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15 Aug 24. Australian Defence Infrastructure Panel to push accelerated delivery, closer industry collaboration. A Defence Infrastructure Panel will be established to accelerate delivery of National Defence Strategy priorities and produce closer industry collaboration.
The panel, to be established by Defence for major construction projects at or above $200m, was outlined in a recent AusTender statement regarding “AZ6546 Defence Infrastructure Panel – Major Construction 2025–2030”.
Published on 30 July, responses will close on 17 September.
“A Defence Infrastructure Panel will enable accelerated delivery of the National Defence Strategy priorities and produce closer industry collaboration. This panel will also comply with the Commonwealth Procurement Rules and generate value for money outcomes,” according to the AusTender documents.
“The panel will require contractors with demonstrated capabilities, skills, qualifications, depth of resources and experience to deliver major construction and capital facilities works to Commonwealth projects and locations within Australia on an ‘as-needs’ basis.
“The panel is being established to support the efficient procurement and delivery of projects valued at or above $200m. The tender documents will detail the types of works that may be sought from contractors under the panel.”
Defence is anticipating ongoing and significant requirement for the delivery of major construction projects to support the Commonwealth’s defence capability and sustainment requirements following the release of the 2023 Defence Strategic Review, the 2024 National Defence Strategy, and the 2024 Integrated Investment Program. Successful tenderers are anticipated to be appointed to the panel in February 2025. The initial term of the panel ends five years after commencement of the term and is subject to the Commonwealth exercising options to extend for up to a further three additional years. (Source: Defence Connect)
15 Aug 24. US intelligence analyst charged with leaking F-22, B-52, HIMARS, missile defence data to China. Following investigations by US Army Counterintelligence and the FBI, soldier and intelligence analyst for the US Army Korbein Schultz was arrested in March.
He was charged with conspiracy to obtain and disclose national defence information alongside several other charges after he conspired with a Hong Kong-based individual, believed to be a Chinese government agent, to share national defence data for financial gain which he was able to access through his position in the US Army.
According to the investigation, which began in June 2022, Schultz was paid US$42,000 for “dozens of sensitive and restricted US military documents regarding a variety of US military weapons systems and US military tactics and strategy, including documents containing export-controlled technical data,” according to the US Department of Justice.
The alleged Chinese government agent was delivered 11 different types of confidential information before being arrested, which included information on the war in Ukraine and how lessons of the conflict would shape the US defence of Taiwan, Air Force tactics and procedures relating to a number of aircraft including the F-22A, the HH-60, the U-2 and the B-52, documents relating to Chinese military tactics, data on rocket missile and artillery weapons systems, information regarding military exercises in the Philippines and the Republic of Korea, documents relating to the deployment of US soldiers in Eastern Europe to aid in NATO operations and more.
“This soldier swore an oath to faithfully discharge his duties, to include protecting national defence information,” said Brigadier General Rhett R. Cox.
“Not only did he fail in his sworn duty, but he placed personal gain above his duty to our country and disclosed information that could give advantage to a foreign nation, putting his fellow soldiers in jeopardy.
“The US is governed by the rule of law and when persons placed in a position of trust violate that trust, the FBI and our partners will hold them accountable.
“Governments like China are aggressively targeting our military personnel and national security information and we will do everything in our power to ensure that information is safeguarded from hostile foreign governments.” (Source: Defence Connect)
16 Aug 24. Paetongtarn elected Thailand’s youngest PM, faces baptism of fire.
- Summary
- Daughter of divisive tycoon Thaksin wins two-thirds backing
- Paetongtarn will become Thailand’s second female PM
- Thai politics rocked by recent court rulings
- Paetongtarn a big gamble at a critical juncture, analysts say
- Challenge for PM to jumpstart economy, recoup support
Thailand’s parliament elected political neophyte Paetongtarn Shinawatra as its youngest prime minister on Friday, only a day after she was thrust into the spotlight amid an unrelenting power struggle between the country’s warring elites.
The 37-year-old daughter of divisive political heavyweight Thaksin Shinawatra sailed through a house vote and now faces a baptism of fire, just two days after ally Srettha Thavisin was dismissed as premier by a judiciary central to Thailand’s two decades of intermittent turmoil.
At stake for Paetongtarn could be the legacy and political future of the billionaire Shinawatra family, whose once unstoppable populist juggernaut suffered its first election defeat in over two decades last year, and had to do a deal with its bitter enemies in the military to form a government.
She will become Thailand’s second female prime minister and the third Shinawatra to take the top job after aunt Yingluck Shinawatra, and father Thaksin, the country’s most influential and polarising politician.
Paetongtarn won easily with 319 votes, or nearly two-thirds of the house. She was not present in parliament and watched the vote from her Pheu Thai Party’s headquarters.
Her first public comment on the win was posting on Instagram a picture of her lunch – chicken rice – with the caption: “The first meal after listening to the vote.”
