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18 Jan 24. New Zealand defence navigates budget constraints and geopolitical shifts. GlobalData reports illuminate strategic investments and complex procurement landscape in New Zealand’s Army, Air Force, and Navy. As New Zealand adapts to a changing geopolitical landscape, GlobalData’s “New Zealand Defense Market 2023-2028” reports offer insights into the nation’s defence strategy.
From boosting defence spending to navigating procurement challenges, this report sheds light on the multifaceted approach of New Zealand’s Army, Air Force, and Navy.
New Zealand defence spending on the rise
Amid geopolitical shifts, New Zealand plans a boost in defence spending. GlobalData reports a forecasted expenditure of $3.4bn in 2028, showcasing a strategic realignment after a negative CAGR of 6.9% from 2019 to 2023. This shift signals the government’s commitment to countering emerging threats.
The Defense Capability Plan 2019 outlines a $13.2bn (NZ$21.5bn) commitment to upgrading capabilities. The Royal New Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) takes centre stage with plans to procure P-8A Poseidon aircraft and revitalise tactical airlift capacities. Simultaneously, the Royal New Zealand Navy (RNZN) focuses on modernising ANZAC frigates and investing in a new ice-capable offshore patrol vessel.
The New Zealand Defense Force (NZDF) focuses on land capabilities, investing in protected and tactical mobility. Cumulative defence modernisation projects are set to propel the South Pacific Ocean island’s defence market growth, showcasing a comprehensive approach across all branches.
Foreign investment and market challenges
The complexity of New Zealand’s defence procurement is dissected in detail. The Ministry of Defense and NZDF collaboratively oversee procurements, emphasising the Capability Delivery Division’s role. Trade associations like NZDIA and NZ Marine Industry Association play roles, influencing policies and supporting SMEs.
While New Zealand welcomes foreign investment, particularly in defence, the Overseas Investment Act 2005 ensures a delicate balance. A fair and liberal foreign direct investment policy prevails, but challenges loom with a limited defence budget of $2.9bn. The preference for US suppliers, evident in significant procurement programmes, presents hurdles for international players.
The defence market is dynamic across the Army, Air Force, and Navy. Significant investments in military-fixed wing aircraft and naval vessels dominate, with notable contracts like the C-130J with Lockheed Martin and Boeing’s P-8A Poseidon. A new Southern Ocean Patrol Vessel, costing $395.9m, underlines New Zealand’s commitment to maritime capabilities.
Geopolitical considerations for New Zealand
New Zealand’s defence strategy responds to evolving geopolitical concerns, particularly in the face of expanding Chinese influence. The report highlights a nuanced stance within the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, emphasising a measured approach in Trans-Tasman relations with Australia.
GlobalData’s insights offer a view of New Zealand’s defence landscape. From financial realignment and strategic investments to navigating procurement intricacies, the nation stands at the forefront of securing its interests amidst a complex global scenario. (Source: army-technology.com)
18 Jan 24. Pakistan-Iran: Further retaliatory strikes are possible despite unwillingness to escalate significantly. At approximately 0430hrs (local time) on 18 January, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) launched a series of strikes against militant hideouts in Sistan and Baluchistan province (Iran). The retaliatory action comes in response to Iran’s strikes against Pakistan’s Balochistan province less than 48 hours beforehand. While Pakistan likely felt forced to act in response to the initial Iranian strikes, we assess that Islamabad is highly likely keen to avoid escalating the situation and that these strikes represent a proportional response from a Pakistani perspective. Iran is also highly likely keen to avoid escalating the situation into a state-on-state conflict, though further retaliatory strikes against militant targets in Balochistan remain possible. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Jan 24. Russia: Coercive response to protests will limit escalation risks, exacerbate anti-Moscow sentiment. On 16 January, ongoing mass protests in Russia’s Bashkortostan region escalated into clashes with the police. Around 20 participants were detained, while several riot police personnel and protesters were reportedly injured. The clashes occurred after a local court sentenced the activist Fail Alysnov to four years in prison for inciting ethnic hatred against migrant workers in April 2023. The protests started on 15 January. They attracted thousands of people, making them the largest rallies in Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The Bashkortostan authorities opened an investigation into the riots and have accused extremists of fomenting the protests. On 17 January, several Telegram channels covering the protests became inaccessible; this was highly likely orchestrated by the authorities so as to limit the coverage. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has been increasingly wary of ethnic separatism in regions that have strong ethnic identities (such as Bashkortostan). While the authorities will likely succeed in preventing an escalation, we assess that heavy-handed repression will exacerbate anti-Moscow sentiment and moderately reinvigorate separatist activism. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Jan 24. RTAF readies new white paper outlining future capabilities. The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) will release a new white paper detailing its force development strategies for the next decade including its rationale for 12 new multirole combat aircraft, RTAF chief Air Chief Marshal Punpakdee Pattanakul said during a media conference on 16 January.
