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20 May 24. Iran Live: President Raisi dead after helicopter crash.
Regional reactions
IRAQ PRIME MINISTER MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI, IN A STATEMENT:
“With profound sadness and deep sorrow, we received the tragic news of the passing of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and their companions, due to the unfortunate plane crash incident in northern Iran. We extend our heartfelt condolences and sympathies to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, and to the nation of Iran, its government and people. We express our solidarity with the brotherly Iranian people and the officials of the Islamic Republic during this painful tragedy.”
QATAR’S EMIR SHEIKH TAMIN BIN HAMAD AL-THANI, ON X:
“Sincere condolences to the government and people of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian, and the accompanying officials in the painful helicopter accident, asking God Almighty for mercy and forgiveness for them and for their families with patience and solace. We belong to Allah and to Him we shall return.”
PAKISTAN PRIME MINISTER SHEHBAZ SHARIF, ON X:
“I along with the government and people of Pakistan extend our deepest condolences and sympathies to the Iranian nation on this terrible loss. May the martyred souls rest in heavenly peace. The great Iranian nation will overcome this tragedy with customary courage.”
“Pakistan will observe a day of mourning and the flag will fly at half mast as a mark of respect for President Raisi and his companions and in solidarity with brotherly Iran.”
HAMAS:
Hamas conveyed its “deepest condolences and solidarity” to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian government, and the Iranian people for “this immense loss.”
It praised the deceased Iranian leaders for supporting the Palestinian cause and resistance against Israel and expressed confidence that Iran’s “deep-rooted institutions” will enable it to overcome “the repercussions of this great loss.”
MOHAMMED ALI AL-HOUTHI, HEAD OF YEMEN’S HOUTHI SUPREME REVOLUTIONARY COMMITTEE, ON X:
“Our deepest condolences to the Iranian people, the Iranian leadership, and the families of President Raisi and the accompanying delegation on their reported martyrdom. We ask God to grant their families patience and solace. Verily we belong to Allah and to Him we shall return. The Iranian people will remain adhering to the loyal leaders of their people, by God’s will.”
INDIAN PRIME MINISTER NARENDRA MODI ON X:
“Deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise of Dr. Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. His contribution to strengthening India-Iran bilateral relationship will always be remembered. My heartfelt condolences to his family and the people of Iran. India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow.”
President Ebrahim Raisi, 63, who became president in 2021, ordered a tightening of morality laws and oversaw a bloody crackdown on anti-government protests, our colleague Dominic Evans reports.
He also pushed hard in nuclear talks with world powers.
A year after his election,he ordered tighter enforcement of Iran’s “hijab and chastity law” restricting women’s dress and behaviour.
Raisi had full backing for the nuclear stance and the security crackdown from his patron, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Within weeks, a young Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, died in custody after being arrested by morality police for allegedly violating that law.
The resulting months of nationwide protests presented one of the gravest challenges to Iran’s clerical rulers since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Hundreds of people were killed, according to rights groups, including dozens of security personnel who were part of a fierce crackdown on the demonstrators. “Acts of chaos are unacceptable,” the president insisted.
The helicopter was found in a remote area
Search teams located the wreckage in East Azerbaijan province.
Rescue teams fought blizzards and difficult terrain through the night to reach the wreckage in the early hours of Monday.
An Iranian official told Reuters the helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian was completely burned in Sunday’s crash.
