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02 Apr 25. India-Pakistan: Escalation is unlikely in contested Kashmir amid alleged Pakistani ceasefire violation. Earlier on 2 April, an Indian army colonel cited in local news claimed that Pakistani troops violated a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC). He stated that Pakistani soldiers intruded into the Krisna Ghati Sector (Poonch district, Jammu and Kashmir union territory) along the LoC on 1 April, triggering an anti-infiltration mine. Both sides allegedly opened fire. No casualties have been reported. The incident has not been corroborated by Pakistani or international news outlets. Since a renewed ceasefire came into force in 2021, violations have been rare. We assess that neither side is intent on provoking a significant military escalation in the short-to-medium term. In recent weeks, India has conducted counter-terrorism operations in Kathua district (Jammu and Kashmir union territory) to contain militant activity there. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah is scheduled to visit Jammu and Kashmir from 7-8 April. We assess that there will almost certainly be a heightened security force presence ahead of and during his visit. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Apr 25. Latest North Korean ship can carry dozens of missiles, analysts say. North Korea’s new class of warship can accommodate dozens of vertical launch cells to carry missiles its military has already developed, analysis of a satellite image showed, a step that would give its navy more punch and create an export opportunity. Little is known about the unnamed class of ships being built in the Chongjin and Nampo shipyards. In December, South Korea’s military said they would displace about 4,000 tons, somewhat less than half the size of a U.S. Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.
“They’re pretty big cavities,” said Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California.
“I would think 32 (missiles) in front and a few fewer in the back would be a very reasonable number. Or it could be a much smaller number of ballistic missiles.” (Source: Reuters)
01 Apr 25. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Imminent resumption of hostilities is unlikely despite heightened tensions. The Armenian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 31 March that at around 0050hrs (local time), Azerbaijani armed forces fired on Khnatsakh (a village in Syunik province, Armenia). No-one was injured during the reported provocation, though the ministry disclosed that a house sustained damage and shared imagery that purported to show a broken window. The alleged incident comes amid an uptick in unconfirmed Azerbaijani claims that Armenian units fired on Azerbaijani positions following the completion of a peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku in mid-March. We assess that recent Azerbaijani allegations of provocations are highly likely aimed at either stalling the signing of the peace accord or creating grounds to abandon it entirely (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 26 March 2025). Concurrently, the report from the Armenian MoD is noteworthy as the ministry had not reported any cross-border provocations by Azerbaijan since 9 April 2024. While the development marks a moderate uptick in regional tensions, we continue to assess that the risk of renewed armed conflict in the near term is low. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Apr 25. Congo (DRC): Talks raise prospect of temporary reduction in fighting. On 1 April, representatives from both the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the M23 rebel group stated that the two sides will participate in direct talks on 9 April, marking the first time the two sides will negotiate directly. There remains a possibility that either side will pull out of negotiations, as was the case when the M23 withdrew from talks scheduled for 18 March. However, talks are unlikely to secure a durable ceasefire in the short term. The M23 maintain the battlefield advantage, continuing to make advances across several fronts. It will likely seek substantial concessions from Kinshasa. By contrast, President Felix Tshisekedi’s government is highly divided over talks, with key stakeholders demanding greater investment in a military solution. As such, while a ceasefire declaration is possible, resulting in a temporary reduction in fighting, we assess that the agreement is unlikely to hold, sustaining the risk of conflict expansion westwards into Maniema and Tshopo provinces. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Apr 25. India: Sustained security operations will reduce Naxalite threat in Red Corridor. On 1 April, Home Minister Amit Shah announced that the number of districts considered ‘most affected’ by left-wing extremism (involving Naxalite insurgent groups active in the ‘Red Corridor’) had fallen from 12 to six. Shah also promised to eliminate Naxalism by 31 March 2026. The Ministry of Home Affairs named the remaining ‘most affected’ districts as Bijapur, Kanker, Narayanpur and Sukma (all Chhattisgarh state), Gadchiroli (Maharashtra state) and West Singhbhum (Jharkhand state). The number of ‘districts of concern’ and ‘other affected districts’ has also fallen. The announcement comes just days after 50 Naxalites surrendered in Bijapur, while 13 were arrested on 31 March, also in Bijapur. The security forces have stepped up operations against Naxalite groups in the past year; they have focused on Bastar division (Chhattisgarh), which has resulted in increasing numbers of Naxalites being killed, detained or surrendering. Given the pressure from the authorities, we assess that residual Naxalite activity will become increasingly restricted to villages in rural parts of affected areas. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Apr 25. Congo (DRC)-Uganda: New rebel groups will possibly escalate conflict in Ituri, drive regional tensions. On 31 March, Reuters published claims by the convicted war criminal Thomas Lubanga that his newly established rebel group, the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CPR), has deployed armed forces to three areas of Ituri province in Congo (DRC). While currently unconfirmed, there is a realistic possibility that Uganda is using the CPR (which allegedly comprises both political and military elements and aims to change the government in Ituri) as a vehicle for expanding Uganda’s influence in eastern DRC. Lubanga, who is based in Uganda, has been a prominent member of several Ugandan-backed rebel groups since the Second Congo war. Additionally, as he is an ethnic Hema, Lubanga’s CPR would likely assist Ugandan forces in combatting the largely Lendu CODECU group, which it has been fighting around Fataki (Ituri) for several weeks. We previously assessed that, despite belligerent rhetoric, Uganda was highly unlikely to take direct action to secure its interests in eastern DRC. However, it is possible that, like Rwanda, Uganda would be willing to utilise a local rebel group to advance its interests (see Sibylline Special Report – 20 February 2025). As such, there is a realistic possibility that the CPR’s formation will drive an escalation in conflict in Ituri and threaten to undermine relations between the DRC and Uganda. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Apr 25. China-Taiwan: Spontaneous Chinese military drills around Taiwan will elevate cross-strait tensions. Earlier on 1 April, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s Eastern Theater Command began joint exercises around Taiwan involving army, navy, air and rocket forces. The exercises include simulated blockades and assaults on maritime and ground targets. No live fire drills or material operational disruption have been reported at the time of writing. The China Coast Guard (CCG) was carrying out ‘law enforcement patrols’ around the island, while Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) detected China’s Shandong aircraft carrier group near the island. A PLA spokesperson claimed the drills ‘serve as a stern warning and forceful deterrent’ against separatist forces; no end date/time has been announced. The exercises come days after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pledged during his visit to the region that the US would ensure ‘credible deterrence’ across the Taiwan Strait. We assess that China has effectively normalised military drills around Taiwan as a ‘grey zone’ tactic to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty (see Sibylline Special Report – 23 January 2025). However, we assess it is highly unlikely that China is seeking to initiate an armed conflict in the short term. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Apr 25. China launches military drills around Taiwan, calls its president a ‘parasite.’
- Summary
- China’s military says drills are a warning against Taiwan independence
- China’s military video calls Taiwan president a ‘parasite’
- Taiwan sources says Chinese warships approach close to contiguous zone
- Lai depiction ‘not conducive to peace’, says Taiwan
- Taiwan dispatches military aircraft, ships in response
BEIJING/TAIPEI, April 1 (Reuters) – China began joint army, navy and rocket force exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday as a “stern warning” against separatism and called Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te a “parasite”, as Taiwan sent warships to respond to China’s navy approaching its coast. The exercises around the democratically governed island, which China views as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring under its control, come after Lai called Beijing a “foreign hostile force” last month. (Source: Reuters)
30 Mar 14. Defense Secretary Announces U.S. Forces Japan’s Upgrade to Joint Force Command. During a joint press conference in Tokyo today, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the Defense Department has started phase one of upgrading U.S. Forces Japan to a joint force headquarters. The department originally announced in 2024 that USFJ would be upgraded from a primarily administrative command to a joint force headquarters, meaning it would have more warfighting and operational responsibilities. Hegseth said the USFJ upgrade will help improve the command’s ability to operate with Japan’s Joint Operations Command, which was just established March 24, 2025, and is responsible for commanding branches of the Japan Self-Defense Forces.
