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31 Jan 25. China’s military is building a massive complex in western Beijing that US intelligence believes will serve as a wartime command centre far larger than the Pentagon, according to current and former American officials. Satellite images obtained by the Financial Times that are being examined by US intelligence show a roughly 1,500-acre construction site 30km south-west of Beijing with deep holes that military experts assess will house large, hardened bunkers to protect Chinese military leaders during any conflict — including potentially a nuclear war. Several current and former US officials said the intelligence community is closely monitoring the site, which would be the world’s largest military command centre — and at least 10 times the size of the Pentagon. Based on an assessment of satellite images obtained by the FT, major construction started in mid-2024. Three people familiar with the situation said some intelligence analysts have dubbed the project “Beijing Military City”. The construction comes as the People’s Liberation Army develops new weapons and projects ahead of the force’s centenary in 2027. US intelligence says President Xi Jinping has also ordered the PLA to have developed the capability to attack Taiwan by then. The PLA is also rapidly expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal and working to better integrate its different branches. Military experts believe the PLA’s lack of integration is among its biggest weaknesses compared with the US armed forces. (Source: FT.com)
29 Jan 25. Myanmar: Junta’s reported plans to draft women, further restrict overseas travel highlights shortages. On 28 January, reports emerged that Myanmar’s junta has initiated preparations to draft women for active military service. In February 2024, Myanmar enforced conscription following heavy defeats during the anti-junta ‘Operation 1027’ led by an alliance of ethnic armed organisations (EAOs). Consequently, men aged 18-35 and single women aged 18-27 are now eligible for military service. The junta has mainly conscripted men so far. As the junta continues to struggle to hold onto and regain territory and faces significant manpower attrition, it has reportedly started to compile lists of eligible women in Yangon region. Additionally, on 23 January, the junta reportedly approved restrictions on overseas travel for individuals who are eligible for military service and medically fit, unless granted prior permission. We assess that citizens of Myanmar (particularly males) will highly likely continue to face heightened risks of scrutiny at airports when trying to leave the country. Those residing in junta-controlled areas (particularly in rural areas) remain at risk of arbitrary abduction by the military. The junta is also likely to increase pressure on Thailand’s government to repatriate citizens of Myanmar who have fled conscription. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Jan 25. Congo (DRC)-Rwanda: Opportunistic violence, further protests are likely following capture of Goma. As of 29 January, Rwanda-backed M23 rebels are continuing to consolidate control of Goma (North Kivu province, DRC). This follows several M23 gains on 28 January, when the rebels captured Goma International Airport (GOM) and secured control of central areas, as well as the border crossing with Gisenyi (Rwanda). The East African Community (EAC) will convene an extraordinary summit this afternoon in response to the crisis. However, Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi will not attend. The summit is therefore highly unlikely to result in an agreement facilitating the withdrawal of M23 troops from DRC. Civil society groups are highly likely to conduct further protests in Kinshasa (DRC), despite a ban enforced by the authorities after protesters looted the Rwandan and Ugandan embassies and vandalised the French and US embassies on 28 January. While security around embassies has been bolstered, further opportunistic violence is highly likely. The ban on demonstrations will increase the likelihood of the police utilising heavy-handed dispersal tactics, including tear gas and rubber bullets, elevating bystander risks for staff and assets operating in or near affected areas. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Jan 25. Kagame talks tough on SA involvement in the DRC ahead of SADC meeting. Rwandan President Paul Kagame has accused the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) as being a belligerent force and said South Africa – as a mission contributor – is in no position to take on the role of a peacemaker or mediator.
Kagame on Wednesday in a post on X added that if South Africa “prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.”
The Rwandan leader’s tough words came ahead of a Friday 31 January SADC summit in Harare, Zimbabwe, to discuss the security situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Rwanda-backed M23 rebels this week took over the city of Goma, and are now advancing south.
It has been speculated that the SADC might withdraw its forces from the DRC and push for a ceasefire and peace talks, Daily Maverick reported. SADC members have been lacklustre in their support of SAMIDRC, with just South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi contributing troops to the mission, which is mandated to help the DRC government “neutralize negative forces and armed groups in the Eastern DRC.”
Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Ronald Lamola, this week said, “there is consensus that the only way forward is a ceasefire; it’s a political engagement that President Ramaphosa has always spoken about from the onset in the DRC process. The President has always said that the solution is a political engagement.”
President Cyril Ramaphosa on Wednesday said he spoke to Kagame twice this week and insisted that a ceasefire must hold.
“I held two conversations this week with President Ramaphosa on the situation in Eastern DRC, including earlier today,” Kagame said yesterday. “What has been said about these conversations in the media by South African officials and President Ramaphosa himself contains a lot of distortion, deliberate attacks, and even lies. If words can change so much from a conversation to a public statement, it says a lot about how these very important issues are being managed.”
