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22 Feb 24. Debris from North Korean missile in Ukraine could expose procurement networks. Revelations that a North Korean missile fired by Russia in Ukraine contained a large number of components linked to U.S.-based companies underline the difficulty of enforcing sanctions against Pyongyang, but could help uncover illicit procurement networks, experts say.
Conflict Armament Research (CAR), a UK-based organization that tracks the origins of weapons used in conflicts, examined the remnants of a North Korean ballistic missile used by Russia against Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv on Jan. 2.
In a report released this week, it said it examined electronic components, including for the missile’s navigation system, and found many were recently manufactured and bore the marks of companies based in the United States.
It said 75% of the components documented were “linked to companies incorporated in the United States,” 16% to companies in Europe, and 11% to companies in Asia.
Date codes on the components indicated more than three quarters were produced between 2021 and 2023 and that the missile could not have been assembled before March last year, the report said.
Sanctions experts said the findings were not surprising even though for years the United States has led international efforts to restrict North Korea’s ability to obtain parts and funding for its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs.
CAR said its findings showed both how difficult it is to control the export of commercial electronic components, and how reliant countries such as North Korea, Russia and Iran are on imported technology.
“North Korea (and Russia and Iran) are experts in avoiding U.N. and U.S. sanctions through front companies and other efforts,” said Anthony Ruggiero of Washington’s Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, who directed North Korea sanctions efforts in the Trump administration.
“While U.S. sanctions are robust on paper, sanctions must be enforced to be effective,” he said, stressing the need for Washington and it allies to continually update sanctions lists and spend on enforcement.
“We are not doing either one on North Korea sanctions,” he said, adding that the Biden administration particularly needed to do more to target Chinese companies, individuals, and banks aiding sanctions evasion.
CAR said it was working with industry to trace the missile components and identify the entities responsible for their diversion to North Korea, so would not identify the companies linked to their production. It also did not identify specific components.
Martyn Williams of 38 North, a Washington-based North Korea project, said many components made by U.S. firms were easily available online or from electronics markets around the world.
“That North Korea can get these is not surprising at all, and I don’t think anyone imagined the sanctions regime would be able to stop the flow of common components,” he said.
“There are however much more specialized components in missiles and some of those are not a click away on the internet. Those are also the type of thing that sanctions are meant to stop, so the presence of more specialized components would be more worrying.”
Katsu Furukawa, a former member of the U.N. Panel of Experts in charge of monitoring U.N. sanctions against North Korea, said the bulk of the components shown in a photo in the CAR report appeared to be widely available commercial items.
However in past U.N. investigations, he said, there were usually a few specific items such as pressure transmitters and flight control computers that enabled investigators to track procurement routes and identify the perpetrators.
38 North director Jenny Town said such specialized items could only be obtained from a small number of vendors and should have more of a procurement paper trail.
The U.S. State Department said Washington uses export controls, sanctions, and law enforcement actions to prevent North Korea acquiring technology for its weapons programs and to prevent Russia acquiring such weapons.
“We work closely with the U.S. private sector, as well as foreign allied and partner states, in these efforts,” a spokesperson said. (Source: Reuters)
21 Feb 24. Malaysia is becoming wary of its Russian-made weapons.
With the allure of Russian weapons waning in the shadow of the Ukraine war, Malaysia is considering pivoting to other Asian suppliers while also attempting to build a local industry.
Malaysia’s defense capabilities have historically been highly dependent on foreign suppliers, and Russia has been among Kuala Lumpur’s main dealers in the aerospace sector.
This appears to be changing, as the Russian-made aircraft the country operates are now facing a number of shortcomings. In 2017, Malaysia retired from service its MiG-29 fighter aircraft and has also struggled to keep its Su-30MKM ground-attack aircraft operational.
At the Singapore Airshow here, a Malaysian Air Force jet, a Moscow-supplied Su-30, was one of the only visible displays of military equipment made in Russia. At some point in the future, there may be next to none at all left flying, according to the plane’s pilot, who asked to remain unnamed for security reasons.
The West’s sanctions against Russia represent one of the key reasons why the government is looking to buy elsewhere, the pilot told Defense News.
Bans placed on Moscow after its troops invaded Ukraine are preventing Malaysia from buying the Su-30 directly from the Kremlin, implying that existing stocks of spare ones could run out, an analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies found.
One of the countries attempting to jump into the business is South Korea, which signed a contract last year to provide 18 Korean-made FA-50 fighter jets to Malaysia.
On Jan. 27, South Korea and Malaysia also held defense talks in Seoul to discuss boosting bilateral security partnerships and joint drills.
Malaysia has also launched a renewed effort at building up its own defense industrial base. With the launch of the Malaysian Aerospace Industry Blueprint 2030, and an increase in its defense budget, the country is looking to position itself as Southeast Asia’s strongest aerospace market.
A report published this year by the U.S. International Trade Administration highlighted that the Malaysian government “hopes to strengthen domestic manufacturing capabilities of defense products through collaboration and technology transfer.”
Malaysia is home to over 200 aerospace companies, including both international and local industry actors, the report noted.(Source: glstrade.com/Defense News)
22 Feb 24. The UK supports full implementation of the peace agreement in Colombia and calls for security guarantees for former combatants: UK statement at the UN Security Council.
Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward at the UN Security Council meeting on Colombia.
Thank you, President, and let me echo your appreciation to the Government of Colombia, the UN Secretariat, the United Nations Verification Mission lead by SRSG Ruiz Massieu and to all the interlocutors we engaged with in Columbia.
I’d also like to thank my co-leads Guyana Presidency and Switzerland for their close cooperation throughout the visit. And I’ll reflect upon the sessions led by the United Kingdom.
In Bogota, the Security Council heard firm commitment as you said President, to the 2016 Peace Agreement and the importance of security guarantees for former combatants from Government entities in charge of peace implementation.
The Council also met with the High Commissioner for Peace, Otty Patiño, to discuss the Government’s vision to broaden peace through dialogue. It was an opportune moment to discuss the ELN process given the recent ceasefire extension, which we mandated the Mission to monitor. The Council discussed the dialogue with the EMC which we’ve indicated a willingness to consider mandating the UN to support.
The High Commissioner shared his vision of territorial transformation, extending the state’s presence in rural areas which you referred to, and the importance of peace delivering benefits such as schools, healthcare, and infrastructure. The Council welcomed efforts to strengthen the humanitarian provisions of the ceasefires and encouraged further steps to alleviate the suffering of the civilian population.
