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01 Aug 24. Deadly Osprey crash caused by mechanical failure, pilot error, US Air Force says. A U.S. military Osprey aircraft crash off the coast of Japan in November that killed all eight crew members was caused by a failure in the gear box and the pilot’s decision making contributed to it, an Air Force investigation released on Thursday said.
The U.S. military grounded its fleet of V-22 Osprey aircraft for months after the fatal crash, which happened during a routine training mission on Nov. 29 off Yakushima Island, about 1,040 km (650 miles) southwest of the capital, Tokyo. “The mishap was caused by a catastrophic failure of the left-hand prop rotor gear box… decision-making was causal, prolonging the mishap sequence,” the investigation said. It said that the crew did not have a sense of urgency when they received warnings in the aircraft. The pilot of the Osprey had received an advisory to “Land as Soon as Practical” when the aircraft was still close to mainland Japan and could have diverted to several closer airfields. The investigation added that the pilot continued to fly at 8,000 feet above sea level, even though it would have been prudent to fly below the clouds present.
Although the deployment of the Osprey in Japan has faced opposition in the past, the Japanese government said it accepted the findings of the report and believed further accidents could be prevented.
“We have confirmed at all levels between Japan and the U.S. that ensuring flight safety is the top priority, and we intend to continue to cooperate with them to ensure such safety,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told a regular press briefing on Friday.
At least 400 multipurpose Ospreys have been delivered and are mainly used by the U.S. Air Force, Marines and Navy in Japan and elsewhere, according to Boeing which manufactures the Osprey along with Textron’s Bell Helicopter unit. The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier deployed to Japan, the USS Carl Vinson, relies on them to deliver some supplies and personnel.
According to the Flight Safety Foundation, at least 50 personnel have died in crashes operating or testing the aircraft. More than 20 of those deaths came after the V-22 entered service in 2007.
(Source: Reuters)
02 Aug 24. Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan released in Russia-West prisoner swap. Biden, Harris greet Americans freed from Russian detention.
- Summary
- U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, ex-Marine Paul Whelan freed
- Germany frees Vadim Krasikov, convicted of killing dissident
- 24 prisoners exchanged in total
- Biden hails ‘feat of diplomacy and friendship’
- Kremlin says aim was to bring Russians home
U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich and ex-U.S. Marine Paul Whelan returned to the United States on Thursday, hours after being freed from Russian detention in the biggest prisoner exchange between the two countries since the Cold War.
The White House said it negotiated the trade with Russia, Germany and three other countries. The deal, worked on in secrecy for more than a year, involved 24 prisoners – 16 moving from Russia to the West and eight sent back to Russia from the West.
They included Vadim Krasikov, convicted of murdering an exiled dissident in Berlin, the German government said.
U.S. President Joe Biden hailed the deal as “a feat of diplomacy and friendship” and praised Washington’s allies for their “bold and brave decisions.”
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, buoyed by the occasion, greeted freed Americans Gershkovich, Whelan and journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, as well as Russian dissident and U.S. resident Vladimir Kara-Murza, as they arrived at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, shortly before midnight (0400 GMT).
The president took off his lapel pin and gave it to Whelan as he got off the Bombardier Global 7500 aircraft.
The deal gives the Biden-Harris administration a marquee diplomatic success with the presidential campaign, pitting Harris against Republican former President Donald Trump, barely three months away.
Harris, poised to be the Democratic nominee after Biden dropped out of the race last month, praised his leadership for bringing together the complex prisoner swap, telling reporters on the tarmac it was a testament to American leadership.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met the prisoners returning to Russia on their arrival in Moscow, saying they would be given state awards.
The exchange also represents a victory for Putin, who had indicated he wanted Krasikov back. Their homeland “had not forgotten you for a moment,” he told the returnees to Russia.
Krasikov is a colonel in the Russian FSB security service who was serving a life sentence for murdering an exiled Chechen-Georgian dissident in a Berlin park.
CRITICS FEAR ‘DANGEROUS MESSAGE’
The multi-country deal appeared to be a one-time exchange that does not reset the antagonistic U.S.-Russia relationship, which has deteriorated sharply since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
U.S. deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said Washington-Moscow ties remain “in a very difficult place” despite the swap. “There was no trust involved in this relationship or negotiation,” Finer told broadcaster CNN.
Critics said freeing Russians convicted of serious crimes could encourage more hostage-taking by U.S. foes.
“I remain concerned that continuing to trade innocent Americans for actual Russian criminals held in the U.S. and elsewhere sends a dangerous message to Putin that only encourages further hostage-taking by his regime,” Michael McCaul, the Republican chair of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement.
Trump, who said he did not have details of the swap, asked whether “murderers, killers, or thugs” were released. “Just curious because we never make good deals, at anything, but especially hostage swaps,” the presidential nominee said on social media.
Also involved in the deal were Belarus, Norway, Poland and Slovenia. Turkey coordinated the exchange.
The Kremlin said in a statement its decision to pardon and free prisoners “was made with the aim of returning Russian citizens detained and imprisoned in foreign countries.”
The last major exchange between the United States and Russia, in 2010, involved 14 prisoners.
The two countries had a high-profile exchange in December 2022, swapping U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner – sentenced to nine years for vape cartridges containing cannabis oil in her luggage – for arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was serving a 25-year sentence.
EMOTIONAL REUNIONS
In the West, the dissidents are seen by governments and activists as wrongfully detained political prisoners. All have, for different reasons, been designated by Moscow as dangerous extremists.
Among the Westerners freed, Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter, was accused of collecting sensitive military information for the CIA, a charge he and the newspaper denied.
