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24 May 24. China stages mock missile strikes on Taiwan, bombers with live missiles used in drills. China conducted mock missile strikes and dispatched bombers carrying live missiles on Friday in its two-day Taiwan drills, state television CCTV said, in exercises Beijing has said were launched to punish Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te.
The bombers set up several attack formations in waters east of Taiwan, carrying out mock attacks in co-ordination with naval vessels, it added, as China tested its ability to “seize power” and control key areas of Taiwan.
The two days of drills in the Taiwan Strait and around groups of Taiwan-controlled islands near the Chinese coast, which a Taiwanese official said also included the mock bombing of foreign vessels, started just three days after Lai took office on Monday. Taiwan has condemned China’s actions.
China views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and denounces Lai as a “separatist”. It strongly criticised his inauguration speech, in which he urged Beijing to stop its threats and said the two sides of the strait were “not subordinate to each other”.
The Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army said in a statement the exercises, dubbed “Joint Sword – 2024A”, were to “test the ability to jointly seize power, launch joint attacks and occupy key areas.”
A senior Taiwan security official told Reuters that several Chinese bombers conducted mock attacks on foreign vessels near the eastern end of the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines, practicing how to seize “total control” of areas west of the first island chain.
The first island chain refers to the area that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing China’s coastal seas.
The official, speaking anonymously given the sensitivity of the situation, said several Chinese coast guard boats also conduced “harassment” drills off Taiwan’s east coast, including mock inspections of civilian ships.
China’s Coast Guard said it had conducted “law enforcement drills” in waters east of Taiwan on Friday, focused on training on verification and identification, warning and repulsion.
Chinese vessel Nantong carried out combat readiness patrol and practical drill missions in the Taiwan Strait, with Taiwanese ship Zheng He following 0.6 nautical miles behind, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said.
A public relations officer of the U.S. Navy 7th Fleet said it was paying attention to “all of the activities” in the Indo-Pacific and takes “very seriously” the responsibility to deter aggression in the region.
Taiwan and the United States have no official diplomatic relationship, as Washington formally recognises Beijing but is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and is the island’s most important international backer.
The Chinese theatre command showed an animated video on Friday on its WeChat social media account of missiles being launched at Taiwan from the ground, air and sea, which then slam into the cities of Taipei, Kaohsiung and Hualien in balls of flame. CCTV later said China staged mock missiles on Taiwan attacks using dozens of missiles.
“Sacred weapons to kill independence,” read words in red, written in the traditional Chinese characters Taiwan uses, at the end of animation.
Taiwan’s armed forces have mobilised to monitor and shadow Chinese forces.
Taiwan’s defence ministry on Friday published pictures of F-16s, armed with live missiles, patrolling the skies.
It also showed pictures of Chinese coast guard vessels, which are taking part in the drills, and Chinese Jiangdao-class corvettes, though it did not say exactly where the images were taken.
The ministry said that as of 6 a.m. (2200GMT) on Friday, it had detected 49 Chinese military aircraft, 19 navy and seven coast guard ships. Of the aircraft, 28 crossed the strait’s median line, which once served as an unofficial barrier though China says it does not recognise it.
The closest Chinese aircraft got to Taiwan’s coast was 40 nautical miles (74 km) from the northern city, and navy base, of Keelung, according to a map the ministry provided.
TALKS REBUFFED
Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China but has been rebuffed. He says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
Taiwan is well used to China’s military threats, and the latest drills have caused no undue alarm on the island, with life carrying on as normal.
Taiwanese media have covered the drills, but also given a lot of time to ongoing drama about contested parliament reforms that have brought thousands of people onto the streets to protest.
On China’s highly regulated Weibo social media site, “Eastern Theatre” was the top searched item, with most of the comments supporting the drills. Another hot topic was “the return of Taiwan”.
The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong’s communists, who founded the People’s Republic of China.
The Republic of China remains Taiwan’s official name, though only 12 countries formally recognise it diplomatically, mostly small, developing nations such as Palau and Guatemala.
Analysts, regional diplomats and senior Taiwan officials noted the scale of the drills so far were smaller than the similar exercises in 2022 and were widely anticipated by Taiwanese and foreign officials, but they still raised the risk of accidents or miscalculations.
(Source: Reuters)
23 May 24. Russia arrests another of its top generals in ‘corruption purge.’ Russia has arrested its deputy head of army staff, in a move that exposes Vladimir Putin’s deepening shake-up of the military.
Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin was detained on suspicion of large-scale bribe-taking, state media reported on Thursday, the fourth high-ranking defence official accused of corruption in recent times.
On Thursday night Moscow announced it made its fifth arrest of a high-ranking defence official.
Vladimir Verteletsky, from the defence ministry’s department for ensuring state orders, “has been charged with the abuse of his official powers”, Moscow’s powerful Investigative Committee said in a statement, adding that he had been placed in pre-trial detention.
The arrest is part of a major effort to stamp out corruption surrounding the awarding of lucrative state contracts within the military, according to the state-run Tass news agency.
A military court official told Tass that Lt Gen Shamarin had been accused of accepting bribes “at an especially large scale” while a law enforcement source cited by the Kommersant daily newspaper said he was accused of unspecified “machinations”.
John Foreman, the former British defence attache in Moscow, said: “Until now, field generals got sacked when Moscow chateau generals didn’t. Now, the purge that has happened in the frontline army has started to creep into Moscow.”
The clean-up started with the arrest of Timur Ivanov, the deputy defence minister, who was placed in pre-trial detention for suspected bribe-taking. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
23 May 24. African military spending up 22% in 2023 with DRC leading the push. African military spending rose by 22% between 2022 and 2023, according to a new report, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) seeing the biggest increase to its military budget globally at 105% as the central African country battles multiple security threats.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in a new report on world military spending, found that the DRC saw the largest percentage increase in military spending – 105% – by any country in 2023 – greater even than Ukraine. There has been and is protracted conflict between government and non-state armed groups in the Central African country, with an estimated 200 militias and armed groups operating in the region, as well as Red Tabara rebels aiming to destabilise neighbouring Burundi.
In 2023 the DRC’s military spending more than doubled to reach $794m. The 2023 increase coincided with growing tensions with Rwanda, a surge in clashes with non-state armed groups, and a move by the government to strengthen the DRC’s armed forces after it demanded the early withdrawal of a large-scale United Nations peacekeeping mission in the country. This is being replaced by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIDRC), which includes South African troops.