Kagame made “a few important clarifications for the record,” including that “SAMIDRC is not a peacekeeping force, and it has no place in this situation. It was authorized by SADC as a belligerent force engaging in offensive combat operations to help the DRC Government fight against its own people, working alongside genocidal armed groups like FDLR which target Rwanda, while also threatening to take the war to Rwanda itself.”
The Rwandan President accused SAMIDRC of displacing a “true peacekeeping force, the East African Community Regional Force, and this contributed to the failure of the negotiation processes.”
Ramaphosa, Kagame said, asked for support to ensure the South African force has adequate electricity, food and water, “which we shall help communicate.”
“President Ramaphosa confirmed to me that M23 did not kill the soldiers from South Africa, FARDC did,” Kagame said, in reference to crossfire between the M23 and DRC government forces that resulted in several SA National Defence Force fatalities.
“If South Africa wants to contribute to peaceful solutions, that is well and good, but South Africa is in no position to take on the role of a peacemaker or mediator,” Kagame warned. “And if South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.”
It is understood that South African troops in Sake and Goma have a truce with the M23, who essentially have them under rebel control, but that the South African soldiers have been allowed to keep their weapons and equipment for now. They may be allowed to leave the DRC via Rwanda at a later stage. The Tanzanian and Malawian contingents seem to be facing a similar situation.
On Wednesday Defence and Military Veterans Minister Angie Motshekga said South African soldiers were “in a safe place” with no attacks on them in the last 48 hours.
There are reports that South Africa is readying reinforcements in the wake of the death of 13 soldiers over the last week – possibly including Gripen fighter jets, but Ramaphosa has emphasised that the only solution to the DRC crisis is a diplomatic and political one.
The East African Community met to discuss the DRC on 29 January, and called for a peaceful settlement of the conflict and engagement of stakeholders, including M23 and other armed groups. It also called for a ceasefire but little concrete action other than a joint EAC-SADC summit “to deliberate the way forward.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
30 Jan 25. SIU finds corruption, wasteful expenditure, little consequence management in Department of Defence, Denel. As President Cyril Ramaphosa’s point person on defence, Minister Angie Motshekga – even though she had no part in defence related corruption, mismanagement and wasteful expenditure in South Africa’s sixth administration – now has to face the music following a comprehensive Special Investigating Unit (SIU) presentation to Parliament’s Standing Committee on Public Accounts (SCOPA).
Among others Advocate Andy Mothibi’s presentation showed State-owned defence and technology conglomerate Denel, the Department of Defence (DoD) and the Department of Military Veterans (DMV) were collectively responsible for bns of Rands being spent unwisely.
Political parties jumped on the damaging presentation, coming at the same time South Africans heard 13 of their soldiers died in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), calling for heads to roll in the wake of what one termed “unconfined corruption and mismanagement”.
Acquisitions under the SIU microscope ranged from computer programme licensing, through to the acquisition of personal protective equipment (PPE) at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and an unregistered Cuban prophylactic drug to protect military personnel from the virus as well as information technology (IT) security services, steel fabrication and fabricated products, misappropriation of intellectual property (IP) rights in respect of air-to-air missiles, stand-off weapons, target missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
An indication of just how wide-ranging the investigation was comes from Mothibi’s 59 slide PowerPoint presentation to SCOPA. It lists progress with litigation and prosecutions as well as other potential actions regarding criminal activity, recovery of money and disciplinary action.
Some of the amounts given in the SIU presentation are R38.6 m for Casspirs destined for Chad; IP misappropriation by Tawazun in the UAE valued at R325m with royalties of R1.5bn attached; R217 m paid for Heberon prophylactic drugs; and R273m for personal protective equipment contracts.
On Denel, which former public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan once cited as “a prime example of State capture”, the SIU, among others, peered into the nooks and crannies of contracts related to Project Hoefyster, the replacement infantry fighting vehicle for the SA Army and the acquisition of what was BAE Land Systems as well as the IP for the RG35 armoured personnel carrier (APC).
The SIU noted that in May 2007, the Armscor Board of Directors approved the placement of an R8.3 bn contract with Denel Land Systems for 264 different variants of the Badger vehicle under Project Hoefyster, with delivery to Armscor in 10 years. “As a result of various decisions taken at the Board and Executive level, DLS was unable to fulfil its contractual obligations (in relation to the Hoefyster Contract).”
The matter will be referred to the civil litigation unit for assessment. Former board members will be served with right of reply based on the findings the SIU investigation in terms of criminal referral.
Regarding Hoefyster, the SIU investigated a R229 m contract in November 2014 with VR Laser for the manufacturing of hulls “despite the strategic requisition of LMT by Denel for the manufacturing of the Hoefysters. The SCM processes were flouted to favour VR Laser and had it not been the manipulation of scores, LMT would have scored the highest points.”