ACM Pattanakul said the new white paper will be launched during a RTAF symposium set to be held on 29 February.
The plan to acquire new combat aircraft centres on the replacement for the RTAF’s ageing Lockheed Martin F-16A/B fleet which will be retired in 2028. It is understood that this programme will be divided into three phases, with the first expected to begin in October 2025.
The first phase for four aircraft will reportedly cost an estimated 19bn baht. The service also released a request for proposals (RFP) in October 2023 for possible contenders, although no specific fighter type was mentioned in the proposal. However, it has been widely considered that the Saab JAS 39E Gripen and Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70/72 are the two current frontrunners.
Both companies already have a strong track record in Thailand, with Lockheed Martin supplying RTAF’s current F-16A/B fleet while Saab has provided its JAS 39C/D Gripen and Saab 340 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft.
Thailand’s earlier ambition to acquire the fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter did not gain traction with the United States government.
The RTAF’s previous white paper was published in 2020 and had outlined the various missions undertaken by the service in air defence and reconnaissance operations, as well as its roles in tactical airlift and search and rescue.
The white paper also highlighted the capabilities required to perform these missions, such as new combat aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, radar systems, and aircrew training. (Source: AMR)
19 Jan 24. Russia: Proactive security measures will lower risk of further escalation in Bashkortostan. On 19 January, around 1,500 protesters gathered in Ufa, the capital of Russia’s Bashkortostan republic. Although significant demonstrations involving up to 5,000 people have taken place in Baymak (Bashkortostan) since 15 January, this is the first time the protests have spread to the region’s capital. The earlier demonstrations escalated into clashes with riot police. Law enforcement was present in Ufa before the arrival of the latest protesters, likely indicating that the authorities have been closely monitoring the protesters’ activities and co-ordination efforts. Riot police arrested nine activists, and the rally ended at around 1300hrs (local time). The lower turnout and premature end to the rally indicate that the protests are losing momentum, likely due to the local authorities’ proactive and coercive security posture. The eruption of Russia’s largest protests since the beginning of the war in Ukraine underscores the persistence of ethnic unrest in non-Slavic majority regions like Bashkortostan; the issue will remain a trigger for anti-Moscow unrest ahead of the presidential election in March. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Jan 24. Moldova-Ukraine: Accession to regional gas corridor will bolster energy security, co-operation. On 19 January, Moldova’s energy minister, Victor Parlicov, will participate in a ministerial meeting on energy connectivity in central and south-eastern Europe (CESEC) in Athens (Greece). Moldova’s energy ministry stated on 18 January that Moldova and Ukraine will join the Vertical Gas Corridor project during this meeting. The corridor links Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary and Romania. According to the ministry, the corridor is not a traditional single pipeline project but rather a system connecting existing national grids and other gas infrastructure. The corridor primarily seeks to offer European states alternative routes and suppliers to Russia. Moldova has sought to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. In October 2023, Parlicov announced that Moldovan regions controlled by the central authorities will no longer purchase gas from Russia’s Gazprom. Ultimately, the accession of Moldova and Ukraine into the Vertical Gas Corridor will highly likely bolster energy security in the two countries, allowing for greater energy co-operation with other European states.
