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13 Feb 25. South Africa calls for collaborative global defence innovation at Defence Ministers’ Conclave. At the recent Defence Ministers’ Conclave at Aerospace India, South Africa’s Deputy Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, Bantu Holomisa delivered a compelling address calling for global cooperation in advancing military technology, economic development, and humanitarian response efforts.
Representing Defence Minister Angie Motshekga, the Deputy Minister highlighted South Africa’s historical ties with India, particularly acknowledging India’s past training support for uMkhonto weSizwe soldiers and its continued collaboration with the South African National Defence Force (SANDF).
The Deputy Minister stressed that the world stands at a pivotal moment in global defence, with rapid advancements in aerospace and military technology reshaping modern warfare. South Africa’s military legacy in aerospace and unmanned aerial systems positions the country to contribute significantly to the global push for innovation. These technological advancements are not just military imperatives but also crucial for economic growth, job creation, and national technological sovereignty, he said.
The speech underscored the necessity of partnerships through platforms like BRICS and the African Union (AU). Such regional alliances, the Minister stressed, are vital for building a multipolar global defence paradigm rooted in equity and shared development. The Deputy Minister advocated for accelerated technological transfers among BRICS partners to strengthen the resilience of defence industries and safeguard shared resources.
Speaking on the rise of global instability, the Deputy Minister called for joint military exercises that extend beyond combat readiness to include humanitarian operations, climate change preparedness, and disaster relief. South Africa’s history of assisting neighbouring countries like Malawi and Mozambique during natural disasters exemplifies the importance of coordinated response efforts to protect lives and livelihoods.
The Deputy Minister also highlighted the evolving nature of global security threats, including terrorism, cyber warfare, and geopolitical tensions, and stressed the need for collective solutions through peacekeeping missions and counter-terrorism operations. South Africa’s steadfast commitment to global peace and security initiatives remains central to its defence strategy, he said.
Holomisa also emphasised the critical role of youth in the sustainability of defence industries and future security strategies. South Africa is committed to enhancing youth participation through training, mentorship, and career development programs to build a future-ready defence sector, he told delegates.
Further, the Deputy Minister called for renewed commitments to partnerships, innovation, and sustainable growth, positioning South Africa as a ready and willing collaborator in building a secure, technologically advanced, and economically strong global defence framework. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
13 Feb 25. Russia: Weakened security capabilities will encourage terror plots in coming months. Earlier on 13 February, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) reported that it had thwarted an Islamist terror plot in Pskov oblast. The agency stated the would-be perpetrators were citizens of an unspecified Central Asian state and members of an unnamed international terrorist organisation. According to the FSB, the individuals intended to detonate a homemade IED at a railway station in the regional capital Pskov. In March 2024, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) claimed responsibility for a large-scale terror attack in Moscow oblast. We assess that IS-K was likely behind the foiled terror plot in Pskov. As the FSB inferred that it had prevented the attack at a relatively advanced stage, the development underscores the sustained threats posed by international terrorism to Russia (see Sibylline Special Report – 23 April 2024). Ultimately, would-be domestic terrorists and/or those from Central Asia will likely continue to attempt to exploit strained Russian security capabilities as a result of the war in Ukraine in the short-to-medium term. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Feb 25. Uzbekistan: Foiled assassination attempt does not indicate wider risks facing government stability. On 12 February, the authorities reported that a military court sentenced ten defendants to severe prison sentences for the attempted assassination of Komil Allamjonov, a former presidential press secretary. The failed attack reportedly occurred in October 2024 and involved, among others, a senior security services officer and a high-ranking official from the interior ministry. A wave of resignations within the country’s law enforcement agencies followed the detention of the suspects. The military court did not disclose the motives of the plot. However, an independent investigation revealed links between the suspects and a business lobbying entity associated with Otabek Umarov, the son-in-law of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Meanwhile, weeks before the failed assassination, Allamjonov, who enjoys close ties with the presidential family, announced his resignation and his intention to enter the private sector. We assess that the case was likely triggered by factional infighting, possibly within the presidential clan, related to competing business interests. Nevertheless, the incident does not indicate broader risks to government stability. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Feb 25. Afghanistan: Bomb attack underscores elevated security, bystander risks in capital Kabul. Earlier on 13 February, a suicide bomber killed one person and wounded at least three others outside the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing in the capital Kabul’s Police District 9. The Taliban claimed that the assailant attempted to enter the building before a security force member shot him, triggering the explosion. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. However, this follows an Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K)-claimed suicide bomb attack on 11 February, which killed at least five people outside a bank in Kunduz city (Kunduz province). That explosion reportedly occurred before the perpetrator reached the target. We assess that IS-K is likely responsible for the latest attack, given that it is the most active militant group in the country and frequently targets Taliban and government buildings. In December 2024, IS-K claimed a suicide bomb attack that killed a Taliban minister in the capital. The two recent attacks highlight the elevated safety risks in Kabul and the ongoing challenges facing the Taliban in maintaining control over the security environment. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Feb 25. Sudan: Paramilitary attacks on displacement camp point to raised threats to NGO staff in North Darfur. On 11 February, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began attacking the Zamzam refugee camp, which is located approximately ten miles (17km) to the south of El Fashir (North Darfur state). RSF militants entered the camp and shot numerous civilians, looted aid stores and started several fires. Attacks are ongoing at the time of writing, though casualty figures remain unclear. In the coming days, RSF attacks will almost certainly continue, driving critical threats to life for civilians and NGO staff in the vicinity. The state’s governor has called for civilians to arm themselves and defend the camp. A civilian-led counter-offensive is highly unlikely to repel the RSF’s advance; rather, it will exacerbate bystander risks and likely trigger reprisal attacks along ethno-religious lines. The RSF possibly intends to establish positions within the camp to facilitate a renewed offensive on El Fashir, which has been under siege by the RSF since April 2024. Intensifying clashes around the city will almost certainly increase threats to NGO staff and disrupt aid distribution efforts in the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Feb 25. Austria: Possible collapse of coalition talks underscores heightened government stability risks. Government coalition negotiations between the hard-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP) are possibly close to collapsing. According to the outlet Der Standard, the FPÖ submitted a final proposal on 11 February regarding the distribution of ministries, in which the party insists on controlling the interior and finance portfolios. Earlier on 12 February, the ÖVP reportedly rejected the proposal, insisting that control of the interior ministry should be divided. FPÖ control of the interior ministry would raise the risk of reduced intelligence sharing between Austria and its Western partners given the party’s open links to Russia. Other areas of dispute include immigration and sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the liberal Neos have both indicated they are open to re-entering negotiations with the ÖVP, despite talks previously failing. We assess that the protracted negotiations indicate that once a government if formed, it will likely be susceptible to in-fighting and possibly even a breakdown. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Feb 25. Lamola dismisses proposal to withdraw SA troops from the DRC. International Relations and Cooperation Minister, Ronald Lamola, has dismissed the proposal to withdraw South African soldiers from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), stating that this action would be worse than surrender.
On Monday 10 February, Lamola addressed Parliament during an urgent debate regarding the deployment of South African troops to the DRC.
This special session was called following the deaths of 14 South African National Defence Force (SANDF) soldiers in the eastern part of the DRC.
“Abrupt withdrawal as called upon by some in the House is not even a tactical retreat, it is even worse than a surrender as with the number [of] armed groups in the area, there lies ambush,” he said.
Lamola stated that the South African government welcomes comments of the leaders of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the East Africa Community (EAC), who called for a ceasefire and dialogue in the DRC over the weekend.
This follows a SADC – EAC Heads of State and Government Summit on the security situation in the eastern DRC, in which President Cyril Ramaphosa also took part.
The Minister believes that the recent summit of SADC and the EAC has clarified the way forward regarding the conflict in the eastern DRC.
“Recognising that a peaceful Africa is crucial for the economic and social development of the continent, we participated in a lot of peace missions in the continent, in Sudan, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan, and so on to silence the guns in line with vision 2063.
“Our 2001 peace efforts with the Sun City talks led to a new constitutional order and almost two decades of peace in the DRC. We have been involved in State-building and peace-building efforts,” he told Members of Parliament (MPs).
The SANDF soldiers are part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC), which aims to help restore peace, security, and stability in Africa’s second-largest country. South Africa also has troops serving with the United Nations mission in the DRC (Monusco).
According to Lamola, the DRC is more peaceful now than before, and the conflict is in an isolated region.
“To suggest that we should not resolve conflicts in Africa, regardless of their origin, is simplistic and profoundly naïve. Such a stance reflects a disturbing ignorance of the complexities and implications of neglecting these critical situations.
“A failure to act is not merely a passive choice; it actively undermines our peace and security and economic prosperity as no country is an island. Our nation will not be at peace if our regional community suffers in turmoil. We are also one of the leading countries in the continent in receiving refugees fleeing conflict zones.”
He emphasised the importance of South Africa’s role in maintaining peace and economic stability, not only for its benefit but also for the prosperity of neighbouring countries on the continent.
The Minister also took time to honour the country’s fallen heroes, as well as members of the Malawian, Tanzanian, and the Uruguayan defence forces.
“It is not a tragedy that has only befallen our defence force, it has befallen both the United Nations mission and the SADC mission,” he added.
M23 hits back at Lamola
M23 rebels and the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) in a statement on 11 February welcomed the recent EAC/SADC summit and “fully agrees that only dialogue and political solutions can resolve the multifaceted crisis in our country. In this spirit, the AFC/M23 declared a unilateral ceasefire on 4 February, to create a conducive environment for dialogue,” and to address root causes of the conflict.
“The AFC/M23 has engaged in broad consultations with like-minded political and social forces to steer the expected dialogue toward meaningful governance reforms. However, the AFC/M23 is surprised by the statements made on 10 February 2025 by the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation of South Africa. The Minister attempted to mislead both local and international audiences regarding the situation in Goma. Goma was not taken over by 150 armed groups.
“Rather, Goma and its surrounding areas have been liberated and secured by the AFC/M23. The implementation of the Dar es Salaam Summit resolutions concerning Goma must be discussed and agreed upon with the AFC/M23. At present, technical issues (including unexploded ordnance and damage to the runway) are preventing the reopening of Goma International Airport. However, road and lake transportation remain operational. The SAMIDRC forces are therefore requested to use the available routes for their withdrawal,” the statement said.
It added that the Kinshasa regime’s insistence on a military approach is only prolonging the crisis. “We expect Burundi and SADC member states to contribute to peace in the DRC by ensuring the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of SAMIDRC and BNDF [Burund National Defence Force] forces. We call upon these countries to honour and uphold the spirit of Dar es Salaam.”