South Africa has emerged as a key supplier to the DRC, with Paramount delivering 25 Maatla armoured personnel carriers (APCs) to the DRC police in 2023, and 20 Mbombe 4 APCs to the DRC military in early 2023. The Democratic Republic of Congo is also acquiring aircraft from Paramount, and is receiving six Mwari intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms.
Last year it emerged that the DRC had acquired nine CH-4 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. Other recent deliveries include 30 Calidus MCAV-20 armoured vehicles from the United Arab Emirates, various new small arms and light weapons from various suppliers, and seven second hand OH-58 and UH-1H helicopters from the United States.
Africa Intelligence earlier in May indicated the DRC will be acquiring 185 Hizir armoured personnel carriers from Turkey’s Katmerciler this year under a $75 m agreement.
Reports suggest that Felix Tshisekedi’s government has approved an ambitious military spending plan, worth $3.5bn from 2022 to 2025, after the United Nations eased an arms embargo on the country in 2022. The DRC is looking to buy weapons from suppliers around the world, ranging from Indonesia to Russia.
African military spending reaches $51bn
As a whole, African military spending totalled $51.6bn in 2023, which was 22% higher than in 2022 and 1.5% higher than in 2014, SIPRI reported.
The rise in 2023 can be attributed to the 20% increase in spending by Nigeria — the subregion’s biggest military spender — and notable increases in spending by several other countries including the DRC and South Sudan.
Nigeria’s military spending was $3.2bn in 2023. This included a supplementary budget that boosted the regular military budget by an additional 34%. The latest increase in Nigerian military spending comes against the backdrop of numerous ongoing security challenges.
South Sudan recorded the second highest percentage increase in military spending globally in 2023. Its spending rose by 78% to reach $1.1bn, following a 108% increase in 2022. The growth in spending can be attributed to escalating internal violence and the security challenges that have spilled over from the civil war in neighbouring Sudan, SIPRI noted.
At $28.5bn in 2023, military expenditure by North African countries was up by 38% from 2022 and by 41% from 2014. Algeria and Morocco are by far the largest spenders in the subregion, together accounting for 82% of North African military expenditure in 2023. Algeria’s military spending grew by 76% to reach $18.3bn. This was the highest level of expenditure ever recorded by Algeria and the largest annual increase in its spending since 1974. The increase was facilitated by a sharp rise in revenue from gas exports to countries in Europe as they moved away from Russian supplies. In contrast, Morocco’s military spending decreased for the second consecutive year. It fell by 2.5% in 2023, to $5.2bn.
Military expenditure in sub-Saharan Africa reached $23.1bn in 2023, which was 8.9% higher than in 2022 but 22% lower than in 2014.
Global military spending continues to rise
SIPRI reported that world military expenditure rose in 2023 for the ninth consecutive year to an all-time high of $2 443bn as war, rising tensions and insecurity manifest in various parts of the world.
“The unprecedented rise in military spending is a direct response to the global deterioration in peace and security. States are prioritising military strength but they risk an action–reaction spiral in the increasingly volatile geopolitical and security landscape,” Nan Tian, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme, said to coincide with the release of new data on global military spending. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
22 May 24. Algerian defence budget soars in response to Sahel instability. Recent GlobalData intelligence indicates that Algeria’s defence spending has more than doubled since 2020, when a flurry of coups struck its southern neighbours.
Algeria’s defence spending has more than doubled in the last four years and GlobalData projects this growth to steady in the coming decade.
This decision is made largely in response to numerous coups deposing democratically elected governments across the Sahel region, a troubled and arid strip of Africa from Mauritania to the Red Sea.
Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan have all fallen to internal crises since 2020, creating a belt of unstable countries along Algeria’s southern frontiers. This instability offers fertile ground for the growth of radicalism – a enduring problem that has plagued the region, and to which Algeria is no stranger.
With more than 1,300 kilometres of shared borders along which local communities maintain close ties, Algeria and Mali have numerous links.
Going far beyond a simple co-existence, Algiers regards Mali as vital to its geostrategic interests. Given the geographic and ethnic continuity across their respective territories, instability on one side of the border can have direct implications on the other.
Considering “the north of Mali as its natural backyard”, the potential domestic implications of Northern Malian Tuareg irredentism have been a longstanding source of concern for Algeria.
Over the years, Algeria has been involved in the Malian conflict by playing mediating roles among different parties. Accordingly, Algeria may seek to strengthen this presence by sending troops, at the very least, to the north of Mali to observe developments there and stop terrorist organisations from expanding their influence, especially if France decides to reduce its forces in the Sahel.
Algerian defence budget growth
Algeria’s defence spending more than doubled, stretching from $9.7bn in 2020 to $21bn in 2024, exhibiting a remarkable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.3%.
Looking forward, over the forecast period of 2025–29, defence expenditure is anticipated to increase from $21.5bn in 2025 to $23.2bn in 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 1.8%. Concurrently, the acquisition component of defence expenditure is anticipated to increase at a CAGR of 1.6% during 2025–29. The country is projected to cumulatively spend $111.9bn over 2025–29.
As a percentage of GDP, the country’s defence expenditure is anticipated to average 9.6% assuming the percentage of GDP will remain constant over 2025–29, compared to the historic-period average of 6.4% over 2020–24.
Russia, Algeria and the Sahel
Currently, Russia has consolidated a 20-year-old partnership with Algeria defined by economic cooperation and arms trade.
Between 2016 and 2023, Russia made up 61.3% of Algeria’s military imports, worth $5.8bn, compared to US trade worth 0.1%, or $1.1m worth of equipment. In that spirit, Algeria is in the process of procuring 14 Sukhoi 57 Felon fighter aircraft in a $2bn deal signed in 2019.
This aircraft is a fifth-generation, stealth, multi-role jet developed by United Aircraft – a part of the state-owned defence company Rostec – to destroy various land, airborne and maritime targets. This will provide substantial aerial superiority in its airspace should instability from its southern neighbours pour over the border.
However, Algeria ought to be wary of its Russian defence contracts as Russia continues to mobilise its economy on a more intense war footing against Ukraine, which will not free up its industry to deliver sales to the Global South.
Russia’s foreign policy is to double down on its relations with countries in what has been dubbed rather loosely with the troublesome label, the ‘Global South’.