18 Jan 24. Pakistan launches strikes against targets in Iran. Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran. Pakistan launched attacks against suspected terrorist locations within Iran, Pakistan’s foreign ministry said in a statement, after Tehran’s strikes on a location inside Pakistani territory earlier this week.
“A number of terrorists were killed during the intelligence-based operation,” the foreign ministry said. “Over the last several years, in our engagements with Iran, Pakistan has consistently shared its serious concerns about the safe havens and sanctuaries enjoyed by Pakistani-origin terrorists . . . inside Iran.”
Alireza Rahmati, deputy to the governor of Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, told state television that Pakistan launched missiles at an Iranian border village at 4.30am local time, killing four children and three women who were foreign nationals. He said “another explosion” happened near the border town of Saravan, causing no casualties. (Source: FT.com)
18 Jan 24. Bangladesh defence spending set to reduce as a percentage of its GDP. Despite robust funding, the nation’s defence spending as a percentage of its gross domestic product is due to fall as the Government overcomes post-Covid shock.
Analysis from the leading intelligence consultancy GlobalData indicates that Bangladesh’s defence expenditure, as a percentage of its gross domestic product, is due to decrease marginally between 2024 and 2028.
While the average percentage during 2019 to 2023 was 1.8%, this is expected to stumble to 1.5% between 2024 and 2028, according to the company’s report: Bangladesh Defence Market 2023-2028.
However, this is not down to a lack of funding since the defence budget will increase from $4.3bn in 2024 to $5.3bn in 2028, at a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%.
So what accounts for this slight shortfall over the next five years?
Although the South Asian nation is anticipated to provide robust funding, it is unlikely to be at the cost of economic development. Bangladesh is on a trajectory of economic recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn. Consequently, as the economy improves, a consistent flow of funding for defence is anticipated.
Bangladesh focuses on its naval build-up
The defence budget will grow to accommodate for modernisation across the armed forces, a goal set out in 2009 with the introduction of the country’s ‘Forces Goal 2030’, aimed at enhancing their capabilties.
Of the sectors, naval vessels and surface combatants are due to dominate the budget, while communication systems and electronic warfare (EW) systems offer particularly lucrative opportunities, as their estimated contract allocations (ECAs) are valued at $1.7bn, $654.7m, and $450.1m, respectively.
$1.4bn is expected to be spent on frigates, cumulatively, while investing $181.6m in light combat vessels over 2023–28.
Likewise, in 2019, a contract for indigenously built guided missile frigates was signed. Chittagong Dry Dock Limited has received a contract to build six new offshore patrol vessels for the Bangladeshi Navy.
The visit of the UK Royal Navy’s offshore patrol vessel, HMS Tamar, to the Bay of Bengal in January 2023 demonstrates the Bangladeshi Navy’s concern in its waters.
A series of discussions, combined training and cultural exchanges with the emphasis on underlining the UK’s commitment to Bangladesh were made.
Commander Telio Eliott-Smith, the commanding officer of HMS Tamar, alongside Bangladeshi Navy personnel. Credit: UK Royal Navy.
“The Bangladeshi Navy have been very eager to exchange knowledge and understand the way we operate our Offshore Patrol Vessels,” Commander Elliot-Smith noted at the time.
“The visit has made clear the strategic importance of Bangladesh. Its Navy approaches interaction with the UK with a great sense of reverence, and they celebrate unanimously that their doctrine and policies are aligned to our own.” (Source: airforce-technology.com)
16 Jan 24. RoK, US to start defence cost talks early, before US elections -media. South Korea and the United States have agreed to start early talks on how to share the cost of keeping U.S. forces in the country in a bid to reach a deal before the possible reelection of Donald Trump as president, local media reported on Tuesday.
Trump, who has emerged as the undisputed frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2024 election, had during his presidency accused key Asian ally South Korea of “free-riding” on U.S. military might and demanded it pay as much as $5bn a year for the U.S. deployment.
