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26 Apr 24. Africa is the new global terrorism epicentre. The epicentre of terrorism has shifted out of the Middle East and into the Central Sahel, which now accounts for over half of all deaths from terrorism, according to a new report.
The latest Global Terrorism Index 2024 publication by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) found that while the number of terror attacks globally declined 22% last year to 3 350, deaths skyrocketed by 22% to reach 8 352, the highest level since 2017.
Although Israel suffered the largest terrorist attack in 2023, it was not the country most impacted by terrorism. Burkina Faso is now ranked first on the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). In the 13 years that the GTI covers, it is the first time a country other than Afghanistan or Iraq has been top of the index: almost 2 000 people were killed in terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso in 258 incidents last year, accounting for nearly a quarter of all terrorist deaths globally.
“The impact of terrorism in Burkina Faso has increased every year since 2014, with terrorism also surging in its neighbours, Mali and Niger. In Burkina Faso in 2023, deaths from terrorism were up 68%, even though attacks decreased by 17%,” the IEP reported.
Regionally, the report found that the impact of terrorism is far higher in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia than any other regions in the world. These three regions accounted for 94% of deaths from terrorism in 2023, with sub-Saharan Africa alone accounting for just under 59% of all fatalities.
“The epicentre of terrorism has now conclusively shifted out of the Middle East and into the Central Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. There were just under four thousand deaths from terrorism in the Sahel in 2023, or 47% of the total. The increase in terrorism in the Sahel over the past 15 years has been dramatic, with deaths rising 2 860%, and incidents rising 1 266% over this period,” the IEP found.
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger account for most of the terrorism deaths in the region. All three face uncertain futures, having suffered from coups, weak governance, and fragile relations with neighbouring countries, exemplified by their recent withdrawal from ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States).
There is some indication that terrorist activity in the Sahel is beginning to spread into neighbouring countries, as Benin and Togo each recorded more than 40 deaths from terrorism for the first time last year.
Particularly in the Sahel region, there is a strong correlation between organised crime and terrorism. “As terrorist groups like JNIM have expanded their territorial control in the region, there has been a surge in kidnappings, ransom demands, and attacks on gold mining operations. Terrorist groups integrate organised criminal operations by co-opting illicit economies, taxing both criminal and unregulated legal enterprises, and providing security for criminal groups and the transportation of illicit goods,” the IEP reported.
The IEP’s latest report found the average Global Terrorism Index score deteriorated slightly in sub-Saharan Africa in 2023 – of the 28 countries that recorded a deterioration globally between 2022-2023, ten were in the sub-Saharan region, and five of ten countries most impacted by terrorism in 2023 were in sub-Saharan Africa.
However, 15 countries recorded improvements in their score. In total, 22 countries in the region have a GTI score of zero, meaning that they have not recorded a single terrorist incident in the past five years.
Terrorist attacks in sub-Saharan Africa dropped to 1 205 in 2023, compared to 1 368 in 2022, a decrease of 12%. Despite the number of attacks decreasing, the number of deaths rose by 21% to 4 916 in 2023, compared to 4 066 the year prior, indicating an increase in the lethality of attacks across the region.
Burkina Faso, Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda had the largest increase in the number of people killed in terrorist attacks.
Angola recorded the worst deterioration in GTI score in the region within the last year, after experiencing the country’s first attack since 2018 and its first terrorist related deaths since 2010. Three soldiers and two Brazilian civilians were killed in an armed attack on a military vehicle in May 2023. The Front for the Liberation of Cabinda Enclave claimed responsibility.
Uganda experienced the second largest deterioration in GTI score in the region in 2023, after having recorded no attacks nor deaths in the previous year. The country saw a resurgence in terrorism by the Islamic State, which carried out all five attacks in 2023 and was responsible for all 42 deaths that year. Thirty-seven of those deaths occurred in an attack at Lhubiriha secondary school in Mpondwe town on 16 June. The victims included students and staff at the school.