Paetongtarn has never served in government and decision to put her in play is a roll of the dice for her Pheu Thai and its 75-year-old figurehead Thaksin.
She will immediately face challenges on multiple fronts, with the economy floundering, competition from a rival party growing, and Pheu Thai’s popularity dwindling, having yet to deliver on its flagship cash handout programme worth 500bn baht ($14.25bn).
“The Shinawatras’ gambit here is risky,” said Nattabhorn Buamahakul, Managing Partner at government affairs consultancy, Vero Advocacy.
“It puts Thaksin’s daughter in the crosshairs and a vulnerable position.”
HOSTILE CLIMATE
The fall of Srettha after less than a year in office will be a stark reminder of the kind of hostility Paetongtarn could face, with Thailand trapped in a tumultuous cycle of coups and court rulings that have disbanded political parties and toppled multiple governments and prime ministers.
The Shinawatras and their business allies have borne the brunt of the crisis, which pits parties with mass appeal against a powerful nexus of conservatives, old money families and royalist generals with deep connections in key institutions.
Nine days ago, the same court that dismissed Srettha over a cabinet appointment also dissolved the anti-establishment Move Forward Party – the 2023 election winner – over a campaign to amend a law against insulting the crown, which it said risked undermining the constitutional monarchy.
The hugely popular opposition, Pheu Thai’s biggest challenger, has since regrouped under a new vehicle, People’s Party.
The upheaval in the past few days also indicates a breakdown in a fragile truce struck between Thaksin and his rivals in the establishment and military old guard, which had enabled the tycoon’s dramatic return from 15 years of self-exile in 2023 and ally Srettha to become premier the same day.
Thaksin’s gamble on Paetongtarn at such a critical juncture surprised many analysts, who expected him to delay his dynasty and avoid exposing his daughter to the type of battles that led to the downfall of himself and sister Yingluck, who both fled overseas to avoid jail after their governments were ousted by the military.
“This is a big bet for Thaksin. There is a possibility for her to fail and that is a big risk for the entire Shinawatra dynasty,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.
“If she can’t bring the economy back and bring the party back then it could be the end because the People’s Party is gaining more momentum after their dissolution.” ($1 = 35.1000 baht) (Source: Reuters)
15 Aug 24. Kiribati: Further alignment with China is possible after president retains parliamentary seat. On 14 August, citizens in Kiribati voted in the first round of parliamentary elections. President Taneti Maamu and opposition leader Tessie Lambourne both retained their seats in the House of Assembly. The authorities will hold the second round of voting on 19 August for all parliamentary seats not won by a majority. A national popular vote for president will take place in September or October, with only sitting members of the House of Assembly eligible to be a candidate. Under Maaumu, Kiribati cut ties with Taiwan and resumed diplomatic relations with China in 2019. Since then, it has significantly improved ties with China, sparking concern in Australia and the US about China’s growing influence in the region. Kiribati occupies a strategic position in the Pacific Ocean close to Hawaii and holds an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that covers more than 1.35 m square miles (3.5 m sq km). In February, the US warned about the ‘potential implications’ of Kiribati’s security agreement with China, amid reports that Chinese police forces were operating in the country. We assess that China will likely seek to expand its influence in Kiribati regardless of the election result, driving regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Aug 24. Taliban Marks Third Anniversary of Power with Celebration at Bagram Air Base. On Wednesday, the Taliban commemorated the third anniversary of their return to power with a large celebration at Bagram Air Base, a former U.S. military hub in Afghanistan. The event featured a military parade showcasing equipment left by U.S. and NATO forces, including helicopters, Humvees, and tanks.
Taliban leaders, including Deputy Prime Minister Maulvi Abdul Kabir, delivered speeches emphasizing their accomplishments over the past three years, particularly the enforcement of Islamic law and the establishment of a military system intended to provide “peace and security.” The rhetoric was largely aimed at an international audience, with appeals for the Afghan diaspora to return and for Western nations to engage with the Taliban government.
Despite the grandeur of the event, it was overshadowed by the continued hardships facing many Afghans, especially women, who were barred from participating in the celebrations. Female journalists were also excluded from covering the event.
