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22 Mar 24. India’s military strength soars with Dhruv deal, countering regional rivals.
A GlobalData analyst emphasises strategic implications amid India’s push for defence modernisation.
Amidst India’s endeavour to bolster its military capabilities, the recent procurement of Dhruv helicopters signifies a leap towards self-reliance and enhanced regional security.
India’s Ministry of Defence has sealed two contracts with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), marking a milestone in the nation’s defence modernisation efforts. The $974m deal for 34 advanced light helicopters (ALH) Dhruv Mk III reveals India’s commitment to fortify its armed forces and maritime surveillance capabilities.
According to GlobalData’s “India Defense Market 2023-2028” report, the production of ALH Dhruv utility helicopters continues apace, and the ALH Rudra, the weaponised variant of ALH Dhruv, could also be inducted in limited numbers.
In 2020, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) celebrated the completion of the 300th Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH-Dhruv) from HAL Hangar. Since its inception in 2002, some international customers have included Nepal, Ecuador, Mauritius, and the Maldives.
Udayini Aakunoor, defence analyst at GlobalData, asserts that this move reflects India’s strategic vision under the ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ initiative beyond mere acquisitions. By replacing outdated Cheetah and Chetak helicopters with Dhruv variants, India aims to enhance operational efficiency and promote indigenous defence manufacturing.
The significance of this procurement extends beyond national borders, as it resonates with the broader geopolitical landscape. With tensions simmering in the region, particularly with China’s assertive stance, the versatility of Dhruv helicopters emerges as a force multiplier for India. Aakunoor highlights Dhruv’s tactical transport, utility, and ISR capabilities, positioning it as an asset for both onshore and maritime operations.
GlobalData’s Military Rotorcraft Market Forecast underscores the global shift towards modernisation, with India slated to drive the sector’s growth. The nation is dedicating approximately 9% of the projected $251.5bn expenditure to military rotorcraft.
Moreover, ALH Dhruv’s modular design allows for the integration of weaponry, further bolstering India’s defence capabilities. Alongside the LCH Prachand, Dhruv emerges as a potent indigenous option in the attack role, offering an advantage in the face of regional adversaries.
India’s investment in Dhruv helicopters enhances its operational versatility and shows its commitment to self-reliance and regional security. As geopolitical dynamics continue to evolve, the significance of such acquisitions shapes the security paradigm in neighbouring regions. (Source: army-technology.com)
22 Mar 24. Niger: Attacks in Tillaberi point to elevated threats facing overland movement, government stability. On 20 March, around 100 unidentified gunmen killed at least 23 Nigerien soldiers and wounded 17 others in a multifaceted ambush against a military unit located between Teguey and Bankilare communes (Tillaberi region). The assailants used IEDs, suicide bombers and small arms. Based on the location of the attack, we assess that it was carried about by either the al-Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) or Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS); both groups have increased the rate of their incursions into Niger since the July 2023 coup. Further mass casualty attacks are highly likely in the coming weeks as the junta continues to distance itself from its former security partners (namely France and the US). The threat is particularly elevated in Tillaberi region, which surrounds the capital Niamey, and where threats to overland movement in and out of the capital are especially vulnerable. We assess that continued casualties among the armed forces will raise the threat of infighting within the junta, ultimately threatening government stability. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Mar 24. GlobalData: supply chains pressured amidst global rearmament race. Rising defence spending spurs production surge across Europe and beyond, putting supply chains under strain.
The intensifying race to rearmament, driven by geopolitical tensions and escalating defence budgets, is placing strain on global supply chains, according to a new report by GlobalData.
With Europe and other regions ramping up production lines, securing rare earth elements, and modernising armed forces, the demand for military hardware surges.
The US Department of Defense recently awarded $7m to the Doe Run Resources Corporation to complete a demonstration-scale hydrometallurgical plant in Missouri to enhance the separation process and secure cobalt and nickel supplies.
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Meanwhile, MBDA has increased its stockpiles of specialised iron to 80 tonnes, nearly 20 times its usual reserve, in response to supply chain tensions.
In response to the escalating conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape, Russia alone is projected to manufacture five million artillery shells and approximately 700 cruise missiles in 2024. This surge in production is emblematic of a broader trend reshaping the global defence landscape as nations bolster their arsenals to navigate the complexities of modern warfare.
James Marques, aerospace, defence, and security analyst at GlobalData, highlights the strain on military resources, stating: “Vital items such as artillery shells, air defence missiles, and armoured vehicles are seeing rates of attrition in the war in Ukraine at rates unheard of in recent times.”
The repercussions of this heightened demand are reverberating across supply chains, with Western nations striving to replenish depleted stocks while simultaneously supporting Ukrainian forces.
The United Kingdom, for instance, has donated 300,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by January 2024 and has inked deals worth £2.4bn ($3.1bn) with BAE Systems to increase munitions production by 2026. Similarly, companies like Rheinmetall and KNDS in Europe are forging ahead with new production lines to meet the escalating demand.
However, the challenges extend beyond Europe. The United States announced a halving of the scheduled construction of Virginia-class attack submarines, a move that directly impacts the AUKUS military alliance. Defence ministries worldwide are reevaluating procurement strategies, prioritising agility and responsiveness, and leveraging commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies to meet evolving demands.
Marques underscores the urgency of shifting away from the ‘just-in-time’ mentality in defence production, emphasising the need for sustained investment and strategic planning. “The era of the ‘peace dividend’ following the Cold War is over,” he asserts, highlighting the imperative for Europe to bolster its defensive capabilities, particularly amid the spectre of growing US isolationism.
As defence spending continues to soar and geopolitical tensions persist, the pressure on global supply chains intensifies, necessitating solutions and strategic partnerships to ensure the readiness and resilience of armed forces worldwide.
(Source: naval-technology.com)
21 Mar 24. DOD Leaders Detail Conditions in Middle East, Africa to House Committee.
The situation in the Middle East and Africa has changed dramatically over the past year, and the Defense Department has moved with speed and agility to address the challenges in these vital areas, said Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, in testimony today before the House Armed Services Committee.
“The world has significantly changed since our posture testimony in 2023,” Wallander said. “The crises proliferating in both the U.S. Centcom and U.S. Africom have created a level of instability not seen in years.”
Testifying alongside Army Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, and Marine Corps Gen. Michael E. Langley, the commander of U.S. Africa Command, Wallander said the National Defense Strategy continues to guide actions in both those areas of responsibility.
“DOD applies principles of partnership, deterrence, diplomacy, integration and values as it works to strengthen integrated deterrence, reduce conflict and promote stability,” she said. “A strong, principled, adaptive U.S. military remains a central pillar for U.S. leadership in the world, while supporting a stable and open international system.”
Dealing with the changed circumstances in both combatant commands is key to navigating between war and peace in the regions, Wallander said.