The IEP report found Benin and Togo also recorded significant continued deteriorations in their scores in 2023, driven by the spread of jihadist extremist activity from the neighbouring Sahel region. All 35 attacks and 90 deaths that occurred in Benin and Togo in 2023 were attributed to Islamic extremist groups including JNIM and ISWA.
Despite slightly improving in GTI score in 2023, Mali had the second highest impact of terrorism in the region. Attacks and deaths within the country fell by seven and 20% respectively, with 253 incidents and 753 deaths. The IEP found Mali faces many of the same issues as Burkina Faso and Niger, with JNIM being the most prominent terrorist group in the country.
Tanzania was the most improved country in the region in 2023, with the country recording zero incidents for the second consecutive year. Burundi and Côte d’Ivoire also recorded no incidents for the second year in a row, and Rwanda which recorded no incidents for the fourth consecutive year. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
26 Apr 24. India and Mozambique hold first defence industrial engagement.
Mozambique’s defence minister Cristovao Chume was the main guest at the inaugural India-Mozambique Defence Industrial Interaction, held in Maputo this week.
The High Commission of India in Mozambique said the first edition of this event took place between 25 and 26 April, giving an opportunity for government and private defence companies from India to come together with officials from the Ministries of Defence, Mozambican military (FADM) and Mozambican civil security agencies to discuss cooperation in defence production and procurement.
The Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) was represented by Anurag Bajpai, Additional Secretary, Ministry of Defence (Department of Defence Production), who also provided an overview of the advances made by India in the field of defence production.
Robert Shetkintong, High Commissioner of India to Mozambique, highlighted the traditionally close relations between the two countries and encouraged the participants to engage in constructive collaboration beneficial to both nations.
Some 20 public and private Indian companies were represented at the inaugural India-Mozambique Defence Industrial Interaction, “reflecting the enthusiasm amongst them to partner and collaborate with Mozambique and to support Mozambique Defence Armed Forces and Civil Defence Agencies in addressing their requirements,” the High Commission stated.
“A wide range of topics related to defence hardware, security systems, cyber security, communication, drones and niche technologies were covered during the Interaction, which saw the Indian companies presenting their products to the Mozambican officials in the event.
“With an array of distinguished industry players from both sides, the Defence Industry Interaction resulted in productive sessions of discussions. The Interaction concluded on 26 April 2024 with several B2G and B2B meetings paving the way for greater cooperation in the field of Defence and Security,” the High Commission concluded.
India has been cultivating good relations with Mozambique and other African nations for some time, and most recently took part in the Tri-Lateral Exercise (Trilat) last month with the Mozambican and Tanzanian navies. India sent two naval vessels, the cadet training ship INS Tir (A86) and the Sukanya-class patrol ship INS Sujata (P56), for the exercise, which was held from 21 to 29 March with the aim of strengthening cooperation between India, Mozambique, and Tanzania.
The first edition of the India-Mozambique-Tanzania (IMT) Trilat exercise was conducted in October 2022, with the participation of the frigate INS Tarkash (F50) exercising with the Tanzanian and Mozambique Navies.
Earlier cooperation with Mozambique could be seen after Cyclone Idai hit the southern African nation in March 2019, prompting India to provide medical assistance and relief materials and divert three of its naval ships to Mozambique for rescue operations.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, India implemented the ‘Mission Sagar’ initiatives, through which emergency medical supplies, medical expert teams, and food aid were provided to several African countries, including Mozambique, which received hundreds of tons of food aid.
India aims for a greater maritime presence and stronger ties with the African littoral countries. India is focused on developing friendly relations with the littoral and island states of Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Seychelles, Madagascar, and Mauritius, all of which have extensive coastlines in the Indian Ocean.
India has supplied military equipment to Mozambique, which has helped boost its defence preparedness and military capabilities. For example, in December 2021, the Indian Navy handed over two 16 metre Solas Marine fast interceptor craft to Mozambique and provided military training.
