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05 Apr 24. U.S., Chinese Military Officials Resume Talks on Operational Safety. Military officials from the U.S. and China met this week for working-level talks focused on ensuring safe and professional air and naval interactions between their forces.
The two-day discussions, held in Honolulu, marked the resumption of the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement Working Group, a series of annual operational safety dialogues. The MMCA dialogues were established more than two decades ago; they were last held in December 2021.
This year’s discussions included representatives from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, U.S. Pacific Fleet and U.S. Pacific Air Forces, who met with their counterparts from China’s People’s Liberation Army.
The head of the U.S. delegation, Army Col. Ian Francis, Indo-Pacom’s director of Northeast Asia policy, said the delegation is encouraged by representatives from China’s army honoring their commitment to attend the talks. He said he looks forward to future discussions aimed at safeguarding forces operating in the region.
“The Military Maritime Consultative Agreement is U.S. Indo-Pacom’s primary means to directly discuss air and maritime operational safety with the PLA,” Francis said. “The United States will continue to operate safely and professionally in the Indo-Pacific wherever international law allows, and we take this responsibility seriously.
“Open, direct and clear communications with the PLA and with all other military forces in the region is of utmost importance to avoid accidents and miscommunication,” he said.
During this year’s MMCA, officials from both countries reviewed specific instances of safety-related events in the region that have occurred in recent years. The officials also discussed sustaining maritime and aviation operational safety and professionalism.
President Joe Biden secured China’s agreement to return to military-to-military talks in November after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Woodside, California.
That meeting was quickly followed by talks between Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., and his Chinese military counterpart, People’s Liberation Army Gen. Liu Zhenli, in December.
In January, senior U.S. and Chinese military officials resumed the U.S.-China Defense Policy Coordination Talks at the Pentagon. The high-level talks were last held in September 2021.
According to the most recent China Military Power Report, the U.S. has documented more than 180 coercive and risky air intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the region between 2021 and 2023.
That is more risky intercepts in the past two years than in the past decade, according to the report.
In previewing this week’s military-to-military talks, defense officials noted a decrease in China’s unsafe behavior toward U.S. maritime and air operators in the region.
“We’ve observed a reduction in unsafe behavior between us and PLA aircraft and vessels over the last several months,” a senior military official said. “So, we’re encouraged by that, and we’re happy that we have this opportunity with the MMCA to talk about ways to make sure that trend continues in the right direction.”
However, U.S. officials noted they maintain concerns over China’s continued unsafe behavior toward non-U.S. maritime operations in the region.
“In recent months, we do continue to see the PRC acting very dangerously and unlawfully against routine maritime operations the Philippines was conducting in the South China Sea,” a senior defense official said. “We’ll continue to press on those issues.”
Biden and Xi met again this week for a phone discussion featuring “candid and constructive discussion on a range of bilateral, regional and global issues, including areas of cooperation and areas of difference,” according to a White House summary of the call.
During the discussion, Biden emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. He also raised concerns over China’s support of Russia’s defense industrial base.
The two leaders “welcomed ongoing efforts to maintain open channels of communication and responsibly manage the relationship” through diplomatic channels and working-level dialogue, according to the summary of their talk. (Source: U.S. DoD)
05 Apr 24. Australian companies increasingly look to US following AUKUS pact. The nuclear submarine collaboration between Australia, the U.K. and the U.S., better known as AUKUS, is opening new doors for Australian defense companies to set up shop in the U.S, executives say.
In at least one case, an Australian company has even opened up a location inside the gates of a U.S. Army arsenal.
Indeed, Australian defense executives say the AUKUS agreement not only offers the opportunity to expand into the world’s largest defense market, but also a chance to transfer those benefits back to a growing Australian defense industry ready to help if a large-scale conflict breaks out in the Indo-Pacific region.
“All of a sudden America and Australia’s industrial bases naturally just need to be linked,” Rob Nioa, chief executive of Australian munitions company Nioa Group, told Defense News. “Where we ultimately want to be is a company operating in the U.S. munitions base with forward-deployed, production-ready capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region.”
The AUKUS collaboration, unveiled in September 2021, is organized into two pillars of effort. The first focuses on nuclear-powered submarines; the second covers critical technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hypersonics and autonomy.
Already, Australia has received $1.6 billion in U.S. defense contracts within the context of AUKUS, and Australia is “significantly investing in the United States to support the delivery of these contracts,” Paul Myler, deputy head of mission at the Australian Embassy in the U.S., said during an April 5 Center for Strategic and International Studies event.
The AUKUS pact “is not about making it easier for Australia to buy U.S. kit,” he added. “If we only look at it through a purchase-sale transaction lens, we have failed. This is a radical reimagination.”
But barriers to working together remain, Cynthia Cook, CSIS’ Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group director, told Defense News.
