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27 Jun 24. African Leaders Focus on Enhancing Regional Security. Defense leaders from dozens of African nations met this week as part of the 2024 African Chiefs of Defense Conference in Gaborone, Botswana, to address some of the challenges and opportunities on the continent, with the goal of enhancing regional security.
Marine Corps Gen. Michael Langley, commander, U.S. Africa Command, discussed the highlights from the conference with the media today, which he said was informative and productive.
Themes of the conference were sharing ideas to bolster stability, security, human rights and prosperity among the 53 nations in Africom’s area of responsibility, he said, adding that discussions included challenges in deterring threats and building for crises response.
Threats to deter include terror organizations like ISIS, Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram, which thrive in areas of instability, he said.
The solution, Langley said, is to engage with each nation, identify their needs and come to an enduring solution with a whole-of-government approach to include U.S. agencies, regional governments and civil society — not just the Defense Department.
The general also discussed the negative influence of misinformation campaigns by Russia on the continent. “Getting the truth out there to counter disinformation is essential. According to the African Center of Strategic Studies, disinformation campaigns have directly driven deadly violence, promoted and validated military coups and cowed civil society members into silence and served as a smokescreen for corruption and exploitation.”
As such, discussions included putting effective information campaigns in place to counter misinformation and disinformation campaigns, he said.
In conclusion, Langley said the conference provided a wealth of valuable information and lessons learned that can be built upon during next year’s conference. This is the first year the U.S. co-hosted the conference with an African nation. It was also the first time the conference took place in Africa. (Source: U.S. DoD)
27 Jun 24. Australian Public accounts committee raises cost, economic impact questions about Hunter frigate program. Committee chair of the joint committee of public accounts and audit, Julian Hill, has raised significant concerns about the costs and value for money assessment behind the decision to select the Hunter Class frigate design for the Navy’s future frigate.
The release of the joint committee of public accounts and audit final report into the Inquiry into the Defence Major Projects Report (MPR) 2020–21 and 2021–22 and Procurement of Hunter Class Frigates comes just a week following the government’s fanfare surrounding the first cutting of steel for the first of the Hunter Class, HMAS Hunter, in Adelaide.
The committee expressed deep concern that no value for money assessment was ever undertaken by Defence or the former government on the Hunter Class frigates’ tenders.
This comes despite the fact the National Security Committee of Cabinet decided to proceed with a (then) $35 bn procurement of a ship from BAE Systems that was not a mature design when it was selected by the government as the successful design for the Hunter Class frigates.
Committee chair Julian Hill MP launched a scathing attack on the former government, saying, “Ministers are not supposed to be rubber stamps or daleks, and there are two possibilities as to how this happened: 1) either no one noticed that no value for money assessment was undertaken or 2) they did know but didn’t care and blithely decided to proceed with a (then) $35bn procurement anyway.”
In addition to this, the committee report raised a number of other issues through the audit, including:
- The absence of any explanation why 10 per cent was mysteriously knocked off the price from all tenderers in the evaluation and advice to government.
- The Hunter Class frigate itself was assessed by Defence experts as a mature design when it had, in fact, never been built or even fully designed.
- Key documents regarding the decision-making process went and remain missing.
“Defence must reassess how it determines maturity in future large-scale acquisitions, particularly as foreign governments will always be keen to sell expensive military hardware to Australia. A balance is needed between that approach and acquiring ‘off-the-shelf’ military capability,” Hill added.
The committee made five recommendations in relation to the Hunter Class frigate program. Four of these request updates from Defence on changes arising from its internal review, progress with the project, how it will assess design maturity in the future, and its new recordkeeping framework. (Source: Defence Connect)
27 Jun 24. DOD Official Details U.S. Collaboration With Indo-Pacific Partners on Defense Industrial Base. A senior defense official underscored today the imperative for defense industrial base collaboration between the U.S. and its allies throughout the Indo-Pacific to ensure lasting peace and security in the region.
Jedidiah P. Royal, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, echoed Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in noting a “new convergence” within the Indo-Pacific that is yielding “a more capable network of partnerships” focused on solving key regional challenges.
“What you are seeing with this new convergence is a very practical, tactile implementation in the form of force posture agreements, multilateral exercises, improved interoperability and beyond,” Royal said during a panel discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
“At the very core of this is a foundation and a commitment to collaboration,” he said. “We know that collaboration is the answer. And the defense industrial base is no different.”
