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28 Dec 23. Defence cooperation: Bangladesh boosts arms purchases from Turkey. Bangladesh has significantly increased its arms purchases from Turkey over the past five years, fostering a closer defence partnership with the Eurasian nation.
There are 15 types of modern weaponry, including the Bayraktar TB2 drone, among the procurements during the period.
Diplomatic sources from both Dhaka and Ankara have confirmed the information, saying that bilateral defence cooperation and arms trade have reached an unprecedented feat throughout the last several years since 2018, and the trend may continue in the coming days.
Recognising the strong defence cooperation, Turkey has expressed its interest in strategic cooperation and has already offered Bangladesh a draft comprehensive framework agreement.
A number of senior diplomats, seeking anonymity, told Prothom Alo that there will be a meaningful transition to a strategic partnership if the proposed defence cooperation framework is signed. It will solidify defence ties between Bangladesh and Turkey.
Bangladesh now maintains formal strategic partnerships with India, China, and Japan, although that with India is considered more than strategic ties.
The Turkish leadership is now considering Bangladesh with special importance. We hope the relationship will soon graduate to a strategic partnership.
Bangladesh ambassador to Turkey M Amanul Haque
A diplomatic source from Turkey has said Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina attended a meeting of Bangladesh envoys stationed in the Middle East during her visit to Qatar in May this year. Speaking on the occasion, she laid emphasis on the strategic transition of bilateral relations with Turkey, considering the balanced position of Bangladesh amidst the changing dynamics of the Arab world and the Middle East.
Later, the prime minister sent a congratulatory message to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and expressed optimism about a brighter future for bilateral ties.
“Under your robust leadership, the existing bilateral relations will not only reach a new height but also head towards a strategic partnership,” she wrote in her congratulatory message to the Turkish president.
Bangladesh signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Turkey’s state-run arms manufacturer Rocketsun in June 2021. Rocketsun is known for producing arms in compliance with NATO standards.
In this regard, the Bangladesh ambassador to Turkey, M Amanul Haque, told Prothom Alo that bilateral cooperation continued to increase on different crucial grounds, including trade, investment, defence, disaster management, and the Rohingya crisis. The Turkish leadership is now considering Bangladesh with special importance. “We hope the relationship will soon graduate to a strategic partnership.”
Emphasis on Defence
The Bayraktar TB2 drone has proved its effectiveness in modern warfare, particularly in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Last year, the Bangladesh Armed Forces signed an agreement with Turkish manufacturer Baykar Technology to procure the advanced drone.
Former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu first brought the issue of drone procurement to limelight. During an official trip to Bangladesh in December 2020, he formally told the media about his country’s interest in selling arms to Bangladesh, following a meeting with his Bangladesh counterpart AK Abdul Momen.
In further development, Bangladesh signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Turkey’s state-run arms manufacturer Rocketsun in June 2021. Rocketsun is known for producing arms in compliance with NATO standards.
Purchases in the Last Five Years
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Bangladesh has procured a diverse range of defence equipment from Turkey in the last five years, including Cobra armored personnel carriers, short-range missiles, mine protected vehicles, armored vehicles, and multi-dimensional rocket defence systems.
An agreement has already been signed to sell automatic guided artillery shells to Bangladesh. Besides, Turkey is interested in selling military helicopters and tanks.
The Eurasian country provided technological support to the Bangladesh Machine Tools Factory (BMTF) to manufacture shells and proposed to hand over technologies to manufacture patrol boats for the Bangladesh Navy and Coast Guard.
(Source: Google/https://en.prothomalo.com/)
27 Dec 23. Fact Sheet: Department of Defense Concludes ‘Decisive Year’ in the Indo-Pacific Region. Throughout 2023, the United States has worked alongside allies and partners to deliver groundbreaking achievements for peace, stability, and deterrence in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. As Secretary Austin has said, “In this decisive decade, 2023 will be remembered as a decisive year for implementing U.S. defense strategy in Asia.”
Transforming U.S. Regional Force Posture
In 2023, the United States delivered historic achievements with allies and partners to make U.S. force posture in the Indo-Pacific region more mobile, distributed, resilient, and lethal, including by:
• Forward stationing key U.S. military units to Japan, including a U.S. Marine Littoral Regiment – the Marine Corps’ most advanced formation – and a U.S. Army watercraft unit to significantly enhance combat-credible deterrence.
• Launching a series of new force postures initiatives with Australia, including more and longer expeditionary visits of U.S. submarines resulting from AUKUS, increased rotations of U.S. bombers and fighters, expanded maritime and ground forces cooperation, enhanced space and logistics cooperation, continuing upgrades of key bases, and movement toward the creation of Submarine Rotational Force-West in Australia by 2027.
• Expanding U.S. rotational access across the Philippines by designating four new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites at strategic locations, which will strengthen the interoperability of U.S. and Philippine armed forces and allow both countries to address shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Concluding a Defense Cooperation Agreement with Papua New Guinea (PNG) that builds on decades of bilateral defense and security cooperation, strengthens the U.S.-PNG relationship, and increases regional stability and security.
• Bolstering deterrence and increasing strategic asset rotations to the Korean Peninsula, including the first port call of a U.S. SSBN to the Republic of Korea (ROK) in over 40 years and the first landing of a U.S. nuclear-capable B-52 on the Peninsula since 1988.
Making Historic Investments in Capability
The United States is deploying cutting-edge military capabilities right now, developing the capabilities needed to maintain deterrence in the Indo-Pacific in the future, and supporting allies and partners as they invest in their own capabilities by:
• Releasing the most strategy-driven defense budget in the Department’s history, including $170 bn for procurement to advance air, sea, and land power; $145 bn for research, development, test, and evaluation; and $9.1 bn for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative – more than ever proposed for these key lines of effort.
• Announcing the Optimal Pathway for Australia to acquire conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarine capabilities through AUKUS.
