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05 Dec 24. South Korea: Impeachment vote on 7 December will drive political uncertainty, possible protests. Earlier on 5 December, the opposition Democratic Party (DP) confirmed that it plans to hold a National Assembly vote on 7 December on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. The impeachment motion needs a minimum of 200 votes in the 300-member National Assembly to pass; this would necessitate at least eight members from the governing People Power Party (PPP) to support the motion. Although PPP leader Han Dong-hoon has committed to opposing the motion, defections within the party are possible. The motion was filed following Yoon’s martial law declaration (which he later reversed; see Sibylline Alert – 4 December 2024). A Realmeter poll on 4 December indicated that 73.6% of citizens support impeachment. Protests have continued on 5 December, with various union-led rallies demanding Yoon’s resignation. Labour strikes have also affected the capital Seoul (several rail and subway services faced delays and cancellations amid rail strikes). A smaller pro-Yoon demonstration was also held near City Hall in Seoul. No reports of confrontations were observed, as protests remained largely peaceful. If the impeachment motion fails, we assess there will highly likely be larger-scale demonstrations. If it passes, Yoon will face immediate suspension while the Constitutional Court deliberates on the case, a process that could take several months and drive significant political uncertainty. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Dec 24. Australia, Singapore pledge to ‘increase tempo’ on defence cooperation. Australia and Singapore have committed to “increase the tempo” of navy and air force cooperation, according to comments made during a recent Singapore-Australia Joint Ministerial Committee meeting. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles, Minister for Foreign Affairs Senator Penny Wong and Minister for Trade and Tourism Senator Don Farrell have met with their Singaporean counterparts this week. The Singapore-Australia Joint Ministerial Committee meeting is an opportunity to increase cooperation under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, including across defence and security, trade and investment, the green and digital economies, science and innovation, education and the arts. The ministers also met with Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and conducted separate bilateral meetings. The deputy prime minister also met with his counterpart, Dr Ng Eng Hen, while the foreign minister met with Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, and the minister for trade met with his counterpart, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong.
“We operate through the main air base and naval base here in Singapore, and we want to look at ways in which we can increase the tempo of visits of both our Navy and our Air Force, and we will work together in respect of particularising that in the lead-up to the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership 2.0 next year,” said Deputy PM Marles, speaking at a joint press conference at the Australia-Singapore Joint Ministerial Committee meeting.
“In Australia, there is significant training which is undertaken now by the Singaporean Army at the Shoalwater Bay Training Area, north of Rockhampton in Queensland.
“And there are other projects which are currently being pursued in terms of other training opportunities for the Singaporean Army in Australia. Again, we want to look at all of that to see how we can meet Singapore’s needs in respect of this.
“And the final point I make is that there is training today, there continues to be training, as there has for the last 30 years, of Singaporean fast jet pilots. And that’s occurred at RAAF Base Pearce, which is inside of Perth, on the outskirts of Perth. And again, we want to look at more opportunities for Singapore to have access to and operate from RAAF Base Pearce.”
Singapore is one of Australia’s closest partners and next year will celebrate 60 years of bilateral diplomatic relations.
“It’s a strategic trust that allows us to use each other’s geographic advantages … over the last seven decades, since FPDA and our founding, Australia’s presence has added to regional stability,” Minister of Defence of Singapore Dr Ng Eng Hen said.
“So from our perspective, since we are small and CSP 1 has worked very well with the developments of Shoalwater Bay, how do we increase more trading opportunities for soldiers, our airmen and our navy? That’s what we’ve been discussing.
