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08 Mar 24. Taiwan-China: Revised ‘first strike’ policy unlikely to significantly alter Chinese behaviour. On 8 March 2024, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced it had revised its ‘first strike’ policy, declaring any unauthorised entry by Chinese military assets into Taiwan’s territorial airspace or waters as an aggressive act. This allows Taiwanese commanders to respond with force if diplomatic solutions fail. The ministry clarified that this definition has been in use since the escalation in military tensions caused by China’s aggressive military exercises around Taiwan after a visit by Nancy Pelosi in August 2022. The frequency and proximity of the People’s Liberation Army’s operations near Taiwan have significantly increased since that visit, elevating the alert level in the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, this announcement comes after US senators introduced legislation to cancel the US-China Income Tax Convention should China attack Taiwan, a largely symbolic move that will likely offer limited practical deterrence. Taiwan’s announcement is unlikely to significantly alter China’s behaviour in the strait, characterised by its attempt at shifting and undermining the status quo by incrementally increasing military pressure on Taiwan. (Source: Sibylline)
08 Mar 24. Construction underway of concrete border wall between SA and Mozambique. The KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Government has resumed construction of a concrete barrier wall along the South Africa/Mozambique border to curb the theft of motor vehicles and the movement of illicit goods, after years of delays.
In late 2020, the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Department of Roads and Transport, working and financing in conjunction with the national Department of Public Works and Infrastructure (DWPI), committed R50 million for the manufacture and positioning of concrete barrier units (jersey barriers) along a stretch of border between South Africa and Mozambique.
In a briefing to the Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV) on 6 March, the Department of Public Works & Infrastructure (DPWI) and KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Government gave an update on the progress of construction in the uMkhanyakude District Municipality in northern KZN, where more than 5 km of border wall has already been completed.
The initial 8 km project had in 2021 been placed on hold pending completion of a Special Investigative Unit investigation into the R85.7 million tender awarded to ISF Construction and Shula Construction by the KZN Department of Transport. The project came to a halt after R48 million had been paid to contractors.
The issue “remained inactive since 2021” but was brought back to the forefront during May 2023 meetings between key stakeholders, the DPWI told the PCDMV. “The province has resuscitated the project and on course to conclude phase 1,” which is an 8 km stretch along the KZN/Mozambique border.
Following environmental impact assessments and “massive social pressure which was ignited by the killing of prominent community leaders who stood against the crime syndicates stealing vehicles and crossing them over to Mozambique border, KZN Department of Transport has resuscitated the border and appointed a contractor to complete the outstanding works for phase 1. The project commenced on the 17th of November 2023 and has a duration of 12 months.” A new contractor was announced in July last year.
Phase 1 – the 8 km long barrier near Tembe Elephant Park – will be followed by phase 2 covering 8 km near iSimangaliso Wetland Park and phase 3 covering 9 km from the western boundary of Tembe Elephant Park towards Pongolo River. Phases 2 and 3 are estimated to cost R270 million and take 24 months, starting from September 2024, but discussions still need to be finalised, the DPWI said.
With regard to phase 1, “the works on the construction site are currently underway. The impact of the project has been received positively by the community and the South African National Defence Force,” the DPWI and KZN presentation read.
That the barrier is already foiling crime was emphasised by a failed attempt to drive a stolen SUV over the barrier using ‘iron ladders’. It appears the ladders buckled, causing criminals to set the vehicle on fire to destroy evidence.
New concrete jersey barriers are being positioned in places identified by SA National Defence Force soldiers on border protection duty as high use and potential high use ones by vehicle thieves. There are 15 companies of troops safeguarding South Africa’s borders, particularly high-risk borders with Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Lesotho. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
07 Mar 24. Brunei defense budget surges by 32%, with focus on intel, targeting. Brunei, a small Southeast Asian sultanate bordered by Malaysia, is significantly raising its 2024 defense budget amid concerns over how to protect its territory.
In the coming fiscal year, the government has allotted 796.3m Brunei dollars (U.S. $594m) for defense. This represents a 31.6% jump over last year’s allocation of 605.2m Brunei dollars.
This rise in military spending heavily surpasses the 5.5% increase in overall government outlays during the fiscal 2024/2025 time period.
When the budget was discussed at the Legislative Council on March 2, the secondary defense minister, Halbi bin Mohammad Yussof, warned Brunei faces a complex and unpredictable security landscape. (The country’s sultan serves as the primary defense minister.)
