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06 Jun 24. Joint Statement on the Inaugural Meeting of the Joint Angolan-American Defense Cooperation Committee. Within the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Angola and the Department of Defense of the United States of America on Defense Cooperation, signed on 17 May 2017, the Inaugural Meeting of the Joint Angolan-American Defense Cooperation Committee was held at the Pentagon, Washington DC, United States of America, from 05 to 06 June 2024.
The delegations were led by Their Excellencies Tressa Guenov, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, as Chair of the Committee, and General Ret Afonso Carlos Neto, Secretary of State for Military Industry, as Co-Chair.
The Committee meeting affirmed the commitment of both countries to strengthen defense cooperation, based on recent high-level meetings between the United States Department of Defense and the Ministry of National Defense, Former Combatants and Veterans of Homeland of the Republic of Angola
The delegations discussed a range of topics, with emphasis on regional security, security cooperation, peace operations, cyber security, maritime security and capacity building.
The heads of delegations signed the Cooperation Agreement on Acquisition and Cross Services, an instrument that will allow for closer logistical cooperation between their Armed Forces.
The parties intend to pursue a closer security relationship and will continue to examine and work to implement cooperation in the areas discussed during the next meeting of the Joint Angolan-American Defense Cooperation Committee to be held in Luanda, in 2025. (Source: U.S. DoD)
06 Jun 24. Burkina Faso: Increasing military ties with Russia will drive human rights, sanctions risks. On 5 June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Moscow would send additional military supplies and instructors to Burkina Faso to support its defence capabilities. The military junta in Burkina Faso has continued to augment its security ties with Moscow since January when a 100-strong Russian contingent landed in Burkina Faso. The Junta’s anxiety over increasing unrest risks is mounting, particularly following its recent decision to extend its tenure by 60 months (5 years). This will likely increase the junta’s dependence on Russian private military companies (PMCs), such as the Africa Corps, to address threats. Co-operation between the security forces and the Africa Corps will almost certainly intensify human rights risks, prompting the junta to stifle media outlets and NGOs to reduce risks of international and domestic backlash over repression and rights violations. Additionally, an increasing Russian presence will significantly elevate exposure to sanctions for businesses operating in local strategic sectors. (Source: Sibylline)
05 Jun 24. The US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand have jointly warned that China’s People’s Liberation Army is “aggressively recruiting” western fighter pilots in an effort to train its own military aviators. The US National Counterintelligence and Security Center and its Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network partners issued the warning amid concerns that China is continuing to recruit current and former pilots from the US and Nato countries despite efforts to block the practice. “To overcome their shortcomings, China’s PLA has been aggressively recruiting western military talent to train their aviators, using private firms around the globe that conceal their PLA ties and offer recruits exorbitant salaries,” said Michael Casey, NCSC director. The concerns about western pilots training their PLA peers has intensified since revelations in 2022 that the Test Flying Academy of South Africa, a private school, had used more than two dozen retired British air force, navy and army pilots to help train Chinese military pilots. Casey said the western partners had achieved some success recently in preventing recruitment, but that PLA efforts continued to “evolve in response”. He said the warning bulletin aimed to highlight the persistent threat and deter western pilots from helping China. “For some former military pilots, the opportunity to fly exotic fighter jets again can be a draw, and even more so when accompanied by a fat salary,” said one US official. The Five Eyes bulletin said recruiters for the PLA used “nefarious recruitment” methods that hid the involvement of China’s military. The recruiters were also targeting flight engineers, air operations centre staff and experts with insight into military tactics. As part of the training, the PLA was trying to gain knowledge about state-of-the-art western aircraft and tactics that might be used in, for example, a conflict over Taiwan. The bulletin said the recruiters offered lucrative pay for work in China, South Africa and elsewhere. It said they approached targets in many ways, including via headhunters and professional networking sites. But one US official said some former western fighter jet pilots had used reunions to urge their peers to get involved. Since the discovery of TFASA’s role, Washington and its partners have taken several actions to make it harder for the Chinese military to recruit western pilots, which has been occurring since as early as 2012. The US commerce department has imposed sanctions on groups in China, Kenya, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, the UK and the United Arab Emirates, for allegedly engaging in recruitment efforts. Recommended Elbridge Colby America must face reality and prioritise China over Europe The bulletin said the Chinese military had responded to those efforts by incorporating entities under different names and in new locations. In June 2023, the US commerce department imposed restrictions on TFASA. The South African group has accused the US of conducting an “unfair harassment” campaign that it says started in 2013 after it refused to provide information on its clients to the US government. The UK has also updated its National Security Act to make it possible to prosecute former pilots for sharing certain military information. (Source: FT.com)
05 Jun 24. India: Election Update. On 4 June, the Election Commission of India (ECI) began counting votes in the Lok Sabha (lower house) election. According to the final results, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single largest party. Despite winning fewer seats than expected, the BJP, along with its coalition partners, will highly likely form a government for a third consecutive term.