“President Raisi, the foreign minister and all the passengers in the helicopter were killed in the crash,” the senior Iranian official told Reuters, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
State TV reported that images from the site showed the aircraft slammed into a mountain peak, although there was no official word on the cause of the crash. (Source: Reuters)
16 May 24. New Caledonia: Security situation remains significantly volatile amid state of emergency. On 15 May, French President Emmanual Macron issued a decree declaring a state of emergency in New Caledonia, where major riots began on the night of 13 May. Since the start of the riots, exchanges of fire were reported between civil defence groups and rioters in the capital Nouméa and the commune of Païta. Several hundred people were reportedly wounded and the police have arrested nearly 200 others; a total of five people have died, including two security personnel. Arson attacks and pillaging were also reported. Nouméa’s La Tountouta International Airport (NOU) remains closed to commercial flights. A curfew has not prevented clashes taking place in Nouméa, though High Commissioner Louis Le Franc stated that the night of 15 May experienced marginally less violence than the nights of 13 and 14 May. A state of emergency will entail a heightened security force presence across the island, as well as movement restrictions. The nightly curfew will be implemented again from 1800hrs (local time) on 16 May to 0600hrs on 17 May. We assess that safety risks and disruption will likely persist in the coming days and possibly even weeks; the French authorities are working to establish an airbridge to transport security personnel and essential items to the territory. (Source: Sibylline)
16 May 24. Georgia: Possible freezing of EU membership bid will highly likely sustain unrest risks. Reports emerged on 15 May that the EU will freeze Georgia’s membership bid if Tbilisi enacts a law requiring organisations that receive funding from abroad to register as foreign agents. Unspecified EU officials claimed that a decision to start accession talks would likely be postponed ‘indefinitely’ if the legislation enters into force. Although Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili has vowed to veto the bill, another parliamentary vote could override any such move (which we assess is highly likely to be the case). Georgia was granted EU candidate status in December 2023. Georgian society remains overwhelmingly in favour of joining the bloc. The EU’s reported willingness to freeze Georgia’s EU path is almost certainly an attempt to push the Georgian Dream (GD)-led government to abandon the legislation, which has triggered intense domestic unrest in recent weeks. Should the bloc suspend Tbilisi’s membership bid, we assess that this would highly likely sustain domestic unrest risks and further entrench anti-government sentiment, testing the stability of the ruling GD. (Source: Sibylline)
16 May 24. Morocco: Heightened security posture is likely following arrest of IS cells, elevating bystander risks. On 14 May, Morocco’s Central Bureau of Judicial Investigations (BCIJ) stated that it dismantled a four-member Islamic State (IS) cell active across the cities of Tiznit (Souss-Massa region) and Sidi Slimane (Rabat-Salé-Kénitra region). The authorities seized tactical equipment as well as a collection of manuscripts and digital extremist media. The development follows the 3 May dismantling of a five-member cell active across four cities. The recent operations highlight the elevated risks of radicalisation and terrorism in Morocco, which will likely sustain the authorities’ heightened security posture in major cities in the coming weeks. This will likely include checkpoints along major desert highways connecting urban centres and related mobility disruption risks along these roads. We assess that the authorities are also likely to increase the frequency of their stop-and-search operations, particularly in regions adjacent to the borders with Algeria and Western Sahara, such as Drâa-Tafilalet, Oriental and Souss-Massa. (Source: Sibylline)
16 May 24. Xi lauds China-Russia ties as Putin lands in Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to work with counterpart Vladimir Putin to “rejuvenate” their countries as the pair started a day of talks in Beijing, saying China would “always be a good partner” of Russia, according to Chinese state media. Putin arrived earlier on Thursday for a two-day state visit that will include detailed talks on Ukraine, Asia, energy and trade with Xi, his most powerful political backer and fellow geopolitical rival of the United States.
“The China-Russia relationship today is hard-earned, and the two sides need to cherish and nurture it,” Xi told Putin as they met at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing for their opening session.
“China is willing to…jointly achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries, and work together to uphold fairness and justice in the world.”
China and Russia declared a “no limits” partnership in February 2022 when Putin visited Beijing just days before he sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine, triggering the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two.
By picking China for his first foreign trip since being sworn in for a six-year term that will keep him in power until at least 2030, Putin is sending a message to the world about his priorities and the strength of his personal ties with Xi.
As they met, Putin told Xi that their co-operation was a stabilising factor.
“It is of crucial significance that relations between Russia and China are not opportunistic and are not directed against anyone,” Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency cited Putin as saying.
In an earlier interview with China’s Xinhua news agency before his departure, Putin praised Xi for helping to build a “strategic partnership” with Russia based on national interests and deep mutual trust.