“Sustainable security relies on expanding regional security constructs, alliances and partnerships and integrating our partners with one another, as well as the United States,” Wallander said. “Respect for fundamental freedoms and human rights expand sustainability in our security partnerships. As we take decisive action to address threats and challenges today in the U.S. Africom and U.S. Centcom , we continue to stand with our partners and allies to win what we view as the competition of coalitions that is becoming increasingly critical to our common security.”
Actions by others — Russia in Ukraine and China’s efforts to increase its footprint in the regions — also must be considered, she said.
The Middle East faces several crises, Wallander said. “Hamas brutally killed 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7, and continues to hold some 130 American and Israeli hostages,” she said. “We are alarmed at the significant loss of life throughout the conflict which followed. Israel has an obligation to protect civilians and uphold international humanitarian law.”
Wallander also said the region is under assault from malign actors across the region. Chief among these is Iran, which is cynically working to exploit the conflict in Gaza to further its own interests. Iran-backed militias work from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen to destroy any sense of security in the region, she said.
The Houthis in Yemen have fired on commercial shipping and naval vessels in the Red Sea seeking to disrupt international commerce.
“Amid these crises, the Department of Defense is rising to the occasion to defend the nation’s values and interests across the region,” Wallander said. “Significant U.S. assistance to Israel aims at ensuring that what happened on Oct. 7 can never be repeated.”
At the same time, the United States continues to underscore with Israel “the importance of obligations related to civilian harm mitigation and risks of conflict to civilians during Israel’s operations against Hamas,” Wallander said.
DOD also continues to hold Iran and its terrorist proxies accountable for attacks on U.S. and coalition forces. “We do not seek conflict in the Middle East, but attacks on American forces will not be tolerated,” she said. “We remain postured and prepared to use all means necessary to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, while working to counter Iran’s destabilizing activities.”
On the African continent, there are other problems. “African partnerships are critical for the Department of Defense to maintain its technological edge, accomplish its geopolitical and strategic objectives, and power our futures,” Wallander said. “Despite Africa’s boundless potential, threats, such as political instability, democratic backsliding and the presence of violent extremist organizations are the focus of DOD efforts.”
Langley, Africom commander, said Africa is feeling the effects of global events that range from Russia’s war in Ukraine to the Houthis attacks in the Red Sea. These events “directly impact the lives of millions of Africans,” he said. “Terrorism, poverty, food insecurity, climate change and mass migration shattered African lives. These factors sowed the seeds of violent extremism and Russian exploitation across entire regions of the continent.”
Challenges to democratic governance and order are endemic in the Sahel, he said, and this complicates relations with key partners. Africom prides itself on the interagency approach to Africa, and the general said he counts on that to help the command continue to engage on the continent in order to safeguard U.S. interests.
Still, that requires resources, and Langley made a plug for Congress to provide the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development to receive “the resources they need to guarantee our combined success,” he said. “In Africa, modest investments and resources go a long way towards advancing our national security interests. Africa faces many challenges, but offers even more opportunities.”
Kurilla, Centcom commander, drew the contrast between the situation last year and today. “As I sat here just a year ago, the region was on the verge of improbable, unprecedented and transformative progress,” he told the committee. “Today, the central region faces its most volatile security situation in the past half century.”
The Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 “not only permanently changed Israel and Gaza, they created the conditions for malign actors to sow instability throughout the region and beyond,” he said. “Iran exploited what they saw as a once in a generation opportunity to reshape the Middle East to their advantage. Iran has worked for decades to encircle the region with its proxies. And in the past six months, we have seen every proxy and the Iranian threat network operationalized in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank and Yemen.”
The Houthi attacks on U.S. warships and international shipping in the Red Sea, coupled with Iran-allied militia strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, are a direct result of an Iranian threat that has been incrementally spreading, Kurilla said. “Violent extremist organizations have also seized on this opportunity,” he said.
The general said the Islamic State is using the chaos to try to reconstitute, and “the risk of attack emanating from Afghanistan is increasing. I assess ISIS-Khorasan retains the capability and the will to attack us and Western interests abroad in as little as six months with little to no warning.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
21 Mar 24. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Meeting With President Wesley Simina of the Federated States of Micronesia.
Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout:
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III hosted President Wesley Simina of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) at the Pentagon today to reaffirm the strong defense and security ties between the United States and the FSM.
The two officials welcomed the recent successful effort by President Biden and Congress to advance the Compacts of Free Association Amendments Act of 2024, which provides funding for the 20-year extension of economic assistance to the Freely Associated States (FAS) under the Compacts of Free Association (COFA). Additionally, they expressed gratitude for the decades of distinguished service by FSM citizens in the U.S. military made possible under the Compacts.
The two officials also underscored the importance of ongoing discussions between both countries to explore opportunities for new cooperation on U.S. defense posture in the FSM, including in the State of Yap, as well as exercise opportunities in the region.
Secretary Austin’s meeting with President Simina comes as the United States continues to strengthen partnerships across the Pacific Islands region, including with the FAS. In August 2021, Secretary Austin met with the President of the Republic of Palau, and he met in September 2022 with the President of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. (Source: U.S. DoD)
21 Mar 24. AUKUS Trilateral Statement.
The Honourable Richard Marles MP, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, Australia; the Right Honourable Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Defence, United Kingdom; and Lloyd J. Austin III, Secretary of Defense, United States.
One year ago, on 13 March 2023 in San Diego, the Leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced the Optimal Pathway. The Optimal Pathway outlines an ambitious plan to deliver a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine capability (SSNs) for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) – a plan that will strengthen our three countries’ combined military capabilities, boost our collective industrial capacity, set the highest non-proliferation standard and enhance our ability to promote stability and security in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
AUKUS is built on the bedrock of decades of close defense, capability and technology cooperation between our three nations and is a natural progression of our partnership. Today, AUKUS partners welcomed the announcement of the selection of ASC Pty Ltd and BAE Systems to build Australia’s SSN-AUKUS submarines, and the selection of ASC as Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine sustainment partner.
The formation of these strategic partnerships with industry is a significant milestone in the AUKUS endeavour. It is a demonstration of our trilateral industry supporting the Optimal Pathway becoming a reality and will underpin Australia’s role as a capable security partner and responsible steward of a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine capability for decades to come.
The enduring trilateral partnership between the governments of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States supports these commercial relationships and further enables the close industrial collaboration across our three countries in support of AUKUS.
ASC and BAE Systems will build the SSN-AUKUS submarines for the Royal Australian Navy. BAE Systems has been at the heart of the UK’s submarine enterprise for generations. SSN-AUKUS is being trilaterally developed, based on the United Kingdom’s next-generation design and incorporating technology from all three nations, including cutting edge United States submarine technologies. Also to be built by the UK and operated by the Royal Navy, SSN-AUKUS will be equipped for intelligence, surveillance, undersea warfare and strike missions, and will provide maximum interoperability among AUKUS partners.
ASC has been at the centre of Australia’s sovereign submarine program for decades as Australia’s sovereign submarine sustainment partner, and the builder of Australia’s Collins-class submarines. ASC will build its sustainment capability for SSNs, including through partnering opportunities with UK and US industry. Sustainment capability is critical to the Optimal Pathway, accelerating Australia’s ability to operate and sustain its own Virginia class submarines as soon as possible and contribute to regional security, together with AUKUS partners.