“The Ministry of Defence and Royal Brunei Armed Forces are actively working to improve intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance, where a new system will be used in the near future,” Halbi said, without providing specifics. “Attention is also focused on the ability to monitor and detect underwater threats to ensure an effective response in maintaining the territorial integrity of Brunei.”
The International Trade Administration, which is part of the U.S. Commerce Department, notes opportunities for American defense contractors in Brunei, having updated this information Feb. 22.
“Brunei has stated its intent to acquire new defense equipment, including surface/maritime surveillance radar, airspace surveillance platforms, maritime patrol aircraft, fixed-wing transport aircraft, medium-range air defense systems, and related assets,” the organization’s website reads. “Military services may also be interested in non-lethal equipment, which may be procured through vendors registered with the Ministry of Defense.”
Brunei considers tensions in the South China Sea, where it and several other nations dispute territorial ownership, as a major security challenge. It also identified other threats in its 2021 defense whitepaper, including regional and global instability; terrorism, extremism and transnational crime; cyber and technological threats; natural disasters; and “the influence of major power dynamics in the region.”
“Tensions over overlapping claims, [and over] illegal fishing, and the security of sea lines of communication (SLOC) from those who seek to exploit internationally recognised laws, all have placed continued and growing demands on Brunei Darussalam’s security forces to secure and police its sovereign maritime borders and territory,” the document noted, using the formal name of the country.
Brunei has already filled some maritime surveillance gaps. It received Insitu-made Integrator drones in 2022 and subsequently set up its first drone unit, No. 39 Squadron.
Furthermore, the Navy received two refurbished Fearless-class patrol vessels in 2023. Singapore donated these secondhand, 500-ton vessels.
Another important purchase in December 2022 was four Airbus C295MW tactical transport aircraft. The first two aircraft were commissioned Feb. 14, with the manufacturer Airbus saying they would “strengthen the country’s air capabilities, and can be deployed on a wide range of missions, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, medical evacuations, noncombatant evacuations as well as search and rescue operations.”
In addition to new equipment, Brunei’s military plans to carefully husband its current assets.
“The replacement, upgrading and service life extension programs for capability systems and infrastructure will be done in stages based on the level of priority, before moving on to new acquisitions in the future,” Halbi said. (Source: Defense News)
07 Mar 24. Japan considers additional defence export reforms to support GCAP. Japan is considering the implementation of further reforms to support military exports. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on 6 March that the additional reforms are necessary to allow future Japan sales of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) aircraft to international customers. Speaking at the House of Councillors budget committee, Kishida said that additional export reforms – to support GCAP sales – are required for three reasons: to reduce GCAP production costs, to support Japan’s national security, and to ensure Japan is recognised as a reliable partner in international defence joint development programmes. Japan is developing the GCAP alongside Italy and the UK under a trilateral partnership announced in December 2022.
“The UK and Italy consider promoting the transfer of finished products to third countries to lower procurement prices as an important element of their contribution, and [they have] requested that Japan take a similar response,” Kishida said in comments released by the Komeito party, the junior partner in the Japanese coalition government. (Source: Janes)
07 Mar 24. Sahel: Joint force formation is unlikely to improve security environment, reduce operational risks. 4wOn 6 March, the military governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced the establishment of a joint military force to combat jihadist activity. The juntas previously signed a collective defence agreement on 16 September, forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This agreement highlights increasingly close relations between the AES states, which announced their unilateral withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States on 28 January (see Sibylline Special Report – 8 February 2024). The AES has not detailed the force’s size or composition, or when it will be operational. While the agreement will likely facilitate improved cross-border military co-operation, the signatories lack the capacity to counter ongoing domestic insurgencies. As such, the alliance is unlikely to moderate transnational jihadist and ethno-religious separatist threats and activity significantly. We assess that the prospects for a substantial improvement in the security environment remain low, sustaining operational risks for firms and NGOs with operations throughout the Sahel, particularly in rural areas. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Mar 24. Egypt: IMF deal will mitigate against financial crisis; risks facing business operations remain elevated. On 6 March, the IMF announced an initial agreement on a USD 8bn loan to Egypt. The announcement came hours after Egypt floated its currency (EGP) and increased its interest rates. These were both pre-conditions for an IMF bailout. As a result, the EGP lost nearly 60% of its value against the USD, signalling likely currency fluctuation in the coming weeks, and elevating risks for business operations. However, the IMF bailout and recent UAE investments will allow the government to inject USD liquidity into banks to further stabilise the EGP exchange rate, mitigating against likely market disruption. In the long term, we assess that free floating the currency will likely fix exchange rate gaps between banks and the black market, further stabilising the economy. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Mar 24. Innovative funding key to saving SANDF – AMD. The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is so overstretched that it cannot meet its commitments, meaning that a new funding model for the procurement and maintenance of military equipment is needed, otherwise the SANDF will continue to be embarrassed on the international stage.
