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05 Sept 24. China’s Poor Weapon Quality – Export Orders Frequently Cancelled. The sustained decline in Chinese arms exports highlights significant gaps in quality, performance, and after-sales service compared to Western competitors. Chinese arms often suffer from frequent malfunctions and poor service, tarnishing their reputation.
China has a major problem to fix as it aims to become a major defence exporter. Many nations who have purchased weapons from the dragon are now facing what can clearly only be seen as a case of buyer’s remorse. The fifth-largest global defence exporter is experiencing a fall in its share of defence sales. The primary reason for this is attributed to poor quality of equipment and ever-dismal after-sales support leaving current customers fuming and driving potential customers away.
The most prominent example of nations suffering from buyer’s remorse is that of Jordan, which put its six CH-4B armed drones up for sale within a year of acquiring the platform from China. In neighbouring Iraq, eight of the twenty CH-4B drones have crashed, while three Algerian drones of the same type crashed in as many months. Sales of weaponised drones was the only area where China was outcompeting others, but this fad has also ended. With many customers now looking at Türkiye for these drones.
Many nations that procured weapons from China have now stopped buying big-ticket items from that country, the list includes Algeria, Egypt, Iran and Sri Lanka. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has also reported on declining trends when it comes to Chinese defence exports.
Over 80% of Chinese weapons sales are to countries based in Asia, 17% of the sales are to countries in Africa, with residual sales to Central and America. Over 60% goes to just three countries i.e., Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Most customers of Chinese weapons are allured by the price tag. Weapons offered by China are not only much cheaper than the ones offered by Western nations but also cost less than the weapons offered by Russia.
One of the biggest problems faced by users of Chinese weapons systems is after-sales support. Bangladesh has reported problems with it K-8 jet trainers, F-7 fighter jets, FM-90 air defence missile systems. Their army is experiencing problems with the Chinese MBT 2000 tanks. The South Asian nation also purchased 45 Multi Launch Rocket Systems from China, which will now be replaced with 36 similar systems from Türkiye. The Bangladeshi Navy is also ruing buying two China-made Frigates. Neighbouring Myanmar too regrets purchasing JF-17 fighters, these fighters are designed in China and Pakistan assembles them after sourcing critical parts from China.
Pakistan, the biggest importer of weapons from China is suffering, too from similar issues. The Pakistani Air Force (PAF) is the biggest user of Chinese-origin fighter planes outside China. It is the only foreign user of the J-10, a fighter which was pitched to Pakistan repeatedly. The air force of the Islamic Republic also operates over 150 JF-17s and plans to operate nearly 200 units. The aircraft has been through multiple groundings of the fleet and many crashes, the most recent one was earlier this month. The PAF only purchased the J-10 after it was unable to source F-16s either directly or in the second-hand market.
The Pakistanis also rejected China’s CAIC Z-10 attack helicopters in favour of the Turkish T129 ATAK helicopters. Pakistan has also got their Chinese AWACS platforms reconfigured to transport platforms after repeated disappointments.
The Pakistani Army has experienced multiple problems with Chinese equipment, most recently the VT-4 tanks. Pakistan is also dissatisfied with China-made air defence systems and required extensive help from China to fix the system.
Pakistani Navy also experienced issues with the Chinese FM-90 air defence system; also, a headache for Bangladesh. Pakistan’s Zulfiqar class frigates were non-operational on delivery as the gun system, the air defence system and many other critical systems onboard were just not functional.