Troop reinforcement
South Africa has sent additional troops to the DRC region, with multiple chartered flights being recorded taking off from Pretoria over the last week. It is not clear how they will assist trapped soldiers from being released from M23-controlled areas in Sake and Goma.
African Defence Review Director Darren Olivier said an abrupt withdrawal of South African troops would be extremely damaging, “but what alternative option does SA realistically have? Its troops are effectively held hostage by M23 and Rwanda, they’re no longer in the fight and an intervention to take back Sake and Goma to rescue them isn’t feasible.”
“The picture changes if there’s sufficient international pressure to force M23 out of Goma and Sake, allowing for a reopening of the airport and a reset and repositioning of sorts. But we’ve seen no sign of that happening at either the UNSC meeting or the SADC-EAC summit. Without international support for a fresh intervention or at least a negotiated removal or M23 from Goma and the surrounding area, SAMIDRC is over. Negotiating the best possible withdrawal makes sense. But SA should not withdraw the ~1200 troops it has in the DRC with Monusco,” Olivier stated.
“There is no benevolence in illegally taking over and occupying cities, attacking and surrounding the multinational peace enforcement missions there, and then holding them hostage without providing clear, guaranteed, and safe means for them to leave with their equipment,” Olivier said in reference to the SANDF and SAMIDRC troops trapped in Goma and Sake.
Fallen soldiers due home on Thursday
Defence and Military Veterans Minister Angie Motshekga has meanwhile confirmed that the return of the remains of the 14 fallen SANDF troops is currently delayed due to medical processing in Uganda.
The Minister stated that the soldiers are now expected to return to South Africa by Thursday, following the necessary procedures.
“I must say, from the latest reports, yes, indeed, the delay is disheartening,” she told Parliament. “From the reports we are receiving, they are still in Uganda, undergoing all the medical processes, and we also are pressing very hard to get our deceased.”
The Minister announced that the soldiers would be laid to rest with full military honours.
The SANDF on Tuesday confirmed that the mortal remains handing over and memorial ceremony will take place at Air Force Mobile Deployment Wing (formerly Air Force Base Swartkop) on Thursday 13 February. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
12 Feb 25. Sudan: Continued repression of new civilian group will likely drive unrest, risk of arrest. On 11 February, the former prime minister, Abdallah Hamdok, announced the formation of a new civilian coalition called the Civil Democratic Alliance of the Forces of the Revolution – Resistance (Smoud). This follows the dissolution of the Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces (Taqaddum) over proposals to form a government in exile, particularly among factions based in the Darfur region. Smoud’s members argue that this decision would undermine their neutrality. Regardless of the decision, it is likely that General Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), will likely continue to claim these civilian factions support the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and so block them from his prospective transitional government. With Smoud comprising several of the key resistance groups which led protests between 2018 and the outbreak of the war in 2023, we assess their exclusion will drive the threat of unrest in SAF-controlled areas. In response, the SAF will likely escalate its repression of civil society, increasing the risk of arbitrary arrests and disappearances facing local NGO staff, including in Port Sudan (Red Sea state). (Source: Sibylline)
12 Feb 25. Military spending in Russia, whose economy President Vladimir Putin has put on a war footing, now outstrips all of Europe’s defence budgets combined, according to a study. Total Russian defence spending soared last year by 42 per cent in real terms to Rbs13.1tn. That is equivalent to $462bn on the basis of purchasing power parity, which adjusts for what currencies can buy in their home countries. European defence budgets by comparison, including the UK and EU member states, rose by almost 12 per last year to $457bn — slightly less than Moscow’s spending, the International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank said on Wednesday. The IISS’s “Military Balance”, an annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence spending, lays bare some of the security challenges facing Europe should the US cut back its support for Ukraine and European defence. US President Donald Trump, who has vowed to bring a swift end to Russia’s war against Ukraine, has said his administration had held “very serious” talks with Moscow and has complained that the US is spending too much on the conflict and European security as a whole. Senior advisers in Trump’s administration, including vice-president JD Vance and special envoy Keith Kellogg, are expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European counterparts at the Munich Security Conference this week. One metric that Trump has repeatedly cited is the need for Europe to pay more for its defence, including support for Ukraine. US aid to Ukraine has so far totalled about €88bn, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy think-tank, which is almost a third less than Europe’s €125bn total. Trump has also said Europe should spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence, compared with its current average of about 1.7 per cent. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte has, meanwhile, said European defence spending needs to rise to 3 per cent. Either level would see Europe far outstrip Russian defence spending. The IISS forecast that this year total Russian defence spending — including so-called voluntary payments by regional authorities and companies — would increase by 13.7 per cent to reach Rbs15.6tn, equivalent to 7.5 per cent of GDP or almost 40 per cent of Russian federal spending. Although this was taking a toll on the economy, IISS said: “Russia can still bear the costs of war.” By contrast, if Europe increased defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP, that would equate to an extra $250bn, according to IISS. If it rose to 5 per cent of GDP, defence spending would rise by about $800bn — almost twice Russia’s current level of spending. However, European defence spending had already grown by a half since 2014, IISS said, and “fiscal constraints may dampen [further] growth”. Germany’s defence budget rose by 23 per cent to reach $86bn — topping the UK’s defence budget of $81bn for the first time in more than three decades. Recommended Kyriakos Mitsotakis Europe must spend more on its own defence However, that was due to one-off payments from a special German defence fund. Sustaining that level was “subject to a higher degree of uncertainty,” IISS said. Germany’s commitment to spend 2 per cent of GDP by 2029, compared with 1.8 per cent now, was “also uncertain”, it added. The UK, traditionally Nato’s second-biggest defence spender after the US, currently spends 2.3 per cent of GDP on defence. The government has said it is committed to boosting that to 2.5 per cent, although it has not said when. (Source: FT.com)