SIGNIFICANCE
• There are 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. The BJP performed significantly worse than expected and secured 240 seats, short of the 272 needed for an outright majority in the parliament. However, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) managed to win a total of 293 seats, paving the way for the NDA alliance to form a government. The Indian National Congress (INC)-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) secured 232 seats (with the INC winning 99 seats). Prime Minister Modi has declared victory, with key NDA partners indicating that they will stick with their pre-poll alliances. However, INDIA has not conceded and is preparing to meet coalition partners to decide its next steps.
• The BJP performed worse than its outing in the previous election cycle in 2019, when it won 303 seats independently. It also failed to meet the target of 400 seats for its alliance. The INC outperformed expectations and secured 99 seats (compared to 52 in 2019). While the BJP has made inroads in the south, winning a seat in Kerala state for the first time, it performed relatively poorly in the Hindi heartland, losing seats to the opposition in Uttar Pradesh state, its stronghold.
• On 4 June, stocks of major Indian companies fell as prospects of a landslide BJP victory receded. The Nifty Index (NSEI) dropped 5.43% while the BSE Index (BSESN) fell by 5.4%, underscoring an increasing degree of uncertainty. Shares of companies owned by the Modi-allied businessman Gautam Adani also fell, with Adani Enterprises dropping by 2.88%. The exit polls had earlier predicted a landslide victory for the NDA, which pushed markets to all-time highs on 3 June. Markets rebounded (to an extent) after it became clear that Modi would still likely form a government.
• Overall, the counting of votes concluded peacefully; there were no major instances of political violence or allegations of rigging monitored.
FORECAST
Fewer-than-expected seats and a weakened mandate will increase the BJP’s dependence on coalition partners, raising government stability risks. The BJP will rely on coalition partners in the NDA to secure a majority of 272 in the parliament and to form a government. Given the increased leverage for smaller parties, there will be an elevated risk of infighting between coalition members, limiting the BJP’s ability to alter the constitution and implement some of its more contentious policies, such as the Uniform Civil Code (UCC). While Modi is likely to continue to focus on his economic agenda, an increased dependence on smaller parties and pressure to address demands based on regional mandates will somewhat limit his ability to make ambitious and bold economic reforms, particularly with regard to land and labour. This will likely impact the prospects for India’s investment climate and ambitions to attract more manufacturing investment (see Sibylline Special Report – 12 April 2024).
There is also a realistic possibility that the weaker mandate will partly curtail the BJP’s Hindu nationalist vision for the country, pushing the party to focus on economic issues such as unemployment and rural economic distress. However, such a shift would likely only be marginal.
We assess that there is a realistic possibility of protests in the coming days despite limited domestic unrest so far. While no major protests have occurred following the release of the results, there is a realistic possibility of small-scale protests once the government and its coalition members are announced, particularly if they defy expected coalition set-ups. Security has been augmented outside the offices and residences of members of political parties, particularly those likely to play the role of kingmakers, including the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh state. The risk of protests will remain elevated in the coming days, particularly if the TDP decides to join the opposition coalition against expectations (though this is currently unlikely). Protests initially planned by the opposition INDIA following the results are now unlikely, given its better-than-expected performance in the election. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Jun 24. Austin Discusses Range of Important Issues With Cambodian Leaders. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today traveled to Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where he met with Prime Minister Hun Manet; Defense Minister Tea Seiha; and Hun Sen, president of the senate.
In their meetings, the officials discussed opportunities to strengthen the U.S.-Cambodia defense relationship in support of regional peace and security, including through the resumption of military training exchanges on disaster assistance and United Nations peacekeeping, training and exchanges on unexploded ordnance clearance, and Cambodia’s access to U.S. professional military education programs, said Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, who is traveling with the secretary.