Motshekga will, on an as yet not known date, be called to “please explain” to the Parliamentary financial oversight watchdog committee.
With this seemingly set to provide political parties, trade unions and other civil society organisations with more ammunition to take on the Minister, whose responsibilities now include Denel post the demise of the Department of Public Enterprises (DPE), calls for action have come from, not in alphabetical order, Solidarity, the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), ActionSA, and the Democratic Alliance (DA).
Responses cover the money spent on Cuban prophylactic Heberon, government bailouts totalling R9 bn to Denel, almost R500m on software licences, the use of private email addresses to forward sensitive acquisition information, and a lack of consequence management, amongst others.
The EFF condemnation, in part, has it the SIU findings confirm what many South Africans have suspected for years –“ the deliberate and systematic looting and mismanagement of our defence sector from the misuse of resources to the outright theft of intellectual property.” South Africa’s defence capabilities, Julius Malema’s party has it, are in jeopardy and “threaten the lives of those in uniform”.
“The SIU report reveals that Denel spent ms of rands outsourcing the development of a white paper to establish a funding model for the company. This function could have easily be handled internally, but instead, Denel chose to spend ms of taxpayers money unnecessarily on an external contract.”
The EFF called the “massive scandal” involving the misappropriation of Denel’s IP as “treasonous behaviour.”
“The SIU investigations further revealed that the Department of Defence spent over R250 m Rands over two contracts to acquire software licenses, despite the department having an internal IT department capable of fulfilling this function. The decision to outsource this basic need was not only wasteful but also fraudulent.”
The EFF called on the National Prosecuting Authority to urgently take action on SIU referrals to hold those responsible for corruption and mismanagement in the Department of Defence, the Department of Military Veterans, and Denel to account.
The DA, via its appropriations spokesman, Mark Burke, notes it’s been almost 20 years since Project Hoefyster for new infantry fighting vehicles was signed, and “to date none have reached our troops”. Calling the non-delivery “flagrant looting” he maintain it is “tantamount to treason” as it “undermines our national security”.
“A shortage of armoured vehicles has been highlighted as a critical flaw leading to previous military disasters such as the Battle of Bangui,” he said.
“The Badger contract is just one of many horror stories at Denel. The SIU detailed how Denel was swindled out of the IP it generated in the design of two missiles. The missile IP was ultimately transferred to a firm in Dubai. The Denel staff involved also joined the Dubai firm.
“In a separate missile matter, Denel failed to certify the missiles needed to equip our Gripen fighter jets with strike power, making the jets impotent for DRC combat. So we’re leaking IP while failing to arm our troops,” a DA statement has Burke saying.
“These cases highlight the terrible lack of internal controls and consequence management at the SOE. Denel has also received R9 bn in fruitless bailouts over the last five years, yet its financial situation remains dire. There is no turnaround at Denel. Our soldiers are paying the ultimate price for the abhorrent mismanagement at Denel and the Department of Defence. The DA will reject any further bailouts at Denel,” Burke concluded.
ActionSA also climbs on the missile/IP bandwagon calling the treasonous misappropriation of sensitive missile intellectual property belonging to South Africa a nefarious move to aid foreign state-owned companies.
Its statement reads, in part: “As South Africans grapple with the tragic loss of 13 soldiers in the DRC, fighting a war that is not ours under dire resource constraints, leaving our troops under-equipped and outgunned, it is utterly unconscionable that Denel has been allowed to squander our critical resources, further undermining our war fighting and defence capacity”.
Centurion headquartered trade union, Solidarity, is no stranger to Denel, having taken it on when salaries went, in some cases, unpaid, and in others, not paid.
Quoting from its 2018 “Denel dossier”, Derek Mans has it mismanagement damaged Denel, the lives of employees affected by salary short payments and has now gone as far as “the tragedy unfolding in DRC”.
“Denel,” according to him, “has left South Africa’s national security vulnerable”.
The union’s “Denel dossier” was handed to government in 2018 “now it is also the responsibility of Minister Motshekga who will have to give feedback on the SIU finding to SCOPA” Mans said in a Solidarity statement.