“Some of these relate to challenges that all companies have when marketing to the government, which is getting insight into government requirements and matching their products to a government demand,” she said. “Companies in partner nations can have challenges seeing tenders. And there is the simple challenge of the ‘tyranny of distance’ and the different time zones.”
Building a U.S. footprint
Nioa’s father founded Nioa Group in 1973 out of the back of a gas station in Queensland as a regional sporting firearms shop.
Over the years, the company expanded its customers to law enforcement and defense and its focus to munitions production. The company today provides all of the Australian Army’s artillery ammunition.
Nioa Group also has a business in New Zealand and a joint venture with Germany’s Rheinmetall called Rheinmetall Nioa Munitions, which recently established a munitions shell forging factory in Australia to supply the German military.
Roughly a year ago, the company established the Australian Missile Corp. under a contract with the Australian government to develop a domestic guided weapons enterprise.
Nioa Group has partnerships with some U.S. companies like Northrop Grumman and, in 2023, it purchased Murfreesboro, Tennessee-based Barrett Firearms, which produces the only shoulder-fired 50-caliber gun, the primary anti-personnel sniper rifle used by the U.S. Army and Special Operations Command.
Now, Nioa Group has signed a long-term lease at Picatinny Arsenal, New Jersey, home to the U.S. military’s guns and ammunition development, making it the first foreign company with a footprint on Picatinny’s property. The company took up its tenancy in late November 2023 to collaborate on a variety of armaments supply needs.
“We have existing work that would see us wanting to be inside the wire working with them,” Nioa said.
And Nioa will have the chance to work more with other U.S. companies based there, including Northrop, General Dynamics, Winchester and BAE Systems. Nioa recently named Dan Olson, formerly Northrop Grumman’s weapons systems division vice president, a Nioa advisory board member focused on developing its U.S. strategy.
“Aspirationally, we want to grow in the U.S. market,” Nioa said. “What we now need to do is develop an ammunition footprint in the U.S., and that path is not 100% clear to us, but it will likely come out of us understanding the supply chain constraints in the U.S. and where the U.S. government needs more production for the allied effort.”
Nioa Group is interested in acquiring companies already in the supply chain, he added, and will seek to work with or acquire components that would be needed in Australia as well, Nioa said, which could lead to easier co-production.
While AUKUS is making it easier to establish direct relationships with the U.S. government and partner more deeply with U.S. industry, he said, it’s still too early to see technology being transferred.
“People are a little nervous that actually when it comes time for transferring missile technology or something that despite it being agreed to at a policy level, actually the documents and authorities which will allow the physical transfer, they think is still going to be entrenched,” he said. “There’s a lot of inertia around existing systems.”
Another Australian company is taking a similar approach in the U.S., seeking to expand the technology development work it is doing in Australia in the U.S. and with U.S. partners.
EOS Defence Systems opted to establish a production footprint in Huntsville, Alabama, in 2018 “in response to an ever-increasing U.S. military requirement for [remote weapon station] systems,” according to a company announcement at the time.
The company is perhaps best known for its common remote weapons stations and previously supplied some to the U.S. military in the 1980s. It lost the latest contract to Norwegian company Kongsberg, according to EOS chief executive Andreas Schwer, but the company has three other business sectors it hopes to grow in the U.S.
EOS has been working on lower kilowatt directed energy solutions that could be considered for integration on smaller systems like armored vehicles. He said the company is close to signing two contracts for lasers with international customers and then plans to migrate that technology to the U.S.
EOS also has developed over the last 20 years a ground-based laser that can blind satellites. The company is now developing capability to also disable satellites’ sensors and ultimately the satellite itself. “We see huge export potential,” he said.
AUKUS is allowing conversations and collaboration that would have been very difficult beforehand and giving the company the ability to participate in classified programs, Schwer said.
“AUKUS will make our life easier in terms of exchange of product data or product information, software codes, but also even the hardware to push back and forth, demonstrators, prototypes and stuff like that,” Schwer said. “We have more commercial reason to do more in the U.S.”
Like Nioa Group, EOS already has some partnerships with U.S. companies like Northrop Grumman, but the company is also looking for acquisition opportunities and partnerships, Schwer said.
“We are ready to bring laser technology to the U.S. or our satellite terminals, maybe even under another brand name,” he suggested. “We are currently checking all opportunities before we undertake a formal decision.”
Small business breakthrough
Smaller and newer Australian companies are also evaluating opportunities in the U.S.
3ME Technologies, an Australian company specializing in electrification, is now making a more global push, but hopes to focus on the AUKUS countries, according to chief executive Justin Bain.
The company has converted the Australian Defence Force’s Bushmaster vehicle into a hybrid-electric variant and has worked on projects delivering the battery system and power solutions for counter-drone and directed energy systems. The company particularly specializes in battery safety, critical both in the mining industry and the defense industry, Bain said.
3ME has now begun preliminary discussions with a number of U.S. prime contractors, which could help it grow in the U.S. The firm plans to make its U.S. trade show debut at Sea Air Space this month.
