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26 Jul 24. US military, seeking strategic advantages, builds up Australia’s northern bases amid China tensions. The U.S. military is building infrastructure in northern Australia to help it project power into the South China Sea if a crisis with China erupts, a Reuters review of documents and interviews with U.S. and Australian defence officials show.
Closer to the Philippines than Australia’s east coast capital, Canberra, Darwin has long been a garrison town for the Australian Defence Force and a U.S. Marine Rotational Force that spends six months of each year there.
A few hundred kilometres to the south, RAAF Base Tindal is home to key elements of Australia’s airpower, and was a temporary base for U.S. jets in recent exercises.
As northern Australia re-emerges as a strategically vital Indo-Pacific location amid rising tensions with China, the United States has quietly begun constructing hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of facilities there to support B-52 bombers, F-22 stealth fighters, and refuelling and transport aircraft – all part of a larger effort to distribute U.S. forces around the region and make them less vulnerable.
“When you look at the positioning of northern Australia, particularly Darwin, in relation to the region … it’s always good to have multiple options in where you would want to put your forces in any type of crisis,” said Colonel Brian Mulvihill, commanding officer of the U.S. Marine Rotational Force.
Tender documents show that intelligence briefing rooms, upgraded runways for bombers, warehouses, data centres and maintenance hangars are in the works. Massive fuel storage facilities are already built, officials told Reuters on a rare visit to the two northern bases.
The projects, scheduled for construction in 2024 and 2025, make northern Australia the top overseas location for U.S. Air Force and Navy construction spending, with more than $300 million set aside under the U.S. congressional defence authorisations for those years.
There is more on the horizon: The U.S. Navy in June sought contractors for projects worth up to $2 billion to build wharves, runways, fuel storage and hangars in places including Australia’s Cocos Islands, and neighbouring Papua New Guinea and Timor Leste, under a program to counter China.
China’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Air Commodore Ron Tilley, the Royal Australian Air Force director-general of capital facilities and infrastructure, confirmed Washington was paying for the facilities at Darwin and Tindal, which would support U.S. operations.
“I don’t believe the U.S. would be spending all this money on our northern bases if there wasn’t an arrangement in place where they could use those facilities they are funding in times of conflict,” he added.
Canberra has drawn closer to its top security ally, Washington, under the AUKUS pact to transfer U.S. nuclear submarine technology to Australia next decade. Yet it has been largely silent on U.S. military construction in the north.
The Australian government recently highlighted its own plans to spend A$14 billion “hardening” the northern bases under the country’s biggest defence shakeup since World War Two.
The Australian and U.S. defence officials interviewed for this story said the new facilities should not be characterised as U.S. bases. Foreign basing is a sensitive domestic political issue for Australia; successive governments, including that of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, have said there are no U.S. bases on Australian soil.
“All the bases will remain Australian bases, but will be able to be utilised by our international partners,” Tilley said.
LAYING FOUNDATIONS
A 2011 agreement with Australia for the U.S. Marine Corps to temporarily train in Darwin has evolved into a regional deterrence role for about 2,000 Marines each year, Mulvihill said. War games this month included troops from the Philippines and Timor Leste.
The Marines are adding facilities at Darwin for their MV-22 Osprey aircraft, which can shuttle troops and equipment.
“Darwin is absolutely key terrain for us to help bring stability to the region,” he said in an interview at Darwin’s Larrakeyah Barracks. “We are more focused on that interoperability with the Australian Defence Force – how can we project power from northern Australia into the region.”
The United States wants to be able to disperse its forces from its largest bases in the Pacific, such as Guam and Okinawa, to reduce vulnerability.
For Australia, the northern bases offer greater access to the South China Sea, and with Tindal, a secure inland location for Australia’s F-35A stealth aircraft and its MQ-4C Triton long-range surveillance drone. A U.S. F-22 Raptor squadron shared the facilities this month during Exercise Pitch Black.
Tindal’s location is “vitally important”, said RAAF Base Tindal Wing Commander Fiona Pearce, with “greater reach into our near region”.
U.S. tender documents and engineering plans for Tindal show parking and hangars for six B-52 bombers and refuelling aircraft.
Australia is spending A$1.5 billion ($981.45 million) on Tindal’s redevelopment, and by July a new terminal, control tower, hangars and accommodation for extra personnel were near completion. Separate U.S. and Australian jet fuel stores sit side by side, and the tarmac is being dug up for the bomber expansion.
‘ALREADY A TARGET’
A third of residents in the sparsely populated Northern Territory are Indigenous Australians, although they make up just 10% of Darwin’s population.
Traditional Owners, as Indigenous Australians who have cultural access rights to an area of land or sea are referred to in Australia, can visit sacred sites on the bases, U.S. and Australian officials said.
Tibby Quall, 75, is among several Traditional Owners who say growing demand for defence-related housing in Darwin has led to land-clearing of forests they want protected, while rising prices have pushed Indigenous families out of the city.
Despite visitation rights, he says, his family has no real voice on how the land is used.
“Defence are the prominent citizens,” said Quall, a military veteran.