“It was the unprecedentedly high level of the strategic partnership between our countries that determined my choice of China as the first state that I would visit after taking office as president,” Putin said.
“We will try to establish closer co-operation in the fields of industry and high technology, space and peaceful nuclear energy, artificial intelligence, renewable energy sources and other innovative sectors.”
Informal chats between the leaders and senior officials of both sides to be held over tea and dinner later on Thursday are expected to be key to the two-day trip.
Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said those talks would range over Ukraine, Asia, energy and trade.
Putin’s newly appointed defence minister, Andrei Belousov, as well as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Ushakov will also attend, along with Russia’s most powerful CEOs.
It was not immediately clear if Gazprom (GAZP.MM), CEO Alexei Miller would go to China as he was on a working visit to Iran on Wednesday.
CELEBRATION OF 75 YEARS OF TIES
Putin, 71, and Xi, 70, will participate in a gala celebration of 75 years since the Soviet Union recognised the People’s Republic of China, which Mao Zedong declared in 1949.
Xinhua confirmed Putin’s arrival for a state visit and the expected talks with Xi, while dozens of large Russian and Chinese flags fluttered around Tiananmen Square amid police patrols.
Some commentaries have hailed the pair’s “great power diplomacy”.
The event is the top trending item on the Chinese social media platform Weibo, with 1.4 m search requests.
The United States casts China as its biggest competitor and Russia as its biggest nation-state threat while U.S. President Joe Biden says this century will be defined by an existential contest between democracies and autocracies.
Putin and Xi share a broad world view, which casts the West as decadent and declining, just as China challenges U.S. supremacy in everything from quantum computing and synthetic biology to espionage and hard military power.
Putin will also visit the northeastern city of Harbin, which has historic ties to Russia. A mall devoted to Russian-made goods from about 80 Russian manufacturers opened on Thursday, the China Daily said.
China has strengthened trade and military ties with Russia in recent years as the United States and its allies imposed sanctions on both countries, particularly Moscow, for its invasion of Ukraine.
Western governments say China has played a crucial role in helping Russia withstand the sanctions and has supplied key technology that Russia has used on the battlefield in Ukraine.
But China, once Moscow’s junior partner in the global Communist hierarchy, is by far the most powerful of Russia’s friends globally.
Putin’s arrival follows a mission to Beijing late last month by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in part to warn China’s top diplomat Wang Yi against deepening military support for Russia. (Source: Reuters)
15 May 24. Russian troops leave Karabakh, now back under Azerbaijan’s control. A total of 1,960 Russian peacekeepers had been housed in 10 barracks at the base in Khojaly, a town in the Karabakh region. Despite the deployment, Azerbaijan recaptured Karabakh in a lightning offensive last September, prompting an exodus of 100,000 ethnic Armenians who had enjoyed de facto independence since breaking away in the 1990s in the first of two wars between the South Caucasus neighbours.
“The presence of Russian peacekeepers made it possible to establish peace on Azerbaijani soil,” Russian Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov said at the departure ceremony.
Azerbaijan’s chief of the general staff, Colonel General Kerim Valiyev, said Russia had made “every effort to establish peace in the Karabakh economic region” and bring decades of conflict to an end.
Armenia has a very different take on Russia’s role. It has accused Moscow of failing it by doing nothing to prevent Azerbaijan from taking Karabakh by force and conducting what it calls ethnic cleansing, something Azerbaijan denies.
Armenia has suspended its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a defence grouping of former Soviet states that is dominated by Russia.
Armenia was not represented at Wednesday’s ceremony, where folk dances and patriotic songs were performed and Russian troops departed to the strains of a military band.
Nikiforov said the Russian force could take credit for providing humanitarian assistance, clearing more than 30,000 explosive devices, returning more than 110 prisoners of war and arranging the return of more than 1,900 fallen soldiers to the respective sides.
(Source: Reuters)
15 May 24. Australia unveils record $37bn defense budget. Australia will spend a record AU$55.7bn (U.S. $36.8bn) on defense during the next fiscal year, according to budget documents unveiled May 14.