Reform proposals for Denel submitted by Solidarity include earmarked funding for projects, as well as the end of cross-subsidisation and a commitment to partnerships with the private sector. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
30 Jan 25. Haiti: General election is unlikely to materialise due to ongoing gang violence, corruption allegations. On 29 January, the president of Haiti’s transition council announced plans to hold a general election on 15 November. The aim is to transfer power to a democratically elected government by 7 February 2026. Ongoing gang violence in the capital Port-au-Prince and corruption allegations against several council members are jeopardising the prospect of the elections being held. Gangs control approximately 85% of Port-Au-Prince’s metropolitan area. Meanwhile, foreign governments have faced logistical and financial difficulties to contribute to the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM), which aims to improve Haiti’s security environment. The mission is therefore currently having a limited impact on addressing gang violence. This will highly likely sustain violent crime and attack risks in the medium-to-long term, complicating the council’s ability to hold general elections in November. In the event of elections being held, we assess that corruption allegations against council members would highly likely reduce the legitimacy of the electoral results, sustaining government stability, domestic unrest and socio-economic health risks in the medium-to-long term. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Jan 25. Georgia: Continued democratic backsliding will sustain Western sanctions, domestic unrest risks. On 29 January, Georgia withdrew its delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). This decision followed a PACE resolution stating that the credentials of the Georgian delegation would be reviewed and revoked if Georgia did not hold democratic parliamentary elections. PACE also restricted several of the Georgian delegation members’ parliamentary rights citing concerns over democratic backsliding and reports of violent crackdowns against anti-government protesters and opposition activists. This underscores Georgia’s growing rift with the West due to the country’s current political trajectory under the tenure of the increasingly authoritarian and anti-West ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party. GD’s victory in the October 2024 parliamentary elections and its subsequent decision to suspend talks on EU accession have prompted frequent pro-West anti-government demonstrations over the past few months. We assess that the latest development will highly likely fuel anti-government sentiment and sustain elevated domestic unrest risks. Ongoing democratic backsliding will maintain Western scrutiny and increase targeted sanction risks in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Jan 25. Congo (DRC)–Rwanda: Ceasefire is highly unlikely in coming days amid conflict escalation. On 29 January, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels consolidated control of Goma (North Kivu province, DRC). Sporadic small-arms engagements continue in pockets of the city. The rebels are also advancing south through South Kivu province but were repelled by the Congolese army (FARDC) in the town of Nyabibwe (South Kivu) around 28 miles (45km) north of the provincial capital Bukavu. In the coming days, the M23 is likely to continue operating in South Kivu, though an assault on Bukavu in the coming weeks is currently unlikely. This comes as Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi pledged to intensify military campaigns against the M23 to recapture lost territory, in contrast to calls for a ceasefire from the East African Community (EAC). As such, we assess that the prospects for a negotiated ceasefire are very limited in the coming days, as the DRC will likely first seek to ascertain what can be achieved militarily. This will drive conflict escalation in North Kivu and South Kivu, though FARDC efforts are unlikely to result in the recapture of Goma in the coming days. Ultimately, conflict-related risks will continue to impact staff and assets operating in the region. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Jan 25. Nigeria: Jihadist drone attack in Borno state underscores elevated risk of attacks, militant capabilities. On 27 January, Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) claimed responsibility for an attack that killed at least 20 Nigerian soldiers at an army base in Mallam Fatori (Borno state). The attack involved drones, IEDs and suicide bombers, and represents one of the deadliest recent attacks targeting Nigerian soldiers. The use of drones reflects the elevated sophistication of ISWAP’s attacks and the ability of the group to target isolated military positions more effectively and therefore deny the armed forces’ attempts to establish a more permanent presence in rural areas. Further drone attacks on military positions and civilian communities will elevate the risk of attacks facing NGO staff engaged in rural development projects. The overall increase in the group’s capabilities signalled by the use of drones includes more adept kidnap for ransom (KFR) and hostage-holding abilities. The attack is likely to trigger an augmented security response in Borno, including through the use of airstrikes by the Nigerian Air Force (NAF). However, we assess the limited capacity of the Nigerian security forces to maintain their positions in rural areas will limit the effectiveness of such strikes. As such, they will only temporarily reduce the risk of attacks (and accompanying bystander and KFR risks facing staff operating in affected rural areas). (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jan 25. Legoete calls for more SANDF funding amid ‘security lapse’ in the DRC. The Chairperson of the Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV) Dakota Legoete has said South Africa is facing a ‘security lapse’ in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) following the deaths of 13 soldiers, and consequently is ‘becoming a joke’. In an interview with eNCA, Legoeta on Tuesday said the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is in the DRC in line with United Nations and Southern African Development Community efforts to bring peace. “Any destabilisation of the DRC can create instability in the whole region,” with a potential refugee crisis affecting South Africa, he said. The Department of Defence on Tuesday confirmed that another four soldiers have been killed in combat against Rwandan-backed M23 rebels, bringing the total to 13 in the last week. Dozens more have been injured. When asked if the SANDF is adequately resourced to handle the M23 rebels, Legoete told eNCA “we’ll only be able to make a call and do a cost benefit analysis once briefed by the minister.” Defence Minister Angie Motshekga and the Chief of the SANDF General Rudzani Maphwanya visited the DRC last week and are due to brief President Cyril Ramaphosa on the situation there. The PCDMV is due to receive a briefing on Wednesday. Pushed for an answer on whether the SANDF lacks the resources and training to deploy to the DRC, Legoete said, “indeed we need a budget. Many self-respecting nations they put almost 2% of their GDP towards their defence forces and that’s a model that we want to adopt in this country.