The Optimal Pathway was always designed to create a stronger, more resilient trilateral submarine industrial base, supporting submarine production and maintenance in all three countries. The announcements today are a testament to that – the build of SSN-AUKUS will increase opportunities for industrial base collaboration, strengthen our collective industrial base capacity, and generate economic growth in defense and national security sectors in all three countries. Similarly, the announcement of Australia’s sovereign sustainment partner is a key milestone to build Australia’s capacity to operate and sustain nuclear-powered submarines. ASC will, in time, develop robust industry partnerships with UK and US businesses to gain the technical skills, know-how and capacity to sustain nuclear-powered submarines.
All AUKUS partners are investing significantly to ensure success of the Optimal Pathway and are working at pace to transform and integrate our trilateral industrial bases to support SSN cooperation.
• Australia has agreed an AUD$1.5bn investment for early priority works at HMAS Stirling, to put in place the enablers for the safe and secure rotational presence of United Kingdom and United States SSNs through Submarine Rotational Force-West from 2027. Australia has also commenced enabling works at the future nuclear-powered submarine construction yard at Osborne Naval Shipyard in Adelaide. All up, Australia has committed at least AUD $18bn in infrastructure upgrades across South Australia and Western Australia over the next 10 years to enable critical milestones for the Optimal Pathway.
• The United States has announced the intended investment of USD $11.4bn in its submarine industrial base across the five-year defense budget period starting in 2025 to increase the production rate of Virginia class submarines as quickly and effectively as possible, to meet its own fleet requirements and support U.S. commitments under AUKUS.
• The United Kingdom also announced last year that it would inject GBP £3bn into its Defence Nuclear Enterprise, including the construction of submarine industrial infrastructure that will help to deliver the SSN-AUKUS program. Subsequently, Rolls-Royce has announced that it will double the size of its Derby site to support the delivery of the UK and Australian programs, which will include building all of Australia’s nuclear reactors.
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States remain fully committed to this shared endeavour. These steps to grow Australia’s submarine construction and maintenance capability are critical to the AUKUS partnership, expanding trilateral industrial capacity and building the collective resilience of AUKUS partners to produce and sustain conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines for decades to come. (Source: U.S. DoD)
21 Mar 24. UK and Australia celebrate closer ties with AUKUS progress and new defence treaty.
UK and Australia ties are stronger than ever following a successful defence and foreign policy summit in Canberra.
• UK and Australian Foreign and Defence Ministers met in Adelaide to discuss shared security issues.
• New Defence and Security Cooperation Agreement signed, laying for foundations for even closer collaboration and making Australia one of the UK’s closest partners.
• Meeting comes as Australia appoint UK firm BAE Systems as a partner to build AUKUS submarines.
UK and Australia ties are stronger than ever following a successful defence and foreign policy summit in Canberra, attended by the Defence Secretary and Foreign Secretary.
Over two days of meetings and engagements with their counterparts which take place annually – dubbed AUKMIN – David Cameron and Grant Shapps discussed shared priorities, challenges and cooperation on issues including Ukraine, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.
Meeting in Canberra on Thursday, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Australia Deputy Prime Minister & Defence Minister Richard Marles setting out closer collaboration including science and technology, information exchange and working together to maintain an open and stable Indo-Pacific.
The agreement will also make it easier for our forces to operate in each other’s nations, facilitating current activity like Operation Interflex and future deployments including the Navy’s Carrier Strike Group in 2025, and the RAF’s Exercise Pitch Black this summer.
Foreign Secretary David Cameron said: “We are facing a daunting set of challenges in a dangerous and uncertain world. That is why cementing our relationship with friends such as Australia is so important. Our strong ties give us a platform to come even closer together in defence of our values. Our work in Australia has reaffirmed to me that close cooperation between our nations is the best way to face up to global threats.”
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “Our international partnerships and friendships with likeminded nations such as Australia are more important than ever in an increasingly dangerous and contested world. Through our joint support to Ukraine, AUKUS partnership and Armed Forces exercises, our is a relationship that is proving the value of cooperation in delivering security and prosperity.”
During a day of meetings on shared priorities and challenges, the UK and Australia’s continued commitment to Ukraine was on the agenda, with UK and Australian troops working together to train over 35,000 Ukrainian recruits in the UK to date. Grant Shapps welcomed Australia’s £25m contribution to the UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine which seeks to provide Ukraine with the capabilities they need, procuring direct from industry, and announced a new package of multipurpose drones and air defence capability that will be delivered to Ukraine in the coming months through the fund.
The £60m package will be rapidly procured in the coming months in a further boost for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. £40m will be spent on more than 150 surveillance drones, and a further £20m will be spent on additional air defence systems, including radars to detect incoming missiles and drones targeted at Ukraine’s cities and military positions, as well as mobile workshops to help quickly repair equipment near the frontline.
The package will be procured from industry using supply chains already providing capability for Ukraine, including from leading manufacturers such as British company Malloy Aeronautics and Tekever, and demonstrates the continued commitment from nations around the world – including the UK and Australia – to support Ukraine.
Ahead of the meetings, the Foreign Secretary and Foreign Minister Wong signed a Memorandum of Understanding to tackle Gender Based Violence in the Pacific, a region in which rates of this crime are among the highest in the world.
Discussions went beyond ensuring regional and global security to advancing prosperity. The Foreign Secretary continued to drive forward plans to ratify the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The Indo-Pacific is set to account for half of global growth by 2050 and the UK is actively pushing to enhance our economic engagement and promote prosperity in the region.
The Foreign Secretary also met with Australian business leaders to highlight the importance of Australian capital to the UK economy and encouraged investors to diversify and support energy transition and HMG’s key priorities. This engagement with both the Australian and Indo-Pacific economies brings benefits to Britons and Australians alike, creating jobs and growth in both countries. Meanwhile, the Defence Secretary met with Defence industry leaders to discus cooperation.