The Thai Navy acquired Chinese Type071E ships without weapons, sensors and other critical systems for this reason. Opting to take the more expensive route by letting western firms fit out the ship. Other nations too are learning the lesson, which is, that cheap price tag results in sub-optimal performance. (Source: UAS VISION/Bharat Shakti; YouTube)
04 Sep 44. Afghanistan: Bombing underscores ongoing militant threat, fragile security environment. On 3 September, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing in the capital Kabul’s southern Qala-e-Bakhtiar area on 2 September. The capital police reported that six civilians died, while IS stated that there were ‘more than 45’ casualties, including Taliban members’. IS-K claimed that it targeted the Taliban government’s prosecution service ‘to avenge Muslims held in Taliban prisons’. On 1 September, the Taliban announced that it had ‘reactivated’ a notorious prison in Bagram (Parwan province), previously used by the US. This attack demonstrates that the jihadists remain intent on mounting attacks in Afghanistan, including the capital, despite assurances by the Taliban to the contrary. In August, the Taliban stated that IS-K ‘existed’ before but the Taliban had ‘suppressed them very hard’. We assess that IS-K will likely mount further attacks against the Taliban over the coming months, driving safety and bystander risks. However, the Taliban’s grip on power is unlikely to be threatened in the short-to-medium term. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Sep 24. Myanmar: Armed conflict will likely grow in Mandalay region as resistance movement expands. On 3 September, short-range rockets were fired at the Central Regional Military Command in the Aungmyethazan Township of Mandalay city (Mandalay region); according to the Brave Warriors for Myanmar (BWM), a civilian militia force, seven military junta personnel were killed. Mandalay city is seen as the next potential main target for the various allied resistance groups opposing the junta, with the junta increasing security in (and at entry points to) the city in recent months. The junta increased its security posture in this way after losing positions in northern Shan state and northern Mandalay region. As a result, the risk of attacks targeting the security forces in the city will likely be elevated in the coming weeks. However, the bulk of conflict will probably be focused on the townships and military outposts surrounding the city as taking the city itself remains a formidable task despite recent junta losses. We assess that the garrison town of Pyin Oo Lwin, east of Mandalay city, will likely be the key target ahead of a possible push for the city. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Sept 24. U.S. Forces Capture ISIS Commander Behind Recent Syrian Jailbreak. U.S. Army Soldiers and U.S. Air Force JTAC partners with Syrian Democratic Forces to conduct an AH-64(Apache) live-fire in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility, Mar. 20, 2021. In a joint operation with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), U.S. troops captured Khaled Ahmed al-Dandal, an ISIS leader implicated in a recent jailbreak in Syria. The operation took place in the early hours of Sunday, September 1, 2024, and was coordinated by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). Al-Dandal is believed to have facilitated the escape of five ISIS foreign fighters from the Raqqa Detention Facility on August 29.
The escapees included two Russians, two Afghans, and one Libyan. The SDF quickly recaptured two of the escapees—one Russian and one Libyan—while the other three remain at large. CENTCOM has identified the three missing detainees as Russian national Timor Talbrken Abdash and Afghan nationals Shuab Muhammad Al-Abdli and Atal Khaled Zar. The search for these individuals is ongoing.
According to CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the approximately 9,000 ISIS detainees held in over 20 SDF-run facilities in Syria represent a significant security risk. “If a large number of these ISIS fighters escaped, it would pose an extreme danger to the region and beyond,” Kurilla stated.
The capture of al-Dandal occurred just days after a separate U.S. operation against ISIS in Iraq’s Anbar Province, which resulted in the deaths of 15 ISIS militants. During this operation, seven American service members were injured, with one requiring evacuation for additional medical care. This series of operations underscores the ongoing efforts of U.S. and coalition forces to dismantle ISIS’s remaining networks and prevent the resurgence of the terror group in the region. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
04 Sept 24. US to send more senior delegation to China military forum. The United States will send Michael Chase, the deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, to China’s top annual security forum in mid-September, a U.S. official told Reuters.
The choice of Chase has not been previously reported. He is more senior than the U.S. officer who attended the Xiangshan Forum last year, a sign that the U.S. military is hoping for deeper working-level engagement with China amid regional disputes and increased deployments across East Asia.
More than 90 countries and international organisations plan to send delegations to the Sept. 12-14 forum in Beijing, Chinese state media reported Wednesday.
Chase’s attendance is in line with historical norms, the U.S. official added, since then-U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Chad Sbragia attended the forum in 2019. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Washington sent Xanthi Carras, China country director in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense, when the forum resumed last year after a three-year hiatus due to the pandemic. It was a sign of thawing military ties; however Carras’ title is of a lower rank than Chase or Sbragia.
Chase co-chaired U.S.-China military talks in Washington in January – the first such working-level talks since 2022, when most bilateral military engagement was suspended after then-U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
Taiwan and the South China Sea remain contentious flashpoints in the U.S.-China relationship, with both sides unwilling to compromise on “core issues”. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said no new agreements had been reached on the South China Sea during a visit to China last week.