“From Australia’s perspective, because they see regional stability as integral to their national stability, and it makes sense, if their supply chains are choked here, Australia suffers, how can they add to the regional stability? And how can Singapore accommodate more ships and planes flying through our naval bases and air bases. So it’s no secret, and I think we can come up with something which is mutually beneficial.” (Source: Defence Connect)
04 Dec 24. Argentina: Domestic purview of armed forces will likely raise domestic unrest, militarisation risks. On 3 December, the government of President Javier Milei announced a decree that will expand the role of the military to counter organised crime groups (OCGs). The measure follows violent threats issued by OCGs against Security Minister Patricia Bullrich and government officials in Rosario (Santa Fe province). The measure aims to eliminate Decree 727, which mandates that the armed forces can only intervene against state-backed forces. In March, the federal government attempted to expand the domestic functions of the military. If the latest decree is successful, this would significantly increase the security forces’ presence, elevating operational disruption risks across Rosario. We assess that increased militarisation would possibly help to curtail violent crime in the medium term. Nonetheless, domestic unrest risks would also likely increase in urban centres, given the country’s legacy of military dictatorship and sustained social sensitivities regarding the issue. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Dec 24. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte has accused Russia of assisting North Korea’s nuclear programme in exchange for Pyongyang sending troops to help its war against Ukraine, the first such claim by a senior western official. “In return for troops and weapons, Russia is providing North Korea with support for its missile and nuclear programmes,” Rutte said after meeting Nato foreign ministers in Brussels on Wednesday. “These developments could destabilise the Korean Peninsula and even threaten the United States.” South Korea and the EU last month condemned the deployment of soldiers to Russia by Pyongyang, saying they were “also deeply concerned” about the possibility of nuclear technology being transferred to North Korea. Senior officials in Kyiv have said thousands of North Korean soldiers had been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region, freeing up Moscow’s forces for combat with Ukrainian troops. When asked what had prompted his statement on Wednesday, Rutte declined to provide details of any “intelligence information”, adding: “But more generally, let me say we should not be naive.” “Nuclear technology, missile technology, is flowing into North Korea, and therefore [there] is a risk now that North Korea will use it,” he added. Rutte’s remarks will intensify pressure on South Korea, which is in the midst of a political crisis following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed attempt to impose martial law, to provide arms directly to Ukraine. Yoon and other senior officials in Seoul have described Pyongyang’s direct participation in the conflict as a threat to South Korea’s security that offers North Korean troops valuable battlefield experience and access to Russian military technologies. But Seoul has continued to resist entreaties from western allies to draw on its vast stockpiles of armaments, preferring to contribute to Kyiv’s war effort through non-lethal aid. Edward Howell, a fellow with the Asia-Pacific programme at the Chatham House think-tank, said Russia’s burgeoning co-operation with North Korea had already crossed several “red lines” cited by South Korean officials over the past year as potential conditions for direct arms supplies to Kyiv. “How many more red lines need to be crossed for South Korea to take action?” said Howell, noting that receiving nuclear-related technologies from Russia would be regarded as “extremely important” by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “This forms part of Kim’s ultimate goal, which is to gain de facto recognition of North Korea as a nuclear armed state,” he added. Last year, Kim told a gathering of North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly that he intended to “exponentially increase nuclear weapons production to realise all kinds of nuclear strike methods”. North Korea is estimated to have assembled 50 nuclear warheads and have enough fissile material to produce 70-90 nuclear weapons, according to the Arms Control Association. South Korea’s military intelligence agency said in October that Pyongyang had completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test. (Source: FT.com)
04 Dec 24. UK-Qatar defence partnership strengthened during state visit. New agreements signed as Defence Secretary John Healey and Amir of Qatar visit Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. The UK has strengthened its historic defence partnership with Qatar across land and air today following agreements signed during the state visit of the Amir of Qatar. Qatar is one of the UK’s closest partners in the Gulf region, and one of the first places that Defence Secretary John Healey MP visited after his appointment in July. Today, the Amir of Qatar and the Defence Secretary discussed the shared commitment to deepen cooperation in support of regional security and to support growth and prosperity. The agreements signed include extending and expanding collaboration and knowledge sharing across the joint UK-Qatar Typhoon and Hawk aircraft squadrons. Two Typhoon jets from 12 Squadron – the joint UK-Qatar unit – intercepted the Amir’s aircraft as it entered UK airspace on Monday (2 December). The Amir and the Sheika’s flight was welcomed by a radio message in Arabic from a Qatari Joint Squadron pilot. Defence Secretary John Healey MP said: “It was an honour to host the Amir of Qatar at Sandhurst today, to further strengthen our unique partnership and bolster the security of both our nations. Our joint Typhoon and Hawk squadrons and training Qatari cadets in the UK underlines our shared commitment and cooperation to global security and stability.”