The figure equates to 2.02% of gross domestic product and represents a 6.3% increase from last year.
Australia’s national defense strategy released last month, promised a significant increase in spending, but that does not start until 2027-2028, when defense expenditure is slated to reach about AU$67.4bn.
Beyond that, the government still has a ways to go to hit its defense spending goal of AU$100 bn by 2033-2034, which would be 2.3% of GDP.
In this latest budget release for the 2024-2025 time frame, the government has set aside AU$16.7bn for equipment acquisitions in the coming fiscal year, plus another AU$17.2bn to sustain existing assets.
The Navy receives a significant allocation of AU$10.7bn. Nuclear-powered submarines are starting to consume an enormous portion of the budget as the trilateral AUKUS agreement progresses.
Notably, spending on nuclear submarines will snowball from last year’s AU$475m to AU$2.8bn in the coming year, eventually reaching AU$4.97 bn in 2027-2028.
By comparison, six Hunter-class frigates and six Arafura-class offshore patrol vessels are to receive AU$813m and AU$587m, respectively.
The budget makes no reference to 11 new general-purpose frigates, which the government is expected to select next year.
The Army is promised AU$11.8bn as it procures expensive assets such as Boxer armored vehicles, Redback infantry fighting vehicles, Huntsman self-propelled howitzers, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, M1A2 Abrams tanks, National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, and UH-60M Black Hawk and AH-64E Apache helicopters.
The Air Force will receive AU$9.5bn, with F-35A fighter jets being its single-most expensive acquisition; nine of 72 fighters remain undelivered.
Budget figures also revealed that the arrival of four MC-55A Peregrine electronic warfare aircraft is running two years behind schedule.
The Australian Signals Directorate, which conducts foreign signals intelligence, cybersecurity and offensive cyber operations, will receive AU$2.7bn. A further AU$1 bn is allocated to defense intelligence.
Australian military procurements are handled by the Capability Acquisition and Sustainment Group. The government in 2021 formed the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance enterprise to promote the sovereign production of missiles and munitions. Together, they will receive AU$1.3bn in the next fiscal year.
For its part, Ukraine garnered AU$144.3m in military aid for the year ahead, as it continues its fight against a Russian invasion.
Meanwhile, the Defence Department wants 63,597 uniformed personnel and 19,127 civilian employees in the year ahead. The Australian Defence Force, or ADF, is currently made up of about 58,600 uniformed personnel. The department is made up of about 18,000 civilian employees.
“[The Department of] Defence is forecasting to be below the required ADF fulltime workforce for 2024-25 due to high separation rates and lower than expected achievement of recruitment targets over recent years,” the budget document stated.
The new budget also noted that last year’s spending on personnel costs surpassed estimates by AU$1 bn because of increased living costs. About AU$16.7bn is to be spent on the workforce this coming fiscal year.
Approximately AU$6.6bn will go toward maintaining the security and condition of Defence Department property. Before the budget was announced, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy promised between AU$14 bn and AU$18 bn would go to upgrading and hardening military bases in northern Australia over the next decade.
“The Northern Territory is critical to the defense of the nation, not just in defending Australia, but projecting power out into our region against any potential adversary,” Conroy said.
The 2024 National Defence Strategy, released last month, cited “increasing strategic competition” between China and Australian ally the United States, adding that the former seeks “to change the current regional balance in its favor.”
“China has employed coercive tactics in pursuit of its strategic objectives, including forceful handling of territorial disputes and unsafe intercepts of vessels and aircraft operating in international waters and airspace,” the document stated.