Essentially, this is a vast region of the world understood to have a relatively low level of economic and industrial development, located south of a more economically vibrant Global North.
Algeria and the Sahel are integral to Russia’s policy to not only exploit Western missteps in the Global South, but also to demonstrate that the country is not out of favour with the rest of the world.
The Washington security research group the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace identifies a disruptive geopolitical motivation behind Russia’s influence in the Sahel:
“Its presence delivers good publicity that undermines Western attempts to isolate Russia.
“To be sure, Russia’s track record is mixed. It has had most success in internationally isolated and deeply troubled Sahelian states, and it has struggled to make inroads in several African democracies,” except for Algeria, which continues to prosper.
“Nevertheless, Moscow has proven that it knows how to take advantage of governance shortfalls, instability, and security vacuums in Africa.”
(Source: army-technology.com)
23 May 24. China launches ‘punishment’ war games around Taiwan. A furious China launched “punishment” drills around Taiwan on Thursday in what it said was a response to “separatist acts”, sending up heavily armed warplanes and staging mock attacks as state media denounced newly inaugurated President Lai Ching-te.
The exercises, in the Taiwan Strait and around groups of Taiwan-controlled islands that sit next to the Chinese coast, come just three days after Lai took office, a man Beijing detests as a “separatist”.
China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has denounced Lai’s inauguration speech on Monday, in which he called on China to stop its threats and said the two sides of the strait were “not subordinate to each other”.
On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Lai “disgraceful”.
Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China but been rebuffed. He says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
The Eastern Theatre Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said it had started joint military drills, involving the army, navy, air force and rocket force, in areas around Taiwan at 7:45 a.m. (2345 GMT).
The drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait, the north, south and east of Taiwan, as well as areas around the Taiwan-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, the command said in a statement.
Chinese state media said China sent out dozens of fighter jets carrying live missiles, and conducted mock strikes, along with warships, of high-value military targets.
The drills, dubbed “Joint Sword – 2024A”, are scheduled to last for two days. However, unlike a similar “Joint Sword” exercise in April last year, these drills are tagged “A”, opening the door to potential follow-ups.
Taiwan’s defence ministry condemned the drills, saying that it had dispatched forces to areas around the island, that its air defences and land-based missile forces were tracking targets, and that it was confident it could protect its territory.
“The launch of military exercises on this occasion not only does not contribute to the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, it also highlights (China’s) militaristic mentality,” the ministry said.
Taiwan’s presidential office expressed regret that China was threatening the island’s democratic freedoms and regional peace and stability with its “unilateral military provocations”, but said people could rest assured Taiwan could ensure its security.
China’s state broadcaster CCTV said Lai’s inauguration speech was “extremely harmful” and China’s countermeasures are “legitimate, legal and necessary”.
Lai’s speech was a confession of a desire for Taiwan independence and undermined peace and stability across the strait, it said.
Taiwan’s future can only be decided by China’s 1.4 billion people, not just Taiwan’s 23 million people, it added.
NO SURPRISE
A senior Taiwan official, speaking anonymously given the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters that the drills are part of a scenario Taiwan had anticipated and that the island’s government had a “comprehensive grasp” of Chinese military movements.
Taiwanese officials had said in the run-up to the inauguration they were keeping watch for Chinese military movements. China last staged large-scale war games near Taiwan in 2023 and 2022.
The drills focus on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrols, precision strikes on key targets, and integrated operations inside and outside the island chain to test the “joint real combat capabilities” of the forces, China’s military said.
“This is also a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces,” the command added.
Chinese state media published a map of the drill zones, in five areas all around Taiwan and the islands Taiwan controls near the Chinese coast.
Taiwanese officials told Reuters those areas were outside Taiwan’s contiguous zone, which is 24 nautical miles from the main island’s coast.
One of the officials said China has not announced any no-fly zones, nor has Taiwan observed any large-scale movements of China’s ground and rocket forces.
Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at Taiwan’s top military think tank, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, said that although the drills would only last two days, the scope is large relative to previous exercises, as they included Taiwan’s outlying islands.
This is designed to demonstrate China’s ability to control the seas and prevent the involvement of foreign forces, he said.
“The political signals here are greater than the military ones,” he added.
There was no sign of alarm in Taiwan, where people are long used to Chinese military activity. The benchmark stock index (.TWII), opens new tab, currently running at historic highs, was up 0.2% on Thursday.
“The drills will have a short-term psychological impact, but won’t reverse the long-term upward trend of Taiwan stocks,” said Mega International Investment Services vice president Alex Huang.
A central bank official told Reuters the foreign exchange market was operating as normal, with no abnormal entry or exit of foreign capital.
In August 2022, China launched live-fire military exercises around Taiwan immediately after a visit, much condemned by Beijing, by former U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi. That series of exercises, the scale of which was unprecedented, lasted for four days, followed by several days of additional drills. (Source: Reuters)
22 May 24. China takes measures against 12 U.S. military-linked firms. China said on Wednesday it had taken measures against 12 companies involved in the U.S. military-industrial complex and their senior executives, in response to the U.S. arming of Taiwan and sanctions on Chinese companies. The U.S. companies included units of Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab, Raytheon and General Dynamics (GD.N), opens new tab, China’s Foreign Ministry said.
The measures, which include freezing assets in China and banning senior executives from entering the country, took effect from Wednesday, it added.
The action follows U.S. “indiscriminately imposing unlawful unilateral sanctions on a number of Chinese entities on the basis of so-called Russia-related factors,” the ministry said in a statement.
China said the U.S. had “ignored its objective and impartial position in the Ukrainian crisis”, and had instead “engaged in unilateral bullying and economic coercion”.
The ministry said the U.S. has also continued to sell arms to Taiwan, which “seriously violates” the one-China principle and joint communiqués between both countries, and “seriously undermines” China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. (Source: Reuters)
21 May 24. Russian hypersonics scientists accused of betraying the state. Russia has brought a string of treason cases against scientists researching super-high flight speeds, an area that underpins its development of hypersonic missiles. In the latest, physicist Anatoly Maslov was sentenced to 14 years on Tuesday.
President Vladimir Putin has boasted of Russia’s prowess in hypersonic missiles and Moscow has acknowledged using them in the Ukraine war. Here is a summary of the cases it has launched against scientists working in this sensitive field.