All four Ministers visited Osborne shipyard on Friday morning, where BAE Systems are constructing Hunter ships, based on the UK’s Type 26 design. in another win for UK defence industry. Australia is also investing in Rolls-Royce, Derby, where the nuclear propulsion plants will be manufactured. The AUKUS programme, first announced in 2021, will support over 21,000 jobs in the UK at its peak – concentrated in Barrow-in-Furness and Derby. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
21 Mar 24. Haiti: Increased security risks face those travelling to Port-au-Prince, Cap-Haïtien evacuation points. On 20 March, the US government announced that a chartered helicopter started to evacuate US citizens from the capital Port-au-Prince to Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic). On 21 March, a US chartered flight also evacuated US citizens to Florida’s Orlando Sanford International Airport (SFB, US) from Haiti’s Cap-Haïtien International Airport (CAP, Nord department). The evacuation flights come amid renewed episodes of gang violence. According to reports on 21 March, new areas in the suburbs of Port-au-Prince have been targeted by gangs, including the communities of Diègue, Métivier, Meyotte and Pétion-Ville. In the short term, the risk of gang violence is likely to remain heightened and to spread to new areas. While US chartered flights will likely continue, the evolving security situation means that there are heightened kidnapping and attack risks facing those seeking to travel to evacuation points in Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haïtien. We assess that regular commercial flights will likely remain suspended in the short term. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Mar 24. South Sudan: Convoy ambush highlights risks to overland movement; further attacks are possible. On 19 March, unidentified gunmen ambushed a convoy and killed 15 individuals in Boma county (Pibor administrative area). The incident reflects rising ethnic tensions and elevated levels of violence by rival militias. On 18 March, a UN report recorded a 35% increase in the number of people impacted by violence in the last quarter of 2023. Although violence has significantly declined since the 2018 peace deal, disputes over resources and limited progress in implementing the peace agreement continue to drive intercommunal tensions. In the coming days, there is a realistic possibility of retaliatory attacks by rival militias in Pibor, increasing physical security and bystander risks, particularly for NGO staff engaged in rural development projects and during overland movement. We assess that intercommunal tensions will almost certainly continue to rise ahead of December’s general election, driving instances of targeted violence and inter-communal conflict and further undermining the security environment for NGOs. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Mar 24. Uganda: Cross-border militant movement points to elevated attack risks in western border regions. On 20 March, the authorities deployed troops to Uganda’s western border with Congo (DRC) after suspected Islamic State (IS)-aligned Allied Defence Forces (ADF) militants entered Uganda on 16-17 March. Since June 2023, the group has launched several attacks into Uganda, the first large-scale incursions since Uganda and the DRC launched joint operations against ADF positions in North Kivu province (DRC) in 2021. However, the Congolese armed forces are now focused on combatting the M23 rebel group, reducing their capacity to counteract ADF operations. The Ugandan security forces are likely to maintain a heightened posture in western regions in the coming weeks, implementing checkpoints along roads; this will likely disrupt the transit of goods and personnel. While these measures will likely reduce the number of attacks against towns and cities, the porous nature of the border will sustain the threat of incursions in the coming weeks. The threat of attacks will be particularly elevated during the Christian Easter period (March 29-April 1), driving heightened safety risks for NGO staff in rural border areas. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Mar 24. Pakistan: Attack against Gwadar highlights persistent threats to Chinese investment in Balochistan. On 20 March, the security forces thwarted a bomb and gun attack targeting the Gwadar Port Authority Complex (Balochistan province). The complex hosts offices of government departments, paramilitary forces and intelligence agencies. At least eight militants and two members of the security forces were killed during the counter-terrorist operation. Gwadar’s port is financed by China and forms an integral part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that links China to the Arabian Sea. The attack has been claimed by the Majeed Brigade, a unit of the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). The foiled attack comes amid an uptick in militant activity in Balochistan and attacks targeting Chinese nationals and projects in recent years. We assess that as the Pakistani government already faces pressure from Beijing due to the deteriorating security environment in Balochistan surrounding CPEC projects, the latest incident will further undermine foreign investors’ confidence. There is a realistic possibility that the military will continue conducting counter-terrorism operations in the province in the coming days, likely elevating bystander risks. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Mar 24. UK and Australia commit to modernising and deepening defence relationship.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps signed a new Defence and Security Cooperation Agreement during a visit to Canberra.
A new Defence and Security Cooperation Agreement was signed today at Parliament House, Canberra, by Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles.
This agreement strengthens our partnership to meet the challenges of a more dangerous world.
It includes an agreement which will make it easier for our Armed Forces to operate together in each other’s countries, as is currently happening through Operation Interflex – the joint training of Ukrainian troops in the UK. It will also help facilitate UK submarine crews visiting Australia as part of the AUKUS partnership.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “The UK and Australia fought side by side 80 years ago against tyranny on the beaches of Normandy. Today our two great nations continue to stand together to secure peace and prosperity the world over. We’re facing the challenges of a more dangerous world together, and through partnerships like this agreement, AUKUS, and our continued support to Ukraine, we’re defending our freedoms and shared values.”
Australia Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said: “Australia’s relationship with the UK is dynamic and enduring. From the UK’s leadership of support for Ukraine and efforts to address the Houthi threat, to increasing contributions in the Pacific and the Indo-Pacific, we continue to work closely together to support a global rules-based order. As the world becomes more complex and uncertain, we must modernise our most important partnerships. The agreements we reached today will secure this outcome into the future.”
The agreement also formalises the already established practice of our nations consulting each other on issues that affect sovereignty and regional security.
The new agreement was signed after the Defence Ministers met for annual talks in Australia, ahead of wider meetings together with Foreign Ministers in Adelaide, known as AUKMIN. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
20 Mar 24. DOD Strengthens Indo-Pacific Regional Ties. China continues to present the most comprehensive and serious challenge to U.S. national security, said Ely S. Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs.
That’s because China remains the only country with the will and, increasingly, the capability to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and displace the United States, Ratner said today in testimony before the House Subcommittee on Indo-Pacific.
“Today, the PRC is pursuing its revisionist goals with increasingly coercive activities in the Taiwan Strait the South and East China seas along the Line of Actual Control with India and beyond,” he said.
But conflict in the Indo-Pacific region is neither imminent nor inevitable, and the Defense Department is doing more than ever to keep it that way with the help of U.S. allies and partners, Ratner said. Over the past year, that work has included:
• DOD announcing bilateral agreements with Australia, India and Japan to co-produce or acquire advanced capabilities to strengthen deterrence across the region;
• DOD continuing to implement major defense initiatives with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia;
• DOD concluding a bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement with Papua New Guinea;
• The United States extending economic assistance that will last for the next 20 years for the Compacts of Free Association with three, key Pacific Island partners: Micronesia, Palau and the Marshall Islands;
• The U.S., Japan and South Korea agreeing to a multiyear, trilateral exercise plan, as well as a real-time data-sharing mechanism for warning of North Korean missiles;
• DOD working to integrate Australia and Japan into its force posture initiatives;
• DOD expanding bilateral training with Thailand and Indonesia to feature exercises across the region;
• DOD investing in the next generation of regional defense leaders with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Navy Adm. John Aquilino, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, who also testified, said that that conflict with China is not imminent or inevitable.
“But our potential adversaries have become increasingly aggressive and emboldened. The PRC’s unprecedented military buildup and a campaign of coercive actions continue to destabilize the region, and they challenge the values and institutions that support a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said.
Aquilino said the department must build on the Indo-Pacific progress it has achieved over the last few years, including bolstering Guam’s defense system and working to improve bilateral and multilateral partnerships.
Army Gen. Paul J. LaCamera, commander of United Nations Command/Combined Forces Command/U.S. Forces Korea, testified that within the last year, North Korea has continued developing its military capabilities — including solid-fuel ballistic missile technology — which violate sanctions.
