tourists in Pahalgam (Jammu and Kashmir union territory). The victims were mostly civilians, including two foreign nationals. The attack, one of the deadliest targeting civilians in recent years, has reportedly been claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), an affiliate of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). TRF has been responsible for conducting several attacks targeting security personnel. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice and cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia. Security will almost certainly be significantly heightened in the region. However, the prospect of a spillover of militant activity beyond the region is likely limited due to heightened security and militant groups’ limited capacity to operate elsewhere. The attack preceded the Amarnath Yatra (Hindu pilgrimage) and will likely disrupt the local tourism sector. A bandh (shutdown) commenced in the union territory earlier on 23 April. Given India regularly accuses Pakistan of supporting Kashmir-based militants, we assess that the incident will highly likely elevate tensions and the risk of confrontation along the Line of Control (LoC) in the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Apr 25. Colombia: Suspension of military action against guerrilla group will lower armed conflict risks. On 18 April, President Gustavo Petro suspended a military offensive against the Central General Staff (EMC) guerrilla faction led by ‘Calarcá Córdoba’ until 18 May to facilitate ceasefire and peace negotiations. The suspension follows the expiration of a ceasefire between the faction and the government on 15 April (the government and Calarcá Córdoba had maintained a rolling ceasefire since December 2023). The authorities also stated that the suspension aims to ‘guarantee security conditions’ for the agriculture and logistics sectors in Caquetá, Guaviare, Huila, Meta and Putumayo departments. In the immediate term, negotiations will sustain the low risk of armed clashes between Calarcá Córdoba and the military, reducing bystander safety and collateral damage risks. We assess that a renewed ceasefire agreement between Calarcá Córdoba and the government is likely in the short-to-medium term, though sporadic attacks, clashes and kidnappings remain a realistic possibility. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Apr 25. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Repeated cross-border shooting allegations will reduce peace prospects. On 21 April, Armenia’s defence ministry reported that Azerbaijani forces opened fire towards the village of Khoznavar, located in Syunik province (Armenia) near the two countries’ shared border. The Armenian defence ministry stated that a residential building was damaged; it provided photographs as evidence for the incident. No casualties were reported. This marks the second such incident reported by Yerevan this year, with the first occurring on 31 March. In turn, Azerbaijan has made numerous accusations against Armenian forces, claiming they were responsible for various cross-border shootings. Recently, Azerbaijan’s defence ministry accused Armenian forces of firing small arms at Azerbaijani military positions near the border with Syunik on 18 April. The growing frequency of such claims, including those from Armenia, underscores the increasingly volatile situation at the border (particularly the southern border). We assess that such accusations will continue obstructing meaningful progress in peace negotiations, sustaining regional tensions. However, we also assess the risk of armed conflict will remain low in the short-to-medium term. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Apr 25. Colombia: Suspension of military action against guerrilla group will lower armed conflict risks. On 18 April, President Gustavo Petro suspended a military offensive against the Central General Staff (EMC) guerrilla faction led by ‘Calarcá Córdoba’ until 18 May to facilitate ceasefire and peace negotiations. The suspension follows the expiration of a ceasefire between the faction and the government on 15 April (the government and Calarcá Córdoba had maintained a rolling ceasefire since December 2023). The authorities also stated that the suspension aims to ‘guarantee security conditions’ for the agriculture and logistics sectors in Caquetá, Guaviare, Huila, Meta and Putumayo departments. In the immediate term, negotiations will sustain the low risk of armed clashes between Calarcá Córdoba and the military, reducing bystander safety and collateral damage risks. We assess that a renewed ceasefire agreement between Calarcá Córdoba and the government is likely in the short-to-medium term, though sporadic attacks, clashes and kidnappings remain a realistic possibility. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Apr 25. Myanmar: Armed conflict, socio-economic health risks will persist as ceasefire is set to expire. Later on 22 April, a 20-day ceasefire between the military junta and the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) is due to expire. A truce has been in place since 2 April following a 7.7 magnitude earthquake that caused widespread destruction and killed over 3,700 people (see Sibylline Alert – 28 March 2025). At the time of writing, there are conflicting reports regarding a possible extension of the truce, though no official confirmation of any such extension has been monitored. Fighting between the junta and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) persisted throughout the ceasefire, albeit at a slightly lower intensity. In the absence of a renewed ceasefire, the junta is likely to increase its airstrikes against opposition-controlled areas. This will exacerbate operational disruption, security and socio-economic risks; relief efforts will also be undermined. Separately, on 19 April, the junta announced plans to redesign the capital Naypyidaw, where the earthquake reportedly damaged 70% of government buildings. However, given the junta’s limited resources and its current focus on the ongoing civil conflict, we assess it is highly unlikely that the capital will be fully rebuilt in the near term. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Apr 25. UK to step up military partnership with New Zealand as both countries drive forward defence and security agenda. The UK is set to deepen defence and security ties with New Zealand as the Prime Minster strengthens alliances abroad to protect Britain’s national interest.