Agreements were signed during a visit to Royal Military Academy Sandhurst by the Amir of Qatar and Defence Secretary John Healey. The Amir, who graduated from Sandhurst, met with some of those he trained alongside, as well as Qatari cadets currently training, and members of the UK-Qatar Joint Typhoon squadron. The Amir and Defence Secretary also witnessed a fly-past by RAF Typhoon and Hawk jets on the Sandhurst parade ground. Among the agreements signed during the visit was a Memorandum of Understanding that will see UK Royal Military police share their skills and expertise with the Close Protection Unit to the Qatar Amiri Guard. The UK is committed to working with allies and partners in the Middle East to support regional stability which helps support security and prosperity in the UK. The joint UK-Qatari Typhoon Air Squadron is the UK’s first Joint Squadron since the Second World War demonstrating the depth and strength of our historical partnership. The Squadron is based at RAF Coningsby and has been deployed to Qatar, with UK and Qatari pilots and ground crew training and operating together. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
04 Dec 24. Myanmar: Conflict risks remain elevated, despite calls by second armed group for junta talks. On 3 December, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – a Kokang ethnic armed organisation (EAO) based in northern Shan state – declared a unilateral ceasefire and called for China-mediated talks with Myanmar’s junta. The group stated that it is willing to discuss issues such as Lashio (the junta’s Northeast Regional Command that the MNDAA captured in August). The announcement comes a week after another EAO, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), announced that it is willing to talk with the junta. Earlier in November, the leader of the MNDAA was reportedly detained in China (though China claimed he was there for medical treatment). The most recent development highlights China’s likely attempt to pressure various groups to cease hostilities that currently threaten China’s interests in the country (and along its border). However, we assess that significant doubts remain regarding the sustainability of talks or possible ceasefires given the lack of trust between the junta and armed groups; despite the TNLA’s announcement last week, junta airstrikes against its territory have reportedly continued. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Dec 24. Congo (DRC): Ceasefire violations will sustain elevated attack, kidnap risks. On 2 December, the authorities confirmed that rebels from the Islamic State (IS)-aligned Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) killed ten people and kidnapped several others on 1 December during an attack against the Batangi-Mbau area (North Kivu province). The attack came amid a general uptick in ADF violence since June, when rebels killed around 50 civilians in North Kivu. The uptick in violence possibly reflects the rebels’ exploitation of persistent instability in North Kivu, where the ongoing conflict with the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group has undermined the government’s control of the region. On 2 December, fighting resumed between the M23 and Congolese forces, violating the 25 November ceasefire between the DRC and Rwanda. While the Congolese and Rwandan presidents are scheduled to meet on 15 December to participate in peace negotiations, we assess that a durable ceasefire remains highly unlikely in the coming months, with Rwanda almost certainly continuing to support the M23 covertly. This will sustain instability in eastern DRC, elevating the risk of attacks and kidnappings facing NGO staff operating in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Dec 24. South Korea: Protests, strikes are highly likely to proceed despite lifting of martial law. At 0430hrs (local time) on 4 December, President Yoon Suk-yeol lifted martial law just six hours after its imposition (see Sibylline Alert – 3 December 2024). This followed a vote by lawmakers in the National Assembly (unicameral legislature) to block the order. Yoon justified martial law as necessary to counter ‘anti-state elements’, though we assess that domestic political challenges were the main driver for his decision. Lawmakers have initiated impeachment proceedings against Yoon, with a vote set to take place on 6 or 7 December. Transport, private sector and telecommunications services are proceeding without major disruption. The Confederation of Korean Trade Unions (KCTU), South Korea’s biggest labour group, has launched an indefinite strike until Yoon resigns. Several hundred protesters have reportedly gathered at Gwanghwamun Square and outside the National Assembly in the capital Seoul. Protests have been largely peaceful so far. The KORAIL union of rail workers has announced that a pre-planned strike will still go ahead from 5 December, likely driving significant disruption to inter-city trains. The Metal Workers’ Union has announced plans to begin a full strike on 11 December. We assess that further industrial action and domestic unrest remain highly likely amid growing calls for Yoon to be removed from office. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Dec 24. Centcom Destroys Threatening Weapons Systems in Syria. U.S. Central Command this morning successfully engaged and destroyed several weapon systems that posed a threat to U.S. and coalition forces in Syria, the Defense Department announced. The weapons destroyed — which included three truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers, a T-64 tank and multiple mortars — presented a “clear and imminent threat” to U.S. and coalition forces in the vicinity of eastern Syria’s Mission Support Site Euphrates, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told the media this afternoon.
“The self-defense strike occurred after the mobile multiple rocket launchers fired rockets that landed in the vicinity of MSS Euphrates, and mortars were fired toward U.S. forces,” Ryder said.
