NEWS IN BRIEF – REST OF THE WORLD

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09 Aug 24. Brazilian Army’s First Mobile Brigade Combat Team Prepares for JRTC. The Army’s first mobile brigade combat team will be put through its paces in August as it heads to the Joint Readiness Training Center at Fort Johnson, Louisiana.

Equipped with new capabilities such as the Infantry Squad Vehicle, the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault)’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team is part of the service’s transforming in contact effort, an Army chief of staff initiative to accelerate the Army’s transformation for the future fight.

Just as the Army adapted to address the emerging needs of the fight in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is now evolving for large-scale combat operations, Maj. Gen. Brett Sylvia, commanding general of the 101st Airborne Division, said earlier this year.

“The 101st has been one of two divisions to test and prototype the Army’s near-term transformation efforts,” he said. “We’re doing that by introducing the mobile brigade combat team and integrating various technologies to increase lethality and survivability on the future battlefield.”

In addition to designating the 2nd Brigade as the mobile brigade combat team, the division also has “embarked on a multiyear campaign to build a unique capability” for combatant commanders and the Army, he said.

In May, the 2nd Brigade completed its first comprehensive field assessment, called Operation Lethal Eagle, in its new form, Sylvia said. The 21-day exercise involved the entire division and included a large-scale, long-range air assault, he said. (Source: Paulo Dominonni via LinkedIn)

 

08 Aug 24. “We cannot lose focus in the fight against Daesh”: UK statement at the UN Security Council.

Security Council Statement by Jess Jambert-Gray, Deputy Political Coordinator, at the UN Security Council meeting on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

The UK remains deeply concerned about the rising threat from Daesh and its affiliates. Whilst Daesh has been unable to resurge territorially it continues to propagate its poisonous ideology globally. Its branches present an acute threat to at-risk communities, whilst its propaganda seeks to exploit global events to inspire terrorist violence across the world.

The increasing threat from Daesh’s continued focus on Africa, including attacks from Daesh affiliates ISWAP and ISSP in West Africa and the Sahel threatens regional stability. As the Secretary General’s report notes, their activities in the region afflict grave violations on children, and in particular girls. This Council’s recent decision to include sexual and gender-based violence as a criterion for listing under the 1267 regime sends a strong message that these crimes should not go unpunished.

The development of African-led initiatives like the Abuja Process are a crucial response. Working closely with Regional Economic Communities and with the support of UN entities, the African Union plays a central role in these efforts. The Malabo declaration for a whole-of-government and a whole-of-society approach to tackling terrorism was a positive step forward and we stand ready to support the development of national action plans. It is vital these collective approaches work to address the underlying drivers of terrorism including reducing corruption, improving governance, and ensuring respect for the rule of law.

The threat from ISKP is increasing, and in recent months we have seen abhorrent attacks by the group on civilians in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Russia and Turkey. This emphasises our need to tackle ISKP at a strategic level. The international community must take a collective and creative approach to understand how they operate, starve their resources, and tackle their propaganda.

As part of this effort, the UK launched the ISKP Diplomatic Grouping in May 2023 to focus on increasing threats with regional partners. The Grouping most recently convened in Doha last month to share expertise and drive action on countering ISKP finance, travel, and propaganda.

Attacks on military bases in Iraq are increasing tensions across the Middle East, causing instability and threatening Iraq’s and the coalition’s collective ability to counter Daesh. De-escalation should be a collective priority, and we call for continued work with partners to suppress the threat.

As we mark ten years since Daesh perpetrated genocide against the Yazidi people, we cannot lose focus in the fight against Daesh as it spreads to new theatres. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

08 Aug 24. Mexico-US: Dismissal of lawsuit against arms manufacturers will decrease compliance risks. On 7 August, a US judge dismissed much of Mexico’s USD 10 bn lawsuit aiming to hold firearms manufacturers responsible for facilitating the trafficking of guns to Mexican cartels. The judge dismissed claims against six of the eight companies due to the case’s weak connection to Massachusetts, where Mexico filed the case. The Mexican authorities allege that over 500,000 firearms are trafficked from the US every year, with over 68% manufactured by the eight companies involved in the lawsuit. Mexico indicated that it would not drop the lawsuit despite the setback. Instead, it will continue to fight in appeals and other courts if necessary. In the short term, the dismissal will likely decrease compliance risks for arms manufacturers. However, Mexico’s commitment to fighting the case will sustain reputational risks for such businesses in the long term. Furthermore, we assess that the dismissal will likely marginally increase bilateral tensions between Mexico and the US. (Source: Sibylline)

 

08 Aug 24. Burkina Faso: Alleged coup plot highlights government stability, security force capacity risks. On 6 August, Transition President Ibrahim Traoré announced the ‘recent’ arrests of several high-ranking military personnel accused of planning a coup, including a former counter-terrorism commander. The military government previously claimed to have disrupted coup attempts in January and September 2023. Repeated coup allegations reflect the junta’s heightened anxiety over threats to its stability amid worsening security conditions. In the coming months, the junta will highly likely continue purging high-ranking individuals within the security forces to moderate the risks of successful coups. While these measures will possibly reduce critical threats to government stability in the short term, they will also likely undermine the security forces’ capacity to combat numerous insurgent groups active in Burkina Faso, including regional al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) affiliates. As such, security conditions will almost certainly continue deteriorating, elevating attack risks in rural areas across Burkina Faso. Additionally, we assess that media outlets and staff will face elevated risks of harassment and detention as the junta attempts to limit coverage of potential threats to its stability. (Source: Sibylline)

 

08 Aug 24. Australia: Shipyard strikes will drive submarine maintenance delays, affect operational readiness. On 7 August, workers at Australian state-owned submarine builder ASC Ltd began a four-day strike. This industrial action involves approximately 350 workers at the Osborne Naval Shipyard in South Australia state. Industrial action has been ongoing since May and has caused significant delays in maintenance work on two of Australia’s six Collins-class submarines. Workers are demanding pay parity with their counterparts in Western Australia state. This industrial action leaves only half of the navy’s fleet operational, with three submarines out of service for the rest of 2024. The strike affects the AUD 2.2 bn (USD 1.4 bn) federal contract to extend the submarines’ operational life until the 2030s when they will be replaced by nuclear-powered Virginia Class submarines under the AUKUS pact. The reduction in operational submarines and delays in maintenance due to prolonged strikes could moderately hamper Australia’s ability to conduct maritime surveillance missions and reduce its operational readiness in the context of increasing regional tensions. Additionally, we assess that industrial action in Australia will likely remain a persistent issue given the cost-of-living concerns. (Source: Sibylline)

 

08 Aug 24. Sri Lanka: Nomination of controversial candidate will complicate presidential race, drive policy risks. On 7 August, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party reportedly nominated Namal Rajapaksa as its candidate for the upcoming presidential election on 21 September. Rajapaksa, the nephew of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled the country after widespread protests in 2022, and son of former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, will face President Ranil Wickremesinghe at the polls. Wickremesinghe is contesting as an independent non-party candidate since the SLPP has not officially endorsed him. Namal will also compete with Sajith Premadasa and AK Dissanayake of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and National People’s Power (NPP) opposition parties respectively. They are currently leading the polls. Namal has indicated that he will hold talks with the 92 parliamentarians who recently declared support for Wickremesinghe, which will likely cause further divisions within the SLPP. He also stated that he intends to ‘work around’ some of the requirements of the IMF programme, which will likely pose risks to the country’s economic recovery. Given the controversy around his family, which is widely viewed as responsible for the country’s financial crisis and subsequent default in 2022, we assess that Namal is unlikely to be the favourite. However, the increasingly crowded field and ranked electoral system will drive further uncertainty around the election result.  (Source: Sibylline)

 

08 Aug 24. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Relaxation of territorial claim will thaw regional tensions. Reports from 7 August indicate that Azerbaijan has agreed to remove its demand to establish the contentious Zangezur corridor as a condition for a peace agreement. The territorial demand envisioned establishing a transit corridor connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan exclave via southern Armenia. The corridor has been presented as a key element of Azerbaijan’s strategy to reinforce its regional geoeconomic footprint by enhancing trade connectivity with its exclave and its ally, Turkey. Due to the strategic importance of the route, the Azerbaijani government has repeatedly insisted on the establishment of the corridor, even threatening to do so by force. The state’s decision to relax its stance on the corridor will improve regional tensions, which have been heightened by an uptick in reported border skirmishes. However, Azerbaijan still demands that Armenia remove an indirect reference in its constitution to the independence of the once-breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. We assess that, given the challenges associated with amending the constitution, this demand remains a significant obstacle to the peace process. (Source: Sibylline)

 

08 Aug 24. US aircraft rotations Down Under to increase following AUSMIN discussion. Australia will receive more frequent rotations of US military aircraft under new agreements from the 2024 Australia-US Ministerial Consultations meeting.

