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04 Jul 24. Hezbollah Commander Killed in Israeli Airstrike. A senior Hezbollah commander, Mohammad Nimah Nasser, also known as Hajj Abu Naameh, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. In retaliation, Hezbollah launched over 100 rockets and missiles targeting Israeli military positions.
The Israeli military confirmed the strike, describing Nasser as the head of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit, responsible for directing numerous attacks from southwestern Lebanon. Nasser’s death follows the killing of other high-ranking Hezbollah officials, including Taleb Sami Abdullah in June, and Wissam al-Tawil in January.
In response to the heightened tensions, diplomatic efforts have intensified. US and European mediators have been working to prevent a full-scale conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron and US Envoy Amos Hochstein have been in discussions to de-escalate the situation.
Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, reiterated that the group would halt its attacks if a full ceasefire is achieved in Gaza. However, he warned that Hezbollah’s response to Israeli aggression would not be limited by any pre-set rules or engagement ceilings.
The ongoing violence has resulted in significant casualties and displacement on both sides. In Lebanon, over 400 people, predominantly Hezbollah fighters, have been killed, while 25 Israelis, mainly soldiers, have also lost their lives. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
04 Jul 24. EU to fund Kenya Defence Forces to the tune of $21m plus. The defence component of Kenyan President William Ruto’s administration is on the receiving end of a 20 m euro (about $21.5 m) “assistance measure” from the European Union (EU) European Peace Facility (EPF).
The rationale behind the financial boost to the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) is explained as enhancing operational capabilities of the East African country’s air force, army and navy to protect territorial integrity and sovereignty and keep the wider population safe from internal and external threats. The “assistance measure”, according to a statement, will also contribute to securing border areas and countering increased al-Shabaab operations on the Somalia border.
The EPF funding will finance equipment and related services, including training where needed, the EU said.
Kenya Army infantry combat units and related combat support and combat service support units will receive tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), non-lethal interceptors and jammers, systems to defeat improvised explosive devices (IEDs), “electronic warfare means”, cross-country tactical military-type vehicles and a mobile medical post. To support the Kenya Navy’s efforts, naval marine units will be equipped with night vision goggles, life vests and specific personal protective equipment.
“This support,” the EU statement reads, “is a concrete deliverable of joint security and defence consultations held under the EU-Kenya strategic dialogue. By investing in the capacities and capabilities of its defence forces, the EU reaffirms its support to Kenya as a pillar of peace and stability in the region”.
The “assistance measure” is reportedly the first of kind made to the East African country since inception of the EPF in 2021. The fund supports security measures in African countries allied to the EU.
The EU assistance comes on the heels of a massive aid package from the United States, which in May revealed plans to transfer eight UH-1 ‘Huey’ and eight MD500 helicopters to Kenya between late 2024 and mid-2024 along with 150 M1117 4×4 armoured vehicles to improve regional security – the vehicles should arrive in September.
At the end of May, President Joe Biden welcomed Kenyan President William Ruto to the White House to strengthen ties between the two countries and mark 60 years of official US-Kenya partnership. Regarding defence, the White House announced plans to upgrade Manda Bay airfield in northern Kenya, with US and Kenyan officials set to sign a memorandum of understanding for the construction of a 10 000 foot runway. Kenya is also in the process of joining Operation ‘Gallant Phoenix’, a US-led multinational initiative based in Jordan aimed at sharing information on terrorist threats, further strengthening counter-terrorism cooperation between the two countries.
Biden also informed Congress he intends to designate Kenya as a Major Non-NATO Ally. This is the first designation of a sub-Saharan Africa nation as a Major Non-NATO Ally, the White House said.