He said North Korean missile systems pose a threat to countries worldwide.
In addition, North Korea has provided military support to Russia, assisting in Vladimir Putin’s illegal and indefensible invasion of Ukraine, LaCamera said.
The U.S.-South Korea alliance has continued to adapt to meet the evolving challenges, he said. In April, the two countries signed the Washington Declaration, which reaffirms their commitment to mutual defense.
In July, South Korea and the U.S. also had their first meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group with the aim of strengthening deterrence and strategic planning to manage the North Korean threat, he said.
LaCamera also said there have been multiple, strategic-asset deployments to South Korea, including a nuclear ballistic-missile submarine and the first B-52 bomber landing in the last 40 years. (Source: U.S. DoD)
20 Mar 24. Pentagon Discusses U.S. Troops’ Stay in Niger with Military Junta. The Pentagon is currently engaging with Nigerien officials to negotiate the continuation of U.S. troops’ presence in Niger, after the country’s military junta issued a directive for their departure. This comes as a pivotal moment for U.S. counterterrorism operations in sub-Saharan Africa. Last week, a high-level U.S. delegation, including notable figures such as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander, and U.S. Africa Command head Gen. Michael Langley, met with the junta in an effort to discuss the future of American military operations in the region.
The meetings, described as “lengthy and direct” by Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh, were partly motivated by concerns over Niger’s potential engagements with Russia and Iran. The U.S. has expressed apprehensions about the direction Niger is heading, with White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre highlighting close monitoring of Russian defense activities in Niger to assess and mitigate risks to U.S. personnel and interests.
The junta’s spokesperson, Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane, labeled recent U.S. flights over Niger as illegal, intensifying the standoff. The situation escalated when local activist Insa Garba Saidou, who assists the junta with communications, declared that American bases and personnel could no longer remain on Nigerien soil. This statement followed the junta’s announcement on March 16, signaling the end of the status of forces agreement between Niger and the United States, prompting the U.S. to seek diplomatic channels for clarification.
These developments have cast a shadow over U.S. military efforts in the Sahel, a region plagued by jihadi insurgencies linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. The U.S. has historically supported local ground troops and conducted both manned and unmanned surveillance operations from a major airbase in northern Niger. However, the suspension of military cooperation by Niger’s junta, which took power in July after ousting the democratically elected president, puts these operations at risk. The decision to end cooperation was not clearly explained, but criticism from junta officials suggests dissatisfaction with U.S. pressure and possibly a pivot towards alternative strategic partnerships, such as with Russia. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
20 Mar 24. Australia advances defence capabilities amidst growing global challenges. An update from Australia’s Deputy Secretary of Defence and the Vice Chief of the Defence Force spelt out advances in meeting the 2023 Defence Strategic Review targets.
In an update delivered during Australia’s Defence Capability Symposium on 13 March, Australian Defence Force (ADF) leaders detailed progress in the nation’s defence capability development, as outlined in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review to meet the urgent capability enhancement.
Vice Admiral David Johnston, the Vice Chief of the Defence Force, emphasised the critical need for swift action to meet government expectations. He advocated for an approach centred on achieving “minimal viable capability,” urging a shift away from seeking perfect solutions towards delivering timely and pertinent capabilities directly to those in operation.
Johnston pointed out the government’s readiness to make difficult decisions, including canceling or reprioritising Defence projects that no longer match the current strategic environment.
Key priorities, including the development of long-range anti-ship, naval-strike, and land-based strike missiles, were said to be advancing steadily.
To support these goals, the ADF plans to introduce a more agile capability acquisition system, complemented by biennial updates to the Defence strategy. This marks a departure from the traditional practice of releasing periodic Defence White Papers. The upcoming National Defence Strategy, expected in the near future, will align Defence planning closely with governmental directives.
At the announcement, deputy Secretary Defence Strategic Review Implementation Tom Hamilton acknowledged progress towards the accelerated acquisition of long-range strike capabilities.
The Australian MoD had set out the need to rapidly accelerate and expand its long-range fires (land-based maritime strike) programs as a part of the 2023 Review. This includes the acquisition of systems like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the Precision Strike Missile to enhance the Army’s ability to project power and achieve strategic and operational effects, and the Review made specific mention of accelerating and expanding the HIMARS programme in the land domain immediate investment priorities.
The 2023 Review also made the case for an enhanced integrated targeting capability to support long-range strike operations in all domains. This capability was described as essential for effectively identifying and engaging targets at extended ranges, to increase the effectiveness of long-range strike missions.
This is crucial in the context of the defence posture Australia aspires to, where alignment is found between land-based precision strike capabilities and broader defence strategies, with an emphasis on synchronising the delivery of long range fires in conduction with deployment of landing craft and infantry fighting vehicles to achieve the required strategic and operational effects.
The 2023 Review also highlighted the necessity for F-35A Joint Strike Fighter and F/A-18F Super Hornet aircraft to be capable of operating the Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile. Additionally, and recommended the integration of the Joint Strike Missile (JSM) onto the F-35A platform to enhance the anti-ship capabilities of the fleet.
To enable the F-35A fleet to effectively operate the Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles, the aircraft needed to undergo upgrades to the Block 4 configuration, essential to ensure that the aircraft can effectively deploy and utilise the advanced anti-ship missile systems, and to maintain a credible deterrence posture for protection of Australia’s maritime interests in the region.
Australia’s surface combatant review
Hamilton also stated that the Ministry of Defence goals had made good progress, marked by the completion of the Surface Combatant Review.
Embracing the strategy of employing a larger number of smaller surface vessels to increase Navy’s lethality and operational effectiveness, the 2023 review emphasised the need for acquiring a contemporary optimal mix of Tier 1 and Tier 2 surface combatants to enhance Navy’s capability in long-range strike (maritime and land), air defence, and anti-submarine warfare.
It was deemed crucial to provide an assessment of capability requirements in light of current strategic circumstances and to determine the optimal fleet configuration.
Based on this finding, the Government was directed to conduct an independent analysis of Navy’s surface combatant fleet capability to ensure that the fleet’s size, structure, and composition, with particular attention to complementing the capabilities provided by forthcoming conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines.
The concluding recommendation suggests a Navy surface fleet configuration of 26 major combatants, including: three upgraded Hobart class air warfare destroyers with enhanced air defence and strike capabilities; six Hunter class frigates to strengthen the Navy’s capabilities in undersea warfare and strikes; 11 new general purpose frigates designed to offer maritime and land strike, air defence, and escort functions; and six new Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels (LOSVs), which will substantially enhance the Navy’s capacity for long-range strikes.
The resulting recommendations for rapid capability enhancement are likely to be undermined by significant workforce challenges, acknowledged in the 2023 review. Ensuring an adequate workforce to sustainably meet enterprise priorities, readiness for future contingencies, and transitioning new and technologically advanced capabilities into service is identified as one of the biggest challenges for the Navy. (Source: army-technology.com)
19 Mar 24. Escalation of Tensions Between Pakistan and Afghanistan Following Cross-Border Shelling and Airstrikes. The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has become increasingly strained, leading to a series of violent incidents that have escalated tensions between the two nations. These events have caused both military and civilian casualties, triggering a cycle of retaliatory actions.