Jennifer Parker, an expert associate at the Australian National University, warned that despite promised increases in defense spending, there is “a significant gap in ADF capability over the next 10, maybe 15 years. This gap coincides with the most strategically unstable geopolitical situation since [World War II].” (Source: Defense News)
15 May 24. Taiwan: Heightened Chinese military activity around island is likely ahead of inauguration. Earlier on 15 May, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence (MND) stated that it had detected 45 Chinese military aircraft around Taiwan in the 24-hour period before 0600hrs (local time). This represents the highest number in 2024 so far. In all, 26 of the aircraft crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait (the unofficial border between the two sides which Beijing does not recognise). Additionally, on 14 May, Taiwan’s coast guard monitored five Chinese coast guard vessels in the ‘restricted’ waters south of Kinmen (outlying islands controlled by Taiwan but situated close to mainland China). They left after Taiwan dispatched patrol boats. The increase in military and ‘grey-zone’ activity coincides with the upcoming inauguration of Lai Ching-te on 20 May, whom Beijing views as a separatist. Consequently, we assess that military activity around Taiwan is likely to increase in the coming week, though we do not assess that China currently seeks to escalate the situation significantly. (Source: Sibylline)
15 May 24. Moldova: Proposed security pact with EU will likely heighten Russian retaliatory destabilisation risks. Reports emerged on 14 May that the EU is set to agree on a security and defence partnership with Moldova next week. The proposal will reportedly see Chișinău increase its intelligence-sharing activity, participate in military exercises and be included in the EU’s joint weapons procurement mechanism. Moldovan and European agencies will also seek to bolster their co-operation to tackle foreign manipulation, as well as cyber and terror threats. According to Moldova’s foreign ministry, the partnership will not enjoy the status of an international treaty, but will be based on political commitments instead. Moldova’s constitution enshrines the nation’s ‘permanent neutrality’, though the agreement clearly underscores Chișinău’s efforts to shore up its security amid ongoing Russian attempts to destabilise the country. Should Chișinău and the bloc officially reach such an agreement in the near term, we assess that regional tensions with Moscow will almost certainly heighten; this will possibly result in greater Russian or pro-Russian destabilisation efforts, including anti-government unrest, disinformation operations, bomb scares and border tensions with Transnistria. (Source: Sibylline)
15 May 24. Venezuela: Threats to suspend election, military build-up point to elevated regional tensions. In an anonymous interview on 14 May, a general in the Venezuelan armed forces disclosed that President Nicolas Maduro will possibly cite matters of national security as justification for suspending the July presidential election. In a bid to cement his position as the leading candidate even further, the source claims that Maduro will possibly instrumentalise the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over Essequibo region as a means of delaying the election. According to reports published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on 14 May, Venezuela increased the number of military personnel and equipment stationed at its border with Guyana between mid-March and mid-April. In the short-to-medium term, we assess that Venezuela will likely continue to expand its military presence near Guyana, though the risk of armed conflict remains very low. Human rights risks and those pertaining to arbitrary detention will remain elevated throughout July. (Source: Sibylline)
15 May 24. Sweeping Corruption Purge in Russian Defense Ministry Following High-Profile Arrests. Lieutenant-General Yuri Kuznetsov, head of the Defense Ministry’s personnel department, was arrested by masked security forces on charges of accepting bribes. The arrest occurred shortly after President Vladimir Putin replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov, a move signaling a major reshuffle aimed at revitalizing the military’s leadership amid the war in Ukraine.
The charges against Kuznetsov are linked to allegations that from 2021 to 2023, he accepted significant bribes from commercial enterprises to facilitate favorable actions within his official capacity. This arrest is part of what appears to be a wider crackdown within the Defense Ministry, which has seen other high-ranking officials, including Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, facing similar accusations. The Kremlin has framed these arrests as part of an “anti-corruption purge,” essential for introducing innovation and efficiency within the military sector, particularly highlighted by the appointment of Belousov, who lacks a traditional military background but is praised for his economic expertise. The recent upheavals within the ministry also reflect ongoing tensions and the repercussions of last year’s mutiny led by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, which has been cited as a catalyst for these dramatic changes.
Pro-war factions within Russia, linked to the late Prigozhin, have reportedly expressed satisfaction with these developments, interpreting them as overdue justice against what they perceive as pervasive corruption that has undermined the Russian military’s effectiveness in Ukraine. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
13 May 24. Canada Releases Defense Policy Update to Boost Security.
Canadian Defense Minister William Blair today discussed updates to his country’s defense policy with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, who hosted an enhanced honor cordon and meeting at the Pentagon.