• Supporting Japan’s decision to acquire new capabilities that strengthen regional deterrence, including indigenous and acquired counterstrike capabilities like the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, as well as Tokyo’s decision to double its defense budget over the next five years and develop its research, testing, and industrial expertise to promote regional peace and stability.
• Advancing defense industrial base cooperation with Australia, including by agreeing to develop the ability to co-produce Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) by 2025, announcing an AUKUS Innovation Challenge focused on electronic warfare, and launching a new Maritime Autonomy Experimentation and Exercise Series through AUKUS.
• Bolstering India’s defense modernization plans, including by advancing the priorities outlined in the Roadmap for U.S.-India Defense Industrial Cooperation to co-produce fighter jet engines and Stryker armored vehicles, as well as launching the India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X) to promote partnerships between U.S. and Indian researchers, entrepreneurs, and investors.
Advancing a Shared Regional Vision
The United States is joining together with Indo-Pacific allies and partners in ways that strengthen peace and security across the region, including by operating together like never before. Key examples include:
• Japan and the ROK, cooperating more deeply than ever following this year’s historic Camp David Summit. In December, the three countries delivered on two key objectives from the summit – a multi-year, trilateral exercise plan and the full activation a real-time DPRK missile warning data-sharing mechanism.
• Australia and Japan, strengthening cooperation through participating in bilateral and trilateral exercises, and integrating Japan into existing U.S.-Australia force posture initiatives.
• India, modernizing the scope our military engagements including by incorporating advanced fighter aircraft and strategic bombers in our exercises, which strengthens interoperability and highlights shared efforts to promote stability and security in the Indo-Pacific.
• The Philippines, issuing the alliance’s first-ever Bilateral Defense Guidelines to chart a vision for defense cooperation across all domains.
• The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), including through capacity-building programs and training courses to support the incorporation of Women, Peace, and Security principles into regional security planning and operations, as well as an emerging leaders fellowship program for young civilian and defense leaders in the Indo-Pacific.
• Investing over $1.2 bn in security cooperation initiatives across the Indo-Pacific region, including one of the largest U.S. investments in history to bolster Indo-Pacific partners’ capability and capacity, maritime domain awareness, and resilience against coercion.
• Exercise BALIKATAN with the Philippines, which featured more than 17,600 service members from the Philippines, Australia, and the United States, and – for the first time ever – featured littoral live fire and cyber defense elements to support deeper interoperability.
• Exercise COPE THUNDER with the Philippines, which returned to the Philippines for the first time after more than thirty years, featuring participation by fifth-generation fighter jets.
• Exercise SUPER GARUDA SHIELD with Indonesia and over ten nations represented, which featured more than 4,000 service members participating in amphibious and airborne operations training, command and control simulation, academic exchanges, and professional development exercises.
• Exercise MALABAR with India, Japan, and Australia, hosted in Australia for the first time this year, which facilitated high-end training in anti-submarine exercises, communications, and air defense.
• Exercise PACIFIC VANGUARD with the ROK, Japan, and Australia, which strengthened interoperability at sea by bringing together over 2,000 naval forces from the United States and three of its closest allies.
(Source: U.S. DoD)
26 Dec 23. Increased US partnership with the Philippines coming in 2024. In 2023, the U.S. and the Philippines announced a historic pact that would open up several bases on the island archipelago nation to American forces for the first time in decades.
While the agreement does not allow the U.S. to permanently station troops in Philippine territory, several of the newly accessible bases abut the South China Sea to the north.
Plans are already underway to fortify the newly accessible bases.
The coming year will likely see Washington and Manila expand their cooperation and ready their respective navies to counter China’s assertions of ownership over parts of the South China Sea.
Old salts shouldn’t expect anything similar to the Navy’s former and massive presence at Subic Bay, which ended in 1992, but the new agreement marks a significant change forged largely out of maritime interests.
China and the Philippines, along with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, have been locked in increasingly tense territorial disputes over the busy and resource-rich South China Sea. Washington lays no territorial claims to the strategically important waters but has deployed its warships and aircraft for patrols that it says promote freedom of navigation and the rule of law. In turn, that military presence has infuriated Beijing.
At the announcement of the new deal in February, Austin thanked Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., whom he briefly met in Manila, for allowing the U.S. military to broaden its presence in the Philippines — Washington’s oldest treaty ally in Asia.
“I have always said that it seems to me that the future of the Philippines and, for that matter, the Asia-Pacific will always have to involve the United States, simply because those partnerships are so strong,” Marcos told Austin.
(Source: Defense News)
25 Dec 23. Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on U.S. Strikes in Iraq. Today, at President Biden’s direction, U.S. military forces conducted necessary and proportionate strikes on three facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups in Iraq. These precision strikes are a response to a series of attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-sponsored militias, including an attack by Iran-affiliated Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups on Erbil Air Base earlier today, and intended to disrupt and degrade capabilities of the Iran-aligned militia groups directly responsible.
Today’s attack led to three injuries to U.S. personnel, leaving one service member in critical condition. My prayers are with the brave Americans who were injured today.
And let me be clear – the President and I will not hesitate to take necessary action to defend the United States, our troops, and our interests. There is no higher priority. While we do not seek to escalate conflict in the region, we are committed and fully prepared to take further necessary measures to protect our people and our facilities. (Source: U.S. DoD)
24 Dec 23. Iran navy receives new cruise missiles amid growing regional tension. The Iranian navy has taken delivery of cruise missiles with a range of 1,000 km (621 miles) as well as reconnaissance helicopters, state media reported on Sunday, as the U.S. accused Iran of a drone attack on a chemical tanker in the Indian ocean.
“The Talaeiyeh cruise missile has a range of over 1,000 km and is a smart missile that can change targets mid-mission,” state media cited the head of Iran’s navy, Shahram Irani, as saying.
Reconnaissance helicopters, drones and marine cruise missiles were among new weapons added to the navy’s arsenal, Irani said, adding that “all of this equipment has been designed and produced by Iran’s military industry”.