The White House posted an emotional video of the moment the families of the U.S.-bound detainees spoke to their loved ones by phone from the Oval Office.
“This is Momma. Do you hear me? It’s your mom,” Gershkovich’s mother tells her son in the clip, posted on Biden’s social media account on the X platform.
Hours later, Gershkovich scooped her up and lifted her in the air as they met on the tarmac while other family members cheered for joy.
Whelan, the former marine, was serving a 16-year sentence in a Russian penal colony on espionage charges that he denied.
Rico Krieger, a German, had been sentenced to death in Belarus on terrorism charges. He was pardoned by President Alexander Lukashenko, a close Putin ally, before being freed.
Also released was Kurmasheva, a Russian-American journalist sentenced to 6-1/2 years in prison on July 19, the same day as Gershkovich, as well as Kara-Murza, who was serving 25 years for treason after saying Putin was bombing Ukrainian homes, hospitals and schools.
Released with them were human rights activist Oleg Orlov and Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin.
Many of those freed had worked with Alexei Navalny, Russia’s leading opposition figure who died in unclear circumstances in an Arctic penal colony in February.
Before his death, Navalny was meant to have been part of the exchange, said Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan.
A Slovenian court on Wednesday sentenced two Russians to time served for espionage and using fake identities and said they would be deported. Both were among those returned to Russia, according to an official U.S. list.
Also returned to Russia and released from the U.S. were Roman Seleznev and Vladislav Klyushin – both convicted of cyber crimes – and Vadim Konoshchenok.
Wall Street Journal Editor in Chief Emma Tucker posted an open letter on X, calling it a “joyous day.”
(Source: Reuters)
01 Aug 24. Release of Vladimir Kara-Murza and Paul Whelan: Foreign Secretary’s statement. Foreign Secretary David Lammy responds to the release of British nationals from prison in Russia. The Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, said: “I strongly welcome the news that Russia has released a number of prisoners today, and am particularly relieved that British nationals Vladimir Kara-Murza and Paul Whelan will soon be reunited with their families.
Mr Kara-Murza is a dedicated opponent of Putin’s regime. He should never have been in prison in the first place: the Russian authorities imprisoned him in life-threatening conditions because he courageously told the truth about the war in Ukraine. I pay tribute to his family’s courage in the face of such hardship and hope to speak to him soon. Paul Whelan and his family have also experienced an unimaginable ordeal. I look forward to speaking to him as he returns home to his family in the United States after over 5 years in detention.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
31 Jul 24. Readout of U.S. – ROK Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Committee Plenary Session. Department of Defense Spokesperson Cmdr. Jessica Anderson provided the following statement:
On July 30, 2024, the Republic of Korea Ministry of National Defense and the U.S. Department of Defense held the 2024 U.S.-ROK Counter Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Committee in Seoul.
The meeting was attended by senior representatives from both countries, including Director General for Policy and Planning at the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Korea Yoon Bong-hee and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy at the Department of Defense of the United States Richard C. Johnson.
The two sides expressed concern that the DPRK’s WMD capabilities are contributing to instability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region and discussed in-depth ways to strengthen the effectiveness of U.S.-ROK deterrence and defense against North Korean WMD use.
The two sides discussed information sharing on DPRK’s WMD program and how to continue to enhance the capabilities and expertise of relevant forces through the Cooperative Threat Reduction program.
In particular, the two sides agreed that the illicit proliferation of WMD in the region, including the arms trade between Russia and the DPRK, undermines peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, including the Korean Peninsula, and will work together to prevent the proliferation of WMD.
The allies also agreed on the need for cooperation in consequence management to protect the alliance, minimize damage, and maintain combat capabilities in the event of a DPRK WMD attack and agreed to promote exchanges and cooperation between the relevant military units of the two countries.
Both sides assessed that the U.S.-ROK tabletop exercises in the nuclear, biological, and chemical defense fields in 2024 strengthened the alliance’s crisis management in light of the escalating DPRK WMD threats. Representatives of the ROK and the U.S. assessed the meeting as having contributed substantially to further strengthening cooperation in responding to the DPRK WMD threat and agreed to continue cooperation through the alliance’s combined defense posture. (Source: U.S. DoD)
01 Aug 24. Sudan: Assassination attempt highlights increasing RSF capabilities, elevated risks of strikes. On 31 July, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) announced that its Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan survived an assassination attempt during a visit to a military base in Jubayt (Red Sea state). The SAF claimed that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) conducted the drone strike, killing at least five others. Al-Burhan subsequently announced the SAF’s withdrawal from upcoming ceasefire negotiations, scheduled to begin on 14 August in Switzerland. Previously, RSF strikes have been primarily concentrated near RSF-controlled territory; as such, the assassination attempt highlights the RSF’s increasing capacity to conduct longer-range drone strikes. In the coming weeks, further strikes targeting high-ranking SAF personnel are highly likely, increasing physical security and bystander risks throughout SAF-controlled territory, particularly during overland movement near SAF positions. We assess that the RSF will likely attempt to conduct assassinations in the SAF’s de-facto capital, Port Sudan (Red Sea state), elevating bystander risks to NGO staff facilitating aid deliveries through the port facility. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Aug 24. Myanmar: State of emergency extension underlines lack of junta control. On 31 July, the junta extended the state of emergency for another six months. This is the sixth time it has been extended since the 2021 coup. Junta-controlled media claimed ‘stability and security’ were needed before the state of emergency could be lifted and blamed ‘terror acts’ from armed resistance groups. The latest extension highlights how the junta is struggling to control large parts of Myanmar, particularly in the periphery border states (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 16 June 2024). The junta claims it plans to hold general elections, which have a negligible chance of being freely and fairly contested. However, given that the junta is increasingly losing territory, with resistance groups reportedly close to taking full control of the junta’s Northeastern regional military command in Lashio (Shan state), we assess that a general election is highly unlikely to be prepared for following the latest state of emergency (unless it was restricted to central lowland areas only). (Source: Sibylline)
01 Aug 24. Moldova: Vulnerability to Russian espionage, destabilisation operations will endure over long term. On 31 July, the Moldovan Prosecutor’s Office for Combatting Organised Crime and Special Cases (PCCOCS) reported the detention of two officials for suspected treason and conspiracy against the country. The PCCOCS claimed that the officials had communicated with an employee of an unspecified foreign embassy in the capital Chișinău. An unnamed Moldovan security insider disclosed that they are suspected of providing information to the Russian embassy’s deputy defence attaché. Moldovan media reported on 31 July that searches in the parliament that day may be connected to espionage for Russia’s benefit. The pro-West Moldovan government has accused Moscow of attempting to destabilise the country since early 2023, with the latest development underscoring Moldova’s vulnerability to Russian espionage operations. We assess that Russia is highly likely to increase destabilisation and influence campaigns ahead of Moldova’s presidential election and the upcoming referendum on joining the EU on 20 October. (Source: Sibylline)
31 Jul 24. U.S. Conducts Defensive Airstrike in Iraq Amid Rising Tensions. U.S. forces carried out a defensive airstrike in Musayib, Babil Province, Iraq, on Tuesday evening, targeting militants attempting to launch drones, according to a U.S. military official. The strike, which occurred at 5 p.m. ET, was in response to the perceived threat these drones posed to American and allied troops in the region.
