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10 Oct 24. Region: ASEAN summit is unlikely to achieve significant breakthroughs. On 9 October, Southeast Asian leaders met in Vientiane (Laos) for the 44th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit. The primary focus was the worsening civil war in Myanmar that was triggered by a military coup in 2021. Thailand proposed hosting an ‘informal consultation’ among ASEAN members in December, urging greater engagement with Myanmar ahead of the junta’s planned election in 2025. However, ASEAN’s existing peace plan for Myanmar has made minimal progress. On the sidelines of the summit, Australia announced that China will lift its four-year ban on Australian live lobster imports by the end of 2024 after a meeting between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese Premier Li Qiang, marking the final step in removing Chinese trade restrictions on Australian commodities. Leaders are also expected to discuss South China Sea issues during the three-day summit. We assess that significant progress on Myanmar’s civil war and South China Sea disputes is unlikely, given the entrenched positions of key stakeholders and the worsening regional security environment. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Oct 24. Mali: Security forces’ failure to secure border positions has increased risk of further airstrikes. On 9 October, the Malian armed forces (FAMa) announced that they recovered the bodies of several deceased military personnel and contractors during an operation in Tinzaouatène (Kidal region). The individuals, including several Russian private military company (PMC) personnel, died in the area in July during clashes with the Permanent Strategic Frame for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD), a secessionist Tuareg group. FAMa has since failed to make substantial progress towards securing key positions in Kidal, highlighting the continued constraints on the security forces’ capacity to address increasing secessionist militant activity, particularly along the Algeria-Mali border. We assess that FAMa likely recovered the bodies during a failed attempt to re-take Tinzaouatène, which remains under CSP-PSD control. In the coming months, FAMa and allied Russian PMC forces will likely continue attempting to retake strategic positions in Kidal, particularly along National Highway 19. We assess this is highly likely to drive an increase in indiscriminate drone attacks and airstrikes, elevating threats to staff, particularly during overland movement in rural areas. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Oct 24. China-Taiwan: PLA drills are possible in coming days following Taiwanese president’s speech. Earlier on 10 October, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te delivered an address outside the Presidential Office Building in the capital Taipei to mark Taiwan’s National Day. He pledged to ‘uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment’ and stated that ‘China has no right to represent Taiwan’. Also on 10 October, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported that 15 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft had entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ). This is in line with recent trends; China maintains an almost-daily military presence near the island. While the MND claimed that China was scheduled to launch a satellite on 10 October, this has reportedly not yet occurred. We assess there is a realistic possibility that China will conduct military drills around Taiwan in the coming days in response to Lai’s speech. In May, Taiwan carried out mock attacks and exercises in the Taiwan Strait after Lai’s inauguration speech. Any such drills would possibly involve missile tests and live-fire exercises and would likely last between several hours and a few days. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Oct 24. North Korea severs all road and rail links to South Korea. Heavy fortification of militarised border follows Kim warning that he could use nuclear weapons on Pyongyang’s enemies.
North Korea’s military has said it would completely sever road and railway connections to South Korea as a “self-defensive measure” in the latest sign of deteriorating relations between the two countries.
The announcement on Wednesday signals a further fortification of the heavily militarised border separating North and South since the Korean Peninsula was divided by war in the 1950s.
North Korea had already been installing more landmines and barriers and creating wasteland next to the demarcation line for months, while simultaneously floating hundreds of balloons carrying rubbish into South Korea and across the skies of the capital, Seoul.
The “substantial military step” was reported by state media outlet KCNA, which carried a statement by the general staff of the Korean People’s Army citing war drills in South Korea and frequent visits by US strategic nuclear assets as the reason.
In a further escalation of hostilities on Monday, Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s authoritarian leader, warned in a speech that he could use nuclear weapons in potential conflicts with South Korea and the US.
He used his speech at the Kim Jong-un University of National Defence to threaten that Pyongyang “will without hesitation use all its attack capabilities against its enemies” if they attempt to use armed forces” against North Korea.
“The use of nuclear weapons is not ruled out in this case,” he added.
On Tuesday, South Korean military sources indicated that North Korea has been seen building what appears to be a nuclear-powered submarine, which Kim has repeatedly declared as a long-term ambition.