This is according to Sandile Ndlovu, Chief Executive of the South Aerospace Maritime and Defence Industries Association (AMD), who maintains that it’s time for government to explore a private-public funding model.
He mentions recent incidents involving the SANDF in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that paint a negative, and inaccurate, picture of South Africa’s defence industry, which rivals the top industries globally.
“While stability in the region has long been a priority, and the SANDF plays a crucial role in achieving and maintaining it, episodes like our soldiers pushing broken-down trucks while on peacekeeping missions have become more than just an operational hiccup – they are fast becoming a stain on our national image and the reliability of our military equipment,” he wrote in reference to a viral video of SANDF soldiers in the DRC pushing a Mamba armoured personnel carrier.
The reality, Ndlovu affirms, is that Treasury simply does not have the funds needed to bolster South Africa’s military and purchase the necessary armament and other equipment needed for peacekeeping missions and state security.
The 2024/25 defence budget is set at R51.8bn, compared with R51.1bn appropriated for 2023/24 but subsequently adjusted to R52.4bn. For 2025/26, the defence budget rises to R53.7bn and for 2026/27 it increases to R56.2 bn.
“Defence analysts agree that the SANDF is so severely underfunded that it cannot meet the commitments required of it in terms of its mandate and defence policy. Faced with increasing costs, demands for missions on the continent, and smaller budgets the SANDF is slowly being hamstrung,” Ndlovu believes.
“Couple this with the fact that we have major socio-economic challenges which take priority when it comes to the fiscus, and it is clear that South Africa needs to develop a new funding model for the procurement and maintenance of military equipment to spare itself ongoing embarrassment on the international stage.
“As an industry we believe that it’s time for government to explore a private-public funding model. This approach, successfully employed by leading global defence forces, offers a pragmatic and immediate solution to our fiscal constraints,” the AMD Chief Executive maintains.
By allowing private companies to assume financial responsibility for developing and delivering military systems, the government can commit to paying for these systems over an extended period. This model aligns with the global trend of engaging private sectors in defence funding, allowing for innovation, efficiency, and sustainable military capabilities.
“We cannot afford to let bureaucratic constraints hinder our ability to address immediate operational challenges,” Ndlovu wrote. “The perception of unreliable equipment affects not only our soldiers but also our global standing as a provider of quality military hardware. Potential clients abroad may question the industry’s capability to deliver dependable products, impacting our export potential.”
According to AMD, approximately 95% of the arms and equipment produced by the South African arms industry is shipped to 25 countries in Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
A number of military vehicles manufactured in South Africa have also been sold to the American armed forces for use in Afghanistan and Iraq, and South African manufactured vehicles, are currently being used in United Nations missions in Somalia and in Mali.
“Yet, our successes on the global stage are overshadowed when our military faces operational failures, questioning the reliability of our equipment. The root causes of these failures are multifaceted, ranging from long-term defunding of the SANDF to limitations in the procurement system, resulting fiscal constraints, making it difficult to allocate sufficient resources for equipment maintenance and replacements,” Ndlovu wrote.
The ANC’s recent decision not to list defence or national security as priorities in its 2024 Election Manifesto highlights just how low it has sunk on the totem pole, he believes. “They are not alone however, as most political parties in South Africa have glossed over both key points of discussion in recent times. As Friedrich List said: ‘National wealth is increased and secured by national power, as National power is increased and secured by national wealth.’
For that reason, the sector will be hosting a series of dialogues with various key stakeholders, including political parties, to discuss the urgency of national security, especially as it pertains to socio-economic change.
“The need for a comprehensive approach to protecting our people, environment, infrastructure, economy, and borders in order to foster a conducive environment for sustainable development and economic progress cannot be underestimated.
“The recurring challenges faced by our soldiers, coupled with the negative impact on the reputation of our defence industry, demand a bold and innovative solution.
“South Africa stands at a crossroads, and our response to these challenges will shape the future of our military capabilities and the reputation of our defence industry. Embracing a private-public funding model is not merely a financial necessity; it is a strategic imperative,” Ndlovu concluded. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
06 Mar 24. Australia and Singapore sign deal to accelerate digital transformation and trade. The two nations have signed a new memorandum of understanding on the sidelines of ASEAN talks in Melbourne.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Singaporean counterpart, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) cementing plans for a green and digital shipping corridor between the two nations.