11 Feb 25. Afghanistan: Suicide bomb attack underscores heightened safety, bystander risks. Earlier on 11 February, a suicide bomber killed five people and wounded seven others outside a Kabul Bank branch in Kunduz city (Kunduz province) in northern Afghanistan. Among those killed were civilians and Taliban members. The attack comes after the Taliban last month instructed military and security personnel to avoid banks for salary collection and instead use designated locations. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. While bombings have declined in frequency since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 (as the Taliban were previously the main perpetrators), rival militant groups, particularly Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), have continued to target the Taliban. In March 2024, IS-K claimed a suicide bomb attack that killed 21 people outside a bank in Kandahar (Kandahar province). We assess that the risk of attacks by rival militant groups targeting the Taliban will likely persist in the short-to-medium term elevating security risks for bystanders and further challenging Afghanistan’s fragile security environment. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Feb 25. Philippines: Mid-term elections campaign begins; unrest, political violence risks are elevated. Earlier on 11 February, the official campaign period of the mid-term elections commenced. On 12 May, voters will elect 12 out of the 24 Senate seats and all 317 lawmakers in the House of Representatives. The polls will be a litmus test of the respective popularities of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte, whose long-running feud escalated after lawmakers impeached Duterte on 5 February. Marcos cannot contest a second term in the 2028 presidential election. A strong result for Duterte’s political allies at the mid-term elections would boost her chances of succeeding Marcos and surviving an impeachment trial in July, in which the Senate, which resumes session in June, will vote on whether to convict her. Ahead of the polls, political rallies are highly likely in major cities and will almost certainly increase in turnout and frequency from mid-March. There is also a latent risk of political violence, with the police reportedly already investigating 12 incidents of ‘election-related’ violence, including the shooting of a candidate. We assess that an elevated security force presence is likely at political rallies. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Feb 25. DR Congo deployment disaster sees call for judicial inquiry. An opinion different to the by now customary call for dismissals and resignations regarding the handling of South Africa’s involvement in a regional bloc peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) came from Freedom Front Plus (FF+) leader Pieter Groenewald.
He wants SA National Defence Force (SANDF) Commander-in-Chief President Cyril Ramaphosa to set up a judicial commission of inquiry.
Speaking during yesterday’s (Monday, 10 February’s) National Assembly (NA) debate titled “The recent casualties incurred by the SANDF in DRC and their implications for the [national] defence force”, Groenewald said the inquiry should, among others, investigate whether “certain generals insisted that the President should be informed of the defence force’s shortcomings and consequent inability to proceed with the mission”. Other generals apparently withheld “important information” on SANDF shortcomings and its inability “proceed with the mission”.
He called the recent deaths of 14 South African soldiers in and around Goma as part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) a repetition of the 2013 Battle of Bangui that left 15 South African soldiers dead. Groenewald noted in-depth analysis and investigation is “always done” by the military in the wake of events such as the Central African Republic (CAR) Bangui confrontation with Seleka rebels and prior to that the 1998 Operation Boleas in Lesotho – also an SADC mission.
On specifically Bangui, the former Commando officer told Members of Parliament (MPs) “12 years later history repeated itself”. He maintains “senior generals are desperately trying to hide the SANDF’s ineptitude and decline from the President”.
Groenewald, as did MPs from other parties, pointed to the lack of logistic and air support as well as outdated weaponry as contributing factors to the inability of the South African contingent to hold off and overcome the M23 (Mouvement du 23 Mars) rebels.
ACDP (African Christian Democratic Party) public representative Steve Swart told the NA the SANDF budget allocation is insufficient for the force to fulfil its mandate.
“We shouldn’t deploy our troops in peacekeeping roles without the necessary resources – let alone in this more offensive peace enforcement role to ‘neutralise negative forces and armed groups… (as set out in the Status of Forces Agreement [for SAMIDRC]). This mandate empowers offensive operations, hardly reconcilable with any peacekeeping mission.”
On equipment and adequate resources Swart said: “Properly equipped means air support – Rooivalk helicopters, medical facilities, logistic capabilities, radar defence systems, artillery, drones and heavy mortars. These were sadly lacking and contributed to the tragic loss of lives in battle”.
He touched on the Groenewald allegation of general officers warning against the DRC deployment. They, according to Swart, cited “significant operational risks, notably the lack of air support, but their concerns were ignored”.
Democratic Alliance (DA) point man on defence and military veterans Chris Hattingh was scathing in his speaking opportunity saying the South African soldiers were “thrown into battle ill-equipped, underfunded and without critical support in one of the world’s longest running and most brutal conflicts”.
“They fought alongside DRC armed forces (FARDC – Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo) against M23 rebels, yet their own government sent them into war unprepared. The lack of accountability for these operational failures speaks to wider issues of both governance and leadership. The President and the Minister must be held accountable for failing to prioritise the safety and effectiveness of our troops.”