Rotations of bombers, fighter aircraft, and Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft will be increased, according to a joint statement made by the two governments on 7 August.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Australian counterparts Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles and Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong in Annapolis, Maryland, for the 34th AUSMIN on 6 August.

“The United States continues to conduct more frequent rotational deployments to Australia across air, land, and maritime domains, including across northern Australia,” according to the joint statement.

“Furthering our Enhanced Air Cooperation, the United States will continue frequent rotations of bombers, fighter aircraft, and maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, building on previous rotations at RAAF Bases Amberley, Darwin, and Tindal.

“The United States and Australia continue to enhance the complexity and duration of regular rotations of US Army watercraft to Australia in furtherance of maritime and land cooperation, to increase interoperability, and enable regional engagement, including for humanitarian assistance and disaster response.

“During Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025, the United States and Australia plan to integrate new capabilities and test new operating assumptions, including through amphibious training activities at Shoalwater Bay. Seventeen nations have been invited to participate at next year’s exercise, which will be conducted across the breadth of Australia.

“(Both countries support) continuing to progress infrastructure investments at key Australian bases in the north, including RAAF Bases Darwin and Tindal. Adding new locations for force posture cooperation, including RAAF Base Learmonth, as well as expanding ongoing infrastructure work at RAAF Bases Scherger and Curtin.

“(The US welcome) Australia’s planned infrastructure upgrades at Cocos (Keeling) Island … (and) progress on the development of an air-launched hypersonic weapon under the Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment (SCIFiRE) and supporting the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM) flight test program.

“The principals welcomed continuing collaborative efforts to develop and demonstrate an air-launched hypersonic weapon under the Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment. Australia and the United States continue to make significant progress in design and ground testing, supporting the bilateral flight test program of Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile. Looking forward, the United States and Australia are working towards expanding this deep collaboration and transitioning the partnership on SCIFiRE and HACM to a fielded combat capability. Australia will consider HACM as a potential pathway to field its first air-launched hypersonic weapon.” (Source: Defence Connect)

 

08 Aug 24. Safety blanket gone as Australia faces most challenging period since 1945, says Conroy. Australia’s 10-year safety blanket is gone and the nation now faces the most challenging period since 1945, Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery Pat Conroy said in recent comments.

The Minister for International Development and the Pacific spoke candidly with defence industry representatives at the Defence Connect Defence Industry Development Strategy (DIDS) Summit 2024 on 6 August.

Minister Conroy said the nation now faces seismic changes to keep pace with evolving challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

“The entire defence of Australia since 1945 has been based on us having superior military capabilities than our immediate neighbours and a 10-year warning horizon for a major conflict. That second part has evaporated. That means that we can’t rely on a 10-year warning, which means we have to act with urgency,” he said.

“We have to concentrate on accelerating delivery of capability as well as the long-term investments that we need. And part of that recognition by this government is both my elevation to cabinet and my new title.

“I’m no longer just defence industry; I’m defence industry and capability and delivery because that urgency has to be reflected in responsibilities.

“Obviously, my elevation to cabinet brings more resources to address both portfolios, which is obviously a good thing. But I think that it was a conscious decision by the Prime Minister to give me both. And I work very closely with Richard Marles as the senior cabinet minister in Defence and I think we’ve got a great team.”

Minister Conroy was promoted into federal cabinet under a series of ministerial arrangements earlier this year. Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese announced the changes to the cabinet and to the ministry on 28 July.

Under changes to security and defence industry, former assistant minister for defence Matt Thistlethwaite has been moved to a role as assistant minister for immigration.

Luke Gosling was appointed special envoy for defence, veterans’ affairs and Northern Australia.

“We face the biggest strategic uncertainty since 1945,” said Minister Conroy, speaking at the summit on 6 August.

“We face the greatest arms build-up in our region since 1945. We face, as the National Defence Strategy said, a rising global power that hasn’t provided the normal strategic reassurance and transparency that you would hope from a global power. And we need to work through those issues.

“I’ve been a full member of the National security committee for cabinet for two years now and it is true, we face deteriorating strategic circumstances and it is the most challenging time since 1945.

“Even more challenging than the height of the Cold War… (because) this is the first time we’ve lost the 10-year warning.

“That was the safety blanket for governments of all persuasions, that knowledge that we had 10 years to gear up for a major regional conflict. That has gone and that requires a revolution in how we do defence procurement and how we resource Defence. And the DPM and I are leading that revolution. We’ve been backed by every member of the NSC, as demonstrated by that $50 bn budget increase.

“Over the decade in real terms, we’re increasing the Defence budget by 20 per cent in real terms. That is a massive increase in the budget and we’re increasing speed, because the whole government is focused on that.

“We’re focused on what we can do and we think that a 20 per cent real increase will deliver a much more capable Australian Defence Force than the one we’ve got now, as good as it is now.”

Minister Conroy reaffirmed his confidence in the AUKUS trilateral military pact with the United Kingdom and the United States.

“AUKUS is a multi-decade commitment by three countries and all three countries have committed to it because it’s all in our national interests,” he said.

“It enhances the defence of all three countries and it will outlast governments of all persuasions. It’s already outlasted two changes of government – one in Australia and one in the United Kingdom and it hasn’t missed beat.

“I would argue that AUKUS has been accelerated due to the change of government here. And in the United States there is a genuine bipartisan commitment to AUKUS. I’ll give you an example.

“I was in Washington for the vote on the four pieces of critical AUKUS legislation associated with the National Defence Authorization Act in December last year. That passed the Senate with an 80 per cent yes vote. It passed the House of Representatives with a 75 per cent yes vote. To get anything through the US system with an 80 per cent yes vote is a huge achievement and demonstrates the strong bipartisanship of this program.

“AUKUS enhances the three countries. This is about growing the collective industrial base of three countries so that we go in AUKUS Pillar I from having three submarine construction yards capable of building nuclear submarines to four. It’s about enhancing the defence capability of all three countries. It is genuinely in the United States’ self-interest and it also complements what we’re doing. So, I’ve got no concerns at all.” (Source: Defence Connect)

 

08 Aug 24. South Korean nuclear weapons would fracture US ties, defence chief says. South Korea could rupture its U.S. alliance and shock financial markets if it started building nuclear weapons, Defence Minister Shin Won-sik told Reuters, dismissing renewed domestic calls for the country’s own arsenal to deter North Korea.

As the neighbouring North rapidly expands nuclear and missile capabilities, more South Korean officials and members of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative ruling party have called in recent months for developing nuclear weapons.

The prospect of another term for former U.S. President Donald Trump, who complained about the cost of the U.S. military presence in South Korea and launched unprecedented talks with the North, has further fuelled the debate.