December 2021’s vessel donation to Mozambique was not India’s first – in July 2019, India handed over two 30 metre long Larsen & Toubro interceptors (named Namiliti and Umbeluzi) to the Mozambican Navy as part of an agreement to strengthen defence cooperation between the two countries. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
26 Apr 24. U.S. Special Forces to Withdraw from Chad Amid Regional Shifts. The Pentagon will soon withdraw 75 Army Special Operations personnel operating in N’Djamena, the capital of Chad, responding to demands from African governments for changes in the terms of US military presence. This development in Chad coincides with a similar reduction in Niger, where approximately 1,000 troops are set to be withdrawn. These decisions reflect a broader negotiation over the terms under which US forces are stationed in these countries, with both Chad and Niger seeking arrangements more favorable to their national interests.
The move comes as a direct response to a letter from the Chadian government earlier this month, which signaled a potential end to the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States. This agreement outlines the legal conditions for the presence of US military personnel in Chad. While the letter stopped short of explicitly ordering US forces to leave, it demanded their exit from a French-operated facility in N’Djamena, where US personnel have been based.
US officials remain hopeful that negotiations on security cooperation can resume following the upcoming elections in Chad on May 6. However, this withdrawal occurs amid a shift in regional dynamics, with some African nations, including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, exploring closer security ties with Russia. This realignment poses significant challenges for US strategic interests in the region, particularly in the context of counterterrorism and security policy in West and Central Africa. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
25 Apr 24. Sudan: RSF offensive in El Fasher will drive significant risks to humanitarian staff. On 24 April, the US called on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to immediately cease attacks in North Darfur’s capital, El Fasher. After the RSF seized the town of Melit, effectively blockading El Fasher on 15 April, clashes with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have persisted in eastern, northern and western areas of the city. Given the strategic importance of El Fasher for enabling the RSF to consolidate its control of Darfur, the group will almost certainly sustain its offensive. Further clashes are likely in the coming days, including indiscriminate SAF aerial bombing operations, driving collateral risks to humanitarian staff and assets. The RSF’s blockade of El Fasher will intensify humanitarian aid disruption, with the city having become a critical humanitarian hub. Should the RSF secure control of the city, which is likely, inter-communal violence will escalate, elevating threats to humanitarian staff and driving the risk of conflict along the Chadian border, further impeding aid delivery. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Apr 24. Ramaphosa extends SANDF deployment to Mozambique even as withdrawal begins. SA National Defence Force (SANDF) Commander-in-Chief, President Cyril Ramaphosa, has added seven months to the deployment of the SANDF to the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) that aims to curb Islamist violence in particularly Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province.
This was confirmed by way of a letter to Acting National Assembly (NA) Speaker Lechesa Tsenoli dated 15 April, and published in Parliament’s Announcements, Tablings and Committee (ATC) reports of 22 April.
The date of 15 April is significant as it is the day the original Operation Vikela deployment ended. The Presidential missive informed parliamentarians the “employment” of SANDF personnel would now run from 16 April to 31 December this year at an expected cost of R984 368 057.
The commitment to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) is “in fulfilment of an international obligation” via the regional bloc to support President Felipe Nyusi’s government against hostile ASWJ (Ansar al-Sunna Wa Jamma) elements.
The 1 495 strong South African deployment, with the SA Army Infantry Formation providing the bulk, was supported by engineering and logistic personnel with SA Air Force (SAAF) and SA Military Health Service (SAMHS) on active duty for the then three-year lifespan of the mission.
On 7 April the South African contingent in Mozambique staged a farewell parade ahead of exiting the country. At the time they were the second troop contributing country (TCC) to SAMIM to leave following Botswana.
The following week, on 13 April, Major General Patrick Njabulo Dube, the SAMIM Force Commander, visited South Africa’s Forward Operating Base (FOB) in Macomia to evaluate the readiness of Combat Team Charlie to withdraw.
