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19 Sept. 24. Pentagon Degrades ISIS, Continues Efforts for Peace in Middle East. The United States military continues to degrade the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, while other defense officials work to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.
Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces launched a raid in Syria that killed four ISIS operatives. The raid was designed to disrupt and degrade the terrorist organization’s ability “to organize and conduct attacks against civilians as well as U.S. citizens, allies and partners throughout the region and beyond,” Singh said.
ISIS remains a threat, and the United States military will continue to work with the Defeat-ISIS coalition to degrade that threat, she said.
Singh also said Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with his Israeli counterpart Defense Minister Yoav Gallant four times since Sunday. The most recent call reviewed regional security developments. Austin reiterated the unwavering U.S. support for the defense of Israel in the face of threats from Iranian-backed extremist groups, Singh said.
“The secretary emphasized the U.S. commitment to deterring regional adversaries, de-escalating tensions across the region and reaffirmed the priority of reaching a ceasefire deal that will bring home hostages held by Hamas and an enduring diplomatic resolution to the conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border that will allow civilians on both sides to return to their homes,” Singh said.
Regional tensions are high in the Middle East and Austin’s call to his counterpart is part of the administration’s push for a deal to end the fighting. “We believe ultimately that the best way to lessen tensions in the region is through diplomatic means,” Singh said.
Singh said Austin is very direct in his conversations about the need to see regional tensions de-escalate. “I’m not just talking about in the last few days,” she said. “From the very beginning, we never wanted to see a wider regional conflict. That was why you’ve seen us surge different assets to the region at different times. We’ve had multiple carrier strike groups in the region. We have different capabilities there now. certainly something that is on the secretary’s mind, it is on mind. This administration is working night and day to ensure that there’s not a wider regional war.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
16 Sept 24. Threat From China Increasing, Air Force Official Says. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall spoke about the growing threat that China poses to the Indo-Pacific region during a keynote address today at an Air & Space Forces Association convention just outside of Washington.
“I’ve been closely watching the evolution of military for 15 years. China is not a future threat; China is a threat today,” Kendall told a large in-person and remote audience composed predominantly of Air and Space Force personnel.
The secretary went on to explain that the Chinese Communist Party continues to heavily invest in capabilities, operational concepts and organizations that are specifically designed to defeat the United States and its allies’ ability to project power in the Western Pacific region, including weapons targeting U.S. land and sea assets like air bases and aircraft carriers.
“In addition, China continues to expand its nuclear forces and its ability to operate in cyberspace,” Kendall said. “We can expect all these trends to continue.”
Kendall further explained that, when traveling to the Indo-Pacific region over the past 15 years, he has seen a growing concern and, at times, alarm from other countries concerning China’s growing capabilities and intentions.
An example of such capabilities and intentions include China’s moving toward larger and more sophisticated exercises tailored for an invasion and blockade of Taiwan, Kendall said.
“I am not saying war in the Pacific is imminent or inevitable. It is not,” Kendall said. “But I am saying that the likelihood is increasing and will continue to do so.”
Noting that the United States must be prepared for a potential future conflict, Kendall then listed numerous ways that the Air and Space Forces are working to do just that, including a massive modernization initiative to achieve operational imperatives.
“To prevent conflict, we must be ready; to prevail in conflict, we must be ready,” Kendall said.
Kendall’s remarks also included updates about other parts of the world.
Referencing the current conflict in the Middle East, Kendall said that Iran’s attack on Israel in April failed thanks, in no small part, to defense provided by the U.S. Air Force and Space Force.
“The efforts of our national security teams and our allies and partners across the world have been successful, so far, in limiting the scale of conflict,” Kendall said. “That success has come as a direct consequence of the U.S. military, including — importantly — U.S. Air Force presence throughout the region.”
While addressing the war in Ukraine, Kendall said Russia will remain a threat in the region, despite if, when and how the war finally ends.
“But while Russia will be weakened from years of war, NATO will be even more resilient,” Kendall said, noting that NATO has become larger and stronger since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, with many NATO countries meeting their percentage of gross domestic product defense spending targets.
“We’re also deepening our partnerships with our traditional allies in Europe,” Kendall said, giving an example of the recent ratification of an agreement between allied countries to share the cost of integrating the Norwegian Joint Strike Missile on the F-35 combat jet.
“This will significantly enhance our maritime strike capability and that of our Norwegian, Canadian and Australian allies and partners,” Kendall said. “This is integrated by design and action.”