But Shin, a former three-star army general who also served as a lawmaker in Yoon’s party, said having a homegrown nuclear arsenal risked devastating fallout to the South’s diplomatic standing and economy, akin to what analysts called Black Monday this week for the stock market’s worst losses since 2008.

“You’ll face a huge crack in the U.S. alliance, and if we withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, it would bring various penalties, starting with an immediate shock in our financial market,” he said in an interview.

Shin acknowledged that the debate among politicians and foreign policy experts was a sign that many South Koreans were still anxious about American extended deterrence – the U.S. military capability, especially its nuclear forces.

But the allies’ push to strengthen that deterrence is the “easiest, most effective and peaceful” way to counter the North’s threats, he said.

PARADIGM SHIFT

Intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China and the Ukraine war have triggered a sweeping shift in the post-Cold War paradigm, putting South Korea near the centre of the turmoil and complicating its calculations, Shin said.

“Even in Northeast Asia, there are forces who are openly seeking to change the status quo by force, and we are at the forefront, directly affected,” Shin said, speaking at his office in Seoul, the South Korean capital.

By clinching a strategic partnership treaty with Russia this year, North Korea has gone from “being a headache in Asia to a global villain,” while Moscow tainted its own national prestige by “begging for help” from Pyongyang and betraying the international community with its war against Ukraine, he said.

South Korea responded by warning that it could consider arming Ukraine with lethal weapons, a potential shift from its policy of sticking to humanitarian and economic assistance, if Russia provides the North with advanced weapons technology.

Shin said North Korea received Russian assistance with a rocket engine used in a failed attempt in May to launch a spy satellite.

But he did not consider that to cross a “red line,” saying he was focused instead on any transfer of technology linked with intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, as well as anti-air weapons, radars, tanks and fighter jets.

From last year until Aug. 4, North Korea has shipped more than 12,000 containers to Russia, enough to carry about 5.6 m 152-mm artillery shells, Shin said.

The actual number would vary because North Korea has sent three or four kinds of shells of different sizes, including rockets, and separately also supplied dozens of short-range missiles, he said.

While Yoon’s administration has been more open in echoing Washington’s calls for “like-minded nations” to stand together in the face of tension with China and Russia, Shin said South Korea has not discussed joining other U.S. allies and partners in naval exercises in the South China Sea, where Beijing has clashed with neighbours over maritime claims.

TENSION ACROSS THE KOREAN BORDER

Tension between the neighbours has flared in recent weeks, after North Korea floated thousands of balloons containing trash in protest against South Korean activists sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets.

Seoul resumed its loudspeaker broadcasts near the border for the first time in 2018, blaring news and K-pop music, which Shin called an “effective, stinging” form of psychological warfare.

Among newly added news was the surprising defection of Ri Il Gyu, who worked as a senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba, and the participation of Jin, a member of the K-pop supergroup BTS, in the Paris Olympics’ torch relay.

“I understand that North Korea has been struggling to block BTS’ popularity as there was a craze among young people imitating their dances,” Shin said, declining to identify the source of the information.

“The loudspeaker campaign would have a long-term impact as a key catalyst in driving change in society, and could potentially provide a momentum for the North’s denuclearisation if we work more with the international community.” (Source: Reuters)

 

07 Aug 24. Bangladesh: Attempts at government formation continue; security, crime risks remain elevated. On 6 August, reports confirmed that Muhammad Yunus is set to lead the planned interim government and is expected to arrive in Bangladesh by 8 August. The decision followed the president’s meeting with protest leaders and chiefs of the armed forces. These parties will hold a consultation over the next 24 hours to decide on who else will form the government. This comes amid leadership changes in major institutions, including the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and the Dhaka Metropolitan Police; both are based in the capital Dhaka. Incidents aimed against minority groups and their residences and businesses have been reported in recent days. News outlets reported sporadic attacks against garment factories in the Savar industrial area in the capital Dhaka earlier on 7 August. Meanwhile, robberies were also reported overnight in Dhaka. Members of the Awami League (AL) also held a procession to protest the ousting and departure of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina earlier on 7 August. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) also held a rally. While no significant clashes were reported, the risk of confrontation will remain elevated in the coming days. We assess that the swift introduction of an interim government with popular support will be crucial to partly restoring stability. (Source: Sibylline)

 

07 Aug 24. Australia-US: Increasing military co-operation in the Indo-Pacific will sustain tensions with China. On 6 August, during the Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) in the US, the US and Australia announced a significant step-up in their defence collaboration. Starting in 2025, they will co-manufacture Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS). The US will also increase its military presence in Australia, deploying more maritime patrol, reconnaissance and bomber aircraft. Upgrades to air bases in the Northern Territory closer to potential flashpoints with China, were also confirmed. Additionally, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands will undergo infrastructure upgrades to support enhanced maritime surveillance operations. Efforts to secure and diversify critical mineral supply chains and integrate Australian minerals into US defence supply chains were highlighted in the joint declaration. These initiatives reflect the strategic balancing pursued by Western-aligned regional actors in the face of China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. We assess that, despite a recent thawing of its ties with China, Australia’s increasing co-operation with the US will likely sustain underlying tensions. (Source: Sibylline)

 

07 Aug 24. Bolivia: Referendum will elevate domestic unrest, government stability risks. On 6 August, President Luis Arce announced that he would seek to hold a referendum on the issues of fuel subsidies, the constitutionality of presidential re-elections and the distribution of Legislative Assembly deputies among the country’s departments. The referendum is slated to take place in early December. Since 31 July, heavy transport workers have carried out strikes and erected roadblocks in protest of fuel and dollar shortages. Bolivia imports 80% of its diesel and spends around USD 10 m daily to sustain these purchases, further exacerbating the foreign currency reserve shortages. If the government removes fuel subsidies, the shortages will likely be partially mitigated, improving Bolivia’s long-term economic outlook. However, we assess that this would also likely induce significant price shocks, elevating socio-economic health risks and further escalating domestic unrest in the short term. Additionally, the referendum on the constitutionality of presidential re-election is likely to significantly elevate domestic unrest and government stability risks amid the ongoing political feud between Arce and his rival former president Evo Morales. (Source: Sibylline)

 

07 Aug 24. Ivory Coast parades new weaponry. Cote d’Ivoire has unveiled a new batch of military hardware, including DCD Protected Mobility Husky route clearance vehicles, ahead of its independence day parade. During preparations for the country’s independence day on 7 August, Cote d’Ivoire displayed new armoured vehicles, missiles, and other equipment, including at least three Husky route clearance vehicles, at least eleven Norinco VP11 mine-resistant, ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles, at least 15 DongFeng EQ2050 armoured personnel carriers (APCs), half a dozen VN-22B wheeled armoured fire support vehicles, and a number of Can-Am Maverick Sport Max all-terrain vehicles. Also seen were 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missiles and 9K32 Strela-2 man-portable air defence systems, which appear to have been recently acquired. The latest equipment acquisitions indicate a substantial amount of new hardware has been delivered since 2022, when Cote d’Ivoire first displayed International Armoured Group (IAG) Jaws armoured personnel carriers, WZ-551 6×6 infantry fighting vehicles from China, and Nurol Makina Ilgaz-II armoured vehicles from Turkey. The Armoured Group (TAG) has also supplied BATT UMG and Terrier LT-79 armoured vehicles to Cote d’Ivoire while Turkey has delivered at least 20 Otokar Cobra II APCs. Nineteen Springbuck SD APCs were acquired from South Africa. Cote d’Ivoire’s army previously was known to only operate handfuls of AML-60, AML-90, BRDM-2, ERC-90F4 Sagaie, BMP-1/2, VAB, M-3 Panhard, Mamba and BTR 80 armoured vehicles. These were in 2018 supplemented with second hand BTR-70 and Kaiman armoured vehicles from Belarus and Bastion APCs from France. On the naval side, Cote d’Ivoire is receiving two OPV-45 offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) from Israel. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s arms transfers database, China provided a single Predator PC patrol craft in 2017, and Cote d’Ivoire took delivery of a second hand P400 patrol vessel from France in 2022, and three RPB 33 patrol craft in 2014-16. The new acquisitions come after armed groups linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaida crossed the border to launch attacks in Cote d’Ivoire, as Islamist extremists seek to expand toward the Gulf of Guinea from their strongholds in Mali and Burkina Faso. The army has built bases along the borders with Mali and Burkina Faso and deployed between 2 000 and 2 500 troops in the area. The government continues to prioritise its military response and in 2021, President Alassane Ouattara promised to spend 1% of the country’s GDP on equipment to prevent terrorists from entering the country. According to Crisis Group, as jihadist groups in the Sahel move southward, Côte d’Ivoire has beefed up its security deployment in the north and rolled out a range of social projects to alleviate poverty and youth unemployment. Militant violence has subsided since a series of attacks in the north between 2020 and 2021. Côte d’Ivoire’s twin focus on security and economic development is yielding important dividends for the population in the north, Crisis Group said.

