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16 Oct 24. Congo (DRC)-Rwanda: Further mediation is unlikely to result in durable ceasefire, raises unrest risks. On 14 October, representatives from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda met in Angola, the capital Luanda, to discuss ceasefire implementation efforts in eastern DRC. Both states re-iterated their commitment to continued mediation, with a further meeting scheduled for 30 October. Despite signing a ceasefire in July, clashes between the Congolese armed forces (and allied ethno-religious militias) and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group have persisted in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces (both DRC), sustaining significant security risks therein. Even so, a durable ceasefire remains highly unlikely in the coming months, with Rwanda almost certainly continuing to support the M23, sustaining instability in eastern DRC. Subsequently, on 15 October, hundreds of demonstrators gathered in Butembo (North Kivu province), to protest the negotiations and oppose a potential ceasefire with Rwanda or M23. We assess that, in the coming weeks, continued mediation efforts will likely trigger further protests in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, increasing risks of unrest and operational disruption, particularly in urban centres including Goma (North Kivu province). (Source: Sibylline)
16 Oct 24. Myanmar: Reported rebel seizure of junta base will drive risk of rare-earth supply chain disruptionOn 15 October, rebel forces led by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) claimed to have captured the No. 1002 Border Guard Force (BGF) base, following a week-long battle. The base is located near Pangwa (Kachin state), a key hub for rare-earth mining and cross-border trade with China. Securing the base would give the KIA greater control over access to Pangwa. This follows the capture on 1 October of the No. 105 Infantry Battalion base in Chipwi (Kachin state), also a rare-earth mining hub, which hosts multiple Chinese-led projects. Reports estimate that more than 300 rare-earth mines are concentrated in Chipwi and Pangwa. The KIA’s gains, including the seizure of over 220 junta outposts since March, contribute to weakening the junta’s control over regions close to the Chinese border. We assess that the proximity of this latest capture to key mining operations (along with ongoing fighting) will drive the risk of disruption to rare-earth supply chains, potentially impacting shipments to China and affecting a major revenue stream for the junta. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Oct 24. China building capacity to rapidly strike Taiwan, senior Taiwanese official says.
- Summary
- China staged latest round of war games around Taiwan on Monday
- China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory
- Taiwan has offered talks with China but been rebuffed
China is building its capacity to rapidly turn military drills into a full-out attack, a senior Taiwan security official said, providing the Taipei government’s assessment of the strategic intent behind Beijing’s war games around the island this week.
China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, staged large-scale drills on Monday that it said were a warning to “separatist acts” following last week’s national day speech by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te.
Taiwan has for the past five years complained of almost daily Chinese military activities around the island, including at least four rounds of major war games and regular “joint combat readiness patrols”.
“They are increasing the building up of their capacity to turn military exercises into a conflict,” the official said at a briefing in Taipei, requesting anonymity to be able to speak more frankly.
Taiwan reported a record 153 Chinese aircraft took part in the drills, and the official added an unprecedented 25 Chinese navy and coast guard boats also approached close to Taiwan’s 24-mile (39-km) contiguous zone.
“They approached very close to Taiwan. They increased their pressure on Taiwan and squeezed Taiwan’s response time,” the official said. “This drill presented more of a threat than ever before to Taiwan.”
The official said during the drill, China launched two missiles towards an unspecified inland area, without providing further details.
“Although they did not fire missiles towards Taiwan this time, they did practice missile launches,” the official said.
China’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. On Monday, it vowed to take further action as needed against Taiwan, while on Wednesday China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said Beijing will never commit to renouncing the use of force over Taiwan.
The Taiwan official said their own intelligence had detected signs of China’s drills ahead of time and deployed assets including mobile missile launchers to strategic spots before Beijing announced the war games around dawn on Monday.
Lai and his government reject Beijing’s sovereignty claims saying only Taiwan’s people can decide their future. Lai has repeatedly offered talks, but he has been rebuffed by China.
REGULAR PATROLS
In a report to parliament on Thursday, Taiwan’s defence ministry said China currently holds three to four “joint combat readiness patrols” per month around Taiwan, in a move the ministry described as “provocation and increasing the threat to our military”.
Taiwan Defence Minister Wellington Koo, asked when China could hold its next war games, told reporters it could be at any time and under any pretext.
“This shows their hegemonic nature, which we can all see very clearly,” Koo said.