ANATOLY MASLOV, ALEXANDER SHIPLYUK AND VALERY ZVEGINTSEV
All three were top scientists at the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics (ITAM) in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. Maslov and Shiplyuk were arrested in 2022, and Zvegintsev the following year. In a rare open letter a year ago, colleagues said the three men were innocent and the cases against them were damaging Russian science. Details of the charges are secret, but two people familiar with Shiplyuk’s case have told Reuters he is accused of betraying secrets to China by handing over classified material at a conference there in 2017.
VLADISLAV GALKIN
Galkin worked at another Siberian university and had co-authored papers with Zvegintsev and Shiplyuk. His arrest was reported in December 2023 but BBC Russian, said he was actually detained in April of that year. It quoted his wife as saying she had told their grandchildren he was on a business trip.
ALEXANDER KURANOV
Kuranov was handed a seven-year jail sentence for treason last month, after being accused of passing state secrets to foreign nationals. Maslov’s lawyer, without naming Kuranov, said the case against Maslov had been based on testimony against him from another person who got a seven-year term. At the time of his arrest in 2021, Kuranov was the general director of the St Petersburg-based Hypersonic Systems Research Facility, where he oversaw work on a new version of a Soviet-era hypersonic aircraft dubbed Ayaks.
ANATOLY GUBANOV AND VALERY GOLUBKIN
Both worked at TsAGI, the Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute based in Zhukovsky, near Moscow, where Gubanov was Golubkin’s boss.
Gubanov, arrested in December 2020, had been working on an international project called HEXAFLY-INT to develop a hypersonic civil aircraft powered by hydrogen fuel. In October 2023 he was found guilty of handing over state secrets and sentenced to 12 years.
Golubkin, arrested in April 2021, was jailed for 12 years in June 2023 after being found guilty of passing secrets to a NATO member state. However, the verdict was annulled last month and a new trial ordered.
(Source: Reuters)
21 May 24. Boeing to invest C$240m in Canadian aerospace development. Boeing will invest a total of C$240m ($176m) in three Canadian aerospace development projects as part of an agreement to sell Poseidon military surveillance planes to Ottawa, the company said on Tuesday.
Canada and the United States reached a C$5.9bn deal agreement last November for the purchase of up to 16 Poseidons and related equipment. As part of the agreement, Boeing agreed to invest in Canadian enterprises.
The C$240 m, to be spent in the province of Quebec, will be divided between an aerospace innovation zone, a center focusing on a four-seat air taxi and a firm researching advanced landing gear, Boeing said in a statement.
“These investments serve as a testament to Canada’s aviation leadership and exemplify Boeing’s unwavering commitment to the country,” said Boeing Global president Brendan Nelson. ($1 = 1.3639 Canadian dollars)(Source: Reuters)
22 May 24. New Zealand proposes 6.6% cut in defence spending amid personnel and equipment woes. New Zealand’s conservative government will cut military spending by 6.6%, according to the defence minister’s office, even as the armed forces struggle with ageing equipment, a shortage of manpower and ambitions for a greater regional role. According to previously unreported data, provided to Reuters by the defence minister, proposed defence spending will fall to NZ$4.95bn ($3.03bn) for the year that ends in June 2025. This year’s defence budget was NZ$5.3bn. The new budget, to be presented on May 30, would put New Zealand’s defence spending at 0.9% of GDP, down from 1% in the current year, according to the defence force.
The cuts come as recent government reports have warned about old equipment, and the military has struggled to hire and retain personnel. Alongside those challenges, the government wants to improve the state of the country’s armed forces and take on more regional and global missions – as well as investigate a bid to join the AUKUS defence pact.
“I have been consistently clear that Defence will need more funding and am committed to supporting Defence,” Defence Minister Judith Collins told Reuters in an email, adding that big decisions on capital spending would be made after the completion of a Defence Capability Plan in June.
The cuts put New Zealand at odds with many of its traditional partners, such as Australia and Japan, which are ramping up spending in response to China’s growing military presence in the region.
Japan, which spent roughly 1% of GDP on defence as recently as 2022, will hit about 1.6% next year and aims to reach 2% by 2028. Australia will go from 2% to around 2.4% over the next decade.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has worked hard to increase international engagement since taking office, including sending a maritime security team to the Red Sea. But falling revenue and rising debt have hamstrung the country’s ability to boost defence spending even as it says it is concerned about China’s growing presence in the Pacific and a worsening global security environment.
“The government has made it clear that it wants to spend more on defence and be seen to be doing more in the defence space, but decades of sustained underinvestment mean chickens are coming home to roost,” said David Capie, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University. “It’s not going to be fixed in one budget; it’s going to take significant and sustained investment over a long period of time.”
The country’s Finance Ministry presents the government budget, which parliament must approve. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said in an email that the government had announced NZ$571m of new spending over the next four years. The government noted that defence force spending in the current year had been significantly boosted by large capital expenditure on new C-130J aircraft. The government has said it wants to cut spending on average by 6.5% to 7.5% across all agencies.
Three of the Royal New Zealand Navy’s nine ships are already stuck in port for want of crew. The Air Force’s Boeing (BA.N) 757-2K2s regularly break down, and in March, Luxon had to take a commercial jet to an ASEAN summit after his plane was grounded.
New Zealand also had to ask other countries for help with maritime surveillance and regional search rescue operations after retiring its P-3K2 Orions five months early because of staff shortages.
In February, outgoing Chief of Defence Air Marshal Kevin Short estimated that the country was just over NZ$5 bn behind in defence spending from where it was projected to be in the 2019 Defence Capability Plan.
He told a parliament committee this year that “readiness continues to be one of the New Zealand Defence Force’s greatest challenge”.
AUKUS UNLIKELY
New Zealand’s lagging military spending and ability will damage its chances of joining a technology-focused part of the AUKUS defence pact, diplomatic sources say. The government is in the midst of discussions on what joining would entail.
Australia, Britain and the United States signed the pact in 2021. At its core is a plan to help Australia build nuclear-powered submarines, but a second stage to develop other military technology, such as hypersonic missiles, is open to more countries. Both South Korea and Japan have expressed interest.
Diplomatic sources say prospective joiners need to bring money, technology or industrial capacity to the table to justify the extra complexity that comes with adding members.
That puts New Zealand at a disadvantage, according to a source in New Zealand government.