In our meeting with the signatories to the Peace Agreement in Agua Bonita, we welcomed their unwavering commitment to peace and also we met them in Bogota. The signatories called on the Government to accelerate the implementation of the Agreement including by appointing an entity at the highest level to coordinate efforts.
The Council shared concern about former combatants’ insecurity and the 418 former combatants killed since the signing of the Agreement. We encouraged the Government to accelerate efforts to develop rapid protection plans.
As you mentioned President, we also went to Buenaventura, and just to add to what you said, I think it’s worth saying that five years ago, the Council was unable to meet a female community leader because of fears for her security, and this time that very same leader – who is now the Vice President – accompanied us to her region, which I think shows the extent of the transformation underway in Colombia.
This was an opportunity as you said President, for Council members to focus on the Ethnic Chapter and to hear first-hand from those whose daily work focuses on building peace at local levels. And the Council also heard from youth representatives to understand their daily reality and their calls for educational and economic opportunities.
As you said President, everywhere we saw the UN Verification Mission, UN agencies, Colombian Government, communities, and individuals working together to build sustainable peace. Peace is not an abstract concept – it’s a real social cause which is a whole of society effort.
Thank you.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
22 Feb 24. Russia’s maxed-out arms makers face labor, tech shortages. As Russian arms makers are fulfilling government orders at a record rate, they are bracing for a shortage in skilled labor and high-tech manufacturing components that belie the image of a defense-industrial juggernaut, according to analysts.
The projection comes amid a demographic crisis of an aging population, factors that run counter to the government’s trumpeting of expanded weapons production and construction of new plants while the war against Ukraine enters its third year.
According to the former deputy prime minister and head of Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov, the entire Russian defense industry will lack 400,000 workers in the near future.
Irina Sokolova, a specialist at a Moscow recruitment agency who asked that her employer not be revealed, said there are fewer incentives available to fill the ranks. “In 2022-23, the Russian defense industry attracted almost the entire possible personnel reserve by increasing salaries,” she told Defense News. “It is becoming more difficult to recruit specialists, unemployment in Russia is only about 3%. Defense companies are already enticing personnel from each other.”
Firms have tried to increase cooperation with universities and technical schools to prime the personnel pump, according to aerospace industry analyst Vasily Brevnov. But finding management staff adept at navigating the pressure of the Ukraine war is another story.
“With the beginning of a special military operation, many heads of defense industry enterprises were not ready to work in the new realities,” Brevnov told Defense News, using the government-prescribed parlance for the war. “In some cases, drastic personnel decisions were needed.”
For example, business leaders were unfamiliar with available subsidies and credit opportunities or were unable to find alternative suppliers in the wake of Western sanctions, he said.
Managers were also used to running their businesses without paying attention to the needs of their engineers, according to Sergey Smyslov, an independent defense industry analyst. In addition, according to Russian media, the courts are considering the cases of former heads of various defense companies who are accused of fraud, embezzlement and abuse of authority.
Finally, the government’s legislative and regulatory framework is slowing down many production processes, increasing time, costs and hindering technological solutions, analysts interviewed for this article said.
The sanctions squeeze has especially hit those industries in which Russia has long relied on Ukrainian products or established channels for obtaining Western components, according to Brevnov and Pavel Luzin, of the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank. Affected industries include aviation, space, shipbuilding and machine tool construction.
Scrounging for parts
While high-end radar components may now be hard to source for Russian arms makers, there is a large market of old but hardy parts that is nearly impossible to regulate, according to Michael Jerdev, a Russian aviation expert.
“If you look at the database of electronic components found in Russian weapons by Ukrainians, you can see a great conservatism in the use of electronic components in military equipment,” he said. “The mass of electronic component samples is literally 25 years old, massive and saturated in the secondary market, which is almost impossible to control with sanctions,” said Jerdev.
Crucial equipment has continued to make its way to Russia since the beginning of the war – or has been there all along. Kirill Sypalo, general director of the Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute, said in November 2022 that imported machine tools made up the vast majority of equipment in his organization, with producers hailing from Germany, Sweden, Israel.
In total, foreign manufacturers accounted for up to 50% of the electronic components used in rocket and space technology systems and up to 70% in satellite production, an engineer at the state-owned enterprise Russian Space Systems told Defense News, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning assumptions.
“New sanctions in electronics lead to the suspension or significant postponement of the launch dates of various spacecraft,” said Vitaly Egorov, an independent expert on the Russian space industry. “Roscosmos itself or the Russian industry is not able to create a full-fledged replacement, and all the hopes of Russian cosmonautics are connected either with China or with parallel imports, that is, essentially gray schemes to circumvent sanctions, but this leads to significant losses of time and money.”
Heavily dependent on foreign parts, Russian naval shipbuilders are now looking to source components from manufacturers in China, India, or Iran through shadow import schemes, a leading researcher at the state-owned enterprise Kant, who asked that their name not be revealed, told Defense News.
Alexey Migalin, CEO of marine equipment seller NavMarin, said in an interview with Kommersant newspaper that radars, satellite-based navigation receivers and related devices are manufactured in Russia but based on Chinese technology.
China to the rescue?
At the Neva 2023 International Exhibition and Conference in St. Petersburg, the head of the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping (RMRS), Petr Vanyukov, said that 60 of his employees are embedded all over China to scout equipment that officials hope could replace the entire ecosystem of sanctioned, Western technology.
In September 2023, at a meeting of the Council of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Konstantin Babkin, president of the Rosspetsmash Association, said there is practically no production of hydraulics components, needed for making tanks, in Russia. Similarly, local makers of bearings and electronic parts can only produce up to 25% of the required volume, he added.
At the same time, it is not profitable to produce those parts in Russia, Babkin said, adding that the tax burden in China is lower and loans are cheaper.
That explains why many experts interviewed for this article said that scheme of import substitution is still weak. The head of Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, stated in a June 2022 article for RBC that “replacing everything is pointless, economically inexpedient and simply impossible.”
In a study by the Russian Higher School of Economics, more than 60% of executives polled said they are confident that within two to three years they will only partially be able to forego using foreign equipment, technologies and raw materials.
Machine tools play a crucial role in the production of numerous types of weapons and military equipment. Even before Russia’s invasion in 2022, the country’s machine tool industry had been in crisis for a long time.
Last year, the government approved a program to provide loans to machine tool builders at an interest rate of 1% per year. The government plans to inject 300 bn rubles ($3.2 bn) into the industry by 2030. Rostec aims to reduce the import of machine tools by half.
In an effort to obtain foreign components and technologies, Russian metalworking company Stankomashstroy plans to open a machine tool factory in China.