Enabling 3ME’s conversations with U.S. primes is an Australian government program called Going Global, which assists companies that want to link up with U.S. defense prime contractors.
Bain said he sees a strong role for the company potentially establishing a robust high-end battery and electrification supply chain in the Indo-Pacific as the U.S. considers logistics operations in a contested environment in the priority theater.
“The key theme we’re getting out of the U.S. is we need to shore up supply chain in INDOPACOM. We need more support in INDOPACOM. It’s the fact that we exist, we’re here in Australia with the experience and that’s why we want to focus in this area,” Bain said.
Ellen Lord, who served as the Pentagon’s acquisition chief during the Trump administration, said during the CSIS event in April, that working with small Australian companies “is where the real challenge is.”
“What we’re missing is the engagement strategy to bring all these small companies together to understand the art of the possible, to have the contracting officers know what to do with it, because we don’t always do a great job in the Department of Defense in terms of motivating and incentivizing individuals to lean forward and do something differently,” she said.
Hugh Jeffrey, the Australian Department of Defence’s deputy secretary of strategy, policy, and industry, said during a March 5 CSIS event in Canberra, Australia there’s a long history of trying to link the Australian and U.S. defense-industrial bases.
There has been “only limited success,” Jeffrey said, but said he’s optimistic this time will be different.
Already, he noted, the U.S. Congress made significant export control reforms in the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which will enable faster sharing of defense industrial resources with Australia and the U.K. and “most crucially” establish a national exemption for AUKUS countries from some U.S. export control licensing requirements. The U.S. State Department still needs to grant the exemption, contingent on Australia and Britain enhancing their own export control laws.
“My view is that the consensus has emerged on both sides of the Pacific on this issue, that we do need to change things up and that’s why it’s so exciting to see the US and Australia commit to a generational shift in mindset around industrial base integration,” he said. (Source: Defense News)
05 Apr 24. Myanmar: Conflict intensifies as anti-junta forces mount drone attacks in Naypyidaw. On 4 April, the shadow National Unity Government (NUG), which was formed to oppose the junta following the 2021 coup, claimed mass drone attacks against junta targets in the capital Naypyidaw. It stated that its armed wings, the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) and the Shar Htoo Waw’s Kloud Drone Team, deployed 29 drones armed with explosives at 0900hrs (local time) against the military’s headquarters and the Aye Lar military airbase next to Naypyidaw International Airport (NYT). The residence of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing was also targeted (according to local reports). However, the junta claimed that it intercepted 13 drones headed for the airport and Zayarthiri township, and that there were no casualties. NYT was temporarily closed following the attack. There are currently no details of any damage. In recent months, anti-junta and ethnic-armed groups have gained territory, particularly in the north-east, though the junta’s centre of power in Naypyidaw was hitherto mostly exempt from the conflict. We assess that further drone attack attempts against junta targets in Naypyidaw are likely in the coming months. However, resistance forces are unlikely to be able to sustain pressure on the capital at this point, as security will be bolstered in the city. (Source: Sibylline)
05 Apr 24. Dominican Republic-Haiti: Military border reinforcements underscore sustained security risks. On 4 April, Dominican Foreign Minister Roberto Alvarez announced that around 10,000 military personnel were deployed to the Dominican Republic-Haiti border. The deployment of personnel along the 250-mile (400km) border was triggered by sustained gang violence in Haiti and persistent conflict in its capital Port-au-Prince. Haiti’s transitional government has yet to be installed, causing some members of the Haitian National Police and civil society groups to call for an alternate transition method. In the short-to-medium term, it remains highly likely that the Dominican Republic will maintain this military presence so as to reinforce its border, elevating further risks to cross-border movement. In the short-to-medium term, we assess that gang activity in Haiti will highly likely perpetuate the closure of key maritime ports in Port-au-Prince. Our latest assessment indicates that the Haitian transition council will likely face significant pushback from gangs, sustaining violence and bystander risks. (Source: Sibylline)
05 Apr 24. Israeli military fires two senior officers as report finds strike on aid workers was in ‘serious violation of commands.’
The IDF fired two senior officers and reprimanded a top commander as it admitted a catalog of failures in a drone strike on an aid convoy in Gaza, including that it killed aid workers who had survived an initial attack.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Friday that “those who approved the strike were convinced that they were targeting armed Hamas operatives,” calling the attack “a grave mistake stemming from a serious failure due to a mistaken identification.”
It said the strike was carried out in “serious violation of the commands and IDF Standard Operating Procedures,” and dismissed a major and a colonel in reserve. Three other IDF officials were formally reprimanded: the commanders of the brigade and division involved, and the commander of the Southern Command, who bore “overall responsibility.”
Seven aid workers – three Britons, a Palestinian, a US-Canadian dual citizen, an Australian and a Pole – were killed in Monday’s strikes on cars operated by the World Central Kitchen (WCK), setting off fury in those countries.