Darwin Mayor Kon Vatskalis says his city, where a Chinese company runs the port, welcomes the economic boost as the defence presence grows, although some residents have raised concerns that hosting the U.S. military could make the city a target.
“The reality is that we are already a target: We are the most northern port in Australia, we are the city that serves the gas and oil industry,” said Vatskalis, who supports the military expansion.
($1 = 1.5284 Australian dollars) (Source: Reuters)
25 Jul 24. North Korean hackers stealing military secrets, say US and allies.
North Korean hackers have conducted a global cyber espionage campaign in efforts to steal classified military secrets to support Pyongyang’s banned nuclear weapons programme, the United States, Britain and South Korea said in a joint advisory on Thursday.
The hackers, dubbed Anadriel or APT45 by cybersecurity researchers, are believed to be part of North Korea’s intelligence agency known as the Reconnaissance General Bureau, an entity sanctioned by the U.S. in 2015.
The cyber unit has targeted or breached computer systems at a broad variety of defence or engineering firms, including manufacturers of tanks, submarines, naval vessels, fighter aircraft, and missile and radar systems, the advisory said.
Victims in the U.S. have also included the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Randolph Air Force Base in Texas and Robins Air Force Base in Georgia, FBI and U.S. Justice Department officials said on Thursday.
In the February 2022 targeting of NASA, the hackers used a malware script to gain unauthorized access to its computer system for three months, U.S. prosecutors allege. Over 17 gigabytes of unclassified data were extracted.
“The authoring agencies believe the group and the cyber techniques remain an ongoing threat to various industry sectors worldwide, including but not limited to entities in their respective countries, as well as in Japan and India,” the advisory said.
Severe flooding hits northern Japan after record rainfall
Internationally isolated North Korea, known formally as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), has a long history of using covert hacking teams to steal sensitive military information.
To fund their operations, the hackers used ransomware to target U.S. hospitals and healthcare companies, U.S. officials allege.
On Thursday, the U.S. Justice Department said it had charged one suspect, Rim Jong Hyok, for conspiring to access computer networks in the United States and money laundering.
One of the ransomware incidents that Rim is charged with involved a May 2021 hack against a Kansas-based hospital that paid ransom after the hackers encrypted four of its computer servers.
The hospital paid in bitcoin, which was transferred to a Chinese bank and then withdrawn from an ATM in Dandong, China, next to the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge which connects the city to Sinuiju, North Korea, the indictment said.
The FBI said it is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information that would lead to Rim’s arrest. He is believed to be in North Korea.
FBI and Justice Department officials told reporters on Thursday they have seized some of the online accounts belonging to the hackers, including $600,000 in virtual currency that will be returned to victims of the ransomware attacks.
“The global cyber espionage operation that we have exposed today shows the lengths that DPRK state-sponsored actors are willing to go to pursue their military and nuclear programmes,” said Paul Chichester at Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre, part of the country’s GCHQ spy agency.
In August last year, Reuters exclusively reported that an elite group of North Korean hackers had successfully breached systems at NPO Mashinostroyeniya, a rocket design bureau based in Reutov, a small town on the outskirts of Moscow.
As was the case with that hack, APT45 – part of North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau intelligence agency – used common phishing techniques and computer exploits to trick officials at the firms they were targeting into giving away access to their internal computer systems, Thursday’s advisory said. (Source: Reuters)
25 Jul 24. Myanmar: Reported loss of regional command would represent significant setback for junta. On 25 July, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – an ethnic armed organisation (EAO) based in northern Shan state – claimed that it had taken control of the town of Lashio (Shan state). Local news reports also reported that the MNDAA and affiliated resistance groups have secured the town. Lashio is the military’s Northeastern Regional Military Command, therefore, if confirmed, the development would represent the most significant individual setback for the military junta since the coup. This follows the reported capture of the ruby mining town of Mogoke in the northern Mandalay region (near the border of Shan state) by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and linked civilian militias on 24 July. These developments would allow the TNLA and MNDAA to create a buffer to better secure the territories they took control of in northern Shan state following Operation 1027 in late 2023. This also follows the trend of the junta struggling for influence and control in the border states populated by ethnic minority groups. (Source: Sibylline)
25 Jul 24. USAF Creates “Super Squadron” Near Korean DMZ.
The United States Air Force has reinforced its presence on the Korean Peninsula by relocating nine F-16 fighter jets from Kunsan Air Base to Osan Air Base. This move establishes a “Super Squadron” aimed at optimizing combat effectiveness and increasing readiness in response to regional tensions.
The transfer of the F-16s, which will join the existing fleet at Osan, raises the number of fighter jets at the base to 31. The initiative, announced by the 7th Air Force, seeks to evaluate the impact of larger squadron sizes on sortie generation, maintenance, and manpower over a yearlong period. Lt. Gen. David R. Iverson highlighted the importance of this test, emphasizing its potential to enhance training effectiveness and combat capabilities.