China has repeatedly criticised U.S. deployments in the Asia-Pacific region, including the placement of long-range missiles in the Philippines, as well as U.S. arms sales to democratically governed Taiwan, which China considers its own territory, over the strenuous objections of Taipei.
Meanwhile the U.S. has raised concerns over China’s “aggressive” actions in the South China Sea, its frequent military manoeuvres in the air and waters surrounding Taiwan, and what it says is the opacity of China’s nuclear buildup.
Official nuclear talks were halted by Beijing in July in protest over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. But both sides have agreed that U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leaders would soon speak by phone to their counterparts in China’s southern theatre command, which covers its southern seas.
(Source: Reuters)
02 Sept 24. Japan proposes to accelerate 2025 defence budget growth. Japan’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) has requested a 2025 defence budget of JPY8.54trn (USD58.5bn) to support its bid to modernise the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) amid growing regional threats. According to MoD figures published on 30 August, the proposed expenditure is a 10.5% increase over 2024’s request of JPY7.72trn in 2024. The budget request will be submitted to the finance ministry for approval before the expenditure is finalised in late December.
Build-up plan
Japan’s Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said in a press briefing that the requested 2025 defence budget is aligned with Japan’s Defense Buildup Program (DBP), launched in late 2022.
“2025 is the third year of the defence buildup plan,” Kihara said in comments published by the MoD. “Strengthening of defence capabilities has progressed smoothly, but we must continue to remain vigilant and steadily and swiftly implement necessary projects to further strengthen Japan’s defence and deterrent capabilities.”
Accordingly, the requested 2025 defence budget plans investment across a range of capability themes highlighted by the DBP as necessary for the JSDF. Stand-off defence capabilities receive JPY970 bn in the proposed 2025 defence budget and integrated air and missile defence is allocated JPY537bn. Unmanned systems receive JPY103 bn, command-and-control and “intelligence-related functions” are allocated JPY407bn, and ammunition receives JPY344bn. Cross-domain operational capabilities will receive JPY1.63trn, with the majority allocated for “vehicles, vessels, and aircraft”. Cross-domain capabilities also include JPY227bn for space and JPY265bn for cyber. (Source: Janes)
02 Sept 24. Another senior Russian defence official held on graft charges. A deputy commander of Russia’s Leningrad military district has been detained on suspicion of accepting a 20m rouble ($224,000) bribe, Russia’s investigative committee said on Monday, in the latest in a string of corruption probes. General Major Valery Muminjanov, according to investigators, helped several companies win contracts to provide the military with clothes in exchange for the money, the committee said in a statement. Reuters was unable to immediately contact his lawyer and it was not clear how he has pleaded to the charges. Several senior defence officials have faced criminal investigations since a shake-up at the Defence Ministry began in May when Andrei Belousov replaced Sergei Shoigu as its head. ($1 = 89.3000 roubles) (Source: Reuters)
03 Sept 24. US researchers find probable launch site of Russia’s new nuclear-powered missile. Two U.S. researchers say they have identified the probable deployment site in Russia of the 9M370 Burevestnik, a new nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile touted by President Vladimir Putin as “invincible.”
Putin has said the weapon – dubbed the SSC-X-9 Skyfall by NATO – has an almost unlimited range and can evade U.S. missile defenses. But some Western experts dispute his claims and the Burevestnik’s strategic value, saying it will not add capabilities that Moscow does not already have and risks a radiation-spewing mishap.
Using images taken on July 26 by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, the two researchers identified a construction project abutting a nuclear warhead storage facility known by two names – Vologda-20 and Chebsara – as the new missile’s potential deployment site. The facility is 295 miles (475 km) north of Moscow.
Reuters is the first to report this development.
Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the CNA research and analysis organization, found the satellite imagery and identified what he assessed are nine horizontal launch pads under construction. They are located in three groups inside high berms to shield them from attack or to prevent an accidental blast in one from detonating missiles in the others, he said.
The berms are linked by roads to what Eveleth concluded are likely buildings where the missiles and their components would be serviced, and to the existing complex of five nuclear warhead storage bunkers.