Hattingh is adamant South Africa needs to withdraw from the DRC “immediately and Minister Motshekga must go – voluntarily or otherwise.”
Another who questioned the deployment decision was DA deputy defence and military veterans number two, Maliyakhe Shelembe.
He asked: “How can the President make a commitment to the African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN) to deploy our poorly armed soldiers, ostensibly for peacekeeping purposes, full knowing that the SANDF is not combat read to deal with armed M23 rebels?” Answering his own question Shelembe said Ramaphosa was ill-advised or “does not care”.
“He sent our brave soldiers into a hot conflict, fully knowing that South African lives will be at risk – he should be ashamed of himself. It is the responsibility of the President and the Minister of Defence to ensure that our soldiers are combat ready before they are deployed anywhere, especially in areas like the DRC where heavily armed M23 rebels have long been on the advance.
“The DA finds it bizarre that the President and the Minister of Defence decided to continue with the deployment despite serious challenges in the Department of Defence (DoD),” was how Shelembe finished his speaking term in the National Assembly’s temporary home – The Dome on the Nieuwmeester parking ground opposite the Parliamentary precinct. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
11 Feb 25. The IISS Military Balance.
KEY FINDINGS:
• Global military spending up 7.4% in 2024, rising to US$2.46 trillion.
• European defence spending is nominally 50% higher than in 2014, while Germany now holds the highest European defence budget in NATO.
• Evidence suggests that Ukraine has suffered a more serious drain on its personnel than Russia, with many ground units under-strength, while Russia – despite continuing to suffer high rates of losses in personnel and equipment – is able to draw on Cold War stocks and augment its forces with assistance from North Korea and Iran.
• China’s modernisation of the PLA has focussed on three key themes – anti-corruption, reorganisation and reform.
In its 66th edition, the IISS Military Balance examines an increasingly complex international security environment and traces how countries are not only boosting spending and deploying new capabilities but developing new priorities for investment.
UKRAINE/RUSSIA CONFLICT
The IISS Military Balance examines the latest developments in Ukraine, where Russia is estimated to have lost significant numbers of men and equipment. IISS estimates that Russia lost a further 1,400 main battle tanks in 2024. Both sides are suffering from high attrition rates, but while Russia can currently sustain the manning of its forces, evidence suggests that Ukraine, which has generally kept its casualty figures secret, has suffered a serious drain on its personnel and faces challenges in force management – with many ground units under-strength.
It is likely that personnel losses will rise for Russia if they retain a similar offensive posture, because of a relative scarcity of armoured fighting vehicles – even without Russia’s ambitious force-expansion plans.
Pressures on the Russian military continue to build. Its Black Sea Fleet appears somewhat constrained, with Ukraine establishing a de facto maritime corridor utilising the territorial waters of nearby states. But low-cost glide bombs launched from well-beyond the reach of Ukrainian defences remain Russia’s most potent threat from the air. Among Russia’s most potent attacks are those that involve multiple types of missiles, drones and decoys, and which attempt to confuse and overwhelm air defences and exhaust munitions stocks.
Closer cooperation with Iran and North Korea continues. 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to bolster Russian forces, while Iranian production of drones and ballistic missiles for Russia has been increased.
Ukraine has received more advanced Western equipment, though not always in the volume or with the freedom of action that Kyiv would prefer. While an initial European Union target to deliver one m 155-millimetre shells to Ukraine within a year was missed, production capacity was certainly increasing and the EU estimated member states would reach two m shells per year by the end of 2025.
Russia’s military expenditure has increased by 41.9% to take its budget to the equivalent of 6.7% of GDP, which is higher than total European defence spending in purchasing-power-parity terms. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to quantify overall spending with regions and corporations funding travel sponsorship, sign-up inducements funded from outside the defence budget and families expected to supply basic equipment and provisions.
But Russia’s economy remains resilient, as non-energy revenues make it possible to increase spending while maintaining a modest budget deficit and the central bank actively manages wider economic risks, allowing elevated levels of defence spending to continue.
MILITARY SPENDING
Overall, global defence spending has increased by 7.4% in real terms in 2024, with all regions bar Sub-Saharan Africa on the rise.
In Europe, Germany’s 23.2% rise means that only the United States has a bigger national defence budget within NATO. In real terms, European defence spending is nominally 50% higher compared to 2014, with much of the increase targeting modernization and recapitalization, but the overall picture is more complicated. With budget pressures in most European countries continuing, sustaining increased spending is likely to be challenging. The burden is not evenly shared, with some NATO countries spending above 3% of GDP, while others remain below the 2% baseline.
IISS data shows that current NATO defence spending stands at US$1.44 trillion, with Europe’s US$442 bn representing less than one-third of the total. A commitment of 3% across European members of the Alliance would see that figure grow by over US$250bn and almost US$750bn if 5% were achieved. However, such figures are unachievable at this time, with some countries already using off-budget instruments to bolster budgets.
While the United States budget remains at 3.39% of GDP, limitations are evident in its defence-industrial base, with investment taking place under the National Defense Industrial Strategy to increase capacity and train the workforce of the future.
MODERNISATION OF CHINA’S PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY (PLA)
China’s armed forces are continuing to modernise under three specific themes – anti-corruption, reorganisation and reform.