“You need to show some money,” said a diplomat from an AUKUS country based in Australia. Both sources declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
“You’ve got to show you’re investing in the industrial base that would make you a useful ally, otherwise you’re adding complexity without benefits,” the source in Australia said. (Source: Reuters)
21 May 24. Georgia: Tbilisi is unlikely to abandon controversial foreign agent bill despite US incentives. Reports emerged on 20 May that the US is willing to offer Georgia significant economic and security support if the government reverses its increasingly anti-West stance and stops democratic backsliding. According to a draft bill, the US would start talks with Georgia to open a preferential trade regime (while also offering other benefits) on the condition that Tbilisi meets certain political criteria. The initiative would also provide for the development of a military support package, including security and defence equipment ‘ideally suited for territorial defence against Russian aggression’. At the same time, the bill proposes sanctioning officials responsible for pushing forward controversial foreign agent legislation approved last week. The US is almost certainly attempting to incentivise Georgia to abandon the bill, though the Georgian Dream (GD)-led government is highly unlikely to change course. Ultimately, we assess that the enforcement of the legislation will highly likely strain tensions between Tbilisi and the West, thus jeopardising Georgia’s EU ambitions and increasing the risk of sanctions. (Source: Sibylline)
21 May 24. SANDF underfunded, overstretched, and in need of clear direction. South Africa’s foreign policy is confused, with no clear plan on the deployment of an underfunded, overstretched and old South African National Defence Force (SANDF).
This is according to Ricardo Teixeira, Rise Mzansi Candidate for the National Assembly and defence and national security advocate. He was speaking at the inaugural AMD National Safety and Security Townhall event held in Sandton on 15 May, when South Africa’s political parties expanded on their defence and security policies.
Teixeira started out by saying South Africa has a wonderful Constitution, but its national security priorities need to be redefined in a constantly changing world. He said South Africans must ask what they need and want as a country, as “South Africa’s foreign policy has been all over the place. We’ve had some successes, some failures…With regard to the deployment to the DRC, government has done a bad job informing the public why that deployment is necessary.”
It does not help that the SANDF is underfunded, overstretched, and old. “It recently came out that the average age of deployable soldiers in the SANDF is 40. And when it comes to our structure it reflects that. We’re still using Casspirs and vehicles and equipment that is over 40 years old,” Teixeira told the Townhall assembly.
Regarding force structure, when the SANDF was originally established in 1994, it was not expected to ever again engage in conflict. “That was immediately proven false with the 1998 coup in Lesotho in which we had to intervene in.”
Today, Teixeira said, “we need to look at the risks that we are facing. Most importantly, not only do we have a large coastline…we also have one of the largest exclusive economic zones in the world at approximately 1.5 m square kilometres, and we have three naval vessels to patrol this entire coast,” with smugglers and other criminals operating in South African waters.
Terrorism is another concern, with insurgents operating across the border in Mozambique. Teixeira said it is too soon to be withdrawing from the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), and this was evidenced by the insurgent attack on Macomia this month as SAMIM withdraws by July.
Internally, “we have constantly relied on the military to perform tasks that are supposed to be left to other departments. Every year we ask them to do more with less. We are deploying the military to fight illegal mining, to protect the borders, to protect infrastructure. Some could argue these are the priorities of the defence force but at the end of the day it’s the priorities of the police.” Teixeira said that the police fail, but every year get a bigger budget, while the SANDF gets less money and has to pick up the slack.
Regarding cyber, South Africa “is as naked as a newborn baby, so much so we are being used as a hacker testing ground,” and South Africa needs better intelligence and to leverage international security partnerships, with the right countries.
South Africa’s national security issues can be solved by first defining the national interest. “We need to focus our national security, and we need to clearly define what the defence force needs to be. This is something the government has failed to do over the last 20 years. We had the 1998 White Paper on Defence, the 2015 Defence Review, the 2020-2025 Strategic Defence Framework. We need a new Defence Review.”
Teixeira said Rise Mzansi doesn’t have all the answers, and things won’t be fixed overnight, but some things that can be done to improve national security are to focus on peacekeeping and counterinsurgency operations, with an improved and better equipped Special Forces capability able to deploy rapidly to asymmetrical threats – this would help avoid disasters like the Battle of Bangui and the Palma attack.
The SANDF should also develop appropriate exit mechanisms and career planning for soldiers, to avoid rank stagnation and allow new soldiers opportunities to progress. Technology must be acquired to serve as force multipliers. Teixeira noted that there is fact budget for new equipment – for example surveillance radars, armoured vehicles and sensors for border protection, but due to procurement issues, little has been delivered yet aside from half a dozen vehicles for border patrol. He said the main problem is political will, and “the desire to get things done is just not there.” This ties in with Rise Mzansi’s slogan of ‘We need new leaders.’
(Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
21 May 24. Argentine defence modernisation hinges on Trump re-election.
While GlobalData suggests Argentina will be unable to modernise defence, US exports to the libertarian republic may spike under a potential Trump administration.
Argentina’s suffering economy will be unable to support vital defence modernisation over the next several years GlobalData intelligence indicates. However, US defence exports may see an uptick under a prospective administration led by the US presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Besides being cut from the same political cloth, Trump has previously endorsed the libertarian eccentric Javier Milei as Argentine president for his austere economic measures.
Moreover, the Argentine government’s decision to purchase 24 US-manufactured F-16 Fighting Falcon jets from Denmark at the end of March 2024, over the Chinese JF-17 fighter, points to a diplomatic understanding between the two nations.
Defence modernisation is key
“Modernisation is going to be key for Argentina in future years, and today,” GlobalData Defence Analyst Wilson Jones observed.
“Our Intelligence Centre tool indicates 57.8% of all units in their fleet are older than 30 years, which is very high. The cost of maintaining such old pieces will continue to rise, but so does the cost of buying new kit.”
Currently, Argentina’s combat and transport aircraft, armoured vehicles, and artillery units are in a poor state. It is doubtful that Argentina could respond effectively to a direct military threat to its security or national interests. There are scarce financial resources to fund or modernise the armed forces.
Bottom of Form
Argentina cannot respond to defence decline alone
GlobalData intelligence suggests that the Argentine government is anticipated to stabilise its defence investment in the next decade.
Last year the country’s procurement growth rate fell to -29%, GlobalData expects this figure to fall further to -64.9% this year.