In recent days, Kim has also overseen artillery drills simulating an attack on an enemy island, reported NK News.
The military exercise stoked increasing concern that Pyongyang may attempt to change its definition of the maritime boundary between North and South islands off the west coast of the Peninsula, raising the possibility of a clash.
Deepening relations between North Korea and Russia have also alarmed the West.
Kim described Vladimir Putin as his “closest comrade” this week in a message to mark the Russian president’s 72nd birthday and praised ties between their two countries as “invincible and eternal.”
In the past year, the two leaders have pledged to strengthen their military cooperation and to help each other in the event of “aggression” against either country. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
09 Oct 24. Armenia-Russia: Westward Armenian pivot will sustain regional tensions, destabilisation risks. On 8 October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed that Russian border guards would withdraw from the Armenia-Iran border on 1 January 2025. The development is part of an agreement struck by both countries in May on the progressive withdrawal of Russian forces from certain regions of Armenia. As of 1 August, Russian border guards were no longer operating at the capital Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport (EVN). Russia maintains a military presence in Gyumri (Shirak province, Armenia) and stations guards along Armenia’s border with Turkey. However, according to the latest deal, Armenian troops will also protect this part of the border. The latest agreement does not indicate a thaw in bilateral relations. Rather, we assess that it highlights Armenia’s continued efforts to distance itself from Russia while strengthening security ties with the West. Yerevan’s strategic pivot to the West will continue to fuel tensions with Moscow, increasing the risk of Russian-backed destabilisation. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Oct 24. SA could be “defenceless” without intervention in the SANDF.
Following this week’s Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV) meeting there’s been another call for “urgent intervention” in the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) without which South Africa “will be defenceless”.
To prevent this Democratic Alliance (DA) defence and military veterans spokesman Chris Hattingh wants “a comprehensive review of our military”.
And, it’s not only the SANDF he wants under the microscope. State-owned defence and technology conglomerate, Denel, now the responsibility of Defence and Military Veterans Minister Angie Motshekga following the demise of the Public Enterprises Department, must also have a fine tooth comb run over it, he maintains.
Pointing to the biggest expenditure item in the defence budget – salaries – at 61% of the R51.8 bn allocated by National Treasury (NT), Hattingh said it goes to “high ranking officials” and does not “primarily benefit soldiers”. This happens, according to him, when the SANDF lacks funding for 62% of its critical commitments, including the “ongoing deployment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)”.
The DoD salary bill, “cost of employees” (CoE) in human resource-speak, is not confined to salaries. Medical aid and pension are among other overheads in the CoE.
Another negative is R3.4bn worth of unauthorised expenditure at the Department of Defence (DoD). “This money, earmarked by Parliament for important programmes, was used to fund the department’s bloated cost of employees. In addition, the DoD incurred R338m in irregular expenditure contributing to a pattern of financial mismanagement,” he said in a statement after the Tuesday meeting.
Confirmation of the sorry financial state the DoD and SANDF are in comes from the qualified audit of Auditor General (AG) Tsakani Maluleke. The rating, Hattingh maintains, reflects an inability to maintain accurate financial records. The same applies to Denel, on the receiving end of AG disclaimer audits – the worst possible – since 2019/20.
Others who echo Hattingh’s call for another Defence Review include his former Parliamentary colleague Kobus Marais, Democratic Alliance shadow defence and military veterans minister in the sixth administration and African Defence Review (ADR) Director Darren Olivier. On the other side of the fence is Bantu Holomisa, one of two deputies to Motshekga in the government of national unity (GNU).
Speaking during the National Assembly (NA) defence debate in July Holomisa said there was no need for another review in the wake of the 2012 edition, revamped and re-released in 2015.
“The 2015 Defence Review is still relevant,” he said during the debate, adding “effort was never made to implement it” which he laid at the door of South Africa’s financial constraints. The former two-star is of the opinion “new plans based on an appreciation of current realities can be drawn from it without wasting precious time”.
Hattingh was critical of the Department of Military Veterans (DMV) for its inability to maintain a secure, functional database for veterans’ pension payments. “The Auditor General could not even audit the system, as it is currently unworkable.”