Although Western military analysts say Iran sometimes exaggerates its capabilities, Iranian-made missiles and drones are a key element in Tehran’s military hardware. The U.S. Department of Defense said on Saturday that a drone sent from Iran struck a Liberian-flagged chemical tanker in the Indian ocean, an incident highlighting rising regional tensions and a new risk to shipping lanes in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent action in Gaza. Iran on Saturday denied U.S. accusations that it was involved in planning attacks by Yemen’s Tehran-aligned Houthi movement on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. (Source: Reuters)
21 Dec 23. Ryder Gives More Detail on How Operation Prosperity Guardian Will Work. Houthi attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea are attacks on the international community and the international community is coming together to defend against the missiles and drones aimed at their vessels, said Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder at a Pentagon news conference today.
The press secretary detailed how Operation Prosperity Guardian will work and called on the Houthis, an Iranian proxy group, to cease targeting international commerce.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced the operation during a trip to the Middle East that ended last night. The secretary met with leaders in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Israel during the trip. “The secretary emphasized the strong and enduring partnership between the United States and his key partner nations towards furthering our shared goals of security and stability throughout the Middle East region,” Ryder said.
Austin discussed the importance of freedom of navigation in international waterways and the threat the Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea pose to world commerce. Between 10 and 15 percent of global shipping flows through the Red Sea, “and these attacks are impacting global trade and commerce, negatively impacting the economies of nations around the world and costing commercial shipping firms bns of dollars,” Ryder said.
In Bahrain, Austin announced Operation Prosperity Guardian. The operation is a new multinational security operation under the umbrella the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea.
Austin further convened a virtual ministerial from Bahrain with ministers, chiefs of defense and senior representatives from more than 40 countries as well as representatives from the European Union and NATO to discuss the increased threat to maritime security in the Red Sea.
Austin used the forum to highlight the effects of the Houthi attacks and called on the representatives to act collectively. The nations must come together “to address this issue collectively, emphasizing that this is an international problem that requires an international response,” Ryder said.
There have been solid results: To date more than 20 nations have signed on to participate, Ryder said. “In the days ahead, the United States will continue to consult closely with our allies and partners who share the fundamental principle of freedom of navigation, and we expect to see the coalition continue to grow,” he said.
The operation is a global answer to an international issue and the United States will continue to “work with this coalition of the willing where countries will be able to contribute what they feel that they can,” Ryder said. Some of these contributions are military assets like ships and aircraft and other contributions include staff and other types of support.
I spoke with 🇫🇷 Minister @SebLecornu yesterday to discuss the ongoing threat posed by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. France and the U.S. are working in concert to address these reckless and illegal attacks and ensure the safety of mariners and global shipping.…
— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) December 21, 2023
“It’s very important to understand that the Houthis aren’t attacking just one country, they’re really attacking the international community,” Ryder said. “They are attacking the economic well-being and prosperity of nations around the world. So in effect, they really become bandits along the international highway that is the Red Sea.”
To further this analogy, the forces assigned to Operation Prosperity Guardian, will serve the highway patrol in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden “to respond to and assist as necessary commercial vessels that are transiting this vital international waterway,” the general said. “It’s a defensive coalition meant to reassure global shipping and mariners that the international community is there to help with safe passage.”
The area is large, roughly the distance between Boston and Washington, D.C., and the operation will work to assure safe passage all along the way.
“Last thing I’d say on this is that the Houthis need to stop these attacks, and they need to stop them now,” Ryder said. “That’s clear and simple. They really need to ask themselves if they’ve bitten off more than they can chew, when it comes to taking on the entire international community and negatively impacting bns and bns, bns of dollars in global trade, economic prosperity and international law.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
21 Dec 23. Brown Speaks With Chinese Counterpart. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr. held talks today with his Chinese military counterpart, People’s Liberation Army Gen. Liu Zhenli, for the first time since Brown became chairman.
The two leaders discussed a range of global and regional security issues as Brown reaffirmed the importance of maintaining open lines of military-to-military communications, according to a summary of the video teleconference.
“Gen. Brown discussed the importance of working together to responsibly manage competition, avoid miscalculations, and maintain open and direct lines of communication,” the summary reads. “Gen. Brown reiterated the importance of the People’s Liberation Army engaging in substantive dialogue to reduce the likelihood of misunderstandings.”
The last talks between U.S. and Chinese counterparts at this level occurred in July 2022.
Defense officials have repeatedly raised concerns over China’s lack of communication with U.S. military leaders, noting that Beijing has consistently denied or ignored U.S. requests for defense engagements at multiple levels.
Those concerns have been amplified as U.S. officials observe increasingly provocative and risky behavior on the part of China’s military.
Defense officials have noted a steep rise in China’s risky and aggressive intercepts of U.S. aircraft operating in international airspace in accordance with international law.
According to the most recent China Military Power Report, the U.S. has documented more than 180 coercive and risky air intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the region between 2021 and 2023.
That is more risky intercepts in the past two years than in the past decade, according to the report.
President Joe Biden secured China’s agreement to return to military-to-military talks last month following his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders’ Meeting in San Francisco.
The two presidents also discussed resuming bilateral efforts to combat global illicit drug manufacturing and trafficking, including fentanyl. They also discussed the need to address the risks of advanced artificial intelligence systems and improve artificial intelligence safety.
In previewing Thursday’s call, senior defense officials said the initial talks between Brown and his counterpart are an “important step” but added that there is still more work to do to ensure open and reliable lines of communications between U.S. and Chinese military leaders.
“These are the kinds of discussions that we need to have to try to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation,” one official said. “Having those open channels of communication, obviously, is a key part of that.”