Significant efforts to root out corruption within the PLA appear to be ongoing and major efforts to reorganise the PLA are also taking shape, with four services and four arms established. While President Xi Jinping has even closer oversight, it also suggests that the PLA is making progress towards building an ‘intelligentised’ military.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is also deepening what it terms ‘Military-Civil Fusion’, simplifying procurement across both military and civilian sectors and improving R&D, while upgrading joint-operations capabilities across the PLA. An uplift in spending by 7% sees China’s budget of around US$235bn make up 44% of total spending in Asia.
New capabilities are emerging in many areas, with new aircraft designs breaking cover and a continued rollout of J-20 multirole aircraft. A third aircraft-carrier, the Fujian, has commenced sea trials and a fourth is believed to be under construction. Two new long-range fire-support brigades have been formed.
11 Feb 25. Battle of Manila Foreshadowed Future Urban Warfare, Provided Lessons Learned. The Battle of Manila in the Philippines, which took place 80 years ago, from Feb. 3, 1945, to March 3, 1945, is widely considered to be one of the most destructive urban battles ever fought in terms of lives lost, with near-total destruction of the capital.
Some have referred to the Battle of Manila as “the Stalingrad of Asia,” Stalingrad being a large city in the Soviet Union that was the site of protracted fighting between the Red Army and troops of Nazi Germany earlier in World War II.
The day after the Dec. 7, 1941, attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, the Japanese attacked the Philippines, which was a U.S. territory.
At the time, Army Gen. Douglas MacArthur was the commander of U.S. Army Forces in the Far East. MacArthur and his forces in the Philippines were defeated, and in March 1942, he escaped to Australia, promising to return to the Philippines.
The Battle of Manila and other battles in the Philippines fulfilled MacArthur’s promise, albeit at the cost of 1,010 U.S. soldiers and countless Filipino civilians who were killed in the Battle of Manila alone.
The Battle of Manila provided valuable tactical lessons for future urban warfare, such as the battles of Seoul, Hue City, Baghdad and Fallujah.
The Japanese defense of the city included turning buildings into fortresses and integrating obstacles to disrupt and channel U.S. forces into kill zones. The monthlong battle demonstrated what a determined, well-prepared and well-entrenched enemy force can accomplish in an urban environment despite being outnumbered more than two to one.
The U.S. strategy took advantage of combined arms warfare, whereby tanks and artillery used direct fire at close range to breach structures. Sappers carrying explosives and infantrymen armed with flamethrowers, grenades, bazookas and other small arms assisted in the advance.
U.S. soldiers quickly learned to limit their exposure in open areas, moving from building to building rather than down the streets. Upon entering buildings, flamethrowers and small-arms fire were employed to clear the structure.
In such close quarters of fighting, fratricide quickly became a concern for U.S. forces operating in chaos, as there was no well-defined forward edge of the battle area, as there would have been in non-urban combat areas.
The battle also highlighted the danger to civilians caught in the path of the fighting. It is estimated that over 100,000 Filipino civilians were killed during the battle.
The following year, on July 4, the Philippines gained their independence. Today, the Philippines and Japan are close U.S. allies. (Source: U.S. DoD)
10 Feb 25. Cook Islands-China: Bilateral agreement will likely elevate regional tensions. On 7 February, Prime Minister Mark Brown departed for a visit to China from 10 to 14 February. Brown is set to sign a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ agreement with Beijing. The Cook Islands are a self-governing country in ‘free association’ with New Zealand. On 9 February, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters of New Zealand stated that Brown’s ‘lack of consultation’ with Auckland over the deal was of ‘significant concern’. His remarks come amid heightened bilateral tensions, including over a proposal for a separate Cook Islands passport. Brown has indicated that the deal with China does not involve security co-operation but will cover deep-sea mining, renewable energy, trade and tourism. Further co-operation with China will likely boost socio-economic health in the Cook Islands. We assess that the bilateral partnership deal highlights China’s growing influence in the Pacific, a region where Beijing has deepened ties with Kiribati and the Solomon Islands, driving tensions with Australia, New Zealand and the US. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Feb 25. South Korea: Unrest risks remain elevated as president’s impeachment trial nears conclusion. On 11 and 13 February, South Korea’s Constitutional Court will hold its seventh and eighth hearings respectively in President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment trial. The National Assembly (NA) voted to impeach Yoon on 14 December, following his short-lived imposition of martial law earlier that month. The Constitutional Court has until 12 June to either confirm the impeachment or return Yoon to office. Earlier on 10 February, the court announced that ‘no additional hearings are planned’ beyond this week. It will reportedly issue a verdict by mid-March. If Yoon’s impeachment is upheld, a presidential election would have to take place within 60 days. Additionally, Yoon’s criminal trial on insurrection charges is scheduled to begin on 20 February. We assess that pro- and anti-Yoon protesters will likely gather outside court buildings in the capital Seoul and in city centres over the coming weeks, particularly on court hearing days. Most demonstrations will likely pass off peacefully. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Feb 25. Mali: Jihadist attack highlights significant risks of ambush, threats to staff. On 9 February, the military government confirmed that unidentified jihadist militants had killed 25 civilians in an attack on a convoy near Kobe (Gao province) on 7 February. By contrast, locals claim militants killed at least 56 individuals, including numerous civilians employed at the N’Tahaka gold mine (Gao). Militants ambushed the civilian convoy and its military escort after it stopped at a security checkpoint on RN-17, highlighting critical threats to life during overland movement in eastern Mali. Although no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, it was almost certainly conducted by the al-Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), both of which are active in the Gao region. In the coming months, jihadist militants will almost certainly continue conducting attacks targeting civilian convoys, particularly stationary vehicles, sustaining significant attack and kidnap-for-ransom risks for staff engaged in the Goa region. We assess that military escorts are highly unlikely to deter attacks, with risks of crossfire compounding threats to staff during overland movement. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Feb 25. Why no word on defence Mr President? In his State of The Nation Address on Thursday President Cyril Ramaphosa outlined his roadmap for 2025.
