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13 Mar 25. Congo (DRC)-Rwanda: Possible direct talks with M23 increase protest, unrest risks. On 12 March, Angola announced it would host direct negotiations between the DRC and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group on 18 March. A DRC spokesperson confirmed the reception of Angola’s invitation but did not indicate whether it would attend. Given Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi’s long-standing opposition to direct negotiations with M23, there is a realistic possibility that the DRC will not attend, limiting the talks’ effectiveness and increasing bilateral tensions with Angola. However, direct engagement with M23 would likely trigger criticism from parties within Tshisekedi’s Sacred Union of the Nation (USN) coalition. This will increase government stability risks amid ongoing coalition restructuring efforts and possibly trigger anti-government protests and unrest in the capital Kinshasa. Additionally, the European Council of Foreign Ministers will meet on 17 March, likely to discuss sanctioning Rwanda for supporting M23; however, the European Commission remains highly unlikely to revoke its minerals agreement with Rwanda. As such, we assess that the possibility of unrest and vandalism targeting assets and locations linked to European states will increase in the coming days, particularly in Kinshasa. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Mar 25. SADC to withdraw troops from the DRC. A Southern African Development Community (SADC) extraordinary summit on Thursday terminated the mandate of the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) and directed the phased withdrawal of troops from the Democratic Republic of Congo, nearly two months after more than a dozen soldiers were killed fighting M23 rebels. The Extraordinary Summit of the Heads of State and Government of the SADC was held on 13 March in Harare, Zimbabwe, to deliberate on the security situation in the DRC. It was attended by a dozen heads of state and several senior SADC ministers. From South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa took part. In a communique following the summit, the SADC said it received the latest updates on the security situation in the Eastern DRC and considered the Report on the SAMIDRC Mandate from the Extraordinary SADC Organ Troika Summit which was held on 6 March. It noted “with grave concern the continued deterioration of the security situation in the Eastern DRC, including the capturing of Goma and Bukavu, and the blockage of the main supply routes, making it difficult for humanitarian aid to flow.” After briefly mentioning the termination of the SAMIDRC mandate and “commencement of a phased withdrawal of SAMIDRC troops from the DRC,” the SADC emphasised its dedication to addressing the ongoing conflict in the DRC and “reaffirmed its commitment to support interventions aimed at bringing lasting peace and security in the Eastern DRC, in line with the SADC Mutual Defence Pact of 2003.” SADC nations reaffirmed their commitment to continue supporting the DRC in its pursuit of safeguarding its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as sustainable peace, security and development. This includes through political and diplomatic solutions with all parties including state, non-state parties, military and non-military in the Eastern DRC. As part of peace efforts, the Luanda and Nairobi peace processes have been merged, and more facilitators have been added to enhance the peace-building process. The decision to terminate SAMIDRC comes after weeks of speculation that the mission would be dissolved following the deaths of 18 SADC troops in fighting around Goma and Sake in North Kivu in late January. Fourteen South African soldiers were killed. Malawi announced its withdrawal from SAMIDRC following the capture of Goma by M23 rebels and the loss of several of its troops. At Thursday’s meeting, the summit “expressed its deepest condolences to the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republics of South Africa and Malawi, and the United Republic of Tanzania, and to the families of the deceased soldiers who lost their lives while serving under the SAMIDRC and wished those injured a speedy recovery.”
Hundreds of SAMIDRC troops, including from South Africa, remain under M23 control in Sake and Goma. Efforts to extract them are expected to move forward now that SAMIDRC’s mandate has been officially terminated. The 16-member SADC deployed its mission in the DRC in December 2023 to help the Congolese army fight rebel groups, but only South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi deployed troops. South Africa also has about 1 000 troops deployed in the DRC with the United Nations’ Monusco mission. Thursday’s summit comes a day after Angola announced that peace talks between the DRC and the Rwanda-backed M23 would begin next week. Angola’s presidential office said, “Following the steps taken by the Angolan mediation… delegations from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 will begin direct peace talks on 18 March in the city of Luanda.”