“Given these failings, immediate action is needed or else our nation will be left defenceless,” Hattingh concluded. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
09 Oct 24. Border protection seemingly working, SANDF stats show. A breakdown of September Operation Corona successes shows a decrease in the number of illegal immigrants intercepted by soldiers as well as a substantial drop in value of contraband seized.
Statistics provided by the Joint Operations Division of the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) show soldiers put paid to the intentions of 312 foreigners hoping to enter South Africa without the necessary documentation last month. In August 839 “undocumented persons” found themselves in Department of Home Affairs (DHA)/SA Police Service (SAPS) custody pending deportation, close to five hundred more than were stopped in September.
Zimbabweans at 145 made up the majority of September’s illegal immigrants, followed by Mozambicans (88) and Basotho (75).
After confiscating drugs worth R10 m plus in August, either the smuggling fraternity found ways to elude patrols or did not have as much product available to move illegally in September, borne out by narcotics confiscations just short of R2.5m. The Eswatini/KwaZulu-Natal/Mozambique triangle was the biggest offender at R1.9m with Mpumalanga/Mozambique a distant second on R581 253.
Contraband seizures in September were also down on the previous month.
In August soldiers, in a number of instances supported by police, confiscated cigarettes, liquor, pharmaceuticals as well as fake branded clothing, footwear and other items valued at over R3.8m. In September this figure dropped to just over R2m. The contraband was being smuggled into South Africa by Mozambicans, Swazis and Zimbabweans with residents of South Africa’s northern neighbour the biggest culprits. Their share of confiscated contraband was valued at R1.9m.
Joint Operations lists two incidents of “illegal grazing” in September where stock farmers from Botswana and Lesotho cross borders to allow cattle and “small stock” (usually sheep and goats) access to better grazing than in their home countries. The value of these incursions is put at R180 000 for the Botswana cattle and R73 600 for the small stock found on the South African side of the Free State/Lesotho border.
Numerous stolen vehicles were also recovered last month, with R2.3 m worth of vehicles recovered in Limpopo along the Zimbabwe border, and R300 000 worth of vehicles recovered in KwaZulu-Natal along the Mozambique border. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
09 Oct 24. Russia, Burkina Faso talk military cooperation. Russia’s Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and prime minister of Burkina Faso, Apollinaire J. Kyelem de Tambela, discussed in Moscow expanding military ties, the Russian defence ministry said on Tuesday.
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT
Moscow has been pursuing a combination of military, diplomatic, and economic interests in Africa, vying with the West for influence after Russia’s war in Ukraine triggered the biggest confrontation between Moscow and Washington in decades.
After Putin’s landslide win in Russia’s presidential election in March, some newspapers in Africa saw Putin’s re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
Burkina Faso, under military leadership since a 2022 coup, has played host to contingents of the Wagner mercenary force, whose founder Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash in 2024.
In June, Russia said it was sending additional military supplies and instructors to Burkina Faso to help the west African country boost its defence capabilities and fight terrorism.
Moscow has so far invested very little in Africa, according to United Nations data. Its arms exports to sub-Saharan Africa have fallen in recent years, according to 2023 data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. But Russia is still the second-largest supplier of weapons to the region.
At the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersburg, Putin said Moscow signed military-technical agreements with 40 African countries, which potentially open the door for more Russian arms sales to the region.
KEY QUOTE
“Russia-Burkina relations are based on the principles of mutual respect, consideration of each other’s interests and have acquired positive dynamics in recent years,” the Russian defence ministry cited Belousov as saying in a post on the Telegram messaging app. (Source: Reuters)
08 Oct 24. Philippines: New law will improve defence industry’s long-term self-reliance amid regional tensions. Earlier on 8 October, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed the Self-Reliant Defence Posture Revitalisation Act. The act aims to revitalise the country’s defence industry by reducing dependence on imported equipment and attracting foreign manufacturers to establish production facilities in the Philippines. It provides incentives like tax breaks and government-backed financing; it also prioritises the establishment of domestic production capabilities for critical defence materials. The legislation complements a USD 35 bn military modernisation plan spanning the next decade. This push is prompted by rising tensions with China in the South China Sea. At present, the Philippines’ defence industry is focused on small arms and ammunition, with no large-scale capability to manufacture more sophisticated systems. Earlier on 8 October, the Philippine Navy began joint naval drills with the US, Australia, Canada, France and Japan near northern Luzon. These developments, which we assess will likely improve the defence industry’s long-term self-reliance, highlight the Philippines’ efforts to reinforce its military capabilities and regional deterrence efforts in the face of escalating tensions with China. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Oct 24. Collaboration between the UK and Guatemala to enhance the armed forces’ strategic capabilities. Representatives of the Armed forces and civil ministries of Guatemala will attend the course at the Higher Command of Army Education (COSEDE), starting today 7 October.