The President detailed the projects which would receive priority over the next 12 months to meet what he referred to as “our most urgent task is to grow our economy so that we can create jobs, reduce poverty and improve the lives of all South Africans”.
Conspicuous by its absence once again was detail on defence spending and strengthening our military.
At the South African Aerospace, Maritime and Defence Industries Association (AMD) we believe that revitalising the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) could play a key role in helping government meet some of the goals it has set.
The defence industry represents increased opportunity for our economy and has the potential to contribute approximately 3.5% to our GDP, which would make a meaningful contribution toward addressing the country’s socio-economic challenges.
A world-class defence industry
South Africa’s defence industry produces world class defence and security products and solutions for governments around the world.
Approximately 95% of the armaments and equipment produced locally are shipped to global markets, contributing significantly to their ability to protect and defend their countries against internal and external threats.
These products play a crucial role in global defence efforts, yet our own military remains underfunded and increasingly vulnerable. Something which has been highlighted by recent events in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Midway through last year there were positive signs coming from government when it came to defence.
In July the Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans released a statement saying it would prioritise funding of the SANDF. The committee said it believed that securing proper funding for the SANDF was of utmost urgency and expressed concern that its deployment, specifically as part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC remained unfunded.
Then in her budget speech Defence and Military Veterans Minister Angie Motshekga emphasised the department’s commitment to engaging Treasury on capital funding, repairing critical equipment, and investing in evolving technologies. This was an encouraging development—but little progress has followed.
Defence investment as an economic driver
The President rightfully emphasised transformation, youth unemployment and job creation as national priorities. A strong local defence manufacturing sector could contribute significantly to meeting some of the goals he set out.
A robust local defence manufacturing capability will bolster our overall defence capabilities, provide opportunities for job creation, skills development and advancement of our technological abilities.
In addition, increased spending will mean new equipment, better training for our soldiers and the attraction of new talent, especially our youth. The defence sector offers employment opportunities including doctors, engineers, lawyers, which would help in addressing the high unemployment rate especially in this group.
Rethinking defence funding
Despite incremental budget increases—R51.8 bn for 2024/25, rising to R56.2 bn in 2026/27— the SANDF remains severely underfunded. With defence spending at just 0.7% of GDP, well below the international norm of 2%, analysts have warned in the past that our military is increasingly unable to meet its mandate.
With socio-economic challenges placing strain on public funds, South Africa must explore alternative funding models. A public-private partnership (PPP)—a globally proven approach—could provide relief by allowing private companies to finance and develop military systems while the government pays over an extended period. This model fosters innovation, efficiency, and long-term sustainability.
It will be interesting to see if the finance minister Enoch Godongwana deals with defence spending in his Budget Speech later this month. As the most industrialised nation in Africa and the current President of the G20 our role on the continent and globally is in sharp focus. This increased scrutiny coupled with the potential for economic growth in the defence sector might just raise the profile of South Africa’s military in fiscal discussions in the coming months. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
10 Feb 25. Sudanese Army Retakes Key Sites in Khartoum in Major Offensive Against RSF. Sudan’s military reportedly gained control of significant areas of the city’s capital Khartoum as it continued its offensive against its rival, paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
According to a BBC report, residents in Khartoum reported intense clashes have persisted as the army advances, with heavy artillery fire and airstrikes targeting RSF positions. The report claims that key sites retaken by the army this week include the mint, where money is printed.
The Sudanese army’s advances in recent weeks have been some of its most significant since the war began. On Saturday, Sudan’s military announced that it had also regained control of the district of Kafouri in Khartoum North.
Also known as Bahri, Kafouri is a wealthy district in Khartoum North that had served as an RSF base since the conflict began in April 2023.
In a statement, military spokesman Nabil Abdullah said army forces, along with allied units, had “completed on Friday the clearing of” Kafouri and other areas in Sharq El Nil, located 15 kilometers to the east.
Sudan’s de facto ruler Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burnhan earlier declared: “Very soon there will be no rebels in Khartoum.”
According to sources cited by Reuters, a new Sudanese government is expected to be formed once the recapture of Khartoum is complete.
(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
10 Feb 25. India in talks with US to buy combat vehicles, seal fighter jet engine deal as Modi visits, sources say
• Summary
• Companies
• Modi visits Washington on Wednesday and Thursday
• Trump wants India to buy more U.S.-made security equipment
• Modi says defence, technology, trade and energy ties in focus
India is in talks with the United States for the purchase and co-production of combat vehicles as well as finalising a fighter jet engine deal, people familiar with the matter said, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President Donald Trump this week.
The world’s biggest arms importer, India traditionally relies mainly on Russia. Last month, Trump asked Modi, who heads to Washington on Wednesday for a two-day visit, to buy more U.S.-made security equipment, and move “toward a fair trading relationship”.
“I look forward to meeting my friend, President Trump,” Modi said in a statement on Monday before leaving for France and the United States.