“Security sources plausibly suggest that Ouattara’s government has built the most professional army Côte d’Ivoire has had to date, which will soon also be the largest. By the end of 2023, the army is slated to be a force of 24 000, while the police and gendarmerie are estimated to account for an additional 40 000 security personnel. Some question, however, whether training soldiers to a higher professional standard and purchasing new military equipment is sufficient to effectively respond to the unconventional strategies adopted by jihadist rebels.”

In addition to putting boots on the ground in the north, Abidjan is bolstering its security architecture with a counter-terrorism training facility that aims to become a regional hub for security and senior government personnel involved in reversing jihadism. In June 2021, Ivorian and French authorities opened the International Academy for the Fight Against Terrorism (Académie Internationale de Lutte contre le Terrorisme, or AILCT) in the seaside town of Jacqueville, near Abidjan. By 2023, officials and officers from 26 African countries had completed courses there. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)

 

07 Aug 24. Niger became the second west African country in a week to cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine amid an escalating row over whether Kyiv provided support for rebels behind an attack last month that killed scores of Malian soldiers and mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group. Niger’s military junta said late on Tuesday that it would follow its neighbour Mali with “immediate effect” by severing relations with Ukraine, accusing Kyiv of supporting “terrorist” groups. Mali broke ties with Ukraine over the weekend after reports in the eastern European country that Andriy Yusov, spokesperson for GUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, admitted that Kyiv gave support to rebel Tuaregs who claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on the Mali-Algeria border. “The rebels received all the necessary information they needed,” Yusov was quoted as saying in the Ukrainian press. (Source: FT.com)

 

06 Aug 24. Austin Charts Further Progress in Deepening U.S.-Australia Alliance. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III reaffirmed the impenetrable bond between the U.S. and Australia after hosting high-level talks today with key Australian officials.

Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosted their Australian counterparts, Defense Minister Richard Marles and Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong, at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland for the 34th Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations, or AUSMIN.

The officials announced new steps to enhance force posture and defense industrial cooperation between the U.S. and Australia, further building upon recent strides in the longstanding alliance.

“Today’s meetings have once again demonstrated the extraordinary strength of our unbreakable alliance with Australia,” Austin said during a joint news conference following the talks.

He added that today’s discussions were guided by the U.S. and Australia’s common vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Austin also announced the two countries are taking steps to deepen force posture cooperation with upgrades to critical air bases in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

“We’re also increasing the presence of rotational U.S. Forces in Australia,” he said. “All this will mean more maritime patrol aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft operating from bases across northern Australia. It will also mean more frequent rotational bomber deployments.”

The U.S. and Australia are also increasing defense industrial base cooperation.

Austin announced that the two countries are aiming to sign memorandums of understanding by the end of the year that will support in the production of critical munitions.

One agreement would support the manufacturing of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems in Australia by 2025.

A second agreement would support the co-production, co-sustainment and co-development of the Precision Strike Missile. The two countries have agreed to stand up a joint program office for that endeavor in early 2025.

“Together, these efforts will help ensure that we have the capability and the capacity that we’ll need for decades to come,” Austin said.

Austin said both countries will also continue to advance their defense ties with other regional allies and partners throughout the Indo-Pacific and build upon the trilateral AUKUS security partnership with the U.K.

“We got a lot done today,” Austin said. “We’ll keep building on our joint achievements over the past 3 1/2 years. And we’ll keep charting an ambitious course forward.”

Today’s talks in Annapolis cap a series of engagements with key allies in the Indo-Pacific over the past 10 days as the Defense Department continues to strengthen partnerships to support a shared vision for peace, stability and deterrence throughout the region.

Last week, Austin concluded his 11th visit to the region with stops in Japan and the Philippines where he met alongside Blinken with key allies throughout the region.

While in Japan, the two U.S. officials met with Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa as part of this year’s U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee meeting in Tokyo.

Austin and Kihara will also meet separately with South Korean defense minister for the first trilateral Ministerial Meeting, a key component of the U.S., South Korea and Japan security cooperation dialogue.

From Tokyo, Austin and Blinken travelled to Manila, the Philippines, where they met with Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo as part of the dialogue as part of the fourth Philippines-United States 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue.

The series of engagements mark a continuation of President Joe Biden’s strategy of sustained engagement in the United States’ priority theater of operations.

In previewing Austin’s trip, a senior defense official remarked that it would represent “the 10 most consequential days for U.S. defense ties in the Indo-Pacific since the start of the administration.”

“AUSMIN marks Day 10, and I think you’ll find that, amid a crowded news cycle, we were right,” the official said yesterday ahead today’s talks in Annapolis.

“This administration has spent the past three-and-a-half years delivering major results with Indo-Pacific allies and partners, and these 10 days are all about taking that work to the next level,” he said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

06 Aug 24. Washington has warned Turkey that there will be “consequences” if the country does not curtail its exports to Russia of US military-linked hardware that is vital to Moscow’s war machine.  Matthew Axelrod, assistant commerce secretary leading US efforts to keep sensitive technology out of the hands of America’s adversaries, recently met Turkish officials and executives in Ankara and Istanbul as part of efforts to halt the illicit trade. His message, according to a senior commerce department official, was that Turkey must work harder to curb trade in American-origin chips and other parts that are pivotal for Moscow’s war in Ukraine.  “We need Turkey to help us stop the illicit flow of US technology to Russia,” Axelrod said in a statement to the Financial Times. “We need to see progress, and quickly, by Turkish authorities and industry or we will have no choice but to impose consequences on those that evade our export controls,” he added. Washington’s warning is the latest sign of how Turkey’s decision to retain strong trade ties with Russia has tarnished relations between the two Nato allies. The US, EU and other western partners have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but Turkey has eschewed the curbs and increased trade with the country since the war broke out. The US is particularly worried that Turkey has become a key hub through which western-made electronics, including processors, memory cards and amplifiers, are making their way to Russian missiles and drones in contravention of export controls. Machine tools are another significant area of concern. US Treasury under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence Brian Nelson expressed frustration over Turkey’s trade in military-linked goods during a visit to the country late last year. The US, EU, UK and Japan have joined together to target trade in about 50 categories of civilian products with military applications, which the allies view as a high priority for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Turkey is the world’s second-biggest source, behind China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to Russia, according to the commerce department official. (Source: FT.com)

 

06 Aug 24. Cocos Islands, PNG identified as possible Pacific Deterrence Initiative sites. The Cocos Islands, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste are among a handful of locations outlined in a new Pacific Deterrence Initiative multiple award construction contract published by the US Navy. The contract, published by the Department of the Navy’s Naval Facilities Engineering Command, seeks design-build and design-bid-build construction services to support the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI).