- Prime Minister Keir Starmer and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon set to step up support for Ukraine with new drone contract and extension to Operation Interflex
- Comes as leaders agree to deepen defence and security ties, with the Royal New Zealand Navy preparing to join the UK’s Carrier Strike Group as it heads to the Indo-Pacific
- Leaders also expected to discuss the importance of growth and free trade for economic and national security
The UK is set to deepen defence and security ties with New Zealand as the Prime Minster strengthens alliances abroad to protect Britain’s national interest. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon this morning, with the leaders visiting the training of Ukrainian forces by the UK and New Zealand military as part of Operation Interflex. The visit follows the two leaders meeting at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa last year. New Zealand trainers have worked alongside British counterparts to help train more than 54,000 soldiers on Operation Interflex, and New Zealand are expected to today confirm that they will extend their support for the initiative in the UK until the end of the year. In addition to their support for training Ukrainian troops, military planners from the New Zealand Defence Force are contributing to the latest thinking and plans for post-conflict support for Ukraine through the Coalition of the Willing. Prime Minister Starmer will also announce UK contracts worth £30m for drones produced by SYOS Aerospace, a New Zealand uncrewed vehicle manufacturer based in Hampshire to support Ukraine. The contract has created 45 jobs at the manufacturing facility based in Fareham, Hampshire, and supports a further nine UK based companies with subcontracts – delivering on the government’s Plan for Change through both growth and security. During the visit to see the training first hand, the leaders are expected to discuss plans to further step up defence and security cooperation, with defence ministers being instructed to work on a new joint defence partnership between both countries to ensure the relationship is fit for the twenty-first century. The new arrangement, which will succeed the one signed in 2015, comes after both the UK and New Zealand increased defence spending to 2.5% and 2% of GDP respectively. It will also recognise the vital partnership between the UK and New Zealand in upholding stability and security across Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. That includes through the involvement of Royal New Zealand Navy frigate, HMNZS Te Kaha, which will join the UK Carrier Strike Group, which leaves Portsmouth today, in the Indian Ocean.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “Only by working with our friends and allies and protecting our national security will we be able to deliver on our Plan for Change, putting money back in the pockets of working people through highly skilled jobs – such as those we have announced today – a strong and resilient economy, and greater opportunity. From the beaches of Gallipoli, to the vital work we have been doing together on Operation Interflex and our support for Ukraine, the UK and New Zealand have stood shoulder-to-shoulder for generations in pursuit of peace and stability. As the world becomes an increasingly dangerous place, I am proud how much we are doing together to support our national and economic security – stepping up our defence spending, deploying our navies together in the Indo-Pacific, and continuing our work to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position to deter an increasingly aggressive Russia.”