They also welcomed continued discussions about these issues between their respective defense establishments, and Austin engaged with Cambodian alumni of U.S. professional military education programs, as well as cadets from the U.S. Military Academy and the U.S. Air Force Academy visiting Cambodia for educational opportunities, Ryder said.
“The secretary often talks about the importance of meeting face-to-face, especially in this part of the world. That was true again today as he engaged Cambodia’s new leadership. And these were candid, concrete discussions,” said a senior defense official traveling with the secretary.
“This kind of engagement matters for the future. Cambodia is a young country in a young region. Our defense relationship has a lot of potential and room for growth. That’s why it’s so important to stay engaged here,” the official said.
“We’re encouraged about the possibility of resuming our military training and exchanges, including on humanitarian assistance, de-mining and unexploded ordnance clearance, and U.N. peacekeeping. There’s a lot our two countries can do together,” the official said.
Austin’s second trip to Cambodia follows his November 2022 trip here for the 9th ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Siem Reap, Cambodia.
(Source: U.S. DoD)
04 Jun 24. Ethiopia-Somalia: Possible troop withdrawal will elevate threat of cross-border attacks into Ethiopia. On 3 June, a senior Somali official stated that, unless Ethiopia repeals the agreement to recognise Somaliland’s sovereignty in exchange for Red Sea access by the end of June, Somalia will expel Ethiopian troops by 2025. Currently, Ethiopia contributes around 3,000 of the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia’s (ATMIS) 14,000 troops and maintains a further 5,000-7,000 in several regions across Somalia under a bilateral agreement. Given the size of Ethiopia’s troop deployment, withdrawal would significantly undermine efforts to contain militant Sunni group al-Shabaab’s freedom of movement within Somalia and further stretch Somali security resources, reducing government presence in rural areas. The withdrawal would also undermine Ethiopian efforts to proactively prevent al-Shabaab expansion into Ethiopia, raising the threat of cross-border attacks into Ethiopia’s Somali region. There is a realistic possibility Ethiopia will attempt to compromise with Somalia, mitigating this threat. However, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s unwillingness to suffer a public retraction will undermine such prospects. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Jun 24. US intensifies sanctions on suppliers in Iran’s UAV network.
The targeted sanctions aim to disrupt Iran’s UAV supply chain and curb regional threats.
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has announced a sweeping new round of sanctions aimed at crippling Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) production capabilities.
This latest action targets four entities associated with the already-designated Rayan Roshd Afzar Company (RRA) and an executive of the Iran Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO), a subsidiary of Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL).
These measures are part of a broader strategy to thwart Iran’s supply of UAVs to Russia for use in Ukraine and to regional terrorist proxies.
Impact on Iran’s UAV supply to Russia and proxies
Iran is currently supplying Russia with weapons, including loitering munitions, which are being used in Ukraine, as per GlobalData’s intelligence on the US defence market. Russia has widely employed the Iranian-designed Shahed loitering munition, which costs $20,000 per unit, to target Ukrainian civil infrastructure.
Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian E. Nelson, emphasised that these sanctions are designed to disrupt Iran’s production, “Today’s action reinforces our commitment to disrupt Iran’s production and proliferation of deadly UAVs that continue to be used by Russia against Ukraine and by regional terrorist proxies against our troops”.
Nelson reaffirmed the Treasury’s commitment to imposing costs on those facilitating Iran’s UAV programmes, “Treasury will continue to impose costs on those who seek to procure the components Iran needs for its UAV programs and enable the shipment of these weapons to destabilising actors around the world.”
Background and previous sanctions
The sanctions fall under Executive Order 13382, targeting weapons of mass destruction proliferators and their delivery mechanisms. This move builds on several previous actions by OFAC in 2024, which focused on third-country procurement networks and key executives supporting Iran’s UAV and missile production.
The United States has previously imposed sanctions on networks spanning Iran, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Indonesia, aiming to disrupt Iran’s UAV production. The US Treasury has also sanctioned a prominent procurement network facilitating Iran’s ballistic missile and UAV programmes, with entities in Iran and Hong Kong involved.