Having noted earlier in his speech that he is an appointee who serves at the pleasure of the president, Kendall wrapped up his remarks stating that he will continue to serve in his role with maximum effort to accomplish as much as he can to benefit his branches of service.
“My promise to you,” Kendall told the crowd, “is that I will spend whatever time I have left in public service working as hard as I can to get the Department of the Air Force the resources that it needs to be successful, and to successfully deter our adversaries — if needed — to achieve victory.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
16 Sept 24. Iran’s president says Tehran did not transfer weapons to Russia since he took office. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that his government had not transferred any weapons to Russia since it took office in August, after Western powers accused Tehran of delivering ballistic missiles to Moscow in September.
The United States and its allies accused Iran last week of transferring ballistic missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine, imposing fresh sanctions on Moscow and Tehran.
Russia and Iran both denied the Western claims.
Asked whether Iran had transferred missiles to Russia, Pezeshkian told a televised news conference: “It is possible that a delivery took place in the past… but I can assure you that since I took office, there has not been any such delivery to Russia.”
Reuters reported in February that Iran had provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, deepening the military cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries. (Source: Reuters)
16 Sep 24. DOD Delegation Concludes Military Talks With China. A Defense Department delegation concluded the latest round of military-to-military talks with Chinese counterparts over the weekend, as U.S. officials continue to emphasize the importance of maintaining open lines of communication for responsibly managing competition.
Michael S. Chase, deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, led the U.S. delegation to Beijing for the 18th iteration of the Defense Policy Coordination Talks between the U.S. and China.
The two sides discussed a range of regional and global security issues as part of the exchange, including U.S. concerns over China’s support for Russia’s defense industrial base and the impact that support is having on European and transatlantic security.
“DOD also reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to defending its Indo-Pacific allies, and the department emphasized the importance of respect for freedom of navigation as guaranteed under international law in light of ongoing aggressive PRC harassment against lawfully operating Philippine vessels in the South China Sea,” a senior official said Sunday at the conclusion of the talks.
The U.S. delegation also underscored the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, raised concerns about ongoing provocations from North Korea, and urged China to encourage stability and de-escalation in the Middle East.
The talks mark a continuation of U.S. efforts to maintain the recently reestablished open lines of communication with China.
President Joe Biden secured China’s agreement to return to military-to-military talks last November after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Woodside, California.
In January, senior U.S. and Chinese military officials resumed the U.S.-China Defense Policy Coordination Talks at the Pentagon. Prior to that, the high-level talks were last held in September 2021.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III emphasized the importance of maintaining open lines of military-to-military communication at multiple levels during his first meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in May.
Last week, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo held a video teleconference with China’s Gen. Wu Yanan, commander of the military’s southern theater. During the call, Paparo noted the necessity of continued military-to-military dialogue.
Following the latest talks in Beijing, officials emphasized that the military-to-military dialogue does not signal a change in the U.S. approach to China.
“The department continues to view as our pacing challenge as described in the National Defense Strategy,” the senior official said. ” continues to be the only U.S. competitor with the intent and, increasingly, the capability to overturn the rules-based infrastructure that has kept peace in the Indo-Pacific since the end of the Second World War.”
The official added that the U.S. “remains clear-eyed about intentions and their actions in the region and around the world.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
17 Sept 24. Japan defense budget witnesses 19.3% CAGR during 2020-2024, reveals GlobalData. Despite the current economic downturn fueled by devaluating Yen, Japan’s ministry of defense requested a 17.2% increase in its 2024 defense budget, a significant portion of which is expected to be allocated for the procurement of various defense platforms, including submarines, surface vessels, and multi-role aircraft. Japan’s need to modernize its current inventory to counter any external threats has led the country to sanction an acquisition budget of $18.6bn in 2024, which grew from $9.2bn in 2020 at a robust CAGR of 19.3%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Japan Defense Market Size and Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Key Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2024–29,” reveals that the country’s deteriorating relations with North Korea and China, coupled with its efforts to strengthen claims over the Kuril and Senkaku Islands, will compel Japanese Self Defense Force (JSDF) to modernize its naval and aerial fleet.
Akash Pratim Debbarma, Aerospace & Defense Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Japanese policymakers are ensuring that scheduled procurements of critical assets such as the Taigei-class submarine, Mogami-class frigates, FFM vessels, and F-35A/B aircraft are not impacted due to the current economic turmoil. The slew of ongoing and planned procurements by JSDF highlights the country’s intent to modernize its fleet of defense platforms.”