Following the visit to Interflex training in the South West of England, the leaders will return to Downing Street to discuss how both countries can work together to drive growth, deliver on the government’s Plan for Change, and put money back in the pockets of working people. That will include increasing ambition on free and open trade, including through the global Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and New Zealand and the UK’s landmark Free Trade Agreement. Total trade in goods and services between the UK and New Zealand was £3.6 bn in 12 months to September 2024 an increase of 5.3%, or £179m in current prices, from 12 months leading up to September 2023. It comes after Scottish firm Emergency One won a global competition to supply emergency vehicles to Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ). Through the ten-year contract, East Ayrshire based Emergency One will replace 186 vehicles for New Zealand’s first responders, supporting 25 new jobs in Scotland. The UK and New Zealand are also deepening collaboration in the agriculture technology sector. A new Investor Partnership deal will see New Zealand investment in British small and medium enterprises to develop cutting edge equipment supporting growth, farming sustainability and food security. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
18 Apr 25. US Weapons Left for the Taliban Reportedly Used in Deadly Pakistan Attacks. More than half a million U.S.-supplied weapons left behind in Afghanistan following the 2021 withdrawal have been lost, sold, or smuggled by the Taliban, according to a BBC investigation and UN Security Council reports. The weapons, ranging from M4 and M16 rifles to grenade launchers and mortars, are reportedly now in the hands of regional militant groups. The Taliban seized control of an estimated one m weapons and military assets originally supplied by the United States to the Afghan National Army. As Afghan forces surrendered or fled during the Taliban’s rapid offensive in 2021, much of this equipment was left behind. Some were also abandoned by U.S. forces during their hasty evacuation from Kabul. A former Afghan official told the BBC that half of this equipment is now “unaccounted for,” a claim reportedly acknowledged by Taliban officials during a closed-door UN Sanctions Committee meeting in Doha in late 2023. The Taliban government denied these allegations. “All light and heavy weapons are securely stored. We strongly reject claims of smuggling or loss,” said Hamdullah Fitrat, deputy spokesperson for the Taliban, in a statement to the BBC. Multiple sources have confirmed the presence of U.S.-made arms with militant groups outside Afghanistan. In Pakistan, security officials say the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has benefited significantly from access to American weaponry, leading to increased attacks on Pakistani forces. The Pakistani military reportedly recovered dozens of M16 and M4 rifles and night-vision devices after recent operations, including a deadly hostage situation aboard the Jaffar Express train in Balochistan on March 11. The Washington Post reported that an M4A1 rifle recovered at the Jaffar Express attack site was traced back to equipment originally provided to U.S. forces in Afghanistan. According to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations, 33 militants were killed during the two-day clearance operation that followed the ambush, which initially left 21 civilians dead and several others held hostage.
“After the Jaffar Express attack, Pakistani officials provided serial numbers for three American rifles allegedly used by the attackers,” The Washington Post reported. “At least two came from U.S. stocks and had been provided to Afghan forces.”
Advanced weaponry such as FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles have also reportedly surfaced in militant propaganda. Pakistan’s The News International reported that footage released by the TTP in 2023 showed fighters training with Javelin systems, which are valued at over $160,000 each. The flow of these weapons is not limited to Pakistan. The UN has cited reports that groups including al-Qaeda affiliates, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, and Yemen’s Ansarullah movement have accessed Taliban-captured arms, either directly or via black market sales. Pakistani officials report that weapons markets along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border, particularly in Darra Adam Khel, experienced a surge in American arms inventory immediately following the Taliban takeover.
“The market was flooded with American weapons,” said Raz Muhammad, a longtime weapons trader interviewed by The Washington Post. Night-vision goggles that typically retail for $2,000 were reportedly being sold for as little as $300 in 2021.
According to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), more than $7bn in U.S. military equipment remained in Afghanistan at the time of the withdrawal. The report also criticized the Pentagon’s failure to track small arms, citing poor recordkeeping and inconsistencies in databases. Pakistan’s Foreign Office has described the influx of U.S. weapons into militant hands as “an issue of profound concern.” In a recent call between Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. U.S. President Donald Trump has previously called for the retrieval of the equipment, stating in February, “Afghanistan is one of the biggest sellers of military equipment in the world. I want to look into this… we want our military equipment back.” (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
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