“You know the whole country, every point of our territory, every part of our sovereignty, needs to be guarded by the national defence force and that is going to be costly and does not come cheap. And we are at war. Nations throughout the world are preparing for war. We cannot be waiting.
“We expect the President to push for more budget for the defence force. We are also meeting with the finance appropriation committee as the portfolio committee on defence to request more funding because you expect us to fight zama zamas, you expect us to protect the oceans, air, skies, everything…and to keep the peace in Africa. They don’t come cheap. So we expect for more push in the increase of the defence force. Because we’re becoming a joke now.
“We are becoming a joke because we are just about to create a security lapse and it’s not on. We are calling on treasury to stop their austerity measures when it comes to defence and allow us to defend the nation and defend the continent,” Legoete concluded.
SANDF soldiers in the DRC are hamstrung by a lack of air support, particularly attack helicopters, as no Rooivalks are available. When the Rooivalk was first deployed against the M23 in 2013, the rebels ceased fighting within a week. The situation today has been compounded by Rwandan deployment of surface-to-air missiles and other sophisticated equipment, making air support challenging even if it was available.
Sensible option is withdrawal – Sandu
South African National Defence Union (Sandu) national secretary Pikkie Greeff told IOL that, “we are now between the devil and the blue sea as the saying goes. We are isolated there; we have no capability to go and rescue our members with a quick air extraction. Anything we would attempt now; we do not have the air capability at this stage to lift people out of any place.”
He said the only sensible option at this stage is to negotiate a ceasefire with the M23 and arrange safe passage out, even though this would be very embarrassing.
Economic Freed Fighters’ Member of Parliament Carl Niehaus told IOL that Motshekga should resign over the events in the DRC. “We do not have an air force to speak of. Our army is under resourced, without necessary equipment which can protect SANDF soldiers in the DRC. The sad thing is that the M23 rebels are far better equipped, with technical equipment and training than what the SANDF troops are. This is not something we learned yesterday. We knew it all along, so to have sent the troops there, was to send them to a killing field,” he said.
South Africa has over 1 100 troops deployed with the UN’s MONUSCO mission in the DRC and over 800 with the SAMIDRC deployment. Only Tanzania and Malawi have contributed troops to SAMIDRC, something which experts have criticised, saying that if other SADC nations do not contribute, it makes it difficult for South Africa to shoulder responsibility when its military is already stretched to breaking point.
SANDF clearly overstretched
Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures and Innovation at the Institute for Security Studies, told the SABC that “very clearly the SANDF is amongst others is overstretched…the SANDF forces don’t have a logistic, air and other support. Many of their vehicles and equipment are no longer serviceable.” This meant that the troops around Goma and Sake in North Kivu province were eventually driven back by the M23 to Goma, which is partly under rebel control.
“This is an old story of the SANDF, which is underfunded and poorly led from a political perspective,” Cilliers said. Having to help secure South Africa’s borders, fight illegal mining, and engage in peacekeeping activities, “it is completely overstretched and underequipped and doesn’t have the means really for the deployments that are being authorised.”
“We can’t support our forces from south Africa. We don’t have the aircraft and the ammunition and other stocks in area,” he said of the DRC deployment. “The Rooivalk helicopters and other support equipment are no longer serviceable.”
Cilliers told the SABC that it’s unlikely the defence budget will increase substantially so South Africa has to scale back its ambitions. “We really have to scale down on a top heavy structure and train and equip the military for roles such as peacekeeping and border security.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
28 Jan 25. Lebanese Army Chief Accused of Leaking Intelligence to Hezbollah During Ceasefire. Suhil Bahij Gharb, the head of military intelligence for southern Lebanon, has been accused of leaking classified information to Hezbollah during a ceasefire agreement with Israel, according to intelligence sources reported by The Times. Gharb allegedly passed sensitive details from a security control room managed by the U.S., France, and U.N. peacekeepers tasked with overseeing the ceasefire. The report claims that his placement in the control room was secured through senior Hezbollah commander Wafiq Saffa, who survived an Israeli assassination attempt in October 2024, and that other Lebanese military officers have similarly provided intelligence to Hezbollah. The November 27, 2024, ceasefire required Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and dismantle military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. In return, Israeli ground forces were to pull out of Lebanese territory. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN peacekeepers would then take control of the area.
The intelligence document referenced by The Times states: “Hezbollah use[s] internal, sensitive information regarding the Lebanese army to hide its actions from the international entities in charge of regional security.” It further notes that the leaks raise concerns about the LAF’s ability to take control of southern Lebanon, “where Hezbollah has for years been the dominant political and military force.”
Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend the deadline for Israeli troops to leave southern Lebanon until February 18, following the expiration of the 60-day deadline set in a ceasefire agreement. Israel requested additional time after the deadline passed on Sunday.