The gathering at Bagram Air Base was the largest and most assertive public display by the Taliban since they regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021. The event drew around 10,000 men, including senior Taliban officials and foreign diplomats. However, the Taliban government remains unrecognized internationally, and Afghanistan continues to grapple with severe economic and humanitarian challenges. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
14 Aug 24. Thailand: Constitutional Court’s removal of prime minister will drive government stability risks. Earlier on 14 August, Thailand’s Constitutional Court disqualified Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin by a 5:4 vote for appointing Pichit Chuenban (a former lawyer with a criminal record) to his cabinet. The ruling led to the immediate dissolution of Srettha’s cabinet. Nevertheless, cabinet members will remain in caretaker roles, while Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai is set to become the caretaker prime minister. Srettha’s dismissal comes as Thailand faces economic challenges; it raises the likelihood of further political instability, particularly following the recent dissolution of the popular Move Forward Party (MFP). Given the outcome of the ruling and Srettha’s low approval ratings, we assess it is likely that the populist Pheu Thai Party will consider alternative candidates rather than re-nominate Srettha. Possible alternatives include Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter, and Chaikasem Nitisiri, a Pheu Thai MP, as well as figures from coalition partners (most likely Anuntin Charnviralkul from the Bhumjaithai party). The new prime minister will need the support of more than half the lower house’s 493 members; if no candidate secures this majority, further rounds of voting will be required. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Aug 24. Ethiopia-Somalia: Sustained heightened bilateral tensions will threaten regional stability. On 13 August, a second round of Turkish-mediated talks between Ethiopia and Somalia over a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Addis Ababa and Somaliland in January ended without a deal. If ratified, the MoU would allow Ethiopia to access the Red Sea port of Berbera (Somaliland) in return for its official recognition of Somaliland, violating Somalia’s national sovereignty. Although Turkey claims that progress was made during talks, the success of the third round of negotiations, scheduled for 17 September, will likely depend on Somalia’s capacity to offer a credible alternative maritime solution (a limited prospect given the ongoing security challenges). Persistent tensions will undermine Ethiopian military support in Somalia, possibly impeding co-operation on counter-insurgency operations against al-Shabaab. We assess that this would increase al-Shabaab’s capacity to resecure territory in central Somalia, driving the threat of attacks facing the capital Mogadishu. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Aug 24. Iraq: Ethnic tensions, domestic unrest risks are elevated in Kirkuk following election of new governor. On 13 August, hundreds of Arab and Turkmen protesters gathered in Kirkuk (Kirkuk governorate) to demonstrate against the formation of the new local government. They called on Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed al-Sudani to intervene. This comes days after nine Kirkuk Provincial Council members met in the capital Baghdad and elected Rebwar Taha, a member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), as Kirkuk’s governor. Turkmen protesters claim they have been excluded from the local government through the selection of Taha, while Arabs consider him to be a divisive figure. Protests against Taha are likely to persist in the coming days, elevating ethnic tensions in Kirkuk. We assess that these protests are likely to be moderate in scale; they will likely occur during evening hours outside the Kirkuk governorate building, triggering localised mobility disruption. The security forces will likely continue to augment their posture around the building and in major squares in Kirkuk, elevating bystander risks in these areas (as clashes with protesters remain possible). (Source: Sibylline)
13 Aug 24. Lancet-E munition, helicopters, robotic platforms debut at Russia’s Army 2024 conference. The latest weapons and weapon systems developed by Russian defence manufacturers are currently on show at the 10th anniversary “Army 2024” International Military-Technical Forum.
Army 2024 is held at Patriot Exhibition and Convention Center in Moscow from 12 to 14 August.
The forum reportedly gathers official military delegations from 83 countries to inspect more than 1,000 businesses and organisations from Russia and other countries, showcasing military and dual-use products, models and information.
Of particular importance this year is the addition of a Lancet-E loitering munition system, Sprut upgraded light amphibious tank, MGTT-LB robotic multipurpose tracked transporter, Spartak and Tigr-M SpN wheeled armoured vehicles equipped with unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as the KA-52 combat scout helicopter with pilot ejection system and Z-ASPN Titan ballistic, mine protected armoured combat vehicle.
The forum also features a display of destroyed Western vehicles, including tanks and armoured vehicles from America, Australia, the United Kingdom, France, Ukraine, and Germany, among others.
“We treasure our partnerships and are committed to developing them by working together with others in order to ensure equal and indivisible security and build a new, fairer multipolar world order,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an opening address to the Army 2024 International Military-Technical Forum.
“We can see that our commitment to promoting constructive cooperation has resonated with others who were sincere and proactive in their positive response. This year, dozens of countries sent their high-level delegations to Russia, led by heads of their defence agencies. Over 120 foreign companies registered to take part in the event.
“In addition to this, we offered several foreign exhibitions an opportunity to set up their stands at the forum.
“The forum’s agenda includes grand-scale presentations of the most advanced and largely unique and unrivalled achievements of Russia’s defence manufacturers and its leading, internationally acclaimed corporations. This includes over 240 export versions of weapons, as well as all kinds of military and specialised hardware.
“Let me emphasise that many of Russia’s advanced, unique and innovative solutions have already proven their worth on the battlefield. Moreover, we improve their basic performance all the time. Designers, engineers, scientists and teams working at defence manufacturing plants have been proactive in their efforts to take into account the combat experience we acquired during the special military operation.