(Source: U.S. DoD)
21 Dec 23. Japan eases arms export curbs to send Patriot missiles to US. Japan plans to ease weapons exports curbs to allow several dozen domestically-produced Patriot air defence missiles to be shipped to the US, a move that will help Washington step up critical supplies to Ukraine. Tokyo is also considering exporting to the UK 155mm artillery shells that it makes under licence from BAE Systems, according to two people with direct knowledge of the discussions, a plan also intended indirectly to aid Ukraine. The arms exports would be permitted by a relaxation of Japan’s strict guidelines on arms deals that the government plans to announce on Friday. The relaxation is part of a more proactive defence policy that Japan adopted after it increased military spending plans last year. The first change in the arms guidelines in almost a decade will not allow Japan to export military equipment directly to Ukraine. Instead, it will enable equipment to be exported to a country that provided the licence under which it was manufactured. Under existing rules, Tokyo can only export licensed components rather than entire systems. The people familiar with the discussions said that for several months, Washington had been asking Japan to allow the export of Patriot missiles manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries under licence from US defence contractors Lockheed Martin and RTX, formerly Raytheon Technologies. The exports would free up US stocks earmarked for the Indo-Pacific to be sent to Ukraine instead. The Patriot air defence system is one of the most advanced weapons supplied to Kyiv by Washington. The plans by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration come as the US Congress has repeatedly failed to approve a $60bn aid package for Ukraine proposed by the White House. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, visited Washington this month in an effort to win more funding, but was rebuffed by Republicans. “Japan has been the steadfast ally in the most critical moment for the US,” said one US government official. Tokyo has said it will acquire hundreds of US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles from the fiscal year starting in April 2025, a year ahead of schedule. Japan in 2014 overturned a longstanding ban on arms exports imposed under the pacifist constitution adopted after the second world war. But the remaining restrictions and long absence from global markets mean the country has struggled to establish a meaningful weapons business. Industry executives had been hopeful that Japan’s new fighter jet joint development programme with the UK and Italy would provide an opportunity for Tokyo to further ease export curbs and give its defence companies more access to foreign markets. But relaxation beyond the approval for licensed equipment has been opposed by Komeito, the ruling Liberal Democratic party’s coalition partner, which draws its support from Buddhist voters. The parties plan to continue discussions next year on a broader revision of the rules that would apply to the trilateral fighter jet programme. Because of the political sensitivity of any broader relaxation, US officials including ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel have prioritised export clearance for the Patriot missiles. President Joe Biden raised the issue with Kishida at a trilateral summit with South Korea at Camp David in August and during a meeting with the Japanese prime minister in San Francisco last month. (Source: FT.com)
21 Dec 23. Red Sea attacks: US spends big shooting down Houthi drones.
United States is attempting to stop crisis in the Red Sea from escalating into a regional war that could drag Saudi Arabia and Iran into Middle East conflict.
More military firepower has been deployed by America in the past few weeks in the Red Sea than at any time in the past few decades, sources at the Pentagon have told The Times.
The United States is attempting to stop the crisis in the Red Sea from escalating into a full-blown regional war that could drag Saudi Arabia and Iran into the conflict.
The US has spent tens of ms in the past fortnight to block attempts by the Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen from provoking other players in the Middle East.
The USS Dwight D Eisenhower carrier strike group, now in the Gulf of Aden, and USS Laboon, an extra guided-missile destroyer which has just arrived in the Red Sea, will also play key roles if there is any decision by President Biden to launch retaliatory attacks on Houthi targets.
While the US is shooting down Houthi drones fired at Israel to avenge its war against Hamas, the Pentagon insists that the US is not engaged in armed conflict with the Houthis. But Washington has been trying to shoot down Houthi drones and missiles to prevent them hitting commercial shipping.
The cost of the defensive action is spiralling. While the Houthis are launching drones that will have cost $1,000-$2,000 each, the US navy warships engaged in knocking them out of the sky are believed to have fired, among other weapon systems, the short-range, anti-ballistic missile weapon, called Standard SM-3 which cost more than $11m each.
The costs are being absorbed because the US knows the alternative, a much wider war, would require significantly increased funding from a budget under strain from backing Israel and Ukraine in their wars.
In recent weeks, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal have become such a danger zone for container ships and other merchant vessels that all the major shipping lines have had to reroute around Africa.
Alternative transit options have been reduced because of the continuing drought conditions affecting water levels in the Panama Canal.
The US Navy has three destroyers close to the Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. They are the USS Carney, USS Mason and USS Thomas Hudner. All of them have intercepted cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and large numbers of Iranian-made Shahed armed drones.
At the weekend, USS Carney shot down 14 drones launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
The US announced the establishment of a new international maritime force on Tuesday to protect ships transiting the Red Sea.
Under Operation Prosperity Guardian, up to 19 nations are expected to be involved in sending ships. Bahrain, host nation of the US fifth fleet, has so far been identified as the only country joining the new force from the Gulf nations. (Source: The Times)
20 Dec 23. RoK’s Arms Exports Amount to Nearly $14bn in 2023. South Korea’s arms exports in 2023 decreased from a record high last year, but the number of importers rose thanks to robust demand for advanced Korean weapons, the defense ministry said Wednesday.
South Korean firms signed weapons deals worth nearly $14bn this year, a defense ministry official said, without providing a specific amount as the official data is not yet available.
This year’s estimated figure was down from a record high of $17.3bn last year, which was helped by mega deals in Poland, which accounted for 72 percent of the total.
Last year, Poland signed $13bn worth of deals with Korean firms to buy K-2 tanks, K-9 self-propelled howitzers, FA-50 light attack aircraft and K-239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers to bolster its defenses amid the Russia-Ukraine war.
The number of importers tripled to 12 and the types of weapons systems doubled to 12 this year, according to the ministry.
Earlier this month, Hanwha Aerospace cinched a $2.4bn contract to sell 129 Redback infantry fighting vehicles to Australia. In February, Korea Aerospace Industries struck a $920m contract to sell 18 FA-50 light attack aircraft to Malaysia.