Participants will develop key strategic leadership skills including decision making under pressure, long-term planning and personal development. The course will also address influencing and motivation and building effective relationships within teams. Participants will also discuss strategic leadership as a tool to understand defence capabilities and the challenges faced by leaders in this arena.
Training will conclude with a certificate presentation by the British Defence Attaché for Mexico and Guatemala, Aviator Colonel Simon Stewart and the British Embassy’s Chargé d’Affaires, Paul Huggins. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
08 Oct 24. Budget cuts, not mismanagement, at the heart of SANDF maintenance issues. Limited funding for maintenance combined with budget cuts has left the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) with no money to maintain the equipment acquired through the Strategic Defence Procurement (SDP) of the late nineties.
This is according to Defence and Military Veterans Minister, Angie Motshekga, who was answering a written question by Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) National Assembly (NA) public representative Carl Niehaus.
The Strategic Defence Procurement package (aka ‘arms deal’) saw South Africa gain four Meko A200SAN frigates, three Type 209 MOD1400 submarines, 26 Saab Gripen fighter aircraft, 24 BAE Systems Hawk Mk 120 Lead-In Fighter-Trainers and 30 AgustaWestland A109 light utility helicopters.
Motshekga assured Niehaus in a written response “proper financial appreciation and planning” was done ahead of the acquisitions. The upkeep (maintenance) budget was continuously cut leaving the Department of Defence (DoD) unable to contract properly for maintenance and repair of delivered equipment.
“The SA Navy and the SA Air Force were the rightful beneficiaries of the SDPs but the further contracting for maintenance and repair of their equipment became unaffordable as a result of continuous budget cuts.”
“The South African defence industry were also affected by the DoD’s contract declining budget cycles which led to some companies filing for bankruptcy.”
On a slightly more positive note, she told the EFF Member of Parliament that National Treasury “from time to time” released limited funds to maintain the equipment.
On consequence management – which the Niehaus question maintains was lacking (using the phrases “serious mismanagement” and “dereliction of duty”), he was told no-one was guilty of improper financial planning or contracting.
Motshekga’ reply has it neither the DoD nor the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has control of “budget cuts” which were addressed in “every budget vote”.
“We find no need to take consequence measures on our members and officials.”
“We have continuously approached National Treasury for more funding. In some cases National Treasury would release funding for the upkeep of all the SANDF equipment and not only for the SDPs albeit not sufficient.”
She stated that over the previous Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), National Treasury allocated R1.4 bn to the SA Navy and R1 bn to the SA Air Force for the maintenance of prime mission equipment.
“The Defence Department used its limited budget carefully and worked on in-sourcing most of the maintenance and repair processes to its members and the struggling South African defence industry. That is why we are able to train our SANDF and able to get our equipment to some internationally acceptable levels.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
07 Oct 24. South Korea-Philippines: Increasing defence co-operation highlights worsening security landscape. Earlier on 7 October, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met in the Philippines, in the capital Manila; the two figures elevated the countries’ bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership. They agreed to ratify a bilateral free trade agreement signed in 2023 which would boost trade and infrastructure investment. The two countries committed to a feasibility study to revive the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (Central Luzon region, Philippines) and strengthen the Philippines’ energy security. They also agreed to enhance defence and maritime cooperation in the context of a deteriorating regional security landscape, including rising tensions in the South China Sea and on the Korean Peninsula. Their meeting coincided with North Korea initiating a constitutional revision to remove unification-related clauses. It will reportedly declare a new maritime border south of the current Northern Limit Line (NLL). We assess that these developments will likely exacerbate existing regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
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