Located just 50 miles south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), Osan Air Base is significantly closer to the frontline with North Korea compared to Kunsan Air Base, which is about 128 miles from the DMZ. The repositioning supports the U.S. commitment to the defense of South Korea amid rising tensions and recent provocations from North Korea, including the deployment of “garbage balloons” and strengthened military ties between Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The 7th Air Force, operating under the Pacific Air Forces, is responsible for air operations in South Korea. Its primary mission includes air defense, surveillance, and reconnaissance, as well as support for ground combat operations. The creation of the “Super Squadron” at Osan reflects the U.S. Air Force’s broader strategy to re-optimize its basing posture in the Indo-Pacific region, enhancing rapid response capabilities in the face of evolving threats.
The U.S. Air Force will monitor the effects of this realignment closely, assessing its impact on operational readiness and overall capability in the region. This move aligns with other recent adjustments, such as the deployment of F-15EX aircraft to Kadena Air Base in Japan and the addition of F-35As to Misawa Air Base. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
24 Jul 24. Joint Statement on U.S.-Iraq Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the Iraqi Ministry of Defense led the second U.S.-Iraq Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue in Washington, D.C., on July 22-23, 2024, reaffirming their commitment to security cooperation and shared interest in regional stability.
The two delegations discussed a range of bilateral security issues under the 2008 U.S.-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement and in recognition of our comprehensive partnership. Minister of Defense Thabit al-Abbasi met with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and representatives from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, U.S. Central Command, State Department, and National Security Council staff. The Iraqi delegation included the Chief of Defense, who also met separately with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Q. Brown, the Director of the Counterterrorism Service, the Deputy Commander of the Joint Operations Command – Iraq, and other senior defense officials. The United States and Iraqi delegations reaffirmed their commitment to developing Iraq’s security and defense capabilities and their determination to deepen security cooperation across a full range of issues to advance both countries’ shared interest in Iraq’s security and sovereignty, and in the stability of the region.
The 2024 Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue builds upon discussions held during Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani’s visit to Washington, D.C., in April of this year and last summer’s inaugural Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue. During the first Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue, the two sides resolved to establish a bilateral Higher Military Commission (HMC) to analyze three factors – the threat from ISIS, operational requirements, and the capability levels of the Iraqi security forces – to determine the future of the international military Coalition in Iraq. The dialogue continued during the Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue based on the work of the HMC over the past six months and in recognition of the upcoming ten-year anniversary of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS’s military mission in Iraq. A detailed joint statement on the future of the missions and presence of the Global Coalition in Iraq is planned to be issued soon after at the conclusion of the work of the HMC.
The United States and Iraq intend to continue to consult regarding strengthening bilateral cooperation to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS following more than a decade of cooperation between the Global Coalition and Iraq. The HMC noted the historic achievements of the Coalition in Iraq and paid tribute to the ms of victims of ISIS. These victims include hundreds of thousands of casualties suffered in the campaign to defeat ISIS in Iraq, such as those members of the Iraqi security forces, including the Peshmerga, and partner forces around the world, including the United States. The two sides confirmed the importance of Iraq continuing to provide support to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Syria and around the world.
In addition, the delegations reached an understanding on the concept for a new phase of the bilateral security relationship, which includes cooperation through liaison officers, training, and traditional security cooperation programs.
The delegations further discussed efforts to build the operational capacity of the Iraqi security forces through U.S. military assistance and security cooperation programs, including through Foreign Military Sales and Foreign Military Financing. Both sides emphasized the importance of continued cooperation to ensure the sustainability of U.S.-origin military equipment used by the Iraqi Security Forces. The delegations affirmed the value of professional military education and technical training programs and decided to strengthen both. They also explored opportunities to expand Iraqi participation in regional military exercises led by U.S. Central Command and to enhance the Iraqi military’s relationships with U.S. Central Command’s subordinate Service Component Commands. The two sides also decided to begin work on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to provide an enhanced framework for their bilateral security relationship in the years to come, including mechanisms to ensure the continued enduring defeat of the ISIS terrorist organization.
In support of Iraq’s sovereignty and security, the delegations reaffirmed that the advisory mission is present in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government to support the Iraqi security forces in fighting against ISIS and to support and develop the Iraqi security forces, including the Kurdish Security Forces. The Iraqi representatives reaffirmed its absolute commitment to protect personnel, advisors, convoys, and diplomatic facilities of the United States and international Coalition nations.
The delegations discussed the continued urgent need to repatriate displaced persons and detainees currently in northeast Syria to their countries of origin and to support reintegration efforts in local communities in Iraq. Repatriations represent an important line of effort in the continued fight against ISIS.
The successful completion of this second Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue underscores the two countries’ commitment to deepening bilateral security cooperation in all areas, including but not limited to the Iraqi-led enduring defeat of ISIS and security cooperation efforts. The U.S.-Iraq bilateral relationship promotes regional stability and represents the commitment of both nations to strengthen our overall Strategic Framework Agreement. (Source: U.S. DoD)
23 Jul 24. Austin Meets With Iraqi Counterpart After Security Cooperation Dialogue. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today underscored the United States’ commitment to Iraq’s continued sovereignty and security during a meeting with Iraqi Defense Minister Muhammad al-Abbasi at the Pentagon.