The IDF detailed in its preliminary findings a series of botched assessments and decision-making failures that led to the targeted strikes on three cars carrying innocent aid workers.
Its forces “identified a gunman on one of the aid trucks, following which they identified an additional gunman,” the IDF said, as the trucks transported food to a warehouse in Gaza. It did not provide any more details about that claim.
Later, as three WCK vehicles left the warehouse, a commander “mistakenly assumed that the gunmen were located inside the accompanying vehicles and that these were Hamas terrorists,” the report said.
The IDF officers involved “misidentified something slung over one of the passenger’s shoulders as a weapon,” but forces now believe it was a bag, an IDF spokesperson told CNN Friday.
The spokesperson also said that Israel’s surveillance drones “could not see the WCK logo on the vehicles at night.”
Some of the WCK workers in the first car survived the initial strike and fled to the next car in the convoy, the spokesperson added, only for that vehicle to also be targeted.
WCK and the heads of many Western nations have called for an independent, third party investigation into the strikes, but Israel has committed only to the internal inquiry released Friday. (Source: CNN)
05 Apr 24. Myanmar’s Opposition Executes Drone Strikes on Military Capital. Opponents of Myanmar’s ruling military junta executed drone attacks on key military installations in the capital, Naypyidaw. The National Unity Government (NUG), an opposition group formed in the aftermath of the 2021 military coup, announced that it had targeted the military headquarters and Alar Air Base with drone strikes. The NUG’s statement mentioned preliminary reports of casualties, although these claims could not be independently verified. In response, the military reported shooting down seven drones. The backdrop to these drone attacks is a country deeply embroiled in conflict, with the military fighting against a myriad of opponents, including ethnic armed groups and newly formed people’s defense forces aligned with the NUG. The military has suffered significant battlefield losses, contributing to low morale among its ranks and prompting a wave of surrenders by soldiers. The NUG, representing the ousted civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi, has stepped up its military efforts against the junta, utilizing drones as a cost-effective means of striking against the better-armed military, which has been accused of indiscriminate bombings against civilians. Naypyidaw, the administrative capital established by the military, has so far been insulated from the level of conflict seen in other parts of the country but has now emerged as a direct target of opposition forces. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
05 Apr 24. JOINT STATEMENT: Australia – Japan – Philippines – United States Maritime Cooperative Activity. Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States uphold the right to freedom of navigation and overflight, and respect for maritime rights under international law, reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Demonstrating our collective commitment to strengthen regional and international cooperation in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific, our combined defense/armed forces will conduct a Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone on April 7, 2024.
The MCA will be conducted by naval/maritime and air force units in a manner that is consistent with international law as well as domestic laws and rules of respective nations, and with due regard to the safety of navigation and the rights and interests of other States. It will also demonstrate professional interactions among naval/maritime and air forces. Ultimately, the MCA will strengthen the interoperability of our defense/armed forces doctrines, tactics, techniques, and procedures.
“We stand with all nations in safeguarding the international order based on the rule of law that is the foundation for a peaceful and stable Indo-Pacific region. Our four nations reaffirm the position regarding the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award as a final and legally binding decision on the parties to the dispute.” The Honourable Richard Marles MP, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, Australia:
“Australia is committed to working with partners to maintain the global rules-based order. We recognise that respect for national sovereignty and agreed rules and norms based on international law underpin the stability of our region. Australia has consistently emphasised the importance for all states to be able to exercise rights and freedoms, including freedom of navigation, in a manner consistent with international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Maritime Cooperative Activity with the Philippines, Japan and the United States demonstrates our firm commitment to work together to maintain a peaceful, stable and prosperous region.” His Excellency KIHARA, Minoru, Minister of Defense, Japan:
“Guided by the vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), Japan has the vital importance of striving to realize a free and open international order based on the rule of law and securing regional peace and stability in cooperation with its ally, like-minded countries and others. Japan believes that the issue concerning the South China Sea is directly related to the peace and stability of the region and is a legitimate concern of the international community including Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and the United States, and thus Japan opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo by force, such attempts as well as any actions that increase tensions in the South China Sea.” The Honorable Gilberto C. Teodoro Jr., Secretary of National Defense, Philippines:
“The Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) that we are implementing includes strengthening and deepening cooperation and interoperability with all nations, big and small, to maintain regional peace and stability as well as good order at sea based on international law, principally UNCLOS. The series of bilateral and multilateral MCA is a step in building our country’s capacity for individual and collective self-defense. This first in a series of activities demonstrates the enduring friendship and partnership among the peace-loving peoples of the Philippines, United States, Australia, and Japan.” The Honorable Lloyd J. Austin III, Secretary of Defense, United States:
“Every country should be free to conduct lawful air and maritime operations. These activities with our allies Australia, Japan, and the Philippines underscore our shared commitment to ensuring that all countries are free to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows. Our operations together support peace and stability at the heart of our shared vision for a free and open region.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
04 Apr 24. China-Myanmar: PLA live-fire exercises underscore Beijing’s concerns about security at border. Earlier on 4 April, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced that it would ‘further strengthen’ its patrols on the border with Myanmar and stay on high alert. This comes after the PLA carried out live-fire drills in Yunnan province earlier this week, which it stated was to ‘safeguard border stability’ and prepare for ‘various emergencies’. The PLA last carried out live-fire exercises there in November 2023. Notably these exercises took place weeks after an alliance of three anti-junta armed groups began a major offensive in Shan state (Myanmar), which borders China. Prior to this, such exercises had not taken place since 2017. The recent exercises and the PLA announcement today both highlight growing concerns about the risk Myanmar’s civil conflict poses to cross-border security and trade. We assess that the PLA will likely increase its military posture in Yunnan over the coming months to deter the conflict from spilling over the border. However, the likelihood of China militarily intervening in the ongoing conflict in Myanmar remains low. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Apr 24. Indian defence exports grow strongly, MoD says. Indian defence exports reached INR210.83bn (USD2.5bn) in fiscal year (FY) 2023–24, an annual increase of 32%, the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said. The MoD said in a statement on 1 April that private sector firms contributed to 60% of exports in 2023–24, with state-owned defence public sector undertakings (DPSUs) accounting for the remainder. It added, “The figures indicate that defence exports have grown 31 times in the last 10 years as compared to FY 2013–14.” The MoD also pointed to an increase in authorisations issued to Indian defence exporters. “From 1,414 export authorisations in FY 2022–23, the number jumped to 1,507 in FY 2023–24,” the MoD said. According to the MoD, Indian defence exports in the decades 2004–05 to 2013–14 and 2014–15 to 2023–24 increased by nearly 21 times. “Total defence exports during 2004–05 to 2013–14 were INR43.12bn, which has gone up to INR883.19bn in the period from 2014–15 to 2023–24.” (Source: Janes)
03 Apr 24. China-US: High-level diplomatic engagements indicate willingness to manage regional tensions. On 2 April, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping conducted their first one-on-one telephone conversation since last November’s in person meeting in California. The conversation reportedly touched on US technology export controls, and concerns over data security risks posed by Tiktok, the Chinese-owned social media platform. This comes after an announcement in March by President Biden that he would sign legislation cracking down on the app if it is approved by the Senate. Despite a general stabilisation of US-China relations since the summer of 2023 with clear efforts being made to re-open communication channels, significant differences remain. These have been fueled by trade tensions, concerns over China’s support for Russia and navigation freedom in the South China Sea, a region where China and the Philippines have repeatedly clashed over territorial disputes. During the call, the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty came into particular focus as China warned against the US supporting Taiwanese independence, highlighting it as a ‘red line’. Further diplomatic engagements are expected to follow this call, including a visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China. Additionally, maritime discussions between US and Chinese military officials are set to occur in Honolulu, highlighting both sides’ willingness to manage bilateral tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Apr 24. Russia’s war economy continues to mobilise further in 2024. GlobalData intelligence indicates Russia’s aim of spending 6% GDP on defence after a 30% fiscal spending increase on the Armed Forces.
In its new Macroeconomic Outlook Report on Russia, released on 2 April 2024, GlobalData intelligence anticipates Russia’s expanding war economy to double down on its so-called ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine.
In November 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a significant rise in military spending, with draft budget plans earmarking about 30% of fiscal expenditure for the armed forces in 2024.
The country aims to substantially boost defence in 2025 as well, with plans for an increase to 6% of GDP from 3.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021.
“This represents a record increase,” GlobalData suggests, as the defence budget inflates to Rbs36.6trn ($432.4bn) from $43.1bn in 2022. “The allocation signals a notable surge in defence investment, with spending on defence and security combined projected to make up around 40% of the total budget expenditure in 2024.”
In addition, GlobalData indicated that the unemployment rate in Russia declined to 2.9% in January 2024, compared to 3.6% the previous year. This decline is primarily attributed to a shortage of skilled workers, resulting from emigration and military mobilisation related to the conflict in Ukraine.
The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 139,000 from the previous month to reach a record low of 2.2m. GlobalData forecasts the unemployment rate of Russia to decrease to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.35% in 2023
Avdivvka and the Black Sea
Since Russia’s five-month-long offensive to capture Avdivvka in the eastern Donetsk region succeeded earlier this year, the effort demonstrated localised Russian aerial superiority.
This would likely be the first time this has happened in the war in Ukraine, a conflict marked by Mutual Air Denial, where neither side’s air forces have been able to operate outside of territory supported by ground troops. Government spending may well be allocated to expand on this breakthrough in the skies.
However, Russia’s military budget will also need to shore up the Navy’s problems in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels have destroyed a significant percetage of its Fleet.