The military has already included a plan, in its annual Han Kuang war games, on ways to counter a compressed response time in case China suddenly turns its drills into a real attack, he added.
A Taipei-based diplomat familiar with security issues in the region said Beijing’s war games presented a “big threat” because through the drills, China’s military was quickly building up its mobilisation and combat capabilities.
“The permanent state of readiness is getting higher and higher – they can switch from nothing to drills to war in no time,” said the diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Taiwan has lived with the threat of invasion by China’s People’s Liberation Army since the defeated Republic of China government fled to the island in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong’s communists.
China’s recent war games have not caused undue alarm for most Taiwanese, nor did they impact financial markets on the island.
Asked by a lawmaker at a separate parliament session on Thursday about the possibility of war with China, Taiwan central bank governor Yang Chin-long said they have “appropriate preparations”, without elaborating. (Source: Reuters)
17 Oct 24. Defeat-ISIS Group Adapts to Continue Pressure on Islamic State. In 2014, the terror group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria swept across the two nations threatening millions of people in the Middle East with a vicious government that embraced murder, rape and genocide.
ISIS was unlike other terror groups in that it had pretentions of ruling by caliphate in the Middle East and eliminating people who didn’t believe exactly as they did. The ISIS genocidal moves against the Yazidi people in Iraq resulted in at least 5,000 deaths including the kidnapping and forced conversion of tens of thousands, are a case in point of what their rule might have looked like.
ISIS controlled much of eastern Syria and northern Iraq — including Mosul Iraq’s second-largest city. In 2014, the frontline against the Islamic State was just north of Baghdad.
Today, the vast territory the Islamic State claimed has been liberated thanks in large part to the U.S.-led Defeat-ISIS coalition of nations that pioneered a new and effective way of confronting this worldwide threat.
The terrorists no longer rule territory, but the ideology espoused by the group continues, said Alan Matney, DOD’s coordinator for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, and there is still a need for the coalition.
“I think if we’ve learned anything over the last 10 years of the coalition, then I would argue that this threat does not go away: It changes and it adapts,” Matney said during an interview. “Where we are right now, is we are at a normal and healthy stage where we are adapting, too.”
Over the past decade the coalition morphed from activities that took back territory from the terror group to charting the Islamic State’s next moves and next victims. “Groups like ISIS just continually assess what their strengths are, assess what their weaknesses are and try to position themselves to take advantage of that,” Matney said. “We do the same.”
ISIS, like other terror groups, has a core objective of stretching opposition to them thin, Matney said. “ISIS, very deliberately, wants us to overreact or react in a way that is strategically impossible to maintain. It wants us to use so many resources, that individual countries just can’t do it.
“The coalition really has been our key tool to countering that strategy,” he continued. “Collectively, we’ve spread the burden of opposing ISIS effectively, and we still are today.”
This has changed from military opposition to a foe in the field, to an intelligence-sharing operation. D-ISIS, as Defeat-ISIS is known, also emphasizes counterterrorism training for partner nations, and that burden is also spread among nations, Matney said.
In Iraq, the coalition works with Iraqi security forces. Matney said the Iraqis are “incredibly skilled, now, in counterterrorism operations. They have become really skilled partners. We also have local partners in Syria who are highly skilled and highly capable.”
In response to the coalition successes the Islamic State has much more difficulty operating in Iraq and Syria, he said. ISIS now tries to operate in West Africa, Somalia, Afghanistan and Southeast Asia. ISIS is again a shadowy terrorist organization not really open to military power. “It’s kind of seeping back into places where they are hard to find, requiring different approaches for how you go after it,” he said. “That’s part of our adaptation.”
Again, the coalition gives many advantages. He noted the United States does not have the presence it once did in places like Afghanistan or West Africa. “While we don’t have as much insight into what is going on day to day, we have 87 partners,” Matney said. “In these other areas, where do we have collective strengths? Who among our partners can help us meet those needs?”
The coalition is a unique multilateral organization, Matney said. It does not operate on consensus like the United Nations or NATO, for instance. “When the coalition stood up, we chose a different model,'” he said. “Now consensus-based multilateral organizations obviously do great things — and it is worth noting that NATO is a member of the coalition — but this consensus can come at a cost for nimbleness, for flexibility.”