But Asian-made machines are considered to be of lesser quality. Mikhail Prokopyev, an expert on robotics at SofPol, speaking at the Russian Industrial Week event held in Moscow in October, said that Chinese equipment is usually less durable and less precise than Japanese and European equipment.
Parallel imports and smuggling are also used by Russia. According to Russian independent investigative journalists from The Insider, there are examples when a private foreign company purchased microchips from Analog Devices or Texas Instruments, both U.S. companies, and resold them to a Russian private importing company.
Russian officials are hedging against the semiconductor flow drying off completely. Analysts have observed large-scale import activity of equipment from China, amounting to a future repository that could serve production needs for one to two years, said Luzin, the CEPA analyst.
All told, the Russian defense industry, while firing on all cylinders, is behind the technology curve as Chinese substitutions turn out to be lackluster. As a result, it is easier for Russian industry to reproduce old Soviet models of equipment, rather than create technically more complex Armata tanks and Su-57 aircraft, Luzin explained.
(Source: glstrade.com/Defense News)
21 Feb 24. INDUS-X Summit Convenes in New Delhi, India. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and Indian Ministry of Defense (MoD) participated in the second India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X) Summit today in New Delhi, India.
Speakers at the INDUS-X Summit explored opportunities to co-produce advanced military capabilities, create resilient defense supply chains, and enhance U.S.-India military interoperability in support of both countries’ shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Panel participants expanded on several themes inspired by the original INDUS-X collaboration agenda: deepening defense industrial partnerships, increasing collaborative research and testing facility access, mobilizing private capital to support critical defense technologies, and commercializing dual-use technologies. The governments also led a hybrid information session on export controls for U.S. and Indian defense start-ups that aim to form partnerships and co-develop technology.
The summit included announcements on priority efforts under INDUS-X including joint challenges. The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and Innovations for Defense Excellence (iDEX) announced the winners of the first two INDUS-X joint challenges, in which companies compete to develop technologies that solve military problems for the DoD and MoD. Following a competitive process supported by military service partners and both governments, ten U.S. and Indian companies won over $1 m to develop technologies related to undersea communications and maritime intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). At the Summit, DIU and iDEX also announced that they will open applications for two joint challenges focused on space-based ISR in the coming months.
At the Summit, U.S. companies, universities, and nonprofit organizations announced a new consortium committed to expanding testing facility access. The consortium will explore pathways for defense and dual-use companies in the INDUS-X network to test, refine, and integrate their technologies at premier testing ranges across the U.S. and India.
The Summit featured a meeting of two advisory bodies under INDUS-X. First, U.S. and Indian officials convened for the second meeting of the bilateral Senior Advisory Group, which guides future cooperation under the initiative. Second, the U.S. Institute of Peace moderated the inaugural meeting of the INDUS-X Senior Leaders Forum, comprised of U.S. and Indian leaders across industry, private equity, academia, and other sectors who convene to share feedback that informs the trajectory of INDUS-X.
The U.S.-India Business Council (USIBC) and the Society of Indian Defense Manufacturers (SIDM) organized the Summit, which convened U.S. and Indian defense companies, investors, researchers, and government officials.
The Department and Ministry launched the bilateral initiative INDUS-X in June 2023 to spur defense innovation in critical technologies by facilitating partnerships among U.S. and Indian companies, investors, and universities. INDUS-X is the innovation bridge envisioned by the U.S. and Indian national security advisors under the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET).
The DoD and MoD have released an INDUS-X Fact Sheet to outline both the initiative’s progress to date and priority near-term efforts. (Source: U.S. DoD)
21 Feb 24. Somalia makes deal with Turkey to bolster naval force. Somalia announced on Wednesday a defense deal with Turkey that includes support for the Horn of Africa nation’s sea assets and appears aimed at deterring Ethiopia’s efforts to secure access to the sea by way of the breakaway region of Somaliland. Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on Jan. 1. The document has rattled Somalia, which said it’s prepared to go to war over it because it considers Somaliland part of its territory. Somaliland says Ethiopia agreed to recognize its independence in return for a naval port.
Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre described the defense and economic deal with Turkey as “a historic day for the country,” after the council of ministers approved it.
“Somalia will have a true ally, a friend and a brother in the international arena,” he said.
Details of that agreement have not been made public, but Somalia sees such a deal as an act of aggression, even though Somaliland has enjoyed de facto independence for three decades.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told reporters Saturday that senior officers from Ethiopia’s military were in Somaliland “preparing the ground” for the territory’s annexation.
Ethiopia has not addressed the allegations, but Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has downplayed fear of conflict, telling lawmakers earlier this month he had “no intention” of going to war with Somalia. With a population of more than 120m, Ethiopia is the most populous landlocked country in the world.
Turkey is a key player in Somalia, one of several Gulf Arab states jockeying for influence in a country that lies on the shores of the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden — a pathway to the Red Sea.
Under the deal announced Wednesday, Turkey will provide training and equipment to the Somali Navy so it can better safeguard its territorial waters from threats such as terrorism, piracy and “foreign interference.”
The deal, first signed by the two countries’ defense ministers on Feb. 8, will be in force for a decade, according to Somali authorities.
“For Somalia, it offers crucial support for security and development initiatives, while for Turkey, it represents an opportunity to expand its influence and deepen its engagement in Africa,” said Mohamed Gaas, an analyst who leads the think tank Raad Peace Research Institute in Mogadishu, the Somali capital. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
21 Feb 24. Russia Rebrands Wagner PMC With Plan To Access African Natural Resources. Russia is actively offering a “regime survival package” to African governments in exchange for access to crucial natural resources, as detailed in a comprehensive report covered by the BBC. This initiative involves altering mining laws in West Africa, aiming to oust Western companies from regions of strategic importance, and is part of Russia’s broader strategy to assert its influence in Africa following the disbandment of the Wagner mercenary group in June 2023. The operations, worth bns of dollars, have transitioned to being managed by the Russian “Expeditionary Corps,” under the leadership of an individual implicated in the Sergei Skripal assassination attempt, reflecting a more overt stance in Russia’s Africa policy.
This move comes after Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner Group’s leader, died in a suspicious plane crash shortly after leading a failed coup, which was seen as a direct challenge to President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin decided to place Wagner’s Africa operations under the control of Russian military intelligence, the GRU, marking a significant shift in how Russia conducts its operations on the continent. The GRU’s approach focuses not on destabilizing governments but on ensuring their continuity through strategic partnerships, in exchange for mineral rights. This has led to engagements with various African leaders, ensuring the continuity of Wagner’s deals and deepening military cooperation, including the training of officers and pilots in Russia.