Negotiations for the Special Measures Agreement were gridlocked for months under the Trump administration, and the deal was finalised when South Korea agreed to a 13.9% increase in its contribution, the biggest annual rise in nearly two decades.
The agreement is set to expire in 2025, and Yonhap news agency as well as news service Newspim quoted unnamed diplomatic sources as saying South Korea and the United States had agreed to start talks this year on extending the deal to 2026 and beyond. Talks are usually held just before the existing deal is due to end.
South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Lim Soo-suk declined to comment on the reports, saying the government would prepare for the next negotiations in a “systematic, strategic” manner.
A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said a delegation from its Office of Security Negotiations and Agreements visited South Korea from Dec. 11-17, 2023, to discuss implementation of the existing 11th Special Measures Agreement (SMA).
“We will work closely with (South Korea) to prepare for the negotiations of the 12th SMA,” the spokesperson said in an emailed response to a Reuters query, while adding: “We have not yet made any decisions on the specifics for negotiations.”
American troops are deployed in South Korea as part of both nations’ efforts to deter North Korea, which has been accelerating its nuclear and missile programmes.
South Korea began shouldering the costs of U.S. deployments, used to fund local labour, the construction of military installations and other logistics support, in the early 1990s. (Source: Reuters)
12 Jan 24. Iran launches missile strikes against targets in Syria and northern Iraq. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched a barrage of ballistic missiles against targets in Syria and northern Iraq, including what the elite force described as an Israeli intelligence centre run by Mossad, the spy agency. The guards said the missile strikes on an “espionage centre” in the Iraqi city of Erbil were in retaliation for Israeli strikes that killed an Iranian commander in Syria, as well as members of Iran-backed militant groups in the region. Iran’s attacks will heighten fears that the Middle East is sliding dangerously towards a broader regional conflagration as tensions have soared since the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas more than three months ago. The US state department condemned the attacks in Erbil, capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, saying that they would further destabilise the region. “We oppose Iran’s reckless missile strikes, which undermine Iraq’s stability,” said Matthew Miller, the US state department spokesman. “We support the government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s efforts to meet the aspirations of the Iraqi people.” Kurdish authorities said the Iranians fired ballistic missiles at several civilian areas in Erbil, killing four people and wounding six others. Some reportedly struck near the US consulate in the city, but they caused no damage to the diplomatic mission. “No US facilities were impacted. We’re not tracking damage to infrastructure or injuries at this time,” a US official said. Kurdish authorities called the attack “a blatant violation of the sovereignty of the Kurdistan region and Iraq”, adding in a statement that Baghdad and the international community “must not remain silent regarding this crime”. The guards also said they launched missile strikes in Syria targeting Isis, which they said were in response to this month’s suicide bombing in southern Iran that killed almost 100 people, according to Iranian state news agencies. Isis claimed responsibility for that attack. The Israel-Hamas war has triggered intensifying hostilities across the region with Iran-backed Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant movement, trading daily cross-border fire with Israel; Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea; and Iran-supported Iraqi militants launching missiles and drones against US forces in Iraq and Syria. Iran has for months indicated it does not want to become directly embroiled in a wider conflict that could lead to it being dragged into a war with the US or Israel. But it has supported its proxies in the so-called Axis of Resistance as they have mounted attacks in response to Israel’s offensive in Gaza against Hamas, which is also backed by Tehran. So far, the hostilities involving Iran-backed militant groups have remained contained within each theatre. (Source: FT.com)
17 Jan 24. Somalia: Attack underscores threat to civilian installations used by government, security personnel. On 16 January, al-Shabaab militants killed three people and injured two others in a suicide bombing outside a restaurant in the Hamar Weyne district of the capital Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claims that the attack targeted government and security officials; the group frequently conducts attacks against government and security officials while they are in public, including at hotels and shopping malls. As such, the attack is consistent with the elevated threat environment throughout Mogadishu, as well as al-Shabaab’s typical intent to disrupt Somali security planning and impede counter-offensive operations. Al-Shabaab attacks will almost certainly continue throughout 2024 as militants continue their disruption campaign in Mogadishu and other major cities. Militants will almost certainly continue to target both military and civilian installations, including hotels and restaurants frequented by government personnel. This poses significant bystander risks to staff and assets in affected areas. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Jan 24. Burkina Faso: Anti-junta coup allegations underline instability fears, elevated arbitrary arrest risks. On 15 January, armed men in military uniform abducted the chief of staff of an influential business from his home in the capital Ouagadougou in connection with an alleged plot against the junta. At least four soldiers, including the former chief of staff of the national gendarmerie, Lieutenant-Colonel Evrard Somda, and several civilians were also arrested in recent days for their alleged involvement in this so-called plot. In September 2023, the transitional government claimed that the security forces foiled a coup attempt, arresting four officers. The repeated coup allegations likely reflect heightened internal anxiety about government stability amid a worsening security environment. From 24 to 30 December 2023, jihadists launched four separate attacks targeting military detachments, killing over 60 soldiers. A heightened security presence in Ouagadougou is likely in the coming days, driving citywide mobility disruption and elevating risks of arbitrary arrests for individuals deemed to be critical of the junta, including journalists and NGO staff. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 24. Russia welcomes North Korean foreign minister for talks on deepening ties. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui is in Russia this week for talks with her counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, as the two countries deepen economic, political, and military ties.
Choe arrived in Moscow on Sunday and was met by officials from the Russian foreign ministry and the North Korean embassy, state news agency KCNA reported on Monday.
As Russia’s international isolation has grown over its war in Ukraine, analysts say Moscow has seen increasing value in its ties with North Korea.
For North Korea’s part, relations with Russia have not always been as warm as they were at the height of the Soviet Union, but the country is reaping benefits from Moscow’s need for friends.
North Korea on Sunday tested a new solid-fuel hypersonic missile with intermediate range, KCNA reported, in a move that was condemned by the United States, South Korea and Japan.
Choe’s visit is scheduled to last through Wednesday, Russia’s foreign ministry said, and comes as the United States and its allies accused Moscow of firing North Korean-made ballistic missiles and other weapons against targets in Ukraine.
Moscow and Pyongyang have denied arms deals but have vowed to deepen cooperation across the board and have staged a series of high-level meetings since last year, including a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Russia.
“Given that the Russia-North Korea relationship is shaping up to be quite multi-faceted, all kinds of issues can be discussed between Lavrov and Choe,” said Artyom Lukin, at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University. “If she meets the Russian president, this may be another indication Putin will visit Pyongyang this year.”
Lukin said given the high number of North Korean missile launches, the latest test was likely unrelated to Choe’s trip.
A striking sign of deepening ties came in July, when Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Pyongyang and toured a weapons exhibit that included the North’s banned ballistic missiles.
That was followed by Kim’s trip to Russia, his first foreign visit since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
“In a nutshell, North Korea feels increasingly insecure and vulnerable vis-a-vis South Korea,” Lukin said. “Russia is currently the only power that can help enhance Pyongyang’s military-strategic security.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the visit would include negotiations, but did not elaborate.
She also predicted the trip would spark speculation by the West.
“Westerners are constantly throwing in the story that Russia is somehow behaving differently again, has no right to communicate with North Korea,” Zakharova said on state TV channel Rossiya-1 on Sunday. “We have the right to do whatever we consider necessary, taking into account the fact that we constantly declare respect for international law.”
Choe said in October that criticism by the United States and its allies of North Korea’s suspected arms deliveries to Russia was politicised and distorted, while vowing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang would reach a “new higher phase.”
Russia and North Korea have not commented specifically on the allegations of Moscow using North Korean missiles in Ukraine.
“Russia has been more openly willing to flaunt sanctions against Pyongyang, and appears increasingly less interested in multilateral efforts to curb North Korean provocations, especially since the Kremlin does not view North Korea as a direct threat to Russia,” said Anthony Rinna, a specialist in Korea-Russia relations at Sino-NK, a website that analyses the region. (Source: Reuters)
12 Jan 24. Former US official says commitment to Taiwan ‘rock solid.’ The United States looks forward to continuity in the Taiwan-U.S. relationship under the new Taiwanese administration and the U.S. commitment to the island is “rock solid”, a former senior U.S. official told Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Monday.