RRA, along with its affiliates, has been under US scrutiny since 2017 for its role in producing components for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ UAV programme. The newly sanctioned entities include Rayan Fan Kav Andish Co, Kish Mechatronics Co, Fanavarihaye Hava Pishran Sazeh Sepehr Co LLC, and Mersad Mohajer Co LLC, all implicated in evading sanctions and procuring critical parts for Iran’s defence industries.
Furthermore, the Treasury has designated Afshin Khajeh Fard, chief of IAIO, highlighting his role in advancing Iran’s UAV and missile production. IAIO oversees manufacturers such as Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company (HESA) and Qods Aviation Industries, which produce various UAV models used in regional conflicts.
As a result of these sanctions, all US-based assets of the designated entities and individuals are frozen, and US persons are prohibited from engaging in transactions with them. The action aims to isolate these entities from the global financial system and impede their operations.
OFAC’s sanctions, while punitive, also offer a path to compliance, emphasising the potential for removal from the sanctions list if behaviour changes positively. This dual approach shows the US strategy of using economic pressure to drive change while maintaining the integrity of international law.
In February of 2024, A US Coast Guard cutter deployed to CENTCOM seized a shipment of Iranian weapons intended for Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen on January 28, 2024. The intercepted weapons included medium-range ballistic missile components, explosives, unmanned underwater/surface vehicle components, military-grade communication equipment, and anti-tank missile launcher assemblies. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
03 Jun 24. Korean Peninsula: Plans by Seoul to suspend military agreement point to elevated tensions. On 3 June, South Korea’s National Security Council (NSC) proposed fully suspending a military agreement with North Korea. The plans are subject to approval by the cabinet at a meeting on 4 June. In 2018, both sides signed the ‘September 19 Agreement’ to diffuse tensions following a meeting between North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un and South Korea’s then-president Moon Jae-in. An NSC press release stated that Pyongyang had already unilaterally withdrawn from the agreement and claimed that ‘North Korea’s recent series of provocations have caused real damage and threats’. Over the past week, North Korea launched several hundred balloons filled with rubbish and manure into South Korea. On 2 June, Pyongyang promised to suspend this ‘pure countermeasure’ as long as South Korea does not resume distributing ‘anti-DPRK leaflets’. The NSC statement added that suspending the agreement would allow South Korea’s military to conduct ‘drills along the military demarcation line’ and ‘take more adequate and immediate measures’ against provocations. We assess that the latest developments underscore worsening inter-Korean relations and a further escalation in regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Jun 24. Kuwait: Appointment of new crown prince will sustain political uncertainty. On 1 June, Emir Mishal al-Jaber al-Sabah named Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah as Crown Prince. Sabah served as prime minister from 2019 to 2022 before he resigned due to standoffs with the parliament at the time. The decision maintains the traditional line of succession, mitigating the risks facing the stability of the monarchy. However, political uncertainty and policy risks will highly likely persist in the coming months, as the parliament remains dissolved. This lack of an electoral timeline will stoke persistent tensions between the political elite and the monarchy, moderately elevating domestic unrest risks. However, associated action is likely to be characterised mainly by sit-ins rather than violence. With the parliament dissolved, the government will likely now be able to implement structural reforms without notable restraint. We assess that these are particularly likely for regulations relating to economic diversification and expanding non-oil sectors in the long term, elevating socio-economic prospects in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Jun 24. Chinese defense head warns of ‘self-destruction’ for Taiwan supporters. After meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for the first time, China’s new defense minister paused in an outdoor hallway to wipe the fog off his glasses.
Standing near the press, Adm. Dong Jun smiled. And to a member of the American delegation, he described the best place in China, in his opinion, to go see pandas. It was diplomacy in action.
Two days later, Dong had a different tone.
He gave a stern, at times strident, speech on the last day of the Shangri-La Dialogue, a defense summit in Singapore that draws officials from across the region. Dong warned that those who support independence for Taiwan — a rogue province in the eyes of China’s leaders — will face “self-destruction.”
At another point, he said that the odds of “peaceful reunification” with the island nation are “eroding.”
These two points in time were representative of China’s goals for the summit — and by extension the reputation it may be seeking in the region. It appears China came to reassure other countries it is acting responsibly; after all, it did resume top military talks with the U.S..
But at the same time, it sent a message of enforcement — specifically regarding its interests in Taiwan and the South China Sea. After facing criticism from regional neighbors during the summit, Dong’s speech showed China’s hardened position on sensitive topics.