In the context of these developments, Russia’s strategy has also involved redefining security relationships in countries like Mali, where it has replaced Western security operations with Russian-backed military support. This change aligns with a broader Russian effort to supplant Western influence in Africa and the Middle East by leveraging economic ties and security assistance to create a “sanction-proof” network of alliances, as analyzed in a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The report emphasizes Russia’s aggressive pursuit of expanding its partnerships in Africa, capitalizing on the West’s strategic neglect and addressing frustrations with Western policies in these regions. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
21 Feb 24. Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles. Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters, deepening the military cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries.
Iran’s provision of around 400 missiles includes many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, three Iranian sources said. This road-mobile missile is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 300 and 700 km (186 and 435 miles), experts say.
Iran’s defence ministry and the Revolutionary Guards – an elite force that oversees Iran’s ballistic missile programme – declined to comment. Russia’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The shipments began in early January after a deal was finalised in meetings late last year between Iranian and Russian military and security officials that took place in Tehran and Moscow, one of the Iranian sources said.
An Iranian military official – who, like the other sources, asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information – said there had been at least four shipments of missiles and there would be more in the coming weeks. He declined to provide further details.
Another senior Iranian official said some of the missiles were sent to Russia by ship via the Caspian Sea, while others were transported by plane.
“There will be more shipments,” the second Iranian official said. “There is no reason to hide it. We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to.”
U.N. Security Council restrictions on Iran’s export of some missiles, drones and other technologies expired in October. However, the United States and European Union retained sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme amid concerns over exports of weapons to its proxies in the Middle East and to Russia.
A fourth source, familiar with the matter, confirmed that Russia had received a large number of missiles from Iran recently, without providing further details.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said in early January the United States was concerned that Russia was close to acquiring short-range ballistic weapons from Iran, in addition to missiles already sourced from North Korea.
A U.S. official told Reuters that Washington had seen evidence of talks actively advancing but no indication yet of deliveries having taken place.
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the missile deliveries.
Ukraine’s top prosecutor said on Friday the ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea to Russia had proven unreliable on the battlefield, with only two of 24 hitting their targets. Moscow and Pyongyang have both denied that North Korea has provided Russia with munitions used in Ukraine.
By contrast, Jeffrey Lewis, an expert with the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said the Fateh-110 family of missiles and the Zolfaghar were precision weapons.
“They are used to point at things that are high value and need precise damage,” said Lewis, adding that 400 munitions could inflict considerable harm if used in Ukraine. He noted, however, that Russian bombardments were already “pretty brutal”.
U.S. AID DELAY WEAKENS UKRAINE’S DEFENCES
A Ukrainian military source told Reuters that Kyiv had not registered any use of Iranian ballistic missiles by Russian forces in the conflict. The Ukrainian defence ministry did not immediately reply to Reuters’ request for comment.
Following the publication of this story, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force told national television that it had no official information on Russia obtaining such missiles. He said that ballistic missiles would pose a serious threat to Ukraine.
Former Ukrainian defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said that Russia wanted to supplement its missile arsenal at a time when delays in approving a major package of U.S. military aid in Congress has left Ukraine short of ammunition and other material.
“The lack of U.S. support means shortages of ground-based air defence in Ukraine. So they want to accumulate a mass of rockets and break through Ukrainian air defence,” said Zagorodnyuk, who chairs the Kyiv-based Centre for Defence Strategies, a security think tank, and advises the government.
Kyiv has repeatedly asked Tehran to stop supplying Shahed drones to Russia, which have become a staple of Moscow’s long-range assaults on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, alongside an array of missiles.
Ukraine’s air force said in December that Russia had launched 3,700 Shahed drones during the war, which can fly hundreds of kilometres and explode on impact. Ukrainians call them “mopeds” because of the distinctive sound of their engines; air defences down dozens of them each week.
Iran initially denied supplying drones to Russia but months later said it had provided a small number before Moscow launched the war on Ukraine in 2022.
“Those who accuse Iran of providing weapons to one of the sides in the Ukraine war are doing so for political purposes,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said on Monday, when asked about Tehran’s delivery of drones to Russia. “We have not given any drones to take part in that war.”
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based think tank, said a supply of Fateh-100 and Zolfaghar missiles from Iran would hand Russia an even greater advantage on the battlefield.
“They could be used to strike military targets at operational depths, and ballistic missiles are more difficult for Ukrainian air defences to intercept,” Lee said.
DEEPENING TIES WITH MOSCOW
Iran’s hardline clerical rulers have steadily sought to deepen ties with Russia and China, betting that would help Tehran to resist U.S. sanctions and to end its political isolation.
Defence cooperation between Iran and Russia has intensified since Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022.
Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu met the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, Amirali Hajizadeh, in Tehran in September, when Iran’s drones, missiles and air defence systems were displayed for him, Iranian state media reported.
And last month, Russia’s foreign ministry said it expected President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi to sign a broad new cooperation treaty soon, following talks in Moscow in December.
“This military partnership with Russia has shown the world Iran’s defence capabilities,” said the military official. “It does not mean we are taking sides with Russia in the Ukraine conflict.”
The stakes are high for Iran’s clerical rulers amid the war between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas that erupted after Oct. 7. They also face growing dissent at home over economic woes and social restrictions.
While Tehran tries to avoid a direct confrontation with Israel that could draw in the United States, its Axis of Resistance allies – including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen – have attacked Israeli and U.S. targets.
A Western diplomat briefed on the matter confirmed the delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia in the recent weeks, without providing more details.
He said Western nations were concerned that Russia’s reciprocal transfer of weapons to Iran could strengthen its position in any possible conflict with the United States and Israel.
Iran said in November it had finalised arrangements for Russia to provide it with Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters and Yak-130 pilot training aircraft.
Analyst Gregory Brew at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said Russia is an ally of convenience for Iran.