“South Africa has always advocated for collective defence and is a country that does not stand back when other nations are experiencing challenges, be it humanitarian needs or in a conflict situation. There are a lot of expectations from South Africa as a country and from you as soldiers of the SA National Defence Force,” Dube said. “The contribution of the SA National Defence Force is remarkable and commendable in bringing peace and stability in Cabo Delgado and the community of Mozambique.” He encouraged soldiers to remain disciplined and vigilant on the last days of the deployment.
Lieutenant General Mojalefa Letsoela, Lesotho Defence Force Chief of Staff (CoS), was in Mozambique last week to, among others, assess the drawdown status of the SADC Mission in Mozambique. The three-star was, Captain Tshepiso Mantjane, Mission Public Information Officer, reports, thanked for guidance given “regarding the process of exiting the mission”.
The extension of the South African deployment is likely to just cover the departure of SANDF troops and equipment, as the SAMIM mission is slated to wrap up in July, when Rwandan troops will essentially take over under a bilateral agreement with Mozambique.
There was, at the time of publication, no indication from either SANDF Directorate Corporate Communication (DCC) or the Joint Operations Division on why the SAMIM deployment has been extended and what it entails. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
25 Apr 24. Joint Statement of the 14th Defense Trilateral Talks. Republic of Korea (ROK) Deputy Minister for National Defense Policy Cho Chang-rae, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner, and Japan Director General for Defense Policy Kano Koji convened the 14th Defense Trilateral Talks virtually on April 24, 2024. The officials exchanged assessments of the security environment on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific, and beyond, and they consulted on concrete ways to deepen ROK-U.S.-Japan trilateral security cooperation.
The three defense officials affirmed that the United States, Japan, and the ROK, guided by the outcomes of the August 2023 Camp David Summit, have significantly strengthened their security cooperation over the past year, particularly through historic collaboration on a real-time DPRK missile warning data sharing mechanism and a multi-year trilateral exercise plan.
The three sides affirmed their enduring commitment to strengthening trilateral cooperation to deter the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) nuclear and missile threats and to promote peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region. They condemned the DPRK’s recent diversification of nuclear delivery systems, tests and launches of multiple ballistic missiles, the launch of what the DPRK purports to be a military reconnaissance satellite using ballistic missile technology, illicit ship-to-ship transfers, and arms shipments with Russia as clear violations of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs).
The officials urged the international community to advance its stated goal of ensuring the DPRK fully complies with its obligations under relevant UNSCRs, and affirmed they will redouble their efforts in support of effective UNSCR implementation following Russia’s veto blocking the renewal of the mandate of the UN Panel of Experts that monitors implementation of sanctions on the DPRK. They urged the DPRK to cease all destabilizing activities immediately. They reaffirmed that a DPRK nuclear test, if conducted, would be met with a strong and resolute response from the international community. They also reiterated that the path to dialogue remains open toward peaceful and diplomatic resolution with the DPRK, and the three officials pledged to continue coordination toward the complete denuclearization of the DPRK in accordance with relevant UNSCRs.
The three sides acknowledged that their enhanced trilateral security cooperation contributes to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and across the Indo-Pacific region. They emphasized the importance of the rule of law and expressed strong opposition to any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion. They shared concerns about actions that are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and stressed the importance of fully respecting freedom of navigation and overflight. Additionally, they recognized that there is no change in their basic positions on Taiwan, and emphasized the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity in the international community.
The officials reaffirmed their commitment to stand with Ukraine against Russia’s illegal, unprovoked, and brutal war of aggression, recognizing that Russia’s actions violate the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty.
The three representatives exchanged views on implementing the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, the ROK Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region, and Japan’s new plan for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” They also reiterated the importance of continuing the momentum of the new era of trilateral security cooperation advanced by the Camp David Summit. They agreed to institutionalize trilateral security cooperation policy dialogues, including the Trilateral Ministerial Meeting (TMM), the Defense Trilateral Talks (DTT), and the Trilateral Chiefs of Defense (Tri-CHOD). They also welcomed progress on establishing an annual, named, multi-domain trilateral exercise.