The airstrike targeted a base used by the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq’s Babil Province. According to Iraqi police and medical sources, the attack killed four PMF members and wounded four others. The PMF, an alliance of Iran-aligned militias integrated into Iraq’s security forces, confirmed the explosion and reported casualties without specifying the nature of the strike. The U.S. military stated the operation aimed to thwart an imminent drone attack by the militants.
This strike comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following a recent Israeli airstrike in Lebanon that targeted Hezbollah. U.S. Central Command assessed the targeted militants as a direct threat due to recent attacks in Iraq and Syria. This defensive action marks the first U.S. airstrike in Iraq since February, when American forces killed a pro-Iran commander involved in previous attacks on U.S. troops.
The PMF described the attack as involving missiles fired from drones, resulting in multiple casualties. Lebanese and Iraqi media affiliated with the PMF blamed the U.S. for the strike, though no official comment was provided by the Iraqi government at the time of reporting. The strike is part of a broader pattern of hostilities involving U.S. forces and Iran-aligned groups, which have seen sporadic exchanges of fire over recent months. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
01 Aug 24. China-India: Agreement to speed up border talks is unlikely to resolve bilateral dispute. Earlier on 1 August, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) announced that China and India agreed to ‘speed up the negotiation process’ around their disputed border. This follows the 30th meeting of the China-India Border Affairs Consultation and Coordination Working Mechanism in India on 31 July in the capital New Delhi. The MOFA stated that the two sides had ‘constructive’ and ‘forward-looking’ talks over resolving the border dispute, which has hampered bilateral relations since clashes broke out in 2020. Since then, India has tightened scrutiny of investments from Chinese companies. Additionally, both countries have built up military and civilian infrastructure along the contentious Line of Actual Control (LAC). We assess that a full resolution to the border dispute is highly unlikely in the short term despite the recent initiative. Domestic pressure not to concede territory is strong and previous talks have faltered amid heightened bilateral tensions. On 29 July, India’s minister of external affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stated that India’s relations with China are ‘not doing well’. Nonetheless, we assess that a major military escalation at the border remains unlikely for now, with talks highlighting a desire to contain and compartmentalise the dispute in the short-to-medium term. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Jul 24. Austin Builds Upon Strong U.S.-Philippine Ties During Talks in Manila. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III emphasized the United States’ commitment to further deepening ties with key allies throughout the Indo-Pacific after meeting with top officials today in Manila, the Philippines. Austin and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held high-level talks with their Philippine counterparts, Secretary for Foreign Affairs Enrique A. Manalo and Secretary of National Defense Gilberto C. Teodoro, as part of the fourth Philippines-United States 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue.
During the meeting, the leaders outlined measures to build upon the recent strides in the U.S.-Philippine alliance to include advancements in technology and cyber cooperation as well as steps to further enhance economic resilience through cooperation in key sectors including renewable energy, agriculture and food security.
Austin and Blinken also highlighted their work with Congress to allocate $500m in foreign military financing from the 2024 Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act and $125 m outlined in next year’s budget request for Philippine infrastructure across seven sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.
The two countries also reaffirmed their commitment to the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and “underscored the importance of working even more closely with likeminded allies and partners, including Australia and Japan,” Austin said during a news conference following the talks.
“This is part of what I’ve described as the new convergence in the Indo-Pacific, and we can see that new convergence right here,” he said. “The United States, the Philippines, and our other allies and partners are operating together more closely and capably than ever, and we’re working together to ensure a free and open region.”
The meeting was held as part of Austin’s 11th trip to the Indo-Pacific which also included meetings alongside Blinken with Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa in Tokyo on Sunday.
While in Tokyo, Austin and Kihara met with the South Korean defense minister for a trilateral ministerial meeting, held for the first time in Japan. The exchange is a key component of the U.S., South Korea and Japan security cooperation dialogue.
After returning to the U.S. later this week, Austin and Blinken will host Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong for this year’s Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations.
The series of engagements mark a continuation of President Joe Biden’s strategy of sustained engagement in the United States’ priority theater of operations.