“The relationship is transactional: in exchange for drones, Iran expects more security cooperation and advanced weaponry, particularly modern aircraft,” he said. (Source: Reuters)
21 Feb 24. Armenia: Efforts to normalise relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey will drive nationalist unrest risks. On 20 February, hundreds of protesters gathered at Freedom Square in the capital Yerevan to call for the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The nationalist Together movement organised the protests to coincide with the 36th anniversary of the Karabakh movement, which later transformed into the Pan-Armenian National Movement (a prominent Armenian nationalist party that was dissolved in 2013). Protesters accuse Pashinyan of making unacceptable concessions to Azerbaijan and Turkey; we assess that such accusations are partly linked to Pashinyan’s recent proposal to adopt a new constitution amid wider efforts to lower regional tensions. Pashinyan previously opposed constitutional provisions that implicitly support the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and denounce Turkey’s role in what many believe amounted to an Armenian genocide in 1915. The protests illustrate growing frustration among Armenian nationalists over the government’s efforts to normalise relations with Ankara and Baku. Ultimately, we assess that efforts to lower regional tensions will exacerbate domestic political polarisation and anti-government sentiment, driving nationalist unrest risks. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Feb 24. Belarus: Destabilisation claims will highly likely lead to increased repression before election. On 20 February, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed that the West and Belarus’ exiled opposition will try to destabilise the country during its election period. Belarus will hold parliamentary and local elections on 25 February. The event will mark the first vote(s) in Belarus since 2020, when Lukashenka declared a landslide victory that triggered mass protests. Lukashenka has also urged the police to organise patrol units armed with pistols (at a minimum) in urban centres so as to better protect citizens against ‘extremist’ crimes. Lukashenka claimed that the authorities have taken unspecified additional measures to solve such ‘crimes’ promptly. The authorities typically exploit accusations of ‘extremism’ to target dissidents and the political opposition; Belarusian courts tried over 1,300 ‘extremism’ cases in 2023, according to official figures. As such, we assess that Lukashenka’s comments are almost certainly aimed at further curtailing dissent through intimidation so as to minimise domestic unrest and government stability risks during the vote. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Feb 24. Iraq: Intra-Shia violence will likely elevate security risks in Babylon, Najaf in coming weeks. On 20 February, gunmen attacked a Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) office in Hilla (Babylon governorate) using an RPG7 rocket. No casualties were reported. The attack comes 48 hours after a bomb was detonated at an office affiliated with Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH, part of the PMF) in al-Najaf (Najaf governorate). The attacks mark the latest uptick in intra-Shia clandestine violence after the assassination of a Saraya al-Salam (SAS) officer, Ayser al-Khafaji, in Babylon on 18 February. SAS is the military wing of the Sadrist movement. While no group claimed responsibility for any of the attacks, we assess there is a realistic possibility that both rival Shia paramilitaries were involved. Members of both factions have been conducting street patrols in Babylon and Najaf this week. We assess that the security forces will likely augment their posture in the coming weeks and throughout Ramadan (10 March-8 April) in both governorates, including by setting up security cordons near the headquarters of rival Shia paramilitaries. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Feb 24. Australia: Regional tensions will likely rise amid plans to increase naval force projection. On 20 February, Australia announced plans to expand the number of its major surface combatant ships from 11 to 26 and to boost defence spending by more than USD 7 bn. Defence Minister Richard Marles stated that Australia will construct its largest fleet since the end of the Second World War. Some ships will reportedly be equipped with US-built Tomahawk missiles, giving the navy a long-range strike capacity; this will constitute a major deterrent. The build-up is projected to be completed by the 2040s. The announcement comes amid a broader attempt by Australia to expand its forward posture and naval presence in the Indo-Pacific region. In 2021, Canberra agreed to join AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership with the UK and the US, a move which involved Australia purchasing nuclear-powered submarines. The increase in Australian military spending appears to be in response to growing Chinese military assertiveness in the region, including in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. We assess that further naval co-operation with the US will likely drive tensions between Australia and China in the long term. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Feb 24. Taiwan-US: Delegation visit will raise cross-strait tensions, but is unlikely to prompt major escalation. Earlier on 22 February, US Representative Mike Gallagher, chair of the House Select Committee on China, arrived in Taiwan with a bipartisan delegation. His visit aims to signal congressional support for Taiwan, regardless of the outcome of the US election in November. The delegation also aims to discuss deepening US-Taiwan partnerships and to highlight the US’ commitment to ensuring Taiwan’s defence capabilities. The US State Department recently approved a prospective USD 75 m sale of the Link 16 communications system to Taiwan, marking the 13th defence transaction between the US and Taiwan under President Joe Biden’s tenure and the first deal struck since Taiwan’s January election. However, substantial delays continue to impact armament deliveries for Taiwan. The delegation will meet Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-te, President Tsai Ing-wen and Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu. We assess that this will likely provoke aggressive rhetoric from China and a temporary increase in military activity around Taiwan. However, a recent stabilisation in China-US relations suggests that China is unlikely to replicate its aggressive military response to the visit of the former US Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, in August 2022. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Feb 24. Non-availability of aircraft delays SA SAMIDRC deployment. South Africa’s commitment to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) did not have an auspicious start – apart from two deaths in an advance party, the non-availability of aircraft meant at least part of the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) deployment did not leave for the central African country as planned.
This was one item in a lengthy presentation to today’s (Thursday, 21 February’s) Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV). The Department of Defence (DoD) presentation covered the third quarter of the current financial year (2023/24, which ends on 31 March). Force employment, “human resource status” along with governance and accountability were part of the 38 slide presentation.
The regional security component of the presentation included Operation Thiba, translated to “block it” from Southern Sotho – the name for the latest SANDF deployment to the DRC. The committee was informed “the SANDF is mobilising the quick reaction force (QRF) and support elements to deploy in the SADC Mission in the DRC [SAMIDRC] in order to support the Government of the DRC in its effort to neutralise the negative forces and illegal armed groups by restoring peace and security in the DRC”.
“The projection of forces,” as per the presentation, “was planned to begin from 15 December 2023, but not realised due to the unavailability of aircraft”.
There is no mention of when and with what troops and equipment will be airlifted to the DRC. Unconfirmed reports have it President Felix Tshisekedi’s government will be responsible for ensuring the arrival of SANDF elements as well as those from Malawi and Tanzania, at this stage the only confirmed troop contributing countries (TCCs) to the fledgling mission. South Africa is contributing 2 900 troops out of a total 5 000 for the force.
Also on the DRC, the PCDMV was informed the SANDF continues its participation in the United Nations (UN) PSO (peace support operation) MONUSCO by way of Operation Mistral. This sees the SANDF as one of three TCCs to the MONUSCO Force Intervention Brigade (FIB) including an SA Army tactical intelligence unit (TIU) and a quick reaction force based in Mavivi as well as an SA Air Force (SAAF) composite helicopter unit (CHU) in Goma. The presentation makes no mention of the SA Military Health Service (SAMHS) deployment, also in Goma.