“It is also essential that small businesses, the civil society and patriotic organisations, as well as a massive volunteer movement and the people of Russia in general have all gone to great lengths and have been proactive in supporting the defence industry in the interests of the Russian Army and Navy.
“Priorities in terms of these joint efforts include modern gear, communications, protection and electronic warfare means, unmanned systems and artificial intelligence.
“I have no doubt that this event will help strengthen the existing ties and forge new ones by signing mutually beneficial contracts with Russia’s Defence Ministry and defence industry enterprises.
“It can also enhance the effectiveness of our cooperation with our close and friendly countries on security matters and in terms of defending our national interests. I wish the participants in this forum every success and all the best.”
The export-ready Lancet-E loitering munition system is reportedly expected to be a major success from the show and deliver at least 1,000 orders from state-owned defence exporter Rosoboronexport, a subsidiary of Rostec.
Also being marketed is a Kub-E loitering munition manufactured by Rostec’s Kalashnikov Group, alongside Orlan-10E, Orlan-30 and Orion-E reconnaissance and reconnaissance/strike unmanned aerial systems.
JSC Kalashnikov chairman Alan Lushnikov has also reportedly confirmed the company is currently working to integrate Vikhr anti-tank missiles onto unmanned aerial vehicles. Russia’s Vikhr guided missiles have already seen heavy use on KA52 helicopters against Ukraine.
In other news at the show, Ruselectronics, a subsidiary of Rostec, is presenting a Lemma satellite radio station designed to be compactly installed on vehicles and provide communications with a phased antenna array in the field.
“We have prepared about 1,000 exhibits, including weapons samples in almost all key segments: from combat aircraft and artillery systems to communications equipment and small arms. Of course, there will be a number of new products,” said Rostec first deputy CEO Vladimir Artyakov, speaking to RIA Novosti about new products, including a new version of the Pantsir air defence system.
“I would like to mention the newest air defence system ‘Pantsir-SMD-E’ … a pure anti-aircraft missile system.
“There will also be a premiere of two ground robotic platforms … this is very promising combat equipment. It will be possible to see the small-sized wheeled robot ‘Depesha’. Its advantages include various control options – both via radio and wires. The drone can be used as a vehicle, a carrier of appropriate weapons systems or as a kamikaze drone.
“Another new product is the universal remote-controlled platform ‘Caracal’. This is a tracked vehicle, on which various modules can be installed. In one version, ‘Caracal’ is equipped with a missile system for destroying enemy positions, command posts, manpower and armoured vehicles. Such robots will allow flexible execution of fire missions on the battlefield without endangering military personnel.”
In the small arms category, there is a variety of Kalashnikov rifles such as the AK-19 and AK-308, the Kord assault rifle, 5.45mm ADS amphibious assault rifle, 9mm SR.1M semi-automatic pistol, 9mm PP-2000 submachine gun and precision sniper rifles.
The show features a Ka-52E scout and attack helicopter in the aircraft category (with emergency pilot ejection system, as well as new fold-away rotors and wings for the naval version), as well as the Su-35 multipurpose fighter jet, IL-76MD-90A(E) military transport aircraft and a new modernised Mi-24P-1M combat helicopter.
The modified Mi-24P-1M helicopter reportedly uses advanced digital technologies from Ka-52 and Mi-28MN helicopters, an expanded arsenal of long-range weapons, has an installed onboard defence system, and better adaptions for night, low-altitude and adverse weather flying.
A President-S optical-electronic aircraft and helicopter defence system, on show, reportedly counteracts air-to-air missiles, as well as missiles from portable anti-aircraft missile systems. President-S is understood to automatically detect a missile launch and activate passive and active interference in the infrared and radio ranges, which disrupts the operation of the missile’s homing systems and causes it to be redirected to false targets. (Source: Google/Defence Connect)
14 Aug 24. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he will step down in September, ending a three-year term marred by political scandals and paving the way for a new premier to address the impact of rising prices.
“Politics cannot function without public trust,” Kishida said in a press conference on Wednesday to announce his decision not to seek re-election as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader.
“I will now focus on supporting the newly elected LDP leader as a rank-and-file member of the party,” he said.
His decision to quit triggers a contest to replace him as president of the party, and by extension as the leader of the world’s fourth-biggest economy.
Kishida’s public support has been sliding amid revelations about the LDP’s ties to the controversial Unification Church and political donations made at party fundraising events that went unrecorded.
But he also faced public discontent over the failure of wages to keep track with the rising cost of living as the country finally shook off years of deflationary pressure.
“An LDP incumbent prime minister cannot run in the presidential race unless he’s assured of a victory. It’s like the grand champion yokozunas of sumo. You don’t just win, but you need to win with grace,” said Koichi Nakano, political science professor at Sophia University.
Who ever succeeds Kishida as the head of the LDP will have to unite a fractious ruling group and tackle the rising cost of living, escalating geopolitical tensions with China, and the potential return of Donald Trump as U.S. president next year.