Royal said key to advancing the collective goal of defense industrial resilience throughout the region is tapping into the broad range of natural advantages that partners bring to the table.
His remarks follow Austin’s address at this year’s International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month where the secretary reinforced the U.S. and its partners’ commitment to strengthening defense industrial cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
“Together with our friends in the region, we’re breaking down national barriers and better integrating our defense industries,” Austin said.
“We’re also working together to fortify the shared capacity of the defense industrial bases of our allies and partners,” he said. “That’s why so many countries — including the United States — are endorsing a Statement of Principles today to strengthen the resilience of the region’s defense industrial bases.”
The joint statement outlines the signatories’ commitment to working collectively to expand industrial base capability, capacity and workforce. The partner nations also aim to increase supply chain resilience, promote defense innovation and improve information sharing, among other steps.
The statement of principles also emphasizes the collective commitment to collaborate with industry, capital providers, academia and other nongovernment partners to bolster regional defense industrial resilience.
Royal noted today that 12 signatories to the joint statement have also agreed to establish a multinational forum, the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience, to exchange lessons learned and best practices. The forum will also allow partner countries to highlight emerging opportunities to further bolster the strength of the regional industrial base.
“Our goal with these efforts is to unlock these new sources of supply as well as manufacturing and engineering talent of this pivotal region in ways that will support the United States, our allies and our partners,” Royal said.
“This will increase the purchasing power of the U.S. defense budget, provide greater assurance in critical supply chains and drive improved readiness,” he added. “And just as importantly it will further embed the new convergence already happening in the Indo-Pacific in increasingly practical ways.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
27 Jun 24. Niger: Increasing jihadist activity highlights lack of security capacity, elevated attack risks . On 26 June, the military government confirmed that unidentified militants killed at least 20 soldiers and one civilian during an attack in Tassia (Tillabéri region) on 25 June. The attack was likely conducted by the al-Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) or Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS); both groups have increased their activity in Niger since the July 2023 coup. Over the coming weeks, jihadist militants will likely continue expanding their presence in southern Niger, increasing threats to overland movement. The ongoing US troop drawdown from Air Base 201 in Agadez (Agadez region) will likely further undermine the security forces’ capacity to address expanding jihadist activity. This will almost certainly be exacerbated by the loss of US aerial capabilities. Attack risks will likely be particularly elevated in the Tillabéri region, which surrounds the capital Niamey. Elevated insecurity and militant activity in the capital’s vicinity will likely increase factionalism within the junta, driving threats to long-term government stability. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jun 24. Iran: Nationwide disruption and elevated security risks are likely during presidential election. On 28 June, Iran will hold early presidential elections following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on 19 May. An elevated security posture is likely ahead, during and following the election, elevating travel disruption risks throughout the country. Furthermore, the heightened security posture will elevate risks of arbitrary detentions, including for foreign nationals. Sporadic altercations at polling stations are also likely, along with risks of opportunistic crime near polling stations, elevating bystander risks. Businesses will likely close during polling hours, posing a risk to supply chains and impeding access to goods and services. Risks of terrorist attacks are low but will be slightly elevated during the period, particularly in rural areas where security posture is lower. While a low turnout is likely, a split vote will likely result in a second round of voting with greater turnout, exacerbating existing risks to businesses and individuals. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jun 24. Bolivia: Attempted coup will significantly increase stability risks ahead of 2025 general elections. On 26 June, the Bolivian authorities arrested General Juan José Zúñiga after he led several insurgent army units into the administrative capital La Paz. Before his apprehension, Zúñiga stated to reporters that he was attempting a ‘self-coup’ though our analysis indicates these claims are unsubstantiated. After successfully breaching the presidential palace, Zúñiga and the army units under his direction vacated the premises. Subsequently, President Luis Arce, former president Evo Morales and former interim president Jeanine Añez condemned the plot. Additionally, prominent labour groups called for a general strike on 27 June to demonstrate against the incident, raising the short-term risk of unrest and supply chain disruption nationwide. Allegations claiming Arce was involved in a ‘self-coup’ to expand his power will likely continue to circulate. As such, government stability risks will remain elevated due to continued political strife. This will be exacerbated by possible Congressional efforts to condemn, investigate or prosecute Arce’s alleged involvement. Although the immediate risk to government continuity has decreased, Arce’s government will highly likely face increasing political instability ahead of the 2025 general elections. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Jun 24. Bolivian Government Palace Attacked in Attempted Coup. On Wednesday, Bolivia’s government palace in La Paz faced an assault by armored vehicles in what appeared to be an attempted coup. The leader of the coup attempt, General Juan José Zúñiga, claimed the military sought to “restore democracy” and free political prisoners, but he was later arrested.