The site is “for a large, fixed missile system and the only large, fixed missile system that they’re (Russia) currently developing is the Skyfall,” said Eveleth.
Russia’s defense ministry and Washington embassy did not respond to a request to comment on his assessment, Burevestnik’s strategic value, its test record and the risks it poses.
A Kremlin spokesman said these were questions for the defence ministry and declined further comment.
The U.S. State Department, the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the U.S. Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center declined to comment.
The identification of the missile’s probable launch site suggests that Russia is proceeding with its deployment after a series of tests in recent years marred by problems, said Eveleth and the second researcher, Jeffery Lewis, of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
Lewis agreed with Eveleth’s assessment after reviewing the imagery at his request. The imagery “suggests something very unique, very different. And obviously, we know that Russia is developing this nuclear-powered missile,” he said.
Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, who also studied the Vologda imagery at Eveleth’s request, said that it appears to show launch pads and other features “possibly” related to Burevestnik. But he said he could not make a definitive assessment because Moscow does not typically place missile launchers next to nuclear warhead storage.
Eveleth, Lewis, Kristensen and three other experts said Moscow’s normal practice has been stockpiling nuclear payloads for land-based missiles far from launch sites – except for those on its deployed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) force.
But deploying the Burevestnik at Vologda would allow the Russian military to stockpile the nuclear-armed missiles in its bunkers, making them available to launch quickly, said Lewis and Eveleth.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia will make changes to its guidelines on the use of nuclear weapons in response to what it regards as Western escalation in the war in Ukraine, state news agency TASS reported on Sunday.
POOR TEST RECORD
A 2020 report by the United States Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center said that if Russia successfully brought the Burevestnik into service, it would give Moscow a “unique weapon with intercontinental-range capability”.
But the weapon’s checkered past and design limitations raised doubts among eight experts interviewed by Reuters about whether its deployment would change the nuclear stakes for the West and other Russian foes.
The Burevestnik has a poor test record of at least 13 known tests, with only two partial successes, since 2016, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), an advocacy group focused on reducing nuclear, biological and emergent technology risks.
The setbacks include a 2019 blast during the botched recovery of an unshielded nuclear reactor allowed to “smolder” on the White Sea floor for a year following a prototype crash, according to State Department reports.
Russia’s state nuclear agency Rosatom said five staff members died during the testing of a rocket on Aug. 8. Putin presented their widows with top state awards, saying the weapon they were developing was without equal in the world, without naming the Burevestnik.
Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russia’s nuclear forces, Lewis, Eveleth, and other experts said it will not add capabilities that Moscow’s nuclear forces already do not have, including the ability to overwhelm U.S. missile defenses.
Moreover, its nuclear-powered engine threatens to disgorge radiation along its flight path and its deployment risks an accident that could contaminate the surrounding region, said Cheryl Rofer, a former U.S. nuclear weapons scientist and other experts.
“The Skyfall is a uniquely stupid weapon system, a flying Chernobyl that poses more threat to Russia than it does to other countries,” agreed Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department official with the Arms Control Association, referring to the 1986 nuclear plant disaster.
NATO did not respond to questions about how the alliance would respond to the weapon’s deployment.
Little publicly is known about the Burevestnik’s technical details.
Experts assess that it would be sent aloft by a small solid-fuel rocket to drive air into an engine containing a miniature nuclear reactor. Superheated and possibly radioactive air would be blasted out, providing forward thrust.
Putin unveiled it in March 2018, saying the missile would be “low flying,” with nearly unlimited range, an unpredictable flight path and “invincible” to current and future defenses.
Many experts are skeptical of Putin’s claims.
The Burevestnik, they say, could have a range of some 15,000 miles (23,000 km) – compared to more than 11,000 miles (17,700 km) for the Sarmat, Russia’s newest ICBM – while its subsonic speed would make it detectable.
“It’s going to be as vulnerable as any cruise missile,” said Kristensen. “The longer it flies, the more vulnerable it becomes because there is more time to track it. I don’t understand Putin’s motive here.”