The USA has provided to Kenya over $230 m in civilian security and defence sector funding since 2020, including assistance from the Massachusetts National Guard under the State Partnership Programme, alongside ongoing advisory and training efforts for Kenyan pilots, logistics personnel, and the Kenya Defence Forces’ Disaster Response Battalion. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
04 Jul 24. China-Philippines: Risk of escalation remains despite calls to defuse tensions. On 4 July, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr reportedly ordered the armed forces to defuse tensions, without specifying what this entails. On 2 July, diplomats from China and the Philippines met for the ninth Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) to discuss the South China Sea. Military tensions have been heightened since 17 June, when China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels blocked a Philippine re-supply mission to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands. On 2 July, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) stated that the two sides agreed to ‘de-escalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions’, noting ‘progress on developing measures to manage the situation at sea’. We assess that continued dialogue demonstrates that both sides want to avoid armed conflict (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 3 July 2024). However, there remains a risk of accidental clashes and unintended military escalation in the South China Sea as both countries remain intent on resolutely asserting their respective maritime claims. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Jul 24. Federal government announces ‘Future Made in Australia’ legislation. The Australian federal government has announced the introduction of “Future Made in Australia” legislative package to build a stronger, cleaner economy.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government will introduce the new Future Made in Australia Bill 2024 and Future Made in Australia (Omnibus Amendments No. 1) Bill 2024 to Parliament.
The legislation is reportedly aimed at unlocking private sector investment to build a stronger, more diversified, and more resilient economy powered by renewable energy that creates secure, well-paid jobs around the country.
“The Future Made in Australia legislation will bring together our policy work in this space to ensure it is an effective and practical strategy for Australia to seize this opportunity,” Prime Minister Albanese said.
“This legislative package is a key part of putting our Future Made in Australia plan into action, so Australia makes the most of the major economic and industrial opportunities of the energy transition.
“It embeds into law a disciplined and rigorous approach that will govern Future Made in Australia investments, to make the most of our net zero potential and ensure the benefits of these investments are widely shared and flow to local communities.”
Under the new strategy, Future Made in Australia will legislate new National Interest Framework and introduce a robust sector assessment process and outline the Community Benefit Principles that will apply to investment decisions.
The National Interest Framework sets forward criteria for identifying sectors that will be key to the net zero transformation and where Australia could have a genuine comparative advantage, or where there is an economic security or resilience imperative to invest in domestic capability. (Source: Defence Connect)
03 Jul 24. Middle East and North Africa continues to be the world’s least peaceful region. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains the least peaceful region of the world – a ranking it has held for nine consecutive years, according to the latest Global Peace Index (GPI) report. The 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI) ranks 163 states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. The report, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), states that four of the ten least peaceful countries on the 2024 GPI are in the MENA region.
The region recorded a small deterioration in peacefulness over the past year after several years of improvements. There were deteriorations on the deaths from internal conflict, deaths from external conflict, and neighbouring countries relations indicators, driven by the conflicts in Gaza and Sudan and the associated increase in regional unrest. Tensions in the region remain extremely high as of early 2024.
The most notable falls in peacefulness in the region occurred because of the October 7th terrorist attack in Israel, and the subsequent retaliatory military action by Israel in Gaza. Latest estimates suggest that over 35 000 people have been killed in the conflict, although the true number is likely to be far higher.
The conflict has also thrown the entire Middle East region into crisis, with Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen becoming involved. The risk of open warfare remains high, the IEP warned.
Yemen is the least peaceful country in the region and the least peaceful country overall on the 2024 GPI. This is the first time that it has been ranked at the bottom of the index. Peacefulness in Yemen fell over the past year, owing to deteriorations on the violent demonstrations, political instability, and neighbouring countries relations indicators. Yemen’s internal political instability has worsened in the past year due to deteriorating living conditions and rising social unrest. The internal strife in Yemen has been further exacerbated by regional tensions stemming from the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
The Houthis’ missile and drone assaults against Israeli targets intensified instability in the region by threatening critical maritime routes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. In response to these attacks the US and UK have intensified their military involvement in Yemen by launching missile, drone, and airstrikes against the group’s sites in northern Yemen since January 2024. This escalation represents a significant externalisation of Yemen’s civil conflict.
