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15 Jan 25. Belarus: Alleged plot to take border regions reflects aim to justify crackdown during electoral period. The state secretary of Belarus’ Security Council, Alyaksandr Valfovich, claimed earlier on 16 January that members of the Belarusian opposition residing abroad are planning to seize Belarusian border regions to introduce a Western ‘peacekeeping’ contingent therein. Valfovich did not provide any evidence to support his highly dubious statements. The official did not disclose a timeline for when so-called Belarusian ‘extremists’ supposedly intend to execute this plot. We assess that Valfovich’s claims are almost certainly false, and timed to coincide with the upcoming presidential election on 26 January. It will be the first such vote since the 2020 election, which triggered unprecedented mass domestic unrest. As such, the claims are almost certainly designed to ‘justify’ a heightened security posture and crackdown against known or suspected anti-government dissidents. Ultimately, the risk of arbitrary arrest, harassment, intimidation and surveillance facing such individuals will remain elevated through 26 January, as well as in the days and weeks following the election. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Jan 25. Taiwan: Undersea cable protection measures will bolster communications infrastructure resilience. Earlier on 16 January, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced plans to establish special monitoring zones around undersea cables. This comes after a Cameroon-flagged Chinese-owned vessel allegedly damaged a cable off the north coast of Taiwan in early January. Both the ship’s owner and the Chinese government have denied involvement, though China has previously been suspected of damaging undersea cables connected to Taiwan’s outlying islands as part of its grey-zone tactics. The special monitoring zones will be set up in Bali and Tamsui districts, as well as Fangshan and Toucheng townships and Penghu county. Coast guard patrols will inspect ships flying flags of convenience from countries with a history of falsifying their customs reports if they are located within 24 nautical miles (44km) of the island or near monitoring zones. If necessary, the navy will assist the coast guard in responding to suspicious activities near undersea cables. While the security measures will bolster Taiwan’s ability to safeguard its infrastructure, we assess that the involvement of the navy would possibly increase the likelihood of escalation in case of encounters with Chinese vessels. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 25. Russia: Further crackdown against ‘foreign agents’ abroad is likely in coming months. On 14 January, a parliamentary commission responsible for investigating foreign ‘interference’ in Russia’s internal affairs announced plans to amend legislation so that so-called foreign agents living abroad can be prosecuted. Vasily Piskaryov, its chairman, did not provide any further details about how such amendments would seek to target those with this designation residing outside Russia. Nevertheless, such comments reflect continued efforts to crack down on government-critical Russian exiles, even just through the fear of punishment. It is ultimately unclear what measures Russia can take to prosecute foreign agents living abroad, particularly those residing in so-called ‘unfriendly states’. Reports indicate that the commission plans to submit the initiative to the lower house of parliament by the end of the month. We assess that the amendments will highly likely be approved over the coming weeks and months as part of ongoing efforts to stifle critics still within Russia and those living abroad. For further analysis concerning threats facing Russian dissidents abroad. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 25. Baltic region: New NATO mission will moderately enhance protection of Baltic Sea infrastructure. On 14 January, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the launch of a new NATO mission, Baltic Sentry, to augment the protection of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. It will entail the deployment of assets including frigates, maritime patrol aircraft and naval drones. It comes after numerous undersea data and power cables in the Baltic Sea were damaged in Q4 2023 and again in 2024. Most recently, the Estlink 1 power cable connecting Estonia and Finland was cut on 25 December 2024; the Finnish authorities suspect that a Russian oil tanker (part of Russia’s so-called ‘shadow sea fleet’) sabotaged the cable by dropping its anchor. We assess that the mission will provide a moderate degree of deterrence. However, the huge volume of shipping traffic in the Baltic Sea, combined with Russia’s likely use of civilian vessels to carry out sabotage, will render further incidents possible over the coming year. We assess that this will sustain moderate risks to telecommunication and energy providers. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 25. RoK: Domestic unrest risks elevate following impeached president’s detention. Earlier on 15 January, the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) announced that it had detained President Yoon Suk-yeol at the presidential residence in the capital Seoul at 1033hrs (local time). Yoon, currently under criminal investigation for charges of insurrection, was impeached in December 2024 over his short-lived declaration of martial law. Just prior to his arrest, a video was released by Yoon where he announced that he had agreed to co-operate with the investigation, which he described as ‘illegal’, to ‘prevent unsavoury bloodshed’ following an hours-long standoff between CIO investigators and the Presidential Security Service (PSS). Several thousand pro- and anti-Yoon demonstrators gathered near Hangangjin station in Seoul (close to the presidential residence) causing localised travel disruption. Scuffles were reported between Yoon’s supporters and the police. The authorities now have up to 48 hours to question Yoon, after which they must release him or request a warrant to detain him for up to 20 days longer. We assess that domestic unrest risks will remain elevated this week. His potential release or further detention will likely motivate anti- or pro-Yoon protestors to escalate their activity, though protests will likely remain mostly peaceful. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 25. Global Risks Report 2025: Conflict, Environment and Disinformation Top Threats.