The Burevestnik’s deployment is not banned by New START, the last U.S.-Russian accord limiting strategic nuclear weapon deployments, which expires in February 2026. A provision allows Washington to request negotiations with Moscow on bringing the Burevestnik under the caps but a State Department spokesperson said no such talks had been sought.
Citing the war in Ukraine, Russia has spurned U.S. calls for unconditional talks on replacing New START, stoking fears of an all-out nuclear arms race when it expires. Podvig said Moscow might use the missile as a bargaining chip if talks ever resume. He called the Burevestnik a “political weapon” that Putin used to bolster his strongman image before his 2018 re-election and to telegraph to Washington that it cannot dismiss his concerns over U.S. missile defenses and other issues. (Source: Reuters)
03 Sep 34. Mongolia-Russia: Visit by Russian president will likely bolster bilateral economic, energy ties. On 2 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia) for a state visit. There is reportedly a heavy police presence in the city at the time of writing. Mongolia is legally obliged to arrest Putin and to hand him over to the International Criminal Court (ICC), as it is a signatory of the Rome Statute. However, we assess there is a remote chance of this happening. Mongolia has close ties with Russia, on which it relies for 95% of its petroleum products. The two sides are expected to discuss a proposed new gas pipeline (Power of Siberia 2) that aims to transport Russian gas to China through Mongolia. The pipeline’s construction is increasingly in doubt, as it was not part of the Mongolian government’s five-year development plan released last month, while China and Russia reportedly disagree on gas prices. However, we assess the two sides will likely sign separate economic and energy agreements, which will marginally boost Mongolia’s energy security and socio-economic health. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Sep 24. Gabon: Draft constitution will elevate governance concerns, possibility of unrest around referendum. On 31 August, ministers presented the draft constitution to the transitional president, General Brice Oligui Nguema, prior to its submission to the parliament by 10 September. Following parliamentary approval, it will be submitted to a referendum before January 2025. The new constitution would abolish the role of prime minister and further empower the president, who would be elected to a seven-year term with powers to dissolve the parliament. There is a realistic possibility that the opposition will perceive the enshrinement of presidential authority as a means to enable Nguema to consolidate power following his likely election as president in the upcoming polls (to be held before August 2025). In addition to the constitution’s protection of members of the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI), we assess this will increase concerns over future governance risks following a return to civilian rule, moderately raising unrest risks ahead of the referendum. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Sep 24. Azerbaijan: Results of parliamentary elections have likely ensured continuity, minimising policy risks. Preliminary election results released earlier on 2 September indicated that the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) will retain its parliamentary majority following snap elections on 1 September. Azerbaijan’s Central Electoral Commission announced that YAP won 68 seats out of 125 in the country’s parliament, while pro-government parties gained the vast majority of the remaining seats. Members of the Azerbaijani opposition reported instances of electoral violations during the ballot, including carousel voting. The turnout at the elections totalled just over 37%. The turnout was higher in the February 2020 parliamentary elections, when almost 47% of Azerbaijanis allegedly cast their vote. As such, the low turnout likely reflects growing political apathy in Azerbaijan. Although YAP held 69 seats in the outgoing parliament, the party was almost certain to retain its position as the dominant parliamentary faction given the lack of political pluralism and repression. As such, we assess that major policy risks are unlikely following the vote; the likelihood of domestic unrest is also low. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Aug 24. Philippines-Vietnam: ‘Hedging’ strategy is likely to persist despite new defence pact. Earlier on 30 August, the Philippines and Vietnam signed a defence co-operation agreement during a visit by Vietnamese Defence Minister Phan Van Giang to the Philippines. The agreement was signed amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea, where both countries oppose China’s territorial claims. Although Vietnam and the Philippines have overlapping claims in the Spratly Islands, they have recently stepped up their security co-operation, as highlighted by their first joint coast guard exercises in August. This defence pact builds on agreements made in January to strengthen coast guard collaboration and prevent incidents in the South China Sea, though the specifics of the new pact have yet to be disclosed. Despite developing closer ties with the Philippines, we assess that Vietnam is likely to maintain its ‘hedging’ strategy in the region. On 18 August, the new General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, To Lam, visited China, underscoring Vietnam’s commitment to balancing its relationships with both China and Western-aligned countries in the region. (Source: Sibylline)
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