DRC President Felix Tshisekedi had previously refused to engage in dialogue with the M23 as demanded by Rwanda. Rwanda is estimated to have at least 4 000 troops in the DRC supporting the M23.
Pikkie Greeff, South African National Defence Union (Sandu) National Secretary, acknowledged the SAMIDRC withdrawal “with relief, particularly for the SANDF personnel who remain in a precarious situation. Over the past two months, they have endured immense hardship, and we welcome any steps that will ensure their safe return.”
Sandu said it trusts that concrete plans and negotiations are underway to facilitate an orderly and secure withdrawal. “However, we caution that this phase of the process is highly sensitive and must be handled with the utmost care.”
African Defence Review Director Darren Olivier also welcomed the SAMIDRC withdrawal. “In my view, although this has taken far too long, South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi did the right thing to ignore knee-jerk calls for immediate withdrawal while bringing SAMIDRC’s ongoing status into the EAC-SADC negotiation process along with a formal SADC mandate termination.”
“As I and many others have said several times, it has been clear ever since M23 captured Goma that SAMIDRC’s mandate was no longer viable and that the mission should be ended and the troops withdrawn. A mandate termination was all but inevitable.”
He believes that the SADC will want an orderly withdrawal, with equipment and weaponry intact, as part of the overarching East Africa Community-SADC negotiations process. “That would likely also require repairing the Goma Airport runway, as most equipment can only be airlifted out. M23 and Rwanda have previously signalled opposition to re-opening the airport and allowing a full withdrawal with equipment intact, so their response to this is crucial.” The Department of Defence was allocated R5 bn for South Africa’s SAMIDRC contribution over the next five years, “but that was contingency funding until it was clear what the outcome of the SADC process would be. With the withdrawal happening, some of the R5 bn will be used for that and the rest re-allocated by Treasury away from defence,” Olivier stated. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
13 Mar 25. South African Defence budget remains stagnant despite R5bn allocation for DRC deployment. South Africa’s defence budget has increased by just R400m from 2024/25 to R55.94bn for the 2025/26 financial year, representing a below inflation increase in what some defence experts have said is a disaster for the SA National Defence Force (SANDF). Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana on Wednesday 12 March delivered his Budget Speech, announcing that of the R2.59trn budget, R266.1bn is allocated for peace and security, including R133.4bn for the police, R60.8bn for defence and state security, R58.1bn towards law courts and prisons, and R13.9bn for home affairs, meaning .8% of GDP is allocated to the SANDF.
“Over the medium term, R5bn has been allocated to the Department of Defence to support South Africa’s participation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and to supplement existing peace keeping activities,” Godongwana said.
“We will continue working with the Department of Defence on ways to change the composition of expenditure to modernise the defence force,” he added.
The extra R5bn will be allocated over the next three years and is believed to amount to R1.8bn for the 2025/2026 financial year, R1.7bn in 2027 and R1.4bn in 2028. However, there still remains a shortfall as the 2025 calendar year deployment, in support of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), is estimated to cost R2.371bn.
President Cyril Ramaphosa in December last year authorised the deployment of up to 2 900 troops to the DRC to “support the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo in its efforts to neutralise illegal armed groups and negative forces in the conflict-affected areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo.”
South Africa also has over 1 000 troops committed to the United Nations peace mission in the DRC, Monusco. The South African presence in the DRC has been a source of controversy after 14 soldiers were killed and dozens more wounded in fighting M23 rebels in late January. The rebels subsequently captured Sake and Goma in North Kivu province, and have now taken Bukavu in South Kivu.
Border security a priority
In addition to peacekeeping, “border security remains a priority for the South African National Defence Force. Accordingly, over the [three year Medium Term Expenditure Framework] MTEF period, the department plans to continue to deploy 15 landward sub-units to patrol 4 471 km of South Africa’s land borders with Botswana, eSwatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe,” the defence budget vote read.