“I know that it’s easy to focus on the crisis of the day, but just look at what our strategy has achieved in the Indo-Pacific over the past 3 1/2 years,” Austin said yesterday during a joint press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., at the Pentagon.
The secretary noted that the U.S. has nearly doubled its military construction investments in the Indo-Pacific over the last fiscal year and has continued to make significant improvements to its force posture in the region.
The U.S. has also led the way in uniting a broad network of partners focused on solving key regional challenges.
“Our ties with Australia are stronger than ever,” Austin said. “We’ve improved our relationships with Vietnam, Singapore, Papua New Guinea and many more.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
31 Jul 24. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Concludes Eleventh Visit to the Indo-Pacific. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Ms. Sabrina Singh provided the following release:
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III concluded his eleventh official visit to the Indo-Pacific region today after a historic series of engagements with counterparts and other senior officials in Japan and the Philippines.
During his trip, Secretary Austin met in Tokyo with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japanese Minister of Defense Kihara Minoru, and Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Kamikawa Yoko for the 2024 U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee — or “2+2” — meeting. Following the 2+2 meeting, the four officials announced historic steps to modernize Alliance roles, missions, and capabilities; expand defense industry cooperation; and enhance alignment with allies and partners. The four ministers also convened a historic ministerial meeting on Extended Deterrence.
While in Tokyo, Secretary Austin, Minister Kihara, and Republic of Korea (ROK) Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik held the first Trilateral Ministerial Meeting (TMM) to ever take place in either Japan or the ROK, where they signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework to further institutionalize their three countries’ security partnership.
In addition to holding bilateral meetings with Minister Kihara and Minister Shin, Secretary Austin also joined Secretary Blinken for a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, where the three officials highlighted the unprecedented momentum by the United States and Japan following Prime Minister Kishida’s April 2024 State Visit.
After arriving in Manila, Secretary Austin and Secretary Blinken met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to underscore the historic strength of the U.S.-Philippines Alliance, reaffirm ironclad U.S. support for the Philippines in defending its sovereign rights, and discuss ways to continue working more closely with like-minded nations in the Indo-Pacific region.
Secretary Austin and Secretary Blinken then joined their Philippine counterparts, Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro and Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo, for the fourth U.S.-Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue – the first to ever take place in Manila. Together, the four officials discussed opportunities to strengthen regional peace, stability, and prosperity in the face of shared challenges. In a separate bilateral meeting with Secretary Teodoro, Secretary Austin welcomed the historic announcements from the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue on Foreign Military Financing for the Philippines and the conclusion of a Security Sector Assistance Roadmap.
During his final day in the Philippines, Secretary Austin visited Subic Bay, where he visited a Philippine Navy facility and toured several defense industrial sites to underscore the area’s historic opportunities for defense industrial cooperation by the United States, the Philippines, and other regional allies and partners.
Secretary Austin’s eleventh trip to the Indo-Pacific came as the Department of Defense continues to achieve historic results with U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines toward a shared regional vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.
On August 6, Secretary Austin and Secretary Blinken will host their Australian counterparts — Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Penny Wong — in Annapolis, Maryland, for the 2024 Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), marking the conclusion of a historic ten-day series of engagements by Secretary Austin with Indo-Pacific allied counterparts. (Source: U.S. DoD)
31 Jul 24. Congo (DRC)-Rwanda: Ceasefire agreement will possibly result in reduction in conflict. On 30 July, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda agreed in the Angolan capital Luanda to a ceasefire coming into effect from 4 August. Details about the terms and nature of the ceasefire have not been disclosed and it is unclear if this merely represents another extension of the current humanitarian ceasefire due to expire on 3 August. As during the humanitarian truce, sporadic outbreaks of violence between the M23 rebel group and the Congolese armed forces and associated militias are likely to persist, driving threats to aid workers assisting with returns of displaced people. While the ceasefire will likely result in at least a temporary reduction in conflict, it is highly unlikely that the M23 will withdraw from all captured areas in North Kivu province, sustaining the risk of a resumption in conflict in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
31 Jul 24. Iraq: Elevated security risks around US regional bases following pre-emptive strike against PMF. On 30 July, the US conducted a pre-emptive strike against a Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) base in Iraq’s Jurf Sakhar (Babil governate), killing four PMF fighters. US officials stated that the strike targeted militants preparing to launch drones against coalition forces. The base hosted members of Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) group which announced that a number of its drone experts were killed in the strike. We assess that the pre-emptive strike likely signals an elevated US engagement with Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Syria in response to recent low-level attacks on US bases. As such, given the increasing likelihood of PMF retaliation, as well as the threats from Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) militias, security risks around the US bases will be elevated in the coming weeks. Additionally, following the Israeli assassinations of Hamas’ political leader and a senior Lebanese Hizballah (LH) commander, the likelihood of a broader retaliation against Israel will be heightened. Increased tensions with Israel will augment the risks of a complete breakdown in the de-facto truce between Iran’s proxies and the US forces. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Jul 24. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Meeting with Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Ms. Sabrina Singh provided the following readout: Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met today with Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro. The two officials discussed the historic momentum in U.S.-Philippine defense ties and reaffirmed their mutual commitment to strengthening the alliance, which has supported peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region for over 70 years.
Secretary Austin and Secretary Teodoro welcomed the historic announcements from the 2024 U.S.-Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue on Foreign Military Financing for the Philippines and the conclusion of a Security Sector Assistance Roadmap.
Secretary Austin reaffirmed U.S. support for the Philippines in defending its sovereign rights, and the two officials discussed the importance of preserving the rights of all nations to fly, sail, and operate – safely and responsibly – wherever international law allows.