Pakistani Airstrikes: Pakistan conducted airstrikes against what it claimed were hideouts of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) inside Afghanistan, resulting in the death of at least eight individuals, including women and children. These actions were reported by the Afghan Taliban and confirmed by Islamabad as targeted anti-terrorist operations based on intelligence. The operations aimed to neutralize militant threats originating from Afghan territory.
Afghan Taliban’s Response: The Afghan Taliban condemned the Pakistani airstrikes as infringements on Afghanistan’s sovereignty. They retaliated by targeting Pakistani military installations along the border using heavy weaponry.
Catalyst for the Airstrikes: The immediate cause for these airstrikes was a suicide bombing and a coordinated attack that killed seven Pakistani soldiers in the northwest region of Pakistan, prompting the Pakistani military to respond.
Diplomatic Stance: The Foreign Office in Islamabad has labeled the airstrikes as directed against a faction of the TTP. Meanwhile, the Afghan Taliban’s counter-actions and public condemnations have deepened the divide between the two administrations.
Rising Tensions: Pakistan expresses increasing concern over the Afghan Taliban’s alleged harboring of TTP militants, whose attacks within Pakistan have surged since the Taliban assumed control of Afghanistan in 2021.
Humanitarian Impact: The conflict has not only led to a toll in human lives but has also worsened the humanitarian situation. Notably, Pakistan’s mass deportations of Afghans, criticized internationally, have heightened tensions. The campaign against Afghans in Pakistan lacking proper documentation has resulted in the expulsion of nearly half a m people, amid growing apprehensions about deteriorating conditions in Afghanistan. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
18 Mar 24. No time to go it alone on capability, says DEPSEC. The Defence Trade Controls (DTC) Amendment Bill 2023 before Parliament will streamline trade with the United Kingdom and United States and is critical to Australia’s ability to more closely integrate its defence industrial base with partners, Defence’s Deputy Secretary Strategy, Policy, and Industry, Hugh Jeffrey, has told an international conference.
In a keynote address to the Center for Security and International Studies’ Strengthening Australia – US Defense Industrial Collaboration conference in Canberra on March 6, Mr Jeffrey said Australia must strengthen its industrial base cooperation with its partners if it is to effectively respond to a deteriorating strategic environment.
That environment has caused severe, “disruption of Defence planning assumptions,” he said. This is compounded by the fact “we strategically de-mobilised,” after the cold war, Mr Jeffrey added. “Strategic competition has returned with a vengeance.”
“In a much more contested world, it is our ability to work across sovereign boundaries and pool our resources that gives us a genuine competitive edge” he said, adding that partnerships such as AUKUS and the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance enterprise should become the norm, not the exception.
“A run-faster strategy won’t avail us if we just try to go it alone in our national industry sovereign defence chains.
“We have to adapt our respective export control and protective security regimes so that we can take advantage of the innovative and productive capacities of our partners.”
‘A run-faster strategy won’t avail us if we just try to go it alone.’
Mr Jeffrey emphasised the DTC Bill will include exemptions to streamline trade between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom by removing key barriers to the export of military technology, and reduce compliance burdens on industry, higher-education and research sectors.
“That’s where implementation design has become incredibly important,” he said. “Think scalpel, not sledgehammer.
“As our principal trade partners, national exemptions in the US and UK would mean almost a third of export applications are no longer required. This in turn is expected to generate a net benefit to the Australian economy of over $600m over a 10-year period.
“We’ve been designing this bill in consultation with key stakeholders in industry and the university and research sectors. And I’m pleased to say that many have said they support the intent of the bill and the approach we are adopting, which is to strike a balance between facilitating increased international collaboration and national security requirements.”
View the full keynote address: https://www.csis.org/events/strengthening-australia-us-defence-industrial-cooperation (Source: https://www.ex2.com.au/news/)
19 Mar 24. General Says Crisis in Haiti Requires International Response.
The crisis in Haiti requires an international solution that also includes the Haitian perspective, said Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander of U.S. Southern Command.
Southcom has a wide range of contingency plans and is prepared for a possible mass migration from Haiti or elsewhere, she said today at an Atlantic Council event.
“We want to be able to do what’s right and humane and be able to take care of the populations that are trying to escape the crisis,” Richardson said.
As of now, the U.S. doesn’t have plans to send troops into Haiti, she said. The State Department is working with other governments in the region and internationally, as well as with nongovernmental organizations, to provide solutions.
Richardson said there’s a lot of international support for Guyana, as neighboring Venezuela disputes their common border. “We continue to watch the situation very, very closely,” she said.
When asked about a Chinese space facility in Argentina, Richardson said the U.S. continues its close collaboration with Argentine government. “That is for Argentina to decide on how that facility will remain, if it remains there, and what the way ahead for it is.”
Regarding China’s strategy for the region, Richardson said Beijing is eager to import minerals and food from various nations. China’s trade within Southcom’s area of responsibility has gone from about $12bn to about $300bn over the last 20 years and is expected to double by 2035.
She said China has also provided loans to nations in the region with strings attached. The U.S. doesn’t do business with strings attached “because we’re a like-minded democracy. We would like this region to remain free, secure and prosperous,” Richardson said.
Equipment Swap
Nine nations in the region have Russian military equipment, she said. The U.S. is offering to swap out that equipment for use in Ukraine and will backfill it with U.S. equipment, which is much better than Russian-made equipment.
Richardson said she’s enthused that women’s peace and security efforts in the region are making progress. Women are being integrated into the military, thereby increasing readiness of nations.
The general said she looks forward to continuing to engage with partners in the region to cut down on illegal fishing, mining and logging and the trafficking of people, drugs and counterfeit goods, as well as other criminal activities. (Source: U.S. DoD)
18 Mar 24. Niger Terminates Military Agreement with the United States.
Niger has announced the termination of a military agreement with the United States, effectively demanding the withdrawal of American military personnel and civilian staff associated with the Department of Defense from its territory. This move comes after discussions with US diplomatic and military officials, highlighting a deteriorating relationship between the two countries since a military junta assumed power in Niger in July 2023. The agreement, signed in 2012, has been criticized by the Nigerien military government for being “profoundly unfair” and in violation of the nation’s sovereignty, according to Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane, a military spokesperson for Niger.
The termination of this accord has major implications for the United States’ strategic interests in the Sahel region, particularly in counterterrorism efforts. The Pentagon had previously emphasized the importance of maintaining a military presence in Niger to combat terrorism. At the time of the announcement, approximately 648 US military personnel were reported to be deployed in Niger, down from 1,100, following the United States’ formal designation of the July 2023 power takeover as a coup.
The decision also came on the heels of a visit by a senior US delegation, which, according to Abdramane, did not adhere to diplomatic norms, further straining relations. The Nigerien government accused the US delegation of undermining Niger’s right to select its partners freely and criticized what it described as a condescending attitude from the United States.