Hundreds of President Arce’s supporters rallied outside the palace, waving flags and chanting. In a public address, Arce thanked the Bolivian people and declared, “Let democracy live on.” Footage showed armed soldiers and military vehicles at Murillo Plaza, but they eventually withdrew following orders from the newly appointed army chief, General José Sánchez.
Tensions had been escalating for months amid economic difficulties and political rivalry between Arce and former President Evo Morales, both from the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party. Despite the attempted coup, Arce’s political adversaries condemned the rebellion, showing unity in defense of democracy.
General Zúñiga alleged that President Arce had orchestrated the incident to boost his popularity, a claim Arce denied. Zúñiga’s removal from his army chief post came just a day before the coup attempt, purportedly due to his opposition to Morales’ potential re-election bid in 2025. Morales, decrying the coup on social media, described the situation as a brewing coup d’état.
International condemnation followed swiftly, with leaders from the Organization of American States, Chile, Honduras, and the European Union expressing strong support for Bolivia’s democratic process and elected government.
As the armored vehicles retreated, order was restored, but the nation remained on edge, grappling with the political and economic instability that continues to challenge its democracy. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
27 Jun 24. Russian Aircraft Manufacturer Completes Modernization of Tu-160M Bomber Workshops. The Russian United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) announced the completion of upgrades to three key workshops for the production of Tu-160M bombers. The modernized workshops at the Kazan Aviation Plant will enhance the production of parts for the Tu-160M, which will then be assembled at the facility. The upgrades mark a significant step in Russia’s effort to modernize its fleet of strategic bombers.
The Tu-160 Blackjack bomber, originally introduced in 1987, is renowned as the world’s fastest bomber, capable of reaching speeds of Mach 2 thanks to its powerful Kuznetsov NK-32 engines. However, the aircraft has been plagued by high maintenance demands. The new Tu-160M2 aims to retain the original’s impressive speed while addressing maintenance issues.
The modernization project began in 2016, following a decision by the Russian Ministry of Defense to resume production of the Tu-160 bombers. UAC, which owns both Tupolev and the Kazan Aviation Plant, reported that the upgrades were completed in the preproduction, mechanical assembly, and flight test centers.
Despite the ambitious timeline, the project faced significant delays and legal challenges. Originally scheduled for completion by 2020, the modernization efforts were hampered by corruption charges and late completions. Approximately 10 production facilities were modernized between 2016 and 2024, with KazGAP (Kazan Aircraft Production Association) leading the design and construction efforts.
KazGAP’s work, valued at about 30 bn rubles (approximately $340 m USD), covered about three-quarters of the plant’s workshops. However, the project was marred by several dozen criminal cases against Kazan subcontractors, charged with fraud and embezzlement.
The Kazan Aviation Plant is not only responsible for the production of new Tu-160M bombers but also for upgrading existing Tu-22M3 and older Tu-160 models. Recently, the plant prepared to transfer a new batch of Tu-160M bombers to the Russian Aerospace Forces, further bolstering Russia’s strategic capabilities. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
27 Jun 24. Bolivia coup attempt fails after military assault on presidential palace. Bolivian armed forces pulled back from the presidential palace in La Paz on Wednesday evening and a general was arrested after President Luis Arce slammed a “coup” attempt against the government and called for international support.
Earlier in the day, military units led by General Juan Jose Zuniga, recently stripped of his military command, had gathered in the central Plaza Murillo square, home to the presidential palace and Congress. A Reuters witness saw an armored vehicle ram a door of the presidential palace and soldiers rush in.
“Today the country is facing an attempted coup d’état. Today the country faces once again interests so that democracy in Bolivia is cut short,” Arce said in comments from the presidential palace, with armed soldiers outside.
“The Bolivian people are summoned today. We need the Bolivian people to organize and mobilize against the coup d’état in favor of democracy.”
A few hours later, a Reuters witness saw soldiers withdraw from the square and police take control of the plaza. Bolivian authorities arrested Zuniga and took him away, though their destination was unclear.