The secretary noted the strong U.S.-Iraqi ties built on years of partnership.
“Our bond is especially important as we mark the 10th year of the global coalition to defeat Daesh, and I’m proud to have been a part of that fight,” Austin said, referring to the militant group also known as ISIS.
“I’m grateful for the courage of the Iraqi security forces,” he said. “Fighting together with coalition forces they achieved a territorial defeat of Daesh.”
The Defense Department established the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve in October 2014 to formalize military actions against the threats posed by ISIS in Iraq and Syria
Today’s meeting capped the two-day Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue this week focused on how the mission of the global coalition against the Islamic State in Iraq would end and transition to an enduring bilateral security relationship between the U.S. and Iraq.
The exchange builds upon the work of the Higher Military Commission, which grew out of the inaugural JCSD in 2023 and reinforced the meeting earlier this year between President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Washington.
A U.S. and foreign service member wearing battle gear shake hands under camouflage netting.
Participants in this week’s talks included U.S. Central Command, the Joint Staff, the State Department, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency and the National Security Council. The Iraqi delegation included representatives from Iraq’s Ministry of Defense and armed forces, the Counterterrorism Service, and the Kurdish peshmerga.
Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Major Gen. Pat Ryder said yesterday that the joint participants in this week’s dialogue would consider the recommendations from the Higher Military Commission, which looked at the state of ISIS capabilities and the capacity and capabilities of Iraq’s security forces to address the threat.
Ryder added that the dialogue would continue “looking toward the future of the coalition, but then also the bilateral security cooperation between the U.S. and Iraq.”
While meeting with his counterpart today, Austin commended the Iraqi and U.S. governments for their combined efforts to “shaping the parameters to make the transition of Operation Inherent Resolve into enduring security partnerships among Iraq, the United States and other coalition countries.”
“The threat from Daesh and it’s ideology has evolved over the past decade,” Austin said. “Yet, Daesh continues to plot attacks … from the region and through its global affiliates. So, we must adapt the mission of Inherent Resolve to meet this changing threat.”
The secretary said the U.S. also continues to work to strengthen its bilateral security relationship with Iraq as the coalition transitions.
“We remain deeply committed to … Iraq’s sovereignty, security and stability,” Austin said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
23 Jul 24. High Court orders South Africa to suspend arms exports to Myanmar. The Gauteng Division of the High Court in Pretoria has set aside permits that were granted by the National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC) to facilitate arms transfers to Myanmar, and ordered the NCACC to suspend any contract or export permit to countries that have experienced an unconstitutional change of government or to have committed crimes against humanity, war crimes, or genocide.
The order was granted on 19 July on behalf of the Southern Africa Litigation Centre (SALC), represented by Lawyers for Human Rights (LHR). The two entities, along with Justice For Myanmar, an activist organisation that works on arms trade to Myanmar, welcomed the High Court’s order “as it will have immediate consequences not only for any future arms exports from South Africa to Myanmar, but to many other countries too.”
“Arms exports to a country that violates human rights and that underwent a military coup are illegal. This order is crucial in creating a more responsible and accountable arms trade regime in South Africa,” said SALC’s International Justice Cluster Lead, Dr Atilla Kisla.
“It shows that human rights and international law are limiting factors for arms exports. The example of Myanmar illustrates that words of condemnation or concern are not sufficient. Fighting for human rights requires action in the form of applying the law and suspending and/or cancelling permits if needed.”
“We welcome the High Court’s ruling in this matter as it protects the people of Myanmar by clarifying that such arms transfers are not in compliance with domestic and international law,” said Justice For Myanmar spokesperson Yadanar Maung. “Such permits should never have been approved in the first place. We hope to see South African arms transfer authorities give full effect to the Court’s decision.”
On 22 October 2022, the Southern Africa Litigation Centre filed an application seeking a declarator that the NCACC suspend any existing contract and/or export permit(s) pertaining to the transfer of arms to a country that has experienced an unconstitutional change of government; and/or a country reasonably suspected of having committed any crime against humanity, war crime, or genocide.
The SALC said that between 2017 and 2021, South Africa exported R215 m worth of military hardware to Myanmar.
According to NCACC annual reports, South Africa in 2017 exported 200 rangefinders worth R57.5 m and 10 transceivers worth R2.8m to Myanmar. In 2018, 150 communication systems worth R22.8m were exported along with 90 observation/target acquisition systems worth R13.3 m. In 2019, 201 items of ‘electronic equipment’ valued at R29.8m were sold to Myanmar. That year 570 communications devices worth R2.3m were also sold to the Asian nation.
The following year, 280 electronic equipment items worth R40.2m were exported to Myanmar along with 505 communication equipment items worth R2.1m, NCACC documents show. In 2021, 165 communication equipment items worth R47.4m were exported to Myanmar.
Giving background to the humanitarian and political situation in Myanmar, the SALC said that in 2016 and 2017, Myanmar authorities took measures against their own population that led to serious human rights violations in the country, a refugee crisis of the Rohingya minority, and allegations of genocide against the Rohingya minority.