“We certainly welcome JJOC’s establishment this past week,” Hegseth said during his opening remarks.
“It’s more urgency it’s more cooperation in real time. It also increases our readiness to respond to contingency or crisis, support U.S. operations and help Japan and U.S. forces defend territory,” he added.
As part of the USFJ’s upgrade, Hegseth said DOD will soon add additional personnel to both Tokyo and USFJ headquarters at Yokota Air Base to conduct activities aimed at strengthening bilateral bonds with the U.S. military’s Japanese counterparts, as well as deepening operational cooperation. Hegseth also said reorganizing USFJ into a warfighting headquarters would necessitate increased staff and the empowerment of USFJ’s commander with the authority needed to accomplish new missions.
“America and Japan … we seek peace,” Hegseth said.
“But, as my first platoon motto says, ‘Those who long for peace must prepare for war.’ We must be prepared, we look forward to working closely together as we improve our warfighting capabilities, our lethality and our readiness,” he added.
Regarding China’s growing threat in the Indo-Pacific region, Hegseth said America is committed to sustaining a ready, robust and credible deterrence throughout the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command area of operations, including across the Taiwan Strait. Reestablishing deterrence is one of the three core pillars Hegseth listed in his message to the force Jan. 25, 2025, with restoring the warrior ethos and rebuilding the military being the other two.
“Our job at the Defense Department … is to build an alliance so robust that both the reality and the perception of deterrence is real and ongoing so that the Communist Chinese don’t take the aggressive action that some have contemplated they will,” Hegseth said.
“Japan would be on the front lines of any contingency we might face in the Western Pacific, and we stand together in support of each other.”
Hegseth’s visit to Japan represents the last stop during a weeklong trip throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Having already traveled to Hawaii, Guam, the Philippines and the island of Iwo Jima, Hegseth spent the week meeting with senior U.S. military and civilian leadership. He also interacted with troops from all branches of service at multiple stops and participated in a series of international bilateral meetings, with the goal of strengthening U.S. alliances and partnerships, as well as achieving a shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region. (Source: U.S. DoD)
30 Mar 14. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Concludes Visit to Japan. Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell provided the following statement: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth traveled to Japan this week to meet with Japanese counterparts and U.S. military leadership in support of the Department’s efforts to reestablish deterrence, strengthen our Alliance, and advance our shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. On March 29, Secretary Hegseth participated in a ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Iwo Jima. In his remarks, the Secretary reaffirmed that the U.S.-Japan Alliance remains the cornerstone of peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. On March 30, Secretary Hegseth met with Defense Minister Nakatani, where the two discussed concrete steps to deepen defense cooperation across a range of areas, including through enhancing bilateral training and exercises, strengthening Alliance force posture and presence, including in Japan’s Southwest Islands, and promoting defense equipment and technology cooperation. The Secretary also announced the commencement of Phase One of the upgrade of U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) to a Joint Force Headquarters, in line with the President and Prime Minister’s joint statement from February 7 to upgrade the respective command and control frameworks of U.S. and Japanese forces. The upgrade of USFJ, matched with Japan’s establishment of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) Joint Operations Command (JJOC), will improve the ability of the U.S. and Japan to coordinate bilateral operations, increase our readiness to respond to a contingency or crisis, and reestablish deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region. Both actions will allow for more seamless coordination between U.S. and Japanese forces in peacetime or in crisis. Secretary Hegseth also met with Prime Minister Ishiba to celebrate the strength of the U.S.-Japan Alliance, demonstrated at the meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Ishiba on February 7, and to underscore the United States’ commitment to the defense of Japan. Before departing, the Secretary visited USFJ Headquarters to meet with the Commander of USFJ and our servicemembers stationed at Yokota Air Base. (Source: U.S. DoD)