Russia has since withdrawn at least ten Black Sea Fleet vessels from Sevastopol port in the annexed territory of Crimea following a succession of Ukrainian missile strikes. (Source: army-technology.com)
03 Apr 24. North Korea aims to switch to solid-fuel missiles for faster launches.
- Summary
- Tuesday’s launch condemned by Japan, S. Korea and U.S.
- Missile shows superiority of North’s defence tech, leader says
- Implications for stocks of liquid-fuel weapons seen unclear
North Korea successfully test-fired a new hypersonic missile, state news agency KCNA said on Wednesday, the latest step in a plan its leader Kim Jong Un described as aimed at using solid fuel to power its entire range of missiles.
The North is developing missiles and nuclear weapons undeterred by sanctions in the wake of U.N. Security Council bans, while analysts say solid-fuel missiles can be faster to deploy than liquid-fuel variants.
It drew swift condemnation from neighbours South Korea and Japan, as well as the United States for firing the intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) into the sea on Tuesday.
Kim oversaw the launch of the new Hwasong-16B missile, KCNA said, calling it a strategic weapon showcasing the “absolute superiority” of the North’s defence technology.
It perfects the North’s project for “putting all the tactical, operational and strategic missiles with various ranges on solid-fuelled, warhead-controlled and nuclear warhead-carrying basis,” Kim said, according to KCNA.
That would give North Korea the capacity for “rapidly, accurately and powerfully striking any target in the enemy side worldwide,” Kim said.
Analysts said it was unclear if the North would exclusively use solid-fuel missiles in future, and what the switch would mean for its arsenal of liquid-fuel weapons, such as its largest Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
North Korea may heavily favour solid-fuel systems where possible, but actually phasing out liquid-fuel weapons is likely to play out over years, said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“There are obvious strategic advantages to an all-solid-fuel force for them in the form of greater promptness, responsiveness, and survivability,” he added.
North Korea would need to have high confidence in its production capabilities to allow solid-fuel missiles to sit for a number of years, during which they may develop imperfections that lead to in-flight failures, Panda added.
“India and other countries have had problems with this sort of thing with solid-fuel missiles,” he said. “Liquid-fuel missiles, despite their strategic disadvantages, don’t face this particular long-term handling problem.”
A move away from liquid fuel would be surprising, given recent state media coverage of such weapons, but would make sense if North Korea wants an extremely responsive missile force, said Decker Eveleth of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California.
“Solid-fuel missiles are much, much faster to get off the ground in an emergency,” he said in a post on X.
Such a shift could also see North Korea place some ICBMs in silos, in addition to the mobile launch vehicles it has exclusively used so far, Eveleth added.
North Korea’s pursuit of hypersonic vehicles helps its broader effort to field warheads tougher to intercept.
Warheads typically launched by such missiles travel at more than five times the speed of sound or about 6,200 kph (3,850 mph), often manoeuvring at relatively low altitudes.
That manoeuvrability, not speed, is the most attractive feature of such weapons, analysts say, as the latter can sometimes be matched or exceeded by traditional ballistic missile warheads.
Tuesday’s launch, which followed a ground test late in March of a solid-fuel engine for a new type of intermediate-range hypersonic missile, was also condemned by Britain, which said it breached UN Security Council resolutions. (Source: Reuters)
02 Apr 24. Somalia: Puntland’s withdrawal from federation will likely drive attacks, piracy threats. On 31 March, the semi-autonomous state of Puntland announced its withdrawal from the Somali federation after the federal parliament approved several constitutional changes, including the introduction of direct presidential elections and the expansion of presidential powers. This does not mark a definitive split. Officials from Puntland announced that the state will only govern as an independent entity until a constitution agreed by all stakeholders (including Puntland) is passed by referendum. From a local governance perspective, the announcement will likely have limited immediate implications, as many structures were already highly devolved. However, there is a risk of a prolonged split between Puntland and the federal authorities, as the region has repeatedly refused to engage in processes for constitutional reform. This refusal to co-operate with the federal government has already prompted international donors to cut project financing for Puntland, likely indicating further reductions in international financial support following the announcement. We assess that this will drive security challenges, raising the threat of piracy emanating from Puntland, as well as the likelihood of attacks by Islamic State (IS) in northern Somalia. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Apr 24. North Korea: Missile fired into East China Sea highlights continued threat posed by Russian ties. Earlier on 2 April, North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) into the East China Sea. According to South Korea’s military, the missile flew 372 miles (599km) before falling into waters between Japan and South Korea. This was North Korea’s third ballistic missile test this year, which comes amid reports that North Korea is deepening its military co-operation with Russia. During a visit to the capital Pyongyang from 25-27 March, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), met North Korean Minister of State Security Ri Chang Dae, illustrating ties between the two states. Western governments have expressed concerns that Pyongyang is now a significant supplier of weapons to Russia in its war against Ukraine. This has seemingly translated into more diplomatic support by Moscow for Pyongyang. On 28 March, Russia used its veto at the UN Security Council to shut down a panel of experts monitoring North Korea’s sanctions violations (which had been renewed annually for 14 years). With