In November 2019, the International Criminal Court (ICC) authorised an investigation by the ICC Prosecutor into the situation of Myanmar/Bangladesh for alleged crimes against humanity. In a separate case, on 23 January 2020, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued provisional measures against Myanmar and directed Myanmar to act in accordance with the Genocide Convention in relation to the members of the Rohingya group in its territory. On 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military overthrew the democratically elected government in an unconstitutional coup. Since the coup, no South African defence exports have been authorised to Myanmar.
According to the NCACC Act, the NCACC is required to cancel, amend or suspend a permit “if it is in the interest of maintaining and promoting international peace or avoiding repression and terrorism”.
The High Court ruling could have implications for other South African defence exports to countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which have intervened militarily in Yemen, and which are big customers for South African defence products. South Africa has also exported weapons to states engaged in domestic conflict, including Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
This is not the first time the NCACC has faced legal action. In 2020, Open Secrets and Lawyers for Human Rights, through a Promotion of Access to Information Act (PAIA) request, demanded to know which companies had exported to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They were not satisfied with the NCACC’s response, and launched litigation. As the NCACC did not respond, a default judgement was issued for the NCACC to provide a list of exporting companies. Open Secrets also sought a judicial review of NCACC exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The latest SALC High Court application was unopposed, with NCACC secretariat head, Advocate Ezra Jele, telling Daily Maverick that he was unaware of the latest judgement. The defence industry has expressed frustration at the inability of the NCACC to be aware of these legal cases, never mind challenge them. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
23 Jul 24. Togo: Instability in Burkina Faso will enable further cross-border attacks, driving security risks. On 20 July, a large-scale attack by the Al Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) on a military post in Kpankankandi (Savanes region) 6-9 miles (10-15km) from the Burkina Faso border killed at least 10 Togolese soldiers. Witnesses claim that hundreds of JNIM fighters were involved in the attack, underlining JNIM’s capacity to move large groups of fighters through Burkina Faso, where the state only controls around half of its national territory. The attack likely reflects JNIM’s efforts to force the Togolese military to abandon more vulnerable forward positions and consolidate its resources in larger bases, thereby giving JNIM greater freedom of movement in northern Togo. As such, we assess that the group will likely conduct further cross-border attacks on Togolese rural outposts as it attempts to secure a local presence in Togo over the coming months. This will drive threats to overland movement in the north of the Savanes region and elevate kidnap and attack risks to staff, particularly for NGOs active in rural communities. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Jul 24. Uganda: Heightened security posture ahead of protests will drive operational disruption in capital. Earlier on 23 July, the authorities deployed military and police personnel around the parliament building and in the centre of the capital Kampala in response to planned anti-government protests organised online by anti-corruption activists. The authorities banned the protest citing concerns over the infiltration of criminal elements. However, participants have gathered in Kampala regardless, elevating the likelihood that the security forces will forcibly disperse the demonstration, driving exposure to tear gas and possibly live ammunition to bystanders. The security forces have blocked off roads to parliament, exacerbating city-wide movement disruption. The protest will increase risks of arbitrary arrests and a broader clampdown on dissent, with the government already arresting three members of the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP), which voiced its support for the protest. We assess that such a clampdown will drive the risk of further demonstrations but will likely reduce the risk of prolonged or sustained action. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Jul 24. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Poor enforcement of interim accord will possibly raise armed conflict risks. On 21 July, a senior Azerbaijani presidential advisor, Hikmet Hajiyev, proposed the signing of a document outlining the basic principles of a future peace treaty with Armenia while the two nations resolve outstanding issues. Hajiyev said this accord would be a temporary measure, but form a basis for bilateral ties and neighbourly relations. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed on 20 July that the text of a peace treaty was near completion. However, Aliyev insisted that it would be impossible to sign until Armenia removes an indirect reference in its constitution to the independence of the once-breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. Although Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has advocated for creating a new constitution, this would highly likely be unpopular in Armenia and perceived as appeasing Azerbaijani interests. We assess that an interim arrangement would realistically be less robust, increasing the possibility of weak adherence to its terms. This would possibly increase the risk of border skirmishes or, in the worst-case scenario, a resumption of hostilities. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Jul 24. DoD Announces Publication of 2024 Arctic Strategy. Today, the Department of Defense (DOD) released its 2024 DOD Arctic Strategy. This is the first update to DOD’s approach to the region since 2019.
“The Arctic region of the United States is critical to the defense of our homeland, the protection of U.S. national sovereignty, and the preservation of our defense treaty commitments,” said Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks. “Our Arctic strategy will guide the Department’s efforts to ensure that the Arctic remains a secure and stable region.”
The 2024 DOD Arctic Strategy lays out steps DOD will take, working alongside our Allies and partners, to preserve the Arctic as a secure and stable region in which the U.S. Homeland is defended and our vital national interests are safeguarded. It builds upon guidance laid out in the 2022 National Security Strategy and 2022 National Defense Strategy and is part of DODs effort to implement the 2022 National Strategy for the Arctic Region.