“This visit will be an opportunity to build upon the successes of our collaboration in his first term and develop an agenda to further elevate and deepen our partnership, including in the areas of technology, trade, defence, energy, and supply chain resilience.”
Modi is preparing additional tariff cuts ahead of his meeting with Trump that could boost American exports to India and avoid a potential trade war, government officials said.
India and the United States have been in protracted talks over the co-production of Stryker combat vehicles made by General Dynamics (GD.N) and also used by the U.S. Army.
They are also working to wrap up contract talks on co-production of fighter jet engines in India for the Indian Air Force, a deal agreed in 2023, said two sources who sought anonymity as they were not authorised to tall to the media.
“We certainly wish to expedite the transaction which we would like to have with the United States,” Defence Production Secretary Sanjeev Kumar told reporters on Sunday, adding that such efforts were underway. But he did not elaborate.
Officials of India’s state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) (HIAE.NS) are set to meet in coming weeks with U.S. officials and the aerospace unit of General Electric (GE.N) maker of GE-414 engines, for talks to finalise the deal by March, the sources said.
GE, HAL, General Dynamics, the U.S. embassy in New Delhi and Indian defence and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
New Delhi has started talks with the Trump administration on a plan to buy Stryker vehicles after they were demonstrated late last year for the Indian Army, two other sources said, also speaking on condition of anonymity.
The plan envisages that India will acquire a few hundred Strykers with a mounted anti-tank guided missile system, they added, and later co-produce them through a state-run firm, the sources said.
It was not immediately clear if the two potential deals would feature in talks between Modi and Trump, whose warning on Sunday that he would introduce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the United States could also hurt Indian companies. (Source: Reuters)
07 Feb 25. Somalia: Counter-insurgency campaign underscores overland movement risks. On 6 February, the Puntland Defence Forces (PDF) claimed it had captured and killed at least 85 Islamic State Somalia (ISS) militants over the previous 48 hours. The operation is part of a renewed counter-insurgency campaign targeting ISS cells that received assistance from the US Africa Command (AFRICOM). According to the PDF, the campaign has captured 97 square miles (250 sq km) of territory (including 50 ISS bases) and destroyed training and weapons manufacturing facilities. In the coming weeks, the PDF will likely continue operations targeting ISS cells in the al-Miskaad mountains, particularly in Iskushuban and Qandala districts (both Puntland region). While PDF operations will degrade ISS capabilities in the short-term, we assess ISS will likely be able to successfully withdraw across the al-Miskaad mountains and reconstitute its forces. In response to counter-insurgency operations, we assess ISS will likely seek to intensify kamikaze drone strikes and landmine attacks targeting PDF bases and convoys. This will drive risks to staff and assets during overland movement along thoroughfares linked to Bosaso and its port facilities (both Puntland). (Source: Sibylline)
06 Feb 25. China move to strengthen control over military development. Xi Jinping tightens control over military equipment research, while at the same time, the US Department of Defense undergoes a major overhaul.
As chairman of the Central Military Commission, China’s president, Xi Jinping, revised regulations on scientific research relating to military equipment. The new rules will come into force on 1 March 2025.
The Ministry of National Defence (MND) did not provide any definitive details other than to say that the stipulations comprise 49 articles in eight chapters.
Although the MND does describe the changes, intimating that “the regulations set rules for the quality control, cost management, acceptance procedures, support measures, and safety and confidentiality issues.”
Tighter measures will be implemented to keep the country’s steady defence production rate going. The industrial powerhouse already maintains a competitive edge over the United States – a strategic rival eager to catch-up – in areas such as defence investment and most notably shipbuilding.
These problems are disconcerting as American industry – labelled the “arsenal of democracy” by Franklin D. Roosevelt during World War II – has fallen well behind: China has invested in military equipment five to six times faster than the US, according to the Center for Strategic and International Security (CSIS).
With “a vision”, the MND says, “that features high quality, efficiency, low costs and sustainable development…” the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Navy and Air Force may proliferate further.
MCF strategy
What has helped to propel China’s military expansion is its Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) strategy. MCF is the act of promoting – or ensuring – the coordination and integration of military and civilian industry, which is all the more important in a technological era of dual-use.
This even includes Chinese entities present in America. Last month, the US Department of Defense (DoD) blacklisted 50 new Chinese companies – including prominent technology providers, Huawei and Tencent – operating in the US that it suspects may be too close to the PLA for the US government’s liking.
However, it is worth noting that the DoD list only prohibits the US government’s engagement with these supposed Chinese military companies.
Nevertheless, MCF has lifted China’s defence industrial potential, and “it is probably even higher than its military spending and domestic defence industries suggest” CSIS observed.
US DoD undergoes a major overhaul
Xi’s decision to update these regulations comes just after US President Donald Trump, and his pick for Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, begin to shake-up the DoD.
Simply put, they hope to deliver more capabilities more quickly. But before they do, Hegseth unveiled his first move last week to implement a sweeping overhaul of structures, decisions, and processes to align them with the America First doctrine.
Whether Beijing perceives these changes at the Pentagon to be a threat is down to speculation. However, Hegseth’s rhetoric certainly indicates plans to uproot restrictive protocols under Biden:
“Rebuilding the US military,” Hegseth said on 25 January 2025, “means reviving our defense industrial base, reforming our acquisition process, passing a financial audit, and rapidly fielding emerging technologies.”
(Source: army-technology.com)
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