“That was the most consistently intimidating speech we’ve heard from China at a Shangri-La Dialogue,” Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at Australian National University, wrote on X.
‘Greater scrutiny’
A U.S. official agreed with the post, calling the speech “tone deaf.”
“Countries across the region and around the world continue to have serious concerns about coercive [Chinese] activities in the East and South China seas, in the Taiwan Strait, and beyond,” the official said on the condition of anonymity, due to the sensitivity of the topic.
The reference was to China’s military activities around the Second Thomas Shoal, a reef in the South China Sea on which the Philippines has an outpost. China and the Philippines are among several nations asserting sovereignty over local geographic features.
Chinese Coast Guard vessels have spent months harassing Philippine vessels during resupply missions — at times firing water cannons and disabling ships.
Two days before Dong spoke, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. warned he would consider the death of any Filipino due to such behavior an act of war. That decision could pull the U.S., which has a mutual defense treaty with Manila, into a conflict.
But Marcos wasn’t the only speaker with harsh words for China at the conference. Austin repeated Pentagon talking points that conflict isn’t “imminent or unavoidable.”
And Australia’s defense minister, Richard Marles, said: “As China steps up to a larger role, it must accept, like all great powers, that there will be much greater scrutiny on the way it uses its strength.”
Two years ago, after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., visited Taiwan, China ended military talks with the U.S. The break worried some attending last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, when China’s defense minister at the time had declined an offer to meet with American defense officials.
Those talks restarted after a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in November, and Dong spoke at length about the value of communication during his remarks.
“The Chinese military never acts from the position of strength in his relations with foreign militaries,” Dong said. “At the same time, others should not expect to impose their will on us.”
Words and actions
But as one audience member pointed out to Dong during a Q&A session, those signals often don’t match China’s actions.
The week before the conference, China launched a series of military drills around Taiwan, responding to a speech from the island nation’s new president, who some in Beijing view as a pro-independence official. China labeled these exercises a “punishment.”
In his speech, Dong cited “external interfering forces,” a euphemism for the U.S. and other allied countries, for tension in the South China Sea and Taiwan.
After his speech, the minister wouldn’t address questions about China’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war nor the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. He did, however, speak for more than 10 minutes straight about those he claimed are seeking Taiwanese independence “incrementally.”
“They keep testing China’s red lines,” he said, referencing arms sales and “official engagements,” likely a reference to the members of Congress who recently visited the island.
When the moderator at the conference took several critical questions from the crowd, Dong tried a quick joke.
“I can feel the charm of the Shangri-La Dialogue,” he said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)
03 Jun 24. Austin: Boosting Military-Industrial Bases With Indo-Pacific Nations a Priority. In order to have sufficient capacity in the Indo-Pacific nations’ military-industrial bases, the Defense Department, along with allies and partners, are going to have to work together to make this happen, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said.
Austin spoke today at a news briefing in Singapore at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
Over the last several years, countries in this region have been working together in a more concerted fashion, developing new technologies, and boosting production, he said.
Some of the areas of focus for boosting military-industrial capacity that Austin mentioned include:
• Endorsing a Statement of Principles for Indo-Pacific Defense Industrial Base Collaboration, May 31, following extensive consultations with U.S. allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific region and around the world.
• Signing a memorandum of understanding with Singapore, May 31, to advance defense innovation.
• Codeveloping with Japan a glide phase interceptor to counter hypersonic threats.
• Advancing partnership with Australia and Japan on an integrated air- and missile-defense architecture.
• Making major investments in shared submarine industrial base to help strengthen AUKUS partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom.
• Making historic progress with India on coproducing fighter-jet engines and armored vehicles.
“Together with our friends in the region, we’re breaking down national barriers and better integrating our defense industries,” Austin said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
03 Jun 24. Indo-Pacific Visit Is an Opportunity to Engage With Partners.
The Defense Department, along with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, is working on critical issues — meaningful issues — that promote stability and security throughout the region, said Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III.
Austin spoke today at a news briefing in Singapore during the Shangri-La Dialogue.”It’s important to remember that every time that we come out here, we’re not just coming out to conduct meetings. We’re actually getting things done,” he said.