“The department will continue to prioritise the acquisition of vehicles and advanced technologies that serve as a force multiplier to enhance border protection and prevent illegal activities. It will also continue to support the South African Police Service to tackle internal security threats as they arise. These activities are carried out in the Support to the People subprogramme in the Force Employment programme, which has a budget of R4.1bn over the period ahead. An additional R150m is allocated in 2026/27 in the same subprogramme for the deployment of South African National Defence Force members to support the South African Police Service during the 2026 local government elections.”
Below inflation increase
The Defence portion of the budget vote stated that expenditure is set to increase at an average annual rate of 3%, from R55.5bn in 2024/25 to R58.179bn in 2026/27, and R60.662bn in 2027/28. This is below the average core inflation rate of 4.65% measured from 2009 until 2025, meaning the defence budget has declined again in real terms. Pressure on the budget means that the use of Reserve Force members has to be curtailed. In 2023/24, the SANDF made use of 3.2m reserve man days, but has allocated 1.9m for each of the next three financial years. Hours flown by the Air Force and hours spent by the Navy at sea have also been affected by budget cuts. The Air Force has a target of 12 000 hours a year over each of the next three years, but it is unlikely to achieve that, as it only flew 6 904 hours in 2023/24. Similarly, the Navy has a target of 8 000 hours at sea over each of the next three years, but only achieved 2 641 hours in 2023/24 due to a lack of serviceable vessels.
Head count reduction
Just over 65% of the budget (R115.1bn over the next three years) is going to salaries, aka the compensation of employees, “As the department’s work is labour intensive.” As the budget for compensation of employees remains constrained, to lessen the impact of this over the next three years, “the department will continue to manage commuted overtime within the South African Military Health Service by ensuring that it does not exceed 30% of each employee’s total annual salary package and allow natural attrition to ensure that personnel numbers do not exceed 73 000.
“To further manage personnel costs over the next two years, the department will facilitate the participation of a targeted 4 000 eligible members of the South African National Defence Force in the government-wide early retirement programme, which allows retirement without penalties on pension benefits,” the budget document stated.
In 2024/25 there were 71 051 personnel in the defence force, and this is set to rise to 71 654 in 2025/26, 73 069 in 2026/26, and 74 492 in 2027/28. The majority are employed within the Landward Defence division (35 063 personnel in 2024/25).
Additional spending for deputy minister
A further R34.7 m is allocated to the department of defence over the next three years to cover expenses associated with the appointment of the second deputy minister of defence and military veterans. After the 2024 election, Ramaphosa added a second deputy defence and military veterans minister to his seventh administration cabinet. Richard Mkhungo and Bantu Holomisa serve as deputies under Minister Angie Motshekga.
Budget a ‘disaster’
Defence expert Dean Wingrin said the defence budget has increased nominally by .78%, which is an “absolute disaster for the SANDF. With an inflation rate of 4.4% in 2024, this increase falls well below inflation, effectively reducing the real purchasing power of the budget. This is bad.” He pointed out the defence budget equates to .80% of GDP, considered very low for military spending relative to international benchmarks. “This can still be viewed as a disaster for the SANDF and its abilities to carry out its missions. The Deputy Minister had constantly stated it would be increased to 1.5%.” To maintain its real value, the budget should have increased to at least R57.94bn (R55.51bn + 4.4%), Wingrin maintains. Instead, the shortfall of approximately R2bn means that, in real terms, the SANDF has less money than previous years to cover operational costs, salaries, maintenance, and procurement.
“Air and Maritime Defence remain underfunded, affecting operational readiness. Personnel costs dominate the budget, leaving little room for modernisation. Force Employment sees a cut, which could reduce South Africa’s peacekeeping and border security effectiveness. Overall, the budget prioritises maintaining existing forces rather than upgrading them,” Wingrin stated.