- State-based armed conflict emerges as the top immediate risk for 2025, identified by nearly a quarter of respondents, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and fragmentation globally.
- Misinformation and disinformation lead the short-term risks and may fuel instability and undermine trust in governance, complicating the urgent need for cooperation to address shared crises.
- Environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon, led by extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.
The 20th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report, released today, reveals an increasingly fractured global landscape, where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal and technological challenges threaten stability and progress. While economic risks have less immediate prominence in this year’s survey results, they remain a concern, interconnected with societal and geopolitical tensions.
State-based armed conflict is identified as the most pressing immediate global risk for 2025, with nearly one-quarter of respondents ranking it as the most severe concern for the year ahead.
Misinformation and disinformation remain top short-term risks for the second consecutive year, underlining their persistent threat to societal cohesion and governance by eroding trust and exacerbating divisions within and between nations. Other leading short-term risks include extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber-espionage and warfare.
Environmental risks dominate the longer-term outlook, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to Earth systems and natural resources shortages leading the 10-year risk rankings. The fifth environmental risk in the top 10 is pollution, which is also perceived as a leading risk in the short term. Its sixth-place ranking in the short term reflects a growing recognition of the serious health and ecosystem impacts of a wide range of pollutants across air, water and land. Overall, extreme weather events were identified prominently as immediate, short-term and long-term risks.
The long-term landscape is also clouded by technological risks related to misinformation, disinformation and adverse outcomes of AI technologies.
“Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape” said Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.”
15 Jan 25. Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested and questioned by authorities in relation to a criminal insurrection investigation on Wednesday, saying he was only cooperating with what he called an illegal probe to avoid violence. His arrest, the first ever for an incumbent South Korean president, is the latest head-spinning development for one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies even though the country has a history of prosecuting and imprisoning former leaders.
Since lawmakers voted to stand him down after his short-lived declaration of martial law on Dec. 3, Yoon has been holed up at his hillside residence, guarded by a small army of presidential security that blocked a previous arrest attempt. He agreed to come in for questioning after more than 3,000 police officers determined to arrest him marched on his residence in the early hours of Wednesday. (Source: Reuters)
14 Jan 25. RoK: Political instability, security threats are elevated amid president’s impeachment trial. Earlier on 14 January, South Korea’s Constitutional Court adjourned the opening session of the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk-yeol after he did not attend. The next court session is scheduled for 16 January and will take place regardless of Yoon’s attendance. Yoon also faces a criminal investigation over his short-lived imposition of martial law in December 2024. The Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) will likely seek to execute a re-issued arrest warrant over the coming days. On 3 January, the CIO failed to detain him after being blocked by Presidential Security Service (PSS) personnel at the presidential residence in the capital Seoul. If the PSS refuses to co-operate, another standoff is likely. This would heighten disruption and bystander risks, given that 1,000 police investigators will reportedly be deployed. Also on 14 January, Seoul announced that North Korea had tested multiple short-range ballistic missiles. We assess that these developments highlight the political instability and security threats currently facing South Korea. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Jan 25. Armenia-US: Strategic partnership will further drive regional tensions, Russian destabilisation risks. Later on 14 January, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan will meet his US counterpart Antony Blinken in the US capital Washington DC to sign a strategic partnership between both countries. The agreement will reportedly address key areas such as security, likely providing guarantees for Armenia’s security. The agreement is part of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s foreign policy pivot that seeks to increase security ties with the West as it moves away from its historical ally, Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia will consider the move as Armenia’s sovereign decision, hinting that this will not trigger an escalation. However, Moscow will highly likely perceive the move as a threat to its regional interests. That said, given its current embroilment in the war in Ukraine, Moscow retains limited capacity to oppose the deal at this moment. Nevertheless, we assess that the strategic partnership and Armenia’s broader Westward pivot will drive risks of Russian destabilisation and regional tensions with Azerbaijan. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Jan 25. A ground breaking new international Counter Terrorist Task Force (CTTF) has been created to support and partner law enforcement locally, with the investigation into the recent attack of the Jewish community center and synagogue in Cape Town, South Africa and elsewhere in December 2024.