However, Argentina is due to see an acquisition growth rate of 178.9% in 2025 and the givernment will continue to steadily invest 0.1% each year thereafter.
Argentine defence budget and growth rate, 2020-29. Credit: GlobalData.
A prospective Trump administration?
Since the inauguration of incumbent president Joe Biden in 2021, US defence exports to Argentina have fallen considerably. GlobalData says that the US has only given transport and utility aircraft since he came to office. Most recently, the US State Department green-lit Argentina’s purchase of a Basler BT-67 turboprop aircraft in mid-April.
Graph displaying US defence exports to Argentina, 2017-23. Credit: GlobalData.
During Trump’s administration (2017-21), the US government exported maritime patrol aircraft worth $589m, training and light attack aircraft worth $259m, armoured multi-role vehicles worth $103m, transport and utility helicopters worth $156m, tactical trucks worth $86m and light utility vehicles worth $2m to Argentina.
“I don’t think it is unreasonable to say that a second Trump administration would greenlight more sales to Argentina,” another GlobalData defence analyst Fox Walker suggested. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
21 May 24. Cameroon: Conflict with armed separatists will continue to drive physical security risks for staff. On 20 May, gunmen killed a local mayor and two other people in the town of Belo (Northwest region) on their way to join festivities on Cameroon’s National Day. Numerous armed separatist groups are active across Cameroon’s Northwest, though none have claimed responsibility for the latest attack. However, attacks on government officials and the security forces are a frequent feature of the ongoing Anglophone conflict in Cameroon’s Northwest and Southwest regions. In addition, National Day marks an annual flashpoint for such attacks. On 10 May, separatist fighters ambushed and killed a commander of a gendarmerie brigade and four officers in the town of Eyumojock (Southwest). We assess that further attacks targeting government officials and the security forces will almost certainly take place in the coming months. This will sustain heightened threats to businesses and NGOs reliant on local security outfits, particularly during overland movement through the two impacted regions; bystander risks will also be sustained in the vicinity of security and government facilities in urban centres. (Source: Sibylline)
20 May 24. Niger Leaves Open Continued Military Engagement With U.S.. U.S. service members will withdraw from the West African nation of Niger no later than Sept. 15, U.S. officials said yesterday following five days of negotiations in Niamey, Niger.
The officials said the United States and Niger should still be able to work on issues of mutual interest in the region following the exit.
For more than a decade, U.S. service members had been working with the Nigerien military to strengthen the force in the face of growing threats from violent extremist groups in the Sahel and West Africa. In July 2023, a military junta overthrew the elected government of Niger, installing the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland — known by the abbreviation CNSP — to rule the country.
The CNSP called for U.S. service members to leave country, and U.S. defense officials said Niger and the United States agreed on the process yesterday.
“The Nigeriens committed to a number of things, including the ongoing protection of U.S. forces,” a senior defense official said.
Overall, the official said, the relationship between the U.S. and Nigerien military remains strong. “We have a lengthy history with them going back well over a decade, and working with them over the course of these discussions proved out that that relationship is very strong,” the official said. “Obviously, we’re working against the backdrop of much more challenging political situation.”
A senior military official said the Nigeriens “were keen to keep opportunities open for future engagements, and we’re looking forward to future dialogues. They thought it was important to emphasize that they did not see this as the closing of the relationship, but that a new relationship needed to be negotiated based on what the CNSP desires were.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
21 May 24. Conroy blasts Coalition over ‘zombie projects’ and ‘fraud’ amid budget furore. Australian Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy blasted “overprogramming”, “zombie projects” and “fraud” within the previous Coalition government’s defence portfolio, during remarks made at the Defence Connect Budget Summit.
Addressing members of the defence industry, Minister Conroy said he empathised with the challenges faced by the domestic defence industry and confirmed the federal government has had to make hard decisions about projects that don’t meet the nation’s strategic circumstances.
However, Minister Conroy laid the blame at the feet of the previous Coalition government, alleging that the Coalition mismanaged Defence funds that resulted in “fraud” against the defence industry.
“We are confronting challenges that we have had to deal with (for Defence funding). We were dealing with massive overprogramming form the last government; overprogramming levels were reaching 140 per cent. There were contracts and programs for 140 per cent of the Defence budget for a given year,” he said.
“We had zombie projects that were perpetuating a fraud upon the defence industry and chewing up resources in Defence.
“We made the hard but honest decision that these projects were important but we can’t go forward with them because they don’t meet the strategic urgency. We have been really clear about that.
“Funding must be realistic and deliverable … I can appreciate that some in this room and in the defence industry have suffered because the last government perpetuated a fraud of $42bn, and we have been dealing with that right now.”
Minister Conroy, speaking at the event, detailed several new projects being developed and said he is eager to see new production pathways established for the defence industry – to fund their ideas into reality.
The summit follows the release of the 2024 federal budget, announcing more than $1bn over three years from 2024–25 to accelerate priority investments in targeting, long-range fires, theatre logistics, fuel resilience and robotic and autonomous systems.
The budget also announced $11.1bn over 10 years from 2024–25 to deliver the new surface combatant fleet for Navy and $38.2bn over seven years from 2027–28, and $7.7bn a year every year after that to support the next-generation capabilities within the rebuilt Integrated Investment Program. During the event, shadow minister for defence Andrew Hastie also took to the stage to share the opposition’s opinion of federal budget funding announced for the defence industry.
“Under the Albanese government, we don’t have a clearly articulated threat. We don’t have a clear strategy to deter and defeat it. And the defence budget demonstrates this,” he said.
Hastie added, “$50.3bn of additional spending over the next 10 years but only $5.7bn of additional spending over the forward estimates. Most of that funding in fact, $3.8bn, occurs in the final year of 2027–28.
“The back end of the forwards, not the front end which is the here and now. Where it matters.
“Under the Albanese government, we’ll become weaker before we get stronger; just as the strategic risk in the Indo-Pacific is peaking.”