By forging new partnerships with countries such as Italy and the UK in developing the next-generation multirole aircraft under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), Japan is not only keeping development costs down but also strategically enhancing its security cooperation with other allies apart from the United States.
Debbarma concludes: “Japan has historically maintained a non-nuclear stance since World War II, focusing on diplomatic and defensive strategies. However, with the growing number of nuke-capable missile tests by North Korea, Japan will stay in the path of improving its deterrence measures and reinforce its missile defense capabilities, which includes the deployment of the US-developed Aegis Combat System on Japanese naval platforms.
“As North Korean missiles continue to expand their range and disputes with an assertive China continue to persist, Japanese policymakers will likely push for the procurement of weapons systems capable of conducting long-range strikes to prepare themselves in case all deterrence measures fail. These procurements will continue to drive growth in defense spending by the country over the next decade.” (Source: GlobalData)
16 Sep 24. Philippines-China: Tensions will remain despite withdrawal of Philippine vessel from contested shoal. On 14 September, the Philippines Coast Guard (PCG) withdrew the BRP Teresa Magbanua patrol vessel from the Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea after a five-month deployment. Sabina Shoal is a flashpoint in the Philippines’ territorial dispute with China; several confrontations have occurred in recent weeks. Last week, Chinese and Philippine officials held ‘frank’ talks over the dispute, seemingly without reaching an agreement. On 15 September, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) claimed the ship was returning with its ‘mission accomplished’, though it was ‘compelled to return to port’ so the crew could receive medical care. It added it would send another vessel to the shoal to sustain its presence in the area. There is a reasonable possibility the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) will attempt to obstruct any further Philippine vessel deployment to secure effective control of the shoal itself, similar to the situation at Scarborough Shoal in 2012. China’s significant advantage in terms of resources will make it difficult for the Philippines to defend its territorial claims without external support in the long term. Consequently, regional tensions and the potential for military escalation will remain. However, we assess that all sides remain intent on avoiding a wider armed conflict in the short term. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Sep 24. Botswana: Former president’s return will raise protest risks, opposition support at general election. On 13 September, former president Ian Khama returned to Botswana after three years of residence in South Africa to attend a court hearing linked to several criminal charges, including unlawful weapons possession. Khama claims that the charges are politically motivated and result from public disagreements with his former ally, President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who leads the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). Khama’s return will likely elevate tensions preceding the 30 October general election. Developments in his court cases will likely trigger protests over the coming weeks, particularly in the capital Gaborone. Khama’s return will also likely bolster support for his newly-formed party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), which left the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) alliance in April. We assess that vote splitting between the BPF and UDC will increase the likelihood of the BDP securing a majority. However, there is also a realistic possibility of a BPF-UDC alliance securing a majority of national assembly seats, elevating risks of legislative deadlock and long-term policy stasis. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Sep 24. Georgia: ‘Apology’ for 2008 war raises domestic unrest risks; regional tensions are unlikely to ease. On 14 September, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party Bidzina Ivanishvili suggested that the authorities may possibly apologise for the war with Russia in 2008. Moscow recognised the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia after Russian forces thwarted a Georgian attempt to retake the former territory in August 2008. Ivanishvili blamed the opposition United National Movement which led the country at the time and promised that those responsible would be punished after the 26 October parliamentary elections. Ivanishvili did not assign blame to Russia; this suggests that GD will likely leverage the war to further clamp down on opposition figures after the election. Ivanishvili’s comments sparked protests in various Georgian urban centres, including the capital Tbilisi. A hypothetical ‘apology’ would likely be unpopular among elements of Georgian society, elevating domestic unrest risks around the election. We also assess that such an apology is unlikely to significantly reduce regional tensions with South Ossetia, given entrenched tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Sep 24. Mali: Likely militant attack in capital has increased threats to staff, government stability. On 17 September, local media reported gunfire in Faladie and Senou (both Koulikoro region) on the outskirts of the capital Bamako. Militants have reportedly infiltrated the Gendarmerie School in Faladie; clearing operations are ongoing at the time of writing. The al-Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is likely behind the attacks, which mark the first such incidents in Bamako since 2015, when