Lai Ching-te from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidential election on Saturday as expected and will take office on May 20.
In a show of support for the government, a senior administration official said last week that President Joe Biden planned to send an unofficial delegation to the Chinese-claimed island. Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
The Biden administration has feared that the election, transition and new administration would escalate tensions with Beijing, which has pressured Taiwan militarily and economically to assert its sovereignty claims.
Meeting Tsai at the presidential office, former U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley said he was there to convey from the American people congratulations on the election.
“Taiwan’s democracy has set a shining example to the world,” Hadley said, in comments released by Tsai’s office.
“We are honoured to have the opportunity to meet with you today to reaffirm that the American commitment to Taiwan is rock solid, principled and bipartisan and that the United States stands with its friends,” he added.
Hadley said he looked forward to meeting Lai and other political leaders.
“We look forward to continuity in the relationship between Taiwan and the United States under the new administration, and for common efforts to preserve cross-strait peace and stability.”
Lai, meeting the group later at party headquarters, said he hoped the United States would continue to support Taiwan and deepen cooperation with the island.
Lai said his administration will “keep defending peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” as Tsai has done.
China’s military has not directly commented on the election, but on Monday its Eastern Theatre Command released footage of naval combat drills in the East China Sea, without giving a detailed location.
“Battle alert, battle alert!” the command said in accompanying text. “The enemy suddenly arrives and the commander quickly issues combat instructions.”
CHINA ANGER AT LAI
Before the election, China had repeatedly denounced Lai as a dangerous separatist.
Two sources familiar with the U.S. trip, speaking on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media, told Reuters this post-election visit by a former U.S. official was not out of the ordinary.
China, which has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, has criticised several countries for congratulating Lai on his election victory, saying they should not interfere in China’s affairs.
Taiwan’s government says Beijing has no right to speak for the island’s people or represent them on the world stage.
The United States is Taiwan’s most important international backer, despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, and a major arms supplier to Taipei.
On Saturday following the election, U.S. President Joe Biden said the United States does not support the independence of Taiwan.
Lai says he does not seek to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, sticking by Tsai’s long-standing policy of neither seeking independence nor union with China and that only Taiwan’s people can decide their future.
Tsai told the U.S. delegation, which also includes former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, that their visit fully demonstrates U.S. support for Taiwan’s democracy and highlights their “staunch” partnership.
“We hope that Taiwan-U.S. relations continue to advance and serve as a key driving force in regional and global prosperity and development,” he said.
While Lai won election, albeit with less than half the vote, the DPP lost its majority in parliament, potentially making it much harder for him to pass legislation.
Taiwan’s stock market on Monday largely brushed off any post-election uncertainty, with the benchmark index (.TWII) up around 0.5%.(Source: Reuters)
15 Jan 24. Taiwan: Election result will sustain cross-strait tensions in coming years. On 13 January, Lai Ching-te won a three-way race to become Taiwan’s new president with more than 40% of the vote, ensuring that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) controls the presidency for a third consecutive term. However, the DPP lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan, which will not be controlled by a single party. The loss of control of the legislature means that Lai, who will be inaugurated on 20 May, will struggle to push through the entirety of his policy agenda. The result also means that relations between Taiwan and China will almost certainly remain significantly strained. Although Lai called for ‘dialogue to replace confrontation’, engagement will highly likely remain negligible in the coming years. Consequently, China will likely continue to increase pressure on Taiwan militarily, economically and diplomatically, sustaining the risk of an escalation. Since the result, there has not been a significant spike in Chinese military activity around the island. However, the Pacific island nation of Nauru announced that it will sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 24. Philippines-China: Philippines’ plans to develop islands in South China Sea will drive tensions. Earlier on 15 January, the Philippines’ military chief, General Romeo Brawner, stated that his country will develop islands in areas of the South China Sea (SCS) it occupies to make them more habitable for troops. Developments will reportedly include the installation of desalination machines and communications equipment. The Philippines has been more active in asserting its maritime claims since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr assumed office in 2022. China has long opposed Manila’s ambition to build civilian facilities on contested shoals. In recent months, there have been several tense stand-offs between Chinese and Philippine ships. In December 2023, a Chinese coastguard ship fired a water cannon at a Philippine supply ship. The announcements by the Philippines’ army chief will almost certainly increase regional tensions. While neither side seems intent on engaging in armed conflict, increased activity in disputed waters will sustain the risk of an unintended military escalation and disruption to shipping in the region. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 24. Belarus: Harsh repression will highly likely mitigate government stability risks before, during polls. On 13 January, the head of the Belarusian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), Ivan Kubrakov, stated that the authorities will react swiftly to actions which violate public order during the upcoming elections. According to Kubrakov, the MVD has approved a range of ‘operational investigative measures’ ahead of 25 February, when elections for the lower house of parliament and local councils of deputies will take place. Rapid response teams will be called on in case of ‘emergency situations’ at polling stations. The authorities initiated a crackdown following largely peaceful protests after the August 2020 presidential election. Riot police are estimated to have detained almost 7,000 protesters and bystanders between 9 and 12 August 2020. Former detainees reported incidents of torture and ill-treatment. The authorities will almost certainly seek to deter potential anti-government unrest during the vote; further political repression is highly likely ahead of the elections. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 24. Moldova: Russian destabilisation risks will remain elevated in coming months. On 13 January, Moldovan President Maia Sandu warned that Russia will attempt to destabilise Moldova in the coming months. Sandu explained that Russia’s destabilisation campaign will rely on corrupt Moldovan politicians undermining the country’s democratic values and constitutional order to obstruct the government’s pro-EU efforts. Meanwhile, on 12 January, the authorities in the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria claimed that Western-backed ‘combat groups’ from Ukraine are preparing to carry out attacks against critical infrastructure and military facilities in the territory. The Transnistrian authorities further alleged that such attacks will include kidnappings of senior Transnistrian officials. However, such rhetoric is unlikely to indicate an imminent and major military escalation in the short term, given the relatively limited capabilities Russia possess in the breakaway region. Nevertheless, ahead of the Moldovan presidential election this autumn, Russian destabilisation risks are likely to increase. They will possibly include isolated border incidents, sporadic shelling, airspace violations, bomb threats in the capital Chișinău and Russian-backed anti-government protests. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 24. Guatemala: Government stability, domestic unrest risks will remain high despite inauguration. Earlier on 15 January, Bernado Arevalo was sworn in as Guatemala’s president following last-minute attempts by the opposition to derail his inauguration. Members of the opposition in Congress spent hours deciding whom to recognise as part of the congressional delegation, purposefully delaying Arevalo’s inauguration. Their actions prompted domestic unrest by Arevalo’s supporters. Protesters demanding for legislators in Congress to stop their attempts to delay the inauguration proceedings clashed with the police. Despite Arevalo entering office, the opposition will likely continue to challenge both the president and his political party, Movimiento Semilla (MS), in the coming months. These challenges will likely also play out in Congress, as policies championed by Arevalo will face significant hurdles due to MS’ lack of seats. Political stability and domestic unrest risks will therefore remain heightened in the near term. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 24. Ecuador: Bystander, operational risks will remain elevated amid Operation Fénix. On 14 January, President Daniel Noboa’s government began to crack down on prisons across Ecuador, freeing 201 prison staff who had been held hostage. The president also announced that since the beginning of ‘Operation Fénix’ on 9 January, the security forces had detained 1,327 people (143 of them on suspicion of terrorism). The authorities have carried out 12,974 operations, 32 of which have targeted ‘terrorist’ groups outlined in Executive Decree 111. During these operations, the security forces have seized 491 firearms, 268 bladed weapons, 462 explosive devices and 10,241 rounds of ammunition. The government’s response to the ongoing crisis indicates a heightened state of militarisation. The number of arrests and security operations point to concerns over human rights violations. In addition, the sudden influx of more than 1,000 prisoners will likely place greater strain on the nation’s prison system. The crackdown will almost certainly provoke a violent response from gangs; risks to bystanders’ safety and business operations therefore remain elevated.(Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 24. Turkey-Iraq-Syria: Turkish airstrikes against YPG, PKK will drive further escalation in border regions. On 13 and 14 January, Turkey conducted airstrikes against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) positions in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region; it carried out simultaneous strikes against the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria. The airstrikes come after the PKK killed nine soldiers in an attack against a Turkish military base in northern Iraq on 12 January. The Turkish defence ministry stated that its strikes primarily targeted military positions, but also key infrastructure (including oil installations). Further cross-border attacks against Turkish military positions along the Turkish-Syrian border and the Turkish-Iraqi border are likely in the coming weeks. In response, there is a realistic possibility of a limited Turkish ground incursion into Iraq’s Kurdistan region in addition to possible wider airstrikes targeting YPG positions in Syria. Such operations will drive significant bystander risks and prompt severe disruption to cross-border movement. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jan 24. Iraq-Syria: IRGC strikes in Erbil are unlikely to prompt escalated US response. On 15 January, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) killed at least four people during ballistic missile strikes against Erbil (Erbil governorate, Iraqi Kurdistan region). The targets included a private residence near the US consulate. Simultaneous strikes also targeted unspecified locations in north-western Syria. The IRGC claimed the attack targeted an Israeli espionage centre in Erbil in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian commanders. It also claimed the attack targeted Islamic State (IS) commanders in Syria in response to the Kerman attack (see Sibylline Alert – 3 January 2024). As no US assets or personnel were harmed in the strike, it is unlikely that the US will pursue an escalatory response against Iran, other than via tit-for-tat clashes with Iranian proxies in Iraq. Although air traffic at Erbil International Airport (EBL) resumed after a brief suspension, there is a realistic possibility of further drone attacks targeting the area in the coming days and weeks, raising the likelihood of further air traffic disruption and physical security threats to assets in the region. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Jan 24. Korean peninsular: Dissolution of reunification agencies highlights escalation of regional tensions. On 16 January, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un announced the abolition of agencies responsible for managing ties with South Korea, including the Committee for Peaceful Reunification. Furthermore, Kim declared he aims to eliminate the notion of ‘peaceful reunification’ from the country’s constitution. He declared an end to the notion of reconciliation, framing north-south relations as hostile. In response, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned of a strong military reaction to any provocations. The development exacerbates already high tensions following recent actions by North Korea, such as missile launches and live-fire drills near its maritime border with South Korea. In November 2023, South Korea suspended a 2018 military agreement after North Korea launched its first spy satellite, increasing the potential for escalation along the border. North Korea’s recent rhetoric and actions, including the rejection of the Northern Limit Line and plans to redraw borders, signal a significant escalation in regional tensions and an apparent cessation of efforts towards peaceful reunification on the Korean peninsula. (Source: Sibylline)
17 Jan 24. Pakistan-Iran: Retaliatory action, elevated regional tensions are possible after Iranian missile strikes. On 16 January, international news outlets confirmed that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) violated Pakistan’s airspace and launched missile strikes targeting two militant bases in Panjgur district (Balochistan province). The strikes killed two children and injured three other people. They reportedly targeted the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, which Tehran claims is responsible for bombing attacks and kidnappings targeting Iranian border guards. The strikes follow earlier attacks by the IRGC against ‘anti-Iran terror groups’ in Iraq and Syria on 15 January (see Sibylline Alert – 15 January 2024). While cross-border militant threats have long been a source of tension between Iran and Pakistan, the use of drones and missiles represents a major escalation that will significantly elevate regional tensions. With Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warning of ‘serious consequences’, there is a realistic possibility of retaliatory action in the coming days; this would further strain bilateral relations between the two neighbours. However, Pakistan is almost certainly aware that it highly likely cannot afford for the situation to escalate significantly. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company
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