The United States reaffirmed its ironclad commitment to the defense of the ROK and Japan, emphasizing that this commitment is backed by the full range of U.S. capabilities, including nuclear capabilities.
The officials pledged to continue working closely together to strengthen security cooperation among their three countries, and they agreed to hold the 15th Defense Trilateral Talks later this year in the ROK. (Source: U.S. DoD)
25 Apr 24. Third man detained in bribery case surrounding Russian deputy defence minister. A third man has been detained in a bribery investigation centring on Deputy Russian Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, the Moscow court service said on Thursday. It said Alexander Fomin, the co-founder of a construction company called Olimpsitistroy, was suspected of paying bribes to Ivanov, who was detained on Tuesday, and Sergei Borodin, a close associate of Ivanov who is also in custody. The scandal is the biggest in years to hit the defence ministry, and is seen as a severe blow to Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. The court service said Fomin was suspected of “providing services” to Ivanov, Borodin and others in the form of goods, work and services relating to property renovation.
“Also, Fomin and other persons, acting as an organised group, contributed to Ivanov’s receipt of a particularly large bribe in the form of the illegal provision of property-related services to him,” it said. (Source: Reuters)
18 Apr 24. Canada unveils CAD33.8bn defence budget for 2024–25. The Canadian government released its fiscal year (FY) 2024 defence budget on 16 April. The document projects spending of CAD33.8bn (USD24.6bn) in 2024–25, including adjustments from the Budget 2023 Refocusing Government Spending Exercise and incremental funding in the 2024 budget, although it warns that forecast amounts may change as programmes move through implementation. This is an increase from the forecast CAD29.9bn spending in 2023–24, according to the document. The 2024–25 main estimates produced by the Treasury Board projected defence spending of CAD30.6bn, a small increase from the latest spending estimate for 2023–24, which totalled CAD30.3bn. This is a 14% increase over the initial 2023–24 main estimate of CAD26.5bn, according to Treasury Board figures. Expenditures in 2022–23 totalled CAD26.9bn. (Source: Janes)
23 Apr 24. North Korea-Iran: Diplomatic delegation will drive concerns of enhanced military collaboration. Earlier on 24 April, North Korea dispatched its highest-ranking delegation to Iran since 2019. It is led by North Korean Minister for External Economic Relations Yun Jong Ho. The visit comes amid longstanding suspicions of military collaboration between the two nations, particularly concerning ballistic missile technology transfers. The high-level delegation possibly signals a willingness to strengthen the bilateral relationship (which dates back to the 1980s). The visit aligns with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s broader foreign policy shift (evidenced by his recent engagements with Russia and China), which aims to strengthen North Korea’s position regarding South Korea and the US. The US is concerned that these developments will bolster North Korea’s and Iran’s weapons development through enhanced military co-operation, especially in light of recent reports of military co-operation between North Korea and Russia. However, there is currently no evidence of nuclear technology co-operation. We assess that this remains highly unlikely in the medium-to-long term. The visit will likely lead to heightened regional tensions and increase the likelihood of fresh international sanctions that aim to prevent further advancements in both countries’ arms programmes. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Apr 24. Cash-strapped SANDF should withdraw from international missions and focus on domestic security. Without sufficient funding, South Africa should withdraw its soldiers from foreign deployments and focus on protecting its own air, land and maritime borders. This is according to Kobus Marais, Democratic Alliance Shadow Defence and Military Veterans Minister, who was speaking at a 10 April South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) Western Cape Branch discussion on the mandate of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). Marias was of the opinion that South Africa must withdraw its soldiers from foreign deployments and “protect its own air, land and maritime borders, restructure and rebuild our Defence Force and invest in new defence technologies as a force multiplier, as well as the maintenance, upgrade and replacements of our essential strategic prime mission equipment and technology. I do believe that if you do it correctly, we can do with a smaller Defence Force, but a much better technologically advanced Defence Force.”