Inside the presidential palace, Arce swore in José Wilson Sanchez as the military commander, Zuniga’s former role. He called for calm and order to be restored.
“I order that all personnel mobilized on the streets return to their units,” Sanchez said. “We entreat that the blood of our soldiers not be spilled.”
The United States said it was closely monitoring the situation and urged calm and restraint.
Tensions have been building in Bolivia ahead of general elections in 2025, with leftist ex-President Evo Morales planning to run against former ally Arce, creating a major rift in the ruling socialist party and wider political uncertainty.
Many do not want a return of Morales, who governed from 2006-2019 when he was ousted amid widespread protests and replaced by an interim conservative government. Arce then won election in 2020.
Zuniga said recently that Morales should not be able to return as president and threatened to block him if he attempted to, which led Arce to remove Zuniga from his post.
Ahead of the attack on the presidential palace, Zuniga had addressed reporters in the square and cited growing anger in the landlocked country, which has been battling an economic slump with depleted central bank reserves and pressure on the boliviano currency as gas exports have dried up.
“The three chiefs of the armed forces have come to express our dismay,” Zuniga told a local TV station, calling for a new cabinet of ministers.
“Stop destroying, stop impoverishing our country, stop humiliating our army,” he said in full uniform, flanked by soldiers, insisting the action being taken was supported by the public.
Zuniga told reporters later on Wednesday that Arce had on Sunday asked him to “raise something up” to boost his popularity, without offering evidence.
Interior Minister Eduardo del Castillo later said Zuniga was seeking to court popular support and that the nine people injured in the attempt proved “this was not a drill.”
‘STRONGEST CONDEMNATION’
Morales, head of the ruling MAS socialist party, said that his supporters would mobilize in support of democracy.
“We will not allow the armed forces to violate democracy and intimidate people,” Morales said.
Bolivia’s public prosecutor’s office said it would launch a criminal investigation against Zuniga and others involved in the attempted coup.
Public support for Arce and Bolivia’s democracy has poured in from regional leaders and beyond.
“We express the strongest condemnation of the attempted coup d’état in Bolivia. Our total support and support for President Luis Alberto Arce Catacora,” Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on X.
Even conservative political opponents of the government in Bolivia condemned the military action, including ex-President Jeanine Anez, who was imprisoned in 2022 amid political turmoil.
“I fully reject of the mobilization of the military in the Plaza Murillo attempting to destroy constitutional order,” she wrote on X. “The MAS with Arce and Evo must be got out through the vote in 2025. We Bolivians will defend democracy.” (Source: Reuters)
26 Jun 24. Ethiopia-Somalia: Elevated bilateral tensions increase risks of Ethiopian security force drawdown. On 24 June, Somalia’s ambassador to the UN accused Ethiopian troops of illegally conducting cross-border operations in the Hiraan region. The accusation comes amid heightened bilateral tensions linked to Ethiopia’s signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland in which the former recognised the latter’s independence in exchange for access to its coastline (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 12 January 2024). On 3 June, senior Somali officials stated that unless Ethiopia repeals the MoU, Somalia will expel all Ethiopian troops by 2025. Ethiopia currently contributes approximately 3,000 of the 14,000-strong African Union-backed African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and maintains a further 5,000 to 7,000 troops across Somalia under a separate bilateral agreement. Such a withdrawal would significantly undermine efforts to contain the militant al-Shabaab group’s activity in Somalia and elevate risks of cross-border attacks in Ethiopia’s Somali region. The troops’ reported border incursion will likely further strain bilateral relations and undermine diplomatic efforts to ease tensions, increasing the likelihood of an Ethiopian troop withdrawal in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Jun 24. US to keep an eye on North Korean troops joining Russian Army. The Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang recently where he signed a strategic partnership treaty confirming reciprocal military guarantees.
Given Russia’s huge losses in Ukraine, the US Department of Defense press secretary, Major General Pat Ryder, questioned North Korea’s decision to bolster the invader’s ranks in Ukraine.
When confronted by the prospect of a North Korean Army engineering unit being deployed to the Russian-occupied Donetsk region as early as next month – a move alluded to by South Korean media – Ryder commented:
“I think that if I were North Korean military personnel management, I would be questioning my choices on sending my forces to be cannon fodder in an illegal war against Ukraine.