a shooting attack at a hotel killed 20 civilians. The attacks come as the military government has partially shifted its counter-insurgency operations to focus on increasing Tuareg separatist militant activity. This highlights the limited capacity of the security forces, who have erected numerous roadblocks and checkpoints throughout the capital, restricting access to major thoroughfares and Modibo Keita International Airport (BKO). In the coming hours, the security forces will almost certainly maintain a significantly elevated posture, substantially increasing the risks of operational, supply chain and travel disruption. The attack highly likely intends to exacerbate anti-junta sentiment within the armed forces and the civilian population in a bid to undermine government stability. In response, we assess that the junta will likely intensify repressive measures to moderate government stability risks, increasing human rights concerns. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Sep 24. US-Russia: Russian vessels in US territorial waters underscore heightened tensions in Arctic region. On 16 September, the US Coast Guard reported that it tracked a group of Russian naval vessels that crossed into US territorial waters near Alaska. The ships ventured 30 miles (48km) inside an area known as the US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ); the detour was reportedly to ‘avoid sea ice’. The Coast Guard stressed that it is actively patrolling the maritime borders of the Bering Sea, the Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea. As such, the US will likely increase its presence in these waters in the near term, particularly following the release of an Arctic defence strategy on 22 July. The strategy outlines investments in regional bases and shipbuilding, underscoring sustained national security concerns related to Russia. In the short term, the US is likely to collaborate closely with Canada and Finland to facilitate this strategy. An increased US presence will likely heighten tensions with Russia, which regularly conducts patrols and exercises in the region. In the long term, we assess that Russia’s established and expanding activity in the Arctic will continue to drive concerns in the US, as well as geopolitical tensions more broadly. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Sept 24. Update: air strikes against Daesh.
The RAF are continuing to take the fight to Daesh in Iraq and Syria.
A Royal Air Force Typhoon departs on a mission supporting Operation Shader in support of the Counter-Daesh operations in Iraq and Syria.
Royal Air Force aircraft have continued to fly regular armed reconnaissance patrols as part of the coalition efforts to ensure that residual elements of the Daesh terrorist organisation are unable to re-establish themselves in Syria or Iraq.
On Tuesday 18 June 2024, the crew of an RAF Reaper remotely piloted aircraft, armed with Hellfire missiles, tracked a known Daesh terrorist moving on foot in an area of the Syrian desert. Having confirmed that there were no civilians in the area that might be placed at risk, the Reaper’s crew conducted a successful strike on this individual.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
15 Sept 24. Three Americans Sentenced to Death in Congo Over Failed Coup Attempt. A military court in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) sentenced three Americans to death on Friday, alongside 34 other individuals, for their involvement in an attempted coup. The Americans are Tyler Thompson, 21, Marcel Malanga, 21, both from Utah, and 36-year-old Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun. They were convicted on charges of terrorism, murder, and criminal association related to the failed May 2024 coup, which was led by opposition figure Christian Malanga against President Félix Tshisekedi.
The coup attempt, carried out by a paramilitary group, targeted government sites in Kinshasa, including the presidential residence and the home of parliamentary speaker Vital Kamerhe. Six people were killed during the operation. Christian Malanga, leader of the New Zaire Movement, was killed by security forces during the attack, which he livestreamed on social media.
Thompson and Malanga, who were friends from high school, had traveled to Africa in April 2024. Thompson’s family believed he was on vacation in South Africa but claim he became unwittingly involved in the coup, which was led by Christian Malanga, Marcel’s father. Christian Malanga, who had relocated to the U.S. in the 1990s, declared himself president of a “government-in-exile” opposed to the Tshisekedi regime. Zalman-Polun, the third American, was connected to the elder Malanga through a gold mining venture in Mozambique. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
15 Sept 24. U.S Ranger Regiment & Iraqi Commandos Eliminate 4 Senior ISIS Leaders in Anbar Raid. On August 29, 2023, U.S. Special Forces under the U.S. Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment and Iraqi Commandos conducted a raid in Iraq’s Anbar Governorate, resulting in the deaths of 14 ISIS operatives. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed on Friday that the operation led to the elimination of four senior ISIS leaders.
The four leaders identified were:
– Ahmad Hamid Husayn Abd-al-Jalil al-Ithawi, responsible for all ISIS operations in Iraq,
– Abu Hammam, who oversaw ISIS activities in Western Iraq,
– Abu Ali al-Tunisi, head of technical development, including manufacturing and explosives,
– Shakir Abud Ahmad al-Issawi, in charge of military operations in Western Iraq.
Abu Ali al-Tunisi was of particular interest, with a $5 m U.S. bounty for information leading to his capture or elimination due to his involvement in weapons development and chemical weapons manufacturing.