“That’s the purpose of being out here: to reassure, to make sure that our allies and partners understand that we have a shared vision, a common vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, and that we are a Pacific nation and we are here to stay,” he said.
“Without personal engagement, it’s very difficult to do some of that. So that’s why we’re here. And that’s why we’ll keep coming back,” Austin said.
Austin met with leaders over the last several days including:
• Indonesian Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto
• Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
• Malaysian Minister of Defense Mohamed Khaled Nordin
• Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and Singapore Minister of Defense Ng Eng Hen
• Trilateral meeting with South Korea Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik and Japan Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara
• ASEAN multilateral meeting with leaders from Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor and Vietnam
Austin is also planning additional meetings with world leaders in the days ahead. (Source: U.S. DoD)
02 Jun 24. United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Ministerial. Meeting (TMM) Joint Press Statement. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, Japan Minister of Defense Kihara Minoru, and Republic of Korea (ROK) Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik convened a Trilateral Ministerial Meeting on June 2, 2024, in Singapore. They discussed shared regional security concerns, reviewed the implementation of trilateral security cooperation lines of effort presented at the historic Camp David Summit on August 18, 2023, and discussed new initiatives to strengthen and institutionalize trilateral security cooperation to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific region, and beyond. The leaders underscored the importance of maintaining this momentum and decided to hold the Trilateral Ministerial Meeting (TMM), the Trilateral Chiefs of Defense (Tri-CHOD) meeting, and the Defense Trilateral Talks (DTT) – with the intent to rotate hosting beginning this year.
The Secretary and the two Ministers affirmed their enduring commitment to strengthen trilateral security cooperation to deter nuclear and missile threats posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and to achieve the complete denuclearization of the DPRK in accordance with relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs). They condemned the DPRK’s recent diversification of nuclear delivery systems, tests and launches of multiple ballistic missiles, the launches of what the DPRK purports to be a military reconnaissance satellite using ballistic missile technology, illicit ship-to-ship transfers, and arms shipments with Russia as clear violations of multiple UNSCRs. The United States reaffirmed its ironclad commitment to the defense of Japan and the ROK, emphasizing its commitment is backed by the full range of U.S. capabilities, including conventional and nuclear.
The three leaders urged the international community to advance its stated goal of ensuring the DPRK fully complies with its obligations under relevant UNSCRs, and affirmed they will redouble their efforts in support of effective UNSCR implementation following Russia’s veto blocking the renewal of the UN Panel of Experts’ mandate to monitor implementation of sanctions on the DPRK. The three sides also expressed concern about the DPRK’s most recent attempt to launch a military satellite and urged the DPRK to cease all further destabilizing activities immediately. They reaffirmed that a DPRK nuclear test, if conducted, would be met with a strong and resolute response from the international community. They also reiterated that the path to dialogue remains open toward peaceful and diplomatic resolution with the DPRK.
The Secretary and the Ministers stressed the importance of the rules-based international order and reaffirmed their commitment to stand with Ukraine against Russia’s unprovoked and brutal war of aggression, and recognized that Russia’s actions are a serious violation of the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty that undermine the fabric of the international order.
The three leaders exchanged views on implementing the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, Japan’s new plan for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” and the ROK Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region.
As emphasized at the Camp David Summit, the Secretary and the Ministers reaffirmed that they strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the waters of the Indo-Pacific, and they recalled their respective positions regarding the dangerous and aggressive behavior by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) supporting unlawful maritime claims that they have recently witnessed in the South China Sea. They shared concerns about actions that are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). They stressed the importance of fully respecting international law including the freedom of navigation and overflight.
Additionally, they recognized that there is no change in their basic positions on Taiwan and emphasized the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity in the international community. They called for the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues.
The Secretary and the Ministers recognized progress made since the August 2023 Camp David Summit, including the activation of a data sharing mechanism to exchange real-time missile warning data to detect and assess ballistic missiles launched by the DPRK. They pledged to enhance cooperation by further optimizing the data-sharing mechanism by the end of this year to ensure the ability to deter and counter provocations effectively.
The Secretary and the Ministers decided to execute the first iteration of the new, multi-domain trilateral exercise, FREEDOM EDGE, this summer. They reaffirmed that trilateral exercises will be executed in a systematic manner in accordance with the multi-year trilateral exercise plan, which was established last year following the August 2023 Camp David Summit.