The PDI is aimed at making targeted investments that enhance US force posture, infrastructure, presence, and readiness as well as the capacity and capabilities of US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region.

The contract lists potential construction of new facilities, repair/renovation, and upgrades to a variety of facility types, including wharves/piers, dredging, aprons, runways, fuel storage, roads, hangars, and other base infrastructure facilities.

Other locations potentially under consideration include Bandiana, Palau, Micronesia, Tinian, US Pacific – Midway, US Pacific – Wake Island, and other areas.

“The Department of the Navy’s Naval Facilities Engineering Command is seeking to award multiple Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contracts for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative Multiple Award Construction Contract (PDI MACC),” according to information published in June this year by Naval Facilities Engineering Command.

“The purpose is to provide design-build and design-bid-build construction services to support the PDI program at various locations in the Indo-Pacific region. The services required span a wide range of projects including new facilities, repairs, renovations, and infrastructure upgrades.

“Proposals will be evaluated using a best value trade-off process, with non-price factors like technical approach, experience, and past performance being significantly more important than price. The solicitation has a due date of September 11, 2024.

“This full and open procurement has no set-aside designations. It is anticipated that a minimum of three IDIQ contracts will be awarded, each with a 60-month base period and three 12-month option periods, for a total contract ceiling of up to $15 bn across all awardees. Task orders under the MACC will typically range from $20 m to $2 bn. The primary places of performance are expected to be in Australia, Micronesia, the Philippines, and other areas under the cognisance of NAVFAC Pacific.

“It is anticipated that this PDI MACC may include projects in Australia – Cocos Islands, Australia – Papua New Guinea, Australia – Timor-Leste, Australia – Bandiana, Micronesia – Palau, Micronesia – Federated States of Micronesia, Micronesia – Rota, CNMI – Tinian, Philippines, US Pacific – Midway, US Pacific – Wake Island, and other areas under NAVFAC Pacific cognisance.”

The Australian Department of Defence has previously announced airfield upgrades for the Cocos Islands. Defence has stated that due to insufficient length and strength of the existing airfield pavement, large Defence aircraft are unable to operate out of CKI.

The CKI Airfield Upgrade Project proposes to improve pavement infrastructure, enhance airfield lighting and drainage infrastructure, develop a new permanent construction wharf and removal of waste from West Island. The project will be delivered at the airfield (located adjacent to the West Island town centre), Rumah Baru Port Facility (located on the north-east of West Island). Defence has previously stated that works are expected to commence in mid-2024, with construction to commence in late 2024. All works are forecast to be complete by mid-2027. (Source: Defence Connect)

 

07 Aug 24. Bangladesh army refused to suppress protest, sealing Hasina’s fate. The night before long-time leader Sheikh Hasina abruptly fled Bangladesh amid deadly protests, her army chief held a meeting with his generals and decided that troops would not open fire on civilians to enforce a curfew, two serving army officers with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters. Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman then reached out to Hasina’s office, conveying to the prime minister that his soldiers would be unable to implement the lockdown she had called for, according to an Indian official briefed on the matter. The message was clear, the official said: Hasina no longer had the army’s support. Details of the online meeting between military top brass and the message to Hasina that she had lost their backing have not previously been reported.

They help to explain how Hasina’s 15-year rule, during which she brooked little dissent, came to such a chaotic and sudden end on Monday, when she fled from Bangladesh to India.

The nationwide curfew had been imposed after at least 91 people were killed and hundreds injured in nationwide clashes on Sunday, the deadliest day since student-led protests against Hasina began in July.

Army spokesman Lt. Col. Sami Ud Dowla Chowdhury confirmed the Sunday evening discussions, which he described as a regular meeting to take updates after any disturbance. He did not provide details when presented with additional questions about decision-making at that meeting.

Hasina could not be reached and her son and advisor, Sajeeb Wazed, did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Reuters spoke to ten people familiar with the events of the past week, including four serving army officers and two other informed sources in Bangladesh, to piece together the final 48 hours of Hasina’s reign. Many of them spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Hasina, who has ruled Bangladesh for 20 of the last 30 years, was elected to a fourth term leading the country of 170 m in January, after arresting thousands of opposition leaders and workers. That election was boycotted by her main rivals.

Her iron-fisted grasp on power has been challenged since summer by protests triggered by a court ruling to reserve government jobs – heavily coveted amid high youth unemployment – for certain segments of the population. The decision was overturned but the demonstrations had quickly morphed into a movement to oust Hasina.

Zaman has not publicly explained his decision to withdraw support from Hasina. But the scale of the protests and a death toll of at least 241 made supporting Hasina at all costs untenable, three former senior Bangladesh army officers told Reuters.

“There was a lot of uneasiness within the troops,” said retired Brig. Gen. M. Sakhawat Hossain. “That is what probably (put) pressure on the chief of army staff, because the troops are out and they are seeing what is happening.”

Zaman, who is related to Hasina by marriage, had showed signs of wavering in his support for the prime minister on Saturday, when he sat on an ornate wooden chair and addressed hundreds of uniformed officers in a town hall meeting. The military later made some details of that discussion public.

The general declared that lives had to be protected and called on his officers to show patience, said army spokesman Chowdhury.

It was the first indication that Bangladesh’s army would not forcefully suppress the violent demonstrations, leaving Hasina vulnerable.

Retired senior soldiers such as Brig. Gen. Mohammad Shahedul Anam Khan were among those who defied the curfew on Monday and took to the streets.

“We were not stopped by the army,” said Khan, a former infantry soldier. “The army has done what he had promised the army would do.”

‘SHORT NOTICE’

On Monday, the first full day of the indefinite nationwide curfew, Hasina was holed up inside the Ganabhaban, or “People’s Palace”, a heavily-guarded complex in the capital Dhaka that serves as her official residence.

Outside, on the streets of the sprawling city, crowds gathered. Tens of thousands of people had answered protest leaders’ call for a march to oust the leader, streaming into the heart of the city.

With the situation spiralling out of her control, the 76-year-old leader decided to flee the country on Monday morning, according to the Indian official and two Bangladesh nationals familiar with the matter.

Hasina and her sister, who lives in London but was in Dhaka at the time, discussed the matter and flew out together, according to a Bangladesh source. They left for India around lunch, local time.

Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told parliament on Tuesday that New Delhi had urged “various political forces with whom we were in touch” to resolve the situation via dialogue throughout July.

But as crowds gathered in Dhaka on Monday ignoring the curfew, Hasina decided to resign “after a meeting with leaders of the security establishment”, he added. “At very short notice, she requested approval to come for the moment to India.”

A second Indian official said it was “diplomatically” conveyed to Hasina that her stay had to be temporary for fear of negatively impacting Delhi’s ties with the next government in Dhaka. India’s Ministry of External Affairs did not immediately return a request for comment.

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, whom the protesting students want to lead the interim government after Hasina’s ouster, told The New Indian Express newspaper that India had “good ties with the wrong people… Please revisit your foreign policy.”

Yunus wasn’t immediately available for an interview.

Late in the afternoon on Monday, a Bangladesh Air Force C130 transport aircraft landed at Hindon air base outside Delhi, with Hasina on board.

There, she was met by Ajit Doval, India’s powerful national security advisor, according to the Indian security official.

Delhi had fought to carve Bangladesh out of East Pakistan in 1971. After Hasina’s father was assassinated in 1975, Hasina took refuge in India for years and built deep links with her neighbour’s political elite.

Returning to Bangladesh, she gained power in 1996, and was seen as more sensitive to India’s security concerns than her political rivals. The Hindu-majority nation also regarded her secular stance as favourable for the 13 m Hindus in Bangladesh.

But back in Bangladesh, resentment still lingered even among retired soldiers that Hasina had been allowed to leave.