The policy update was needed because “the world is changing,” Blair said, noting the war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
Canada will need to make significant military investments to fulfill the policy update, but the increased defense spending will help Canada reach 2% of its gross domestic product to meet its NATO commitment, he said.
Blair said investments will include:
- New capabilities and equipment to enhance Arctic and North American security;
- Modernization of the North American Aerospace Defense Command;
- Supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression; and
- Bolstering NATO’s defense.
Blair said Canada is increasing its military presence in Latvia. Also, Canada is hoping to soon stand up a Canadian-led multinational brigade.
The accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO will strengthen the alliance’s security in the Arctic region, Blair said.
“Canada has no closer friend than the United States. We have stood by each other in good times and in challenging times as close partners in defense and security,” he said.
“Our unparalleled partnerships allow us to maintain stability and prosperity here in North America and around the world,” he said.
Canada is a great neighbor, dependable friend and steadfast ally. Our countries have stood together for over a century, protecting our homelands, building a prosperous North America, upholding democracy and defending freedom worldwide. We’re proud to continue working shoulder to shoulder with you.”
Austin said the policy update underscores the importance of defending the Arctic, enhancing cyber and space capabilities, and modernizing Canada’s defense infrastructure and equipment.
“I commend you on the DPU and look forward to working together on implementation.”
The secretary thanked Blair for his nation’s support for Ukraine, including the announcement last month of Ottawa’s plan for drone production in Ukraine.
Besides the policy update, Austin said today’s talks will include:
The United Nations-authorized, multinational security-support mission for Haiti;
Advancing a shared vision for a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region;
Updating the positive progress of NORAD modernization efforts, which are critical for the air and maritime defense of both the U.S. and Canada; and
Ways to address continued Houthi attacks on military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
“Canada is a great neighbor, dependable friend and steadfast ally. Our countries have stood together for over a century, protecting our homelands, building a prosperous North America, upholding democracy and defending freedom worldwide. We’re proud to continue working shoulder to shoulder with you,” Austin said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
13 May 24. Georgia: Anti-West Shift.
Key points
- The likely adoption of a controversial foreign agent law underscores Georgia’s deteriorating governance standards and threatens the country’s EU bid; this will in turn sustain large-scale unrest and government stability risks.
- New and proposed restrictive laws likely form part of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party’s ambitions to stifle civil society ahead of the October parliamentary elections.
- The approval of the foreign agent law and increasing anti-West rhetoric will likely render Georgia less attractive for Western investment in the longer term.
Georgia: Parliament will almost certainly pass foreign agent bill, despite possible presidential veto. Earlier on 13 May, the Georgian parliament’s legal affairs committee approved the highly contested foreign agent bill. The vote occurred amid a highly tense social context, with intense protests taking place outside the parliament building. Also on 13 May, the Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that 20 people, including three foreign citizens, were arrested during overnight demonstrations on 12-13 May. On 14 May, the parliament will vote on the bill during a plenary session. As it retains a parliamentarian majority, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party will highly likely succeed in passing the bill. On 12 May, President Salome Zurabishvili stated her willingness to veto the bill. However, GD will leverage its parliamentarian majority to override any such veto. The final vote on the bill will likely trigger intense anti-government protests, which we assess will likely continue in the coming days, causing elevated traffic disruption and risks for bystanders.
Context
On 29 April, the founder of GD, an oligarch called Bidzina Ivanishvili, delivered his first speech since announcing his return to Georgian politics in December 2023. The speech set out an unambiguous anti-West stance in support of the highly controversial ‘foreign agent bill’. The bill aligns with Russia’s 2012 foreign agent legislation. Lawmakers voted on the third and final reading earlier on 13 May – a key trigger for unrest. Under the guise of promoting transparency, the bill will highly likely increase operational pressure on NGOs and media companies in Georgia, especially those receiving Western funding.