The only other “regional” deployment listed in the presentation is Operation Vikela, the South African commitment to the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM). It notes quarter three saw the SANDF providing “general military assistance” combatting terrorism and violent extremism. South Africa, along with Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia have been in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado since August 2021 in a deployment set to end by mid-year. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
21 Feb 24. AFRICOM Probes US Airstrike in Somalia Amid Allegations of Cuban Hostage Fatalities. The United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) executed an airstrike near Jilib, southern Somalia, targeting the al-Qaeda-affiliated group al-Shabaab. Following this strike, al-Shabaab claimed that two Cuban doctors, Assel Herrera and Landy Rodriguez, who had been kidnapped by the group in April 2019 from Mandera County, Kenya, were killed. This assertion by al-Shabaab was communicated through a statement relayed by the SITE Intelligence Group, marking the first time the group has acknowledged holding the two Cubans captive.
In response to these claims, AFRICOM has stated it is assessing the results of the operation and has acknowledged the reports of civilian casualties, emphasizing a commitment to investigate these allegations thoroughly. A US defense official noted the absence of credible evidence of civilian casualties but affirmed the serious approach taken towards such allegations.
The two Cuban nationals were part of a medical team sent by Cuba to Kenya, aimed at addressing the country’s medical professional shortage through a bilateral agreement. Their abduction and the subsequent killing of a police officer during the incident highlighted the risks faced by foreign medical staff in conflict-affected regions.
AFRICOM’s operations in Somalia, including this recent airstrike, are part of broader US efforts to support the Somali government in its fight against al-Shabaab. The US has a limited military presence in the country, focusing on airstrikes against militant targets and training Somali military forces.
AFRICOM has conducted several airstrikes in Somalia in 2024, with this operation being part of ongoing efforts to counter al-Shabaab’s threat in the region. The group’s statement criticizes the US intelligence and operational conduct, framing the strike as evidence of faulty intelligence and operational recklessness. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
19 Feb 24. India boosts indigenous defence capabilities with acquisition drive. The Defence Acquisition Council’s approval signals major investment in India’s Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative.
The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) of India has greenlit a slew of capital acquisition proposals amounting to Rs84,560 crore ($10bn).
The approvals, announced on February 16, 2024, show India’s commitment to self-reliance in defence and highlight a shift towards sourcing technologies from domestic vendors.
The ‘Aatmanirbharta in Defence’ initiative aims to reduce import dependency and foster domestic defence manufacturing capabilities, issuing approximately 350 new industrial licenses over the last seven years. Encouraged by government initiatives, private players are developing defence equipment manufacturing capacity to meet the armed forces’ requirements and address programme delays, cost overruns, and quality issues.
The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has authorised a series of Acceptance of Necessity (AoNs) for a variety of capital acquisition proposals, marking an investment in strengthening the country’s armed forces and coast guard. With a focus on advancing the capabilities of the Armed Forces and the Indian Coast Guard (ICG), the approved proposals encompass a range of equipment and technologies.
In a bid to fortify India’s defence capabilities against evolving threats, the DAC has paved the way for the procurement of new-generation anti-tank mines equipped with seismic sensors and remote deactivation features. Additionally, approvals have been granted for the acquisition of air defence tactical control radar to bolster air defence systems and enhance surveillance capabilities.
Recognising the importance of maritime security, the DAC has sanctioned the procurement of medium-range maritime reconnaissance and multi-mission maritime aircraft aimed at augmenting surveillance and interdiction capabilities across India’s maritime domain. Moreover, measures to enhance the offensive capabilities of naval assets include the procurement of heavy-weight torpedoes for Kalvari Class submarines.
Approvals have also been granted for the acquisition of flight refueller aircraft for the Indian Air Force and software-defined radios for the Indian Coast Guard, facilitating communication and networking capabilities.
Recently, India has looked to boost its Air Force capabilities and promoting self-reliance through two initiatives. Firstly, the government has approved a $4bn deal for the acquisition of 31 MQ-9B remotely piloted aircraft. Additionally, in a move towards bilateral cooperation between Brazil and India, Embraer Defense & Security and Mahindra have joined forces to facilitate the procurement of the C-390 Millennium multi-mission aircraft by the Indian Air Force.
The DAC’s decision to amend the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020 reflects a concerted effort to foster a conducive ecosystem for defence startups and micro, small, and medium enterprises. By streamlining procurement processes and incentivising through schemes like Innovations for Defence Excellence and Technology Development Fund, India aims to create a supportive environment for domestic players and promote ‘Ease of Doing Business’ in the defence sector. (Source: army-technology.com)
20 Feb 24. China Leaks Blueprint for Drone War Dominance. China has revealed an ambitious plan to transform its military operations through the integration of more advanced unmanned systems, a strategic shift toward drone-led special operations in war scenarios including a potential conflict with the US over Taiwan.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported this month that China’s military plans to replace humans with machines in special operations overseas to mitigate the high risks of such missions.
Scientists are working with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to develop unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of flying vast distances, diving deep underwater and lying in wait for long periods, the SCMP report said.
The PLA’s 78092 unit has revealed details about a hypothetical overseas special operations plan published in the Fire Control & Command Control journal, aiming to help Chinese companies, engineers and scientists better understand the military’s needs and strategic goals.
The PLA’s plan says the hypothetical operation is set in 2035 when a small-scale conflict between China and an unnamed neighbouring country occurs, with the caveat that both sides agree to limit their equipment to small arms including small boats, drones and anti-aircraft guns.
In that 2035 scenario, the PLA is tasked with striking swiftly and silently at key enemy installations including critical command and supply hubs deep behind enemy lines.
The UAVs purpose-built for special operations must be capable of operating both alone and in coordinated swarms, flying at extremely low altitudes, navigating obstacles, engaging beyond visual range and pursuing and eliminating enemy forces, the SCMP report said.
It notes that advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems must also allow them to hover over the battlefield after an initial attack, assess the damage and determine whether further action is required. The PLA team took inspiration from US military tactics, the report said.China has been relatively opaque about how it envisions using drones in a potential regional conflict so the Fire Control & Command Control journal article offers a rare glimpse of its drone warfare ambitions and intentions.
In an October 2023 article for the China Aerospace Studies Institute, Emilie Stewart notes that President Xi Jinping, the Chinese defense apparatus and the PLA have stated very little publicly about China’s drone swarm technology, strategy, research and development and how it would potentially use the systems in a conflict.
Stewart points out that most Chinese articles broadly describe drone swarms but do not mention any unique Chinese characteristics that would set the research apart from other drone scholars.
Stewart notes that in those articles drone swarms are defined similarly to the US Air Force definition while emphasizing the broad need for networking connectivity and autonomy.
Stewart also points out that most of those articles feature commentary on US drone swarm capabilities and bombastic reports of China’s capabilities which she says lack substance, meaning China’s reports of its drone capabilities should be taken with a grain of salt.