Seoul officials anticipated the amount to break the previous record to over $20 bn next year when the second round of weapons deals with Poland are finalized, with negotiations currently under way. South Korea aims to carve out a 5 percent share of the global arms export market by 2027 to become the world’s fourth-largest defense exporter. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Yonhap News Agency)
19 Dec 23. Austin Lauds Key Partnerships in Middle East. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today praised the strong defense ties between the U.S. and Qatar as he met with senior Qatari leaders at Al Udeid Air Base in the Gulf nation.
As part of his multiday trip through the Middle East, the secretary held separate meetings with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who also serves as minister of foreign affairs, and Deputy Prime Minister Khalid bin Mohammed Al Attiyah, who also serves as minister of state for defense affairs. During those meetings, Austin underscored the United States’ commitment to the strategic defense relationship.
According to a summary of the discussions, the secretary thanked both leaders for “Qatar’s critical efforts to secure the release of 110 hostages held by Hamas and expressed hope that Hamas will release the remaining hostages.”
He reiterated the need for regional de-escalation and underscored that the increase in U.S. military posture is a message to state and nonstate actors seeking to escalate, according to the summary.
In remarks ahead of his meeting with the Qatari defense minister, Austin expressed gratitude for his counterpart’s “tireless coordination” and continued support for strengthening the defense relationship as he welcomed new investments by Qatar at Al Udeid Air Base— a critical, regional node for U.S. troops operating in the Middle East.
“I especially wanted to be here today to share that Qatar and the United States will formally takes steps forward to expand and reinforce our bilateral defense relationship,” Austin said. “We’ll do this through Qatar’s commitment to contribute significant resources to increase capabilities here at Al Udeid Air Base, and that will support both of our forces for years to come.”
He said the presence of U.S. troops at the base “allows the United States to support a range of critical missions in the region and respond to challenges to our shared security.”
“Our robust presence here makes our defense partnership even stronger,” Austin said.
Qatar, which was recently designated as a major non-NATO ally has been a critical regional partner for the U.S. That partnership remains unwavering, Austin said.
“In times of crisis, Qatar answers our call,” Austin said, noting Qatar’s assistance in securing hostages held by Hamas and, earlier this year, its crucial role in the release of five American citizens from imprisonment in Iran.
Austin also noted Qatar’s assistance in 2021 as the U.S. military completed the evacuation to safety of more than 124,000 people from Afghanistan — one of the largest air lifts on record.
“These are just a few reasons why the department welcomes this step forward,” he said. “It’s a milestone for our defense partnership. We look forward to doing more together and to make this region more stable and secure.”
Austin also traveled to Manama, Bahrain, for meetings today with Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa; Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa; and Commander in Chief of Bahrain’s Defense Force Sheikh Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa.
Austin thanked the leaders for hosting U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, headquartered in Manama and for Bahrain’s “leadership in regional integration and maritime security efforts,” according to a summary of the meeting.
The meeting follows Austin’s Monday announcement of a new multinational maritime security initiative in response to the recent escalation in Houthi attacks originating from Yemen. The attacks have threatened the flow of commerce and endangered mariners operating in the Red Sea.
The security initiative—Operation Prosperity Garden—brings together forces from the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain to address the challenges in the region and ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
The forces will operate under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of Task Force 153, a U.S. Navy-led initiative focused on maritime security in the Red Sea.
“Countries that seek to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation must come together to tackle the challenge posed by this nonstate actor launching ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles at merchant vessels from many nations lawfully transiting international waters,” Austin said in a statement announcing the initiative.
“This is an international challenge that demands collective action,” he said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
19 Dec 23. United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statement. Today, the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea announce that they have fully activated a real-time DPRK missile warning data sharing mechanism and jointly established a multi-year trilateral exercise plan. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, Minister of Defense Kihara Minoru, and Minister of National Defense Shin Wonsik recently agreed to finalize the two initiatives by the end of 2023 at the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Ministerial Meeting in November.
Following the historic 2023 Camp David Summit and the 2022 Phnom Penh Summit, today’s milestones will further advance a new era of trilateral security cooperation under the leadership of President Biden, Prime Minister Kishida, and President Yoon.
Following recent tests that verified the full operational capability of the DPRK missile warning data sharing mechanism, the mechanism is now active. The three countries established this mechanism to improve their ability to ensure the safety of their peoples by trilaterally detecting and assessing missiles launched by the DPRK in real-time.
Additionally, the three countries have established a multi-year trilateral exercise plan that will begin in early 2024. The three countries have made significant progress on improving the quality and quantity of their exercises over the past year, and this plan will regularize trilateral exercises and execute them more systematically and efficiently moving forward.
These achievements and other ongoing efforts demonstrate the unprecedented depth, scale, and scope of trilateral security cooperation by the United States, the Republic of Korea, and Japan. The three countries will continue to build upon their cooperation to respond to regional challenges and ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific, and beyond. (Source: U.S. DoD)
19 Dec 23. Director Joint Warfare visit strengthens UK-Malaysia partnership. RAdm Andrew Betton visits Malaysian Joint HQ and meets Five Powers Defence Arrangements staff. Strategic Command’s Director Joint Warfare, Rear Admiral Andrew Betton, has visited the Malaysian Joint Headquarters with the British Defence Attaché Captain Tony Stockbridge to help maintain and develop the bilateral relationship with Malaysia and our key partners in the Five Powers Defence Arrangements (FPDA). This important defence partnership has sustained close military ties for over 50 years between Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and the UK.
With a Headquarters in Butterworth in north-western Malaysia, the FDPA’s Integrated Area Defence System permanent staff is formed by personnel from all five nations, including six UK officers. Admiral Betton visited the HQ, meeting with UK staff and the current Commander, Air Vice Marshal Geoffrey Harland Royal Australian Air Force alongside his successor, Air Vice Marshal Nathan Christie. AVM Harland reflected on the vital contribution of the UK permanent staff, as well as those augmentees and force elements deployed to support FPDA activities, especially during the annual Exercise BERSAMA LIMA.