The MOU aims to “accelerate maritime decarbonisation and digitalisation” and will engage the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) alongside Australia’s Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, which will work with state and territorial governments on its implementation.
According to a joint statement from the two leaders, the MPA is already working with the CSIRO and Singapore’s Agency for Science, Technology and Research on research and development projects under the Australia-Singapore Initiative on Low Emissions Technologies for Maritime and Port Operations, which will feed into the green and digital shipping corridor.
“This agreement will help smooth the way to decarbonise our port and shipping industries and to bring their operations into the digital age,” Prime Minister Albanese told a press conference.
“Prime Minister Lee and I have also today agreed to a set of principles for cross-border electricity trade. These principles bring closer the goal of a renewable energy trade between our countries, bringing opportunities for workers and investors alike.”
Prime Minister Lee also looked ahead to the future, particularly in light of the upcoming 10th anniversary of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) between the two countries in 2025.
“There is still much more that our two countries can and should do together. After all, we are natural partners with complementary economies and compatible worldviews and strategic perspectives on the region and on international affairs,” Prime Minister Lee said.
“The Prime Minister and I, therefore, agreed that we should identify new strategic and forward-looking areas of cooperation for the next edition of the CSP. For example, renewable energy, supply chain resilience, artificial intelligence and air connectivity – areas which will fit in well with Singapore’s and Australia’s priorities.”
The two leaders also talked about the importance of “responsible state behaviour in cyber space”, agreeing that cyber and other critical technologies would be a key part of the CSP in the future.
(Source: Defence Connect)
06 Mar 24. Tensions Escalate in South China Sea as Philippine Vessel Attacked by Chinese Water Cannon.
A Chinese coast guard vessel employed a water cannon against a Philippine government-contracted supply boat, resulting in the shattering of the boat’s windshield and injuries to several crew members. The attack occurred as the vessel was part of a convoy heading to resupply a Philippine military outpost on Second Thomas Shoal, an area within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but claimed by China.
The footage of the incident, released by the Philippines, showcases the moment of impact, underscoring the heightened tensions in the region where sovereignty disputes have long simmered. Beijing asserts dominion over nearly the entire South China Sea, contradicting international law, including a 2016 tribunal ruling dismissing such expansive claims.
The engagement reflects a broader pattern of confrontations in these strategic waters, through which over $3trn in trade passes annually. The Philippine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, established aboard a grounded World War II-era ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, represents Manila’s physical assertion of its territorial claims against Chinese encroachment.
This latest incident prompted immediate condemnation from Manila, highlighting the “illegal and irresponsible actions” of China in the disputed waters and reaffirming the Philippines’ commitment to international law and peaceful conduct. The Chinese Embassy, however, defended the coast guard’s actions as “professional, restrained, reasonable, and lawful,” alleging the Philippine vessels were intruding illegally.
The altercation not only emphasizes the ongoing struggle for control and sovereignty in the South China Sea but also signals the potential for further escalation of military and paramilitary tactics in the region. As nations continue to assert their claims, the international community remains watchful, concerned about the possibility of a larger conflict arising from such incidents.