Both officials emphasized their commitment to strengthening the U.S.-Philippine alliance in support of a shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, including through cooperation with like-minded partners and bilateral initiatives to strengthen information-sharing, enhance the capability of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, and invest in U.S. rotational force posture under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. (Source: U.S. DoD)
30 Jul 24. Separated Afghan families to be reunited. Afghans resettled in the UK under Pathway 1 of the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme will be reunited with their families. Afghan families separated during the evacuation from Kabul in August 2021 will no longer be left in limbo as the Home Secretary today confirms the expansion of the UK’s flagship Afghan resettlement scheme, the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme (ACRS).
Afghans who were evacuated to the UK under Pathway 1 of the ACRS who travelled without their immediate family members can now refer their closest family members. This includes children who were under the age of 18 at the time of the evacuation, and spouses or partners, for relocation to the UK. Children evacuated without their parents will also be able to make a referral to relocate their parents or siblings here, and can be supported to complete their application by a trusted adult.
UK-based Afghans will be able to submit a referral for their family members via an online form which will be available from today (Tuesday 30 July). The window for referrals will remain open for 3 months until 30 October 2024. The government will consider additional family members in exceptional circumstances.
Immigration and Citizenship Minister Seema Malhotra said:
It’s been almost 3 years since the evacuation of Kabul, and yet there remains an urgent need to ensure that those who assisted our efforts in Afghanistan by upholding democracy, freedom and human rights, often at huge personal risk to themselves and their families can be reunited.
It is our moral duty to ensure that families who were tragically separated are reunited and are not left at the mercy of the Taliban, which is why I have expanded ACRS so that those who were left behind can be resettled in the UK. Afghans did right by us, and we will do right by them, ensuring our system is fair and supports those most-at risk and vulnerable.
Operation Pitting, which took place between 13 and 28 August 2021, was one of the UK’s largest airlifts with over 15,000 people evacuated from Kabul in 2 weeks. The speed and unprecedented circumstances of the evacuation led to people being evacuated to the UK without their immediate family members.
During Operation Pitting, the UK ‘called forward’ for evacuation a number of people identified as being particularly at risk including female politicians, members of the LGBT+ community, women’s rights activists and judges. These people were resettled in the UK under Pathway 1 of the ACRS which prioritises the resettlement of vulnerable Afghans who are eligible. The scheme remains open and the government will continue to work with the UNHCR, likeminded partners, and countries neighbouring Afghanistan to support people’s safe passage to the UK.
Under the expansion of the scheme, family members will also need to attend a visa application centre to submit their biometrics and travel documents before their visa is issued and they can travel to the UK. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
29 Jul 24. North Korea spurs South Korea’s defence spend to $54.7bn by 2029. Strategic investments fuel South Korea’s military modernisation amid North Korean threats.
Strategic funding is driving South Korea’s military modernisation in the face of North Korean threats. Source: Stock for you/Shutterstock
South Korea’s defence budget is on a trajectory to reach $54.7bn by 2029, an increase driven by escalating tensions with North Korea.
South Korea’s escalating defence expenditure, projected to grow from $45.2bn in 2024 to $54.7bn in 2029, highlights an effort to counteract the persistent threats from its northern neighbour. According to an analysis of South Korea’s defence market by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics firm, this financial commitment is part of a broader strategy to strengthen South Korea’s security posture and modernise its military assets.
GlobalData’s report, “South Korea Defense Market Size and Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Key Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2024-29,” delves into the factors driving this surge in defence spending. Despite a dip from $46.2bn in 2021 to $42.3bn in 2022, the budget rebounded to $45.2bn in 2024, reflecting renewed prioritisation of defence by South Korean policymakers.
A portion of this budget is earmarked for the acquisition of modern defence equipment, which is expected to rise from $13.4bn in 2024 to $16.5bn in 2029. These funds will support the procurement of platforms such as the F-35 aircraft and missile defence systems like the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD). Enhancing naval capabilities, including the deployment of additional Aegis destroyers, is also a key focus.
Rouble Sharma, an aerospace and defence analyst at GlobalData, underlines the importance of South Korea’s defence modernisation strategy. “Korea also aims to create a robust domestic defence industry that not only caters to the needs of its armed forces but also positions itself as a formidable player in the global defence markets.”
South Korea’s efforts to develop indigenous defence platforms, such as the KF-21 aircraft and KSS-III submarine, are central to its goal of technological self-sufficiency.
At the Farnborough International Airshow 2024, South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace unveiled plans to develop an indigenous fighter jet engine to compete with established models like the GE F414.
These projects enhance the country’s military capabilities while creating opportunities for international exports and industrial partnerships. Recent successes include exporting defence platforms to nations like Poland, Australia, and India.