“Personally, I feel that she should not have been given a safe passage,” said Khan, the veteran. “That was a folly.” (Source: Reuters)

 

06 Aug 24. Colombia: End of ceasefire will increase attack, bystander safety risks. On 5 August, Defence Minister Iván Velásquez announced that the armed forces have resumed military operations against the National Liberation Army (ELN). On 3 August, the six-month ceasefire between the ELN and the Colombian government expired. The government did not renew the ceasefire as a result of an uptick in ELN kidnappings and their recruitment of minors. Additionally, peace negotiations reached a stalemate due to the government’s independent negotiations with the Comuneros del Sur splinter faction in Nariño department. Also on August 5, the government green-lit an initiative to lay the foundations for future ceasefire negotiations with the Clan del Golfo organised crime group (OCG). The progress with the Clan del Golfo negotiations points to a realistic possibility of decreasing organised crime risks in the long term. However, we assess that the deteriorating security environment will increase bystander safety risks in ELN strongholds such as the Arauca, Chocó and Norte de Santander departments. The risk of kidnappings and retaliatory attacks will also be elevated in these areas. (Source: Sibylline)

 

05 Aug 24. SANDF leadership to fix SANDF “challenges” – Holomisa. The entrance road to the ‘military capital’ of Thaba Tshwane.

Deputy Defence Minister Bantu Holomisa has pledged that from this week, senior military leadership will brief Defence Minister Angie Motshekga on fixing challenges in the Department of Defence after media reports of generals living in luxury homes while defence facilities deteriorate.

Rapport on the weekend reported that although the South African National Defence Force’s (SANDF’s) top dozen generals enormous salaries of nearly R2 m per year, they do not pay for water and electricity because taxpayers pick up that tab – apparently some of the generals’ water and electricity bills amount to more than R20 000 per month.

The decision for the SANDF to pay top generals’ municipal bills was made in September 2018 by the Military Command Council and approved by former Secretary for Defence Dr Sam Gulube.

The publication went on to state that the SANDF pays huge amounts of money to refurbish generals’ properties, which are guarded by soldiers. Renovation and maintenance work is often handled by the army’s own maintenance personnel, although the houses are rented through the Department of Public Works and Infrastructure (DPWI).

When load shedding was still in effect, each general had a military generator at his home, and one house had a water tanker parked outside after experiencing water supply issues.

The generals’ royal treatment is increasingly viewed with resentment by soldiers, especially since South Africa’s forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo are currently suffering from a lack of equipment, proper accommodation and medical facilities, Rapport continued.

The South African National Defence Union’s (Sandu’s) Pikkie Greeff said, “Soldiers are growing more disillusioned because the generals don’t care about the troops at ground level.”

Sandu threatened to get a court order last month to restore the electricity at 4 SA Infantry Battalion in Middelburg, where the offices and residences had been without power for nearly two weeks. The electricity supply was subsequently fixed over the weekend.

“There are army houses where the geysers don’t work. The army’s attitude is that the soldiers can fix them themselves. We’re compiling a list of similar defects and then we’re going to fight the case in court, based on the provisions of the occupational health legislation. Soldiers just want to do their jobs in acceptable conditions,” said Greeff.

Holomisa, responding to the allegations, said the Acting Secretary for Defence Dr Thobekile Gamede, Chief of the SANDF General Rudzani Maphwanya, and commanders of defence formations “will brief the Minister on how to fix defence challenges, as reported in the media. Speed will be of essence.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)

 

06 Aug 24. Iraq: Rocket attack elevates collateral risks for US military facilities; targeted retaliation is likely. On 5 August, unknown assailants fired two rockets at the US-Coalition Ain Al-Asad Airbase (al-Anbar governorate); at least one fell within the base perimeter and injured at least five US service personnel. The full extent of the damage and motivations for the attack remains unclear. Ain Al-Asad Airbase has experienced previous attacks in recent months, including an Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) drone attack on 16 July. An elevated security posture is likely around all military assets in Iraq, increasing the likelihood of arbitrary stop-and-search operations and temporary detentions impacting staff. We assess that further attacks against the Ain Al-Asad Airbase and other US and Western-affiliated military assets are likely, elevating collateral risks to staff and assets in the vicinity of military facilities. The US will likely respond to this attack through targeted airstrikes, increasing the likelihood of a spike in conflict between the US and local Iranian proxies, possibly delaying US withdrawal from Iraq and sustaining risks of regional escalation. (Source: Sibylline)

 

06 Aug 24. Tunisia: Crackdown on presidential candidates will augment domestic unrest, political uncertainty. On 5 August, a Tunisian court sentenced four prospective presidential candidates to eight months in prison and banned them from running for office over charges of vote buying. On the same day, another court sentenced the prominent opposition candidate Abir Moussi to two years in prison. The court decisions come one month after the sentencing of another candidate, Lotfi Mraihi, over the same charges. The crackdown on candidates highlights persistent attempts by President Kais Saied to eliminate serious competition in the upcoming presidential election in October. In the coming days, the sentences will likely trigger small to medium-scale protests against Saied, mainly in the capital Tunis, elevating bystander risks in downtown areas. Such protest action will not be limited to political activists but will likely expand to groups such as public workers due to economic grievances. Furthermore, we assess that the current crackdown on dissents will possibly prompt opposition factions to boycott the elections, augmenting risks of political uncertainty and government instability in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)

 

05 Aug 24. Myanmar Rebel Forces Capture Key Military Base in Lashio. Myanmar’s junta has lost communication with senior officers at a major military base in northeastern Myanmar, marking a rare admission of battlefield defeat. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a powerful ethnic rebel group, alongside allied resistance forces, claims to have taken control of the Lashio military base, the strategic garrison town in Shan state. This base serves as the headquarters for the junta’s Northeastern Military Command.

Since late June, the MNDAA has intensified its offensive to capture Lashio, the largest town in Shan state, which is crucial to the junta’s power in the region near the Chinese border. On July 25, the MNDAA announced they had “won a decisive victory” after a 23-day operation and declared Lashio “fully liberated.” This was followed by the capture of several senior army commanders, including a major general, a significant blow to the junta.

The junta’s spokesperson, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, confirmed the loss of communication with the officers at the base, criticizing the MNDAA for breaking a ceasefire established in January. Despite these claims, images and videos circulating on social media show MNDAA troops in control of strategic locations within Lashio, including the railway station and the broadcast station.

The capture of Lashio represents the most significant victory for the resistance since the coup in 2021, potentially marking a turning point in the ongoing civil war. The conflict, characterized by brutal attacks on civilians and mass displacement, has seen more than 3 m people displaced. Analysts suggest the fall of Lashio could indicate a significant weakening of the Myanmar military, with implications for the junta’s control over large parts of the country.

In response, allied ethnic armies along the Thai and Indian borders have expressed support for the MNDAA, vowing to continue fighting until the military regime is overthrown. This coalition of resistance forces aims to intensify efforts to dismantle the junta’s hold over Myanmar, further complicating the already volatile situation. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

 

06 Aug 24. Despite security threats, India’s defense budget remains static. Beset by security issues at home and along its borders, the Indian government unveiled its Fiscal Year 2024-25 defense budget on July 23. Funds amounted to 6.219trn rupees, or approximately $74.3bn in U.S. dollars, according to a government press release.

Defense received the highest share of any government department — 12.9% of the union budget — with Delhi stating in the release that the figure was 4.79% higher than last year’s defense budget and 18.43% higher than the FY2022-23 sum.

While the development sounds positive at face value, the 2024-25 defense budget is actually just 0.06% higher than last year’s total defense expenditure. The close proximity of these figures relates to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement in February, shortly before national elections, of an extra “interim” defense budget.