COVID TO INFLATION
As the country’s eighth-longest serving post-war leader, Kishida led Japan out of the COVID pandemic with massive stimulus spending. He also appointed Kazuo Ueda as head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), an academic tasked with ending his predecessor’s radical monetary stimulus.
The BOJ in July unexpectedly raised interest rates as inflation took hold, contributing to stock market instability and sending the yen sharply lower.
Kishida’s departure could mean tighter fiscal and monetary conditions depending on the candidate, according to Shoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.
“In short, risk-assets, particularly equities, will likely be hit the most,” he said.
In another break from the past, Kishida also eschewed corporate profit-driven trickle-down economics in favour of policies aimed at boosting household incomes, including wage hikes and promoting share ownership.
DEFENCE SPENDING
Despite that departure on the economy, he stuck with the hawkish security policies of predecessor Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in 2022.
He unveiled Japan’s biggest military buildup since World War Two with a commitment to double defence spending aimed at deterring neighbouring China from pursuing its territorial ambitions in East Asia through military force.
With prodding from Washington, Kishida also mended Japan’s strained relations with South Korea, enabling the two countries and their mutual ally, the U.S., to pursue deeper security cooperation to counter the threat posed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear weapons programs.
“Under Prime Minister Kishida’s steadfast leadership, Japan and the United States have ushered in a new era of relations for the Alliance,” U.S. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. (Source: Reuters)
13 Aug 24. UNSC is “outdated” and needs African representation – Guterres. Addressing the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Monday (12 August) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres criticised it as being “an outdated structure” with a “lack of representation for Africa”.
According to him these undermine the “credibility and global legitimacy” of the UNSC.
He told the 15-member UNSC its composition reflected the balance of power at the end of World War Two (September 1945) and failed to keep pace with a changing world.
“In that year most of today’s African countries were still under colonial rule and had no voice in international affairs.
“We cannot accept that the world’s preeminent peace and security body lacks a permanent voice for a continent of well over a bn people … nor can we accept that Africa’s views are under-valued on questions of peace and security, both on the continent and around the world.”
What was needed to correct what a UN statement said was “an injustice” included heeding longstanding calls from the UN General Assembly (GA), various geographic groups – from the Arab Group to the Benelux, Nordic and CARICOM (Caribbean Community) countries – and some permanent UNSC members.
Turning to his July 2023 policy brief – New Agenda for Peace – Guterres said it was a framework “at the heart of negotiations over the Pact of the Future”. The Pact comes up for adoption at the September Summit of the Future. The summit in New York is billed as a high-level event bringing together world leaders to forge a new international consensus on delivering a better present and safeguarding the future.
He sees the 20 to 23 September Summit as an opportunity to ensure all countries “can meaningfully participate in global governance structures as equals” and urged attendance and contributions “so that African voices are heard, African initiatives are supported and African needs are met”.
The 15-member UNSC includes five permanent members with veto power (the ability to block decisions, even if all other members support the proposal) – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) – with the remaining 10 non-permanent seats allocated regionally.
The regional allocation includes three seats for African States; two each for Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, Western Europe and Other States, and one for Eastern European States.
The question of equitable representation has been on the agenda for several years, including through the General Assembly’s open-ended working group and inter-governmental negotiations.
There has been “some modest reform”, such as the recent automatic convening of a General Assembly debate whenever a veto is cast, aiming to enhance transparency and accountability.
Calls for major reform continue, particularly from underrepresented regions, according to the world body.
Dennis Francis, President of the General Assembly, pointed out that the General Assembly is actively addressing the issue through intergovernmental negotiations, and urged Member States to engage constructively towards substantial reform.
“Our objective is to create solutions, along a well-designed process. And most importantly, to win back the trust and the confidence of ‘we the peoples’ of the United Nations,” he said, recounting the first words of the Preamble of the UN Charter.
“The fact that Africa continues to be manifestly underrepresented on the Security Council is simply wrong, offending as it does both the principles of equity and inclusion,” Francis said. “It runs counter to the principle of sovereign equality of states and calls for the urgency to reform this institution to reflect the world as it is now, rather than what it was nearly 80 years ago.”
Speaking at the UNSC, Sierra Leone President Julius Maada Bio said Africa demands two permanent seats in the UNSC and two additional non-permanent seats.