He added that, “the availability of a well-planned, funded budget for the military focusing on the correct priorities is essential for the sustainable offensive and defensive capability of our country.” However, at present, the SANDF spends 70% of its budget on salaries, which is against the policy prescript of 40% as there is not enough money to follow the 40:30:30 rule of salaries:operating costs:capital renewal.
Marais emphasised the need for clear criteria guiding military deployments, rooted in national interests and foreign policy objectives. “Any action by our military…must be considered in terms of the mandate from the Constitution.”
Moreover, Marais underscored the impact of political transitions on defence policy, noting shifts in strategic priorities under different presidential administrations. He highlighted the transition from a strategy by design in the 1990s to a strategy by default in recent years, reflecting the broader challenges facing South Africa’s security landscape.
The military should be viewed as an instrument supporting foreign policy and trade interests, while also addressing serious threats to national security. However, deployments that do not clearly align with these priorities risk overextending limited resources and endangering soldiers, Marais said.
Following the deaths of two South African soldiers in an M23 rebel mortar attack in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in February, Marais said, “the reality is that the SANDF is currently unable to meet the requirements of foreign deployment because of its deteriorated state of combat readiness,” with troops in the DRC lacking air support and logistics. The human cost of an under-resourced military means soldiers deployed on missions without clear objectives or proper support face undue risk. The declining morale and capabilities of the SANDF can also have a negative impact on national security, he told the SAIIA audience. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
23 Apr 24. UAE seeks closer air force ties with China as leaders meet in Beijing. The chief of joint operations for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Armed Forces has met with the head of China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) as the two countries look to promote closer co-operation between their respective air forces. The UAE Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced the meeting on 23 April, saying that on the same day Major General Saleh Mohammed bin Mejren Al Ameri, commander of Joint Operations, had met with Lieutenant General Chang Dingqiu, commander of the PLAAF, at the headquarters of the Chinese MoD in Beijing. “During the meeting, a number of topics related to the fields of joint military co-operation and work between the two countries and ways to support and develop them were discussed. The meeting was attended by a number of senior officers and officials of the MoDs of the two countries,” the UAE MoD said. (Source: Janes)
24 Apr 24. Russian deputy defence minister detained on bribe allegations, officials say. A Russian deputy defence minister in charge of military construction has been detained on Tuesday on suspicion of “large-scale” bribe-taking, in one of the highest-profile corruption cases since Moscow launched its war in Ukraine. A brief statement by the Investigative Committee, Russia’s top investigative body, said late on Tuesday that Timur Ivanov had been taken into custody and an investigation into his case was proceeding. The statute that the investigators cited for the detention of Ivanov, who has been in his job for eight years, is for accepting bribes “on a particularly large scale”. In 2022, Russia’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, headed by the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, alleged that Ivanov and his family led a lavish lifestyle filled with spending on real estate, luxurious trips and designer clothing. Russian media reported that Ivanov was in charge, among other things, of large construction projects rebuilding the eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which was heavily bombarded and taken by Russia as part of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, quoted by Russian news agencies, said a report on Ivanov’s detention had been presented to President Vladimir Putin. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had been informed in advance of his detention, he said. The daily Izvestia reported on Wednesday, citing sources, that searches were conducted late on Tuesday at some of Ivanov’s properties. Russian news reports said that Ivanov, if convicted, could face up to 15 years in prison. Forbes magazine listed Ivanov, an expert in cybernetics and the nuclear industry, as one of the wealthiest men in Russia’s security structures. News outlet RBK posted a picture of him attending a meeting of ministerial officials earlier on Tuesday chaired by Shoigu. Russian news reports said Ivanov was likely the most senior Russian official to face such charges since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked in companies dealing with fuel and energy and in the Moscow regional government before joining the defence ministry in 2010. He became a deputy minister in 2016. (Source: Reuters)