He added that, while DOD is still assessing who was operating the weapons, Iranian-backed militia groups are operating in the region that have attacked MSS Euphrates in the past.
This morning’s incident was the second time in less than a week that Centcom forces were used to neutralize a hostile threat in the region.
On Nov. 29, Centcom employed A-10 fighter aircraft to successfully engage a hostile target that imposed a threat to U.S. and coalition forces at MSS Euphrates.
“Individuals were observed preparing a rocket rail,” Ryder said of the threat.
“These self-defense actions likewise eliminated threats to our personnel at MSS Euphrates,” he added.
When questioned as to whether either of the past week’s engagements was indicative of Centcom working with the Syrian Democratic Forces as part of the greater civil war going on throughout the region, Ryder repeatedly made clear that U.S. forces in the region are primarily focused on protecting their own personnel and partnering with the SDF to counter ISIS.
“To be clear, these self-defense actions successfully eliminated imminent threats to U.S. personnel and were not linked to any broader activities in northwest Syria by other groups,” Ryder said.
“Our focus is on protecting our forces and also preserving our efforts to conduct counter-ISIS operations in partnership with the SDF,” he added. (Source: U.S. DoD)
03 Dec 24. Georgia: Ongoing mass protests will continue to drive government instability in coming weeks. On 2 December, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze sought to downplay the risk of a revolution occurring in the country amid ongoing large-scale violent anti-government demonstrations. Kobakhidze claimed that there have been three attempts at staging a revolution in Georgia over the past four years. According to the prime minister, these plots to topple the government were funded from abroad, repeating typical ‘fifth column’ narratives from the increasingly authoritarian Georgian Dream (GD) government. The intensity of the ongoing demonstrations following GD’s decision in late November to suspend negotiations to join the EU until the end of 2028 has significantly elevated government stability risks. Asides from the continuous street protests, incumbent Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili and the opposition have refused to recognise the new parliament. We assess that growing threats to government stability will likely encourage GD to leverage false claims of protests being funded from overseas to crack down further on protesters and members of the opposition. For further analysis, (Source: Sibylline)
03 Dec 24. Syria: SDF clashes in Deir ez-Zor governorate will heighten armed conflict risks in eastern regions. On 2 December, the Deir ez-Zor Military Council, an Arab militia within the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), launched an offensive against Iran-backed groups and the Syrian Armed Forces (SAF) in Deir ez-Zor governorate. The operation likely aims to seize seven strategic villages on the left bank of the Euphrates River, which together form a vital military and logistical hub for Iranian and Russian proxies. In the coming days, the SDF is likely to capitalise on opposition advances in Aleppo and Hama governorates (as well as the general disarray within the SAF and its allies) to expand its territorial gains in Deir ez-Zor. Successfully capturing these villages and Deir ez-Zor Airport (DEZ) will almost certainly provoke retaliatory action by Iranian proxies, including a possible rise in attacks targeting US-led coalition bases. We assess that such developments will escalate security and bystander risks around these facilities, significantly broadening the scope of armed conflict in Syria’s eastern regions. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Dec 24. RoK declares martial law. At around 2230hrs (local time) on 3 December, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared ‘emergency martial law’ in an unannounced televised broadcast. He stated this was to ‘safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state forces.
SIGNIFICANCE
- President Yoon appointed Army Chief of Staff Park A-soo as the Martial Law Commander. Park has announced that ‘the activities of the National Assembly, local councils, and political parties, as well as all political activities such as political associations, rallies, and demonstrations, are prohibited’. Due to martial law, all media outlets are subject to state control. Anyone suspected of violating martial law is subject to arrest without a warrant.
- This is the first time martial law has been declared in South Korea since 1980. According to South Korea’s Martial Law Act, ‘emergency martial law’ can be proclaimed when ‘social order is critically disrupted, rendering administrative and judicial functions significantly impaired’. This enables the president to impose restrictions on the press and the right of assembly.
- Since taking office in 2022, Yoon has struggled to implement his domestic agenda due to the opposition-controlled parliament. This dynamic was exacerbated by parliamentary elections earlier this year in which the opposition Democratic Party (DP) strengthened its majority. Negotiations between the DP and Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) over the 2025 budget have been deadlocked for several months.
- Yoon also faces significant pressure personally. Various scandals and allegations have involved both himself and First Lady Kim Keon-hee. In November, his approval rating fell to 19%, the lowest since he came to office. Opposition parties have called for investigations into Kim’s and Yoon’s impeachment. Tens of thousands of opposition supporters attended a rally in the capital Seoul on 30 November.