According to a report from the New York Times, the raid involved over 100 U.S. Special Forces alongside a group of Iraqi forces. According to a statment by CENTCOM, the ISIS operatives were armed with numerous weapons, including grenades and explosive suicide belts. Seven U.S. troops were injured during the raid, five in combat and two from accidental falls. One soldier required evacuation for further medical treatment. There were no reported civilian casualties.
This joint operation was part of continued U.S. military efforts to support Iraqi security forces in combating ISIS. While ISIS has been largely territorially defeated since 2019, U.S. officials estimate that approximately 2,500 ISIS fighters remain active across Iraq and Syria. Earlier this year, CENTCOM reported that ISIS had conducted over 150 attacks in the region between January and June 2023.
The U.S. currently maintains around 2,500 troops in Iraq in an advisory and assistance role, in addition to approximately 900 troops in Syria.
(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
13 Sep 24. Mali: Tuareg rebel drone strike highlights increasing threats to staff in northern regions. On 11 September, the Permanent Strategic Frame for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD) Tuareg rebel group conducted a drone strike against a military base in Goundam (Tombouctou region). Although the strike did not result in any casualties, it marks the second confirmed CSP-PSD drone strike and highlights the group’s increasing aerial capabilities. Although Tuareg militants likely lack the capacity to conduct frequent drone strikes, further sporadic strikes targeting military bases are highly likely in the coming months, increasing incidental risks for assets and personnel in close proximity to military infrastructure. CSP-PSD drone strikes targeting military convoys are also possible, elevating threats to staff during overland movement in northern Mali, particularly when they are accompanied by military escorts. In response to the strike, the Malian armed forces (FAMa) will likely escalate the crackdown on Tuareg rebels and communities deemed to support the CSP-PSD. We assess this will elevate the likelihood of drone strikes targeting civilian population centres in Goa, Kidal and Tombouctou regions, increasing threats to local staff and exacerbating human rights concerns.(Source: Sibylline)
13 Sep 24. North Korea: Further missile tests are likely ahead of US election; armed conflict remains unlikely. On 12 September, North Korea fired several short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. This was the first such missile launch in more than two months and comes a week after Pyongyang stated that South Korea and the US would pay a ‘dear price’ for recent ‘provocative’ joint military exercises. A spokesperson for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JFS) claimed the launches were possibly either a response to the drills or tests for missiles that are to be exported to Russia. On 13 September, Pyongyang published photos showcasing one of its uranium enrichment facilities, with state media claiming that North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un had ordered production at the facility to be increased. There will likely be further provocative actions from North Korea in the build-up to November’s US presidential election as Pyongyang looks to increase its leverage vis-à-vis the next president. A first nuclear test since 2017 is also possible. However, we ultimately assess that North Korea is unlikely to be seeking to instigate a wide-scale armed conflict. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Sept 24. Readout of the 14th U.S.-Singapore Strategic Security Policy Dialogue. Pentagon Spokesperson Maj. Pete Nguyen provided the following readout: Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Amanda Dory hosted the 14th U.S.- Singapore Strategic Security Policy Dialogue at the Pentagon yesterday with Singapore’s Permanent Secretary (Defence) Chan Heng Kee to discuss efforts to strengthen defense and security cooperation between the United States and Singapore.
During their meeting, the two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the U.S.-Singapore defense relationship, which is rooted in both countries’ shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific. They noted that reciprocal access, including the access that Singapore provides to rotational U.S. forces in Singapore, and the training opportunities provided to Singapore in the United States, is a key pillar of the U.S.-Singapore defense relationship.
The two sides also discussed emerging areas of cooperation, including implementation of the Statement of Intent on Data, Analytics, and Artificial Intelligence Cooperation and progress on defense innovation.
They also exchanged views on the regional and global security environment. The United States highlighted concerns about threats to international norms in the South China Sea. Both leaders pledged to continue cooperation to uphold international rules and norms, including through continued contributions to Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea.
PS Chan shared Singapore’s decision to endorse the Statement of Principles for Indo-Pacific Defense Industrial Base Collaboration and intention to participate in the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience — a multinational forum aimed at strengthening defense industrial resilience to promote security, economic security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.
Both sides closed the meeting by discussing multilateral cooperation. The United States thanked Singapore for its leadership in ASEAN and its support for the United States in the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus. (Source: U.S. DoD)
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