Joint activity including combat air simulations, jungle warfare training, beach landings and coordinated naval gunfire support.
While in Malaysia, Admiral Betton also attended the opening of a new memorial to mark the momentous sinking of HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales off the coast of Malaya on 10 Dec 1941 alongside the Agong (King) of Malaysia.
The striking monument, which incorporates the kedge anchor from one of the ships, looks out over the South China Sea from Kuantan on the east coast, commemorating the 840 souls who went down with their ships following a devastating air attack.
In the presence of the Agong, Admiral Betton led the commemoration, supporting the British High Commissioner Ailsa Terry and an honour guard from HMS Spey. The ceremony was also attended by the Malaysian Chief of Defence Staff, General Tan Sri Dato’ Sri Hj Affendi bin Buang, accompanied by all of the Service Chiefs. The star of the show, however, was undoubtedly Mrs Henrietta Wood, the granddaughter of Captain John Leach (Prince of Wales) who was lost in the action but survived by his son, Henrietta’s father, Midshipman Henry Leach, who remained in Singapore as the ships put to sea. The loss of his father spurred Henry towards an extraordinary career marked by unwavering self-sacrifice and sense of duty, culminating in his appointment as First Sea Lord during the Falklands War, as Admiral of the Fleet Sir Henry Leach. Sir Henry died in 2011, but would have celebrated his 100th birthday last month. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
19 Dec 23. Moldovan PM says anti-aircraft system needed to counter Russia. Prime Minister Dorin Recean said on Monday that Moldova needed an upgraded anti-aircraft defence system to counter threats from Russia heightened by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, its eastern neighbour. Recean was speaking to a television interviewer three days after Moldova’s parliament approved a new security strategy identifying Moscow as the biggest security threat to the country and its pro-European government.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu has denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and accused the Kremlin of plotting to oust her.
The European Union last week agreed to start talks on expanding its membership to both Moldova and Ukraine. But, unlike Ukraine, Moldova has neutral status anchored in its constitution and is not seeking membership of the Atlantic Alliance.
Recean said Moldova intended, with the help of its EU and NATO allies, to acquire a modern air defence system to defend its airports and major infrastructure sites.
“If the Kremlin decides to attack us, just what are we going to do?” Recean told a TV8 interviewer. “Neutrality will not protect Moldova.”
Recean said developed countries “invest in their security to ensure that their citizens and businesses feel safe. If they don’t have that, people leave and take their capital with them. And that is what is now happening in Moldova.”
Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, currently has only a rudimentary air defence system, a remnant of its time as a Soviet republic.
Ukraine has identified improved air defences as a critical element in countering what is expected to be a new wave of air strikes on its energy and other infrastructure sites — as occurred repeatedly last winter.
Recean repeated the main thesis of the new security strategy in singling out Russia as the biggest threat facing his country.
“The threat to our security is the Kremlin, the Russian Federation and how it relates to our neighbours and to us,” he told TV8.
He noted that Russia had halted imports of Moldova’s key farm goods this month and he cited a decree signed on Monday by Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin simplifying procedures for Moldovans to become Russian citizens. This, he said was “a bid to recruit cannon fodder for its war in Ukraine”. (Source: Reuters)
17 Dec 23. Russia loads new intercontinental ballistic missile into silo south of Moscow. Russian rocket forces have loaded a new Yars intercontinental ballistic missile into a silo at the Kozelsk base in the Kaluga region, southwest of Moscow, the defence ministry said.
The 23-metre long RS-24 (Yars) missile is designed to carry multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), which allow the missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads at different targets.
“In the Kozelsky compound, Strategic Missile Forces loaded a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile into a silo launcher,” the defence ministry said.
The defence ministry released a clip of the giant missile being transported to a silo and loaded into a shaft. It accompanied the video with pounding rock music.
Russia has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, closely followed by the United States. Together, Russia and the United States control more than 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.
Russia has about 5,889 nuclear warheads while the United States has about 5,244, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Of those, Russia and the United States each have about 1,670 strategic nuclear warheads deployed. (Source: Reuters)
19 Dec 23. Troops on South Korean side re-arm at border village amid tensions with North. International troops stationed on the South Korean side of the truce village of Panmunjom on the border with North Korea who had been unarmed can resume carrying guns, the United Nations Command (UNC) said on Tuesday.
The U.S.-led UNC is a multinational military force and oversees affairs in the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) between the two Koreas, which remain technically at war.
Panmunjom, which has been a popular tourist destination, is known formally as the Joint Security Area (JSA) – a cluster of buildings that has hosted inter-Korean talks and where troops from both sides stand almost face to face.
The decision this month to allow UNC troops to carry guns came after North Korean soldiers of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) had resumed “an armed security posture” in the area, said Colonel Isaac Taylor, the spokesperson for the UNC.
Taylor said the move was aimed at protecting both civilian and military personnel in the border area.
“This action is being taken out of an abundance of caution, but UNC has also informed the ROK (South Korea) government and KPA of its position that a disarmed JSA is safer and more peaceful for the Korean Peninsula,” Taylor said.
The two Koreas had agreed not to arm their troops on the JSA under a 2018 inter-Korean military pact, but North Korean troops have been reported to be carrying guns since November after a partial unravelling of the agreement.
Last month, South Korea suspended part of the pact aimed at de-escalating border tensions in a protest over Pyongyang’s launch of a spy satellite.
North Korea responded by scrapping the accord and pledging to deploy stronger armed forces and new weapons on the border.
Taking a tour to the DMZ has been a popular activity for tourists looking to get a glimpse of the reclusive authoritarian state, but the trips to the JSA were suspended after a U.S. soldier dashed across the border in July.