28 Mar 25. Guyana-Venezuela-US: Guyana, US joint military exercises will increase regional tension risks. On 27 March, the Guyanese Defence Force (GDF) and the US Navy announced plans for joint military exercises in international waters in Guyana’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the coming days. The USS Normandy (a Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser) and the GDFS Shahoud (a Defiant-class patrol vessel) will participate in the exercises. The manoeuvres coincide with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Guyana, Jamaica and Suriname. Rubio will reportedly reaffirm US support for Guyana regarding its sovereignty over the disputed Essequibo region, which neighbouring Venezuela claims. On 25 May, Venezuela is slated to elect a governor for the Essequibo region despite not controlling the territory. In the immediate term, supply chain and operational disruption risks will possibly increase for the maritime logistics sector proximate to the EEZ. We assess that the exercises almost certainly increase regional tension risks. However, we continue to assess that a war between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region is a remote possibility in the long term. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Mar 25. Sudan: Advancing government offensive in Khartoum is unlikely to end civil conflict. On 27 March, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) began shelling locations associated with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Omdurman (Khartoum state). The move comes amid a rapidly advancing SAF offensive in the adjacent capital Khartoum. Since 20 March, the SAF has re-retaken numerous key positions in Khartoum, including the Presidential Palace and Khartoum International Airport (KRT), triggering an RSF withdrawal into Omdurman. In the coming days, the SAF will likely continue building on its operational momentum to retake RSF positions in the Omdurman area. Such operations will highly likely include running battles and mortar fire in residential areas, paired with airstrikes and shelling (particularly in eastern Omdurman). These operations will increase security risks for civilians and locally engaged staff, including those sheltering in designated humanitarian zones. Although the SAF will possibly re-take Omdurman in the coming weeks, it will likely struggle to make similarly rapid advances beyond Khartoum state. We assess that the RSF will almost certainly remain entrenched in Darfur region, sustaining risks of protracted armed conflict in the long term. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Mar 14. Hegseth Says U.S., Philippines Agree on Plan to Reestablish Deterrence in Indo-Pacific. During a joint press conference in Manila today, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the U.S. and the Philippines have come together to work toward reestablishing military deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region.
“The United States has been fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with the Philippines since World War II. Our partnership not only continues today, but we are doubling down on that partnership, and our ironclad alliance has never been stronger,” Hegseth said at the outset of the press conference.
Hegseth spent the first half of the day meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and then with his counterpart, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. The result of those talks, Hegseth said, was an understanding of how to not just continue with the status quo but to “accelerate the progress in U.S.–Philippines alliance.”
The four-piece plan, which Hegseth said would build upon the United States’ late July 2024 commitment of $500bn to modernize the Philippine military, includes an agreement that the United States will deploy additional advanced military capabilities to the Philippines, plans for bilateral training between both nations for high-end operations, an agreement to prioritize bilateral defense industrial cooperation, and an agreement to launch a bilateral cyber campaign. Hegseth said the U.S. intends to send additional capabilities to the Philippine military. Most notably, the Defense Department will provide the Philippines with the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or NMESIS, for Exercise Balikatan this spring. A combination of multiple proven capabilities, the NMESIS combines a lethal strike missile mounted on the chassis of a joint light tactical vehicle that can be operated remotely. In addition to the NMESIS, Hegseth said the U.S. would also provide highly capable unmanned surface vehicles for Balikatan, the most prominent annual military exercise between the U.S. and the Philippines.
“These systems will enable U.S. forces and the Armed Forces of the Philippines to train together on using advanced capabilities to defend the Philippines’ sovereignty,” Hegseth said.
Regarding industrial cooperation, he said a joint statement on the topic was released earlier today that identifies multiple priority areas, including co-producing unmanned systems and increased combined logistical support.
“These initiatives will help us share burdens and promote a more comprehensive partnership; we intend for these efforts to boost both of our economies and strengthen supply chain resilience,” he added.