The CTTF brings global specialist counter-terrorist expertise and will provide additional reassurance to communities by reviewing protective security measures and making recommendations for improvement at Jewish Community Centers worldwide.
The CTTF is led by Andre Pienaar, co-founder of the Directorate of Special Operations (DSO), an elite law enforcement unit that was created by Nelson Mandela in South Africa. The DSO was responsible for the arrest and extradition to the USA of one of the Al Qaeda bombers of the US embassy in Tanzania, Khalfan Mohamed. Pienaar joins the Security Advisory Council of the WJC to align the CTTF with the mission of the WJC to protect Jewish communities worldwide.
The CTTF has access to a range of specialist experts and resources globally but specifically, also includes other national security leaders highly experienced in counter-terrorism;
- Rear Admiral Mike Hewitt, former Deputy Director for Global Operations, Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Defense Department.
- Dean Haydon, former Senior National Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism in the United Kingdom, and former Deputy Assistant Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police Service.
- Maj. Gen. (Ret.) David Tsur, former Commander of the Counter-terrorism Unit in the Israeli Police (“Yamam”).
The CTTF will initially publish a report on its findings of the events in South Africa, in partnership with the Security Advisory Council of the World Jewish Congress (JWC). Included will be recommendations for the improvement and protection of places of worship and community centers against terrorism worldwide.
The CTTF will also analyse recent attacks that occurred on synagogues in Melbourne and Montreal in December 2024, and the planned terrorist attacks on Jewish community centers in Mendoza, Argentina, in August and the attack in Chicago in the United States on October 2024.
Considering these recent attacks, the Counter Terrorist Task Force asks that communities remain vigilant and stay safe when going about their daily activities and report suspicious activities to the relevant authorities.
Andre Pienaar: “The simultaneous timing of the attacks in December in South Africa, Canada and Australia reflect a global campaign of terrorism that targets Jewish community centers and places of worship worldwide, over decades. This now requires a coordinated international response to deter further attacks and to bring the perpetrators to justice. The CTTF will work closely with the local authorities to support the ongoing investigations, while helping communities to innovate the way in which community centers and places of worship are protected for the future.” (Source: PR Newswire)
10 Jan 25. China is building a new class of mobile piers, satellite images reveal, which could bolster its ability to land an invading force in Taiwan, a major step in its preparations for a potential future attack. Satellite images captured on Friday and reviewed by the Financial Times show six barge-like vessels equipped with extendable ramps under construction at China’s state-owned Guangzhou Shipyard. The vessels could help the People’s Liberation Army transport heavy military equipment such as tanks and artillery across mudflats or seawalls on to firm ground. The construction of the vessels, first reported by defence website Naval News, comes as the PLA is trying to close large gaps in the capabilities needed to launch an attack on Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of its territory and has threatened to annex by force if Taipei resists unification indefinitely. Last month, China unveiled a new hybrid amphibious assault vessel, the largest of its kind in the world, which military commentators likened to a “light aircraft carrier”. Calls seeking comment from China’s defence ministry went unanswered on Monday. According to Chinese military academic papers, the PLA would target ports and airports in the event of an invasion of Taiwan to allow it to bring in troops and materiel. Amphibious beach landings would be necessary if that approach failed or fell short, as hundreds of thousands of soldiers would be needed to conquer and control the island. In amphibious landing exercises since at least 2020, China’s military has experimented with floating docks and causeways for unloading armoured vehicles and other gear from ferries and other ships. But the barges under construction in Guangzhou have several pairs of pylons resembling the legs of offshore oil rigs, suggesting they can be anchored in the coastal silt. “The PLA has probably come to the realisation that those floating systems are too vulnerable to attack because they take too long to assemble, and also just can’t handle heavy wind and waves as they have no stabilisation,” said Michael Dahm, senior resident fellow for aerospace and China studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Washington and a former naval intelligence officer. Chinese military researchers have repeatedly highlighted the importance of stabilised landing gear and the weaknesses of floating systems in papers published in military logistics journals in recent years. (Source: FT.com)