“We’ve seen the kinds of casualties that Russian forces [are facing] but again, [this is] something that we’ll keep an eye on.”
Russian casualties in Ukraine
As Russia continues to make incremental gains west of Avdiivka and opened up a new northern offensive in the Kharkiv Oblast, an average daily casualty rate has pushed the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in action beyond 500,000.
Despite these losses, it is understood that Russia still retains the ability to recruit approximately 30,000 new personnel each month, making its losses, even those experienced in May, sustainable.
Should North Korea replenish Russian Army ranks with their own soldiers it would not be the first time that foreigners have fought in Russia’s Armed Forces against Ukraine.
Many foreign conscripts are economic migrants, most of whom come from Central Asia (primarily from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan), the Centre for Eastern Studies found. Others include citizens of Cuba, Nepal, Syria, Serbia, Afghanistan, Somalia and Malaysia. Their total number is probably in the thousands, although it is problematic to claim any specific figures.
A new level to their strategic partnership
Facing isolation on the world stage, the Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang recently where he signed a strategic partnership treaty confirming reciprocal military guarantees with the totalitarian leader, Kim Jong Un, in the event that either of their territories are invaded.
After the visit the Kremlin publicised Putin’s thanks to North Korea in which he stated that the visit “has elevated relations between Moscow and Pyongyang to an unprecedentedly high level.”
This partnership builds on the stocks of weapons and military equipment that the former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu secured from North Korea during his visit to the newfound ally this time last year.
Only a month ago [May 2024], an unclassified report from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) confirmed that Russia had used ballistic missiles manufactured in North Korea in its war in Ukraine.
Through careful analysis of open-source imagery, intelligence analysts verified the debris found in Kharkiv on 2 January 2024 as missile debris from a North Korean short-range missile. (Source: army-technology.com)
26 Jun 24. Kenya getting 16 helicopters, other military support from US after historic meeting. The United States has revealed plans to transfer eight UH-1 ‘Huey’ and eight MD500 helicopters to Kenya along with 150 armoured vehicles to improve regional security following a historic visit by Kenyan President William Ruto to the United States.
At the end of May, President Joe Biden welcomed Ruto to the White House to strengthen ties between the two countries and mark 60 years of official US-Kenya partnership. The meeting covered democracy, human rights, healthcare, climate solutions, trade and investment as well as peace and security cooperation.
In terms of defence cooperation, the White House said Kenya is scheduled to receive eight Hueys and eight MD500s between late 2024 and mid-2025 to bolster its ability to provide regional peace and security and participate in peacekeeping missions.
On the landward side, Kenya selected approximately 150 M1117 4×4 Armoured Security Vehicles from US Excess Defence Article stocks, which are projected to arrive in Kenya September 2024.
Moreover, the White House announced plans to upgrade Manda Bay airfield in northern Kenya, with US and Kenyan officials set to sign a memorandum of understanding for the construction of a 10 000 foot runway, as the base currently lacks adequate infrastructure. Kenya is also in the process of joining Operation ‘Gallant Phoenix’, a US-led multinational initiative based in Jordan aimed at sharing information on terrorist threats, further strengthening counter-terrorism cooperation between the two countries.
Biden also informed Congress he intends to designate Kenya as a Major Non-NATO Ally. “This designation is granted by the United States to countries with close and strategic working relationships with the US military and defence civilians. The United States has a deep respect for Kenya’s contributions to global peace and security. This is the first designation of a sub-Saharan Africa nation as a Major Non-NATO Ally,” the White House said.
The USA has provided to Kenya over $230m in civilian security and defence sector funding since 2020, including assistance from the Massachusetts National Guard under the State Partnership Programme, alongside ongoing advisory and training efforts for Kenyan pilots, logistics personnel, and the Kenya Defence Forces’ Disaster Response Battalion.
Ruto’s state visit to the US on 20 May coincided with the deployment of an advanced party of Kenyan police to Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, with approximately 200 personnel scheduled for deployment by 31 May as part of a Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM) aimed at aiding Haitian security forces against pervasive gang activity. Like Haiti, the African country is no stranger to internal struggle, as it faces difficulties in securing its northern regions from Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen militants operating from Somalia. Terrorists frequently attack security forces and civilians along the border with Somalia.