the cover of its deepening ties with Russia, North Korea is likely to carry out more missile tests and to adopt increasingly bellicose rhetoric towards South Korea over the coming months, sustaining regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Apr 24. Haiti: Violence will highly likely persist in opposition to MSS deployment. On 1 April, small-arms fire broke out around the National Palace in the capital Port-au-Prince. At least one police officer was injured and an armoured car was set ablaze by gangs. The UN reports that as of 22 March, at least 1,554 people have been killed and 826 have been injured in the ongoing violence. Meanwhile, on 30 March, 70 Canadian soldiers were sent to Jamaica to train a contingent of 330 Bahamian, Belizean and Jamaican troops in preparation for a Multinational Security Support (MSS) deployment to Haiti. However, it is highly unlikely that the MSS mission will be deployed before Haiti’s transition council is officially sworn in. It is also unlikely that the force will be deployed if there is a significant escalation in violence. We assess that gang violence is likely to be sustained in the medium term in the capital in opposition to the council and the MSS’ deployment. Despite ongoing evacuation operations, bystander, operational and extortion risks will remain heightened. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Apr 24. Auditor General comes down hard on Modise’s Department of Defence. Two weeks after her Department of Defence (DoD) was hauled over the coals by its internal audit committee, Minister Thandi Modise’s portfolio was given more of the same by Auditor General Tsakani Maluleke. The audit committee found total irregular expenditure standing at R15.98 bn, arising from the compensation of employees bill reaching a total of R10.1 bn and R4.9bn coming from within the procurement environment and logistics division. Fruitless and wasteful expenditure amounts to R438.7m. As with the previous roasting, the Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV) again heard how poorly the DoD, including the Department of Military Veterans (DMV), performed in its duty to “serve the public good”. A list of material irregularities was presented to Cyril Xaba’s PCDMV on 27 March, with progress reported on some. “Likely financial loss” was pointed out by the Auditor General as the probable outcome of many, including lease payments for unoccupied buildings, an incorrectly awarded inventory and asset management contract and what is termed an “unfair award for fuel supply”. The list mentions by name 1 and 2 Military Hospitals (non-usage of medical equipment) and the Department of Military Veterans where “allocation and payment of emergency housing to ineligible military veterans” will or has resulted in financial loss.
As far as actions taken on these matters are concerned, Maluleke’s office notes, among others, “no response received on actions taken to address recommendations”; awaiting “detailed feedback” from Acting Secretary for Defence (SecDef), Thobekile Gamede; investigation still in progress; and referred to the Special Investigating Unit (SIU).
With regard to the DoD making progress based on the Status of Records Review (SoRR), the AG found that the DoD did not finalise the review of audit action plans in time to address findings raised during the 2022-23 audit cycle; the internal audit division was not sufficiently resourced; the department did not establish adequate and sufficient internal controls relating to tangible capital assets; and none of the five qualification areas were resolved or were in the process of being addressed.
Furthermore, progress to address the completeness of the irregular expenditure qualification was limited. Progress to address procurement related internal control deficiencies was “of concern”. The AG’s review “noted limited movement in investigations of irregularities (irregular and fruitless and wasteful expenditure, financial misconduct and material irregularities).” The investigation delays “have a negative impact on implementing consequence management.”
As border safeguarding equipment has not yet been procured in spite of budget being made available, the delay may “affect the department’s efforts to effectively protect the borderlines.”
The impact of these concerns is that material misstatements are likely to recur; there will be an increase in irregular, fruitless and wasteful expenditure; no consequences for transgressors will have an impact on enforcing accountability; and as losses to the state are not promptly and effectively recovered, resources are not being used effectively and economically. Furthermore, procurement delays have a negative impact on the availability of much needed defence capabilities.
Maluleke’s presentation makes special mention of what is termed a “legal conundrum”. This arises because SecDef “does not have the power to exercise disciplinary functions over members, while the chief of the SANDF [SA National Defence Force] has the power to take steps, including disciplinary steps, against members and certain employees”. This effectively means Gamede “cannot lawfully take disciplinary steps against members under the purview of the chief of the SANDF”. Additionally she cannot lawfully instruct the Chief, General Rudzani Maphwanya “to take those steps”. This, the presentation has it, is due to the structure and distribution of power in the Defence Act and the DoD’s internal accountability arrangements.
“Remedial action and certificates of debt can only be issued to a defaulting accounting officer and do not extend to any other official or officer, in this case, the chief of the SANDF,” according to the presentation.
The presentation has five “key messages” for Minister Modise to accelerate accountability improvements to “serve the public good”.
On the DoD, the internal control environment must be strengthened to achieve accurate and transparent reporting. Senior management posts must be filled. Leadership must collaborate to implement consequence management and protect departmental resources. Additionally, the DoD accountability framework, including the departmental delegations by SecDef, must be revised. The supply chain management function must move to “the purview and control of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO), as required by National Treasury Regulations in terms of the PFMA (Public Finance Management Act)”.