23 Apr 24. Philippines: Security forces operations continue to put pressure on militants in Mindanao. On 22 April, the Philippine authorities claimed that they had killed 12 insurgents in an hours-long clash in the town of Datu Saudi Ampatun (Magiuindanao del Sur province) on the southern island of Mindanao. Mohiden Animbang (aka Kagi Karialan), leader of the Karialan Faction of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) militant group, was among those killed. A spokesperson for BIFF confirmed the death of the faction’s leader and claimed the fighting would not stop. BIFF actively targets security forces and police in the Bangsamoro region of Mindanao. However, in recent years, security operations and defections have led to a reduction in its capacity, with the death of the leader of one of BIFF’s main factions posing a further setback for the group.(Source: Sibylline)
22 Apr 24. Niger: Agreed US withdrawal will likely drive expansion of jihadist attacks. On 19 April, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell reportedly agreed to the orderly withdrawal of US troops from Niger in a meeting with Nigerien Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine. While the withdrawal will likely take several months, during which time further protests against the US are possible, the move will ensure the closure of Air Base 201 in Agadez (Agadez region). The base was a key site for both manned and unmanned surveillance flights and provided the US with a strike capacity to support counter-insurgency operations. The development comes just over a week after military instructors from Russia’s Africa Corps arrived in Niger. Russia is unlikely to replicate the capabilities provided by Washington DC’s 1,000-strong military presence and its USD 100 m drone base. We assess that the latest development will sustain the expansion of jihadists and other armed groups throughout the Sahel region, driving the risk of conflict spilling over into coastal West African states and elevating disruption to supply chains and threats to staff in border regions. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Apr 24. Myanmar-Thailand: Continued fighting over border town will drive security risks in coming days. On 21 April, Thailand’s foreign ministry claimed that around 3,000 people fled to Mae Sot district (Tak province, Thailand) from Myawaddy (Myanmar) following escalating violence between the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), allied civilian militia groups and Myanmar’s military junta. These various forces are fighting over Myawaddy, a major trading town situated along the border with Thailand. It fell largely under KNLA control earlier this month. However, Myanmar’s junta aims to retake the town through Operation Aung Zeya. As part of the operation, the junta conducted airstrikes in the area over the weekend. We assess that security risks near the border will remain elevated, as fighting will likely continue in the coming days. In response, Thailand is preparing to receive more refugees; it is also sending reinforcements to the border. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has also formed a committee to monitor the situation. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Apr 24. Maldives: Presidential party’s electoral victory will boost stability, herald closer ties with China. Earlier on 22 April, the preliminary results of the Maldivian legislative election showed that the ruling People’s National Congress (PNC), led by President Mohamed Muizzu, won 68 of 93 seats in the People’s Majlis (the country’s unicameral legislature). While the full results are expected to be announced later on 22 April, the PNC is set to gain more than two-thirds of the seats, enough for a supermajority. The opposition Maldivian Democratic Party gained ten seats, despite holding a majority before the 21 April polls. The turnout was 59.74%, compared with 81% in 2019, indicating significantly greater voter apathy. The new assembly will take office in early May. While the result will substantially strengthen Muizzu’s grip on power, it is also seemingly an endorsement of Muizzu’s policy of shifting Malé’s geopolitical alignment from India to China. Since coming to power in 2023, Muizzu has signed security pacts with China and ordered Indian military personnel to leave the country. We assess that the Maldives will likely deepen economic and defence co-operation with China in the coming years; this would highly likely lead to greater Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Apr 24. Military spending around the world rose almost 7 per cent to a record $2.4tn last year, the steepest annual increase in 15 years, according to research. Russia’s war in Ukraine was the main driver of European defence spending, but for the first