Nevertheless, China’s drone development may be following two trends. The first, pioneered by the US, focuses on developing long-range, high-end UAVs for strategic reconnaissance and precision strikes far from friendly territories.
US drones developed according to this philosophy include the MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-4 Global Hawk, both relatively expensive systems that are not considered expendable except under certain circumstances. In line with that trend, China has been using drones designed according to that philosophy in the East China Sea.
The second trend in drone development, spurred on by the ongoing Ukraine war, involves mass-producing cheap, expendable, tactical drones using commercial dual-use technology, the polar opposite of the previous trend of developing high-end, expensive drones. This trend is more apparent in China’s drone use in the Himalayas vis-à-vis India.
In a July 2023 report by the Foundation for Strategic Research, Antoine Bondaz and Simon Berthault note that, alongside advanced UAVs such as the CH-4, China has been using smaller tactical UAVs for logistical transport, border surveillance, combat damage assessment, artillery observation, sniper support, mine clearance, search and rescue, and communication support in the Himalayas.
Bondaz and Berthault note that China’s most prevalent drones in the Himalayas are commercial, showing China’s distinctive civil-military integration strategy. (Source: UAS VISION/Asia Times0
19 Feb 24. Singapore sets USD15bn defence budget for 2024. Singapore has announced a defence budget of SGD20.25bn (USD15bn) for 2024. The new expenditure, announced on 16 February, is a 13% increase over the original defence budget for 2023 and a 2.5% increase over the revised allocation of SGD19.76bn. The 2024 defence budget includes SGD19.34bn (95.5% of the total expenditure) for operations, which is a 2.4% increase over the revised allocation in 2023. Nearly all the operations budget in 2024 – SGD19.28bn – is for the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF). Official budgetary documents said the operations expenditure will pay for the purchase of military equipment, maintenance of equipment and facilities, and allowances and salaries for SAF personnel. The remaining 4.5% (SGD905.39m) of the 2024 defence budget is for development expenditure, an increase of 3.9%. Documents said this increase is mainly attributed to higher construction costs for development works, including projects previously delayed or disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic. (Source: Janes)
17 Feb 24. Iran unveils new air defense weaponry as regional tensions ramp up, IRNA reports. Iran unveiled new weaponry on Saturday including what it said was the locally made Arman anti-ballistic missile system and the Azarakhsh low-altitude air defense system, the official IRNA news agency reported. The announcement came amid heightened tensions in the region, with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants carrying out a string of attacks on vessels linked to the U.S., UK and Israel in the Red Sea in a show of solidarity with the Gaza Strip.
Gaza has been under military assault by Israel since Hamas’s attacks on Israel’s south on Oct. 7.
In response to the Houthi attacks, the U.S. has targeted sites inside Yemen as well as facilities of Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria. In turn, U.S. military bases have been attacked in Syria and Iraq. Israel has also struck Iranian targets in Syria.
Saturday’s unveiling ceremony of the two vehicle-mounted systems took place in the presence of Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani.
“With the entry of new systems into the country’s defense network, the air defense capability of the Islamic Republic of Iran will increase significantly,” IRNA said.
It said the Arman missile system “can simultaneously confront six targets at a distance of 120 to 180 km”, while the Azarakhsh missile system “can identify and destroy targets… up to a range of 50 km with four ready-to-fire missiles”.
In June Iran presented what officials described as its first domestically made hypersonic ballistic missile, named Fattah, with a range of 1,400 km. (Source: Google/Reuters)
19 Feb 24. Cuashub.com said today that US Department of State Condemns Congo Drone Attack. In the early hours of Saturday, a suspected drone attack believed to be conducted by M23 rebels caused significant damage to both military and civilian aircraft at Goma airport in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as confirmed by Congolese military sources.
Goma International Airport is utilized by the Air Force of the DRC and MONUSCO peacekeeping forces for their military operations against M23 rebel groups. MONUSCO is the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC.
The DR Congo military acknowledged the recent attack, attributing the explosions to ongoing military operations against the M23 rebel group. Lieutenant Colonel Ndjike Kaiko Guillaume, the military spokesperson in North Kivu province, informed reporters that a drone shell fell at Goma International Airport on Saturday, February 17, around 2 a.m. local time (midnight GMT).
U.S. Department of State Press Statement- Escalation of Hostilities in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo
Over the weekend, the U.S. State Department released a statement condemning the attack by M23, as well as Rwanda’s support for the group.
“The United States strongly condemns the worsening violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) caused by the actions of the Rwanda-backed, U.S.- and UN-sanctioned M23 armed group, including its recent incursions into the town of Sake. This escalation has increased the risk to ms of people already exposed to human rights abuses, including displacement, deprivation, and attacks. We call on M23 to immediately cease hostilities and withdraw from its current positions around Sake and Goma and in accordance with the Luanda and Nairobi processes. The United States condemns Rwanda’s support for the M23 armed group and calls on Rwanda to immediately withdraw all Rwanda Defense Force personnel from the DRC and remove its surface-to-air missile systems, which threaten the lives of civilians, UN and other regional peacekeepers, humanitarian actors, and commercial flights in eastern DRC.”
South Africa Sending Additional Troops
On Wednesday, South Africa announced its decision to deploy 2,900 troops to aid the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in countering the armed group.
The DRC has been engaged in a prolonged conflict with numerous rebel factions that surfaced in its resource-abundant eastern region following the Rwandan genocide. The M23, which splintered from the DRC army in 2012, asserts that it is fighting to protect ethnic Congolese Tutsis who encounter tribal discrimination in the DRC.
https://cuashub.com/content/us-department-of-state-condemns-congo-drone-attack/?_hsmi=294592725&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_Vrw9VXDjXXOl-EpDvNp5qF6CxWvDEiHI5iE0gKzMmV4BYGqBRP-mEv8MdCbCYZXw4iWruAn6IxL8Zvhyi8s-usIhIp4xz-4BEmPSCN1-31nY092Y#utm_campaign=C-UAS%20Hub%20General&utm_medium=email&utm_content=294592725&utm_source=hs_email(Source: https://cuashub.com/)
20 Feb 24. Reports Find Israel Carried Out Covert Gas Pipeline Attack In Iran.
Recent reports, including coverage by the New York Times, indicate that Israel conducted covert attacks on two major natural gas pipelines within Iran. These attacks have led to extensive disruptions in the supply of heat and cooking gas to ms of people across several Iranian provinces, underlining a significant escalation in the ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran.