With a lack of funding for new and upgraded equipment and systems to support SANDF troops, “the South African soldier must be severely disappointed by their Commander in Chief, as is every citizen concerned with the state of the SANDF,” Wingrin said. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
12 Mar 25. Philippines: Unrest risks will be moderately elevated as former president is set to face ICC trial. On 11 March, a plane carrying the former president, Rodrigo Duterte, left the capital Manila for The Hague (Netherlands). This comes after the police arrested Duterte under an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. The arrest was connected to Duterte’s anti-drug campaign from 2016 to 2022. Duterte is set to go on trial at the ICC in the coming months. Vice President Sara Duterte (Rodrigo’s daughter) has travelled to the Netherlands to assist with his legal preparations. While President Ferdinand Marcos Jr stated that Duterte’s arrest was ‘proper and correct’, (Sara) Duterte described her father’s arrest as ‘oppression and persecution’, underscoring a growing split between her and Marcos. On 11 March, around 1,000 Duterte supporters gathered at Rizal Park in Davao city (Davao region, Mindanao Island) to protest against his arrest. There was also a smaller demonstration in Cagayan de Oro (Northern Mindanao region). We assess that further protests are highly likely during Duterte’s trial. These are particularly likely in the south of the country, where he retains substantial public support, but also in Manila. The police will likely increase security around the EDSA Shrine in Quezon (Metro Manila). Most protests will likely pass off peacefully. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Mar 25. Pakistan: Likelihood of further casualties is elevated amid ongoing hostage rescue operation. Earlier on 12 March, Radio Pakistan, citing state sources, reported that the security forces had rescued 155 passengers, including women and children, and killed 27 militants after the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacked a Jaffar Express train traveling from Quetta (Balochistan province) to Peshawar (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. While the total number of casualties remains unclear, at least ten hostages have been killed, including the train driver and several security personnel. In addition, 37 people have been injured. The security operation to rescue the remaining hostages is ongoing. The hijacking of the train, which is the first of its kind by the BLA, reflects the growing security risks in Balochistan. Given state media reports that the BLA has placed suicide bombers close to the hostages at three different locations, there is a realistic possibility of further casualties in the coming hours. We assess that the risk of casualties will likely increase if the military intensifies its rescue attempts. Additionally, Pakistan Railways announced that all train services connecting Balochistan to both Sindh and Punjab provinces are suspended until the situation is under control. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Mar 25. South Sudan-Uganda: Special forces deployment underscores conflict, government stability risks. Earlier on 11 March, special forces from the Ugandan army (UPDF) deployed to Juba (South Sudan) to assist South Sudanese President Salva Kiir. It is currently unclear whether this deployment follows a request from Kiir; the mandate of the troops is also unknown. Nevertheless, the deployment likely reflects mounting concerns over Kiir’s personal security and threats to his regime from figures within the military (SSPDF) amid rising tensions and conflict risks. As such, it is likely the UPDF troops will act as de facto bodyguards. In the coming days, there is a realistic possibility the deployment will also lead to an additional crackdown against the allies of Vice President Riek Machar and his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – in Opposition (SPLM-IO). This would likely include arrests of SPLM-IO ministers and affiliated figures within the SSPDF, elevating conflict risks. We assess that any crackdown in Juba will likely lead to the erection of roadblocks, elevating movement and operational disruption risks while also increasing arbitrary detention risks and staff exposure to petty corruption. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Mar 25. Philippines: Arrest of former president will drive domestic unrest, political instability. Earlier on 11 March, the police arrested the former president, Rodrigo Duterte, upon his arrival at the capital Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL). The arrest was carried out under an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant in connection with Duterte’s anti-drug campaign from 2016 to 2022. Duterte was transported to the adjoining Villamor Airbase in Metro Manila. Supporters of the former president gathered at the airport and outside Villamor Airbase to protest against his detention; increased security is reportedly present in the area. His legal team will likely challenge the arrest warrant on the grounds that the Philippines withdrew from the ICC in 2019 and no longer falls under its jurisdiction. Duterte’s arrest will almost certainly intensify political divisions ahead of scheduled mid-term elections in May. It will also escalate the ongoing feud between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Vice President Sara Duterte (Rodrigo’s daughter). Pro-Duterte protests are likely in the coming weeks, as the former president maintains notable public support, including in Davao (Mindanao Island). We assess that heightened security measures to mitigate against the risk of protests turning violent are highly likely in major urban centres. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Mar 25. India and South Africa keen to deepen defence industry cooperation. India and South Africa have a lot to offer each other with regard to defence cooperation, and companies like Rheinmetall Denel Munition, Saab Grintek Defence, and Denel are all keen to either commence cooperation with India or strengthen existing ties. This was the gist of a panel discussion focussed on ‘opportunities and collaborative efforts for enhancing defence businesses between India and South Africa’ during the India-South Africa Business Conclave 2025 that was held on 10 March in Pretoria. Panel moderator Ricardo Teixeira, ProtectionWeb Editor, noted that defence cooperation between India and South Africa goes back many decades. Captain (Indian Navy) Atul Sapahia, India’s Defence Attache to South Africa, explained that South Africa and India in 2000 signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on defence cooperation, followed by an MoU on defence training, and then defence industrial cooperation. He said that over the years, the relationship has grown through events like naval Exercise Ibsamar (between India, South Africa, and Brazil), and through defence training under the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme (ITEC), which has seen more than 200 offices and other South African personnel train in India over the last two decades.
“In addition to exercises, training cooperation and defence industry cooperation, I would like to say this relationship is growing steadily. We recently witnessed the Aero India exhibition in which many South African companies participated,” Sapahia said. He added that during the Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) 2024 exhibition in Pretoria, eight public and two private Indian companies took part.
“Cooperation has been increasing over multiple domains and the future looks good,” he said, especially as both countries are part of the BRICS alliance.
Strong defence industrial cooperation can be seen most clearly through Saab Grintek Defence, which has for many years supplied its Integrated Defensive Aids Suite (IDAS) for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) helicopters. In February this year, Saab and HAL signed an MoU for Indian manufacture of Saab’s LWS-310 laser warning system for ground-based vehicles. Saab broke ground on its Indian factory last year and should have it up and running in a year’s time.
Dr Nivan Moodley, Vice President and Head of Business Development and Strategy at Saab Grintek Defence, explained that from a Saab perspective the company has had a very long relationship with the Indian military starting in the late 1990s. “From serial production to joint development, we’ve done maintenance transfer, and production transfer.”
He emphasised that Saab has not just supplied semi-knockdown kits, but provided a full capability to manufacture. Saab involvement has covered naval, maritime, and now land systems in what Moodley described as “a continuous good relationship.”
As Saab Grintek Defence is ramping up its capacity significantly, it cannot product enough of its technology locally, and will use its Indian supply chain not just for India but for Saab’s global customer base, Moodley said.
Rear Admiral (Ret) ‘Rusty’ Higgs, General Manager, Stakeholder Relations, Rheinmetall Denel Munition (RDM), elaborated on what a successful defence industrial partnership looks like in the RDM joint venture between Germany and South Africa. “In 2005, the South African government decided we needed international partners in our defence industry, especially munitions. In 2008 it decided to go into a joint venture with Rheinmetall and Denel. The agreement was signed in 2008 and that company is very successful today. RDM is the world leader in artillery and very involved in other munitions including mortars.”
“We employ 2 500 people directly. There are 1 500 companies in the supply chain, each employing 30 South Africans, giving 50-60 000 people in the supply chain,” Higgs said, adding that there are probably hundreds of thousands of indirect jobs created by RDM. He added that as India is a huge artillery user, RDM is keen to work with the country on this front.