Although much of the attention in the region has been focused on the conflict in Gaza, there was also a significant deterioration in peacefulness in Sudan. Conflict erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after a plan to dissolve the RSF and integrate it with the army was proposed. The armed conflict has led to the displacement of ms of people. There have been reports of violent clashes and targeted attacks against civilians, with the RSF reported to have massacred 15 000 people in West Darfur in June 2023 with some estimates placing the total number of people killed at 150 000 since the war began. The increasing civil unrest and lawlessness has meant that humanitarian agencies and multilateral organisations are unable to safely operate in most locations, including in the capital city Khartoum.
After Yemen, Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine are the other least peaceful countries.
Globally, the IEP found that the average level of peacefulness had deteriorated once again, with 56 active conflicts raging around the world – the most since the end of the Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved.
Sub-Saharan Africa is the second least peaceful region of the world behind the Middle East and North Africa, with three of the ten least peaceful countries in the world found south of the Sahara.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces several security crises, most notably the increase in political unrest and terrorism in the Central Sahel region. Burkina Faso has the highest terrorism impact of any country in the world, and five of the ten countries with the highest terrorism impact are in sub-Saharan Africa.
The IEP report finds that conflicts are becoming more internationalised, with 92 countries now engaged in a conflict beyond their borders, the most since the inception of the GPI in 2008, complicating negotiation processes for a lasting peace and prolonging conflicts. The internationalisation of conflict is driven by increased great power competition and the rise of middle level powers, who are becoming more active in their regions.
The combination of these factors means that the likelihood of another major conflict is higher than at any time since the inception of the GPI.
The 2024 GPI says there has been a significant rise in both conflicts and battle deaths in the past two decades, with battle deaths reaching a thirty-year high in 2022. Regional conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict illustrate the devastating human cost and the complexity of modern warfare. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen over 2 000 fatalities per month for almost every month in the past two years, while neither side is making significant gains. The Gaza conflict has resulted in over 35 000 deaths since October 2023, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis. These conflicts are examples of ‘forever wars’, where prolonged violence becomes seemingly endless without clear resolutions, exacerbated by external military support, asymmetric warfare, and geopolitical rivalries. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
03 Jul 24. Mali: Jihadist attack highlights significant risks facing staff; further attacks are highly likely. On 2 July, unidentified militants killed at least 40 civilians in an attack in Djiguibombo (Mopti region). Although no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, the al-Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) maintains a strong presence in northern and central Mali and has conducted increasingly frequent attacks in Mopti in recent months. Militants reportedly targeted a wedding celebration, highlighting the security forces’ limited capacity to safeguard security in rural areas. In the coming days, there is a realistic possibility that the Malian armed forces and Russian Africa Corps will adopt an elevated posture in Mopti, erecting additional checkpoints along the RN15 highway and imposing a localised curfew. These measures will increase the risk of travel disruption and attacks against stationary vehicles during overland movement. We assess that further attacks are highly likely in the coming months, sustaining significant threats to staff in Mopti, particularly NGO staff engaged in rural development and faith-based projects. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Jul 24. China-Taiwan: Taiwanese fishing boat seizure points to greater scrutiny over Chinese-claimed waters. Earlier on 3 July, the China Coast Guard (CCG) reported that it detained a Taiwanese fishing boat operating near the coast of China close to the Taiwan-controlled Kinmen islands. The vessel allegedly violated an off-season fishing moratorium by trawling within a restricted area and using undersized nets. It was intercepted outside Taiwanese waters. The boat and its crew, including three Indonesian and two Taiwanese workers, were taken to Weitou Port (Fujian province, China). Taiwanese coast guard vessels attempting to intervene were dispersed by the CCG and communications with the boat were cut off. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) linked the incident to the CCG regulation implemented on 15 June which empowers the CCG to detain foreign vessels in Chinese-claimed waters. The development comes amid heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait, as China has ramped up pressure on Taiwan and its outlying islands since the election of President Lai Ching-te. In response, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council has heightened its travel alert for China to the second-highest level due to increased safety concerns. Despite the potentially volatile situation, encounters involving fishing boats from both sides have occurred before and are generally managed to avoid further escalation. As such, we assess that significant escalation linked to the incident is unlikely. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Jul 24. US adds six companies to trade restriction list, four for training China’s military. The United States added six companies to its trade restriction list on Tuesday, including four for their links to the training of China’s military forces, according to a government posting.