Israel said it needs more time because the Lebanese army has not yet deployed to all areas of southern Lebanon, as agreed upon, to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing its presence there.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese army said that it cannot deploy until Israeli forces withdraw.
The White House on Sunday said “the arrangement between Lebanon and Israel, monitored by the United States, will remain in effect until February 18, 2025.” The statement also noted that the two governments “will begin negotiations for the return of Lebanese prisoners captured after October 7, 2023.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
27 Jan 25. Belarus Presidential Election: Joint Statement, January 2025. Australia, Canada, the EU, New Zealand and the UK have released a joint statement following Belarus’ sham presidential elections on 26 January 2025. Joint statement from the Commonwealth of Australia, Canada, The European Union, New Zealand, and The United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland:
We are united in our condemnation of the sham presidential elections in Belarus on 26 January and the ongoing human rights violations perpetrated by the Belarusian regime. Recently announced sanctions represent a coordinated, multilateral effort to hold the Lukashenko regime to account.
No election can be considered free, fair or in line with international standards when it is held in a climate of ongoing repression, marked by a clampdown on civil society, arbitrary detentions, and restrictions on genuine political participation. The regime’s decision to invite the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe / Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights to observe only 10 days before the elections prevented ODIHR’s access to key stages of the election process. These actions are at odds with Belarus’ international commitments and demonstrate a clear desire to avoid transparency in the electoral process.
We condemn the ongoing appalling human rights violations committed by the Lukashenko regime and call on them to release the over 1,250 political prisoners who remain unjustly detained. We urge Belarus to follow its international human rights obligations and OSCE commitments in all respects, including restoring an open civil society, to create an environment in which new elections which meet international standards can be held. We stand with the Belarusian people and recognise their right to determine their own future in a genuinely free and fair manner, without fear, oppression or external interference.
We will continue to support the aspirations of the Belarusian people for a free, democratic and independent Belarus. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
27 Jan 25. UK applies fresh sanctions following sham election in Belarus.
- UK sanctions 6 individuals and 3 entities alongside Canada, in an immediate response to rigged presidential election in Belarus
- sanctions target leaders of institutions responsible for serious human rights violations and companies in the Belarusian defence sector supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine
- action demonstrates government’s commitment to working internationally to deter threats and protect national security, a foundation in the government’s Plan for Change
The Chairman of the Belarusian Central Election Commission is among 9 individuals and entities designated by the UK today (Monday 27 January) in a fresh wave of sanctions in response to yesterday’s sham election in Belarus.
Following Lukashenko’s brutal crackdown in which critical voices within Belarus have been silenced, yesterday’s sham election failed to meet international standards and has been condemned by international partners.
Alongside sanctioning leaders of institutions responsible for serious human rights violations in the country, the UK has excluded Belarusian defence companies from the UK economy – a sector of strategic importance to Lukashenko’s regime which is helping to facilitate Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Working with international partners to protect UK national security is essential to deliver the foundations of the Prime Minister’s Plan for Change.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “The world has become well-accustomed to Lukashenko’s cynical pretence of democracy in Belarus, while in reality he brutally represses civil society and opposition voices to strengthen his grip on power. The UK, alongside our partners, will continue to stand by the people of Belarus and expose those who deny them their legitimate right to freedom and democracy.”
According to the Viasna Human Rights Centre, a Belarusian non-governmental organisation in exile, over 1,250 political prisoners are incarcerated in Belarus, including civil society representatives, human rights defenders, journalists, political opponents, religious leaders, and trade unionists. Many political prisoners are held in shocking conditions, facing isolation, mistreatment and a lack of medical care.
Today’s designations include Heads of ‘GUBOPiK’; one of the main security forces responsible for political persecution in Belarus. Individuals sanctioned today are:
- Igor Vasilyevich KARPENKO – Chairman of the Belarusian Central Election Commission.
- Viktor Alexandrovich DUBROVKA – Head of the Belarusian correctional institution Penal Colony No11, Vaukavysk
- Pavel Ivanovich KAZAKOV – Head of the Belarusian correctional institution Prison No 1, Hrodno.
- Andrey Mikhailovich TSEDRIK – Commanding Officer of Pre-trial Detention Centre (SIZO) No 1, Minsk.
- Andrei Valerievich ANANENKO – Head of GUBOPiK.
- Mikhail Petrovitch BEDUNKEVICH – Deputy Head of GUBOPiK.
Belarus has provided support for Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, allowing the use of its territory and airspace to launch attacks and provided kit and logistical support.
The 3 entities from Belarus’ defence sector sanctioned today are:
- ALEVKURP OJSC – a company affiliated to the Government of Belarus specialising in research and development and manufacturing of radar systems and weapon control systems.
- Legmash Plant JSC – a Belarusian company producing ammunition for the Belarusian defence sector.