As North Korea continues to conduct missile tests and expand its nuclear capabilities, South Korea’s military modernisation becomes even more critical. The country’s reliance on domestic defence companies to supply modern platforms and weapon systems is expected to grow, alongside a focus on export opportunities to achieve economies of scale in defence production. (Source: army-technology.com)
29 Jul 24. Iraq: Merger of Turkmen force will likely drive short term security risks in Kirkuk and Saladin. On 26 and 27 July, dozens of Turkmens held protests in Kirkuk (Kirkuk governorate) and Tuz Khurmatu (Saladin governorate) to denounce the Popular Mobilization Forces’ (PMF) decision to merge its Northern Command with the Kirkuk and East Tigris command. The Northern Command was predominantly composed of Turkmen fighters and the merger will highly likely elevate ethno-religious tensions within the PMF. While there is a realistic possibility the PMF leadership will hold negotiations with the Turkmen fighters, the PMF is unlikely to revoke the decision. As such, small-scale Turkmen protests in Saladin and Kirkuk will likely persist in the coming days, elevating security and bystander risks, as clashes with security forces remain a possibility. There is also a realistic possibility Turkmen protesters will block major roads in Kirkuk, including the highway connecting with the capital Baghdad, elevating moderate mobility risks throughout the governorate. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Jul 24. Philippines-China: Successful resupply mission highlights degree of caution; significant differences remain. On 27 July, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) confirmed the successful completion of a rotation and reprovisioning (RORE) mission to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal on the same day. The DFA stated that ‘no untoward incidents’ occurred and the mission was ‘conducted under the ambit of the understanding’ reached with China last week. The Chinese foreign ministry claimed it was informed ahead of the mission and let it proceed after an ‘on-the-scene confirmation’. Manila has disputed this claim, stating that Beijing was not notified beforehand and that Chinese coast guard vessels were in the vicinity during the mission but at a ‘reasonable distance’. Disputes over each state’s roles in the mission highlight continued ambiguity and moderate tensions related to last week’s arrangement, which neither side has fully published. However, the lack of confrontation compared to the previous re-supply mission likely indicates that both sides seek to avoid a diplomatic or military escalation at present. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Jul 24. Mali: Significant military losses raise government stability risk, likely to prompt augmented security in Bamako. Between 25-26 July, the Permanent Strategic Frame for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD) Tuareg rebel group killed at least 20 Wagner group personnel according to Russian sources, in fighting around Tinzaouaten (Kidal region) on the Algerian border. The Malian army has claimed only two of its soldiers were killed in the joint operation, but this is likely incorrect. The losses come amid mounting public criticism of government inability to improve security, with attacks by al-Qaeda and IS-aligned jihadist groups taking place across Mali, including increasingly southern Mali and near the capital Bamako. While the CSP-PSD are highly unlikely to imminently retake regional capital, Kidal, it will further undermine confidence in the military, raising government stability risks and the threat of internal challenges to interim president Assimi Goita’s leadership. As such, the security forces are likely to augment their presence in Bamako over the coming days, increasing movement disruption through the city. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jul 24. Japan-United States-Republic of Korea Trilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statement. Japan Minister of Defense Kihara Minoru, United States (U.S.) Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, and Republic of Korea (ROK) Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik convened a Trilateral Ministerial Meeting on July 28, 2024, in Japan for the first time in history. The three defense leaders recalled their commitment to strengthening trilateral security cooperation following the U.S.-Japan-ROK Summits at Phnom Penh and Camp David. The Secretary and two Ministers discussed shared regional security concerns, and renewed their commitment to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific region, and beyond.
The three defense leaders recalled their enduring commitment to strengthen trilateral security cooperation to deter nuclear and missile threats posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) as well as shared recognition and concerns about the security environment, as reiterated in the Joint Statement of the U.S.-Japan-ROK Ministerial Meeting on June 2, 2024 in Singapore. They expressed grave concern over the increasing military and economic cooperation commitment between the Russian Federation and the DPRK, as highlighted by the signing of the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”, which is contrary to multiple UN Security Council resolutions and is a concerning development for many countries in the region. They also condemned the DPRK’s recent diversification of nuclear delivery systems, tests and launches of multiple ballistic missiles, and other relevant activities. The Secretary and the Ministers expressed concern about other provocative actions by the DPRK that could escalate tension on the Korean Peninsula, and urged the DPRK to immediately cease such actions. In addition, they shared assessments of recent maritime and air military activities in the Indo-Pacific region, including the South China Sea.
As emphasized at the Camp David Summit, the Secretary and the Ministers reaffirmed that they strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the waters of the Indo-Pacific, and they shared concerns about actions that are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). They stressed the importance of fully respecting international law including the freedom of navigation and overflight.
The three defense leaders commended the successful execution of the multi-domain trilateral exercise “FREEDOM EDGE,” through which Japan, the United States, and the ROK expressed their shared resolve to promote trilateral interoperability to safeguard freedom and ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, including the Korean Peninsula.
Today, the three defense leaders signed the Memorandum of Cooperation on the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework among the Department of Defense of the United States of America, the Ministry of Defense of Japan, and the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Korea (TSCF) and announced that it has come into effect. The TSCF institutionalizes trilateral security cooperation among defense authorities, including senior-level policy consultations, information sharing, trilateral exercises, and defense exchange cooperation, to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific region, and beyond. Accordingly, the Secretary and two Ministers reaffirmed the unwavering nature of the new era of trilateral cooperation.
The two Ministers and the Secretary concurred to convene the TMM in person in the ROK next year, in accordance with their expressed intent to host the meeting on a rotational basis. The three defense leaders will further develop trilateral cooperation to effectively address regional challenges, provocations, and threats. (Source: U.S. DoD)
27 Jul 24. Joint Press Release for the ROK-U.S. Defense Ministerial Meeting. On July 28, 2024, Minister of National Defense Shin Wonsik and Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met in Tokyo to hold discussions on major issues facing the ROK-U.S. Alliance, including the security of the Korean Peninsula and the region, strengthening Alliance capabilities for deterrence and defense, and opportunities to deepen the Alliance.
The Minister and the Secretary exchanged views on the recent Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) situation and reaffirmed their resolve to deter and respond to DPRK threats and provocations, based on the combined defense posture and capabilities of the Alliance. Minister Shin emphasized that the recent ongoing act of DPRK sending trash balloons is a clear violation of the Korean Armistice Agreement and a threat to ROK sovereignty. The two leaders strongly urged North Korea to immediately cease these provocative acts.