Two of the companies are in China, one in South Africa, two in the United Arab Emirates and one in Britain.
Global Training Solutions Limited and Smartech Future Limited, both in China, as well as Grace Air (Pty) Ltd and Livingston Aerospace Limited of the United Kingdom, were added over their ties to the Test Flying Academy of South Africa and the training of China’s military forces using Western and NATO sources, the posting said.
The Test Flying Academy of South Africa was put on the Entity List, as it is known, last year for training Chinese military pilots using Western and North Atlantic Treaty Organization sources.
UAE companies Mega Fast Cargo and Mega Technique General Trading were added for evasive conduct, and Mega Fast Cargo for shipping U.S.-origin goods to Russia, the posting said.
Companies on the Entity List, which is overseen by the U.S. Commerce Department, require licenses to ship U.S. goods and technology to them, which are likely to be denied.
“Preventing American know-how from training PRC military pilots and U.S. technology from aiding Russia enhances U.S. national security,” Commerce official Matthew Axelrod said in a statement. PRC refers to the People’s Republic of China.
The companies could not immediately be reached for comment.
The Commerce Department also added 13 companies to its Unverified List, including eight from China, because U.S. export control officers could not complete on-site visits to determine whether they could be trusted to receive U.S. origin technology and other goods.
U.S. exporters are required to conduct additional due diligence before sending items to companies on the Unverified List, and may have to apply for more licenses.
At the same time, the department removed eight companies from the Unverified List, including six from China, one from the United Arab Emirates and one from Russia.
Both the Entity List and Unverified List are tools the U.S. is using to stop sensitive American goods and technology from falling into the wrong hands. (Source: Reuters)
02 Jul 24. Mauritania acquires new military hardware from China.
Mauritania’s military has taken delivery of fire support vehicles, air defence systems, and unmanned aerial vehicles from China as it builds up its military capabilities.
The new equipment was inspected by Mauritanian President and Armed Forces Commander Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani on a 9 June visit to a military headquarters unit. He was seen with 20 WMA301 (PTL02) fire-support vehicles armed with 105 mm guns, and eight Yitian-L short-range air-defence systems, both of which are offered for export by Norinco.
The Yitian-L is mounted on a Dongfeng Mengshi tactical vehicle and has four TY-90 missiles, whereas the Yitian and newer Yitian II are both mounted on armoured personnel carriers and have eight missiles. The system has a radar with an 18 km range and ability to engage targets out to 6 km.
Agence Mauritanienne d’Information (AMI) reported that the ‘arsenal of military equipment’ is to modernise the Mauritanian military as dictated by the current geostrategic challenges in the subregion and the world. The new equipment was reported to include armoured vehicles, artillery, anti-aircraft systems, radar systems, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
While not shown during El Ghazouani’s inspection, the president’s office said the equipment included “highly effective reconnaissance and attack drones capable of covering the entire national territory, including territorial waters, around the clock”.
Mauritanian television showed footage of the president being briefed on the new UAVs, with a visual presentation saying the aircraft have an operational radius of 2 000km, an endurance of 36 hours, and ability to carry six guided missiles with a range of 14km.