The United States, a defense treaty ally of the Philippines, expressed solidarity with Manila, condemning the aggressive maneuvers by the Chinese coast guard. This incident highlights the strategic importance of the South China Sea, not only for regional actors but also for global powers, and underscores the precarious balance of navigating territorial disputes, international law, and national sovereignty in a highly militarized and economically vital area. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
06 Mar 24. Quds Force Strategy in the Middle East Under Esmail Ghaani. Esmail Ghaani, the leader of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), has been at the forefront of Iran’s regional strategy following the U.S. killing of his predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, in 2020. The Quds Force, known for its unconventional warfare and support of allied and proxy groups across the Middle East, has seen a notable increase in activities under Ghaani’s command, particularly after the attack in Israel on October 7, 2023. Unlike Soleimani, who became a public figure towards the end of his tenure, Ghaani has largely remained out of the spotlight, despite being instrumental in orchestrating a series of attacks on U.S. targets and bolstering militant groups throughout the region. Since taking over, Ghaani has doubled down on the strategy of arming, funding, and supporting terrorist and insurgent groups in countries like Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and the Palestinian territories. This approach aims to maintain pressure on Iran’s adversaries, namely Israel, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia, by empowering groups within the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” Ghaani’s tenure has witnessed a mix of direct and indirect involvement in regional conflicts. While the Quds Force’s role in certain attacks, such as the Hamas operations in Israel, appears minimal, other actions like the drone attack against a U.S. military outpost in Jordan suggest a more hands-on approach. This incident significantly heightened tensions and led to retaliatory actions by the U.S. and Britain in Iraq and Syria. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
05 Mar 24. China: Defence spending boost will sustain tensions, motivate strategic balancing by regional players. Earlier on 5 March, China announced a 7.2% increase in its defence spending for 2024, raising the total to RMB 1.67trn (USD 231bn). This is the largest rise in five years. The move forms part of President Xi Jinping’s push to modernise China’s military and to transform the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a ‘world-class force’ by 2027. It comes amid concerns over corruption within China’s military and its potential impact on modernisation efforts. Recent changes among high-ranking military roles (including the defence minister and two Rocket Force generals) were made without public explanation, raising suspicions of widespread graft within China’s security forces. Overall, we assess that the budget hike will maintain China’s defence spending at about 1.2% of GDP, indicating that the increase does not point to a significant change in priorities. Additionally, China officially adopted harsher rhetoric vis-à-vis Taiwan during Premier Li Qiang’s work report at the National People’s Congress, abandoning the traditional reference to ‘peaceful reunification’. However, Beijing did claim that it would ‘promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.’ We assess that the increase in defence expenditure and the tougher stance on Taiwan will likely sustain the drive for strategic balancing among regional powers, including Australia, Japan and South Korea. (Source: Sibylline)
05 Mar 24. Canadian leaders vow to be gentle in making defense-spending cuts. The Canadian government has ordered $1.7bn Canadian dollars ($1.3bn) in defense-spending cuts, but it still plans to put emphasis on acquiring new equipment as well as improving North American security. Gen. Wayne Eyre, Canada’s chief of the Defence Staff, and Bill Matthews, the deputy minister of National Defence, said in a statement issued March 4 that they hope to minimize the impact of the cuts which will take place over the next three years.
The plan is to redirect defense spending to increasing military capabilities and improving recruitment, the two noted in a message to military and department staff.
The Liberal Party government tabled in the House of Commons on Feb. 28 its spending estimates for the next several years. Those show reductions in defense spending of $810m in 2024-2025, $851m in 2025-2026 and $907m in 2026-2027.
It is currently projected that Canada will spend $30bn on defense in 2024-2025.
The cutbacks will come from infrastructure and travel budgets as well as funding used for private sector contractors. In addition, there could be money pulled back from future programs, but officials provided no details.
“We will achieve savings from activities that have a history of underspending their approved funding, and from initiatives to be delivered in future years,” Eyre and Matthews noted in their message.
Priority equipment programs and key capabilities, however, will retain their funding or could see more money in their budgets. In its Feb. 27 report titled, “Procurement of Capabilities,” the Department of National Defence noted that projects to modernize systems for NORAD will be accelerated. No specific timelines were provided in the document, but those projects include a new radar system to provide situational awareness in the Arctic for the joint U.S.-Canada alliance.
The cutbacks come at a time when Canada is facing increased pressure, particularly from the United States, to spend more on defense. In an interview aired Feb. 25 on CBC TV, David Cohen, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, acknowledged the significant funds the country has already spent on new military purchases and on Ukraine aid.
“By the same token, I have been quite clear — and the United States has been quite clear — that NATO and the world is watching what Canada is doing with respect to its commitment,” he said.
Canada is the seventh-largest spender in NATO when it comes to actual dollars. But in terms of the commitment by NATO nations to spend 2% of their GDP on defense, Canada has yet to reach that figure, currently standing at 1.3%.
To reach the alliance target Canada would have to add up to $18bn Canadian annually to its defense budget.
In the last year Canada has announced $30bn Canadian in new equipment purchases, including the acquisition of the Lockheed Martin F-35 and the Boeing P8-8A Poseidon. Canada is also buying a fleet of General Atomics MQ-9B Reapers as well as trucks.
In February, Canada announced it was spending $316 m Canadian for new air-defense and counter-drone systems as well as anti-tank missiles for its troops in Latvia as part of shoring up its NATO commitments.