For the DMV specifically, instability at leadership level “should be addressed”, the internal audit unit “must be capacitated” and consequence management “must be implemented”.
At the DoD, the AG wants to see a stronger internal control environment in the best interests of accurate and fair reporting as well as a revision of the “accountability framework” and a repositioning of supply chain management under the “purview” of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO).
In a telling conclusion, the AG has it there should be a “culture shift” at and in the DoD with the emphasis on performance, accountability, transparency and integrity. Additionally, ethical leadership should be enforced with those in charge and command performing effectively and taking accountability for their specific areas of responsibility. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
02 Apr 24. New Evidence Links Russian GRU Unit to Havana Syndrome Attacks on U.S. Officials. A thorough investigation has revealed compelling evidence indicating that the unexplained health phenomena known as Havana Syndrome, experienced by U.S. government personnel and their families stationed overseas, could be attributed to the activities of a Russian military intelligence unit, specifically the GRU’s Unit 29155. This unit, with a notorious background in sabotage and assassination missions, is now suspected of employing directed energy weapons against American officials, contradicting previous assessments that downplayed the likelihood of such attacks being orchestrated by a foreign adversary.
One case involved an American nurse married to a U.S. Embassy official in Tbilisi, Georgia. She recounted an episode in October 2021 where she experienced an overwhelming auditory sensation that led to severe physical discomfort. Coinciding with this incident was the presence of a suspicious individual identified as Albert Averyanov, linked to Unit 29155, near her residence.
Further investigations have implicated Unit 29155 in a series of incidents across various global locations where U.S. diplomats and their families reported symptoms consistent with exposure to sonic or directed energy, such as intense pressure and noise in the ears, headaches, and cognitive disruptions. These symptoms align with the operational capabilities attributed to Unit 29155, renowned for its deployment of non-traditional weaponry.
The implications of these findings are significant, suggesting a deliberate campaign by Russian intelligence to target and incapacitate U.S. government personnel through means that have remained largely unacknowledged by official U.S. intelligence assessments. The Russian government has categorically denied involvement, dismissing these allegations as unfounded despite the mounting evidence presented.
This revelation has stirred concerns among victims and advocates alike, who demand greater transparency and action from the U.S. government. They argue that the identification of GRU Unit 29155’s involvement not only necessitates a reevaluation of previous conclusions about Havana Syndrome but also calls for a robust response to counter and mitigate these covert operations. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
28 Mar 24. Australia moves to lockdown illegal transfer of defence information, services. An Australian Army M1A1 Abrams Tank from the 2nd Cavalry Regiment before a live fire serial during Exercise Brolga Walk at Townsville Field Training Area, Queensland.
Legislation passed in the Australian Parliament on March 27 will strengthen Australia’s national security and support local industry by unlocking defence trade, innovation and collaboration with our AUKUS partners.
The Defence Trade Controls Amendment Act 2024 (DTC Act) and Safeguarding Australia’s Military Secrets Act 2024 (SAMS Act) are expected to remove red tape in defence trade, enhance export control and protect military technology, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles.
“The Albanese Government has passed two crucial pieces of legislation which will safeguard our national secrets, enhance cooperation with our international partners, and protect our national security,” he said.
“The Safeguarding Australia’s Military Secrets Act represents a proactive approach to countering national security threats and protecting military secrets that are central to Australia’s national security and the security of our allies.
“The importance of protecting our nation’s secrets and sensitive information cannot be overstated. It is central to preserving Australia’s national security and to keeping Australians safe.
“The Defence Trade Controls Amendment Act provides defence industry, science and research sectors with greater opportunities for collaboration and trade with our AUKUS partners without the burdensome red tape.
“This will benefit defence industry in Australia, unlocking $5 bn – more than half of our annual exports – to our AUKUS partners.”
Mr Marles said the new legislation will fast-track the delivery of high-end capabilities to the Australian Defence Force by streamlining trade and collaboration with our AUKUS partners; and support the establishment of a licence-free environment for Australian industry, higher education and research sectors.
It will unlock investment and collaboration opportunities for Australian defence industry under the AUKUS framework, with the national exemption for export permits to the US and UK to benefit an estimated $5 bn in annual defence exports, he said.
The SAMS Act is expected to protect military knowledge, skills and experience, as well as regulating the military training that Australians may provide to foreign countries.
Under the new legislation, a person could receive imprisonment for 10 years (or 2,500 penalty units or both) for supply of Defence and Strategic Goods List technology in Australia to foreign person.
In addition, the new legislation outlines that a person could receive imprisonment for 10 years (or 2,500 penalty units or both) for providing Defence and Strategic Goods List services to another person (foreign, outside Australia, without permit etc). (Source: Defence Connect)
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