“This strategy is very action oriented, which distinguishes it from previous Arctic Strategies” Deputy Assistant Secretary for Arctic & Global Resilience Iris Ferguson said. “We unpack where we need to sustain our investments, especially in critical capabilities. What do we have to see? How do we communicate? Do we have the right equipment to operate in the region? My office exists to champion these capabilities, which are vital to the successful implementation of our strategy.”
The Arctic region is undergoing rapid change, both strategically and physically. The People’s Republic of China (PRC), which remains DOD’s pacing challenge, seeks increasing access and influence in the Arctic, while Russia remains an acute threat in the region despite its losses in Ukraine. Increasingly, these two competitors are collaborating in the Arctic with implications for the security of the United States and our Allies and partners. At the same time, Finland and Sweden’s historic decision to join NATO brings all like-minded Arctic states into the NATO Alliance and presents new opportunities for collaboration and cooperation. All of this is underscored by the impact of climate change on the Arctic, which is warming at least three times faster than the rest of the world and increasingly opening to more human activity.
To address this dynamic security environment, DOD will adopt a “monitor-and-respond” approach to the Arctic, supported by robust domain awareness cooperation with our highly capable Allies and partners, and underpinned by the deterrent value of DOD’s ability to deploy the Joint Force globally at the time and place of our choosing. The ways DOD will execute this approach are grouped into three main lines of effort:
- DOD will enhance its capabilities to campaign in the Arctic especially its domain awareness, communications, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.
- DOD will engage with Allies and partners to uphold defense and deterrence in the Arctic, build interoperability, and increase its understanding of how to operate in the region.
- DOD will exercise calibrated presence in the Arctic by regularly training in the region and conducting routine operations critical to upholding deterrence and homeland defense. (Source: U.S. DoD)
22 Jul 24. U.S., Iraqi Officials Hold Pentagon Meeting to Discuss Security Cooperation. U.S. and Iraqi officials are meeting at the Pentagon to discuss when and how the mission of the global coalition against the Islamic State in Iraq would end and transition in an orderly manner to an enduring bilateral security partnership, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.
The Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue meetings will continue tomorrow and build upon the work of the Higher Military Commission, which grew out of an April meeting between President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Washington.
“Our convening of this dialogue this week reflects both nations’ commitment to strengthen the bilateral security relationship based on the work of the HMC over the past several months, and in recognition of the upcoming 10-year anniversary of the Global Coalition’s military mission in Iraq,” Ryder said.
The U.S. delegation at the talks include participants from U.S. Central Command, the Joint Staff, State Department, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency and the National Security Council. The Iraqi delegation includes participants from Iraq’s Ministry of Defense and armed forces, the Counterterrorism Service and the Kurdish Peshmerga.
The press secretary said there will be a readout of the meeting at its conclusion.
The Higher Military Commission has looked at the state of ISIS operational capabilities, the capacity and the capability of Iraqi security forces to address the ISIS threat, Ryder said. The Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue participants “will take information and recommendations from the HMC and be reviewing those this week with an eye towards looking toward the future of the coalition, but then also the bilateral security cooperation between the U.S. and Iraq,” the general said.
Ryder also said that Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke twice with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over the weekend as Israel launched attacks on Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis attacked Tel Aviv and killed an Israeli civilian and wounded others. “During their discussion, Secretary Austin acknowledged Israel’s action followed months of Houthi attacks against the State of Israel, and he reaffirmed the ironclad commitment of the United States to Israeli security and right to self-defense,” Ryder said.
The press secretary said Austin received short warning of the Israeli operation and U.S. forces in the region played no role in the attack. (Source: U.S. DoD)
22 Jul 24. New DOD Strategy Calls for Enhancements, Engagements, Exercises in Arctic. The Defense Department today released its 2024 Arctic Strategy. The strategy acknowledges how environmental changes are affecting the Arctic region, details the implications for U.S. security and spells out how the department plans to be ready to meet new challenges there.
“The Arctic region of the United States is critical to the defense of our homeland, the protection of U.S. national sovereignty and the preservation of our defense treaty commitments,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said today during a briefing at the Pentagon. “Our Arctic strategy will guide the department’s efforts to ensure that the Arctic remains a secure and stable region.”
Eight nations have a presence in the Arctic, including Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, the United States and Russia. All have interests there for both commerce and security.
Climate changes have meant the melting of ice in the Arctic and the opening of new sea routes, which means new opportunities for commerce and resource exploitation, but also increased risk to nations whose borders were previously protected by the region’s inaccessibility.
“Climate change is fundamentally altering the Arctic, and with it, geopolitics and U.S. defense missions,” Hicks said. “The readiness of our forces for those missions is always foremost on our minds, and that’s why for decades, across Republican and Democratic administrations, the department has been seeking to ensure our military capabilities can meet the mark, even in the face of a changing climate.”
Climate change and the shifts in the operating environment, Hicks said, mean the U.S. must rethink how to protect warfighters and prevent conflict.
The People’s Republic of China, not an Arctic nation, is increasing its presence in the Arctic. The PRC operates three icebreakers in the Arctic, for instance, and has a military presence there as well. The Chinese military has also demonstrated its ability to operate in the Arctic by conducting operations with the Russian navy, for instance.