(Source: Defense News)
05 Mar 24. Maldives: Defence agreement with China will likely raise regional tensions. On 4 March, the Maldivian Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced that it had signed an agreement with China that permits Beijing to provide free military assistance to Malé. However, further details of the agreement and the nature of this military assistance have not been revealed. The development follows the Maldives’ earlier ultimatum to Indian troops to withdraw by 10 May; it also comes amid reports of an Indian naval base being constructed on an Indian island located around 80 miles (130km) north of the Maldives. The military assistance deal, likely aimed at bolstering defence ties between Beijing and Malé, is the latest example of the growing bilateral relations between the two countries. It follows the election of Mohammed Muizzu as president in 2023. Muizzu, widely perceived to be pro-China, campaigned on the promise to reduce Indian influence in the Maldives. We assess that the defence agreement will likely pave the way for further strategic co-operation between the two countries, which will in turn likely contribute to regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
05 Mar 24. China Raises Defence Budget 7.2% As It Pushes For Global Heft And Regional Tensions Continue. Tensions with the U.S., Taiwan, Japan and neighbours who share claims to the crucial South China Sea are seen as furthering growth in increasingly high-tech military technologies from stealth fighters to aircraft carriers and a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons. China on Tuesday announced a 7.2% increase in its defence budget, which is already the world’s second-highest behind the United States at 1.6trn yuan (USD 222bn), roughly mirroring the rise of the last year. Tensions with the U.S., Taiwan, Japan and neighbours who share claims to the crucial South China Sea are seen as furthering growth in increasingly high-tech military technologies from stealth fighters to aircraft carriers and a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons. The official budget figure announced Tuesday at the opening session of the rubber-stamp legislature’s annual meeting is considered by many foreign experts to be only a fraction of spending by the People’s Liberation Army, the military wing of the ruling Communist Party, once spending on research and development and foreign weapons purchases are considered. (Source: News Now/https://www.outlookindia.com/)
04 Mar 24. Australia-ASEAN: More focus on regional maritime security will drive moderate tensions with China. Earlier on 4 March, the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit in Melbourne (Australia) pledged around AUD 64m (USD 41.8m) over the next four years towards enhancing Australia’s Southeast Asia Maritime Partnerships. The increasing focus on maritime security comes amid concerns over China’s assertive stance in the South China Sea. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong highlighted the threat of ‘destabilising, provocative and coercive actions’ in the region, stressing the importance of maritime security and co-operation over confrontation for a stable Indo-Pacific. This strategy aligns with the ruling Labor party’s goal to strengthen ties with regional partners while maintaining traditional alliances with the UK and the US, notably through the AUKUS security pact. Australia and the Philippines launched joint sea and air patrols in the South China Sea in 2023, a sign of Australia’s greater regional focus. Australia’s increased emphasis on forging security connections with its Southeast Asian neighbours, particularly the Philippines, will likely drive tensions with China. However, we assess that Canberra will likely aim to manage tensions with Beijing, which have shown recent signs of easing. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Mar 24. Q1 Canadian defence plan costs increase by CAD51.5bn, says PBO. Projected capital spending under Canada’s Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE) defence policy has increased by CAD51.5bn (USD38bn) since 2022, according to the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO), a nonpartisan agent of the Canadian Parliament.
The SSE policy, unveiled in June 2017, projected CAD553 bn in spending over a 20-year period ending in 2036–37. This included CAD164bn for capital acquisitions. The PBO’s report in 2022 put the capital spending envelope at CAD163.3bn, which increased to CAD214.8bn in the report published on 28 February.
The new report said it used updated figures from all SSE capital projects provided by the Department of National Defence (DND) as of August 2023.
The CAD51.5bn increase is attributed to new North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) modernisation projects and delays in existing projects, causing some short-term expenditures to be pushed into later years.
The long-term funding to upgrade Canadian NORAD infrastructure and capabilities was announced in June 2022. Most of the capital expenditures are planned for the 2030s, with minimal funding anticipated over the next few years.
The report found 62% of total anticipated expenditures are now scheduled for the latter half of the 20-year period, up from a near 50/50 split between the first and second 10-year periods. Annual capital expenditures are expected to peak in fiscal year (FY) 2027–28 (Canada’s fiscal year runs from 1 April to 31 March) at CAD18bn, a CAD1.7bn increase over the 2022 PBO report. (Source: Google/Janes)
04 Mar 24. Iraq: New operation against IS remnants will likely elevate collateral risks in regions bordering Syria. On 3 March, the Iraqi security forces launched a major operation against Islamic State (IS) cells in parts of Anbar, Karbala and Nineveh governorates. The main operations are focused on the western desert areas that extend to the border with Syria. The operation will be conducted by the Iraqi military, the internal security forces and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). In the coming days, we assess that airstrikes and armed clashes (as well as elevated collateral security risks) are highly likely in the desert areas west of Anbar and Karbala, as well as in al-Jazira region (Nineveh). Additionally, checkpoints will likely be established along highways connecting towns and cities in these governorates to the Syrian border; arbitrary stop-and-search operations are also likely in border towns. We assess there is a realistic possibility that the operation will disrupt transport mobility via the al-Qa’im (Anbar) border crossing with Syria in the coming days. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Mar 24. RoK, US troops kick off annual drills over North threats. South Korean and U.S. militaries kicked off their spring drills on Monday with twice the number of troops joining compared to last year, officials said, as the allies seek to better counter North Korea’s increasing nuclear and missile threats.