Ivanishvili’s speech underscored GD’s commitment to passing the legislation, despite large-scale anti-government protests in the capital Tbilisi. While the foreign agent bill is the cause of the ongoing unrest, Ivanishvili’s speech also marked a key inflection point in Georgia’s wider domestic and foreign policy. Ivanishvili strongly criticised the West, and claimed that a Western ‘global party of war’ is seeking to drag Georgia into a conflict with neighbouring Russia. He also claimed that it is leveraging NGOs to unseat the government. As such, GD’s growing anti-West stance will increase pressure on NGOs and undermine Georgia’s EU accession prospects.
Forecast
The Russian-style foreign agent bill underscores GD’s wider efforts to stifle civil society
The initial draft of the bill was proposed in February 2023 and triggered mass pro-EU and anti-government protests (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 6 April 2023). While this forced the parliament to withdraw the bill, its re-introduction in April sparked repeat demonstrations in Tbilisi.
The foreign agent bill requires entities that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as ‘organisations pursuing the interests of a foreign power’. It proposes the imposition of fines of up to GEL 25,000 (USD 9,365) for entities that fail to register and requires that they provide comprehensive revenue and expense declarations. The draft law also empowers the Ministry of Justice to conduct ‘thorough investigations’ to ensure that entities registered as foreign agents comply with the bill’s provisions which increase auditing requirements and pressures. In the long term, we assess there is a realistic possibility that GD will amend the bill to include more restrictive provisions so as to intensify the crackdown on civil society organisations and independent media.
The foreign agent bill is part of a wider trend of worsening human rights and deteriorating governance standards. On 25 March, GD introduced a draft law restricting LGBTQI+ rights. The proposal aims to ban sex changes, to deny same-sex couples the right to adopt children and to prohibit public ‘gatherings aimed at popularising same-sex family or intimate relationships’. On 29 April, Ivanishvili stated that the ruling party must pass such laws before the upcoming elections, as doing so would allow for anti-government protests to lose momentum. We assess that GD will highly likely introduce further legislation that stifles Georgian civil society during the run-up to (and after) the parliamentary elections in October.
The foreign agent bill is likely a key element of GD’s strategy to ensure victories at the upcoming elections
Passing the foreign agent bill is likely a key part of GD’s bid to secure victories at both the parliamentary and presidential elections this autumn. Beyond appealing to Georgia’s conservative electorate, the bill will allow GD to discredit NGOs as agents of destabilising foreign influencers. In particular, we assess that the bill stands to threaten the operations of independent national and international election monitoring groups that have systematically denounced GD’s efforts to amend the electoral code to its advantage.
On 26 October, Georgia will hold parliamentary elections under a fully proportional system for the first time. The switch to this system follows constitutional amendments in 2017 and represents a new challenge to GD’s bid to secure a majority of seats (as it will possibly empower smaller opposition parties). However, GD reneged on its promise to remove the election threshold of 5% for the coming parliamentary elections. The threshold, combined with an existing ban on the formation pre-electoral blocs, will almost certainly be highly detrimental to smaller parties attempting to unite against GD.
With regard to the upcoming presidential vote, a parliamentary electoral college will elect Georgia’s next president. The Central Electoral College (CEC) will approve its composition. However, a bill voted in June 2023 withdraws the president’s right to nominate CEC members, granting it instead to the parliament, where GD retains a majority. As such, the latest constitutional amendments will allow GD to leverage its parliamentary majority to influence the outcome of the coming presidential election. (Source: Sibylline)
12 May 24. Canada, US to talk Canada’s NORAD next-gen air weapons systems. Continuous discussions on the revamp of Canada’s North American Aerospace Defense Command [NORAD] between Canada and the US are set to resume on May 13. On this day and the subsequent one, May 14, in Washington, Bill Blair, the Defense Minister of Canada, has lined up several meetings. Of these, the most significant is expected to be his meeting with the United States Defense Secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III.
According to the Canadian Ministry of Defense, Blair will make a statement to the Atlantic Council while in Washington. Interestingly, not just official diplomats, but significant players in the realm of US cybersecurity and the defense industry are also set to make their appearance at this event.