The two leaders discussed Russian-DPRK military cooperation and made clear that illegal arms trade and transfer of high technology between Russia and the DPRK constitute a clear violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs). The two officials stressed that they will continue to enforce the UNSC sanctions, in close cooperation with the international community.
The Minister and the Secretary welcomed the tremendous progress in the first year of the Nuclear Consultative Group, as evidenced by the signing of the ‘ROK-U.S. Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula’ (hereinafter, Guidelines). Two leaders reaffirmed that as both President Biden and President Yoon stated, the Guidelines provide a solid foundation for enhancing U.S.-ROK extended deterrence cooperation in an integrated manner. Secretary Austin and Minister Shin noted that the Guidelines further strengthen the practical posture and capability of the Alliance to deter and respond to advancing DPRK’s nuclear and missile threats. Based on the Guidelines, the Minister and the Secretary noted the importance of implementing the key tasks of the NCG. In addition, the Secretary reaffirmed that the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence to the ROK is backed by the full range of U.S. capabilities including nuclear, conventional, missile defense, and advanced non-nuclear capabilities.
The Minister and the Secretary discussed the importance of faithfully implementing the ‘Defense Vision of the ROK-U.S. Alliance.’ Both sides agreed to intensify efforts to modernize Alliance capabilities and evolve into a science and technology alliance. They pledged to continue to seeking cooperative measures to enhance defense industrial cooperation, including co-sustainment opportunities. In addition, the two leaders pledged to expand cooperation with the United Nations Command and UNC member states, and strengthen cooperation across the Indo-Pacific region with partnerships like the Association of South East Asian Nations and the Pacific Islands.
Minister Shin and Secretary Austin affirmed that the ROK-U.S. Alliance is stronger than ever, and they pledged to continue efforts to enhance the Alliance’s contributions to peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region. (Source: U.S. DoD)
28 Jul 24. Joint Statement of the U.S.-Japan Ministerial Meeting on Extended Deterrence. Minister for Foreign Affairs Kamikawa, Minister of Defense Kihara, Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin (referred to collectively as “the Ministers”) convened a U.S.-Japan ministerial meeting on extended deterrence in Tokyo, on July 28, 2024.
Since 2010, U.S. and Japanese officials have coordinated on extended deterrence policy primarily through the U.S.-Japan Extended Deterrence Dialogue (EDD). The Ministers highlighted the steady progress in strengthening this coordination and deepening discussions on extended deterrence, including through periodic review of the EDD’s activities and by leveraging the Alliance Coordination Mechanism.
The Ministers shared assessments of an increasingly deteriorating regional security environment, including North Korea’s continued destabilizing behavior and sustained pursuit of its unlawful nuclear and ballistic missile programs, China’s accelerating and opaque expansion of its nuclear arsenal, and Russia’s undermining of arms control and the global nonproliferation regime, including through its expanding military cooperation and unlawful arms transfers with North Korea. Under these circumstances, the United States and Japan reiterated the need to reinforce the Alliance’s deterrence posture, and manage existing and emerging strategic threats through deterrence, arms control, risk reduction, and nonproliferation.
The Ministers reaffirmed both countries’ commitment to close consultations on U.S. nuclear policy and posture, as well as the relationship between nuclear and non-nuclear military matters within the Alliance. They reaffirmed their intent to continue discussions on both countries’ deterrence capabilities and measures. The Ministers also reaffirmed their intent to ensure full bilateral coordination through the Alliance Coordination Mechanism throughout every phase of a developing situation.
The Ministers underscored the significance of the ministerial meeting in strengthening deterrence, and confirmed that both countries, through the EDD, will continue to explore how best to reinforce extended deterrence in order to promote regional stability and deter the outbreak of conflict. (Source: U.S. DoD)
28 Jul 24. U.S. Intends to Reconstitute U.S. Forces Japan as Joint Forces Headquarters. Through a phased approach, the U.S. plans to convert U.S. Forces Japan into a joint force headquarters which will report to the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the U.S. secretary of defense said today following the conclusion of a two-plus-two ministerial meeting in Tokyo.
Included in the meeting were Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japan’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa and Japan’s Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara.
“We welcome an historic decision to modernize our alliance command and control to better meet the challenges of today and tomorrow,” said Austin during a press briefing today that followed the high-level meetings. “The United States will upgrade the U.S. Forces Japan to a joint force headquarters with expanded missions and operational responsibilities.”
The new joint force headquarters will be commanded by a three-star officer and will serve as a counterpart to Japan’s own Japan Self-Defense Forces Joint Operations Command, Austin said.
“This will be the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation, and one of the strongest, improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years,” he said. “Japan’s new Joint Operations Command will further allow our forces to work together more closely than ever. And these new operational capabilities and responsibilities will advance our collective deterrence.”
Austin said the change is based on a desire to work more closely with Japan and enhance the effectiveness of the existing relationship.
Also part of the discussions, Austin said, were ways to increase bilateral presence in Japan’s Southwest Islands; a reaffirmation of the importance of cooperation on cybersecurity, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, cross-domain operations and bilateral exercises and training; and ideas for new areas for defense industrial cooperation.
According to a joint statement by the Security Consultative Committee, meeting participants discussed co-production opportunities to expand production capacity of both Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement missiles.
“Finally, we held a separate two-plus-two ministerial level meeting on extended deterrence, and that has never been done before,” Austin said. “During that meeting, I reaffirmed our ironclad commitment to defend Japan with the full range of our capabilities, including our nuclear capabilities.”
As part of the extended deterrence meeting, participants discussed, among other things, North Korea’s destabilizing activities in the region, including its unlawful nuclear and ballistic missile programs; China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal; and Russia’s unlawful arms transfers with North Korea.
Austin said he considered both meetings in Tokyo to be a success.