Images posted online appear to show six Harbin BZK-005E UAVs in Mauritanian markings. Mena Defense reported Mauritania as the first export customer for the armed version of the BZK-005. The BZK-005 is an important type with the Chinese military, having entered service with the People’s Liberation Army Naval Air Force (PLANAF) as well as the PLA around 2009. It was developed by the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA – now Beihang University) and Harbin. It has a roughly 40-hour endurance and range of several thousand kilometres
Other military equipment seen during the 9 June inspection included a dozen Toyota Land Cruisers fitted with roof-mounted machineguns, and 15 Calidus MCAV-20 armoured vehicles manufactured in the United Arab Emirates. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
02 Jul 24. Taiwan: Increase in number, frequency of reservist call-ups will improve civil defence preparedness . On 1 July, the Taiwanese Ministry of the Interior announced plans to significantly increase the number of citizens called up for reserve training to 58,000, a response to historically low training rates. While this figure is a decrease from the initially expected 120,000 due to a postponed training date, it reflects a steady rise in the number of trained reservists (from 1,565 in 2021 and 6,505 in 2023). In February, the defence ministry introduced new rules to improve reservists’ combat readiness, increasing the duration of training to two weeks and frequency of call-ups from once every two years to annually. Reservists will be recruited in military and non-military emergency roles. The ministry intends to make it mandatory for reservists to undergo training at least once a year for eight years after retirement. We assess this adjustment is part of a broader effort to enhance Taiwan’s civil defence capabilities amid escalating military threats from China. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Jul 24. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Border delimitation progress will possibly aid peace process in coming months. On 1 July, the Armenian government claimed further progress has been made in ongoing talks on border delimitation with Azerbaijan. A statement from the office of Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan detailed that both countries’ commissions responsible for overseeing these matters have routinely exchanged draft regulations and held numerous discussions. It also outlined that negotiations between the two sides are continuing in a constructive manner and that they plan to finalise an agreement soon. However, the two sides pledged in April that they would approve the draft regulation by 1 July. Neither side has provided details as to why the deadline was not met or if any complications arose during talks. As both the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments offered limited details, the extent of their progress is difficult to ascertain. Nevertheless, we assess that the statements from Baku and Yerevan indicate willingness to co-operate and advance on the issue of border delimitation, though it remains unclear whether serious progress towards peace will be made in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Jul 24. Iran: Presidential election run-offs sustain disruption, policy risks. On 28 June, Iran held the first round of its presidential election to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi, with reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalil proceeding to a second round on 5 July, having secured 42.5% and 38.6% of the vote, respectively, amid low voter turnout at 39.9%. While there were no reports of significant skirmishes on 28 June, sporadic altercations at polling stations remain likely, elevating bystander risks. An elevated security posture will remain in place through the end of the week, elevating travel disruptions and risk of arbitrary detentions. Businesses will likely close during polling hours, driving limited supply chain and service access disruption. Terrorist attacks remain a latent threat, particularly in rural areas where the security posture is reduced. There is a realistic possibility that either candidate will win the second round, with a higher turnout likely favouring Pezeshkian, moderately raising policy risk. Debates on 1 and 2 July will likely determine if Pezeshkian can win over moderates. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Jul 24. Bolivia: Allegations against president will sustain short-term stability, unrest risks. In an interview on 30 June, former president Evo Morales stated that President Luis Arce had ‘deceived the Bolivian people’, alleging that the 26 June coup plot was carried out at Arce’s direction. General Juan José Zúñiga (who was sentenced to six months of preventative detention on 28 June) also alleges that the coup was conducted under the president’s orders. However, Arce denies any prior knowledge of the plot. The allegation that Arce engaged in a ‘self-coup’ to expand his power has also been cited by prominent members of the political opposition. This will likely sustain criticism of Arce’s leadership ahead of the upcoming general elections in 2025. This will be exacerbated by possible Congressional efforts to condemn, investigate or prosecute Arce’s alleged involvement. In parallel, Bolivia’s deteriorating economic environment and depleted cash reserves will elevate domestic unrest and strike risks in the short-to-medium term. Ahead of the 2025 elections, government stability risks are highly likely to increase as a result of increasing divisions within the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jun 24. China has expelled two former defense ministers from the ruling Communist Party over accusations of corruption that are likely to lead to sentences of life in prison.
The Defense Ministry on Thursday said Li Shangfu had abused his authority to enrich himself by taking bribes in exchange for granting favors in violation of military and party discipline. Li’s predecessor, Wei Fenghe, was also accused on similar charges.
Such charges have been leveled in the past against many military leaders under the rule of President and party leader Xi Jinping, who also heads the armed forces as chairman of the Central Military Commission and has made a crackdown on corruption a hallmark of his rule since taking power more than a decade ago.