(Source: Defence Connect)
20 May 24. Congo (DRC): Coup attempt likely to prompt heightened security posture, protest risks. At around 0400hrs (local time) on 19 March, gunmen attacked the Palais de le Nation and the home of parliamentarian Vital Kamerhe in the Gombe district of the capital Kinshasa as part of an alleged coup attempt. Security forces killed two assailants during these attacks, including coup leader Christian Malanga, and arrested around 50 others, including three US citizens, one of whom is Malanga’s son. Malanga is allegedly a former member of the Congolese armed forces but spent several years living in the US. In addition, he had built up an online presence criticising the Congolese government while acting as president of a largely unsuccessful opposition party. A heightened security presence will likely remain in place in the Gombe district and around government buildings over the coming days, driving localised transit disruption. While the US has said it will cooperate with any investigations into the coup, the involvement of US nationals, likely personal acquaintances of Malanga, will elevate the risk of a more substantial US intervention. As such, there is a limited possibility of protests targeting the US embassy and disrupting access to consular services, though security forces are likely to disperse such demonstrations. (Source: Sibylline)
20 May 24. Uganda: Operations against IS-aligned forces will reduce attack risks on major urban centres. On 19 May, the Ugandan military captured a commander of the IS-aligned Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militant group during a military operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC’s) Ituri province. The commander is reportedly an expert in the production of IEDs, which the ADF has repeatedly used during its operations. Since June 2023, the ADF has launched several attacks into Uganda, marking the first major incidents since Uganda and the DRC launched joint operations against the group in 2021. The uptick in attacks likely underscores the Congolese armed forces’ preoccupation with combatting domestic military pressures posed by the M23 rebel group. This latest operation likely reflects an escalation in Ugandan efforts to compensate for deteriorating Congolese engagement. While the porous nature of the border will sustain the threat of further incursions into western Uganda, heightened military operations will likely reduce the risk of attacks in major urban centres, including the capital Kampala. (Source: Sibylline)
20 May 24. Libya: Elevated security risks likely to persist in Zawiya throughout this week following clashes. On 18 May, violent clashes between two heavily armed groups associated with the Ministry of Interior’s First Support Force and the Presidential Council’s Stability Support Apparatus in Zawiya (Zawiya District) 40 kilometres west of the capital Tripoli, killed one person and injured several others. While clashes have now ceased following tribal mediation, significant security risks in the city are highly likely to persist throughout the week, given severe instability and the possibility of arbitrary arrests. The Ministry of the Interior and militias affiliated with local clans will likely augment their security posture in the city, particularly in the Abu-Surah area. This will include the establishment of checkpoints on the city’s main roads and the highway connecting it with the capital, elevating mobility disruption. There is also a realistic possibility of local power cuts this week due to damage to electricity infrastructure sustained during the clashes. (Source: Sibylline)
19 May 24. Joint Statement From the U.S. Department of Defense and the Department of National Defense of the Republic of Niger. Representatives of the U.S. Department of Defense and the Department of National Defense of the Republic of Niger met from May 15 to 19, 2024, in Niamey, Republic of Niger, as part of a Joint Disengagement Commission, to coordinate the orderly and safe withdrawal of U.S. forces from Niger. These discussions between the militaries were conducted in complete transparency and with perfect mutual respect between the two parties.
The U.S. Department of Defense delegation was led by the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, Mr. Christopher Maier; and the Director of Joint Force Development in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Lieutenant General Dagvin Anderson. The delegation of the Ministry of National Defense of Niger was led by the Chief of Staff of the Army, Colonel-Major Mamane Sani Kiaou.
The U.S. Department of Defense and the Ministry of National Defense of Niger and have reached a disengagement agreement to effect the withdrawal of U.S. forces, which has already begun. It is therefore agreed that this disengagement will end no later than September 15, 2024.
Both delegations confirmed the guarantees of protection and security to the American forces during their withdrawal. The delegations also established procedures to facilitate the entry and exit of U.S. personnel, including overflight and landing clearances for military flights.
The U.S. Department of Defense and the Nigerien Ministry of National Defense recall the joint sacrifices of Nigerien and U.S. forces in the fight against terrorism and commend each other’s efforts to build up the Nigerien Armed Forces. The Parties undertake to continue cooperation in areas of common interest.
The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Niger does not affect the continuation of U.S.-Niger development relations. The United States and Niger are committed to ongoing diplomatic dialogue to define the future of their bilateral relations. (Source: U.S. DoD)
17 May 24. Senegal: Possible French military base closures point to raised anti-French sentiment, protest risks. On 16 May, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko announced that his administration would possibly seek to close France’s military bases in Senegal. France maintains approximately 350 troops in the capital Dakar. They are primarily engaged in regional military training and operate two bases. Sonko has also proposed reforming the CFA franc (XOF), a regional currency pegged to the euro (EUR), highlighting his cultivation of populist regional trends regarding opposition to French economic and military influence. Although Sonko’s government is unlikely to dismiss French troops immediately, there is a realistic possibility that his statements will mobilise protest activity calling for the bases’ closure in the coming weeks. Such demonstrations would likely target installations associated with the French government, such as military bases and the French embassy in the Dakar Plateau area, driving localised travel disruption and limiting access to consular services. We assess that demonstrations targeting French-owned businesses are unlikely but remain possible, driving risks of sporadic operational disruption. Increasing bilateral tensions will also likely undermine broader economic and security co-operation in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
20 May 24. Iran: President’s death increases operational disruption risks. On 19 May, a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed near Varzaqan (East Azerbaijan province), killing all passengers on board. Among the dead are Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Malek Rahmati (the governor-general of East Azerbaijan) and Mohammad Ale-Hashem (Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representative in East Azerbaijan). The crash occurred amid heavy fog and poor weather conditions in the mountainous region, which likely significantly impacted visibility.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The crash leaves a substantial leadership vacuum within Iran’s conservative movement. President Raisi was a hardline conservative; he was considered a possible successor to Supreme Leader Khomeini. Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian worked closely with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly over its Middle East policy.
- The incident highlights the significant risks facing aviation and air travel in Iran. Western sanctions have substantially limited access to replacement parts for aircraft, impacting maintenance and repair capacity.
- The Temporary Presidential Council will organise a special election for Raisi’s successor within 50 days. First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will serve as acting president until this time.
FORECAST
Supreme Leader Khomeini has declared five days of national mourning, elevating operational disruption risks nationwide. The mourning period will almost certainly restrict access to government services, elevating the risk of disruption for operations and supply chain continuity. Funeral proceedings for the deceased will take place in the coming days, elevating travel disruption risks. As Iranian public figures are generally buried in their places of birth, the largest processions for the deceased will likely occur in Damghan (Semnan province), Tabriz (East Azerbaijan) and particularly around President Raisi’s funeral in Mashhad (Razavi Khorasan province).