South Korea said some JSA tours restarted last month, though media reports said they had been suspended again due to increased tensions with the North. (Source: Reuters)
19 Dec 23. UK statement on fighting in Sudan. The FCDO has issued a statement on the escalation of violence in Sudan. A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development spokesperson said: “The past week has seen an escalation of violence in Gezira State, Sudan, as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have advanced towards Wad Medani. The town had been a safe haven for displaced people and an important hub for the delivery of essential humanitarian aid. We urge the RSF to cease their attacks and we condemn reports of the arbitrary arrests of civilians in Wad Medani carried out by the Sudanese Armed Forces. We are very concerned by the situation in El Fasher, following reports of renewed fighting on December 16. We call on both sides to comply with their obligations under international law, notably with regard to the protection of civilians, and urge them to refrain from actions that will exacerbate the conflict and further divide Sudan along ethnic lines. The only way to sustainable peace is through a civilian-led and inclusive peace process and we commend the recent efforts by regional partners, led by The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), to bring the parties together.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
19 Dec 23. North Korea says Hwasong-18 ICBM test was response to US hostility.
• Summary
• State media says North Korean leader witnessed ICBM launch
• ICBM drill was to show “overwhelming counteraction” -KCNAU.N. Security Council due to meet to discuss launch
• U.S., Japan, S.Korea activate system to monitor North’s launches
North Korea said on Tuesday it had tested the isolated state’s newest ICBM on Monday to gauge the war readiness of its nuclear force against mounting U.S. hostility, as Washington and its allies began operating a real-time missile data sharing system.
North Korean state media said leader Kim Jong Un watched Monday’s launch of the Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a site east of the capital, Pyongyang. The missile reached an altitude of 6,518 km (4,050 miles), flying 1,002 km and accurately hitting the intended target, an empty patch of sea, state media said.
Kim said the launch sends “a clear signal to the hostile forces, who have fanned up their reckless military confrontation hysteria” against the North, state news agency KCNA reported.
Kim said the drill “displayed the DPRK’s will for toughest counteraction and its overwhelming strength”. DPRK is short for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
He presented “some new important tasks for accelerating the development of the DPRK’s nuclear strategic forces”, KCNA said, without elaborating.
South Korea and Japan said that based on Monday’s flight data, the North had fired an ICBM with the range to hit anywhere in the United States. The launch was condemned by South Korea, Japan and the United States as a flagrant violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.
On the same day, China, a Security Council permanent member that has previously approved sanctions against Pyongyang, held a high-level meeting with North Korea in Beijing, discussing cooperation and issues of “common concern” in “a friendly atmosphere,” the countries’ state media said.
The U.N. Security Council is due to meet on Tuesday at the request of the United States and other countries to discuss the launch.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has taken a hard line against Pyongyang since taking office last year, said Kim Jong Un’s regime “will come to realise provocative actions will only bring greater pain to itself”.
MISSILE DETECTION SYSTEM
In a joint announcement on Tuesday, South Korea, Japan and the United States said they had activated a system to detect and assess North Korea’s missile launches in real-time and established a multi-year trilateral military exercise plan.
Separately, national security officials of the three countries held a video conference about curbing North Korea’s illicit cyber activities, which may be channelling funds to its weapons programs, Yoon’s office said.
On Sunday, the North condemned a U.S. military show of force, including the arrival of an aircraft carrier and nuclear-powered submarine in South Korea, as “war” moves, and fired a short-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast.
South Korea said Monday’s missile launch was a solid-fuel Hwasong-18. It flew in a sharply lofted trajectory and landed in the sea west of Japan’s Hokkaido island.
North Korea’s state media published what it said were photographs of the launch, showing the missile blasting off from a snow-covered field trailing a plume of smoke.
North Korea’s description of a “launching drill” was its first such characterisation for an ICBM and showed it went beyond developmental testing to assess counteraction capabilities, Jenny Town, director of the Washington-based 38 North project, said on X.
The ICBM’s lofted trajectory and 74-minute flight time are compatible with an operational range of up to 15,000 km (9,300 miles) if launched at a flatter, standard trajectory, which puts all of the mainland United States within reach, Japanese defence officials said.
North Korea also criticised a high-level meeting between U.S. and South Korean officials last week where upgraded responses to nuclear threats and joint military drills were discussed.
The United States continued to demonstrate a confrontational attitude by bringing in nuclear-powered submarines, strategic bombers and an aircraft carrier near the Korean peninsula, it said.
The U.S. nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Missouri arrived in the South Korean port of Busan on Sunday, the latest U.S. strategic military asset to be deployed as part of Washington’s pact with Seoul to boost defence readiness.