Li is being investigated for corruption and bribery, the official Xinhua news agency reported Thursday. He was removed from office in October 2023 after disappearing from public view for almost two months.
Wei was placed under investigation in September and was suspected of “seriously violating political and organizational discipline by helping others gain improper benefits in personnel arrangements,” Xinhua reported.
He was found to have accepted a “huge amount of money and valuables in return, constituting the suspected crime of taking bribes,” Xinhua said, adding that he had “lost his faith and loyalty and contaminated the political environment of the military, ”bringing enormous damage to the Party’s cause, the development of national defense and the armed forces, as well as the image of senior officials.”
Both face prosecution under the justice system run by the People’s Liberation Army, the military wing of the Communist Party.
Insiders have alleged a widespread purge of officers suspected of conspiring with outside forces or simply being insufficiently loyal to Xi. High-ranking officers occupy an elevated position in Chinese politics and can command extensive privileges.
In its statement, the ministry gave no details of the allegations against Li, other than saying that his alleged crimes were “exceptionally pernicious” and that they posed “an enormous danger.”
Li spent most of his career as a specialist in the missile and procurement branches, and was under travel and financial sanctions from the U.S. over the purchase of Russian military hardware at the time he dropped from view last September.
That roughly coincided with the sudden disappearance of then-Foreign Minister Qin Gang and several leading officers in the rocket corps amid unproven allegations of misconduct.
Li was replaced in December by Admiral Dong Jun.
China has the world’s largest standing military, its biggest navy, and a rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal, but it has not been tested in warfare in half a century. The military has a highly politicized and bureaucratic structure led by Xi as head of the party’s Central Military Commission, with the defense minister playing a subsidiary role with few contacts with counterparts from foreign nations. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/AP)
28 Jun 24. China-Taiwan: Warning against unnecessary travel to Chinese mainland reflects worsening tensions. On 27 June, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) announced that the government is raising its travel warning grade for China, Hong Kong and Macao to its second-highest level. Citizens are now advised to ‘avoid unnecessary travel’ to these locations. Cross-strait ties have become increasingly fraught since Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, leader of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), came to office in May. On 21 June, China’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS) released a notice threatening the death penalty for ‘diehard’ Taiwanese independence separatists. The MAC stated that Beijing’s new guidelines ‘severely threatened’ the safety of Taiwanese citizens. It advised travellers who ‘really have a need’ to visit China to ‘avoid getting involved in or discussing sensitive issues’. Cross-strait travel has declined in recent years, with only 1.7 m Taiwanese visits to China in 2023, a 56% drop compared to 2019. We assess that China’s efforts to undermine Taiwan’s new government will likely further reduce cross-strait exchanges and heighten tensions, though the recent notice from the MPS is likely a largely symbolic move. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Jun 24. Myanmar: Breakdown of ceasefire raises security risks in northern Shan state. On 27 June, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and allied civilian milita groups in Myanmar announced the capture of 26 military camps from military junta forces in northern Shan state and Mandalay region. This follows the breakdown of a five-month Chinese-brokered ceasefire between the junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance (BHA). The TNLA (one of the major BHA factions) restarted its offensive on 25 June after accusing the junta of continuous ceasefire violations. This resurgence in fighting led to the TNLA seizing significant territory and military assets, including eight army camps in Kyaukme township (Shan state), five camps in Mogoke township (Mandalay region) and 13 camps in Nawnghkio township (also Shan state). The junta has blocked several key roads in northern Shan state in the lead-up to the expected breakdown in the ceasefire. This has disrupted transportation and led to a sharp increase in the price of necessities. Additionally, the military’s reported restrictions on transporting essentials like rice, oil, medicine and fuel have contributed to shortages. The TNLA has indicated that it will attempt to seize control of more territory, with the townships of Kyaukme and Lashio (both Shan state) likely key targets; the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) could potentially join future offensives. Fighting will likely remain focused in northern Shan and bordering areas of Mandalay region. (Source: Sibylline)
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