NORAD is a significant priority for Canada, representing the largest defense investment in nearly four decades, costing an impressive $38.6 bn. Given the massive scale and intricate design of this project, it’s estimated that NORAD’s complete overhaul will be a long-drawn effort spanning approximately two decades.
The Canadian government has initiated an expansive two-decade transformation plan for all NORAD units under their control. This is not limited to an overhaul of command and control systems but also extends to the integration of futuristic sensors. The revamped Canadian division of NORAD will boast new, state-of-the-art air-to-air weaponry, witness upgrades to existing infrastructure and support facilities, and experience a significant investment in scientific and technological breakthroughs.
Elaborating further, the ambitious project includes the development of a new early warning radar system capable of identifying potential dangers over the Arctic Circle. It also features the introduction of a technologically advanced space surveillance system, the incorporation of cutting-edge air-to-air missiles, and the addition of air-to-air refueling vehicles into the fleet.
Canada utilizes the CF-18 Hornet fighter aircraft as a cornerstone for NORAD operations. Serving multiple roles, these aircraft come armed with a wide spectrum of air-to-air and air-to-ground weaponry, including the AIM-9 Sidewinder short-range air-to-air missiles, and the AIM-120 AMRAAM medium-range air-to-air missiles.
Additionally, Canada leverages the capabilities of the Multi-Mission Effects Vehicle [MMEV], which serves as a ground-based air defense unit. The MMEV comes equipped with a hybrid mix of short-range air defense and anti-tank-guided missiles. This versatile system is engineered to engage diverse targets, spanning from aircraft and helicopters to unmanned aerial vehicles.
Finally, a significant Canadian contribution to NORAD’s defense strategy lies within the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System [BMEWS]. This specialized radar system is specifically designed to detect inbound ballistic missiles. Although BMEWS isn’t a weapon system per se, its role in providing early warning signals is crucial to the mitigation and response of potential missile attacks.
The fascinating part is that the quantum leap towards modernizing Canada’s NORAD units is already well underway. For instance, Canada has already embraced the future with the successful implementation of a trailblazing cloud-based command and control software integrator [CBC2] at the start of this year.
Underlining this cutting-edge technology advance, Major General Ian Huddleston, the Chief Commander of the Canadian NORAD Region, emphasized that this innovative progress would arm Canadian operators with the latest tools necessary for maintaining comprehensive situational awareness on the battlefield while enhancing NORAD’s quick response to imminent threats. “We are all eagerly looking forward to the introduction of this tech advancement, promising to take a considerable leap forward,” expressed Major General Huddleston.
CBC2 is designed with multiple strategically relevant data streams, along with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities. These features give decision-makers a broader understanding of the situation. This data is analyzed by the platform to produce potential courses of action, aiding leaders in making more effective and timely decisions that improve operational outcomes.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command, also known as NORAD, is a joint venture between the United States and Canada. Its responsibilities include providing aerospace warnings, upholding air sovereignty, and protecting Northern America. It was established during the Cold War with the purpose of monitoring and responding to potential air threats against North America.
NORAD employs a myriad of advanced systems designed to identify and counteract various threats. These range from early warning systems that utilize radar and satellite technology for threat detection, to command and control systems used for coordinating responses. It’s important not to overlook communication systems, which facilitate an unimpeded flow of information between organizational sections.
The agency has specialized software for handling the immense volume of data collected from sensors. This includes software for identifying and monitoring possible threats, decision-support software for data-informed command decisions, and simulation software for training exercises and war games.
To deflect incoming threats, NORAD is armed with an array of air-to-air missiles. These range from short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles, ideal for close combat scenarios, to medium-range AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles capable of engaging targets beyond visual range. When long-range capability is required, the AIM-54 Phoenix comes into play, with its ability to engage multiple targets at substantial distances simultaneously.
The catalyst for Canada’s decision to overhaul its NORAD lies in what they’ve identified as “a notably evolving global security landscape.” This transformation has primarily been illustrated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the escalating impacts of climate change, along with the advancement of innovative weaponry technologies, like hypersonic weapons and state-of-the-art cruise missiles, also play significant roles. (Source: Google/https://bulgarianmilitary.com/)
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