- Yoon seemingly does not have the support of the PPP in this decision. The chairman of the PPP, Han Dong-hoon, has condemned the martial law declaration and pledged to ‘stop it together with the people’. The DP has called for an emergency meeting.
FORECAST
There will almost certainly be an elevated security force presence in major cities in South Korea in the coming hours and days. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) has instructed troops to strengthen their emergency preparedness. The entrance to the National Assembly (unicameral parliament) has been blocked by the police amid calls by the DP for lawmakers to head there urgently. There is unverified footage of army vehicles patrolling Seoul. We assess that disruption and restrictions to overland transport are likely. There is also a realistic possibility that the government will impose internet and mobile network restrictions in the immediate term to prevent gatherings.
Domestic unrest risks in urban centres have substantially escalated. We assess there is a high likelihood of domestic unrest, including protests by citizens opposed to the implementation of martial law. Any such demonstrations will likely be focused around government buildings such as the National Assembly. Heightened political tensions and widespread protests will elevate the risk of clashes between demonstrators and the police. Past instances of civil unrest in South Korea, such as the 2016-2017 protests, point to the potential for such clashes, which will increase the risk for bystanders and the likelihood of significant disruption to public order. The security forces will highly likely forcibly disperse any gatherings, which have been banned under martial law. They will possibly use tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons to do so.
A lack of popular support will highly likely exacerbate instability during martial law. We assess that Yoon’s significant lack of popularity has cast high levels of doubt on the sustainability of the situation. There is a significant risk that public services will be disrupted due to public opposition to the developments, despite the threat of arrests. Significant uncertainty also exists as to how far the rank and file of the police and security forces are willing to go in order to enforce martial law if significant mass protests develop. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Dec 24. World’s top 100 defence groups boost arms sales by 4% in 2023, think tank SIPRI says. The world’s 100 biggest defence equipment makers increased their arms sales by 4.2% in 2023 to $632bn, fuelled by wars and regional tensions, a leading think-tank said on Monday. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in a report U.S. groups on the list grew sales by 2.5% in total compared to the year before to $317bn. Market leaders Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) and RTX (RTX.N) however saw slightly lower arms sales. The rise followed a 3.5% dip in arms sales in 2022, which SIPRI has blamed on labour shortages, supply-chain disruptions and rising costs, which made it hard for many companies to meet increased demand driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European companies on the list – excluding Russian – had roughly unchanged combined sales in 2023 at $133 bn, but order intake surged, and some groups saw a surge in demand linked to the war in Ukraine. Earlier this year, SIPRI reported a 7% increase in global military spending in 2023, the steepest annual increase since 2009.
“Overall, smaller producers were more efficient at responding to new demand linked to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, growing tensions in East Asia and rearmament programmes elsewhere,” SIPRI said.
The Russian groups on the list, including state-owned Rostec, accounted for the biggest combined rise – 40% to $26 bn.
“The arms revenues of the Top 100 arms producers still did not fully reflect the scale of demand, and many companies have launched recruitment drives, suggesting they are optimistic about future sales,” SIPRI researcher Lorenzo Scarazzato said. (Source: Reuters)
29 Nov 24. Africa seen as “greatest global generator of jihadi violence.” Africa, according to a recently published research paper, has the “overall notorious reputation of being the greatest global generator of jihadi violence”. Statistics, the Middle East Africa Research Institute (MEARI) maintains, paint “a worrying picture of the upward trajectory of jihadi terrorism in an increasingly volatile African theatre of operations”. The 80-plus page report “Tracking terrorism trends in Africa” examines major terror groups, their affiliations, operational strategies, targets, goals, organisational structures, international links, attack frequencies, profiles and the nature of targets.
Terrorism, it notes, is not new to Africa and has been around for over 50 years with historical roots on the continent. Prior to the August 1998 terrorist bombings of United States (US) embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam that killed 224 people and injured more than five thousand, the continent was not widely considered a hotbed of international terrorism. Even with these high-profile attacks, the terrorist threat in Africa was generally seen as isolated, narrowly focused, and rooted in domestic problems rarely transcending international borders. This, MEARI has it, would begin to change in the aftermath of the 11 September 2001 attacks and the launching of the American-led war on terror.