- KB Unmanned Helicopters (UAVHeli) – a Belarusian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) developer and manufacturer. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
27 Jan 25. MONUSCO operational status raised to counter M23 in eastern DRC as rebels claim Goma. The M23 advance on North Kivu capital Goma, first reported last week, saw the United Nations (UN) mission in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) activate a quick reaction force (QRF), two battalions, a Special Forces platoon and an artillery battery to counter the offensive. The activation was made known to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) yesterday (Sunday, 26 January) by Bintou Keita who, in addition to heading the world body mission – MONUSCO – is also UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ Special Representative in the troubled central African country. She spoke during a special meeting where escalating violence in especially eastern DRC was the sole topic. Setting the tone for what was a sombre presentation, Keita told the SC General Peter Cirimwami, North Kivu Military Governor, was wounded “on the battlefield” on 23 January and subsequently died.
Her situation report to the SC had it “despite ongoing MONUSCO support to FARDC, M23 and Rwandan forces penetrated Munigi quarter in the outskirts [of] Goma city, causing mass panic and flight amongst the population. Roads are blocked and the airport can no longer be used for evacuation or humanitarian efforts. M23 has declared the airspace over Goma ‘closed’. In other words, we are trapped”.
M23, she said, expanded its control in North Kivu and extended its advance into South Kivu, where MONUSCO withdrew in June 2024. “It has received reinforcements and supplies to strengthen its positions along several axes, both south and north of Goma. It notably deployed a heavy presence near Sake 25 km west of Goma and is advancing in Munigi nine kilometres north of Goma.”
These developments saw MONUSCO, in line with its mandate to protect civilians, activate Operation Springbok III. This saw two battalions – one rapid deployment and one reserve – along with a QRF, Special Forces platoon and an artillery battery move to operational status. The activation, Keita said, was to reinforce MONUSCO positions to counter the M23 advance.
Keeping civilians safe is a priority and the use of especially artillery will be “carefully calibrated” to avoid harm to Congolese, damaging civilian facilities and steering clear of “our forces on the ground”.
Non-essential UN personnel stationed in Goma have been temporarily relocated for their own safety. Those that remain in the provincial capital will maintain essential UN operations, she said, adding the removal of UN personnel “in no way affects the unwavering commitment of the UN to provide humanitarian aid and protect civilians in North Kivu”.
The M23 advance, according to Keita, has led to an increase in GPS jamming and spoofing incidents. These are now “more intense than ever before” and “hamper” MONUSCO efforts to execute its mandate. To curb and hopefully prevent this type of incident, MONUSCO “stands ready” to provide documentation supporting a DRC complaint to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).
“MONUSCO’s robust posture in support of FARDC (Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo) and SAMIDRC (SADC Mission in DRC) has helped counter mis- and disinformation,” Keita told the UNSC, urging the Congolese authorities and MONUSCO continue co-ordinating joint communication in the interests of “clear, unified messaging”. She drew the SC’s attention to “a troubling rise in targeted hate speech led by M23-affiliated online campaigners”.
“Their hateful rhetoric targets me as Special Representative of the Secretary-General and the Mission’s Spokesperson, who has received threats of sexual violence.”
Rebels claim Goma
On Monday, the M23 claimed they had captured Goma. In a statement, the rebels said they had given the FARDC 48 hours to surrender their weapons over the weekend, and urged civilians to remain calm. Videos showed groups of heavily armed men, believed to be M23 fighters, walking through Goma’s northern suburbs.
The Guardian reported that 100 Congolese government soldiers had handed their weapons to United Nations forces in line with rebel demands. The FARDC, MONUSCO, and SAMIDRC are still believed to hold Goma’s airport and other key areas.
There have been reports of Rwandan and FARC troops exchanging fire across the border, with the DRC claiming Rwanda has sent over a thousand troops into the DRC. Rwanda denies backing the rebels but said that the ongoing conflict poses a national security threat, resulting in a “sustained defensive posture”. The DRC government said Rwanda’s support for the rebels was a “declaration of war.”
Key roads around Goma are blocked and the city’s airport is inactive. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have attempted to flee – the BBC reported that according to the UN, sites on the outskirts of the city sheltering more than 300 000 displaced people, were completely emptied out in the space of a few hours.
South Africa condemns rebel attacks
South Africa’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Mathu Joyini, on Sunday called on the Rwanda Defence Forces to cease support to the M23 and for the rebel group to immediately cease all hostile actions and withdraw from occupied areas.
“We cannot accept a world wherein non-State actors are armed to do the will of other States, while those States refuse to accept responsibility for unnecessary armed violence and potential war crimes.”
At least 13 soldiers serving with peacekeeping forces in the DRC were killed by M23 rebels after two days of fierce fighting, including nine members of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) serving with MONUSCO and SAMIDRC.