Since Kenya gained independence from the United Kingdom in December 1963, the United States has maintained diplomatic relations. When Barack Obama was elected at the end of 2008, people in Nairobi were celebrating the arrival in power of an “American Luo President”, an allusion to the Kenyan origins of his paternal family. However, bilateral relations were not easy with Obama himself describing the country as “riddled with corruption” in 2006. After that President Kenyatta’s indictment by the ICC for crimes against humanity also froze the relationship. Eventually, in 2015, the US President did make a hi-profile visit, paving the way to better cooperation
In addition to the MD500s and UH-1s from the United States, Kenya is due to receive 16 ex Republic of Korea Army MD500MD Defender helicopters, which were pledged by South Korea in 2021, during the UN peacekeeping forum in Seoul. The aircraft will be used to equip a new unit being formed to support United Nations peacekeeping missions.
In December 2023, the first six of the 16 donated MD500s were shipped from the Korean Army Logistics Command’s general maintenance depot in Jinhae to the US for repairs and maintenance before delivery to Kenya under US State Department auspices.
Korean Air’s aerospace division built some 280 MD500s under license between 1976 and 1984, and these are now being replaced in Korean service by the indigenous LUH-1 Surion.
Kenya’s military already operates the MD500, with 40 delivered by the United States between 1980 and 1985, along with 2 100 TOW anti-tank missiles. These were recently augmented by six new MD530Fs delivered from the US in December 2019. They were acquired to assist with operations in support of the AMISOM mission in Somalia.
Kenya is also a UH-1 operator, having acquired eight Huey IIs from the United States in 2016/17. In September 2017 the US Department of Defence announced that it had awarded Bell Helicopter a foreign military sales contract worth $52.1m for the supply of an initial five Huey II helicopters and spares for Kenya. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
26 Jun 24. China mobilises troops in Hong Kong for joint exercises. China mobilised troops in Hong Kong in a joint exercise with infantry, helicopters and maritime vessels.
China’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 25 June 2024, that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) mobilised troops from its Army, Navy and Air Force for a joint patrol in Hong Kong, training for operations including ‘special situation handling’.
The mobilisation of troops in Hong Kong included infantry and materiel, including helicopters and maritime vessels, “carried out under real combat conditions’ according to the MoD release: “The training accentuated swift preparation and command, barracks defense and emergency rescue, which improved the troops’ capability of handling emergencies and fulfilling diverse military missions.”
The recent exercise in Hong Kong is one of a number China has performed in the territory since Spring 2023 to have garnered criticism as an overt demonstration of force intended to quell public expression of dissatisfaction and organised protest or demonstrations.
Beijing, mindful of the difficulties in maintaining a civil peace across a population in excess of one bn people, responded to the Arab Spring and the colour revolutions of the last two decades with an enhanced system of repressive controls.
A campaign of activism for greater civil freedom in Hong Kong has shaken the semi-autonomous territory over recent years, and sparked a repressive response. China has warded off international calls for a restoration of democratic freedoms. These freedoms were originally secured up until a date 50-years after return of the former British-colony to Chinese rule, in 1997, under the “one country, two systems” principle.
An International Institute of Strategic Studies report published in May 2024 looked at 130 exercises conducted but the PLA between 2003 and 2022, found China has significantly increased its tempo of joint military drills across Asia in recent years, but that the complexity and size of these exercises lags behind the volume and sophistication of the 1,130 exercises the US has engaged in within the same period. (Source: naval-technology.com)
25 Jun 24. AMD calls on new defence minister to renew investment in South Africa’s defence capabilities. In an open letter to a new Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, the South African Aerospace Maritime, and Defence Industries Association (AMD) calls on Thandi Modise’s successor to renew investment in the country’s national defence capabilities.
“As the country enters an era of a Government of National Unity, we are hopeful that this transition will come with a renewed commitment to the prioritisation of the safety and security of our people,” wrote AMD CEO Sandile Ndlovu.
“As you take up this role, you will be faced with an urgent and crucial task: revamping our national defence capabilities to effectively address both our internal and external safety and security challenges.”
Ndlovu pointed out that at the first AMD National Security and Safety Townhall in Sandton in May, all political parties involved agreed that the nation’s security is paramount, with concerns about resource allocation, the need for a robust defence industry, and human security challenges such as inequality, poverty, and unemployment – factors that underpin political stability and national security.
“As representatives of the defence and security industry, we believe it is imperative to highlight what we believe should be priority,” Ndlovu wrote, and this includes:
- Enhancing the capabilities of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), which is beset by challenges, including but not limited to, inadequate funding and training, outdated equipment, and severe operational limitations.