“The African Union will choose the African permanent members. Africa wants the veto abolished. However, if UN member states wish to retain the veto, it must be extended to all new permanent members as a matter of justice,” he said. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
13 Aug 24. Belarus: Incumbent president is unlikely to relinquish power despite new proposals. On 12 August, a draft law emerged on Belarus’ National Legal Internet Portal proposing the introduction of amendments that would allow punishment for threats and violence against the country’s current and, notably, former presidents. The proposal envisions up to eight years in prison for such offences against current and former leaders of Belarus. While the proposed amendments would theoretically apply to any former Belarusian leader, they are only applicable to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who has ruled over Belarus since 1994. On 10 August, Lukashenka urged citizens to ‘get used to’ the eventuality of Belarus having a new president in the future. However, we assess that it is unlikely that he plans to leave office soon. Lukashenka voiced his intentions in February to seek another term in the 2025 presidential election which he would highly likely secure. As such, the proposed amendments almost certainly aim to safeguard Lukashenka if and when he decides to leave office. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Aug 24. Egypt-Libya: Expulsion of diplomats elevates risks of regional tensions, diplomatic uncertainty. On 11 August, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) gave two Egyptian diplomats 72 hours to leave the country. The decision comes hours after the GNU condemned an official visit from Prime Minister Osama Hamad of the rival Tobruk-based Government where he met the Egyptian Prime Minister. The GNU’s decision further elevates already heightened tensions with Egypt following a recent meeting between the Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and General Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA). Organisers held this meeting days before the LNA launched a major operation to secure the south-western border regions, triggering risks of military confrontation with the GNU. While Egypt has not yet responded, we assess that these recent diplomatic tensions are unlikely to impact the operations of Egyptian companies working in construction and infrastructure sectors in GNU territories over the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Aug 24. Benin-Burkina Faso: Convoy ambush highlights threats to staff, jihadist posture along border. On 8 August, unidentified militants reportedly ambushed a military convoy in Burkina Faso’s Nassougou area (Est region). The incident resulted in dozens of casualties. Although the government has not commented on the attack, the ambush reportedly took place after a supply mission to the Boungou gold mine (Est) as part of broader efforts to re-establish the military’s presence in the area, from which it withdrew in 2019 due to jihadist activity. The al-Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nusrat Al Islam Wal Muslimin (JNIM) almost certainly conducted the attack, highlighting the group’s expanding presence in the nearby Singou Reserve. In the coming weeks, JNIM is highly likely to continue leveraging this position to ambush convoys travelling along nearby roads, including those with security details, increasing the likelihood of attacks and kidnap-for-ransom operations targeting staff during overland movement. We assess that JNIM is also highly likely to expand this position to reinforce its presence in the Bendjari and W National Parks along the Benin-Burkina Faso border, increasing the threat of attacks targeting NGO personnel in northern Benin. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Aug 24. Australia: Nuclear submarine deal will likely raise regional tensions, risk of environmental protests. Earlier on 12 August, Australia announced that it signed an agreement enabling the UK and the US to transfer nuclear secrets and material to build an Australian nuclear-powered submarine fleet. The revamped deal was agreed upon by the three countries last week as part of their AUKUS security pact and was tabled in Australia’s parliament earlier on 12 August. Canberra is expected to spend up to USD 242 bn on the new fleet. The UK and the US can pull out of the agreement (which will remain in force until 2075) with one year’s notice if it poses an ‘unreasonable risk’ to their own military needs. The initiative has proved controversial in Australia, with critics decrying the cost and the environmental impact (Australia will be responsible for disposing of all related nuclear waste). We assess that there is a realistic possibility of environmental protests against AUKUS in the coming years. The deal will also likely undermine Australia’s recent rapprochement with China. In April, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that AUKUS raised ‘serious nuclear proliferation risks’. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Aug 24. Libya: LNA operation in south-west will elevate major security risks, threaten ceasefire agreement. On 9 August, the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar, launched a large-scale operation to secure the country’s south-western border regions. The LNA later added that it would secure several remote oasis towns already under its control across Ghat, Sabha, Murzuq and Wadi al-Shatii districts. However, there is a realistic possibility that the main goal of the operation is to control the strategic town of Ghadames (Nalut district), as well as its airport and the nearby Al-Dabdab border crossing with Algeria. These are all under the control of Tripoli’s Government of National Unity (GNU). While the GNU announced it would repel any attack on its territory, LNA ground forces are still advancing towards the border region. We assess these developments will significantly elevate security risks in south-western Libya in the coming days, threatening to undermine the 2020 ceasefire agreement and possibly triggering a military confrontation around Ghadames. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Aug 24. Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe with nuclear-capable missiles in a potential conflict with Nato, according to secret files seen by the Financial Times. Maps of targets as far-flung as the west coast of France and Barrow-in-Furness in the UK are detailed in a presentation for officers that predates the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The FT has previously reported from the same cache of 29 secret Russian military files that Moscow had rehearsed using tactical nuclear weapons in the early stages of a conflict with a major world power. The latest revelations show how Russia envisioned a conflict with the west reaching well beyond its immediate Nato frontier, planning for a series of overwhelming strikes across western Europe. The documents were shown to the FT by western sources. The files, drawn up between 2008 and 2014, include a target list for missiles that can carry either conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. Russian officers highlight the advantages of using nuclear strikes at an early stage. The presentation also indicates that Russia has retained the capability to carry nuclear weapons on surface ships, a capacity that experts said carries significant extra risks of escalation or accidents. The document notes the navy’s “high manoeuvrability” allows it to conduct “sudden and pre-emptive blows” and “massive missile strikes . . . from various directions”. It adds that nuclear weapons are “as a rule” designated for use “in combination with other means of destruction” to achieve Russia’s goals. Analysts who reviewed the documents said they were consistent with how Nato assessed the threat of long-range missile strikes by the Russian navy and the speed with which Russia would probably resort to nuclear use. The maps, which were made for presentational purposes rather than operational use, illustrate a sample of 32 Nato targets in Europe for Russia’s naval fleets. (Source: FT.com)
09 Aug 24. Tajikistan: Pro-active counter-terrorist posture will possibly sustain separatist sentiment in GBAO. On 8 August, First Deputy Interior Minister Abdurahmon Alamshozoda reported the arrest of 27 residents of the restive Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO). While Alamshozoda did not provide specific dates, the arrests likely occurred in May around the anniversary of the deadly 2022 crackdown in GBAO. The detainees are from the GBAO’s Vanji District, which borders Afghanistan; they are accused of being members of the Ansarullah Islamic group, an Islamist terrorist organisation comprised of Tajik fighters with ties to al-Qaeda and the Taliban. GBAO, is predominantly inhabited by the ethnic-Pamiri minority; it has historically experienced ethno-religious tensions, which have in turn strained relations with Tajikistan’s central government. Following the deadly riots in May 2022, Dushanbe has intensified its crackdown on the Pamiri minority, driving resentment towards the central government. Due to its proximity to Afghanistan, GBAO remains vulnerable to Islamist activity; Islamist groups are likely to exploit local separatist sentiment to recruit militants. We assess that Tajikistan’s ongoing counter-terrorism operations will likely continue to curb Islamist activity, though it will possibly also drive separatist sentiment in the restive GBAO region. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Aug 24. Bangladesh: Formation of interim government will likely partially ease stability risks in short term. On 8 August, 13 members of the interim government were sworn in alongside Muhammad Yunus (who was appointed as its chief adviser) at the presidential palace in the capital Dhaka following the former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation earlier this week. Three members who were not in Dhaka at the time have not yet been sworn in. The members of the interim government include civil society leaders, former bureaucrats, academics and environmentalists, as well as key student protest leaders Nahid Islam and Asif Mahmud. Islam will oversee the Ministry of Posts Telecommunications and Information Technology and Mahmud will head the Ministry of Sports and Youth. The duration of the interim government remains unclear; a timeline for the election has not been announced. Yunus and members of the new government have called for an end to violence and have vowed to introduce structural reforms, which will likely help to fill the political vacuum and mitigate short-term stability risks. However, we assess that low trust in government institutions, the fragile law and order situation and growing economic concerns will continue to pose challenges for the new government. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Aug 24. Thailand: Military establishment will likely crack down on new political party; unrest risks remain low. Earlier on 9 August, all remaining 143 lawmakers of the disbanded opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) joined a new political party. Nathaphong Ruengpanyawut, a 37-year-old lower house member, will lead the new People’s Party (PP). On 7 August, the Constitutional Court ordered the MFP’s dissolution after it proposed amending the lese majeste law, which prohibits criticism of the monarchy. The court banned 11 MFP executives (including the party’s former leader Pita Limjaroenrat) from politics for ten years. The MFP won the most seats in the 2023 general election but was blocked from forming a governing coalition by the then-military-appointed Senate. We assess the military establishment will likely sustain pressure on the PP to deter its reformist agenda. It will possibly ban the party ahead of the next general election (due by 2027). On 8 August, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) stated that it began an investigation into 44 former members of the MFP. There is a realistic possibility that they will be found guilty and banned from contesting in the election. However, we assess that large-scale demonstrations in major cities remain unlikely following the crackdown on the last youth-led protest movement, while the MFP’s leadership has also avoided calling for large-scale protests as they focus on the next election. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Aug 24. Canada, Australia reaffirm commitment to defence partnership.
Joint-capabilities. Australia and Canada have released a joint statement strengthening their defence partnership and exploring new opportunities in the South China Sea.
Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles recently met with Minister of National Defence of Canada Bill Blair to approve the joint statement following their bilateral meeting.
The discussions focused on increased military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, global security, common platforms and capability development, cyber and space.
“We will explore ways to reduce barriers to collaboration, including through arrangements to facilitate value-added defence and industrial activities and to support operational cooperation,” the joint statement said
“We will reinforce collaboration in space, cyber, research and development, advanced capabilities, and science and technology. We remain committed to the Five Eyes partnership.
“We commit to deepen our operational cooperation, including by exploring opportunities to conduct joint sails, cooperative deployments, and multilateral exercises and training.”