“We are reinforcing our combined ability to deter and respond to coercive behavior in the Indo-Pacific and beyond,” he said. “We’re reinforcing the rules-based international order that keeps us all safe. And the agreements that we’ve advanced today will ensure that the U.S.-Japan alliance remains a cornerstone of security and stability in the Indo-Pacific.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
26 Jul 24. US-Russia-China: Joint flight near US airspace underscores concern over Russia-China relations. On 25 July, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced that Russian and Chinese bombers came within 200 (321 km) miles of the Alaskan coast, marking the first time the two countries have jointly flown that close to US territory. The four bombers were first intercepted by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) on 24 July; they did not enter the sovereign airspace of the US or Canada. NORAD stated the activity was not considered a threat as Russia regularly conducts such activity. However, the joint flight underscores China’s increasingly assertive defence posture and closer relations to Russia. We assess that Russia will likely continue to fly aircraft in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the near term, but refrain from entering US airspace. Russian activity will possibly increase if Moscow detects NATO aircraft near its own border, raising the risk of tit-for-tat air activity. In the long term, the US will likely continue to strengthen its defence partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region to counter the Russia-China relationship. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Jul 24. Iraq: Attack on US airbase reflects elevated security risks, full resumption of hostilities unlikely. On 25 July, an unknown group launched four rockets targeting the US Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq’s Al-Anbar governorate, without causing any damage or casualties. This is the second attack targeting Ain Al-Asad in two weeks after a yet-to-be-identified group launched two one-way drones on 16 July. The attacks came following threats in the past months by several militias under the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) umbrella group to end the de-facto truce with the US. As such, the recent attack was likely conducted by one of the IRI militias. However, we assess that it is unlikely that the recent attack signals a full resumption of hostilities against the US forces in the region. Nevertheless, security risks around US assets and bases in the region will remain elevated in the coming weeks, likely elevating the US military security posture in the country and tensions with local militias. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Jul 24. UK urges China to prevent its companies supporting Russia’s military. Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy urged China to prevent its companies from supporting Russia’s military, his office said on Friday following a meeting between Lammy and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. The two spoke on the sidelines of an ASEAN Foreign Ministers event in Laos for what was their first meeting since Lammy took office following the Labour Party’s July 4 British election win.
“The Foreign Secretary underlined the UK’s ironclad commitment to Ukraine and urged China to prevent its companies supporting Russia’s military industrial complex which poses a material threat to international security and prosperity,” the British statement said.
The foreign office described the meeting as constructive and said Lammy used it to set out the government’s “long-term, consistent and strategic approach to UK-China relations.”
“He set out that the government would cooperate where we can, compete where needed and challenge where we must,” the statement said.
“He made clear the UK would always stand firm in prioritising our national security, as well as supporting human rights.”
Earlier, a statement issued by China following the meeting said Wang had told Lammy the two countries should “establish the right policy orientation, (and) uphold a balanced, pragmatic, open and cooperative attitude.” (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
25 Jul 24. Myanmar Rebel Forces Capture Strategic Military HQs from Junta Rulers. The ethnic Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and allied People’s Defense Force (PDF) groups, operating under the civilian National Unity Government (NUG), have captured a major regional military headquarters near the China border in a significant setback for Myanmar’s ruling junta. The capture of Lashio in Shan State and Mogok in the Mandalay Region, a major gem-mining center, marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict.
On Wednesday, the TNLA reported complete control of the remaining military junta camps in Mogok after approximately 30 days of continuous attacks. This follows the successful capture of Lashio, which houses the regional military headquarters, after 23 days of intense fighting. The TNLA’s spokesperson, Lway Yay Oo, announced the occupation, emphasizing the strategic advantage gained by isolating Mongmit, just 45 kilometers away. The successful operations in Lashio and Mogok are part of a broader offensive known as Operation 1027, initiated last October by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the TNLA, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army (AA). This coalition of ethnic minority insurgents resumed intensified attacks on June 25, breaking a five-month ceasefire brokered by China.
The ruling military council has denied the loss of its headquarters in Lashio, with local residents reporting ongoing clashes. Communications with Mogok have been severed, but social media footage shows local support for the insurgents. The junta has yet to issue an official statement regarding the capture of Mogok, and attempts to contact regional spokespersons have been unsuccessful.
The fall of these strategic towns represents a significant defeat for the junta and raises questions about its ability to maintain control over contested territories. The TNLA and allied forces continue to press their advantage, capturing additional territories and intensifying their offensive in the Mandalay and Shan regions. The junta’s use of airstrikes and its inability to reclaim lost ground underscores the growing strength and coordination of the rebel forces. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
26 Jul 24. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Growing Armenian-Western defence co-operation will sustain regional tensions. On 25 July, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) threatened military action against Armenia using ‘all means at its disposal’, citing recent unconfirmed border provocations and alleged attempted drone reconnaissance flights over Azerbaijani positions. The MoD also criticised joint Armenia-US military exercises, French military support for Armenia and the EU’s approval of around USD 10.8 m in assistance for Armenia’s armed forces. According to the ministry, these actions encourage Armenia to carry out such provocations and indicate its ‘preparation for another war against Azerbaijan’. The Armenian Foreign Ministry rejected the claims, instead insisting that Yerevan remains committed to achieving peace with Baku. Azerbaijan’s claims likely reflect opposition to Armenia expanding its defence relations with Western partners; military drills and arms agreements will highly likely represent triggers for heightened regional tensions in the coming months. Such rhetoric is highly likely aimed at deterring Western support for Armenia, with unconfirmed reporting of border incidents likely to be utilised in attempts to achieve this objective. (Source: Sibylline)
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