“These issues have compromised our ability to protect South Africa’s territorial integrity and support state security services. We believe that the priority should be to revamp SANDF’s capabilities to ensure that it has the personnel, technology, and infrastructure required to fulfil its mandate, namely the protection of our people, borders, environment, and infrastructure.”
- Partnering with the private sector for financing to allow innovation, efficiency, and sustainable development of military capabilities: “There are two imperatives from a funding point of view that should be undertaken. The first is increasing defence budget allocations to at least 1% of the GDP to counteract the negative impacts of previous budget cuts and to combat the inflationary impact.
“Defence analysts agree that the SANDF is so severely underfunded and defence spending is now about 0.7% of GDP, versus the international norm of 2% of GDP. As a result, the SANDF simply cannot meet the commitments required of it in terms of its mandate and defence policy.
“We are aware of the country’s strained budgets, and we have therefore proposed a private-public funding model. This model aligns with the global trend of engaging the private sector in defence funding, allowing for innovation, efficiency, and sustainable military capabilities. It offers a pragmatic and immediate solution to our fiscal constraints; it provides for a payment plan that allows private companies to assume the financial responsibility for developing and delivering military systems and government paying for these systems over an extended period.”
Thirdly, AMD wants to see the revitalisation of the defence and security industry by buying local. “Approximately 95% of the armaments and equipment produced locally by our sector are shipped to global markets, contributing significantly to their ability to protect and defend their countries against internal and external threats. That global success does not translate locally.
“For an industry to flourish a market must exist and that is simply not the case for the defence and security industry in South Africa currently. A robust local manufacturing capability will bolster our overall defence capabilities, provide opportunities for job creation, skills development and advancement of our technological abilities.
“In addition, increased spending will mean new equipment, better training for our soldiers and the attraction of new talent, especially our youth. The defence sector offers employment opportunities including doctors, engineers, lawyers, which would help in addressing the high unemployment rate especially in this group.
“South Africa’s national interest is a delicate balance of competing priorities. We do believe that an investment in the sector can play a role in contributing to the relief of our country’s human security challenges. Our industry has the potential to contribute 3.5% to our GDP, which would make a meaningful contribution toward addressing our socio-economic challenges.”
Ndlovu emphasised that the success of South Africa’s national defence capabilities hinges on the political will of its leaders, and urged the new administration to demonstrate to the people of South Africa its commitment to addressing the complex and interconnected issues of defence, development, and human security.
“Only through decisive and inclusive action can South Africa ensure a secure and prosperous future for its citizens. The time for rhetoric has passed; now is the moment for bold and effective leadership in national defence.
“On behalf of AMD and its members, we stand ready to assist and support you in seeking bold and innovative solutions to secure our nation’s defence capabilities and safeguard the sovereignty our country,” Ndlovu concluded.
(Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
25 Jun 24. Haiti: MSS deployment will likely increase short-to-medium-term security, human rights risks. On 24 June, the US State Department announced the deployment of the first contingent of Kenyan police officers from the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS) by 30 June. The MMS will deploy approximately 400 officers in the first contingent, with another group of around 600 officers expected to arrive in the coming weeks. The deployment comes amid continued gang violence. Gangs reportedly control at least 80% of the capital Port-au-Prince. In the short-to-medium term, the MSS deployment will likely inflame risks of further violence and attacks in and around Port-au-Prince, elevating bystander safety risks. While the MSS deployment will possibly improve access to humanitarian aid, there is a realistic possibility that human rights risks will increase. Amnesty International has expressed concern over potential sexual exploitation and abuse risks, given that previous MSS deployments failed to establish human rights safeguards. In the long term, we assess that the transitional government will continue to exercise a weak political mandate. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Jun 24. Russia: Simultaneous terror attacks in North Caucasus highly likely reflect growing Islamist capability. On 23 June, numerous unknown perpetrators conducted two co-ordinated gun and knife attacks on Orthodox churches and synagogues in two cities in the Muslim-majority Republic of Dagestan in the North Caucasus. The attacks took place at around 1800hrs (local time) in the regional capital, Makhachkala, and Derbent, located 75 miles (120km) to the south. While casualty figures remain unconfirmed, reports indicate that the shooters killed at least 15 police officers and four civilians, while the synagogue in Makhachkala was burned down. In response, security forces killed four perpetrators in Makhachkala and two in Derbent. Russian authorities have described the attackers as ‘supporters of an international terrorist organisation’, without further specification. Islamic State (IS) are the most likely group involved, given the group’s regional presence and links to the Moscow oblast Crocus Hall terror attack in March. Russian authorities have also alluded to alleged Ukrainian involvement. Islamist terrorism remains a high-risk threat in the North Caucasus, but the latest simultaneous and highly co-ordinated attacks in major cities highly likely illustrate growing capabilities to conduct mass-casualty attacks inside Russia. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Jun 24. Mali: Arrests of opposition leaders will moderately elevate risks of unrest in short-term. On 21 June, an alliance of opposition parties and civil society groups demanded the release of 11 senior figures who were arrested during a meeting on 20 June. In April, the military junta banned political parties and civil society organisations. The opposition has appealed the ban to the Supreme Court, though the junta’s retention of influence over state institutions will almost certainly render this unsuccessful. As such, the junta is highly likely to continue cracking down on opposition activity, particularly following the National Dialogue’s recommendation to extend its mandate until 2027 (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 23 May 2024). In response, there is a realistic possibility that the opposition will organise protests in the capital Bamako. The security forces’ use of excessive force to disperse protests will drive bystander risks. However, repressive measures will likely mitigate risks of particularly disruptive or prolonged opposition unrest, reducing threats to government stability. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Jun 24. Pakistan: Nationwide counter-terrorism operation elevates risk of retaliatory attacks in short term. On 22 June, the government decided to launch a nationwide counter-terrorism operation named ‘Azm-e-Istehkam’. The campaign will intensify efforts to ‘curtail the operational space for terrorists through regional co-operation’ and introduce legislation to address legal gaps that prevent the prosecution of terrorism-related cases. In recent months, Pakistan has experienced an increase in attacks, particularly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. The statement also comes amid concerns of attacks targeting Chinese citizens and investments in Pakistan, impacting Chinese investor confidence. As the operation commences over the coming weeks, there is a realistic possibility of retaliatory attacks by militant groups against the military as well as affiliated establishments, including schools and hospitals. Additionally, the military operation will likely increase safety risks for locals, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, significantly heightening the risk of mass displacement. There is also a realistic possibility of protests in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the coming days. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Jun 24. Jordan: Explosives found in residential area reflect elevated security risks in Amman. On 22 June, Jordanian authorities discovered and detonated explosives stored inside a flat in the residential Marka neighbourhood, northeast of the capital Amman. While authorities have not published additional details, the proximity of the explosives’ location to the military section of Amman Civil Airport (ADJ) suggests it was likely terror-related, as the US Army often uses this facility in its regional operations. As security risks remain elevated in the capital, there is a realistic possibility that security agencies will conduct stop-and-search operations in the neighbourhood’s adjacent areas over the coming two to three weeks. There is also a realistic possibility of additional checkpoints in the Marka area and on highways connecting Amman Civil Airport to the capital, moderately elevating risks of mobility disruption. Furthermore, authorities will likely adopt an augmented security posture throughout this week in large public spaces in Amman, although this is unlikely to cause significant traffic disruption in downtown areas. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Jun 24. US-Japan-South Korea: Trilateral military co-operation will likely expand following Putin’s visit to North Korea. On 23 June, the US, Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement to ‘condemn in the strongest possible terms’ deepening co-operation between North Korea and Russia. On 19 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea’s capital Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong-un, where the two leaders signed a mutual defence pact. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un described their relationship as an alliance, triggering concerns among the US and its allies about potential Russian support for Pyongyang’s missile or nuclear programmes. Washington has long had close relations with Tokyo and Seoul, but historical issues between Japan and South Korea have previously hampered trilateral co-operation. In 2023, the three countries met in Camp David (US) and agreed to put aside historical issues and work closer together in light of heightening regional tensions. On 23 June, they pledged to ‘further strengthen diplomatic and security co-operation’. On 22 June, a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier arrived in Busan (South Korea) ahead of the ‘Freedom Edge’ joint trilateral exercises due to start in the coming week as a sign of co-operation. Such joint exercises will sustain tensions and the risk of provocative actions from North Korea, though we do not assess that North Korea is currently seeking to initiate full armed conflict despite recent developments. (Source: Sibylline)
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