Both countries agreed to enhance interoperability through participation in multilateral exercises, including in the South China Sea.
“Australia welcomes the involvement of His Majesty’s Canadian Ship Vancouver in Exercise Kakadu next month, and plans for a follow-on ship re-armament activity, which will demonstrate the ability to provide logistics support to regional operations,” the joint statement said.
“Australia welcomes Canada’s participation in Exercise Talisman Sabre in 2025 and similar future exercises.
“Canada and Australia are concerned by China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea that are inconsistent with international law. We also emphasise the importance of all states’ abilities to exercise rights and freedoms, including freedom of navigation and overflight, in a manner that is consistent with international law, as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
“We reiterate our strong opposition to destabilising or coercive actions in the South China Sea, including dangerous manoeuvres and the militarisation of disputed features. We express grave concern over China’s dangerous actions against Philippine vessels near Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. These actions jeopardise regional peace, stability, and prosperity. We reaffirmed the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award as final and binding on the parties and noted all states have a responsibility to adhere to international law. We are encouraged by the Philippines’ and China’s diplomatic engagement and commitment to de-escalate tensions.”
In addition, both countries will explore opportunities for mutual learning and training to increase the interoperability and skill set of military members on shared platforms, such as the F-35 fighter aircraft, the P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, and new warship classes based on the Type 26 frigate design of BAE Systems. (Source: Defence Connect)
09 Aug 24. UK announces new Belarus sanctions to mark anniversary of sham election.
- UK sanctions 4 individuals and 3 entities from Belarus in coordinated action with international partners, in response to human rights violations and ongoing facilitation of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine
- today marks 4 years since the deeply flawed presidential election and start of the crackdown on civil society
- UK announces £2.5m of planned funding to support the survival of Belarusian human rights and civil society causes in the face of continued political pressure
The UK has today (9 August) sanctioned a further 7 individuals and entities on the fourth anniversary of the deeply flawed 2020 presidential elections in Belarus in coordinated action with international partners, taking the total number of sanctions against Belarus to over 200.
The conduct of the election, which was widely condemned by the international community, sparked widespread peaceful protests across the country. These were met by a brutal campaign of repression and a purging of civil society, independent media and the democratic opposition at the hands of the Lukashenko regime, with political prisoners detained in penal colonies. Commanding officers of 4 of these penal colonies, who have contributed to human rights violations and the repression of civil society, have been hit with UK sanctions today.
Belarus has also provided instrumental support for Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine since it began in 2022. It has allowed the use of its territory and airspace to launch attacks and provided kit and logistical support, with three Belarusian entities in the defence and military industrial sector being added to the UK’s sanction list, preventing them from doing business with UK companies.
Following the designations, Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “Four years on from the brutal scenes we witnessed in Belarus, Lukashenko’s relentless crackdown on civil society has shown no signs of abating: over 40,000 citizens arrested on trumped up political charges, civil society and independent media trampled and a regime with no regard for democracy or human rights. We stand with the people of Belarus and their pursuit of freedom and democracy and call on the regime to release all political prisoners immediately and unconditionally.”
The individuals and entities sanctioned today are:
- Denis Anatolievich TOLSTENKOV: commanding officer of penal colony 4
- Andrei Sergeevich PALCHYK: former commanding officer of penal colony 1
- Filip Vladimirovich STURCHANKA: commanding officer of penal colony 3
- Aleksey Valerievich LAZARENKO: commanding officer of penal colony 15
All 4 individuals are, or have been, responsible for, engaging in, providing support for and promoting the commission of a serious human rights violation, repression of civil society and democratic opposition and actions and activities that undermine democracy and rule of law in Belarus.
- OJSC StankoGomel: a Belarusian machine tool manufacturer exporting goods to Russia for use in the Russian military industrial sector
- JSC NIIEVM: a Government of Belarus affiliated entity carrying on business in the Belarusian defence sector
- Ruchservomotor LLC: a Belarusian machine tool manufacturer exporting goods to Russia for use in the Russian military industrial sector
Alongside sanctions, the UK is announcing planned funding of £2.5 m this financial year to supporting Belarusian human rights and civil society causes, including further funding to the International Accountability Platform Belarus – a coalition that collect, verify, and preserve evidence of gross human rights violations constituting crimes under international law allegedly committed by Belarusian authorities.
Since August 2020, the Belarusian authorities have made over 40,000 politically motivated arrests and pursued at least 12,000 politically motivated criminal cases. According to the Viasna Human Rights Centre, a Belarusian non-governmental organisation, 1389 political prisoners remain incarcerated in Belarus, including human rights defenders, journalists, members of the democratic opposition and trade unionists.
At least 6 political prisoners have died in detention since 2021, while many others remain held in appalling conditions, subject to violence, deprived of medical attention and starved of contact with the outside world. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
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