These numbers reflect the grave security situation that India faces due to longstanding tensions with Pakistan. What’s more, “India perceives a major defense challenge from China, which is a far larger economy and is spending more than India on its own defense,” Antoine Levesques, a research fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, told Defense News.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute calculated India’s defense expenditure at 2.4% of GDP in 2023.

“By comparison, China, with its much larger economy than India’s, spends about 1.7% of its share of GDP on defense,” Professor Manjeet S. Pardesi, of the Centre for Strategic Studies at New Zealand’s Victoria University, told Defense News. “So, in a numerical sense, India is spending an adequate amount.

“The real issue is how this sum is being spent. If India continues to invest in building the capabilities to defend against and deter China (and Pakistan), then India’s defense spending is adequate. … [However,] the challenge for India is that China is rapidly expanding its capabilities and is increasingly technologically capable in terms of indigenous defense production — while spending a smaller share of its GDP on defense than India.”

Budget breakdown

India allocated its latest defense budget with 27.66% on capital assets; 14.82% on sustainment and operational preparedness; 30.66% on pay and allowances; 22.7% for defense pensions; and 4.17% for civil organizations under the defense ministry, the MoD revealed.

“The capital outlay of 1.72trn rupees will further strengthen the capabilities of the armed forces,” Defence Minister Rajnath Singh wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Delhi’s announcement claimed this amount rose 9.4% from last year “to fill critical capability gaps through big-ticket acquisitions,” such as fighters, ships, submarines, drones and vehicles.

In its press release, the MoD promised 75% of this modernization budget would go to domestic industry. However, India did not break down figures for each armed service, something it’s done in previous years.

Sustainment and operational readiness, meanwhile, received INR920 bn, up 48% compared to two years ago. The money “will facilitate procurement of ammunition, mobility of resources and personnel as demanded by the security situation and strengthen the deployment in forward areas for any unforeseen situation,” government officials wrote.

Infrastructure along tense borders also received a boost.

“Up 30% year on year, this allocation of INR65 bn to the Border Roads Organisation will further accelerate our border infrastructure,” Singh wrote on X.

Key projects include the high-altitude Nyoma Airfield and 2.5-mile-long Shinku La tunnel in the northwest part of the country.

Emphasis on self-reliance

India faces a challenge in achieving a defense procurement balance between foreign purchases versus upscaling and upskilling its native defense industry, Levesques told Defense News.

“The Modi 3.0 government is keen to find new domestic policy margins to loosen this dilemma, with the help of foreign partners able and willing to invest in India’s defense industrial base and next-generation co-production and co-creation,” he said.

This approach is seen in “Aatmanirbharta,” a Modi government catchphrase that translates to “self-reliance.”

Correspondingly, the defense budget saw a huge increase for the Innovations for Defence Excellence scheme, which encourages indigenous technological innovation. Last year’s INR1.15bn rose to INR5.18bn in 2024-25, the MoD revealed.

The value of defense production hit record levels of INR1.27trn (U.S. $15.2bn) in FY2023-24, according to an MoD press release published July 5. State-owned entities achieved 79.2% of this production, with private firms claiming the remainder. This number came in 16.7% greater than last year and 60% higher than four years ago, the ministry stated.

Still, “while India has had some limited successes in areas like the development of missiles, indigenous defense production — or self-reliance — is a long-term goal at best,” Victoria University’s Pardesi told Defense News.

“India will continue to partner with the U.S., France and even Russia,” he added. “[Not] becoming too dependent upon one single partner … will allow India to exercise a degree of strategic autonomy.”

Simultaneous to boosting domestic production, India’s defense exports topped new heights as well, reaching INR210bn (U.S. $2.5bn) in FY2023-24. This was up an impressive 32.5% year on year. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

 

05 Aug 24. Joint Statement From the U.S. Department of Defense and the Department of National Defense of the Republic of Niger. The U.S. Department of Defense and the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Niger announce that the withdrawal of U.S. forces and assets from Air Base 201 in Agadez is complete.

This effort began on May 19 following the mutual establishment of withdrawal conditions and coordination will continue between U.S. and Nigerien armed forces over the coming weeks to ensure the full withdrawal is complete as planned.

Nigerien Air Base 201, near Agadez in central Niger, was improved by the United States to support enhanced defense cooperation with the Nigerien armed forces and regional counterterrorism efforts.

Over the past decade, U.S. troops have trained Niger’s forces and supported partner-led counterterrorism missions against Islamic State and al Qaeda in the region.

The effective cooperation and communication between the U.S. and Nigerien armed forces ensured that this turnover was finished ahead of schedule and without complications.

The U.S. Department of Defense and the Nigerien Ministry of National Defense recognize the sacrifices made by both nations’ forces. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

02 Aug 24. US to depart final base in Niger next week, nearly ending withdrawal. The U.S. will depart from a second and final base in Niger Monday, all but ending a monthslong withdrawal from what was once a vital partner in the fight against terrorism, two American defense officials confirmed. One of the officials stressed that this didn’t mean America’s exit was complete. But Air Base 201 was the final U.S. military site in the West African country after forces exited Air Base 101 in the capital of Niamey this July.

Shortly after a group of U.S. officials visited in March, a spokesman for the Nigerien military announced in a televised address his government was ending its counterterrorism agreement with the U.S.

The news came as a surprise in Washington, where officials tried to understand whether it was official policy. Weeks of negotiations followed, and in May the U.S. agreed to end its military presence, setting a deadline of September 15.

The choice came at a huge military cost, both in dollars and opportunity. America had spent more than $100m building Air Base 201 and finished only five years ago. America’s 1,000 troops in the country were a bulwark against rising terrorism in the region — launching their own operations and training the Nigerien military to do so.

Their partnership began to fray last summer, when Niger’s military overthrew its government and formed a ruling junta. It took the U.S. months to label it a “coup,” a legal term that restricts American aid and military activity.

The U.S. delegation visited in March to try and soothe the relationship, though the Nigerien spokesman said in his address he felt hectored about multiple American concerns, including Niger’s ties to Iran and Russia.

Many analysts in Washington have warned America is losing a contest for influence on the continent to adversaries like Russia and China, who are less bound by concerns over human rights and democracy.

A senior Pentagon official, speaking to Defense News in July, disputed that narrative.

“This isn’t a case where [Niger has] chosen Russia over us,” the official said. “They are equally skeptical of external outside actors.”

Russian forces ended up staying on the same base as America’s military in the capital this year, though the two sides were far apart and didn’t interact, the official said.

‘An anchor’

There has been a wave of coups in West Africa in the last several years. Many of the new governments, including Niger’s, have resisted outside influence. They’ve chosen not to work with the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, a bloc of regional countries. Many have also severed ties with France, a counterinsurgency partner though one with heavy baggage as a former colonial power. For the U.S., losing access to Niger will hinder its fight against terrorism, one of the top priorities in the nation’s guiding defense strategy. The Sahel region’s share of global terrorist-related deaths rose from 1% in 2007 to 43% in 2022, according to the Global Terrorism Index.

“Niger has been really an anchor for our counterterrorism efforts over a decade,” said another senior U.S. defense official briefing reporters in May.