The security forces will almost certainly adopt an elevated posture in major urban centres nationwide to deter anti-government protest activity, elevating human rights concerns. There is a realistic possibility of an uptick in anti-government protests, particularly following funeral processions in major urban centres. Demonstrations are particularly likely in the capital Tehran, as well as in East Azerbaijan, Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchistan and West Azerbaijan provinces. The security forces will almost certainly crack down on any protest activity, driving sporadic bystander risks near large gatherings. An elevated security posture around religious and government buildings will also increase harassment and arbitrary detention risks, driving human rights concerns. Increased restrictions on internet access are also highly likely, further disrupting business operations.
An election for Raisi’s successor will sustain protest risks in the coming 50 days, though policy risks will remain low. The elections are unlikely to result in a significant shift in Iran’s domestic or foreign policy, as power remains highly concentrated within the Supreme Leader’s remit. However, there is a realistic possibility of reformist activists attempting to capitalise on the leadership vacuum resulting from the crash, driving the risk of sustained anti-government protest activity and clashes with the security forces, particularly around election events and polling stations. (Source: Sibylline)
20 May 24. South Korea’s military said, a day after South Korea and the U.S. flew powerful fighter jets in a joint drill that the North views as a major security threat. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the weapons launched from the North’s east coast Wonsan region traveled about 300 kilometers (185 miles) before landing in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said a North Korean missile landed outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff statement called the launches “a clear provocation” that threatens peace on the Korean Peninsula. It said South Korea will maintain a firm readiness to repel potential aggressions by North Korea in conjunctions with the military alliance with the United States. North Korea has extended its run of weapons testing in recent months as part of its efforts to enlarge and modernize its arsenal while diplomacy with the United States and South Korea remains stalled. Last week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised the test firing of a new multiple rocket launch system, according to the North’s state media. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/AP)
17 May 24. Weak SANDF tarnishes national image and compromises SA’s ability to protect its sovereignty. If the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is perceived to be weak, or in fact is, this tarnishes South Africa’s national image and compromises its ability to protect the country’s sovereignty, and also undermines South Africa’s global standing as a manufacturer of world class military products.
This was one of the key messages from Sandile Ndlovu, South African Aerospace Maritime and Defence Industries (AMD) Association CEO, who delivered opening remarks at the inaugural AMD National Safety and Security Townhall event held in Sandton on 15 May, when South Africa’s political parties expanded on their defence and security policies.
In explaining the rationale for hosting the Townhall event, Ndlovu said as South Africa gears up for the national elections on 29 May, “we believe it is our duty to shine a spotlight…on the state of the country’s safety and security, with the hope that this will be the first of many conversations regarding solutions to our country’s safety and security challenges.”
The challenges to South Africa’s national security and defence capabilities are numerous, especially the financial investment required to ensure that South Africa has the personnel, technology, and infrastructure required to fulfil its national security mandate, namely the protection of people, borders, environment, and infrastructure.
“Despite slight increases in the defence budget over the past few years, our spending remains far below the international norm (0.7% of GDP versus 2% of GDP),” Ndlovu said. “This under-investment limits our ability to fulfil our defence commitments and hampers our operational effectiveness.”
A weak SANDF compromises South Africa’s ability to protect its national sovereignty, affects soldiers’ morale and also “undermines our global standing as a manufacturer of best-in-class military products.”
“The consequence is the industry’s inability to export its goods, and worse, our ability to contribute meaningfully to the fiscus. We must urgently address these challenges through comprehensive dialogue and action, and that is why we are all here today. We are hoping that through this National Safety and Security Townhall, we facilitate crucial discussions regarding the challenges confronting South Africa’s national security and possible solutions to these challenges.”
Ndlovu said that South Africa stands at a crossroads, “and our response from tonight onwards will determine the future of our SANDF’s capabilities and the industry’s transformation and growth. We must always be reminded that the primary object of the defence force is to defend and protect the Republic, its territorial integrity, and its people in accordance with the Constitution and the principles of international law. A well-equipped SANDF benefits not only South Africa but allows us to fulfil the international obligations of the Republic.”
Michelle Nxumalo, AMD Acting Chairperson, said that as the National Elections approach on 29 May, “it is paramount that we engage in informed discussions about national safety and security. The decisions made at the ballot box will have profound implications for the future of our defence industry and the overall security landscape of our nation.
“By fostering open and informed dialogue, we empower citizens to make educated choices and hold our elected representatives accountable for their policies and commitments regarding national security.”
Ahead of South Africa’s main political parties deliberating on national security, Dr Vasu Gounden, Founder and Executive Director of ACCORD (The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes), gave a keynote address on national security.
Looking to the past, Gounden noted that before 1994, South Africa built an effective offensive military and police capability with a strong defence industry. Post-1994 saw a shift to peacekeeping operations, and internally a police service focussed on fighting crime.
Today, one of the greatest challenges facing the country is the triple issue of poverty, inequality, and unemployment. Over the coming decades, Africa will see a rise in social and political conflict, Gounden said, with porous borders already being filled by radicalised insurgencies and organised crime. This will get worse as Africa’s population grows. Insurgencies have already increased by 400% over the last decade.
Close to home, South Africa faces the Mozambique insurgency across the border, “which is not dealt with and growing.” The country is also dealing with organised crime, smuggling at sea, and other issues.
“Conflict is on the rise and political parties need to address the question of security,” Gounden said. There is a big debate between security and development, but without development, insecurity will worsen, and there will be more crime and instability. There needs to be a balance between security and development, he said, with the challenge for political parties being how to respond, especially as “time is against us.”
Gounden suggested that the intelligence services need to address rising organised crime, the police need to be equipped to mitigate conflict, South Africa needs to stabilise the continent and be involved in international deployments to ensure stability and economic security, and the defence force needs new equipment and training to adapt to changing roles, particularly peace enforcement. “The defence industry is a catalyst for other industries. We need to grow the South African defence industry to contribute to development,” he said.
“Are we secure as a nation? Every party should have an answer to security questions,” Gounden said, and urged national dialogue between parties after the 29 May elections. “We must unite in seeking bold and innovative solutions,” he added, pointing out there should be consensus as most parties have similar views on the importance of defence and security. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
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