Justice Tootla, Group Executive Commercial at Denel, said he saw many potential areas of collaboration with India. “We are a big believer in sharing knowledge, transfer of technology, and collaboration overall. India has great technology especially on the artillery side. I think we can do a lot more and can cooperate in the missiles and UAV space. We are very keen on transfer of technology and working together.”
Tootla emphasised that Denel is back in business after going through some difficult times. “The turnaround plan is working very well. We have a new executive team. We have realigned our business,” he explained, with key focus areas of artillery and ammunition, guided weapons, unmanned aerial vehicles, systems integration, and aircraft MRO services.
“We are repairing relationships. We went through a difficult time with customers, and banks,” Tootla said, but he believes “Denel is back. When we went to IDEX in February we picked up strongly that Denel is still needed in the world. We still have capabilities, intellectual properly.”
Tootla was excited about Denel’s future prospects, particularly with two recent major contracts in the missiles and artillery fields.
“We’re really capable of partnering with India and can manufacture some products in country,” he said. “We have not done much with India but we can do a whole not more going forward. From a Denel perspective we can do a lot more.”
Sapahia said that the Indian military went from being the world’s largest defence importer to being self-reliant, although this does not mean self-sufficient, as the country looks for partnerships, especially through its Strategic Partnerships model. “We are looking at partnerships, joint ventures, and increasing capacities for ourselves and the world.” He said that global conflicts have shown that no single country can be entirely self-sufficient. “You have to partner – there is no other way around.” A case in point highlighted by Sapahia is the HAL Light Combat Aircraft. The Indian Air Force has two squadrons in service, but wants to have over 100 aircraft in the next decade, but needs partners to increase production. “We need to partner to shore up capacity.” On the naval side, Higgs said there is huge scope for collaboration and cooperation between India and South Africa, particularly shipbuilding and repair. He said the Indian Navy has explored having its vessels operating off the East African coast maintained by shipyards in South Africa. Sapahia said Goa Shipyard Ltd and Kenya Shipyard Limited already have a cooperation agreement in place, and with South Africa, “we would like to enter into an MoU where your ships can go into our dockyards and our ships can undergo emergency repair in South African dockyards when the situation arises.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
10 Mar 25. North Korea fires missiles after slamming US-South Korea drills
- Summary
- South Korea military confirms missile launch towards Yellow Sea
- North Korea condemns US-South Korea drills as provocative
North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles on Monday, hours after condemning the South Korean and U.S. militaries for launching drills that Pyongyang called a “dangerous provocative act” that risked accidentally sparking a confrontation. South Korea’s military said the missiles were fired from North Korea’s western region toward the Yellow Sea. The launch was the first reported ballistic missile test since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January. The allies’ annual Freedom Shield drills are scheduled to run until March 20, although live-fire exercises remain suspended after South Korean jets mistakenly dropped bombs on a civilian town near the border last week, injuring 29. North Korea has typically called for U.S.-South Korea joint exercises to be called off, branding them a prelude to an invasion. The South Korean military has said the joint drills aim to strengthen the readiness of the alliance for threats such as North Korea. (Source: Reuters)
07 Mar 25. Oceania-China: Chinese naval activity in Pacific will elevate regional tensions. On 6 March, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) reported that a Chinese naval task group was located 630 nautical miles (1,166km) to the north-west of Perth (Western Australia state). The flotilla sailed as close as 170 nautical miles (315km) to Australia’s shores on 4 March as part of the first known circumnavigation of Australia by a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) task group. The ships reportedly sailed near HMAS Stirling naval base (Western Australia), where a US Navy attack submarine has been docked since February, raising concerns of possible intelligence-gathering efforts. This follows China’s live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea last month. On 6 March, Director-General of the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) Andrew Hampton also warned of security threats posed by China’s growing regional influence in the Pacific. We assess that China’s increased force projection in the Pacific will drive regional tensions and reinforce military co-operation between Western-aligned regional partners. (Source: Sibylline)
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