Located near the central city of Agadez, Air Base 201 was once an emblem of the two countries’ close partnership. The U.S. spent years building it to launch drone operations and has used its military presence to train Nigerien forces as well. (Source: Defense News)

 

02 Aug 24. Philippines-Vietnam: Upcoming joint drills in the South China Sea will likely sustain tensions. On 31 July, a Vietnamese Coast Guard (VCG) vessel departed for the Philippines. It is expected to arrive in the capital Manila on 5 August. The ship will reportedly participate in joint training exercises with the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), including search and rescue and maritime safety drills. This is the first such joint training between the two countries. Vietnam’s defence ministry stated that the trip has ‘profound political significance’. In January, the two countries signed deals on ‘maritime cooperation’ in the South China Sea, where they both have overlapping territorial claims with China. Tensions between Manila and Beijing have ratcheted up in recent months following several close encounters between their vessels around the Second Thomas Shoal (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 3 July 2024). We continue to assess that the US remains the central node of deterrence for a military escalation in the South China Sea. However, we assess that these drills indicate that claimant states are likely to expand co-operation with each other over the coming years to counterbalance China’s growing military capabilities and diplomatic power, sustaining regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)

Dozens of Wagner mercenaries and Malian soldiers were killed in a recent ambush by Tuareg rebels near the Algerian border, marking a significant setback for Mali’s army and its Russian allies. The Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security, and Development (CSP-PSD), a coalition of armed groups in Mali’s predominantly Tuareg north, claimed responsibility for the attack, which resulted in the capture of armored vehicles, trucks, and tankers.

The fighting occurred over two days near the border town of Tinzaouatene. The Malian army reported two soldiers killed and ten wounded, while the CSP-PSD stated they had killed dozens of government soldiers and Wagner mercenaries. On social media, videos circulated showing the bodies of white men and Malian soldiers, alongside destroyed vehicles.

A spokesperson for the CSP-PSD, Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane, confirmed the group’s control over Tinzaouatene and further south in the Kidal region. He also reported that Malian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries had fled or surrendered.

The Malian army issued a statement acknowledging the loss of two soldiers and ten injuries, along with the destruction of two armored vehicles and two pickup trucks. They claimed to have killed around 20 rebels and destroyed several vehicles. Additionally, the army reported a helicopter crash in Kidal during a routine mission, attributing it to technical difficulties rather than combat damage.

This clash represents the most significant blow to Wagner mercenaries in Mali to date. The Wagner Group, which has been active in Mali since 2021, provides military support to the Malian government following a series of coups that shifted the country’s alliances from France to Russia. The group has faced previous accusations of human rights abuses, which Mali’s authorities have denied.

Rida Lyammouri, a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, emphasized that this battle sends a clear message to the government about the challenges of recapturing and controlling northern regions. Lyammouri warned that the setback might lead to further atrocities against civilians by the government and Wagner forces.

Mali has been plagued by violence from jihadist and criminal groups since 2012. The current junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goita, took power in 2020 and 2021 and has prioritized retaking control from separatist and jihadist forces, particularly in the pro-independence northern bastion of Kidal. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

 

05 Aug 24. Bangladesh: Prime minister’s resignation drives uncertainty; security risks remain elevated. Earlier on 5 August, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled Bangladesh following significant unrest. In an address to the nation, army chief Waker-uz-Zaman claimed an interim government would be formed and urged protestors to go home. On 4 August, at least 100 people, including 14 police officers, were killed during violent clashes between protestors, pro-government groups and the security forces. Protesters made their way to the capital Dhaka as part of a ‘March to Dhaka’ earlier on 5 August to demand Hasina’s resignation; thousands took part in this demonstration. Mobile internet and broadband services were suspended, though broadband services were reportedly reconnected later. Security measures have been bolstered across the country, especially in Dhaka, with the army deployed in the city to maintain order. However, some reports suggest that the armed forces are not intervening heavily. Since Hasina’s resignation, reports of unrest have continued, including in Dhaka. This has included reports of fires in offices and residences linked to Hasina’s Awami League (AL) party; a police station was also attacked in the city of Sylhet (Sylhet division). This will likely drive further transport disruption and vandalisation risks to buildings and residences linked to the Hasina government. We assess there is a realistic possibility of counter-rallies by supporters of the AL, which will elevate the risk of confrontations with the protesters. (Source: Sibylline)

 

05 Aug 24. Venezuela: Anti-government demonstrations will elevate domestic unrest, government stability risks. On 3 August, protesters held anti-government demonstrations nationwide after President Nicolás Maduro almost certainly defrauded the presidential election. Thousands of protesters gathered in peaceful demonstrations in major urban centres across the country. The cities with large demonstrations included the capital Caracas, Maracaibo (Zulia state), San Cristobal (Táchira state) and Valencia (Carabobo state). Since the election on 28 July, at least 20 protesters have died in altercations. The regime has also detained around 2,000 opposition supporters according to Maduro. Reports indicate that the regime has also detained electoral observers, opposition co-ordinators and foreign journalists. In the coming days and weeks, the risk of violent domestic unrest and the risk of the security forces using excessive force against civilians will be elevated. Additionally, we assess that Maduro is highly likely to continue escalating his repression campaign, increasing arbitrary detentions and human rights risks. In the coming months, government stability risks will almost certainly rise significantly as internal and international pressure mounts on Maduro’s regime. (Source: Sibylline)

 

02 Aug 24. Nigeria: Decentralised protests will likely undermine negotiation prospects, sustaining unrest. On August 4, President Bola Tinubu called for the suspension of anti-government protests in a national broadcast, calling for dialogue. Since 1 August, protesters have organised demonstrations in urban centres across the country over the cost of living and energy insecurity, including in the capital Abuja and Lagos (Lagos state). The demonstrations were primarily organised online. In response, the security forces have repeatedly sought to forcibly disperse protesters (including with tear gas and live ammunition) whilst heavily restricting city-wide movement. Several groups have vowed to sustain protests and called for ‘Grand Force’ demonstrations claiming that President Tinubu did not address their demands, undermining prospects for a negotiated settlement. However, protest attendance in several cities earlier on 5 August was relatively limited, possibly reflecting growing fatigue in response to elevated repression. However, we assess that there remains a realistic possibility of further sporadic demonstrations in the coming days, sustaining bystander risks in cities across Nigeria. The authorities’ maintenance of a heightened security posture in cities will likely sustain movement disruption. (Source: Sibylline)

 

05 Aug 24. Somalia: Bombing attack highlights persistent threats to staff, assets. On 2 August, al-Shabaab militants killed at least 37 civilians and injured over 65 others in a small arms attack on the Liido Beach View Hotel in the capital Mogadishu in which at least one militant detonated an explosive belt. The attack was near the Djibouti and Turkish embassies and marks the highest casualty al-Shabaab attack since October 2022. This incident reflects al-Shabaab’s efforts to enhance its influence over Mogadishu and to disrupt ongoing counter-insurgency operations. In the coming weeks, al-Shabaab militants will almost certainly continue attempts to conduct attacks in Mogadishu and other cities nationwide, driving significant threats to staff and assets (including in Mogadishu’s Abdiaziz and Bondhere areas). Militants are highly likely to target both military and civilian installations, including hotels, restaurants and markets, particularly during peak use times. We assess that, in the long term, government efforts to advance counter-insurgency operations, particularly threatening al-Shabaab strongholds in southern Somalia, will likely act as flashpoints for spikes in attacks targeting key government and military officials, elevating security risks in Mogadishu. (Source: Sibylline)

 

06 Aug 24. Congo (DRC): Capture of border town will frustrate aid distribution, underlines threats to ceasefire. On 3 August, 98 Kinshasa-Congolese police officers crossed the Uganda border at Ishasha (North Kivu province) into Uganda’s Kanungu district (Western region) fleeing mounting attacks by the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group. Subsequently, the M23 captured the Ishasha border town on 4 August despite a ceasefire agreed between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, coming into effect that day. Fighting in this area since 1 August has prompted over 2,500 Kinshasa-Congolese refugees to flee to Uganda. The capture of Ishasha represents the third major border post captured by the M23, intensifying logistical challenges for humanitarian operations in North Kivu. We assess that further sporadic outbreaks of violence between the M23 and the Kinshasa-Congolese armed forces will drive threats to aid workers and increase the risks of a full resumption of conflict. The mass exodus of refugees to southwestern Uganda will almost certainly exacerbate strains on aid resources. (Source: Sibylline)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.

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