The leaders also decided to conduct a trilateral tabletop exercise (TTX) to discuss how to effectively deter and respond, based on various threats on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Secretary and the Ministers recognized the importance of continuing to advance trilateral cooperation following the August 2023 Camp David Summit and pledged to develop a trilateral security cooperation framework within the year to institutionalize trilateral security cooperation, including senior-level policy consultations, information sharing, trilateral exercises, and defense exchange cooperation.
Japan and the ROK highlighted the importance of their bilateral ties and trilateral cooperation to protect and advance their shared security goals. The Secretary and the two Ministers committed to continue to strengthen trilateral cooperation to ensure peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula, the Indo-Pacific, and beyond. (Source: U.S. DoD)
02 Jun 24. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Meeting With Southeast Asian Defense Ministers.
Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout: Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met with Southeast Asia defense leaders from Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Timor-Leste in Singapore today to discuss opportunities to advance regional peace and stability.
Secretary Austin reaffirmed the United States’ enduring commitment to working with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and support for ASEAN centrality, highlighting progress made after the United States and ASEAN elevated their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2022. He also expressed support for the vital role of the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM)-Plus in facilitating multilateral cooperation on the region’s security challenges.
Secretary Austin underscored the significant progress made by the United States and ASEAN on regional capacity-building efforts, including by convening the first cohort of the Emerging Defense Leaders Program in May 2024; developing workshops on Women, Peace, and Security issues in support of ASEAN’s Regional Plan of Action; and developing a Maritime Security Roadmap through the ADMM-Plus Experts Working Group on Maritime Security in March 2024. Secretary Austin also highlighted ongoing U.S. support for maritime security across Southeast Asia, including through the U.S. Maritime Security Initiative and the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness initiative.
Secretary Austin reiterated concerns about coercive activity by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South China Sea. He underscored the importance of respect for high seas freedom of navigation guaranteed under international law, and he called on the PRC to abide by the final and legally binding 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award. He also expressed deep concern about the escalating violence in Myanmar and thanked regional counterparts for the April 2024 ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Statement on Myanmar. He reiterated U.S. support for full implementation of the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus.
The officials concluded the meeting by pledging to continue their cooperation in support of regional security ahead of the ADMM-Plus in November 2024. (Source: U.S. DoD)
31 May 24. Iraq: Augmented security posture will trigger mobility disruption in Baghdad following serial attacks. On 30 May, unidentified militants armed with stun grenades attacked the headquarters of the US company Caterpillar in the capital Baghdad’s al-Jadriya neighbourhood, as well as the British Cambridge Institute in Palestine Street, causing minor material damage. Hours after the attacks, the interior ministry dismissed the commander of the Police First Division, while augmenting security in the city. Given that these incidents took place days after attacks against two KFC branches in Baghdad, it is highly likely that the enhanced security posture will persist throughout the next week, elevating mobility disruption along major roads in the capital. This will increase exposure to stop-and-search operations (including weapons inspections), new checkpoints and arbitrary detentions. We also assess that due to increased hostility against some Western brands, further attacks against related establishments in the coming weeks remain possible, elevating bystander risks around Western street-level business facilities, and moderately undermining their business operations. (Source: Sibylline)
31 May 24. China-US: Defence ministers’ meeting underscores improved dialogue, but will not resolve tensions. Earlier on 31 May, China’s defence minister, Dong Jun, and his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, held talks on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue defence summit in Singapore. This was the first meeting between the two countries’ defence chiefs in two years, and the first between Austin and Dong (who was appointed in December 2023). The two officials previously held a video conference call on 16 April. A Chinese defence spokesperson stated that the talks were ‘positive, practical and constructive’. According to a Pentagon readout of the meeting, Austin expressed ‘concern about recent provocative PLA activity around the Taiwan Strait’ but emphasised that the US will seek ‘future engagements between defence and military officials at multiple levels’. The talks highlight both sides’ intent to sustain restored high-level communication since US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in November 2023. While the talks will help to stabilise the relationship (albeit slightly), there remain significant points of friction, including over trade, Taiwan and the South China Sea. We assess there is a realistic possibility of an escalation in bilateral tensions in the coming year, especially in the run-up to the US presidential election, during which US-China relations will likely feature prominently. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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