The United States and South Korea have increased the intensity of joint military drills against threats from the North, which has tested a range of ballistic missiles and in November launched its first military spy satellite. (Source: Reuters)
18 Dec 23. Congo (DRC): New rebel alliance highlights increased risk of conflict escalation in east. On 15 December, several Congolese politicians and armed groups, including the M23 rebel group, launched the Congo River Alliance in Nairobi (Kenya). A key figure within the group, Corneille Nangaa, a former election commission chief, stated that the alliance is needed to ensure order in eastern Congo (DRC) due to the weakness of the state. The government in Kinshasa subsequently recalled its envoys from Kenya and Tanzania, the latter being the headquarters of the East African Community (EAC). However, the Kenyan authorities have since sought to mitigate the diplomatic fallout by condemning the M23 group. The formation of the new bloc will likely undermine the prospects for the maintenance of the ceasefire between the government and M23, which was extended for two weeks on 14 December. This will increase the risk of an escalation in the conflict in Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu provinces in the coming weeks, disrupting supply chains feeding major cities such as Goma and elevating threats to local staff. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Dec 23. Chad: Constitutional referendum will likely pass, though lack of legitimacy will raise risk of unrest. On 17 December, Chadians voted in a constitutional referendum, marking a key step towards a return to civilian rule in 2024. This follows the suspension of constitutional order after the death of the former president, Idriss Deby, in April 2021. Reports indicate there was a low voter turnout amid an opposition boycott driven by claims the constitutional referendum will act as a rubber stamp for extending the tenure of the transitional president, Mahamat Deby. We assess that the new constitution will almost certainly be approved, though the low turnout will likely undermine its legitimacy, particularly in the view of the opposition. As such, the announcement of the results by 24 December and the validation of the vote by the Supreme Court on 28 December will likely act as flashpoints for protests, particularly in the capital N’djamena. Such demonstrations will likely be violently repressed by the security forces. (Source: Sibylline)
18 Dec 23. Moldova-Russia: Military drills will drive regional tensions, risk of Russian destabilisation. On 17 December, Moldova started military exercises near the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria. Moldova’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that the drills will last until 22 December. The drills come after the country’s parliament adopted a new National Security Strategy which aligns with European and NATO strategic thinking (and which identifies Russia as the main threat to the country’s security). The adoption of the text reflects Chișinău’s pro-EU government’s commitment to align with the West. The EU’s decision to open accession talks on 15 December will highly likely further encourage Chișinău to pursue pro-Western and anti-Russian policies. The military drills will likely drive regional tensions with Russia and Transnistria, where about 1,000 Russian peacekeeping troops are stationed. Escalatory risks nevertheless remain low at present, though Chișinău’s growing rapprochement with the West will sustain risks of Russian destabilisation attempts ahead of presidential elections in the autumn of 2024. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Dec 23. Somalia: Red Sea instability will likely sustain elevated threats to maritime security. On 19 December, the EU’s maritime security force identified that the hijacked Maltese-owned merchant ship ‘Reun’ was in Somali waters. Unidentified assailants hijacked the ship off the coast of the Yemeni island of Socotra on 14 December. EU maritime forces are monitoring the ship’s activity. The Pentagon (US) claimed that Somali pirates were responsible for the hijacking of a commercial ship off Yemen’s coast in November, indicating that Somali pirates are likely also responsible for the latest incident. These hijackings follow a decline in Somali piracy activity, with the last hijacking before the November incident recorded in 2017. While we assess that the recent incidents do not represent an escalation in the maritime risk environment, there is a realistic possibility that piracy groups are capitalising on instability posed by an uptick in Yemen-based Houthi rebel attacks targeting ships in the Red Sea. The Somali authorities have intensified patrols in their waters to address the threat. However, foreign-owned maritime operations will likely continue to face elevated risks as the Israel-Hamas war sustains insecurity in the Red Sea. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Dec 23. New Zealand: Increased military co-operation with Western partners will likely drive regional tensions. Earlier on 20 December, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated that he is ‘exploring’ options to join elements of the AUKUS pact. Australia, the UK and the US signed this pact in 2021 with the aim of building nuclear-powered submarines for Australia. Luxon stated that while New Zealand’s nuclear-free position is ‘non-negotiable’, it would consider joining ‘Pillar 2’ of AUKUS, which involves developing advanced capabilities such as electronic warfare (EW) and artificial intelligence (AI), while also improving military interoperability. AUKUS members would likely accept an application by Wellington to join. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated on 20 December that he wants to increase co-operation with Wellington. New Zealand’s centre-right government has signalled that it intends to prioritise its diplomatic and military ties with Australia and the US rather than its economic ties with China. New Zealand’s accession to AUKUS would drive regional tensions, though China would be unlikely to impose retaliatory economic measures.
21 Dec 23. DRC: Electoral delays will likely drive opposition-led protests, risk of clashes with security forces. On 20 December, five opposition candidates rejected the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI)’s decision to extend the general election vote by a day, calling for an election re-run. CENI extended polling for hundreds of polling stations that could not open on election day (20 December). Voting was delayed due to logistical issues, including malfunctioning electronic voting systems and delays in election kit deliveries; violence around some polling stations, including the capital Kinshasa, also caused delays. The opposition alleges that delays are further evidence of electoral fraud and mismanagement. CENI is unlikely to accept an election re-run, undermining the legitimacy of President Felix Tshisekedi’s likely re-election, and in turn likely driving post-election protests in Kinshasa; CENI and government offices will likely be targeted. Protests are also likely in eastern opposition strongholds such as Lubumbashi (Haut-Katanga province) and Goma (North Kivu province). Security forces will almost certainly use excessive dispersal measures, elevating bystander risks
(Source: Sibylline)
21 Dec 23. Turkey-Iraq: New Turkish airstrikes against PKK targets in Northern Iraq; aerial campaign likely to continue throughout 2024. On 21 December, Turkish warplanes carried out a new round of airstrikes against the Kurdistan Workers Party’s (PKK) positions in northern Iraq’s Hakourk area and Gara and Qandil mountains (all Kurdistan autonomous region). The airstrikes were conducted hours after a meeting between Turkish and Iraqi security officials in the Turkish capital Ankara, where both parties re-asserted their stance on the need to expel the PKK from Iraq. It is highly likely that the Turkish airstrike campaign against the PKK will continue, and even intensify, throughout 2024 in co-ordination with Baghdad. A limited Turkish ground operation similar to the 2021 incursion, likely requiring Baghdad’s permission, remains a realistic possibility. Baghdad’s support for a Turkish ground operation into the Kurdistan region would likely further raise tensions around the February 2024 Kurdistan parliamentary elections, elevating unrest risks. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Dec 23. China-US: Resumption of bilateral military dialogue eases risk of accidental escalation. On 21 December, US General CQ Brown, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with his Chinese counterpart General Liu Zhenli via video conference. This is reportedly the first senior military communication between Washington and Beijing since August 2022. China had suspended such dialogue following former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan that month. This meeting comes amid efforts in 2023 by both sides to stabilise bilateral ties, which have worsened in recent years. In November, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco; they agreed to resume military dialogue and co-operate on artificial intelligence and cracking down on fentanyl production. A resumption of inter-military dialogue will likely slightly reduce the risk of unintended military escalation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. However, regional tensions remain susceptible to a sudden deterioration, particularly ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in Taiwan and the US in 2024. (Source: Sibylline)
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