“While not an Arctic state, the PRC seeks greater influence in the region, greater access to the region, and a greater say in its governance,” Hicks said. “That’s concerning given that it’s the only strategic competitor with the will and increasingly the wherewithal to remake the international order.”
Russia’s presence in the Arctic, including its military presence — the largest of all Arctic nations — can hold U.S. and allied territories at risk. At the same time, Russia is increasing its presence in the Arctic by reopening Soviet-era military installations.
“Russia continues to pose an acute threat to security and stability in the region,” Hicks said. “Russia has continued to build up its military infrastructure in the Arctic and assert excessive claims over Arctic waters.”
Russia is also partnering with China, Hicks said, and this presents additional concerns for U.S. defense.
“We’ve seen growing cooperation between the PRC and Russia in the Arctic, commercially, with the PRC being a major funder of Russian energy exploitation in the Arctic, and increasingly militarily, with Russia and China conducting joint exercises off the coast of Alaska,” Hicks said. “All of these challenges have been amplified because the effects of climate change are rapidly warming temperatures and thinning ice coverage, and it’s enabling all of this activity.”
The DOD’s 2024 Arctic Strategy addresses these concerns in the Arctic with three lines of effort, including enhancing the capabilities of the joint force, greater engagement with allies and partners and exercising U.S. presence in the Arctic.
“Our Arctic strategy adopts a ‘monitor and respond,’ approach in the region,” Hicks said. “It is underpinned by robust domain awareness and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, cooperation with our allies and partners and deterrent power enabled by the agility of the joint force. The strategy focuses on enhancing our domain awareness and Arctic capabilities, engaging with our allies and partners and exercising calibrated presence in the region.”
Iris Ferguson, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for arctic and global resilience, said mission enhancement includes, among other things, a focus on domain awareness in the Arctic.
“We must improve our domain awareness and enhance our ability to detect and respond with our Canadian allies to threats to the homeland,” Ferguson said. “A key focus for my office is championing investments that will enhance our awareness of threats in the region. We want to make sure that we have the right sensing architecture and the right communications architecture for command and control.”
Also, a target for operational enhancements in the Arctic are enhancements to communications and data architecture; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities; infrastructure; and cold weather equipment and mobility.
With seven of the eight Arctic nations also members of NATO, the U.S. has great partnership opportunities in the region. The strategy directs the U.S. to take advantage of those partnerships and others, as a way to strengthen U.S. security.
“Our strong network of partners, including Arctic allies, federal, state, local and tribal partners, are key stakeholders in securing the Arctic and our homeland,” Ferguson said. “From the communities that host our bases and troops in Alaska, to our colleagues in the U.S. Coast Guard and the Department of Homeland Security, we all have a role to play to maintain the stability of the Arctic Region.”
Finally, the 2024 Arctic Strategy directs the department to enhance U.S. security through increased presence in the Arctic, including increased operations and military exercises.
“Exercising tactics and equipment is a prerequisite not only for success but for survival in the unique Arctic environment,” Ferguson said. “To this end, one of my office’s key implementation priorities will be ensuring that the joint force is equipped and prepared to operate there.”
The strategy calls for continued service-specific, joint, interagency and combined exercises as well as war games, simulations and tabletop exercises that focus on the Arctic. The strategy also calls for military services to conduct training in the Arctic to build experience operating there. (Source: U.S. DoD)
19 Jul 24. Taiwan’s provocative modernisation a gambit against China’s intrusion. Advanced military upgrades signal Taiwan’s readiness against rising threats.
Taiwan is enhancing its defence capabilities in response to increasing intrusions by China’s PLA. Source: JENG BO YUAN/Shutterstock
With mounting incursions by China’s PLA, Taiwan is boosting its defence capabilities.
In response to the increasing military provocations from China, Taiwan is modernising its armed forces with a focus on its Army, Air Force, and Navy. This overhaul, fuelled by a defence budget increase, aims to counter the threats posed by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and ensure Taiwan’s security and autonomy.
According to GlobalData’s “Taiwan Defense Market 2024-2029” report, Taiwan’s defence budget is projected to grow from $19.4bn (T$636.5bn) in 2024 to $23.4bn (T$767.8bn) by 2029. This financial commitment reflects the urgent need to enhance Taiwan’s defensive capabilities amid China’s frequent military drills near its airspace and territorial waters.
Bolstering aerial combat
Taiwan’s defence revamp is led by the Air Force, which is set to receive 56 F-16V Block 70/72 Viper aircraft. These jets are an upgrade from older models. By 2026, Taiwan plans to operate a fleet of 208 F-16s, a move designed to solidify its aerial combat and serve as a deterrent against Chinese air incursions.
In June this year, the US approved a $220m sale of F-16 spare and repair parts to Taiwan, highlighting ongoing US support for Taiwan.
China has suspended arms control and non-proliferation talks with the US, blaming Washington’s continued arms sales to Taiwan for escalating tensions. This move follows the US State Department’s recent approval of a $360m sale of loitering munitions to Taiwan, including Switchblade and ALTIUS systems.