The coalition is far more nimble and quick. “I tell people, ‘Every member gets a vote, but nobody gets a veto,'” Matney said. “So, we’ve had a partner who said, ‘Hey, we are not going to support that,’ and that is absolutely fine,” he said. “There’s nothing wrong with a nation not being a part of an operation. But there will be nine or 15 or 20 partners who will be part of it. That’s really been powerful.”
This has served as an example to other multinational efforts. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group is the latest example, Matney said. “This is not to say this is the new template for everything, everywhere,” he said. “But it is something we can point to and say how it worked for us, and how it may be adapted in other circumstances.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
15 Oct 24. Syria-US: Attempted drone attack underscores heightened regional tensions, drives bystander risks. Late on 14 October, local media reported that an unspecified Iran-backed militia group targeted a US military base in Deir ez-Zor (Deir ez-Zor governorate) with at least one drone. The US-led coalition forces intercepted the drone near the Conoco Gas Field; there have been no immediate reports of casualties or damage to the base. This comes as tensions between the US and Iran-backed militias gradually grew in the past year over US support to Israel. Further sporadic attacks against the US and Western-affiliated military assets are highly likely, sustaining elevated security and bystander risks to personnel and assets in the vicinity of military facilities, including collateral risks associated with damage from shrapnel. The US-led coalition will likely respond through targeted airstrikes against positions of Iran-backed militants, including possibly in the vicinity of Deir ez-Zor Airport (DEZ), elevating bystander risks. We assess that such strikes will sustain risks of a resumption of frequent engagement between the US and Iranian proxies over the long term, underscoring growing regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Oct. 24. Global piracy at a 30 year low. Piracy incidents worldwide continue to show a downward trend with the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) reporting the lowest number of attacks and armed robbery at sea in 30 years.
The Bureau, an International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) affiliate, welcomed the decrease with the rider that crew safety “remains at risk”.
Seventy-nine incidents were reported for the first nine months of the year – 20 less than in the corresponding period last year.
The January/September period saw 62 vessels boarded worldwide with a further six hijacked, two fired on and nine facing attempted attacks. This, an IMB statement has it, is “a significant overall reduction” and the lowest reported number since 1994.
Eighty-six percent of reported incidents saw access gained to vessels with the majority under cover of darkness. Violence towards crew members remains a concern, with 111 taken hostage, 11 kidnapped and three threatened. Perpetrators were armed with weapons, guns and knives in 45 of reported incidents.
“With reported incidents at their lowest since 1994, the decline in reported piracy and armed robbery incidents is encouraging. This is an important time to reinforce our message not to be complacent and for vessel owners and operators to adhere to IMB guidelines. We commend governments and law enforcement for excellent work which made this improvement possible”, IMB Director Michael Howlett said.
Africa’s traditional piracy hotspot – the Gulf of Guinea – saw 12 reported incidents from January to September – the lowest since 1996.
On the eastern side of the continent, eight incidents were reported off Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden. The decrease is – in part – ascribed to what IMB calls “the prevalence of monsoons” in these waters between July and September.
Incidents in the Singapore Straits dropped to 23, compared to 33 over the same period last year. Perpetrators boarded vessels in 96% of the cases.
Considering the navigational challenges of these waters, IMB warns “even low level opportunistic incidents on board large vessels could potentially increase the risk to navigation”. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
13 Oct 24. Korean Peninsula: Escalating military posturing, threats will drive tensions; wider conflict is unlikely. On 13 October, North Korea ordered its artillery units near the South Korean border to be on standby to open fire. The order comes after tensions escalated on 11-12 October, when Pyongyang accused Seoul of flying drones with anti-regime leaflets over Pyongyang on multiple occasions in October (a claim Seoul has neither confirmed nor denied). Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, warned South Korea of a ‘horrible disaster’ in the event of further drone incursions. On 14 October, North Korean troops appeared to be trying to camouflage roadwork operations near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). This follows Pyongyang’s announcement on 9 October of its intention to sever all inter-Korean roads and railways. North Korea also reintroduced heavy weapons and guard posts in the DMZ. South Korea warned that any harm to its citizens would result in the ‘end of the North Korean regime’. This represents an escalation in tensions on the peninsula. According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), Pyongyang is liable to carry out provocations such as destroying inter-Korean roads or launching a spy satellite. However, we continue to assess that both sides currently do not wish to escalate the situation to a wider armed conflict. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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