Hegseth said the agreed-upon bilateral cyber campaign would aim to reduce cyber vulnerabilities across the U.S.-Philippines alliance, as well as increase cybersecurity to allow more advanced operational cooperation. Regarding the bilateral training for high-end operations, Hegseth said U.S. and Philippine special operations forces will train side-by-side in the Province of Batanes, approximately 100 miles north of Luzon. Calling the steps outlined “just the beginning an incredibly fruitful alliance” between the two countries, Hegseth said the U.S. and Philippines would also work together to convince other partners and allies in the Indo-Pacific region to step up their efforts and cooperation to increase their defense capabilities and strengthen deterrence. Hegseth also said that the U.S.–Philippines alliance “reflects strength” in the face of China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific and demonstrates a commitment to peace and security in the region.
“We do not seek war; we seek peace,” Hegseth said. “But those who long for peace must prepare for war, and stand united.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
28 Mar 14. United States–Philippines Joint Statement on Secretary Hegseth’s Inaugural Visit to the Philippines. United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made his inaugural visit to the Philippines as part of his first trip to the Indo-Pacific region to meet with President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. and Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro, Jr. on March 27-28, 2025. The leaders underscored the enduring strength of the U.S.-Philippines alliance and reaffirmed its importance for upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Secretary Hegseth and Secretary Teodoro reiterated both countries’ shared commitment to the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) in an increasingly complex security environment. The Secretaries also reaffirmed that the MDT extends to armed attacks against either country’s armed forces, aircraft, and public vessels – including those of their coast guards – anywhere in the South China Sea. They also underscored that, in addition to the MDT, the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) are critical foundations for continued alliance coordination and interoperability. Secretary Hegseth and Secretary Teodoro agreed to take several bold steps and set a robust agenda for the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the Philippine Department of National Defense (DND) to reestablish deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region and achieve Peace through Strength. These efforts will accelerate the defense partnership and ensure that the alliance is postured to address the most consequential challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
Key new initiatives include:
- Deploying more advanced U.S. capabilities in the Philippines, including the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) and highly capable unmanned surface vessels. Exercising with the NMESIS – a mobile, ground-based anti-ship missile launcher – as part of Exercise BALIKATAN and other service-to-service activities will improve interoperability and strengthen deterrence by providing coverage of strategic sea lanes from coastal positions. Training and testing on NMESIS and unmanned surface vessels as part of realistic exercises in the Philippines will increase the interoperability and operational readiness of U.S. and Philippine forces to leverage cutting-edge military capabilities in Indo-Pacific operational environments.
- Conducting advanced bilateral Special Operations Forces training in the Batanes Islands. U.S. Special Operations Forces and Philippine Marines will train together on complex landing scenarios to enhance interoperability between U.S. forces and the Armed Forces of the Philippines and improve combined capability to conduct high-end operations in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Publishing a bilateral defense industrial cooperation vision statement. The United States and the Philippines continue to advance their alliance through closer defense industrial base cooperation. This is intended to promote more robust military and industry partnerships, build supply chain resilience, strengthen our readiness, and bolster both nations’ economies. The Secretaries announced the release of a defense industrial cooperation vision statement that identifies priority areas for near-term cooperation, including potential co-production of unmanned systems and more robust logistics support. The statement includes lines of effort that the United States and the Philippines will explore to advance these priority areas, namely seeking to: reduce barriers, collaborate on new technology, and identify discrete opportunities for collaboration. Both countries intend for this vision statement to serve as a basis to advance regional security, economic security, and Indo-Pacific prosperity.
Launching a bilateral cybersecurity campaign. The DoD and DND will collaborate to reduce cyber vulnerabilities and enhance resilience across the alliance. This campaign intends to address three primary lines of effort: establishing a secure defense network, developing a capable cybersecurity workforce, and enabling advanced operational cooperation. Enhanced cyber capability and capacity will enable greater information and intelligence-sharing, improve our lethality, and facilitate increasingly advanced operational coordination. (Source: U.S. DoD)
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