The Freedom Shield exercises, set for March 4-14, come as North Korea continues to develop its nuclear capabilities with missile and other weapons tests. It will also be first since Pyongyang scrapped a 2018 inter-Korean military pact in November.
The allies’ air forces also began their annual, battalion-level Ssangmae exercises for a five-day run, Seoul’s defence ministry said Monday.
Freedom Shield will involve twice the number of troops from both sides compared with last year in 48 rounds of combined field training, including air assault and air strikes, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
The exercises are primarily aimed at neutralising North Korea’s nuclear threats, including by “identifying and striking” cruise missiles, which Pyongyang had indicated could carry nuclear warheads, JCS spokesperson Colonel Lee Sung-jun said.
A nuclear attack scenario will be integrated into summertime drills, he added.
American strategic assets such as an aircraft carrier and bombers could participate, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said. U.S. Forces Korea said such assets will likely be deployed in line with past practices but declined to elaborate citing security protocol.
“Strategic” is a term often used to describe nuclear forces.
Pyongyang has angrily reacted to the allies’ drills, calling them rehearsals for a nuclear war. Seoul and Washington say the exercises are defensive and a response to the North’s threats. (Source: Reuters)
01 Mar 24. SA Dept of Defence responds to DR Congo deployment criticism. South African Department of Defence Head of Communication (HoC) Siphiwe Dlamini notes in an opinion piece that the deployment of a SA National Defence Force (SANDF) contingent to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as part of the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) has provided “plenty of grist” to the opinion mill.
This is especially after the subsequent tragic deaths of Captain Simon Bobe and Lance Corporal Irven Semono as result of enemy action.
In the piece published by Johannesburg daily The Citizen, Dlamini writes that these events should provide debate as “we are a democracy, and this is a people’s defence force and its role, and its use, should be debated.”
The 700 plus word piece has it “there are major and justifiable concerns about budget implications” including the lack of sufficient air cover and that “the deployment might be fatally overstretching the SANDF’s capacity”.
“None of these are new concerns in and of themselves; successive chiefs of the SANDF have raised these precise issues in the past, along with their respective chiefs of service.
“These concerns ignore the reality that this deployment was not done in haste, nor without the requisite planning.
“There have been numerous discussions at the highest echelons of government about the need to support the SANDF in all its needs, including funding.
“There is a real commitment to do this. We should also not forget three critical points in the current discourse, well intentioned or otherwise, about the SANDF.
“The first is that the mission in the DRC is not solely a South African tasking but a request from the greater Southern African Development Community to ensure the stability of the region as the United Nations began its well-publicized drawdown of Monusco, its 20 year-long mission to stabilize the DRC, in December last year.
“Secondly, there are other countries who will be contributing too to this mission, some of whom will be able to directly address the issue of air cover through the capabilities of their own air forces.
“Thirdly, the South African National Defence Force has been part of Monusco since its inception, commanding the mission and regularly providing commanders for the smaller three battalion strong multinational Force Intervention Brigade, the only UN force mandated to use force offensively.
“The biggest issue of all though is peacekeeping. SA is a continental leader and has never shied away from the often onerous responsibility to lead these processes, participating from the front, if necessary, putting its money and its troops where its mouth is.
“This is not an easy decision and it is not without risks, all of which weigh very heavily upon our Commander-in-Chief, President Cyril Ramaphosa; the political head; Defence and Military Veterans Minister Thandi Modise; and chief of the SANDF, General Rudzani Maphwanya, before deploying these national assets.
“These soldiers are not conscripts, they are volunteers, but all of us know the risks that they will face in the field – and the sacrifices they may well be asked to make – to keep this peace.
“It is easy for the keyboard warriors to argue that our horizons should be limited to our land, sea and air borders, but the reality is that the beating of a butterfly’s wings in Kivu or Goma could very well create an unstoppable tsunami in Johannesburg or Cape Town.