Reinforcing ground defences
On the ground, Taiwan is enhancing its Army with 108 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks from the United States. This $1.4bn contract includes training for Taiwanese forces, ensuring operational readiness. The Abrams tanks are critical in maintaining a ground force capable of responding to any PLA aggression.
Expanding maritime capabilities
Taiwan’s Navy is also undergoing upgrades. A significant component of this modernisation is the construction of ten new 2,500-ton light frigates by Jong Shyn Shipbuilding. These vessels, along with the addition of MH-60R Seahawk helicopters from the United States, will improve Taiwan’s anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Moreover, the Hai Kun-class Indigenous Defense Submarine launch, part of a $12.3bn programme, marks an enhancement in Taiwan’s underwater surveillance and combat strength.
Self-reliance and regional stability
These military enhancements are part of Taiwan’s strategy to achieve self-reliance in defence. Under the National Defense Industry Development Act, Taiwan actively encourages domestic companies to participate in the defence sector, aiming to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers and build an indigenous defence industry. This initiative is important as Taiwan navigates its complex political landscape and seeks to maintain regional stability.
Taiwan’s military modernisation efforts highlight its resolve to defend its sovereignty against escalating threats from China. The investments in aircraft, main battle tanks, and naval vessels are pivotal in enhancing its defence posture and maintaining peace in a region marked by increasing geopolitical tension. For a detailed analysis of Taiwan’s defence strategies and future procurement plans, refer to GlobalData’s “Taiwan Defense Market 2024-2029” report.
21 Jul 24. Russia intercepts US bomber planes over Arctic. MiG fighter jets scrambled when radar detected US air force B-52H bombers approaching Russian territory over Barents Sea. Russian fighter jets buzzed two US bombers over the Arctic on Sunday in what Moscow’s ministry of defence described as an operation to defend its “state borders”.
The two MiG fighter jets were scrambled when radar detected two US air force B-52H bombers approaching Russian territory over the Barents Sea.
“As Russian fighters approached, the American strategic bombers turned away from the state border of the Russian Federation,” said the ministry.
The Barents Sea is divided between Russia and Norway, and stretches from the Kola Peninsula in northern Russia to the Svalbard Archipelago towards the North Pole.
US bombers flew over Finnish airspace
Antti Hakkanen, Finland’s defence minister, later said two US bombers had flown over Finnish airspace on Sunday morning, although it was unclear whether these were the same planes. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
22 Jul 24. China-Philippines: Escalation, security risks remain despite reported South China Sea agreement. On 21 July, the Philippines claimed it had come to a provisional arrangement with China regarding re-supply missions to a grounded Philippine vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre, at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The announcement followed a series of meetings between both sides as the situation significantly escalated in recent months (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 3 July 2024). Comments from China’s Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson on 22 July claim that Beijing will allow re-supply missions of humanitarian aid to the Filipino troops based on the vessel if China is informed in advance and an ‘on-site verification’ is permitted; the spokesperson also stated that it would not allow construction materials to be transported to the vessel to prevent the rusting ship from being reinforced. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs released a statement in response to the comments, indicating that they had not agreed to the conditions claimed by the Chinese side and will continue to assert its rights in the area. While the continued dialogue and attempted arrangement highlight that both sides are keen to avoid a significant escalation in the long term, we assess that neither China nor the Philippines are likely to relinquish their respective territorial claims, continuing to fuel long-term regional tensions and risks of escalation. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Jul 24. Growing cooperation between Russia and China in Arctic, Pentagon says. Russia and China are increasingly cooperating in the Arctic region, which could impact regional stability, the U.S. military said as it released its strategy for the Arctic region on Monday.
Russia has reopened hundreds of Soviet-era military sites in the Arctic, the report said. China, which describes itself as a “near-Arctic” state, also has ambitions there and has said it intended to build a “Polar Silk Road.” China has its eye on mineral resources and new shipping routes as ice packs recede with rising temperatures.
“Increasingly, the (People’s Republic of China) and Russia are collaborating in the Arctic across multiple instruments of national power,” the Pentagon’s report said.
“While significant areas of disagreement between the PRC and Russia remain, their growing alignment in the region is of concern, and (the Department of Defense) continues to monitor this cooperation,” it added.
Arctic sea routes are increasingly being used for connecting major economies across the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans as global warming shrinks ice packs and allows for longer ice-free periods at sea.
China and Russia have been working together to develop Arctic shipping routes as Russia seeks to deliver more oil and gas to China amid Western sanctions while China seeks an alternative shipping route to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Malacca.
Security scholars and regional military attaches say China’s reliance on Indian Ocean shipping routes are seen as a strategic vulnerability for Beijing, particularly in a conflict over Taiwan.
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The Pentagon report added that China was looking to leverage “changing dynamics in the Arctic to pursue greater influence and access, take advantage of Arctic resources, and play a larger role in regional governance.”
The Pentagon’s report added that the U.S. military had a “monitor-and-respond” strategy in the region that was built on intelligence collection, cooperation with allies and the ability to deploy military assets. (Source: Reuters)
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