This move aligns with a broader trend in the Sahel region, where countries are increasingly questioning the motives of Western military presence and seeking alternatives, including partnerships with Russia. The cancellation of the military cooperation with the US follows similar steps taken by other nations in the region and the departure of French troops from Niger, who had led foreign counterterrorism efforts for a decade. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
15 Mar 24. Georgia: Stalled progress towards EU membership will drive unrest, government stability risks. On 14 March, Transparency International (TI) Georgia criticised the government’s apparent reluctance to implement reform recommendations for advancing towards EU membership. TI Georgia stated that the government approved an action plan in late November 2023 in response to the EU’s guidance, but also opined that the roadmap lacks specificity, particularly in relation to justice reforms. According to the watchdog, the vagueness of the document means that it is difficult to discern the measures which the Georgian authorities intend to take in order to implement the EU’s recommendations. The European Council granted EU candidate status to Georgia in December 2023 on the understanding that Tbilisi would take the relevant steps regarding reform efforts. According to polling from the International Republican Institute (IRI) published in November 2023, 86% of Georgians surveyed responded that they support their country joining the EU. As such, perceived failure by the Georgian authorities to realise Tbilisi’s ambitions of joining the bloc will likely raise domestic unrest risks in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Mar 24. Argentina: Expansion of armed forces’ domestic function signals increasing risks of militarisation. On 19 March, Argentina’s defence and security ministers together proposed a package of reforms to expand the domestic function of the military. The proposed changes come alongside an unprecedented military deployment in Rosario (Santa Fe province) amid rising ‘narco-terrorism’. The bill will likely seek to reform the articles which limit the use of the military to serious situations such as that in Rosario, as well as the law which prevents the military from acting against non-state-backed forces or non-regular forces. Also on 19 March, 120 uniformed personnel, five helicopters, three naval vessels and 22 logistics trucks were deployed to support the ongoing operations in Rosario. We assess that the proposed reforms will likely increase the risk of the security forces becoming militarised in the long term. The reforms are likely to be unpopular with the Argentine public, as well as within the armed forces themselves due to the legacy of the country’s military dictatorship; we assess that this will elevate domestic unrest risks. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Mar 24. Peru: Congressional fracturing will increase government stability risks in short-to-medium term. On 19 March, the Public Prosecutor’s Office opened another investigation into President Dina Boluarte amid further claims of corruption and failure to declare the possession of luxury items. Attorney General Juan Carlos Villena demanded documentation from the Presidency of the Council of Ministers (PCM), including bank statements and invoices of President Boluarte. Continued investigations into President Boluarte come amid sustained public opposition to her presidency. According to a poll published by the Institutio de Estudios Peruanos (IEP) in late January, President Boularte’s approval rating has fallen to 8%, the lowest of her tenure. The investigation into President Boularte indicates growing short-to-medium-term government stability risks. However, despite the increasing likelihood of President Boularte being impeached, we assess that congressional elections are unlikely in the short term. Domestic unrest risks will therefore likely remain heightened in the short-to-medium term; corruption and supervision quality risks will likely increase in the long term. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Mar 24. Sahel: Niger’s revocation of US military accord will further undermine regional security conditions . On 16 March, Niger’s junta revoked a military accord (with immediate effect) that previously allowed US military personnel and civilian defence staff to operate from the country. While officials stated the decision was prompted by a breach of diplomatic protocol during a visit by senior US officials who sought to discuss the country’s democratic transition, the move is consistent with the Nigerien junta’s shift towards Russia. The announcement significantly threatens the future of the Agadez airbase (the centre of US counterinsurgency, reconnaissance and rapid strike capabilities across the Sahel). While negotiations over the future of the US presence are ongoing, the risk of a full US withdrawal in the coming months is now elevated. This will undermine the junta’s capacity to identify and pre-empt jihadist operations. We assess that this will, in turn, almost certainly intensify jihadist attack threats, elevating the security risks facing staff and assets throughout Niger, particularly in Tillabéri region surrounding the capital Niamey, as well as across the wider Sahel.
(Source: Sibylline)
18 Mar 24. Russia: Repression will continue following incumbent’s landslide victory, strengthening status quo. On 17 March, Russia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) reported that the incumbent President Vladimir Putin received 87.32% of the vote in the 15-17 March presidential election. While the CEC underscored Russia’s highest post-Soviet turnout, with 74% casting their ballot, we assess that the vote was almost certainly the least free and fair event of its kind since the Soviet era. At least 75 people were detained in 17 cities for participating in the passive ‘Noon Against Putin’ protests organised by supporters of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Additional anti-Kremlin actions involved individuals pouring ink into ballot boxes and one woman throwing a Molotov cocktail at a polling station. Although these actions underscore the persistence of anti-Kremlin activism in Russia, they remained relatively isolated and failed to attract mass participation. As such, they are unlikely to threaten the status quo. We asses that intense repression will continue following Putin’s victory. For further analysis on the election. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Mar 24. Haiti: Opposition to transition council will highly likely sustain government stability, attack risks. On 14 March, the National Penitentiary and a police academy in the capital Port-au-Prince (Ouest department) were reportedly subject to arson attacks and small arms fire. The attacks followed an announcement by the leader of the G9 gang coalition, Jimmy Chérizier, who stated that the forced resignation of the former prime minister, Ariel Henry, was just the ‘first step in the battle’. Former senator Jean-Charles Moïse, who is allied to the former police officer and rebel leader Guy Philippe, reportedly announced that his Petit Desalin party would not take part in the council, despite being offered a seat. Moïse and Philippe have proposed their own transition council. In the medium term, opposition to the transition council by key power brokers will sustain government stability risks. We assess that continued violence in the capital is likely to sustain bystander safety, supply chain and operational risks for humanitarian organisations. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Mar 24. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Significant conflict is unlikely despite airstrikes. Earlier on 18 March, the Taliban government in Afghanistan claimed that Pakistan carried out two airstrikes against Khost province (Afghanistan). It condemned the strikes, which it stated killed eight people. The Taliban claimed that its forces subsequently targeted Pakistani military assets across the border with artillery. Pakistan has since claimed the strikes, which it says targeted the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group, which, along with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has conducted multiple terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. On 16 March, seven Pakistani soldiers were killed in a militant attack on an army base in North Waziristan (Pakistan). On 17 March, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari pledged ‘a befitting reply to the terrorists’. The episode comes amid significantly elevated bilateral tensions as Islamabad blames Kabul for a rise in regional militancy. While limited tit-for-tat exchanges of fire are likely in the coming hours and days, such skirmishes are unlikely to escalate beyond border areas. However, the TTP and associated groups will possibly seek to increase activity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (Pakistan) following the strikes, elevating collateral risks near targets associated with the security forces. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Mar 24. Moldova: Reported strike against separatist region likely aimed to prompt Russian protection. On 17 March, the authorities in Moldova’s pro-Russia breakaway region of Transnistria reported a kamikaze drone strike against a military base. The Transnistrian authorities claimed that the drone was launched from Ukraine’s Odesa oblast. However, the central Moldovan government dismissed the reported attack and assessed that the incident was an attempt to incite fear and panic in the region. Notably, the reported strike occurred during the main voting day of the Russian presidential election (Russia opened six polling stations in Transnistria without the consent of the Moldovan authorities). It comes after Transnistrian officials appealed to Russia on 28 February for ‘protection’ against perceived pressure from the central Moldovan government. While we cannot confirm the origin of the drone, the incident was most likely orchestrated to exacerbate tensions between Chișinău and Tiraspol with the likely aim of pushing Moscow to expedite its response to Transnistria’s protection request. However, we continue to assess that annexation is highly unlikely in the short term. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Mar 24. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Pressure to cede territory will drive conflict escalation risks in coming weeks. On 18 March, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned that his country will possibly face a resumption of armed conflict with Azerbaijan if it does not return various Armenian-controlled Azerbaijani territories in Tavush province. Pashinyan claimed that if Yerevan does not compromise with Baku, then a war will possibly begin ‘at the end of the week’. While war is unlikely to break out as imminently as Pashinyan claims it will, his remarks underscore growing concerns within the Armenian leadership over a resumption of hostilities. We assess that a resumption remains a realistic possibility in the coming weeks. On 9 March, Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev demanded the immediate return of four Armenian-occupied villages. Mustafayev also stated that the return of four other settlements under Armenian control can be resolved through border delimitation talks. If Yerevan refuses to cede the demanded territories in the coming weeks, this will increase the threat of a resumption of armed conflict along the border of northern Tavush, including along the H37 highway route that straddles the disputed territories. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Mar 24. India-China: Persistent Chinese claims over India’s Arunachal Pradesh highlight sustained tensions. Earlier on 19 March, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Chinese defence ministry was advancing ‘absurd claims’ regarding India’s north-eastern Arunachal Pradesh state. The remarks were in response to earlier comments made by Chinese defence ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang, who reiterated China’s claims over Arunachal Pradesh, describing it as an ‘inherent part of China’s territory’. Xiogang’s comments come after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the state on 9 March. During his visit, Modi inaugurated the Sela tunnel, which aims to enhance connectivity to the strategic region of Tawang and thereby facilitate the swift movement of troops along the contentious Line of Actual Control (LAC) which marks the disputed border. Since clashes broke out in 2020 along India’s north-western border, both India and China have continued to develop military infrastructure in areas along the LAC. The recent diplomatic row serves to highlight that regional tensions are sustained. Nevertheless, we assess that a significant escalation is unlikely for the foreseeable future. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Mar 24. Colombia: Military operations, retaliatory attacks will raise security risks amid ceasefire suspension. According to reports on 18 March, Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced that a ceasefire with FARC dissidents would be suspended in three departments in response to an attack in Toribío (Cauca department). The ceasefire will reportedly be suspended on 20 March. Military operations will consequently resume in Cauca, Nariño and Valle del Cauca departments. Furthermore, on 18 March, Petro declared that the Clan del Golfo (also known as the Gaitanista Self-Defense Forces of Colombia, ACG) must either accept the government’s proposal for a ceasefire and negotiations or face an elevated military response. The suspension of the ceasefire with FARC dissidents and escalating tensions between the government and the ACG are likely to increase the frequency of military operations and the risk of retaliatory attacks targeting government personnel. This will in turn likely elevate bystander safety risks. However, the ceasefire will not impact negotiations more broadly. We assess that the risk of kidnapping for ransom and extortion will likely increase in those areas where there is no ceasefire. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Mar 24. Rise in SA defence exports ‘miraculous’ – AMD. South African defence exports for 2023 are set to greatly exceed those of the previous year – something the Aerospace, Maritime and Defence Industries Association (AMD) describes as ‘nothing short of miraculous’.
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a consequent rise in global defence spending, South African defence exports have been steadily rising, according to National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC) figures, and are up from R4.6bn in 2022 and R3.3bn in 2021. For the first three quarters of last year, they reached R4.9bn (full calendar year figures are still to be released).
Sandile Ndlovu, AMD CEO, told defenceWeb the rise in exports can be attributed to three things. “Firstly, the work we have been doing through the AMD Export Council has been very effective. Industry has invested quite a lot in opening up markets that have not been considered our traditional markets. So this has helped.
“Secondly, as a sector, we are well regarded globally. We still have products that people want and are prepared to buy. This is a strong testament to the high standards that our sector prescribes to.
“Thirdly, the non-aligned (and principled) stance that our government has taken has ensure that countries feel very comfortable in dealing with South Africa. In the world where global dynamics are constantly changing, it is important for countries to trade with dependable and reliable countries, especially in the area of security.”
Ndlovu added that it’s important to put this rise in exports in its proper context. “Our exports have risen despite the challenges we have with our control regime. So the rise has been nothing short of miraculous.”
The South African defence industry has been hampered by slow NCACC export approvals, as well as decisions that are put on hold indefinitely as opposed to blocked or approved, and difficulty in the NCACC switching over to a digital system.
“While there may be challenges with our regulatory environment, it is important to note that we have made some significant progress in bringing stability and predictability to the regime,” Ndlovu told defenceWeb. “Of course, we still have a long way to go, but I am convinced that because the regulator and ourselves are agreed on a need to modernise our regime, we will definitely get it right.”
He explained that at a practical level, “we need to forge ahead with the digitisation of our permit application system and we also need to commence with the process of amending the NCAC Act, that was last amended in 2012. AMD is working with the regulator on both these issues and we are very optimistic about achieving both of them in the coming months.”
Global defence spending on the rise
Following conflict in Ukraine and now in the Middle East, global defence spending has been increasing, and this has trickled down to South Africa. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that global military expenditure continued to increase in 2022, remaining well over the $2trn mark, to reach a new high of $2 240 bn.
“The continuous rise in global military expenditure in recent years is a sign that we are living in an increasingly insecure world,” said Dr Nan Tian, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. “States are bolstering military strength in response to a deteriorating security environment, which they do not foresee improving in the near future.”
“The increased defence spending is as a result of this realisation, by many nations, that the responsibility to defend and protect yourself cannot be delegated or outsourced. The same should hold true for South Africa as well, seeing that right next door in Mozambique there is conflict,” Ndlovu said.
He emphasised that, when considering which countries to export to, “governments have a moral and, mostly, constitutional responsibility to provide security for their citizens. The South African Defence Industry does not capitalise or profit from instability but works with legitimate governments in ensuring that those governments are capable of protecting their borders and their citizens. So at no stage do we trade with non-state actors no matter how profitable it may seem or be.”
“It is important to stress that in both regions we only deal with countries, upon express approval from our government. And as everyone is aware, the South African government does not approve the proliferation of weapons in areas where these will exacerbate rather than end conflicts,” Ndlovu concluded. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
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