“It’s too late to deal with an insurgency not just on your doorstep but within your borders. This is part of the rationale for the SANDF’s participation in the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) to keep the insurgency in Cabo Delgado at bay.
“That is the apex threat – of war and terror in our cities and countryside, but there are other threats, too, of even more refugees seeking a better life in SA, potential economic and criminal risks which put further strain on our law enforcement agencies, the home affairs department, the department of social security and, indeed, our fiscus.
“It is said that a stitch in time saves nine. It doesn’t help to just create non-porous borders, where the SANDF is already performing a yeoman and unheralded service as part of the ongoing Operation Corona.
“We have to try to resolve issues and create the conditions that are crucial to allowing a sustainable and enduring state of peace on the continent that could otherwise threaten the way of life we aspire to, even though they are not our direct neighbours.
“It is this philosophy that has guided the SANDF ever since the days of our first Commander-in-Chief Nelson Mandela, when he worked tirelessly to bring peace to the Great Lakes Region.”
Dlamini wrote that South Africa provided the first force commander, Lieutenant General Derrick Mgwebi, to the special United Nations peacekeeping force that was created for Burundi. Mgwebi would go on to command Monusco. “But it is not only the UN operations to which we have contributed troops, materiel, and combat. We have also been very involved with African Union and regional peacekeeping initiatives, from the Comoros to Ethiopia, Eritrea, Lesotho, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Sudan, and Uganda over above Burundi and the DRC.
“This latest deployment is in the same vein; indeed, it is in keeping with the broader aim of South Africa’s foreign policy position of ‘contributing to the creation of a better Africa and the World’. It is also aligned to the African Union’s desire to create an African capacity to bring about African solutions to African problems rather than having to rely upon the largesse of international agencies, which invariably have other issues to contend with than the problems that are our lived reality. The president, our commander-in-chief, has authorized the deployment of these members of the SANDF from December 15 last year to December 15 this year. It is a tough assignment, it is one that is perilous and difficult, but it is a vital mission.
“The question we should be asking is not why our soldiers are serving in these far-flung fields, but how best we can support them; how best they can be equipped and trained so that they all come back at their end of service, proud and whole, the mission accomplished. The answer to that question lies in the budgetary allocation process.
“South Africa continues to ask more and more of its men and women in uniform. It is only right that the nation meets that demand with a willingness to fulfil its soldiers’ needs by contributing to the privilege of having the defence force it expects,” Dlamini concluded.
Time to stop living on hopes and promises
Responding to Dlamini’s editorial, African Defence Review Director Darren Olivier said the piece was “interesting,” but “I take issue with certain aspects. I also don’t think anyone is claiming no planning was done, but that the planning is inadequate for the level of risk.”
With regard to the need for more SANDF fund, Olivier said we have been hearing this for years. The much-heralded 2015 Defence Review even had a staged plan for budget increases that was accepted by Cabinet and Parliament, but the actual result was a reduction in defence spending. Similarly, last month’s budget shows no progress.
“At some point it’s time to stop living on hopes and promises and ask for either a concrete plan and commitment for more defence spending. Or, failing that, a formal acknowledgement that it’s not going to happen in the near future, and a plan to downsize the SANDF and its mandate.
As for Dlamini’s assertion that other SAMIDRC contributors would be able to provide much-needed air support, “It would be nice if this could be confirmed, but none of the information that has emerged so far about SAMIDRC, including the order of battle, shows any air support contributed by Tanzania or Malawi, or any other SADC member.”
While Olivier agrees that the situation in the DRC needs to be brought under control for the benefit of South Africa and the continent, “it’s not a reason to deploy a force without the necessary support, equipment, and clear-enough mission objectives to ensure a reasonable chance of success and a manageable risk level. The idea is not to avoid risk altogether, but to find the right balance.
“Because SA has allowed so many SANDF capabilities to deteriorate through persistent underfunding and overcommitment, the country has to accept no longer having the same freedom of action. The SANDF is smaller and less capable than it was 10 years ago. That’s not because the sailors, soldiers, aircrew, etc. are worse, but because that’s what inevitably happens when you cut defence budgets and shrink personnel numbers. Many other countries have gone through the same.
“As a country, South Africa has decided that defence is not something it wants to dedicate more than 0.7% of its GDP to. That’s okay, it’s a choice like any other, and perhaps the money was better spent elsewhere. But it has consequences and carries real risks, which can’t be ignored,” Olivier concluded. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
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