“We deplore these unwarranted attacks against MONUSCO and the SAMIDRC uniformed personnel who are deployed not only to promote peace, security, and stability in eastern DRC but, by extension, in the African continent in general,” Joyini said.
“The cost of being a UN peacekeeper should never be this high. This Security Council has passed many resolutions providing clear guidance on such violations against peacekeepers. The Security Council must take decisive action against callous acts to undermine its role and decisions to maintain international peace and security.”
Joyini believes that the situation in the eastern DRC requires decisive action from the international community led by the UN Security Council following the killing of peacemakers.
“This Council must send a clear message that peacekeepers’ lives matter. We must value and safeguard the contribution of those entrusted to carry out the mandates adopted in this Chamber,” she told the UN on Sunday. “The Security Council must use the tools at its disposal to act against those who perpetuate the conflict in eastern DRC, including calling for their withdrawal from the DRC.”
“There must also be a resumption of both the Luanda and Nairobi Processes to find a lasting political solution to the cyclical conflict in the eastern DRC. South Africa commends His Excellency João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço, President of Angola in his capacity as the African Union Champion for Peace and Reconciliation in Africa, for his tireless work on the Luanda Process.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
26 Jan 25. The UK is deeply concerned by the scale and pace of recent M23 and Rwandan Defence Forces advances in eastern DRC: UK statement at the UN Security Council.
Statement by Ambassador James Kariuki, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on the Democratic Republic of Congo. Transcript of the speech, exactly as it was delivered.
President, MONUSCO peacekeepers and personnel work bravely to deliver this Council’s mandate in the most difficult of circumstances.
The United Kingdom reiterates clearly today that attacks on UN peacekeepers are absolutely unacceptable, and may constitute war crimes.
We also recall that planning, directing, sponsoring or conducting attacks against MONUSCO peacekeepers may constitute a basis for UN sanctions designations.
The UK extends its sympathies to the families of the Blue Helmets from South Africa and Uruguay who have lost their lives serving in MONUSCO, and we extend our best wishes for a full recovery to those peacekeepers who have been injured.
The UK also extends its condolences to the families of all troops from the Southern African Development Community Mission in DRC who have lost their lives in support of DRC’s stability and security.
As we do so, we fully acknowledge that the numbers of those lost and injured is changing by the hour. It is a critical moment for DRC and for the region.
President, I would now like to make three points.
First, the United Kingdom once again condemns the violent actions of all armed groups, including FDLR and M23.
We are deeply concerned by the scale and pace of recent M23 and Rwandan Defence Forces advances in eastern DRC.
In December this Council renewed MONUSCO’s mandate. And in the four weeks since, M23’s unacceptable offensive, and that of the Rwanda Defence Forces, through North and South Kivu, has resulted in the capture of several towns and villages.
As we’ve heard, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced, and violence has intensified as a result.
We are also deeply alarmed by M23’s declaration that they intend to take Goma, a city where the humanitarian situation is already catastrophic.
The rising number of displaced people resulting from M23’s territorial expansion has placed further pressure on crowded IDP camps and exacerbates the challenges faced by humanitarian actors.
This morning, the UK Foreign Secretary spoke with President Kagame and called for urgent de-escalation, outlining the need for Rwanda and the DRC to urgently return to the negotiating table.
Now, more than ever, it is critical that MONUSCO is able to deliver its mandate. M23 attacks on peacekeepers, with support from the RDF, must stop immediately.
These attacks prevent the force from being able to discharge its Security Council-mandated mission to protect civilians.
Rwandan spoofing and jamming of GPS signals, which obstruct UN and humanitarian operations, must also stop.
We urge all parties to remember their obligations under international humanitarian law.
Finally, President, the United Kingdom once again extends its thanks to Angola for its leadership on mediation efforts.
We encourage DRC and Rwanda to return to the negotiating table and to focus on making tangible progress on delivering on their commitments under the concept of operations.
There can be no military solution. Fighting must stop. Civilians must be protected. And the parties should engage in good faith in the political process. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
24 Jan 25. US lawmakers find UAE provides weapons to Sudan RSF; UAE denies this.
- Summary
- Lawmakers will keep up push to block arms sales to UAE
- Sudanese people suffer humanitarian catastrophe
- UAE denies providing weapons to paramilitaries, says it wants peace
Two U.S. lawmakers will keep trying to block arms sales to the United Arab Emirates, having determined that the UAE is providing weapons to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s civil war, they said on Friday.
A UAE official denied this.
The Sudanese army and the RSF together led a coup in 2021 removing Sudan’s civilian leadership, but fell out less than two years later over plans to integrate their forces. The war that broke out between them in April 2023 has plunged half of the population into hunger.
Senator Chris Van Hollen and Representative Sara Jacobs, both Democrats, said in a statement to Reuters they based their determination on a briefing from former President Joe Biden’s administration and other reporting. (Source: Reuters)
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