“With its vast ungoverned spaces and uncontrolled borders, weak and corrupt governments and impoverished and alienated populations, Africa had come to be seen by many-especially the US and its Western allies as a fertile breeding ground for international jihadist-inspired terrorism.”
The growth of radical Islamist terrorism since the early nineties is something the report calls “a most disturbing trend”. It now poses one of the biggest, and more direct, threats to African peace and stability. African governments, regional and sub-regional organisations and the international community have subsequently given high priority to address this scourge. In Africa today there are numerous home-grown radical Islamist groups with varying degrees of organisation, structure and activism that engage in and/or facilitate a new and highly potent form of terrorism, the report reads in part.
Statistics drawn from published research, according to MEARI, show militant Islamist violence in five major zones, referred to as “theatres of instability”. They are the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel, Egypt, Somalia and Mozambique. Alarmingly, 22 African countries – almost half the continent – face violence from jihadi groups.
South Africa
MEARI reports that cells in South Africa loyal to Islamic State constitute another important hub in the financing of both ISCAP (Islamic State Central Africa Province) and the Islamic State in Mozambique. While not formally organised as an Islamic State so-called “province,” cells in South Africa play an “outsized role’ in revenue generation and co-ordination for central, eastern and southern Africa, as well as local revenue generation for the Islamic State elsewhere.”
On revenue generation in South Africa, the report has it the activities of Islamic State-loyal cells are predominantly criminal in nature. “The alleged Durban-based Islamic State cell led by Farhad Hoomer was reportedly involved in kidnapping for ransom and extortion rackets in Durban and Kliprivier. “Hoomer’s plots to raise funds for the Islamic State were later confirmed by the US Treasury when it sanctioned Hoomer and three other South Africa-based individuals in March 2022 for terrorism financing.”
Other sources confirmed the inter-connected nature between ISCAP, Islamic State Somalia and Islamic State cells in South Africa. Additionally individuals linked to ISCAP worked with South Africa-based Islamic State cells. Two former ISCAP members describe traveling to South Africa – one in 2018, the other in 2021 – to receive military training and religious indoctrination, according to MEARI.
On financing, the report has it South African cells appear to be middlemen, consolidating funds from provinces and support networks primarily focused on generating revenue and transferring money. Money generated in South Africa and Somalia is, MEARI says, laundered across East Africa through a network financing Islamic State activities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Uganda, Tanzania, and Mozambique.
The report maintains Islamic State money assisted in facilitating funding for both attempted and successful improvised explosive device (IED) blasts and suicide bombings in Uganda, the DRC and Rwanda from at least August 2021 to the end of 2022.
Recommendations
The MEARI report notes that terrorism in Africa is a reality, but it needs to be carefully viewed in the context of the continent’s unique history and its socio-economic problems. “This is the real security challenge for the 21st century. Too narrow a focus on terrorism alone—and particularly on international terrorism—as the fount of African insecurity would be a serious mistake,” the Institute reports.
“At the heart of the terrorism challenge in Africa is a plethora of other domestic problems, ranging from violent conflict, state failure, endemic poverty, poor governance, and lack of political and socio-economic inclusiveness. Terrorism is more of a symptom of these societal problems than a driver of insecurity itself and unless headway is made against these problems then terrorism will continue to plague the continent. It has become a tool of the weak and disenfranchised to articulate domestic grievances.
“Jihadi terrorism has now arguably assumed pandemic-like proportions. Indeed a highly ‘virulent strain’ of jihadi terrorism appears to have infected the continent, one that quickly adapted, and rapidly mutated and metastasized into one of Africa’s gravest national and regional security threats to date. Overall attempts at developing a definitive cure has remained elusive.”
To address terrorism, challenges, MEARI believes the solution to African terrorism will only be found in promoting broader societal and human security. “To be sure, developing stronger counter-terrorism capability is part of the equation, but it must be used judicially and not at the expense—or instead of—other non-military tools that seek first to alter the conditions that breed terrorism and allow it to prosper.”
Eliminating root causes of terrorism (by providing basic social services, establishing better land use and property rights etc.), working jointly across the continent, applying selective military pressure and political-economic incentives are other recommendations, along with reducing communal tensions on which terrorists thrive, and improving economic governance. Combatting transnational organised crime is also crucial to weakening terrorist activity, along with reducing armed conflict.
The MEARI report relies heavily on published research and can be accessed here. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
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