The operations against Iran’s gas infrastructure signal a strategic expansion in the conflict, historically characterized by targeted strikes on military and nuclear sites, assassinations of key personnel, and cyberattacks. The New York Times, citing two Western officials and a military strategist affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, highlighted the sophisticated nature of these attacks, emphasizing the required in-depth knowledge of Iran’s infrastructure and the precise coordination needed to execute them simultaneously at multiple locations.
Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji, in statements to Iranian media, referred to the incidents as “sabotage and terrorist attacks” aimed at disrupting the nation’s energy infrastructure, particularly during the winter season. While not directly accusing Israel, the implication of these statements, combined with the analysis by unnamed Western officials and military strategists, points towards Israel’s involvement.
The targeted pipelines play a critical role in Iran’s domestic energy supply, carrying natural gas from the south to major cities including Tehran and Isfahan. The attacks reportedly knocked out approximately 15 percent of Iran’s daily natural gas production, underscoring the operations’ impact on Iran’s critical infrastructure.
Despite the immediate disruption, Iranian officials claimed that repair teams had swiftly managed to restore service. However, reports from local governors and Iran’s national gas company indicated widespread outages and the forced closure of government buildings across five provinces, revealing the attacks’ extensive impact on Iranian society. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
20 Feb 24. The U.S. Is Planning To Build 5 Bases For Somalia’s Counter-Terrorism Commandos. The United States and the Somali government have taken a significant step towards bolstering Somalia’s defense infrastructure by agreeing to build five new military bases dedicated to the Somali National Army’s Danab Brigade, an elite commando unit trained by the U.S. This agreement, signed in a ceremony in Mogadishu attended by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and key U.S. officials, represents a strategic move to empower Somalia’s military forces in the ongoing battle against the al-Shabab militant group.
Reports Find Israel Carried Out Covert Gas Pipeline Attack In Iran.
Recent reports, including coverage by the New York Times, indicate that Israel conducted covert attacks on two major natural gas pipelines within Iran. These attacks have led to extensive disruptions in the supply of heat and cooking gas to ms of people across several Iranian provinces, underlining a significant escalation in the ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran.
The operations against Iran’s gas infrastructure signal a strategic expansion in the conflict, historically characterized by targeted strikes on military and nuclear sites, assassinations of key personnel, and cyberattacks. The New York Times, citing two Western officials and a military strategist affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, highlighted the sophisticated nature of these attacks, emphasizing the required in-depth knowledge of Iran’s infrastructure and the precise coordination needed to execute them simultaneously at multiple locations.
Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji, in statements to Iranian media, referred to the incidents as “sabotage and terrorist attacks” aimed at disrupting the nation’s energy infrastructure, particularly during the winter season. While not directly accusing Israel, the implication of these statements, combined with the analysis by unnamed Western officials and military strategists, points towards Israel’s involvement.
The targeted pipelines play a critical role in Iran’s domestic energy supply, carrying natural gas from the south to major cities including Tehran and Isfahan. The attacks reportedly knocked out approximately 15 percent of Iran’s daily natural gas production, underscoring the operations’ impact on Iran’s critical infrastructure.
Despite the immediate disruption, Iranian officials claimed that repair teams had swiftly managed to restore service. However, reports from local governors and Iran’s national gas company indicated widespread outages and the forced closure of government buildings across five provinces, revealing the attacks’ extensive impact on Iranian society.
The Danab Brigade, established in 2017 through a U.S.-Somalia partnership, is at the forefront of Somalia’s counter-terrorism efforts. The brigade is envisioned to reach a personnel strength of 3,000 in the coming months, taking on increasing responsibilities in recruitment, training, and operational leadership. This development comes at a critical juncture as Somalia navigates complex security challenges, including threats from al-Shabab and regional tensions highlighted by the recent Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement, which has stirred controversy over territorial integrity.
This military infrastructure project aligns with broader international efforts to stabilize the Horn of Africa region. It follows a series of defense and economic cooperation agreements involving Somalia, Turkey, and other regional players.
The construction of these bases marks a pivotal investment in Somalia’s security apparatus, aiming to transition operational control to the Somali National Army and reduce reliance on international peacekeeping forces, which are gradually scaling back their presence in the country.
(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
19 Feb 24. China-Taiwan: Tensions will be raised after China expands its naval posture around Kinmen islands. Earlier on 19 February, four China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels reportedly sailed near the restricted zone around Taiwan’s Kinmen islands. On 18 February, the CCG announced plans to carry out regular patrols around Xiamen (Fujian province, China), which is located 1.86 miles (3km) from the islands, allegedly to strengthen maritime law enforcement. It stated that an enhanced naval presence would also protect the lives of its fishermen. On 14 February, two Chinese fishermen died when their boat capsized near Kinmen after they were chased by Taiwanese Coast Guard Administration (CGA) vessels. Taipei claimed that the fishermen entered Taiwanese waters illegally. Beijing condemned the CGA for adopting ‘violent and dangerous methods’. We assess that an expansion of Chinese patrols near the islands will increase maritime tensions between China and Taiwan, driving the risk of naval accidents. However, neither side appears intent on escalating the dispute to a military conflict for now.(Source: Sibylline)
19 Feb 24. Congo (DRC): Drone strike underscores elevated risks to staff, assets around Goma. On 17 February, the authorities accused the Rwandan army of a drone attack, in which two commercially available drones were modified to carry mortar bombs. The attack targeted Goma International Airport (GOM, North Kivu province), damaging one civilian aircraft. Elements of the Rwandan army are suspected of supporting the M23 rebel group, which is currently fighting with the Congolese government near the town of Sake (North Kivu), located around 15 miles (24km) to the west of Goma. While it is possible that the drone strike represents a case of target misidentification/miscalculation, we also assess that it possibly points to a shift towards targeting dual-use military-civilian facilities. In this case, further attacks against GOM are likely in the coming weeks as the M23 and Rwanda attempt to disrupt efforts by the Congolese army and its regional partners to resupply their military assets, driving bystander and collateral damage risks for staff and assets. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Feb 24. Papua New Guinea: Deadly violence highlights inadequate security environment in Highlands region. Earlier on 19 February, the police claimed that at least 26 people were killed over the weekend in tribal violence in Enga province (Highlands region). The police believe that one tribe, along with allied mercenaries, was en route to attack a neighbouring tribe before being ambushed. While tribal violence is not uncommon in Highlands region, the latest incident is believed to be one of the worst in recent history. Enga province has experienced a notable escalation in violence, which has been exacerbated by an increase in illegal firearms being trafficked into the country; the province locked down for three months last year due to tribal conflict. Given the remote nature of these regions and the lack of security personnel therein, we assess that conflict will highly likely continue to undermine the security environment. (Source: Sibylline)
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