time since 2009, military expenditure also increased in the other four main geographical regions, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a leading think-tank, said Monday. Escalating geopolitical tensions in Asia and the Middle East helped drive the increase in global defence spending to 2.3 per cent of global economic output, Sipri said in its latest annual survey of global defence spending. Among the biggest national increases was a 24 per cent rise in Russian defence spending to an estimated $109bn. Although Sipri cautioned that this figure underestimated the true amount, it represents a 57 per cent increase since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. It also accounts for 16 per cent of total state spending and is equivalent to 6 per cent of Russia’s gross domestic product. By comparison, Ukrainian defence spending rose 51 per cent to $65bn, the eighth highest level in the world. However, even after adding western military aid, defence spending on Ukraine was still 9 per cent short of Russian levels last year — and that was when western military aid to Ukraine was at its highest, Sipri data showed. The US House of Representatives passed a $60bn military aid package for Ukraine late on Saturday after months of delay had left Kyiv short of critical weaponry in the face of Russian advances. Overall, European defence spending rose 16 per cent to $588bn as “the war in Ukraine . . . fundamentally changed the security outlook”, said Sipri researcher Lorenzo Scarazzato. Sipri’s figures are expressed in real terms in constant 2022 prices, which take into account inflation. The US remained far and away the world’s biggest military spender, with its defence budget rising more than 2 per cent last year to $916bn, equivalent to 37 per cent of the global total. China, the world’s second-largest defence spender, allocated an estimated $296bn to its military in 2023, an annual increase of 6 per cent and China’s 29th consecutive year-on-year rise in military expenditure. Several of China’s neighbours linked their own increases to China’s rising military might. Japan’s defence spending rose 11 per cent to $50bn, while Taiwan’s defence spending rose 11 per cent to $17bn. Defence spending in India, which has the world’s fourth-biggest military budget, rose 4 per cent to $84bn. Middle East defence spending rose 9 per cent to $200bn — the highest annual growth rate in the region for a decade — driven by increased spending in Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel. Israeli spending increased 24 per cent, rising from an average of $1.8bn per month before Hamas launched its assault on Israel in October last year to $4.7bn in December, said Sipri. Iran remained the fourth-largest military spender in the region, with 37 per cent of its estimated $10bn defence budget now allocated to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compared with 27 per cent in 2019. Military spending also rose in certain Latin American countries, such as the Dominican Republic, as governments there reacted to the rising might of criminal gangs. “States are prioritising military strength but they risk an action-reaction spiral in the increasingly volatile geopolitical and security landscape,” said Nan Tian, senior researcher at Sipri. (Source: FT.com)
23 Apr 24. Iran Unveils Upgraded Bavar-373 Air Defense System. On April 17, during a national military parade, Iran revealed an upgraded version of its domestically-produced Bavar-373 long-range air defense system. Mounted on a Belarusian-made MZKT-791300 8×8 truck chassis, this latest iteration represents a notable advancement in Iran’s defense capabilities. The Bavar-373, initially introduced to the Iranian armed forces in 2019, has been compared to Russia’s S-300 and the U.S. Patriot systems in terms of its operational capabilities. The system is designed to counter stealth aircraft, including fifth-generation fighter jets like the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, which are known for their radar-evading features. Iranian officials claim the updated Bavar-373 now possesses enhanced target detection and tracking capabilities, reportedly able to identify up to 100 aerial targets simultaneously and engage multiple threats with its Sayyad-4B missiles. The system’s range is said to exceed 186 miles, with an altitude reach of 75 miles, positioning it as a formidable asset in Iran’s air defense strategy. Despite the impressive claims by Iranian officials, experts caution that only real-world combat conditions can validate such assertions. The system’s stated capabilities to detect and engage advanced stealth aircraft and manage multiple aerial threats simultaneously are promising on paper. However, without exposure to actual battle conditions where these features can be tested against sophisticated enemy tactics and electronic countermeasures, the true effectiveness of the Bavar-373 remains speculative. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
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