10 Jan 25. Georgia: Former president is unlikely to challenge government stability, despite refusal to concede. On 9 January, the former president, Salome Zurabishvili, opened her new office in the capital Tbilisi, from where she stated that she would continue performing ‘the functions of the president’ (despite losing the recent election). The increasingly authoritarian Georgian Dream (GD) party installed Mikheil Kavelashvili as the country’s new president on 29 December 2024. Separately, reports in US media emerged on 8 January detailing that lawmakers were due to introduce a bill in Congress prohibiting the recognition of or normalisation of relations with the GD-led government. It also recognises Zurabishvili as the country’s sole legitimate leader. Although Zurabishvili has served as a leading figure in pro-EU protests against the ruling party, she is unlikely to be able to co-ordinate an effective opposition to challenge GD seriously in the near term. Meanwhile, her determination to continue acting as president will increase the risk of the authorities detaining and/or launching criminal proceedings against her in the coming weeks and months, which we assess would likely trigger further protests. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Jan 25. Côte d’Ivoire: Incumbent president’s likely re-election bid has increased unrest, bystander risks. On 9 January, President Alassane Ouattara stated that he is ‘eager’ to see a fourth consecutive term, indicating that he will likely seek re-election in the October presidential vote. Although Ouattara’s party, the Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), has not formally selected the president as its candidate, the party adopted a motion in September 2024 calling for Ouattara to run in the election. Ouattara is highly likely to secure the party’s nomination and contest the election. In the months preceding the election, political rallies associated with the RHDP and the opposition will become increasingly frequent, with large gatherings elevating the risk of localised travel delays and temporary operational disruption in cities nationwide. As with the 2020 presidential election, Ouattara’s opponents will likely characterise his candidacy as unconstitutional due to disputes over term limits. We assess that opposition to Ouattara’s candidacy and RHDP campaigning efforts will increase the risk of protests and unrest in opposition strongholds, elevating bystander risks, particularly in Abidjan (Abidjan district) and the capital Yamoussoukro. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Jan 25. Benin: Cross-border attack reflects rising threats to staff in northern regions. On 8 January, unidentified militants killed at least 28 soldiers in an attack on a military position at Point Trible (Alibori department), which is situated in the tri-border area between Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger. Jihadist groups, including al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS) affiliates, are increasingly active in the W National Park (Alibori), wherein Point Trible is located, and Pendjari National Park (Atakora department). While these groups are primarily based in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, regional instability and ineffective counter-terrorism operations have facilitated their expansion into northern Benin since 2021. The position was once among the army’s best equipped in the region. As such, the latest incident underscores a trend whereby jihadists are evolving their tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) from previous attack patterns, which largely targeted more isolated troop positions in Benin. We assess that additional attacks are likely in the coming weeks, particularly in the W and Pendjari National Parks. Increasing jihadist activity will drive security and kidnap risks for NGO and logistics staff moving through rural areas in northern Benin. As a result, the authorities will possibly impose localised curfews and/or movement restrictions. (Source: Sibylline)
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